Pre-budget economic analysis Key facts and figures

Pre-budget economic analysis Key facts and figures June 2008 Advisory

Table of Contents Page 1 Macro-economic overview 1 2 External sector 10 3 Government finance 16 Appendix 1 - Glossary 21

Section 1 Macro-economic overview Advisory

Section 1 - Macro-economic overview Growth GDP grew by an estimated 5.4% compared to 5.0% in 2006. Exclusive of sugar, the growth rate was 6.1% against 5.4% in 2006. Chart 1: Growth rate (Source: CSO) (Rs million) 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2.3% 9.3% Gross Domestic Product at basic prices Growth rate 5.6% 2.0% 4.4% 4.8% 5.0% 2.2% 5.4% 6.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 The economy was driven by the tertiary sector, namely by activities in hotels and restaurants, transport, storage and communications, real estate, renting and business activities and financial intermediation. 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% (%) According to the CSO, the contribution of the tertiary sector to the 5.4% growth of GDP in 2007 is estimated at around 4.3 percentage points. Some sectors performed well while others faced severe problems. The performances of the main industry groups in 2007 were as follows: Construction sector: An accelerated growth of 15.2% was recorded, mainly due to the construction and renovation of hotels, projects under the Integrated Resort Scheme (IRS) and expansion of textile and wearing apparel industries. Hotels and restaurants: Based on 906,971 tourist arrivals during 2007, the industry rebounded by 14.0%, after a low growth of 3.5% in 2006 due to the spread of chikungunya. For the first three months of calendar year 2008, the total earnings was estimated at MUR 11.9 billions. Financial intermediation: A growth of 7.5% was registered as a result of growths of 5.1%, 7.9% and 11.2% in insurance, banks and other financial intermediation activities respectively. Manufacturing sector: A further expansion of 2.2% after a growth of 4.0% in 2006 was noted. This was due to growths of 8.5% and 4.0% in the textile and food processing industries respectively that was partly offset by contraction of 3.1% in other manufacturing industries. Activities of Export Oriented Enterprises (EOE) comprising enterprises formerly operating with an export certificate and those export manufacturing enterprises holding a registration certificate issued by the Board of Investment grew by 8.0% compared to 4.6% in 2006. 2

Section 1 - Macro-economic overview Growth Wholesale and retail trade sector: Distribution activities grew by a lower rate of 4.4% compared to 5.4% in 2006. Sugar: The sector contracted by 13.6%, based on a sugar production of 435,972 tonnes compared to 504,857 tonnes in 2006. The chart below shows the sectoral growth rates for the past three years. Chart 2: Sectoral Growth (Source: CSO) 2005 2006 2007 4.6% 8.5% 15.2% 14.0% 7.5% 7.7% 7.8% 7.0% 7.2% 5.6% 5.6% 5.4% 5.4% 4.1% 5.2% 3.5% 4.4% 0.0% Sugar -2.9% -9.2% E.P.Z Tourism Financial services Transport & communications Manufacturing (other than EPZ) Construction -3.1% -5.2% Retain & distribution -12.3% -13.6% 3

Section 1 - Macro-economic overview Growth GDP growth should maintain momentum in 2008 for which projections are rather optimistic. The Mauritian economy is projected to expand by another 6.0% in 2008. On the basis of information gathered on the key indicators and on recent past trends, sectorwise growth rate is projected to be as follows for 2008: Financial intermediation is expected to grow by 7.6% as a result of growths of 5.2%, 7.9% and 11.6% for insurance, banks and other financial intermediation activities respectively. Construction sector: The sector is expected to grow by around 7.0%, mainly attributable to construction and renovation of hotels, and ongoing projects under IRS. Wholesale and retail trade: The sector is expected to grow at the rate of 5.3%, higher than the 2007 figure of 4.4%. Manufacturing sector: The manufacturing sector is expected to grow by 4.1% compared to 2.2% in 2007.The higher growth will be the result of a 3.4% growth in Food, 4.6% in Textiles, together with a rebound of 2.8% in enterprises manufacturing for the local market. Within the manufacturing sector, the EOE are expected to grow by 6.0% compared to 8.0% in 2007. Output of the EOE is forecasted at around Rs. 47 billion in 2008 compared to Rs. 43 billion in 2007. Hotels and restaurants: Based on information gathered from the main stakeholders of this sector, 975,000 tourists arrivals are expected for 2008. The sector is expected t to expand by 7.1% lower than the growth of 14.0% registered in 2007. Tourists receipts for 2008 are forecasted at around Rs.48 billion compared to around Rs. 41 billion in 2007. Sugar sector: a normal production of 520,000 tons of sugar is expected. This would result in a growth of 19.3% compared to -13.6% in 2007 when sugar production amounted to 435,972 tons. 4

Section 1 - Macro-economic overview Inflation As from July 2007, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated on the basis of an updated basket of goods and services derived from the 2006-07 Household Budget Survey. The rate of inflation for calendar year 2007 works out to 8.8% compared to 8.9% for calendar year 2006. Based on previous trend, the inflation rate for financial year 2007/08 is estimated at around 8.7% compared to 10.7% for the last financial year. Chart 3: Inflation rate (calendar year) (Source: CSO) 6.6% 6.8% 6.9% 4.2% 6.4% 5.4% 3.9% 4.7% 8.9% 4.9% 8.8% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 The evolution in prices of sub-industry groups is as follows: Change in prices Food and non-alcoholic beverages Restaurants and hotels Health Miscellaneous goods and services Alcoholic beverages and tobacco Clothing and footwear Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance Transport Recreation and culture Education Communication + 14.9% + 7.7% + 7.5% + 7.3% +6.1% +5.6% + 5.2% +4.8% + 4.1% + 1.9% + 1.1% - 0.4% Except for sub-index Communication, which declined by 0.4%, all the other sub-indices registered increases. The highest increases in prices were noted for Food and nonalcoholic beverages (14.9%) mainly due to higher prices of milk, vegetables, trader s rice, chicken, fish, and cooking oil. The sub-index for Restaurants and Hotels went up by 7.7%. This was mainly due to higher charges for food and drinks in bars and restaurants, higher prices of some prepared foods and higher rates for hotels and bungalows. 5

Section 1 - Macro-economic overview Employment In 2007, the average labour force stood at 548,900 among which 502,100 were employed, and the unemployment rate stood at 8.5%. The unemployment rate of the female labour force, which has historically been more affected than their male counterparts, stood at 14.4% in 2007 compared to 5.3% for males. Unemployment is much lower among the educated sections of the population. For example during the 4th quarter of 2007, the proportions of unemployed with Higher School Certificate (HSC) and tertiary education were respectively 5.9% and 5.2%. 22.7% of the unemployed had not reached the Certificate of Primary Education (CPE) level, and a further 34.9% did not possess the Cambridge School Certificate (SC). Chart 4: Employment and unemployment (Source: CSO) ('000) 600 500 400 300 6.5% Employment ('000) Unemployment ('000) Unemployment Rate (%) 7.7% 7.2% 6.8% 8.4% 9.6% 9.1% 8.5% 12% 10% 8% 6% (%) 200 4% 100 2% 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 0% 6

Section 1 - Macro-economic overview Savings and investment The savings rate, defined as the ratio of Gross National Saving (GNS) to GDP, has increased from 17.1% in 2006 to 21.3% in 2007. The CSO expects this rate to decrease slightly to 20.8% in 2008 The investment rate increased to 25.1% in 2007 from 24.3% in 2006. Investment in the economy should increase to 25.2% in 2008. Since 2004, the savings rate is below the investment rate. This result in increasing demand pressures on prices, adversely impacting on the current account of the balance of payments. Chart 5: Savings rate and investment rate (Source: CSO) 28.5% 27.6% 26.2% 25.8% 25.7% 23.5% 23.2% 22.6% Savings rate (% of GDP) 27.3% 22.1% 26.0% 22.7% 22.6% 21.6% 24.3% 21.3% 25.1% 21.3% 25.2% 20.8% Investment rate (% of GDP) 17.4% 17.1% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 7

Section 1 - Macro-economic overview Savings and investment Private sector investment rose further by 24.0% after the high growth of 15.1% in 2006. It would probably increase to reach Rs.56 billion in 2008 from the Rs.46 billion in 2007. The expected 12.5 % growth would be mostly attributable to high investment in commercial buildings, textile manufacturing industries, hotels and IRS projects. The public sector investment declined by 24.7% in 2007 as opposed to a high growth of 28.3% in 2006. Public sector investment is forecasted for 2008 at Rs.11 billion i.e 17.8% lower than in 2007. The share of private sector investment is expected to increase to 84.0% in 2008 from 78.2% in 2007. Chart 6: Public and private sector investment (Source: CSO) Private sector Public sector 27.4% 28.0% 34.2% 31.3% 31.2% 38.4% 30.7% 29.7% 31.7% 72.6% 70.3% 72.0% 68.7% 68.8% 69.3% 65.8% 68.3% 61.6% 21.8% 16.0% 78.2% 84.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 8

Section 1 - Macro-economic overview Interest rate In the New Framework for the Conduct of Monetary Policy applicable since December 2006, the Bank of Mauritius uses the Repo Rate instead of the Lombard Rate as the key policy rate to signal changes in its monetary policy stance. The Bank of Mauritius sets the Repo Rate and regulates the supply of reserve money such that the overnight interbank money market interest rates move close to the Repo Rate. The Repo Rate was set at 8.5% per annum on 18 December 2006. In 2007, the BOM changed the repo rate only once. On 30 June2007, the bank increased the Repo rate to 9.25 %. In 2008, the BOM has changed to Repo rate thrice: in February 2008: the Repo Rate was reduced to 9%; in March 2008, there was a further cut to 8.5%; and In May 2008 to 8%. The BOM followed this policy so as to contain inflation on the one hand and to mitigate the impact of the appreciation of the rupee on the other hand, which may further stretch the export oriented sector already operating in highly competitive markets. On 1 April 2008, the BOM announced operational changes in liquidity management. The BOM bills and the Government of Mauritius Treasury Bills will be auctioned separately. The BOM will also issue BOM Bills with maturities of 28 days and 56 days. As a transitional measure, The Special Deposit Facility introduced in November 2007 will continue. However, this facility will be henceforth conducted at 100 basis points below the Key Repo rate and the current maximum period of 14 days extended to 21 days. The corridor for the Key Repo Rate has been widened from +/- 50 basis points to +/- 125 basis points. An Overnight Facility against collateral at 150 basis points above the Key Repo Rate was introduced. Chart 7: Repo rate (Source: BOM) 8.50% 9.25% 9.25% 9.25% 9.00% 8.50% 8.00% 12/1/06 3/1/07 6/1/07 9/1/07 12/1/07 3/1/08 9

Section 2 External sector Advisory

Section 2 - External sector Exchange rate The Mauritian rupee has historically depreciated with respect to major currencies due to the fact, among others, that the country is an exportoriented economy. However, during the past 9 months, the rupee has appreciated against the main currencies. From July 2007 to April 2008, the Rupee has appreciated: by 23% with respect to the Pound Sterling (GBP); by 4.6% with respect to the Euro; and by 20.3% with respect to the US Dollar (USD). This has, in a way, contained inflationary pressures which are mostly the result of imported and operated through food and energy prices and their secondround effects. However, it was generally accepted that export oriented sectors could be vulnerable with an appreciating Rupee and jobs could be at risk. After the cut in the repo rate in early May, the rupee has started to depreciate against the major currencies. Chart 8: Exchange rate (Source: BoM) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 USD EURO GBP 0 30/04/2002 29/11/2002 30/06/2003 30/01/2004 31/08/2004 31/03/2005 31/10/2005 31/05/2006 29/12/2006 31/07/2007 29/02/2008 11

Section 2 - External sector External Trade Total imports for the year 2007 amounted to Rs.121 billion, showing an increase of 4.8% over 2006. Chart 9: Imports and exports (Source: BoM and CSO) Imports of Food and live animals for the year 2007 were valued at Rs.20 billion, i.e. 16.0% higher than the year 2006. The important bill of Mineral fuels, lubricants & related products stood at Rs.22 billion representing a rise of 14.8% compared to 2006. Machinery & transport equipment were valued at Rs.28 billion, 20.7% lower a result of decrease in the imports of cellular phones (Rs.-6 billion) and aircraft (Rs.-4 million). During the year 2007, imports from the Asian continent, our major supplier, amounted to Rs.62 billion with a share of 51.3% of total imports. We have noted a high increase in imports from India (+63.4%) which is explained by the fact that India became our main supplier of petroleum products since the last quarter of 2006. (Rs million) 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 Export Import Trade deficit 12,000 2,000-8,000-18,000-28,000-38,000 (Rs million) 20,000-48,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-58,000 12

Section 2 - External sector External Trade Total exports for the year 2007 stood at Rs.70 billion, indicating a 6.2% decrease over 2006. Exports of Food and live animals for the year 2007 went down by 4.0% to reach Rs.19 billion on account of a decrease of 17.2% in the exports of Sugar combined with an increase of 15.5% in Fish and fish preparations. It is worth pointing out that the total exports of Machinery and transport equipment dropped significantly from Rs.12 billion in the year 2006 to Rs.4 billion in 2007(-66.4%) as a result of a substantial fall in the re-exports of mobile phones to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Mauritius major export markets are the United Kingdom (33.8% of total exports) mainly consisting of exports of textile products and sugar, France (13.8%) and USA (7.5%). Chart 10: Distribution of exports - 2007 (Source: CSO) Articles of apparel & clothing accessori es and yard 44% Machiner y and Transport 6% Other 25% Sugar 13% Fish and fish preparati ons 12% 13

Section 2 - External sector Balance of payments Provisional estimates for the calendar year 2007 indicate that the current account of the balance of payments recorded a lower deficit of Rs.12.5 billion compared to a deficit of MUR Rs.19.4 billion in 2006. The deficit in the merchandise account of the balance of payments, inclusive of the purchase of aircraft, surged to Rs.44 billion in 2007 from Rs.34.5 billion a year earlier. The deficit in the merchandise account was however partly offset by a surplus on the services, income and current transfers accounts. The capital and financial count, inclusive of reserve assets, recorded lower net inflows of Rs. 2 billion measured while the change in reserve assets excluding valuation changes, registered a surplus of Rs. 13.9 billion as against a deficit of Rs.4.6 billion in 2006. Chart 11: Balance of Payments (Source: BoM) 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-5,000-10,000-15,000 Current account Capital and financial account -20,000 Reserve Asset -25,000 14

Section 2 - External sector Balance of payments The capital and financial accounts tell how the surplus in the current account is utilised and how the deficit is financed. Thus a deficit, as this is the case from 2004 to 2007, is expected to be financed by foreign investment inflows, external borrowings and draw downs on reserve assets. The net movement in reserve assets, which is included in the financial account, is equivalent to the balance of payments (BoP) surplus or deficit. The BoP surplus amounted to Rs.13.9 billion for 2007. According the BOM, the net errors and omissions for 2007 was Rs.10.4 billions and Rs.8.9 billions in 2006. In 2007, Foreign Direct Investment achieved a record level of Rs.11 billion, representing a 59% growth over the previous year. This is mainly attributed to massive investments in Hotels and restaurants and in the Financial sector. Chart 12: Foreign Direct Investment and Direct Investment Abroad (Source: BoM) 11,514 Direct Investment Abroad (Rs million) Foreign Direct Investment (Rs million) 7,265 7,222 2,807 1,966 1,796 936 979-333 -83-278 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-1,156-970 -1,942-1,134-1,826 15

Section 3 Government finance Advisory

Section 3 - Government finance Budget Deficit The budget deficit is decreasing gradually over the years. However, according to the World Bank, fiscal deficit will require to fall to 3% of GDP in the medium term to be sustainable. The Budget Deficit for 2007/08 is projected to be around 3.8% of GDP, as announced in last year s budget. This, however, reflects both a public spending overshoot (by Rs.2.9 billion) and an above than expected revenue level (by Rs.1.7 billion). For 2008/09, total government expenditure of Rs.63.5 billion against revenue and grants of Rs.61.6 billion and a resultant budget deficit of Rs.9.3 billion, representing a budget deficit of 3.3% of GDP is, in conventional economic terms mildly expansionary. Chart 13: Budget deficit (Source: Ministry of Finance) 12,000 7.3% 6.9% 7,000 6.4% 3.8% (Rs'000) 2,000-3,000 2.3% 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 Overall deficit Deficit as a % of GDP 5.3% 5.0% 4.3% 2005/06 2006/07 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 3.8% 4.00% 3.3% 2.00% 2007/08 2008/09 (%) 0.00% -2.00% -8,000-4.00% -6.00% -13,000-8.00% 17

Section 3 - Government finance Government revenue Total revenue keeps growing and is expected to reach Rs.52.2 billion in 2007/08. However, the revenue from indirect tax is expected to account for only 69% of total revenue; indirect tax revenue has usually accounted for a steady 75%-77% of total revenue over the past five years. It should be noted that tax for 2007/08 yielded Rs.3.8 billion revenue higher than projected while grants from the European Union were much lower than hoped for. Customs duties continue to account for a decreasing share of total taxes while excise duties and Value Added Tax contributions have remained unchanged over the past five years. This is in line with the country s policy to liberalise its external trade and the significant decrease in rates of customs. Chart 14: Government revenue 2008/09 Chart 15: Government revenue (Source: Ministry of Finance) (Source: Ministry of finance) 60,000.00 25% Other indirect taxes 11% Social contribution s 2% 50,000.00 Government Revenue Growth in Revenue 21% 19% 20% VAT 52% Grants 7% Property income 7% 40,000.00 30,000.00 20,000.00 12% 15% 11% 10% 13% 5% 12% 9% 15% 10% 5% Taxes on Incom e, Profits and Capital Gains 19% Other income 2% 10,000.00 0.00-3% 0% -5% 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 18

Section 3 - Government finance Government expenditure Total expenditure reached an estimated Rs.55.1 billion in 2007/08. We note that government expenditure should register a 15% increase for 2008/09, reaching Rs. 63.5 while growth of expenditure has been kept at around 5% for the last three years. In fact, higher revenues from taxes and grants have provided the Minister with greater flexibility on spending while keeping the budget deficit at a sustainable level. The introduction of Programme Based Budgeting is highly welcomed and should help contain future spending by tying permitted expenditure to specific targets. This has been successfully applied throughout the world for the past decade and has greatly helped in managing government expenditure. Chart 16: Government expenditure 2008/09 (Source: Ministry of Finance) Chart 17: Government expenditure (Source: Ministry of finance) Goods and services 9% Programme s 0% Compensati on of Employees 30% Subsidies and Grant 22% Social Benefits 21% Acquisition of Financial Assets 1% Other Expenses 5% Acquisition of Non Financial Assets 12% 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1999/2000 5% 2000/01 16% 2001/02 17% 4% 2002/03 2003/04 Government expenditure Growth of expenditure 11% 8% 7% 5% 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 5% 2008/09 15% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 19

Section 3 - Government finance Debt Total public debt, consisting of internal and external public debt, has increased to Rs.146 billion in 2007/08 from Rs.138 billion in 2006/07, registering a fair 6% progression. As a percentage of GDP at market prices, total public debt fell from 67% at the end of June 2007 to 63 % at the end of June 2008. Chart 18: Internal and external debt June figures (Source: Ministry of Finance) Foreign debt Domestic debt 22,651 21,597 24,701 21,321 26,408 23,296 83,285 91,666 103,302 113,057 113,450 124,689 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20

Appendix 1 Glossary Advisory

Appendix 1 - Glossary Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations Term BOM CSO CPI DIA EOE EPZ FDI GDFCF GDP GNS IRS RES Definition Bank of Mauritius Central Statistical Office Consumer Price Index Direct Investment Abroad Export Oriented Enterprises Export Processing Zone Foreign Direct Investment Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation Gross Domestic Product Gross National Savings Integrated Resort Scheme Real Estate Scheme 22

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