Flood Risk Awareness, Preparedness and Perceptions: A Case Study of Bray

Flood Risk Awareness, Preparedness and Perceptions: A Case Study of Bray Dr Finbarr Brereton and Dr Eoin O Neill School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Policy University College Dublin Ilda Dreoni, University of Turin 1

Acknowledgements Thank you to Dr. Harutyun Shahumyan who assisted with GIS and map analysis. Also thanks to Dr. Craig Bullock who assisted with the willingness-to-pay analysis. 2

Outline Context European Disasters Ireland Policy shift Bray case study Perceptions of flood risk Preparedness Awareness Responsibility Policy 3

Natural Hazards Globally, 3.4b people exposed to one or more natural hazard Increasing number of events? Rising costs? Explained by increased awareness? Climate Change impacts? 4

Natural Hazards in Europe 1998-2009 saw 928 major events recorded: 99,000 fatalities 148b losses ( 36b insured losses) Including 213 flooding events: 1,100 fatalities 52b losses ( 12b Insured losses) (EM DAT, 2010) 5

Ireland Summer Floods 2008 Localised flooding in counties Dublin, Wicklow, Wexford, Offaly, Tipperary, Kilkenny, Laois... Major flooding in Carlow, Newcastle West and Mallow Dublin Newcastle West 6 Carlow

Ireland Winter Floods 2009 Parteen Weir, Birdhill Cork Ballinasloe Mallow 7

Ireland Total identified costs of 2009 floods was 520.9m: 276.9m related to costs to the State damage to roads, infrastructure, the provision of temporary accommodation, costs incurred by the rescue services. 244m consisting of damage to private infrastructure and covered by private insurance Figures exclude uninsured and non-monetary social costs Importance of communications, preparedness, and emergency planning in response to extreme events: Joint Oireachtas Report (2011) DoECLG Review of the Response to Exceptional Severe Weather Events of 2009-2010 (2012) General lack of socio-economic analysis of flooding in Ireland, its impact on people, and people s views on different policy responses. 8

Irish Context Ireland is also facing an increased likelihood of environmental hazards due to Climate Change (Sweeney et al., 2008; IPCC, 2007) Risks are likely to increase over time due to climate change (Murphy and Charlton, 2009) 9

Policy Responses to Flooding Mitigation: Spread the losses loss shared by wider society through public insurance schemes Plan for losses raise awareness of risk and relief only possible through private insurance Bear the losses individuals and companies bear the losses and cope as best they can. Protection: Modify the risk by reducing the probability of damage Structural solutions Macro protection community-level flood relief schemes Micro protection household level resistance measures Adaptation: Modify the loss potential by reducing the consequences through non-structural means early warning systems, evacuation plans, land use planning, household level resilience measures 10

Responses to Flooding Mitigation of losses: Spread the losses loss shared by wider society through public insurance schemes Plan for losses raise awareness of risk with relief only possible through private insurance Bear the losses individuals and companies bear the losses and cope as best they can. Protection: The Traditional Response Modify the risk by reducing the probability of damage through structural solutions Macro protection community-level flood relief schemes Micro protection household-level resistance measures Adaptation: Modify the loss potential by reducing the consequences through non-structural means early warning systems, evacuation plans, land use planning, household level resilience measures 11

Responses to Flooding Mitigation: Spread the losses loss shared by wider society through public insurance schemes Plan for losses raise awareness of risk and relief only possible through private insurance Bear the losses individuals and companies bear the losses and cope as best they can. Protection: Modify the risk by reducing the probability of damage Structural solutions Macro protection community-level flood relief schemes Micro protection household level resistance measures Adaptation: Modify the loss potential by reducing the consequences through non-structural means: Flood Awareness/Preparedness Early warning systems Emergency (evacuation) plans Land use planning Household-level resilience measures 12

New Policies Paradigm More focus on resilience than on prevention with increased attention on flood warnings, public perceptions of flood risk and flood awareness (Wolsink, 2010; Tunstall et al., 2004; Werritty, 2006) Little literature on public engagement, and on perceptions and attitudes to flood risk 13

New Policies Paradigm More recently, analysis of spatial patterns of social vulnerability associated with flooding why types of people locate in vulnerable locations, live in inadequate homes and fail to anticipate, resist or recover from the aftermath of an event (Tapsell et al., 2002). examination of place attachment, flood preparedness and evacuation dynamics (Mishra et al., 2010) 14

Case Study 15

Bray Case Study Bray, located in North East Wicklow and c. 12 miles south of Dublin city centre. Population of c. 27,000 Located on the Dargle River. Coastal location 16

Bray: Historic Flooding Four major flood events in Bray during the last century 25th August 1905 3rd September 1931 16th and 17th November 1965 25 th and 26th August 1986 less significant floods occurred in Bray in 1947 and 1958. Flooding in Bray occurs with an approximate frequency of once every 25 to 30 years Hurricane Charlie return period of between 50 and 100 years in the low lying areas of Bray 17

Bray Case Study 18

Bray Case Study Flood relief scheme designed and planned Planning approval from An Bord Pleanala in August 2008 Emergency Flood Plan employed Sept 2008 On-going media speculation throughout 2011 regarding likelihood of scheme progressing Funding reviewed 2011 = uncertainty Funding allocated Jan 2011 Contracts signed in February 2012 Work pending 20

Bray Case Study Survey undertaken between August and September 2011 targeted the population of the flood zone and environs 305 respondents from c. 1,500 properties in 1986 floodplain and within 150m of floodplain Gathered information on: Perceptions Risk Preparedness Awareness Responsibility Insurance Willingness to Pay (WTP) 21

Mapping Perceptions Thinking about the Dargle River here in Bray, could you outline as accurately as possible on this map, the likely extent of the area you believe would be affected by a severe flood, for example, a flood similar in scale to that of Hurricane Charlie in 1986 22

Mapping Perceptions 23

2D Density Overlay 28

3D Density Overlay 29

0 Density.01.02.03.04 Years at Current Address 0 20 40 60 80 100 A1 30

0 Density.1.2.3 Risk Are you generally a person who is fully prepared to take risks or do you try to avoid taking risks? 0 2 4 6 8 10 A2 31

Risk In general, thinking about where you live, would you say that your home is at risk of flooding? Yes, major risk 22% Yes, minor risk 23% No 54% Has any house or apartment /complex ever flooded while you were living there? Yes, this house or this apartment/complex 12% Yes, another house or another apartment/complex 16% No 71% 32

Preparedness In thinking about preparing for a major flooding event in your home or area, which category below best represents your preparedness? I haven t thought much about it 51% I am not planning to undertake any preparations 30% I intend to prepare in the next few months 8% I am preparing for an emergency at the moment 3% I am currently fully prepared 8% 33

Preparedness Which, if any of these actions have you taken to protect yourself or your property from flooding? Checked flood information brochures/ websites 16% Checked insurance cover 37% Read the Bray Town Council emergency flood plan 14% Participated in a community flood drill 2% Moved valuables upstairs 15% Created an emergency flood kit 10% Acquired sandbags 8% Bought flood protection products 2% Installed flood-proof household measures 3% 35

Awareness In the event that your home was to flood in the future, who would you contact first for help? Gardai 7% 8% Fire Service 20% 44% Local Authority/ Council 28% 32% Civil Defense 3% 5% Insurance Company 5% 3% Family 21% Friends 4% Neighbours 2% Other 6% 37

Responsibility Should your home flood, who do you consider should be most responsible for cleaning up and paying for the cost of flood damage? You (householder) 19% Insurance Company 28% Landlord 4% Government 4% Local Authority/ Council 41% 39

Insurance Do you have any personal household insurance at present that covers you against flooding? Yes 48% No 26% (80) Don t Know 25% Can you tell me why you do not have personal household insurance that provides flood cover? Can t get cover 15% Too expensive 10% I am not concerned about flooding 35% It is not my responsibility 16% Have not thought about it 24% 40

Willingness To Pay (WTP) Given the current uncertainty about funding of the Bray Flood Relief Scheme would you be willing in principle to pay towards this public flood relief scheme? Yes 47% No 52% Average WTP 231 p.a. for 5 years 42

Conclusions Heightened flood risk arising from climate change. 28% of respondents have experienced some level of flooding 45% believe that their home is at risk of flooding Perceptions of flooding density overlaps reasonably strongly with 1986 historic floodplain 43

But, Conclusions Relatively low levels of preparedness Majority believe responsibility for flood clean up and cost of damage lies beyond the householder However, A significant proportion (47%) are willing to contribute in principle towards the flood relief scheme 44

Thank you 45