CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND POLICY RESEARCH May 2017 California & Metro UNIVERSITY OF THE PACIFIC EBERHARDT SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND POLICY RESEARCH Del Norte Siskiyou Modoc Humboldt Trinity Shasta Lassen Tehama Plumas Mendocino Glenn Butte Sierra Nevada Lake Colusa Sutter Yuba Placer Sonoma San Francisco Marin San Mateo Napa Yolo Solano Contra Costa Alameda Santa Clara Sacramento San Joaquin El Dorado Amador Stanislaus Calaveras Merced Alpine Tuolumne Mariposa Madera Mono Santa Cruz San Benito Fresno Inyo Monterey Kings Tulare California & Metro Forecast is published by the Center for Business and Policy Research University of the Pacific Eberhardt School of Business San Luis Obispo Kern San Bernardino Santa Barbara E-mail Web Stockton Sacramento cbpr@pacific.edu Pacific.edu/CBPR 209.946.7385 916.340.6084 Ventura Los Angeles Staff Dr. Jeffrey A. Michael, Director Dr. Thomas Pogue, Associate Director Nahila Ahsan, Research Analyst Jesse Neumann, Economic Research Analyst Neriah Howard, Student Researcher Anjul Shingal, Student Researcher Sydney Stanfill, Student Researcher Santa Barbara Ventura Santa Barbara Los Angeles Orange San Diego Riverside Imperial UNIVERSITY OF THE PACIFIC EBERHARDT SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
2017-2020 California & Metro May 2017 Published quarterly by the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific Eberhardt School of Business. Copyright 2017 Center for Business and Policy Research. All rights reserved. This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Center s judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Center for Business and Policy Research nor The Regents of the University of the Pacific shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Center for Business and Policy Research, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication, or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.
Contents California Highlights... 5 Forecast Summary...6-10 California Forecast Tables... 11-16 California Forecast Charts...17-21 Fresno MSA...23-26 Merced MSA...27-30 Modesto MSA...31-34 Oakland MSA... 35-38 Sacramento MSA...39-42 San Francisco MSA... 43-46 San Jose MSA...47-50 Stockton MSA...51-54
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS Highlights of the May 2017 California Forecast Real gross state product is forecast to grow 2.7% over the next 12 months, followed by a gradual decline in growth rates to 2.1% in 2020 as the risk of recession increases. The California unemployment rate has dropped below 5% and is forecast to stabilize between 4.5% and 5% for the next three years as the labor force and employment will grow at about a 1% annual rate over the forecast horizon. Nonfarm payroll jobs will grow 1.5% over the next 12 months, about half the pace of the previous four years when job growth was between 2.5% and 3%. This slower growth is to be expected for an economy nearing full employment. Health Services has become the largest employment sector in the state, and is projected to add about 40,000 positions over the next 12 months, less than the 65,000 jobs added in recent years. With federal health funding expected to decline, growth in Health Services jobs will drop to 20,000 new jobs per year by 2020. Professional Scientific & Technical Services is a high-paying sector that has fueled the recovery. Growth in this sector will slow to about 25,000 jobs over the next year compared to over 50,000 in some recent years as Silicon Valley growth cools. Growing tourism and a gradual shift in consumer spending from retail to restaurants has fueled rapid growth in Leisure and Hospitality sector. However, this sectors growth is slowing to 30,000 new jobs over the next 12 months and will cool further to 20,000 new jobs by 2020 as higher minimum wages lead to slower hiring. State and local government employment will be one of the slowest growing sectors, projected at 1% or less job growth over the next several years as state and local governments grapple with slower revenue growth and rising pension costs. About 25,000 new Construction jobs are anticipated in each of the next three years, about a 3% annual growth rate. Despite this expected growth, there will still be fewer Construction jobs in 2020 than before the recession. Single-family housing starts are growing slowly, only reaching 50,000 units in 2016. We project an increase to 58,000 units in 2017 and 68,000 units in 2018. Multifamily production recovered to 45,000 units in 2015 and has stabilized at this level. We expect modest multi-family growth to 55,000 units by 2020. Despite some growth, housing production will be insufficient to relieve the state s growing housing shortage. California s population growth rate is gradually declining due to lower birth rates, housing costs and availability, and lower immigration. By 2020, we project California will add about 250,000 new residents per year, down from 350,000 annual population growth seen earlier in the decade. Center for Business and Policy Research 5
FORECAST SUMMARY California Outlook The California economy continues to perform well despite an uncertain policy environment. Prior to the election, our forecast was that a surprise Trump election would stimulate the economy in 2017, but increase recession risk and reduce longrun economic performance. The turbulent start to the President Trump s term has resulted in few significant actions on economic policy and in comparison to our last forecast around the January inauguration, the risks of a trade war and large cuts to healthcare spending seem lower. While the administration has forwarded a budget proposal with large reductions in discretionary spending, it has yet to make a detailed tax proposal. We believe tax cuts are more likely to be passed by Congress this year with some immediate effects, but spending cuts will probably be delayed several years. The healthcare proposal passed by the House and supported by the President is an example of this as it would implement tax cuts immediately, but postpones the largest cuts to Medicaid spending until 2020. As a result, the Congressional Budget Office shows the proposal would increase federal deficits in initial years, before reducing deficits beyond 2020 when spending cuts would kick in. While our January forecast assumed large Medicaid cuts would hit California in 2018, we have now postponed that until 2020 which is one reason the medium-term forecast is slightly improved in this update. We expect other fiscal policies from the Trump administration to follow a similar pattern, immediate tax cuts with associated spending cuts scheduled for future years. Overall, our California forecast shows slower growth compared to recent years, a natural outcome this far into an economic expansion where labor availability and resource constraints are placing physical limits on the pace of growth in some regions of the state. Nevertheless, this May forecast sees somewhat faster growth than we had projected in January, especially for 2018, as the risks from healthcare reform and trade wars seemingly reduced through the next year or two. In 2018, California is likely to see a modest boost to employment and economic activity as its recreational cannabis market launches as well. Nonfarm payrolls are projected to grow 1.7% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018, up from 1.6% and 1.0% in our January 2017 Table 1. California Annual Forecast Summary 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Real Gross State Product (% change) 3.8 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.1 Non-Farm Payroll Employment (% change) 3.1 2.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.2 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.7 Housing Starts (thousands) 92.6 94.4 101.8 117.0 126.0 131.5 6 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
FORECAST SUMMARY Table 2. Central Valley Metro Forecast Summary Metro Area Non-Farm Payroll Employment (% change) Unemployment Rate (%) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sacramento 3.5 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.2 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.6 Stockton 3.4 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.0 8.0 7.3 6.8 6.7 6.8 Modesto 3.3 2.1 1.2 1.3 0.9 8.5 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.7 Merced 2.6 0.4 1.9 1.9 1.6 10.4 9.8 9.3 8.8 8.6 Fresno 3.4 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 9.4 8.8 8.4 8.1 8.1 California 2.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.7 NOTE: Sacramento MSA includes Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, and Yolo Counties. Stockton, Merced, Fresno and Modesto MSAs correspond to San Joaquin, Merced, Fresno, and Stanislaus Counties. Table 3. Bay Area Metro Forecast Summary Metro Area Non-Farm Payroll Employment (% change) Unemployment Rate (%) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 San Francisco 4.0 2.1 2.2 1.7 1.2 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 San Jose 3.1 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.0 3.8 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.1 Oakland 3.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.2 4.3 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.3 California 2.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.7 NOTE: San Francisco MSA includes San Francisco and San Mateo Counties. Oakland MSA includes Contra Costa and Alameda Counties. San Jose MSA includes Santa Clara and San Benito Counties. forecast. The unemployment rate is projected to decline to 4.5% by the end of this year and stabilize at that level for 2018 and 2019. Perhaps the most significant change to this statewide forecast is a lower, level of population growth in California due to continued housing shortages, lower immigration resulting from Trump administration policies, and lower birth rates. While most recent years have seen California adding 350,000 residents per year, just under a 1% growth rate, our revised forecast shows California population growing by about 250,000 people per year in 2018 through 2020, only a 0.6% rate. This will translate into lower labor force growth which somewhat lowers the unemployment rate, but limits the overall growth potential for the state economy. This forecast for steady growth should not be interpreted as a projection that there will not be a recession in the next 3-4 years. In the near term, we do not see anything that seems likely to cause Center for Business and Policy Research 7
FORECAST SUMMARY a recession. However, it is true that historically we have seen recessions arrive at this point in expansion cycles and it is rare for unemployment rate to stay below 5% for several years. And things can change quickly in an uncertain global and political environment. Even in the absence of global conflict, there is a plausible domestic scenario where higher inflation and interest rates stifle investment and combine with fiscal contraction to create a U.S. downturn by 2020. Around this same time, California s minimum wage increases will be accelerating and its disruptive effects on the labor market will start to be more evident. Thus, we believe recession risks are increasing with each year, but the risk remains low enough that our baseline projection continues to call for slow and steady expansion through 2020. THE REGIONAL OUTLOOK The differences in economic outcomes between Northern California regions continue to grow even as these local economies become more integrated with one another in the Northern California Megaregion. Trends in labor force and population growth are an interesting and important way that this phenomenon can be seen. For several years, it has been apparent that skilled labor is increasingly concentrated in certain high-productivity urban areas like the San Francisco Bay Area. Table 4 shows the growth in the labor force and growth in population in each of the eight metro areas in our forecast between 2011 and 2016. While the above data above does not differentiate by skill level, it does show dramatically the increasing concentration of labor in general across the Megaregion. The fact that San Francisco s labor force has grown faster than its overall population is remarkable, especially considering that less than half the overall U.S. population, and only 63% of the working age population is in the labor force. While labor force participation of working age Table 4. Population and Labor Force Growth in Northern California Metro Areas Metro Area Population Growth 2011-16 (thousands) Labor Force Growth 2011-16 (thousands) San Francisco 91.4 113.3 San Jose 111.3 103.9 Oakland 187.2 73.6 Sacramento 121.8 26.7 Stockton 39.1 8.9 Fresno 39.5 5.1 Modesto 23.5 3.7 Merced 9.1 0.9 adults has bucked broader trends and held steady in the Bay Area, for labor force growth to exceed population growth, working age adults must be moving to the area and displacing non-labor force participants such as children and retirees from the region. Abundant high-wage opportunities make San Francisco attractive to many workers despite the cost of living, and average household incomes have increased enough to keep pace with rents as the average household has more workers than in the past. However, it is extremely difficult for anyone to cope with the high cost of living in the Bay Area if they are not simultaneously benefiting from the high-wage labor market. Households with fewer workers are leaving the Bay Area, and many of them move to lower-cost inland markets within the Megaregion. 8 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
FORECAST SUMMARY This may, in part, explain the pattern seen in some of the inland markets where there has been very low labor force growth compared to population growth. The Bay Area is the greatest source of migrants to the Central Valley, and while many of them are commuting back for jobs, it appears that most of the migrants are family members that are out of the workforce. Of the five Central Valley areas, Stockton had the highest labor force growth relative to population growth, which is probably not surprising since it is the closest to the Bay Area and has the most long-distance commuters. Nevertheless, labor force growth in Stockton was only 22% of population growth and collectively all five Central Valley areas added only 45,000 workers, less than 19% of the total population growth of 233,000. In contrast, even when including the East Bay, the Bay Area added 291,000 to its workforce, 75% of its total population growth of 389,000. In summary, disparities in wages and housing costs are changing the distribution of labor across the Northern California Megaregion. The Bay Area has been able to sustain strong job growth for a little longer than we originally forecast, because it has been able to grow its high-skilled labor force even in the face of severe housing constraints that limited overall population growth. Eventually, these limits will start to bite and we are seeing that now as Bay Area job growth has fallen to about half its pace of a few years ago with the largest slowdown in San Jose. Nevertheless, we still expect San Francisco payrolls to grow over 2% for the next two years despite unemployment below 3% and population growth below 1% due to the previously discussed labor force trends and continued growth in commuting. Job growth in the San Jose and Oakland areas is projected to be somewhat slower at around 1.5% annually for the next few years, still an impressive rate considering unemployment is around 3% and population growth is slowing. Newly revised data has improved the Stockton outlook compared to our January forecast, but we still see job growth in the region decelerating to less than 2% this year for the first time since 2011. The Stockton area s unemployment rate is poised to fall below 7% in 2018 and remain near its historic low. As discussed earlier, some of this decline is due to slow labor force growth and commuting but most of the recovery is due to the strong rebound in the local labor market. The logistics sector and fast-growing southern cities like Tracy and Manteca continue to lead the Stockton metropolitan area s growth, but Stockton has a great opportunity under its dynamic new mayor to improve the City s image and economy five years after the bankruptcy declaration of 2012. Modesto, Merced and Fresno will all benefit from large state infrastructure investments. In Modesto, this includes hundreds of millions to expand the Altamont Commuter Express rail service to Modesto and eventually Merced. UC-Merced expansion is expected to generate up to $1 billion in investment over several years, and high-speed rail will likely spend over $1 billion in the Fresno area over a similar period. These are the most agriculturally oriented areas in our forecast, but these projects will help expand economic opportunities for local populations that primarily live in growing cities. Investments in these urban economies is important as the agricultural sector is facing a number of future challenges as prices come down from record highs and labor and water become less abundant and more costly over time. Unemployment in all three of these metro areas is likely to be in single-digits in 2017 and through the rest of the forecast period, a historically strong performance for these areas with chronically high unemployment but still double the statewide average. These economies, along with Stockton and Sacramento, will also be among those most affected by the large policy changes on the horizon including healthcare, immigration, minimum wage and trade. These policies will generate a range of positive and negative effects that increase uncertainty in the forecast. What is Center for Business and Policy Research 9
FORECAST SUMMARY certain is that these region s economies will undergo significant structural change over the next decade. The Sacramento economy is in an interesting situation. Job growth has fallen to a pace of less than 2% after two strong years fueled by large construction projects and some significant job loss events such as the closure of a 1,000 employee Verizon call center and Aerojet winding down its remaining manufacturing. In both cases, long-time Sacramento employers are consolidating employment in other lower-cost states that have raised questions about the region s and California s competitiveness. On the positive side, Amazon is adding over 1,000 jobs in a massive new fulfillment Center near the airport and the Sacramento area keeps showing up in various residential real estate rankings as one of the nation s hottest markets, especially when it comes to interest from out-of-area buyers. There is energy from the new downtown arena and a number of successful infill developments near downtown, yet Sacramento is still struggling to develop a strong private-sector economy beyond its government and healthcare base. A traditional top-down economic forecast that compares a region s industry composition to a macro growth outlook by industry generates a weak forecast for Sacramento.. This is because a state government and healthcare economy is not a good growth engine in a state with slowing population growth and fiscal challenges combined with a healthcare sector threatened by policy changes. Despite these challenges, Sacramento has tremendous potential to broaden and expand its economic base as it boasts the highest-quality of life attributes (education, environment, health, etc.) of more affordable inland regions in California and is attracting significant relocation interest from families in the high-skill Bay Area. While there is great potential for Sacramento to develop into one of California s fastest growing economies, there is not enough current evidence of business investment or migration of skilled labor to support a forecast beyond 1.5% employment growth in 2018 and 2019, a level that slightly exceeds the statewide average. 10 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 1. Annual Summary 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income and Gross State Product Personal Income (Bil. $) 1560.6 1617.1 1727.4 1838.6 1862.0 1977.9 2103.7 2196.0 2299.3 2421.9 2554.6 2688.2 Calif. (%Ch) -3.4 3.6 6.8 6.4 1.3 6.2 6.4 4.4 4.7 5.3 5.5 5.2 Gross State Product (Bil. $) 1912.1 1965.9 2036.3 2131.2 2224.0 2350.8 2481.3 2577.1 2691.2 2821.8 2946.9 3075.2 Calif. (%Ch) -3.6 2.8 3.6 4.7 4.3 5.7 5.6 3.9 4.4 4.9 4.4 4.4 Real GSP (Bil. 2009$) 1912.1 1936.5 1962.9 2013.6 2064.6 2143.2 2225.4 2279.0 2328.0 2388.4 2443.0 2494.7 Calif. (%Ch) -4.0 1.3 1.4 2.6 2.5 3.8 3.8 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.1 Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment -4.0-0.5 1.0 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.7 Labor Force 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.8 CA Unemployment Rate (%) 11.2 12.1 11.6 10.3 8.8 7.5 6.2 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.7 Non-Farm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Non-Farm California -5.7-1.1 1.1 2.2 2.6 2.8 3.1 2.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 Mining -9.3 3.0 7.6 5.9 0.1 3.1-8.7-14.7-1.0 3.1 1.2 1.3 Construction -21.0-9.8 0.2 5.1 8.1 5.8 8.5 5.9 3.0 4.1 4.1 3.0 Manufacturing -10.0-2.9 0.5 0.4 0.2 1.4 1.7 0.3 0.1 1.9 1.1 0.3 Nondurable Goods -8.2-2.4-0.4 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 Durable Goods -11.1-3.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.5 2.1 0.1 0.0 2.7 1.6 0.5 Trans. Warehs. & Utility -6.0-1.6 1.7 2.7 3.1 4.1 6.2 5.5 1.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 Wholesale Trade -8.2-0.2 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.2 1.2 1.1 2.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 Retail Trade -7.2-0.3 1.9 1.6 1.6 2.1 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 Financial Activities -7.0-2.9 0.2 1.5 1.2-0.1 2.5 2.8 1.3 0.4-0.3-0.4 Prof. and Business Services -8.0 0.6 2.8 5.0 4.4 3.3 2.8 2.2 2.1 3.6 2.5 1.7 Edu & Health Services 3.0 0.8 1.5 3.2 3.4 2.9 3.6 3.3 2.8 1.3 1.0 0.6 Leisure & Hospitality -4.4-0.1 2.3 4.1 4.9 4.9 4.1 3.7 2.2 1.4 1.1 1.0 Information -7.3-2.7 0.4 1.0 3.1 3.0 5.3 7.3 2.6 2.3-0.1 0.9 Federal Gov't. 1.1 6.8-4.6-1.9-2.0-1.3 0.8 1.3-1.7-3.6-1.9 3.8 State & Local Gov't. -1.8-2.1-1.3-1.2 0.1 2.0 2.2 2.3 1.3-0.1 1.0 1.0 Other Indicators Population (thous) 37012.2 37377.7 37718.0 38051.0 38379.7 38717.9 39022.4 39283.2 39541.1 39788.1 40027.4 40265.3 (%Ch) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Ths.) 36.0 39.1 45.8 56.0 72.7 79.3 92.6 94.4 101.8 117.0 126.0 131.5 Housing Starts Single Family 26.7 26.7 23.9 28.8 36.8 41.8 47.1 50.4 57.8 68.3 73.6 76.1 Housing Starts Multi-Family 9.3 12.4 21.9 27.2 35.9 37.5 45.5 43.9 44.0 48.7 52.4 55.4 New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1036.2 1105.8 1223.0 1529.2 1711.9 1848.2 2053.7 2087.0 2094.7 2128.7 2134.5 2123.7 Retail Sales (Billions $) 400.8 425.9 462.2 493.3 508.5 530.0 545.0 561.6 590.6 616.8 649.4 679.2 Center for Business and Policy Research 11
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 2. Quarterly Summary 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income and Gross State Product Personal Income (Annual Rate, Bil. $) 2054.3 2097.2 2118.9 2144.3 2151.6 2182.8 2212.5 2237.3 2255.2 2284.8 2313.8 2343.5 Calif. (%Ch) 6.7 7.0 5.9 5.9 4.7 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 Gross State Product (Bil. $) 2438.8 2475.8 2492.9 2517.9 2536.9 2562.2 2589.6 2619.5 2642.0 2675.0 2708.8 2739.1 Calif. (%Ch) 6.3 6.1 4.7 5.2 4.0 3.5 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.6 Real GSP (Bil. 2009$) 2203.4 2224.1 2228.7 2245.5 2256.7 2269.3 2287.8 2302.1 2304.4 2321.0 2337.0 2349.6 Calif. (%Ch) 4.6 4.4 2.9 3.5 2.4 2.0 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.4 Labor Force 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 CA Unemployment Rate (%) 6.6 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 Non-Farm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Non-Farm California 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 Mining -2.5-6.6-10.9-14.8-14.5-16.1-14.7-13.6-10.6-2.2 2.5 6.0 Construction 6.7 7.7 9.1 10.3 7.8 6.8 5.3 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.9 3.0 Manufacturing 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.3 1.1 0.6-0.2-0.2-0.7-0.2 0.5 1.0 Nondurable Goods 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 Durable Goods 2.0 2.2 2.4 1.6 1.3 0.4-0.6-0.7-1.3-0.4 0.5 1.2 Trans. Warehs. & Utility 6.0 5.8 6.6 6.4 5.9 6.4 5.5 4.2 3.0 1.5 0.9 0.8 Wholesale Trade 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.1 Retail Trade 2.2 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 Financial Activities 1.4 2.1 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.4 2.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 0.5 Prof. and Business Services 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.1 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.9 Edu & Health Services 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.9 3.1 2.7 3.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 Leisure & Hospitality 4.0 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.4 2.3 1.6 Information 3.9 4.9 5.5 6.7 8.7 9.2 7.0 4.4 2.8 0.9 2.6 4.0 Federal Gov't. 0.1 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.7 0.6-0.4-2.6-4.4 State & Local Gov't. 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.6 2.3 1.8 1.2 0.2 Other Indicators Population (thous) 38915.7 38993.9 39058.0 39122.0 39186.0 39250.0 39315.2 39381.5 39446.1 39509.9 39573.0 39635.5 (%Ch) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Ths.) 86.0 105.9 96.1 82.2 89.1 91.7 93.8 102.8 93.3 100.1 104.9 108.8 Housing Starts Single Family 43.3 50.3 47.1 47.5 47.8 45.6 51.3 57.2 51.2 57.4 60.1 62.5 Housing Starts Multi-Family 42.7 55.6 49.0 34.7 41.4 46.2 42.5 45.6 42.1 42.7 44.9 46.3 New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1991.7 2029.4 2093.9 2099.7 2072.6 2068.9 2092.5 2113.9 2061.2 2096.1 2105.1 2116.5 Retail Sales (Billions $) 535.5 543.7 549.7 551.0 549.9 558.3 563.3 575.0 583.9 587.0 593.2 598.2 12 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 2. Quarterly Summary 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income and Gross State Product Personal Income (Bil. $) 2375.7 2406.1 2436.0 2469.6 2504.5 2538.1 2571.9 2604.1 2639.3 2672.4 2704.8 2736.4 Calif. (%Ch) 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 Gross State Product (Bil. $) 2773.3 2805.7 2838.0 2870.2 2901.8 2931.1 2962.4 2992.5 3024.4 3058.7 3092.4 3125.2 Calif. (%Ch) 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 Real GSP (Bil. 2009$) 2366.1 2380.9 2395.7 2411.1 2424.3 2436.4 2449.7 2461.8 2474.0 2488.3 2502.0 2514.5 Calif. (%Ch) 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 Labor Force 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 CA Unemployment Rate (%) 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 Non-Farm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Non-Farm California 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 Mining 7.1 3.1 1.4 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.0 Construction 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.8 Manufacturing 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 Nondurable Goods 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0-0.1 Durable Goods 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 Trans. Warehs. & Utility 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0-0.1 Wholesale Trade 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 Retail Trade 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.1 Financial Activities 0.9 0.5 0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.3 Prof. and Business Services 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 Edu & Health Services 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4 Leisure & Hospitality 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 Information 3.6 3.4 1.6 0.6-0.5-0.8 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 Federal Gov't. -4.3-4.2-3.4-2.5-2.3-2.0-1.8-1.5-1.2 13.1 4.5-1.0 State & Local Gov't. -0.1-0.2-0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.6 Other Indicators Population (thous) 39697.2 39758.2 39818.6 39878.4 39937.7 39997.4 40057.6 40117.0 40176.3 40235.5 40294.5 40355.1 (%Ch) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Ths.) 112.7 115.6 118.5 121.3 123.1 125.5 127.0 128.3 129.6 130.7 132.5 133.2 Housing Starts Single Family 65.5 67.5 69.5 70.8 72.1 73.3 74.1 74.8 75.3 75.8 76.4 76.7 Housing Starts Multi-Family 47.2 48.1 48.9 50.5 51.0 52.2 52.9 53.5 54.3 54.8 56.0 56.5 New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 2126.4 2129.4 2127.5 2131.5 2134.6 2132.4 2134.5 2136.5 2128.7 2128.7 2123.9 2113.6 Retail Sales (Billions $) 605.0 612.6 620.8 628.8 637.4 645.7 653.4 661.1 668.1 675.4 682.7 690.4 Center for Business and Policy Research 13
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 3. Employment Quarterly 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 California Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Non-Farm 15851.7 15966.5 16132.0 16254.8 16341.7 16447.1 16523.5 16611.6 16667.9 16733.0 16798.0 16860.0 Manufacturing 1294.2 1299.2 1306.7 1305.9 1308.8 1307.2 1304.0 1302.9 1299.1 1304.5 1310.4 1315.4 Durable Goods 812.5 817.0 821.9 822.1 823.1 820.0 817.1 816.2 812.7 816.3 821.5 826.2 Wood Products 22.1 22.3 22.8 23.1 23.6 23.6 23.8 23.9 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.5 Computer & Electronics 270.0 271.9 273.5 275.3 276.5 275.7 274.3 274.1 273.8 276.2 279.3 281.9 Transportation Equipment 115.5 116.7 118.5 118.3 118.4 117.3 116.7 116.1 114.6 113.6 112.8 112.2 Nondurables 481.7 482.2 484.9 483.9 485.6 487.3 486.9 486.7 486.4 488.1 488.9 489.2 Foods 154.6 155.7 157.6 156.9 158.2 159.1 159.2 159.2 159.6 161.0 161.9 162.6 Non-Manufacturing 14557.5 14667.2 14825.3 14948.9 15032.9 15139.9 15219.5 15308.7 15368.8 15428.6 15487.6 15544.6 Mining 30.3 29.4 28.1 27.0 25.9 24.7 24.0 23.4 23.2 24.1 24.6 24.8 Construction 707.8 722.8 738.5 756.0 763.3 772.1 777.8 783.0 787.4 793.7 800.1 806.8 Transportation, Warehouse & Util. 543.1 548.4 559.7 569.3 575.1 583.6 590.4 593.3 592.1 592.5 595.5 598.2 Wholesale Trade 710.7 713.1 717.5 719.0 718.9 720.8 723.1 727.8 735.8 738.7 740.8 743.2 Retail Trade 1651.2 1657.2 1667.5 1668.7 1675.5 1680.9 1684.5 1693.0 1685.7 1689.9 1693.2 1694.4 Information 472.6 482.5 490.2 499.8 513.9 527.1 524.3 521.9 528.2 531.8 538.2 542.8 Prof. & Bus. Services 2449.0 2463.3 2491.9 2516.6 2519.7 2526.2 2544.8 2548.0 2556.4 2574.8 2595.3 2622.2 Admin. & Support 1048.7 1052.0 1069.4 1087.3 1087.8 1086.4 1089.9 1091.1 1090.6 1100.7 1114.3 1135.4 Prof. Sci. & Tech. 1171.4 1182.5 1194.5 1202.6 1206.5 1214.3 1228.9 1229.7 1238.0 1246.3 1253.1 1259.2 Mgmt. of Co. 228.9 228.8 228.0 226.8 225.3 225.5 225.9 227.2 227.7 227.8 227.9 227.6 Financial Activities 790.4 797.1 805.4 811.3 815.8 820.7 824.5 833.8 830.6 833.1 836.5 838.1 Real Estate & Rent 268.4 270.6 272.6 274.2 275.7 276.9 278.6 282.9 283.1 283.0 284.0 284.7 Finance & Insurance 521.9 526.6 532.9 537.1 540.2 543.9 545.9 550.9 547.5 550.2 552.5 553.4 Education & Health Service 2418.2 2441.3 2470.2 2489.5 2502.8 2536.3 2547.1 2557.8 2591.8 2604.5 2612.6 2621.0 Education Services 341.7 342.6 347.5 348.5 350.0 354.4 355.2 357.8 367.7 368.9 368.3 367.9 Health Services 2076.5 2098.7 2122.7 2141.0 2152.8 2181.9 2191.9 2200.0 2224.1 2235.6 2244.4 2253.1 Leisure & Hospitality 1801.1 1816.7 1838.0 1861.0 1878.3 1889.2 1899.4 1919.0 1928.0 1934.0 1943.5 1950.7 Other Services 540.6 542.7 546.4 549.4 551.3 551.9 559.6 564.8 565.4 566.1 566.7 566.7 Government 2442.5 2452.7 2471.7 2481.3 2492.4 2506.4 2519.9 2542.8 2544.4 2545.3 2540.6 2535.8 Federal Gov't. 243.1 244.2 244.9 245.0 245.9 246.5 248.1 249.1 247.3 245.5 241.8 238.2 State & Local Gov't. 2199.5 2208.5 2226.8 2236.2 2246.5 2260.0 2271.8 2293.7 2297.1 2299.8 2298.8 2297.6 14 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 3. Employment Quarterly 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 California Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Non-Farm 16923.6 16983.0 17034.0 17085.3 17132.4 17180.9 17227.2 17267.0 17300.7 17352.7 17370.2 17390.0 Manufacturing 1323.1 1331.0 1334.5 1338.8 1342.2 1345.0 1347.5 1349.7 1350.8 1350.5 1350.6 1350.7 Durable Goods 832.8 840.2 843.5 847.6 850.7 853.3 855.6 857.7 858.6 858.4 858.7 859.1 Wood Products 24.9 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.4 Computer & Electronics 284.9 287.7 289.3 290.8 290.8 290.8 290.8 290.8 290.8 290.3 290.2 290.5 Transportation Equipment 111.8 111.7 111.5 111.3 110.9 110.6 110.1 110.0 109.9 110.0 110.1 109.9 Nondurables 490.3 490.7 491.0 491.2 491.5 491.6 491.9 492.1 492.2 492.1 491.9 491.7 Foods 163.9 164.6 165.1 165.6 166.0 166.4 166.8 167.2 167.8 168.4 168.8 169.3 Non-Manufacturing 15600.4 15652.0 15699.4 15746.5 15790.2 15835.9 15879.6 15917.2 15949.9 16002.3 16019.6 16039.3 Mining 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.7 Construction 816.5 825.0 834.7 842.7 851.8 860.3 868.0 874.7 880.3 885.8 893.4 899.2 Transportation, Warehouse & Util. 599.7 601.9 604.2 604.9 605.1 605.4 605.7 606.2 606.4 605.7 605.7 605.7 Wholesale Trade 744.5 746.5 748.9 751.0 752.7 754.5 756.6 758.9 761.5 763.0 765.4 767.3 Retail Trade 1696.3 1697.7 1700.2 1702.6 1706.1 1708.0 1709.9 1709.9 1708.7 1707.6 1707.1 1707.6 Information 547.2 550.0 546.6 546.2 544.2 545.4 548.0 549.6 550.6 551.0 552.6 553.1 Prof. & Bus. Services 2648.2 2672.6 2693.5 2707.5 2726.6 2742.1 2755.9 2766.6 2776.4 2787.0 2801.5 2816.2 Admin. & Support 1156.9 1177.4 1192.6 1201.8 1212.6 1221.9 1230.0 1236.5 1242.5 1249.3 1258.7 1268.7 Prof. Sci. & Tech. 1264.0 1268.5 1274.3 1279.3 1287.9 1294.8 1301.0 1305.9 1310.2 1314.8 1320.5 1326.2 Mgmt. of Co. 227.4 226.7 226.6 226.4 226.0 225.4 224.9 224.2 223.7 222.9 222.3 221.3 Financial Activities 838.4 837.3 837.2 837.5 836.7 835.8 834.7 834.1 833.3 831.3 831.3 831.6 Real Estate & Rent 285.5 285.7 286.2 286.5 286.8 286.8 286.8 286.9 287.0 286.7 286.7 286.8 Finance & Insurance 553.0 551.6 551.0 551.0 549.9 549.0 547.9 547.2 546.3 544.6 544.6 544.8 Education & Health Service 2628.2 2637.7 2646.7 2655.1 2660.3 2665.8 2669.9 2676.6 2680.5 2680.3 2684.7 2688.0 Education Services 367.0 367.8 368.3 368.6 368.0 367.0 365.7 364.2 363.1 361.9 361.2 360.2 Health Services 2261.2 2269.9 2278.5 2286.5 2292.3 2298.8 2304.2 2312.4 2317.4 2318.5 2323.5 2327.8 Leisure & Hospitality 1958.5 1962.9 1970.1 1975.8 1980.2 1984.8 1991.2 1995.7 2002.0 2005.2 2010.1 2014.4 Other Services 565.9 564.5 564.0 563.8 563.0 561.5 559.9 558.4 557.6 557.0 556.9 556.8 Government 2532.4 2531.2 2528.3 2534.4 2538.6 2547.3 2554.6 2561.1 2567.2 2603.0 2585.2 2573.7 Federal Gov't. 236.7 235.2 233.7 232.1 231.2 230.4 229.5 228.6 228.4 260.5 239.9 226.4 State & Local Gov't. 2295.7 2296.0 2294.6 2302.3 2307.4 2316.9 2325.0 2332.5 2338.8 2342.5 2345.3 2347.3 Center for Business and Policy Research 15
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 4. Employment Annual 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 California Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Non-Farm 14440.3 14285.3 14439.6 14764.2 15152.9 15575.9 16051.3 16481.0 16764.8 17006.5 17201.9 17353.4 Manufacturing 1287.8 1248.9 1255.7 1260.4 1262.3 1280.0 1301.5 1305.7 1307.3 1331.9 1346.1 1350.6 Durable Goods 804.9 778.0 786.5 789.9 789.6 801.9 818.4 819.1 819.2 841.0 854.3 858.7 Wood Products 19.7 19.0 19.8 19.9 19.0 18.7 18.2 17.3 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.0 Computer & Electronics 282.9 276.7 280.7 276.0 269.1 268.9 272.7 275.1 277.8 288.2 290.8 290.5 Transportation Equipment 114.6 108.7 105.0 105.2 106.2 109.9 117.3 117.1 113.3 111.6 110.4 110.0 Nondurables 482.8 470.9 469.2 470.6 472.7 478.1 483.2 486.6 488.1 490.8 491.8 492.0 Foods 147.9 147.1 149.5 150.3 150.9 152.9 156.2 158.9 161.3 164.8 166.6 168.6 Non-Manufacturing 13152.6 13036.4 13183.9 13503.8 13890.5 14296.0 14749.7 15175.3 15457.4 15674.6 15855.8 16002.8 Mining 26.1 26.8 28.8 30.5 30.5 31.5 28.7 24.5 24.2 24.9 25.2 25.5 Construction 622.8 560.0 561.1 589.9 637.4 674.2 731.3 774.1 797.0 829.7 863.7 889.7 Trans., Warehouse & Util. 473.7 465.8 473.8 486.7 501.8 522.6 555.1 585.6 594.6 602.7 605.6 605.9 Wholesale Trade 646.9 645.4 658.9 675.1 691.9 706.8 715.1 722.7 739.6 747.7 755.7 764.3 Retail Trade 1522.0 1516.7 1545.8 1569.9 1594.9 1628.5 1661.1 1683.5 1690.8 1699.2 1708.5 1707.8 Information 441.7 429.4 431.1 435.4 448.7 462.0 486.3 521.8 535.2 547.5 546.8 551.8 Prof. & Bus. Services 2060.0 2072.5 2130.1 2237.1 2334.9 2412.9 2480.2 2534.7 2587.2 2680.4 2747.8 2795.3 Admin. & Support 851.1 863.7 883.5 933.2 982.5 1027.0 1064.3 1088.8 1110.2 1182.2 1225.2 1254.8 Prof. Sci. & Tech. 1008.9 1010.1 1043.6 1094.5 1131.1 1160.3 1187.8 1219.9 1249.2 1271.5 1297.4 1317.9 Mgmt. of Co. 200.0 198.6 203.0 209.4 221.2 225.6 228.1 226.0 227.8 226.8 225.1 222.6 Financial Activities 782.6 759.6 761.3 772.9 782.1 781.5 801.1 823.7 834.6 837.6 835.3 831.9 Real Estate & Rent 254.9 248.3 247.1 250.9 258.9 265.2 271.4 278.5 283.7 286.0 286.8 286.8 Finance & Insurance 527.7 511.3 514.2 521.9 523.3 516.4 529.6 545.2 550.9 551.6 548.5 545.1 Education & Health Service 2109.3 2126.3 2157.5 2227.0 2301.8 2369.6 2454.8 2536.0 2607.5 2641.9 2668.1 2683.4 Education Services 286.6 291.0 306.1 315.9 326.1 337.4 345.1 354.3 368.2 367.9 366.2 361.6 Health Services 1822.8 1835.3 1851.4 1911.1 1975.7 2032.2 2109.7 2181.7 2239.3 2274.0 2301.9 2321.8 Leisure & Hospitality 1502.9 1500.9 1535.4 1598.4 1676.1 1757.8 1829.2 1896.5 1939.0 1966.8 1988.0 2007.9 Other Services 485.8 484.7 493.6 505.0 516.8 536.2 544.8 556.9 566.2 564.5 560.7 557.1 Government 2478.9 2448.2 2406.5 2376.0 2373.5 2412.5 2462.1 2515.4 2541.5 2531.6 2550.4 2582.3 Federal Gov't. 251.1 268.3 255.3 250.5 245.5 242.4 244.3 247.4 243.2 234.4 229.9 238.8 State & Local Gov't. 2227.8 2179.9 2151.2 2125.6 2128.0 2170.1 2217.7 2268.0 2298.4 2297.2 2320.5 2343.5 16 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
CALIFORNIA CHARTS California Personal Income (percent change from one year ago) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% 10% California Real Gross State Product (percent change from one year ago) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% 14% California Unemployment Rate (percent) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Center for Business and Policy Research 17
CALIFORNIA CHARTS 17,500 California Total Non-Farm Employment (Thousands) 17,000 16,500 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 13,000,100 California Construction Employment (Thouands),000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1,700 California Manufacturing Employment (Thousands) 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 18 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
CALIFORNIA CHARTS 700 California Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Employment (Thousands) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1,000 California Financial Activities Employment (Thouands) 950 900 850 800 750 700 2,900 California Professional and Business Employment (Thousands) 2,700 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 Center for Business and Policy Research 19
CALIFORNIA CHARTS 2,700 California Education and Health Services Employment (Thousands) 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 600 California Information Employment (Thousands) 550 500 450 400 350 300 300 California Federal Government Employment (Thousands) 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 20 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
CALIFORNIA CHARTS 2,400 California State and Local Government Employment (Thousands) 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 60 California Housing Starts (Thousands) 50 40 30 20 10 0 2,500 California New Passenger & Light Truck Registrations (Thousands) 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 900 700 500 Center for Business and Policy Research 21
METROS
Fresno MSA Total annual nonfarm employment is expected to grow approximately 1.9% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018. Annual growth rates/percent changes for total nonfarm employment between 2017 and 2020 are expected to be smaller than figures from previous years. The expected leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are the Construction & Mining (6.1%); Financial Activities (3.1%); and State & Local Government (3.1%) sectors. Employment is expected to increase in all sectors with the exception of the Information (-2.1%), Federal Government (-1.7%), and Leisure & Hospitality (-1.6%) sectors. SHORT TERM OUTLOOK The average annual wage is expected to be $51,894 in 2017, an increase of 1.9% from the previous year. By 2020, the average annual wage is expected to be $57,784. The Fresno MSA population is expected to reach 998,779 in 2018 and will grow approximately 1% each year, reaching 1,018,134 in 2020. In 2018, an increase of 1.1% is expected in the labor force. The 2017 unemployment rate is expected to be 8.8% but it is forecast to decrease to 8.1% by 2020. Housing starts are expected to reach 3,424 by 2020, a notable increase since 2008. The majority of housing starts have been and are expected to continue to be single-family starts. 8000 Fresno Housing Starts 360 Fresno Payroll Employment (Thousands) 7000 340 6000 320 5000 300 4000 3000 280 2000 260 1000 240 0 220 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Fresno Unemployment Rates (percent) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Fresno Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. 0% Center for Business and Policy Research 23
METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO Quarterly Outlook for Fresno May 2017 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 36.5 37.2 37.7 38.1 38.3 38.8 39.3 39.6 39.8 40.3 40.7 41.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.7 6.8 5.9 5.6 4.9 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.9 Wages and Salaries 15.8 16.2 16.3 16.6 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.2 Nonwage Income 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.5 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.8 23.0 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 37.6 38.3 38.7 39.0 39.1 39.6 40.0 40.3 40.4 40.8 41.1 41.5 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 49.2 50.0 49.8 50.3 50.3 50.9 51.4 51.3 51.3 51.7 52.1 52.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 4.2 2.4 2.6 2.2 1.9 3.1 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.4 2.5 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 319.9 322.3 326.2 329.3 331.1 334.6 337.2 339.4 340.4 341.7 342.6 343.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.8 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.2 Manufacturing 25.3 25.2 25.5 25.3 25.0 25.2 25.2 25.1 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.5 6.4 6.6 3.1-1.1 0.1-1.1-0.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.5 Nonmanufacturing 294.6 297.1 300.7 303.9 306.1 309.4 311.9 314.3 315.0 316.4 317.4 318.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.4 2.9 2.3 1.8 1.3 Construction & Mining 14.7 15.2 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.0 9.5 8.6 8.2 9.6 6.1 4.0 3.1 4.8 6.2 6.7 6.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 62.5 62.8 63.9 64.4 64.9 65.6 66.0 66.8 67.1 67.5 67.7 68.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.3 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.5 3.3 3.6 3.4 2.8 2.7 1.8 Wholesale Trade 13.5 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.4 Retail Trade 36.9 37.0 37.7 37.7 38.1 38.5 38.9 39.4 39.1 39.2 39.3 39.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.5 12.7 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.2 Information 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 2.6-0.7-1.7-2.5-3.4-3.5-4.7-4.1-4.0-1.3 1.1 Financial Activities 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 2.0 3.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 0.7 4.2 3.9 3.3 3.7 1.4 Prof & Business Services 31.6 31.6 31.2 31.5 31.8 32.0 31.9 32.0 32.0 32.1 32.3 32.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 4.4-1.0-0.6 0.7 1.4 2.1 1.7 0.5 0.4 1.4 2.2 Educ & Health Services 58.7 59.7 61.1 62.0 62.9 63.8 64.8 65.3 65.6 65.7 65.7 65.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 5.0 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.9 6.1 5.4 4.4 3.0 1.4 0.6 Leisure & Hospitality 31.2 31.3 31.4 31.9 32.0 32.3 32.7 32.2 31.5 31.7 31.9 32.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 2.7 2.3 3.0 2.3 3.2 4.2 1.0-1.5-1.8-2.5-0.5 Other Services 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.7 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.1 1.4 4.3 3.7 3.4 3.1 0.3 0.3 Federal Government 9.7 9.5 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.7 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9-3.1-1.6-1.5-0.3 1.6 4.8 3.6 1.8 0.4-4.4-4.4 State & Local Government 58.1 58.7 59.4 60.3 60.3 61.2 61.3 62.5 62.9 63.2 63.4 63.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 4.5 4.2 5.2 3.9 4.3 3.2 3.7 4.2 3.3 3.4 1.7 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 969.9 972.1 973.9 975.8 977.7 979.7 981.7 983.8 985.9 988.1 990.5 992.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 Labor Force (Ths.) 443.6 444.1 442.8 446.0 444.9 447.9 450.9 450.3 449.0 450.3 452.0 453.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.9 1.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.7 Unemployment Rate (%) 10.5 10.3 10.0 9.9 9.2 9.3 9.6 9.3 9.0 8.7 8.7 8.6 Total Housing Starts 2548 2547 2123 1863 2249 2438 2752 3776 1341 2165 2714 2749 Single-Family 2382 2280 2045 1786 1988 2297 2542 3474 1251 1914 2426 2438 Multifamily 166 267 78 77 261 141 209 302 90 251 288 311 24 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO Quarterly Outlook for Fresno May 2017 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 41.7 42.2 42.7 43.3 43.9 44.4 45.0 45.6 46.1 46.8 47.3 47.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 Wages and Salaries 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.7 21.0 Nonwage Income 23.3 23.6 23.9 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.6 26.8 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 41.9 42.3 42.7 43.2 43.7 44.1 44.6 45.0 45.5 46.0 46.4 46.8 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 53.0 53.5 53.9 54.4 54.9 55.4 56.0 56.5 57.0 57.5 58.0 58.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.8 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 345.0 346.2 347.4 348.6 349.8 351.0 352.1 353.1 353.8 355.6 355.7 355.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.8 Manufacturing 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 1.1 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 Nonmanufacturing 319.6 320.6 321.7 322.9 324.0 325.1 326.1 327.0 327.8 329.5 329.6 329.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.8 Construction & Mining 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.2 19.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 68.1 68.3 68.5 68.7 68.9 69.1 69.2 69.4 69.5 69.5 69.6 69.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 Wholesale Trade 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.0 Retail Trade 39.5 39.5 39.6 39.7 39.8 39.9 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.1 40.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.7 Information 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 3.6 1.9 0.8-0.3-0.8 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 Financial Activities 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.1 0.0 Prof & Business Services 33.0 33.3 33.6 33.8 34.2 34.4 34.5 34.7 34.8 35.0 35.3 35.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.4 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.4 Educ & Health Services 65.9 66.2 66.5 66.8 67.0 67.2 67.4 67.6 67.7 67.7 67.7 67.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 Leisure & Hospitality 32.2 32.3 32.4 32.6 32.7 32.8 32.9 33.1 33.2 33.3 33.4 33.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 Other Services 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.5-0.3 Federal Government 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 10.3 9.5 9.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.3-4.2-3.3-2.5-2.3-2.0-1.7-1.5-1.2 12.9 4.4-1.1 State & Local Government 63.8 63.8 63.8 64.1 64.2 64.5 64.8 65.0 65.1 65.2 65.3 65.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 995.2 997.6 1000.0 1002.4 1004.7 1007.2 1009.6 1012.1 1014.5 1016.9 1019.4 1021.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Labor Force (Ths.) 454.5 455.3 456.5 457.6 458.7 459.6 460.4 461.2 462.3 463.6 464.5 465.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 Unemployment Rate (%) 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.2 Total Housing Starts 2798 2879 2965 3035 3098 3187 3279 3374 3385 3395 3440 3478 Single-Family 2478 2487 2507 2509 2522 2547 2573 2612 2627 2629 2642 2656 Multifamily 320 392 458 526 576 639 706 762 758 766 797 822 Center for Business and Policy Research 25
METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO Annual Outlook for Fresno May 2017 Forecast 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 28.4 28.4 29.5 31.3 32.4 33.2 35.2 37.4 39.0 40.5 42.5 44.7 47.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5-0.1 3.8 6.4 3.5 2.4 5.9 6.2 4.4 3.9 4.9 5.3 5.1 Wages and Salaries 13.7 13.2 13.2 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.2 16.2 17.2 17.8 18.7 19.7 20.6 Nonwage Income 14.7 15.3 16.3 17.9 18.5 18.7 20.0 21.1 21.8 22.7 23.8 25.0 26.4 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 31.2 30.8 31.6 33.3 34.2 34.8 36.5 38.4 39.8 40.9 42.5 44.4 46.2 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 43.5 43.9 45.0 45.8 47.3 47.8 48.4 49.8 50.9 51.9 53.7 55.7 57.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 1.0 2.4 1.8 3.5 1.1 1.1 2.9 2.3 1.9 3.5 3.7 3.7 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 313.3 297.7 290.7 291.4 293.5 302.1 312.6 324.4 335.6 342.1 346.8 351.5 355.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8-5.0-2.3 0.2 0.7 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.4 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 Manufacturing 27.1 25.1 24.1 23.8 23.7 23.1 23.9 25.3 25.1 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.5-7.4-3.7-1.4-0.6-2.4 3.7 5.9-0.7 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.6 Nonmanufacturing 286.2 272.6 266.5 267.6 269.9 279.1 288.7 299.1 310.5 316.8 321.2 325.6 329.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6-4.8-2.2 0.4 0.8 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.8 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.1 Construction & Mining 18.0 13.9 12.2 11.7 12.4 13.4 14.1 15.3 16.2 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -15.0-22.7-11.9-3.9 5.6 8.2 5.4 8.3 5.7 6.1 4.1 3.9 2.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 59.2 55.6 55.2 57.4 58.1 60.7 61.9 63.4 65.8 67.6 68.4 69.1 69.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.0-6.0-0.8 4.0 1.3 4.4 2.1 2.4 3.8 2.7 1.3 1.1 0.7 Wholesale Trade 12.9 11.9 11.5 12.5 12.8 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.4 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.9 Retail Trade 35.4 33.1 32.8 33.4 33.8 35.1 36.3 37.4 38.7 39.3 39.6 39.9 40.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 10.9 10.6 10.8 11.4 11.5 12.0 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.6 Information 4.7 4.2 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 13.4-11.7-14.1-1.5 8.1 0.2 1.5 0.7-3.5-2.1 2.1-0.1 1.2 Financial Activities 14.8 13.8 13.4 13.0 12.8 12.9 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.5-6.4-3.1-3.1-0.9 0.3-0.9 2.2 2.3 3.1 0.6-0.1-0.1 Prof & Business Services 30.5 28.1 26.7 26.9 26.7 28.9 30.9 31.5 31.9 32.3 33.4 34.4 35.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2-8.0-5.1 0.8-0.5 8.0 7.2 1.7 1.5 1.1 3.5 3.0 2.1 Educ & Health Services 50.5 51.4 51.7 52.1 53.3 55.4 57.0 60.4 64.2 65.7 66.4 67.3 67.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 1.8 0.5 0.9 2.2 3.9 2.9 5.9 6.3 2.3 1.1 1.4 0.6 Leisure & Hospitality 27.9 26.6 26.8 27.1 28.0 29.0 30.6 31.4 32.3 31.8 32.4 32.9 33.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8-4.7 0.7 1.2 3.3 3.4 5.5 2.8 2.7-1.6 1.9 1.5 1.5 Other Services 10.6 10.2 10.0 10.1 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.0 12.0 11.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.0-4.4-1.8 1.5 4.7 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.9 1.8-0.2-0.6-0.6 Federal Government 9.7 9.8 10.7 10.2 10.2 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.8 9.6 9.3 9.1 9.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 0.9 8.8-4.8 0.2-2.5-1.4-2.0 2.4-1.7-3.6-1.9 3.7 State & Local Government 60.2 58.9 56.4 55.6 53.9 54.2 56.5 59.1 61.3 63.3 63.9 64.6 65.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0-2.1-4.3-1.4-3.0 0.6 4.2 4.7 3.8 3.1 0.9 1.2 1.0 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 911.0 923.0 933.4 941.2 947.7 955.1 964.2 972.9 980.7 989.3 998.8 1008.4 1018.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 Labor Force (Ths.) 429.0 433.6 439.5 443.4 441.0 439.0 440.8 444.1 448.5 451.2 456.0 460.0 463.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 1.1 1.4 0.9-0.6-0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.9 Unemployment Rate (%) 10.6 14.7 16.7 16.5 15.1 13.2 11.6 10.2 9.4 8.8 8.4 8.1 8.1 Total Housing Starts 2693 2266 2179 1895 1899 2536 2034 2270 2804 2242 2919 3235 3424 Single-Family 2280 2163 1902 1665 1588 2277 1823 2123 2576 2007 2495 2564 2638 Multifamily 413 102 277 229 311 259 211 147 228 235 424 671 786 26 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO Merced MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Total annual nonfarm employment is expected to grow 0.4% in 2017 and 1.9% in 2018. The expected leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are in the Construction (11.3%); Information (9.5%); and Leisure & Hospitality (4.1%) sectors. Declines are forecasted in 2017 for the Professional & Business (-4.3%) and State & Local Government sectors (-3.4%). In 2017, the average annual wage is expected to be $53,124, an increase of 4% from the previous year. By 2020, the average annual wage is forecasted to be $58,895. The Merced MSA population is expected to reach approximately 271,270 in 2017 and will grow approximately 0.9%-1% each year, reaching 279,323 in 2020. The labor force is expected to decrease by 0.9% in 2017 but will grow between 2018 and 2020. The unemployment rate for the Merced MSA is forecasted to be 9.8% in 2017 and then decline to 8.6% by 2020. Approximately 507 housing starts are expected in 2017, an increase from 179 in 2016. Housing starts are expected to reach 1,071 by 2020, mostly composed of single-family starts. 4000 Merced Housing Starts 70 Merced Payroll Employment (Thousands) 3500 65 3000 2500 60 2000 55 1500 50 1000 500 45 0 40 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Merced Unemployment Rates (percent) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Merced Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. 0% Center for Business and Policy Research 27
METRO SUMMARY - MERCED Quarterly Outlook for Merced May 2017 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.5 6.0 5.2 4.8 4.3 3.3 2.8 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.1 Wages and Salaries 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 Nonwage Income 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 35.7 36.3 36.6 36.8 37.0 37.3 37.4 37.8 38.0 38.4 38.7 39.0 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 49.0 50.0 49.9 50.4 50.5 51.1 51.0 51.6 52.5 52.9 53.4 53.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.3 7.8 5.0 5.0 3.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 4.0 3.5 4.6 4.0 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 62.6 63.0 64.0 64.1 64.7 64.9 65.1 65.4 64.9 65.1 65.5 65.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 1.5 2.6 2.4 3.4 3.1 1.8 2.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 Manufacturing 9.6 9.7 9.9 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.0 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.3 2.4-0.8-0.3-2.9-9.5-0.2-0.7 0.4 5.7-0.1 Nonmanufacturing 53.0 53.3 54.0 54.5 55.1 55.5 56.1 55.8 55.4 55.6 56.0 56.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 1.7 2.7 3.0 4.1 4.2 3.9 2.5 0.5 0.2-0.3 0.6 Construction & Mining 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 14.6 11.4 11.2 7.5 7.3 8.8 16.0 16.2 15.3 15.3 7.3 7.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.8 12.6 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 0.7 1.4 1.7 2.6 3.5 4.8 2.1 0.5 0.5-1.3 0.8 Wholesale Trade 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Retail Trade 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Information 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -24.9-25.0-25.0-8.7 0.1 0.2-0.6-18.1 0.0 3.8 9.9 24.3 Financial Activities 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 2.0 0.0 0.1 15.6 14.7 7.7 10.0 3.5 2.3 5.4 2.4 Prof & Business Services 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7-4.4-0.9 5.6-1.7-3.4-2.3-7.4-7.3-4.6-5.0-0.4 Educ & Health Services 9.3 9.3 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.4 3.9 3.3 3.4 2.9 4.4 4.0 4.4 5.7 3.2 2.8 2.1 Leisure & Hospitality 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 1.1 0.0 2.0 3.2 0.8 2.5 2.4 3.1 5.2 4.3 3.7 Other Services 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 2.3 5.2 0.1 2.5 0.2 1.8 7.1 2.9 2.4-0.3-2.9 Federal Government 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.5 4.4 0.0 9.3 14.4 4.7-0.6-0.5-0.8 1.2 4.0-1.3 State & Local Government 16.7 16.7 17.1 17.2 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.5 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 2.4 4.9 3.4 5.7 6.1 3.7 1.9-3.5-4.4-3.7-2.1 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 266.6 267.1 267.5 267.8 268.2 268.6 269.2 269.8 270.4 270.9 271.6 272.21 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 Labor Force (Ths.) 114.8 115.1 115.1 115.4 115.2 115.2 116.0 116.2 115.0 114.2 114.6 114.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1-0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.7-0.2-0.9-1.2-1.2 Unemployment Rate (%) 11.7 11.5 11.1 11.2 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.0 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.6 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rat 215 154 352 251 202 116 194 206 425 490 510 604 Single-Family 215 154 352 251 202 116 194 206 425 471 474 549 Multifamily 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 36 55 28 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
METRO SUMMARY - MERCED Quarterly Outlook for Merced May 2017 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.1 Wages and Salaries 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 Nonwage Income 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 39.4 39.9 40.3 40.8 41.2 41.7 42.2 42.7 43.1 43.6 44.0 44.4 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 54.2 54.7 55.2 55.7 56.1 56.6 57.1 57.6 58.1 58.6 59.1 59.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.7 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 66.1 66.4 66.7 67.0 67.3 67.7 68.0 68.3 68.5 68.8 69.1 69.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.3 Manufacturing 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 Nonmanufacturing 56.5 56.7 57.0 57.3 57.6 57.9 58.2 58.5 58.7 58.9 59.2 59.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.4 Construction & Mining 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.4 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.0 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 Wholesale Trade 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Retail Trade 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 Information 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 4.2 2.2 1.3-0.1-0.2 1.2 1.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.6 Financial Activities 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2-0.2-0.5-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.1 Prof & Business Services 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 Educ & Health Services 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.1-0.5-1.0 Leisure & Hospitality 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 Other Services 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.2-0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1-0.1-0.4-0.3-0.2 0.0 0.2 Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8-3.7-2.9-2.0-1.7-1.4-1.1-0.7-0.3 14.0 5.3-0.4 State & Local Government 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.7 18.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.8 3.2 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 272.81 273.43 274.08 274.77 275.4 276.1 276.8 277.5 278.2 278.9 279.7 280.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 Labor Force (Ths.) 115.2 115.5 115.8 116.1 116.4 116.8 117.1 117.4 117.7 118.0 118.3 118.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 Unemployment Rate (%) 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.7 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rat 721 818 907 972 1030 1041 1046 1051 1060 1069 1077 1078 Single-Family 652 735 812 867 920 929 935 942 947 956 960 960 Multifamily 69 83 95 105 110 112 111 110 112 114 116 118 Center for Business and Policy Research 29
METRO SUMMARY - MERCED Annual Outlook for Merced May 2017 Forecast 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.9 8.1 8.7 9.2 9.7 10.1 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 0.3 4.5 9.1 2.2 7.3 6.3 5.6 3.5 4.0 5.0 5.7 5.4 Wages and Salaries 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 Nonwage Income 4.3 4.4 4.7 5.4 5.4 5.8 6.3 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.1 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 27.5 27.4 28.2 30.4 30.9 32.9 34.7 36.3 37.4 38.5 40.1 42.0 43.7 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 42.7 43.7 43.2 42.9 45.5 46.4 47.0 49.8 51.1 53.1 54.9 56.9 58.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 2.4-1.1-0.8 6.1 1.8 1.4 6.0 2.5 4.0 3.4 3.5 3.5 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 59.8 57.6 58.4 58.6 59.2 60.4 62.0 63.4 65.0 65.3 66.5 67.8 68.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3-3.8 1.4 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.7 2.2 2.6 0.4 1.9 1.9 1.6 Manufacturing 9.3 8.6 8.3 8.2 8.4 8.7 9.6 9.7 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3-7.9-3.0-1.1 2.2 3.6 10.8 0.6-3.2 1.3 2.0 1.4 0.7 Nonmanufacturing 50.5 49.0 50.1 50.4 50.8 51.7 52.4 53.7 55.7 55.8 56.9 58.0 59.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5-3.0 2.2 0.6 0.9 1.7 1.4 2.5 3.7 0.3 1.9 2.0 1.7 Construction & Mining 2.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -24.9-32.0-2.4-1.6 4.2-0.1 7.7 11.2 12.1 11.3 5.1 4.2 3.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.2 12.6 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3-1.5-1.0 3.5 2.4 0.6-0.9 1.4 3.3 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.8 Wholesale Trade 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 Retail Trade 7.6 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 Information 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -12.0-5.9 1.5-29.6-7.4 0.0 0.6-20.9-4.6 9.5 3.0 0.6 1.9 Financial Activities 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.4-12.4 0.0-3.6 0.7-3.2 4.5 0.5 12.0 3.4-0.2-0.3-0.3 Prof & Business Services 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.3 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5-7.7 3.8 4.6-2.0-0.4-11.6-0.3-3.7-4.3 4.0 3.0 2.6 Educ & Health Services 7.5 7.7 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 2.4 4.9 1.2 1.5 5.7 3.2 4.0 3.9 3.4 1.6 1.5-0.1 Leisure & Hospitality 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6-6.3-3.5 2.6 2.4 5.6 7.2 1.4 2.2 4.1 1.9 1.3 1.3 Other Services 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.4-6.9 0.0 1.3 0.8-1.2-3.1 1.3 2.9 0.5 0.2 0.0-0.1 Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1-0.1 5.2-5.8-5.2-3.2 6.1 1.3 4.5 0.8-3.1-1.3 4.7 State & Local Government 14.8 15.0 15.9 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.6 17.0 17.4 18.0 18.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 1.9 5.4-1.3 0.3 1.1 3.0 3.5 4.4-3.4 2.1 3.3 3.5 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 250.7 253.1 257.1 259.8 261.6 263.0 265.4 267.3 269.0 271.3 273.8 276.5 279.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 Labor Force (Ths.) 106.6 110.0 113.5 114.7 115.2 114.9 114.9 115.1 115.6 114.7 115.6 116.9 118.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 3.2 3.2 1.1 0.5-0.3 0.0 0.1 0.5-0.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 Unemployment Rate (%) 12.7 16.6 17.9 17.6 16.3 14.5 12.8 11.4 10.4 9.8 9.3 8.8 8.6 Total Housing Starts 363 120 119 126 181 165 171 243 179 507 854 1042 1071 Single-Family 282 118 116 99 77 97 166 243 179 480 767 931 956 Multifamily 81 2 3 28 104 68 6 0 0 27 88 111 115 30 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
Modesto MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Total annual nonfarm employment is expected to grow 2.1% between 2016 and 2017 and 1.2% in 2018. The leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are the Professional & Business Services (6.3%); Construction & Mining (6%); and Education & Health Services (2.7%) sectors. Meanwhile, declines are expected in the Information (-2.9%), Federal Government (-1.4%), and in the Manufacturing (-0.8%) sectors. Average annual wage is forecasted to be $54,566 in 2017 and may grow approximately 4% each year through 2020. Average annual wage is expected to be $61,573 by 2020. The population in the Modesto MSA is expected to reach 548,013 in 2017 and may grow 1.1% each year reaching 566,295 in 2020. Modesto s labor force is expected to grow approximately 0.2% in 2017 and approximately 1.1% in 2018 and 2019. Unemployment is estimated to decline to 7.7% in 2017 from 8.5% in 2016 and decline to 7.5% 2019. 5000 Modesto Housing Starts 190 Modesto Payroll Employment (Thousands) 4500 180 4000 170 3500 160 3000 150 2500 140 2000 130 1500 1000 120 500 110 0 100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 Modesto Unemployment Rates (percent) Modesto Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) 19% 200 180 17% 160 15% 140 120 13% 100 11% 80 9% 60 40 7% 20 5% 0 Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. 3% Center for Business and Policy Research 31
METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO Quarterly Outlook for Modesto May 2017 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 20.7 21.2 21.4 21.7 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.7 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.6 7.3 6.4 6.3 4.9 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.4 Wages and Salaries 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.7 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.8 Nonwage Income 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.8 13.9 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 38.8 39.5 39.8 40.3 40.3 40.8 41.2 41.7 42.0 42.3 42.7 43.0 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 49.9 50.9 50.6 51.3 51.3 52.0 52.6 53.2 53.8 54.3 54.8 55.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.2 7.7 4.7 4.9 2.8 2.3 4.0 3.6 4.9 4.3 4.2 4.1 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 164.5 165.1 166.9 168.8 169.5 171.4 172.6 173.8 174.8 175.2 175.5 176.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 2.1 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.8 3.4 3.0 3.1 2.2 1.7 1.3 Manufacturing 21.3 21.2 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.7 21.8 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.9 1.2 2.7 2.1 0.5-0.3-1.1-1.2-0.6 Nonmanufacturing 143.2 143.9 145.6 147.3 148.0 149.7 150.8 152.2 153.3 153.7 154.0 154.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 2.4 3.5 3.9 3.3 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.6 2.7 2.1 1.5 Construction & Mining 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.9 8.7 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 12.5 12.9 10.4 13.5 7.3 8.1 6.2 1.4 5.9 4.6 6.1 7.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 35.4 35.6 36.1 36.4 36.7 37.1 37.3 37.8 37.7 37.9 38.0 38.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 1.8 3.3 3.6 3.6 4.3 3.6 3.8 2.8 2.0 1.7 0.7 Wholesale Trade 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 Retail Trade 22.2 22.3 22.5 22.5 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.3 23.2 23.3 23.3 23.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 7.3 7.3 7.7 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.4 Information 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 3.3-3.6-0.1 0.0 3.8 7.1 10.4 0.2-3.0-2.8-5.9 Financial Activities 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8-3.9-1.3 0.5 3.9 3.4 3.6 2.5-0.1 0.4-0.2 0.0 Prof & Business Services 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.6 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 1.1 3.3 6.7 4.6 3.7 3.5 3.1 6.8 6.9 6.4 5.2 Educ & Health Services 30.5 30.6 30.8 31.0 30.9 31.4 31.8 32.0 32.5 32.4 32.3 32.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 2.7 3.2 2.7 1.4 2.6 3.1 3.1 4.9 3.2 1.6 1.3 Leisure & Hospitality 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.3 18.6 18.6 18.8 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 3.9 4.8 5.4 5.5 5.5 4.0 3.6 3.1 2.0 2.1 1.3 Other Services 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6-0.8 1.9 3.1 3.2 3.9 2.3 2.2 2.9 2.3 2.6 1.4 Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1 0.1 0.2-0.2-0.1 0.4-0.6-2.0-3.5 State & Local Government 25.8 25.7 26.0 25.9 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 1.5 3.1 1.3 1.9 3.3 3.1 3.9 2.0 1.4 0.4-0.1 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 534.0 535.4 536.9 538.3 539.9 541.4 542.6 544.3 545.8 547.4 548.6 550.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Labor Force (Ths.) 242.5 243.7 242.1 242.7 244.7 245.2 246.5 248.0 245.4 246.2 246.9 247.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.7 1.8 2.2 0.3 0.4 0.2-0.1 Unemployment Rate (%) 9.8 9.7 9.3 9.2 8.4 8.5 8.9 8.3 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.7 Total Housing Starts 463 490 549 284 597 574 519 630 714 738 824 937 Single-Family 388 490 549 284 597 574 519 630 652 681 705 757 Multifamily 76 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 57 119 180 32 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO Quarterly Outlook for Modesto May 2017 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 24.0 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.3 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.3 27.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0 Wages and Salaries 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.4 Nonwage Income 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.2 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 43.5 43.9 44.3 44.8 45.3 45.7 46.3 46.7 47.2 47.7 48.1 48.5 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 55.9 56.4 56.9 57.5 58.1 58.7 59.4 60.0 60.6 61.2 61.9 62.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.3 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 176.7 177.3 177.9 178.4 179.0 179.5 180.1 180.6 181.0 181.3 181.6 181.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 Manufacturing 21.6 21.8 21.8 21.9 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.2 22.2 22.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 Nonmanufacturing 155.0 155.5 156.1 156.5 157.1 157.5 158.1 158.5 158.9 159.1 159.4 159.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 Construction & Mining 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.4 4.8 5.0 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.4 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 38.1 38.2 38.3 38.4 38.4 38.5 38.6 38.6 38.6 38.6 38.7 38.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 Wholesale Trade 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 Retail Trade 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.6 Information 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.3 3.2 2.1 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 Financial Activities 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.4 0.0-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.4-0.3-0.1 Prof & Business Services 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 3.9 3.9 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.1 Educ & Health Services 32.4 32.5 32.6 32.8 32.8 32.9 32.9 33.0 33.0 32.9 33.0 33.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1-0.1 Leisure & Hospitality 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.7 19.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 Other Services 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3-0.6-0.7-0.8-0.5-0.6-0.9-1.0-1.0-0.8-0.4-0.1 Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.2-4.2-3.3-2.5-2.3-2.0-1.8-1.2-1.1 13.6 4.6-1.0 State & Local Government 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 551.8 553.4 554.6 556.3 557.9 559.5 560.7 562.4 564.0 565.7 566.9 568.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Labor Force (Ths.) 248.5 249.0 249.5 250.3 251.0 251.7 252.4 253.2 254.1 254.9 255.5 256.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Unemployment Rate (%) 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 Total Housing Starts 1071 1248 1425 1598 1746 1865 1922 1935 1979 2006 2046 2065 Single-Family 839 967 1108 1250 1387 1498 1553 1568 1607 1626 1655 1665 Multifamily 232 281 318 348 359 368 369 367 372 379 391 400 Center for Business and Policy Research 33
METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO Annual Outlook for Modesto May 2017 Forecast 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 16.0 15.8 16.4 17.2 18.0 18.5 19.9 21.2 22.2 23.3 24.4 25.8 27.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6-0.8 3.9 4.8 4.2 2.8 7.7 6.9 4.6 4.9 4.9 5.4 5.2 Wages and Salaries 7.0 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.8 8.5 9.0 9.6 10.1 10.7 11.2 Nonwage Income 8.9 9.1 9.7 10.4 10.7 11.0 12.1 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.3 15.1 15.9 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 31.3 30.9 31.9 33.2 34.4 35.1 37.5 39.6 41.0 42.5 44.1 46.0 47.9 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 43.4 44.3 44.6 45.4 46.9 47.1 47.9 50.7 52.3 54.6 56.7 59.0 61.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 2.1 0.7 1.8 3.3 0.4 1.7 5.9 3.2 4.3 3.9 4.2 4.3 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 160.6 151.5 151.0 150.1 153.0 157.1 161.7 166.3 171.8 175.4 177.6 179.8 181.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9-5.7-0.3-0.5 1.9 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.3 2.1 1.2 1.3 0.9 Manufacturing 22.6 20.9 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.9 21.2 21.3 21.7 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3-7.7-0.9 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.7 0.5 1.6-0.8 1.3 1.1 0.6 Nonmanufacturing 138.0 130.6 130.3 129.5 132.3 136.3 140.5 145.0 150.2 153.9 155.8 157.8 159.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9-5.4-0.2-0.6 2.2 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.6 2.5 1.2 1.3 1.0 Construction & Mining 9.1 6.6 5.9 5.8 6.3 7.0 7.5 8.4 8.9 9.5 9.9 10.4 10.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -18.8-27.3-10.6-1.7 8.5 11.2 7.7 12.3 5.8 6.0 5.1 4.7 3.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 32.9 31.4 31.6 32.2 33.5 34.5 34.9 35.9 37.2 37.9 38.3 38.5 38.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.6-4.5 0.7 1.8 4.1 3.1 1.1 2.8 3.8 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 Wholesale Trade 6.0 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 Retail Trade 21.1 19.5 19.5 19.9 20.8 21.5 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.3 23.4 23.5 23.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 5.7 5.7 6.2 6.4 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.5 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 Information 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -19.2-30.1-4.5-8.3-13.5-5.0 2.7-0.1 5.3-2.9 3.4 0.8 1.8 Financial Activities 6.1 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2-7.6-2.6-0.9 0.4 0.0-2.6-2.1 3.4 0.0 0.3-0.2-0.2 Prof & Business Services 14.3 13.2 12.5 12.2 12.8 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.6 16.2 16.6 17.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.2-7.7-5.2-2.0 4.7 4.2 3.1 2.9 3.7 6.3 3.7 2.7 2.0 Educ & Health Services 25.9 26.8 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.8 29.8 30.7 31.5 32.4 32.6 32.9 33.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 3.9 3.5 0.0 1.3 2.4 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.7 0.6 1.0 0.2 Leisure & Hospitality 15.5 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.9 15.8 16.9 17.8 18.6 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0-5.6-0.6-0.7 3.2 5.8 7.5 4.8 4.6 2.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 Other Services 5.8 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8-10.2-2.7-4.0 0.3 2.9 4.9 1.2 2.9 2.3-0.6-0.7-0.6 Federal Government 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -18.7-1.0 12.8-9.0-0.8-6.6-3.8-0.1 0.0-1.4-3.6-1.8 4.0 State & Local Government 25.8 24.9 25.2 24.8 24.5 24.7 25.3 25.9 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6-3.2 1.3-1.8-1.0 0.7 2.6 2.2 3.1 0.9 0.3 1.4 1.3 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 509.4 512.1 515.6 518.5 521.8 525.5 530.5 536.1 542.0 548.0 554.0 560.1 566.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Labor Force (Ths.) 233.2 236.1 243.2 242.4 242.4 241.6 242.0 242.7 246.1 246.6 249.3 252.1 255.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 1.2 3.0-0.3 0.0-0.3 0.2 0.3 1.4 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 Unemployment Rate (%) 11.1 15.5 16.9 16.5 14.9 12.9 11.1 9.5 8.5 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.7 Total Housing Starts 635 375 270 212 319 311 428 446 580 803 1335 1867 2024 Single-Family 533 288 169 132 192 279 413 427 580 699 1041 1502 1638 Multifamily 102 87 101 80 127 32 15 19 0 105 295 365 386 34 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
Oakland MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Annual nonfarm employment in the Oakland MSA is expected to increase 1.5% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018. Leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are the Information, Financial Activities, and Construction sectors with 7.6%, 6.2%, and 5.4% growth, respectively. Meanwhile, declines are expected in the Federal Government (-1.7%), Manufacturing (-0.9%), and Trade, Transportation, & Utilities (-0.6%) sectors. For 2017, the average annual wage is expected to be $76,845, up from $73,483 in 2016. Average annual wages are expected to grow approximately 4% through 2020. The Oakland MSA population is expected grow to 2,819,695 in 2017, a growth of 1.1% in 2017; the population is expected to reach approximately 2,906,358 by 2020. Unemployment in Oakland is expected to decrease to 3.7% in 2017, down from 4.3% in 2016. By 2020, the unemployment rate is forecasted to be 3.3%. The labor force is expected to grow 0.4% between 2016 and 2017. Housing starts will reach 9,085 in 2017 and 10,082 in 2020. Unlike past housing starts, multifamily starts are expected to outnumber single-family starts between 2017 and 2020. 12,000 Oakland Housing Starts 1200 Oakland Payroll Employment (Thousands) 1175 10,000 1150 1125 8,000 1100 1075 6,000 1050 1025 4,000 1000 975 2,000 950 925 0 900 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Oakland Unemployment Rates (percent) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Oakland Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. 0% Center for Business and Policy Research 35
METRO SUMMARY - OAKLAND Quarterly Outlook for Oakland May 2017 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 171.0 175.2 177.8 180.5 181.2 183.9 186.6 189.5 191.1 193.5 196.0 198.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.6 8.7 7.9 7.6 5.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 Wages and Salaries 76.7 78.6 79.3 80.7 81.2 83.1 84.7 86.3 87.2 88.3 89.6 90.9 Nonwage Income 94.4 96.6 98.5 99.8 100.0 100.8 101.9 103.2 103.9 105.2 106.4 107.8 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 62.3 63.6 64.3 65.1 65.2 66.0 66.8 67.6 68.0 68.7 69.4 70.1 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 70.4 71.5 71.3 72.1 72.0 73.2 74.0 74.8 75.7 76.4 77.2 78.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 5.9 3.7 3.8 2.3 2.3 3.7 3.8 5.2 4.4 4.4 4.3 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1083.8 1092.8 1105.6 1113.3 1122.9 1129.6 1138.9 1148.2 1145.8 1150.1 1154.4 1159.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 3.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.0 3.1 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.0 Manufacturing 85.6 87.2 88.3 88.7 89.9 89.6 90.3 89.7 88.8 88.9 89.2 89.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 5.9 6.6 4.7 5.0 2.8 2.3 1.1-1.3-0.7-1.3-0.4 Nonmanufacturing 998.2 1005.6 1017.2 1024.6 1033.0 1040.0 1048.6 1058.5 1057.0 1061.2 1065.3 1070.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 2.7 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.3 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.1 Construction & Mining 62.0 62.8 63.9 65.8 67.1 68.3 69.0 69.1 70.0 71.7 72.8 73.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.9 6.8 6.1 8.9 8.1 8.7 8.0 5.0 4.4 5.0 5.5 6.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 196.2 197.4 199.1 199.7 200.7 201.8 203.4 205.2 200.7 201.0 201.8 202.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.3 3.8 3.0 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.7 0.0-0.4-0.8-1.3 Wholesale Trade 47.1 47.4 48.0 48.0 48.2 48.7 49.2 50.1 50.8 51.3 51.5 51.8 Retail Trade 112.3 112.8 113.6 113.7 114.4 114.7 115.3 115.8 111.7 112.0 112.3 112.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 36.8 37.3 37.6 38.0 38.1 38.5 39.0 39.3 38.2 37.7 38.0 38.2 Information 24.1 24.6 25.3 25.7 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.9 27.4 28.1 28.8 29.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.9 8.0 9.5 9.1 8.4 6.5 4.4 4.7 5.2 6.9 8.9 9.4 Financial Activities 55.0 55.2 55.9 56.1 56.5 57.2 57.2 58.5 59.9 60.5 61.3 62.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.7 3.7 2.4 4.2 5.9 5.8 7.2 6.0 Prof & Business Services 175.2 176.0 176.6 178.3 178.5 179.5 181.8 183.7 180.6 181.0 181.5 182.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 0.8 1.9 2.9 1.9 2.0 2.9 3.0 1.2 0.8-0.2-0.7 Educ & Health Services 175.7 177.2 180.1 181.4 183.0 184.3 185.4 186.6 189.2 189.8 190.1 190.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 2.6 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.0 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.3 Leisure & Hospitality 104.5 105.8 107.4 108.8 110.2 111.0 111.9 112.4 113.2 113.2 113.5 113.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.5 4.9 4.2 3.4 2.7 1.9 1.4 1.1 Other Services 37.7 37.9 38.2 38.6 38.9 39.0 39.5 39.5 39.4 39.4 39.3 39.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.6 2.3 3.1 3.2 2.6 3.2 2.1 1.3 1.0-0.3-0.5 Federal Government 13.8 13.9 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.5 13.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 1.4-0.4-0.7 0.2-0.2 1.2 1.2 0.3-0.5-2.4-4.1 State & Local Government 154.1 154.8 157.0 156.4 158.3 158.8 160.2 162.8 162.9 162.9 162.6 162.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 1.4 2.3 1.7 2.7 2.6 2.0 4.1 2.9 2.5 1.5-0.1 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 2746.4 2756.0 2764.3 2772.3 2779.0 2785.7 2793.3 2802.2 2808.7 2815.5 2822.9 2831.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 Labor Force (Ths.) 1369.5 1375.2 1375.5 1378.7 1379.1 1380.0 1402.4 1397.9 1388.2 1392.4 1397.9 1402.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.3 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.9-0.3 0.3 Unemployment Rate (%) 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.5 Total Housing Starts 5521 8667 7815 6629 8268 9174 8480 8961 8919 9145 9162 9116 Single-Family 3347 4853 4051 3978 5356 4331 4476 5215 3555 3815 3808 3802 Multifamily 2174 3814 3764 2651 2912 4842 4004 3747 5363 5330 5354 5314 36 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
METRO SUMMARY - OAKLAND Quarterly Outlook for Oakland May 2017 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 201.2 203.9 206.5 209.5 212.4 215.4 218.4 221.4 224.5 227.5 230.5 233.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 Wages and Salaries 92.2 93.5 94.8 96.1 97.6 99.0 100.4 101.7 103.1 104.4 105.8 107.2 Nonwage Income 109.0 110.4 111.7 113.4 114.9 116.4 118.1 119.8 121.5 123.0 124.7 126.1 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 70.9 71.7 72.4 73.2 74.1 74.9 75.8 76.6 77.5 78.4 79.2 80.0 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 78.8 79.6 80.4 81.2 82.1 83.0 83.9 84.7 85.7 86.5 87.5 88.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1164.5 1169.1 1173.2 1177.2 1182.0 1186.9 1191.0 1194.6 1197.7 1201.7 1204.1 1206.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 Manufacturing 89.9 90.4 90.7 91.0 91.3 91.5 91.7 91.8 91.9 91.9 92.0 92.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 Nonmanufacturing 1074.7 1078.7 1082.6 1086.2 1090.8 1095.4 1099.3 1102.8 1105.8 1109.8 1112.1 1114.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 Construction & Mining 75.2 75.9 76.8 77.5 78.3 79.0 79.7 80.3 80.7 81.2 81.9 82.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.4 6.0 5.6 4.9 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 202.9 203.4 204.0 204.5 205.0 205.4 205.9 206.2 206.4 206.5 206.8 207.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 Wholesale Trade 51.9 52.2 52.4 52.6 52.8 53.0 53.2 53.5 53.7 53.9 54.1 54.3 Retail Trade 112.5 112.7 112.9 113.0 113.3 113.4 113.6 113.6 113.5 113.5 113.4 113.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 38.4 38.6 38.8 38.9 38.9 39.0 39.1 39.1 39.2 39.2 39.2 39.3 Information 30.1 30.3 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 9.7 7.9 4.6 2.2-0.2-0.5 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 Financial Activities 62.6 63.0 63.6 64.2 64.6 65.1 65.1 65.1 65.1 65.0 65.1 65.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 4.1 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.3 2.4 1.5 0.7-0.2-0.1 0.0 Prof & Business Services 183.6 184.5 185.2 185.4 187.0 188.3 189.5 190.4 191.3 192.2 193.5 194.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.3 Educ & Health Services 191.6 192.6 193.4 194.2 194.8 195.4 195.9 196.6 197.0 197.2 197.7 198.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 Leisure & Hospitality 113.8 114.1 114.6 115.1 115.4 115.8 116.3 116.7 117.2 117.5 117.9 118.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 Other Services 39.2 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.1 39.0 38.9 38.8 38.8 38.8 38.8 38.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6-0.7-0.7-0.4-0.2-0.2-0.4-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.1 Federal Government 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.8 14.5 13.4 12.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.4-4.3-3.4-2.6-2.4-2.1-1.9-1.6-1.3 12.7 4.2-1.2 State & Local Government 162.6 162.6 162.6 163.2 163.6 164.4 165.0 165.6 166.1 166.3 166.6 166.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2-0.1 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.7 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 2838.2 2844.8 2852.3 2860.8 2867.2 2873.8 2881.1 2889.4 2895.8 2902.3 2909.6 2917.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Labor Force (Ths.) 1407.4 1411.8 1415.8 1420.3 1424.4 1429.0 1433.0 1437.2 1441.0 1444.4 1447.6 1449.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 Unemployment Rate (%) 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 Total Housing Starts 9019 8957 8961 9060 9121 9314 9512 9735 9894 10005 10179 10249 Single-Family 3857 3873 3935 3981 4050 4126 4178 4225 4245 4271 4301 4313 Multifamily 5162 5084 5026 5079 5071 5188 5334 5510 5649 5734 5879 5936 Center for Business and Policy Research 37
METRO SUMMARY - OAKLAND Annual Outlook for Oakland May 2017 Forecast 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 133.8 126.0 128.8 139.0 148.5 153.2 162.8 176.1 185.3 194.8 205.3 216.9 229.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5-5.8 2.3 8.0 6.8 3.2 6.3 8.2 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.7 5.6 Wages and Salaries 63.8 60.3 61.2 63.1 66.9 69.1 73.0 78.8 83.8 89.0 94.2 99.7 105.1 Nonwage Income 70.0 65.6 67.6 75.9 81.6 84.1 89.8 97.3 101.5 105.8 111.1 117.3 123.8 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 53.4 49.6 50.1 53.4 56.3 57.2 59.8 63.8 66.4 69.1 72.1 75.4 78.8 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 60.4 60.6 62.7 64.0 65.9 66.2 68.3 71.3 73.5 76.8 80.0 83.4 87.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 0.3 3.4 2.2 3.1 0.4 3.2 4.5 3.0 4.6 4.1 4.3 4.3 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1050.4 990.1 970.4 980.4 1008.7 1037.9 1063.2 1098.9 1134.9 1152.4 1171.0 1188.6 1202.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3-5.7-2.0 1.0 2.9 2.9 2.4 3.3 3.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.2 Manufacturing 91.6 81.5 78.6 79.8 79.9 80.0 82.8 87.5 89.9 89.0 90.5 91.5 92.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4-11.0-3.5 1.5 0.1 0.2 3.4 5.7 2.8-0.9 1.6 1.2 0.4 Nonmanufacturing 958.8 908.6 891.8 900.6 928.8 957.9 980.5 1011.4 1045.0 1063.4 1080.5 1097.1 1110.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3-5.2-1.8 1.0 3.1 3.1 2.4 3.2 3.3 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.2 Construction & Mining 66.1 54.8 48.6 48.6 52.9 57.3 59.4 63.6 68.4 72.1 76.4 79.3 81.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.3-17.2-11.1 0.1 8.9 8.3 3.7 7.2 7.4 5.4 6.0 3.8 2.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 193.2 179.2 173.8 175.7 180.6 186.3 191.6 198.1 202.8 201.5 203.7 205.6 206.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.1-7.2-3.0 1.1 2.8 3.2 2.8 3.4 2.4-0.6 1.1 0.9 0.5 Wholesale Trade 47.7 43.7 41.9 42.2 43.7 45.2 46.1 47.6 49.0 51.3 52.3 53.1 54.0 Retail Trade 110.1 103.1 101.1 101.9 104.7 108.3 110.4 113.1 115.0 112.1 112.8 113.5 113.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 35.4 32.4 30.8 31.6 32.3 32.9 35.0 37.4 38.7 38.0 38.7 39.0 39.2 Information 28.0 25.5 23.9 23.1 22.9 22.7 23.0 24.9 26.4 28.4 30.1 30.2 30.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.7-9.0-6.1-3.4-0.9-1.2 1.5 8.4 6.0 7.6 6.1 0.1 1.1 Financial Activities 52.7 48.0 48.7 49.3 51.4 53.3 54.1 55.5 57.3 60.9 63.3 65.0 65.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.3-8.8 1.4 1.3 4.2 3.8 1.4 2.7 3.3 6.2 3.9 2.7 0.1 Prof & Business Services 163.2 151.1 151.9 157.0 165.4 170.4 173.5 176.5 180.9 181.4 184.7 188.8 192.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3-7.5 0.6 3.4 5.3 3.1 1.8 1.8 2.5 0.3 1.8 2.2 2.2 Educ & Health Services 153.1 157.8 158.8 159.0 164.7 170.5 173.0 178.6 184.8 190.0 193.0 195.7 197.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.4 3.0 0.6 0.1 3.6 3.5 1.5 3.2 3.5 2.8 1.5 1.4 1.0 Leisure & Hospitality 89.1 85.1 85.8 88.3 91.8 97.2 102.0 106.6 111.4 113.4 114.4 116.1 117.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2-4.5 0.9 2.9 4.0 5.9 5.0 4.5 4.5 1.8 0.9 1.5 1.4 Other Services 36.1 34.7 35.0 35.7 36.3 36.9 37.5 38.1 39.2 39.3 39.1 39.0 38.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2-4.0 0.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.7 2.8 0.4-0.6-0.4-0.4 Federal Government 17.1 16.7 15.7 14.6 14.2 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.6 13.1 12.9 13.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2-2.3-5.8-7.0-2.6-3.2 0.1 0.2 0.6-1.7-3.7-2.0 3.6 State & Local Government 160.1 155.8 149.5 149.3 148.6 149.5 152.7 155.6 160.0 162.7 162.8 164.6 166.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.0-2.7-4.0-0.1-0.5 0.6 2.1 1.9 2.9 1.7 0.0 1.2 1.1 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 2505.0 2539.9 2570.7 2602.9 2639.3 2680.7 2722.3 2759.8 2790.1 2819.7 2849.0 2877.9 2906.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 Labor Force (Ths.) 1304.0 1309.6 1307.9 1316.3 1336.3 1344.2 1355.6 1374.7 1389.9 1395.3 1413.8 1430.9 1445.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 0.4-0.1 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.2 10.1 10.9 10.2 8.8 7.3 5.9 4.9 4.3 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.3 Total Housing Starts 4258 2825 3162 3081 4460 4617 5189 7158 8721 9085 8999 9421 10082 Single-Family 2110 1902 1919 1619 2729 3078 3309 4057 4844 3745 3912 4145 4282 Multifamily 2148 923 1243 1462 1731 1539 1880 3101 3876 5340 5088 5276 5799 38 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
Sacramento MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Total nonfarm employment in the Sacramento MSA is expected to increase 1.1% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018. The leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are the Education & Health Services (3.7%); Leisure & Hospitality (3.1%); and Professional & Business Services (1.9%) sectors. Declines are forecasted for the Information (-6.2%), Other Services (-3.3%), Construction & Mining, and Manufacturing (-1.7%) sectors. The average annual wage for 2017 is predicted to be $63,450, an increase of 2.1% from the previous year. By 2020, the average annual wage is forecasted to be $71,593. The population of the Sacramento MSA is expected to be 2,327,275 in 2017, an increase of 1.2% from 2016. The labor force is expected to decline by 0.2% in 2017. The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.7% in 2017, down from 5.2% in 2016; unemployment is forecasted to be 4.6% in 2020. Approximately 9,615 housing starts are expected in 2017, growing to 13,999 in 2020; most of the housing starts in the area are single-family starts. 25000 Sacramento Housing Starts 1000 Sacramento Payroll Employment (Thousands) 20000 950 900 15000 850 10000 800 5000 750 0 700 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Sacramento Unemployment Rate (percent) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Sacramento Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. 2% Center for Business and Policy Research 39
METRO SUMMARY - SACRAMENTO Quarterly Outlook for Sacramento May 2017 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 109.9 112.4 114.0 115.3 116.1 117.8 119.5 120.2 120.4 121.9 123.3 124.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.8 7.0 6.5 6.2 5.6 4.8 4.9 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.9 Wages and Salaries 54.3 55.6 56.3 57.2 57.7 59.1 60.2 60.2 60.0 60.8 61.6 62.4 Nonwage Income 55.6 56.7 57.7 58.1 58.3 58.7 59.3 60.0 60.4 61.1 61.8 62.5 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 48.6 49.6 50.1 50.5 50.7 51.3 51.9 52.0 52.0 52.4 52.9 53.4 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 59.8 60.7 60.7 61.1 61.2 62.1 62.7 62.5 62.5 63.1 63.8 64.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 4.4 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.3 3.2 2.3 2.1 1.6 1.8 2.9 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 904.7 911.8 923.0 931.2 938.6 947.3 956.5 957.5 955.9 958.3 961.5 965.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 2.7 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.6 2.8 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.9 Manufacturing 36.0 36.4 36.5 36.6 36.6 36.2 36.2 35.8 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.5 2.4 1.8 1.7-0.3-0.7-2.2-2.6-1.8-1.7-0.7 Nonmanufacturing 868.7 875.4 886.5 894.6 902.0 911.1 920.2 921.7 920.3 922.7 925.9 930.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 2.7 3.5 3.8 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.0 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.9 Construction & Mining 48.4 49.7 51.1 53.4 53.8 55.4 56.3 54.3 52.8 53.0 53.5 54.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.3 8.8 10.1 14.9 11.3 11.4 10.2 1.7-1.9-4.3-5.0-0.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 145.0 146.4 147.9 149.5 150.5 151.8 153.0 152.8 153.2 153.2 154.6 155.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.4 2.2 1.8 1.0 1.0 1.8 Wholesale Trade 24.2 24.6 24.7 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.7 25.5 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.0 Retail Trade 96.4 97.6 98.5 99.3 99.9 100.3 101.1 101.3 101.1 101.2 101.3 101.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 24.3 24.3 24.8 25.1 25.4 26.0 26.2 26.0 26.3 26.2 27.3 28.3 Information 14.1 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.1 12.8 12.9 13.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.1 1.5-0.3-1.5-2.5-2.8-2.7-6.3-7.2-6.5-5.0 Financial Activities 50.2 50.8 51.2 51.2 51.2 51.5 52.2 52.9 52.6 53.0 53.3 53.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 4.5 4.6 3.2 2.1 1.5 2.0 3.3 2.6 2.8 2.2 1.1 Prof & Business Services 118.4 118.9 121.2 122.3 125.8 128.1 129.3 131.4 130.7 130.7 130.7 132.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 0.5 2.3 3.0 6.2 7.8 6.6 7.4 3.9 2.0 1.1 0.5 Educ & Health Services 137.6 139.1 141.2 142.3 143.6 145.0 146.6 148.5 150.2 151.1 151.7 152.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.3 4.2 3.8 4.4 4.6 4.3 3.5 2.6 Leisure & Hospitality 93.8 94.4 96.1 97.2 98.2 99.3 100.2 102.0 102.0 102.8 103.3 103.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 3.2 3.8 5.0 4.7 5.2 4.3 5.0 3.9 3.5 3.1 1.8 Other Services 30.5 30.8 30.9 31.3 31.3 31.3 32.0 30.5 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.6 2.6 1.4 3.3-2.6-3.5-3.3-5.5-0.7 Federal Government 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.9 1.4 1.8 3.2 2.8 3.2 1.8-1.4-3.2 State & Local Government 217.1 217.4 218.9 219.5 219.8 221.0 222.8 221.4 221.1 221.7 221.8 221.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 1.1 2.6 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.3-0.5 0.2 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) 2260.8 2267.6 2274.5 2281.5 2288.7 2295.9 2301.9 2309.1 2316.6 2324.1 2330.4 2337.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Labor Force (Ths) 1056.6 1061.0 1061.2 1061.6 1059.4 1063.1 1079.2 1085.5 1071.4 1064.8 1069.0 1072.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 1.7 2.3 1.1 0.2-1.0-1.2 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.6 Total Housing Starts 4346 6233 6578 6818 6821 6978 8172 9270 8465 9339 10023 10631 Single-Family 3694 5615 5606 6163 5887 6064 7257 8770 6856 7804 8178 8516 Multifamily 651 619 972 655 935 914 915 501 1609 1534 1846 2115 40 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
METRO SUMMARY - SACRAMENTO Quarterly Outlook for Sacramento May 2017 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 126.6 128.3 129.9 131.8 133.8 135.7 137.6 139.4 141.4 143.2 144.9 146.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 Wages and Salaries 63.3 64.2 65.1 66.0 66.9 67.9 68.9 69.8 70.7 71.6 72.5 73.3 Nonwage Income 63.3 64.1 64.9 65.8 66.8 67.8 68.7 69.6 70.6 71.6 72.4 73.3 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 54.0 54.5 55.1 55.7 56.3 56.9 57.5 58.1 58.7 59.2 59.8 60.2 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 65.0 65.6 66.3 67.0 67.7 68.4 69.1 69.8 70.5 71.2 72.0 72.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.2 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 969.6 973.4 977.0 980.8 984.6 988.7 992.6 996.2 998.5 1001.9 1003.0 1004.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.8 Manufacturing 35.6 35.7 35.6 35.6 35.5 35.5 35.6 35.7 35.8 35.8 35.8 35.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.2 0.0-0.1-0.4-0.5 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 Nonmanufacturing 934.0 937.7 941.4 945.3 949.1 953.2 957.0 960.5 962.8 966.1 967.2 968.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 Construction & Mining 54.7 55.4 56.1 56.8 57.4 58.1 58.7 59.3 59.7 60.2 60.7 61.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 4.6 5.0 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 156.0 156.4 156.8 157.3 157.7 158.1 158.5 158.8 159.0 159.1 159.3 159.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 Wholesale Trade 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 Retail Trade 101.5 101.7 102.0 102.3 102.6 102.8 103.1 103.2 103.3 103.3 103.4 103.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 Information 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 3.0 2.8 1.5 0.4-0.2 0.6 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.4 Financial Activities 53.5 53.5 53.5 53.6 53.6 53.6 53.6 53.7 53.7 53.6 53.7 53.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 Prof & Business Services 133.5 134.8 136.0 136.8 137.9 138.8 139.6 140.3 140.9 141.6 142.5 143.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 3.2 4.1 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.2 Educ & Health Services 152.9 153.6 154.3 154.9 155.4 155.9 156.3 156.9 156.2 155.4 154.8 154.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.5-0.3-1.0-1.7 Leisure & Hospitality 104.4 104.8 105.3 105.8 106.2 106.7 107.1 107.6 108.2 108.6 109.0 109.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Other Services 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0-0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3 0.0 0.3 Federal Government 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 15.2 14.0 13.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.0-3.9-3.0-2.2-1.9-1.7-1.4-1.0-0.7 13.5 4.9-0.7 State & Local Government 221.9 222.2 222.3 223.3 224.0 225.2 226.2 227.3 228.2 228.9 229.4 229.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.2 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) 2345.8 2353.6 2360.3 2368.1 2376.5 2384.7 2391.7 2399.8 2408.6 2417.1 2424.4 2433.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 Labor Force (Ths) 1076.9 1080.8 1084.5 1088.8 1092.9 1097.0 1100.6 1104.4 1107.9 1111.3 1114.9 1118.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 Unemployment Rate (%) 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 Total Housing Starts 11239 11659 12059 12368 12620 12921 13177 13463 13685 13882 14135 14294 Single-Family 8930 9158 9388 9507 9653 9824 9986 10197 10355 10519 10696 10826 Multifamily 2309 2501 2672 2861 2968 3097 3191 3266 3331 3363 3440 3468 Center for Business and Policy Research 41
METRO SUMMARY - SACRAMENTO Annual Outlook for Sacramento May 2017 Forecast 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 88.0 86.1 87.9 92.9 97.1 100.0 105.9 112.9 118.4 122.6 129.2 136.6 144.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7-2.1 2.1 5.7 4.5 3.0 5.9 6.6 4.9 3.6 5.3 5.8 5.4 Wages and Salaries 47.2 45.3 44.9 46.3 48.6 50.0 52.5 55.9 59.3 61.2 64.6 68.4 72.0 Nonwage Income 40.8 40.9 43.0 46.7 48.5 50.0 53.4 57.0 59.1 61.4 64.5 68.2 72.0 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 41.7 40.3 40.8 42.7 44.2 45.1 47.2 49.7 51.5 52.7 54.8 57.2 59.5 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 52.0 52.8 53.7 55.5 57.1 57.3 58.7 60.6 62.1 63.4 66.0 68.7 71.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 1.4 1.9 3.3 2.9 0.3 2.4 3.2 2.6 2.1 4.0 4.2 4.1 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 902.6 853.6 831.2 829.0 846.5 869.0 889.5 917.7 950.0 960.4 975.2 990.5 1002.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.0-5.4-2.6-0.3 2.1 2.7 2.4 3.2 3.5 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.2 Manufacturing 38.7 34.4 32.8 33.2 33.9 34.1 35.4 36.4 36.2 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.2-11.1-4.7 1.3 2.0 0.7 3.6 2.8-0.4-1.7 0.0-0.1 0.7 Nonmanufacturing 863.9 819.1 798.4 795.8 812.6 834.9 854.2 881.3 913.8 924.8 939.6 955.0 966.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9-5.2-2.5-0.3 2.1 2.7 2.3 3.2 3.7 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.2 Construction & Mining 56.9 44.1 38.8 37.4 38.8 43.7 45.9 50.6 55.0 53.3 55.8 58.4 60.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -15.9-22.6-11.6-3.7 3.7 12.7 5.1 10.3 8.6-2.9 4.6 4.7 3.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 146.7 134.9 132.6 134.2 138.9 141.6 143.3 147.2 152.0 154.2 156.6 158.3 159.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.2-8.0-1.7 1.2 3.6 2.0 1.2 2.7 3.3 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.6 Wholesale Trade 26.5 24.1 22.8 23.7 25.2 25.0 24.5 24.6 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.6 27.0 Retail Trade 95.2 87.6 88.0 89.4 91.8 93.8 95.3 97.9 100.6 101.3 101.9 102.9 103.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 25.1 23.2 21.7 21.1 21.9 22.9 23.6 24.6 25.9 27.0 28.5 28.8 28.9 Information 19.2 18.3 17.2 16.3 15.6 14.8 13.9 14.1 13.8 12.9 13.2 13.3 13.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.1-4.8-6.0-5.0-4.6-5.2-6.0 1.9-2.4-6.2 1.9 0.6 1.7 Financial Activities 57.2 52.9 48.3 46.7 48.2 49.4 48.9 50.8 51.9 53.1 53.5 53.6 53.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.1-7.5-8.6-3.4 3.2 2.5-1.0 3.9 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 Prof & Business Services 110.2 101.2 102.3 104.4 111.1 114.6 118.2 120.2 128.6 131.0 135.3 139.2 142.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8-8.1 1.1 2.1 6.4 3.2 3.1 1.7 7.0 1.9 3.2 2.9 2.1 Educ & Health Services 119.9 121.7 120.7 122.5 125.6 130.6 134.3 140.1 145.9 151.3 153.9 156.1 155.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 1.5-0.9 1.5 2.5 4.0 2.8 4.3 4.2 3.7 1.7 1.4-0.6 Leisure & Hospitality 85.9 81.9 80.2 81.7 84.5 88.7 91.8 95.4 99.9 103.0 105.1 106.9 108.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9-4.6-2.0 1.9 3.4 5.0 3.4 3.9 4.8 3.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 Other Services 29.6 28.8 28.1 28.0 28.5 29.0 30.2 30.9 31.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3-2.6-2.4-0.5 1.9 1.6 4.2 2.3 1.1-3.3 0.0-0.1-0.1 Federal Government 12.5 13.3 14.6 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.5 13.7 14.1 14.1 13.6 13.4 14.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 6.2 10.6-4.1-1.9-1.9 0.5 1.4 2.3 0.1-3.3-1.5 4.2 State & Local Government 225.9 222.0 215.6 210.6 207.7 209.0 214.2 218.2 221.3 221.6 222.4 225.7 229.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4-1.7-2.9-2.3-1.4 0.6 2.5 1.9 1.4 0.2 0.4 1.4 1.5 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) 2111.2 2135.3 2156.9 2177.1 2196.5 2218.1 2243.9 2271.1 2298.9 2327.3 2357.0 2388.2 2420.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 Labor Force (Ths) 1045.6 1051.4 1049.6 1045.1 1049.9 1048.9 1050.8 1060.1 1071.8 1069.5 1082.7 1098.7 1113.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.6-0.2-0.4 0.5-0.1 0.2 0.9 1.1-0.2 1.2 1.5 1.3 Unemployment Rate (%) 7.1 10.9 12.3 11.8 10.3 8.7 7.1 5.9 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.6 Total Housing Starts 5532 2925 2563 2817 3423 4142 4251 5994 7810 9615 11832 13045 13999 Single-Family 4291 2721 2247 2071 2943 3561 3909 5270 6994 7839 9246 9915 10599 Multifamily 1241 203 316 746 480 581 342 724 816 1776 2586 3130 3400 42 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
San Francisco MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Annual nonfarm employment is expected to grow 2.1% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. The expected leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are the Information (5.8%), Financial Activities (3.9%), and Education & Health Services (3.1%) sectors. Meanwhile, declines are expected in the Federal Government (-1.7%) and State & Local Government (-0.4%) sectors. The average annual wage is expected to be $117,457 in 2017, an increase of 5.8% from 2016. The average annual wage is predicted to be $134,521 in 2020. The San Francisco MSA population is expected to reach 1,650,700 in 2017, an increase of 0.7% from the previous year. The labor force is expected to grow 0.7% in 2017 as well as 1.4% in 2018. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 2.7% in 2017 from 3.2% in 2016 and is expected to stay at approximately 2.5% through 2020. Housing starts are expected to have declining rates from the previous year beginning in 2017 through 2020. 6000 San Francisco Housing Starts 1200 San Francisco Payroll Employment (Thousands) 5000 1150 1100 4000 1050 3000 1000 2000 950 900 1000 850 0 800 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 3% San Francisco Unemployment Rates (percent) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 San Francisco Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. 1% Center for Business and Policy Research 43
METRO SUMMARY - SAN FRANCISCO Quarterly Outlook for San Francisco May 2017 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 159.5 163.3 165.7 168.2 169.2 172.7 175.6 178.2 181.0 183.8 186.7 189.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.2 8.0 7.2 7.3 6.1 5.7 6.0 6.0 7.0 6.5 6.3 6.5 Wages and Salaries 108.9 111.7 113.4 115.9 117.1 120.7 123.1 125.5 128.1 130.1 132.4 134.7 Nonwage Income 50.6 51.6 52.2 52.3 52.1 52.0 52.5 52.7 52.9 53.7 54.4 55.2 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 98.4 100.5 101.7 103.0 103.5 105.4 107.0 108.4 109.9 111.5 113.0 114.7 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 105.1 107.0 107.0 108.3 108.1 110.5 111.8 113.7 115.4 116.8 118.1 119.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 4.7 3.0 3.9 2.8 3.3 4.6 5.0 6.8 5.7 5.6 5.1 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1032.5 1041.5 1057.8 1068.0 1080.1 1089.5 1097.8 1101.6 1106.7 1111.6 1117.8 1124.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 4.7 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.6 3.8 3.1 2.5 2.0 1.8 2.1 Manufacturing 36.0 35.7 36.2 36.6 37.1 37.7 37.9 37.3 37.6 37.6 37.7 37.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 0.6 1.6 1.9 2.9 5.6 4.9 1.9 1.2-0.2-0.5 1.3 Nonmanufacturing 996.5 1005.8 1021.7 1031.4 1043.0 1051.8 1059.8 1064.3 1069.2 1074.0 1080.1 1086.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 4.8 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.6 3.7 3.2 2.5 2.1 1.9 2.1 Construction & Mining 35.4 35.1 36.3 37.4 37.1 38.1 39.1 39.1 39.0 38.8 38.6 38.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 12.7 6.5 9.4 13.1 4.6 8.5 7.7 4.7 5.3 1.8-1.2-0.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 147.5 148.9 150.6 151.7 153.4 154.1 155.9 156.8 157.7 157.7 158.5 159.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 3.2 3.6 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.4 2.8 2.3 1.7 1.6 Wholesale Trade 26.6 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.2 27.4 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 Retail Trade 80.5 80.6 81.1 80.4 80.9 80.7 80.6 81.0 81.5 81.9 82.3 82.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 40.4 41.4 42.5 44.1 45.3 46.1 47.4 47.8 48.4 48.1 48.4 48.8 Information 60.0 62.2 64.4 65.9 68.2 69.8 71.6 72.5 72.9 74.4 75.2 75.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 14.0 15.8 15.8 13.8 13.7 12.2 11.2 10.0 6.8 6.6 5.0 4.6 Financial Activities 73.7 74.3 75.9 76.8 77.5 78.4 78.7 80.0 80.6 81.4 82.2 82.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 3.8 5.0 5.7 5.1 5.5 3.7 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.4 3.5 Prof & Business Services 253.4 257.0 262.4 265.2 269.4 272.1 273.0 272.8 272.5 274.3 276.4 279.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.9 6.5 7.0 6.3 6.3 5.9 4.0 2.8 1.1 0.8 1.3 2.4 Educ & Health Services 128.8 129.0 130.3 131.2 131.4 132.2 133.2 133.3 135.7 136.4 137.0 137.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 2.5 3.5 3.4 2.0 2.5 2.2 1.6 3.3 3.2 2.8 3.1 Leisure & Hospitality 134.0 135.3 137.1 137.8 139.5 139.7 139.2 140.9 141.7 142.9 144.4 145.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.3 4.1 3.3 1.5 2.3 1.6 2.3 3.7 3.4 Other Services 40.2 40.0 39.9 40.0 40.4 40.5 41.0 41.3 41.4 41.7 41.9 42.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 1.3-0.1 0.0 0.5 1.1 2.8 3.1 2.7 3.0 2.2 1.8 Federal Government 17.6 17.7 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.6 17.3 17.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.6-0.5-2.4-4.3 State & Local Government 105.7 106.2 107.2 107.7 108.4 109.2 110.4 109.8 109.9 108.8 108.6 108.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.4 3.9 3.1 2.6 2.8 3.0 1.9 1.4-0.3-1.6-1.2 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1620.7 1625.2 1628.9 1632.3 1635.0 1637.6 1640.9 1644.1 1646.6 1649.1 1652.1 1655.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Labor Force (Ths.) 980.3 987.5 992.9 999.0 1000.6 999.4 1013.5 1016.8 1008.8 1012.4 1016.7 1020.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.1 1.2 2.1 1.8 0.8 1.3 0.3 0.4 Unemployment Rate (%) 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 3759 4642 4723 4537 4424 5592 4747 7762 3684 4818 4471 4157 Single-Family 491 530 701 919 364 567 768 1080 432 452 435 426 Multifamily 3267 4112 4023 3618 4060 5025 3980 6682 3252 4366 4036 3731 44 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
METRO SUMMARY - SAN FRANCISCO Quarterly Outlook for San Francisco May 2017 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 193.1 196.2 199.3 202.7 206.0 209.2 212.4 215.4 218.6 221.8 224.9 228.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.9 Wages and Salaries 137.0 139.3 141.4 143.7 145.9 148.2 150.4 152.6 154.7 157.0 159.2 161.4 Nonwage Income 56.1 56.9 57.8 59.0 60.1 61.0 62.0 62.8 63.9 64.8 65.7 66.6 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 116.5 118.2 119.9 121.7 123.5 125.3 127.0 128.6 130.4 132.1 133.8 135.4 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 120.8 122.2 123.5 124.9 126.3 127.7 129.2 130.6 132.1 133.6 135.3 137.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1131.0 1137.4 1142.8 1148.1 1152.4 1157.3 1161.4 1164.9 1167.9 1172.0 1173.9 1175.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 Manufacturing 38.0 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.3 38.3 38.3 38.3 38.2 38.2 38.1 38.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.7 Nonmanufacturing 1093.0 1099.3 1104.6 1109.9 1114.1 1119.0 1123.2 1126.7 1129.7 1133.8 1135.8 1137.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 Construction & Mining 39.5 39.9 40.5 40.9 41.3 41.8 42.2 42.5 42.7 42.9 43.2 43.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 2.9 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 159.7 160.1 160.7 161.2 161.6 162.0 162.4 162.7 162.9 162.9 163.1 163.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 Wholesale Trade 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 Retail Trade 82.7 82.8 83.0 83.2 83.4 83.6 83.8 83.8 83.8 83.8 83.9 83.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 49.0 49.3 49.6 49.7 49.8 49.9 50.0 50.1 50.2 50.2 50.2 50.2 Information 76.3 76.8 76.4 76.4 76.2 76.4 76.9 77.1 77.3 77.4 77.6 77.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 3.3 1.6 0.8-0.2-0.5 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.6 Financial Activities 83.1 83.2 83.4 83.6 83.6 83.7 83.7 83.7 83.8 83.6 83.7 83.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 Prof & Business Services 282.4 286.3 289.9 292.8 295.5 298.3 300.3 302.1 303.6 305.0 306.9 309.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 4.4 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.2 3.6 3.2 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.3 Educ & Health Services 138.0 138.5 139.1 139.6 139.9 140.2 140.4 140.7 141.0 141.0 141.2 141.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 Leisure & Hospitality 147.0 147.5 148.2 148.7 149.2 149.7 150.2 150.6 151.2 151.5 151.9 152.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 3.2 2.6 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 Other Services 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.1 42.0 42.0 41.9 41.8 41.8 41.7 41.7 41.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.1 Federal Government 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.2 18.4 17.0 16.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.7-4.6-3.8-3.0-2.7-2.5-2.2-1.9-1.6 12.5 4.0-1.5 State & Local Government 108.2 108.1 107.9 108.2 108.3 108.7 108.9 109.2 109.3 109.4 109.4 109.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5-0.7-0.7-0.3 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1657.4 1659.8 1662.5 1665.4 1667.6 1669.7 1672.3 1674.9 1676.9 1678.9 1681.3 1683.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 Labor Force (Ths.) 1024.2 1027.8 1030.6 1034.0 1037.0 1039.6 1041.4 1043.2 1044.6 1045.7 1046.7 1047.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Unemployment Rate (%) 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 3835 3626 3451 3363 3257 3245 3259 3200 3145 3149 3192 3145 Single-Family 429 430 434 434 436 441 445 450 450 455 457 459 Multifamily 3405 3195 3017 2929 2821 2805 2815 2750 2696 2694 2735 2686 Center for Business and Policy Research 45
METRO SUMMARY - SAN FRANCISCO Annual Outlook for San Francisco May 2017 Forecast 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 114.8 110.3 114.2 124.1 137.9 139.9 152.8 164.2 173.9 185.4 197.8 210.7 223.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8-3.9 3.6 8.6 11.1 1.5 9.3 7.4 5.9 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.0 Wages and Salaries 72.0 69.3 69.7 75.0 90.3 95.7 103.6 112.5 121.6 131.3 140.4 149.3 158.1 Nonwage Income 42.9 41.0 44.5 49.1 47.6 44.2 49.2 51.7 52.3 54.0 57.5 61.5 65.2 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 76.7 72.7 74.7 80.2 87.8 87.9 94.9 100.9 106.1 112.3 119.1 126.1 132.9 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 78.8 79.7 80.8 84.7 97.4 99.4 103.2 106.8 111.0 117.5 122.8 128.5 134.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 1.1 1.4 4.8 15.0 2.1 3.8 3.6 3.9 5.8 4.6 4.6 4.7 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 910.3 867.1 859.0 881.8 923.6 958.9 1001.1 1050.0 1092.2 1115.2 1139.8 1159.0 1172.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3-4.7-0.9 2.6 4.7 3.8 4.4 4.9 4.0 2.1 2.2 1.7 1.2 Manufacturing 40.1 36.1 35.0 34.4 34.0 34.7 35.6 36.1 37.5 37.7 38.1 38.3 38.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.2-9.9-3.0-1.6-1.1 2.1 2.5 1.6 3.8 0.4 1.2 0.4-0.4 Nonmanufacturing 870.2 831.0 824.1 847.4 889.6 924.2 965.6 1013.8 1054.7 1077.5 1101.7 1120.7 1134.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5-4.5-0.8 2.8 5.0 3.9 4.5 5.0 4.0 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.2 Construction & Mining 37.4 29.5 27.0 27.4 28.9 30.5 32.7 36.0 38.3 38.8 40.2 41.9 43.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.7-21.1-8.3 1.7 5.5 5.3 7.2 10.4 6.4 1.4 3.4 4.4 2.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 142.3 133.4 130.1 130.8 135.5 140.8 144.9 149.7 155.1 158.3 160.4 162.1 163.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2-6.3-2.5 0.6 3.6 3.9 2.9 3.3 3.6 2.1 1.4 1.1 0.6 Wholesale Trade 24.1 22.2 21.6 22.3 23.5 24.7 25.6 26.9 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.5 29.0 Retail Trade 79.6 74.5 73.3 73.7 75.6 77.5 79.6 80.7 80.8 82.1 82.9 83.6 83.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 38.6 36.7 35.3 34.9 36.4 38.7 39.7 42.1 46.6 48.4 49.4 50.0 50.2 Information 38.6 37.6 36.9 40.6 46.3 49.5 55.0 63.1 70.5 74.6 76.5 76.6 77.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1-2.6-1.8 10.0 14.2 6.9 10.9 14.8 11.8 5.8 2.6 0.2 1.1 Financial Activities 76.2 69.4 67.1 66.4 67.9 70.0 71.9 75.2 78.7 81.7 83.3 83.7 83.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3-9.0-3.2-1.0 2.2 3.1 2.7 4.6 4.6 3.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 Prof & Business Services 192.1 182.3 182.0 195.8 214.2 227.9 243.9 259.5 271.8 275.6 287.9 299.1 306.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2-5.1-0.1 7.6 9.4 6.4 7.0 6.4 4.8 1.4 4.4 3.9 2.4 Educ & Health Services 112.3 115.2 116.4 116.8 120.0 123.3 126.0 129.8 132.5 136.7 138.8 140.3 141.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.7 2.7 1.1 0.3 2.7 2.8 2.1 3.1 2.1 3.1 1.6 1.1 0.6 Leisure & Hospitality 113.9 109.8 110.5 115.0 121.5 125.7 131.1 136.1 139.8 143.7 147.8 149.9 151.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0-3.7 0.7 4.1 5.6 3.5 4.3 3.8 2.8 2.7 2.9 1.4 1.2 Other Services 34.5 33.2 32.8 34.1 35.8 37.6 39.6 40.0 40.8 41.7 42.0 41.9 41.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6-3.6-1.3 3.9 4.9 5.2 5.2 1.0 1.9 2.4 0.7-0.2-0.4 Federal Government 18.4 17.9 19.3 18.3 17.9 17.5 17.5 17.7 17.7 17.5 16.7 16.4 16.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6-2.3 7.5-5.0-2.1-2.0-0.2 0.9 0.5-1.7-4.0-2.4 3.3 State & Local Government 104.6 102.7 102.0 102.1 101.5 101.3 103.1 106.7 109.4 109.0 108.1 108.8 109.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2-1.8-0.7 0.1-0.5-0.3 1.9 3.4 2.6-0.4-0.8 0.6 0.6 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1497.4 1516.3 1528.8 1548.0 1570.9 1590.6 1609.4 1626.8 1639.4 1650.7 1661.3 1671.1 1680.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 Labor Force (Ths.) 872.5 877.4 879.0 894.3 922.9 937.6 961.2 989.9 1007.6 1014.6 1029.1 1040.3 1046.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 0.6 0.2 1.7 3.2 1.6 2.5 3.0 1.8 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.6 Unemployment Rate (%) 5.1 8.5 8.7 7.8 6.6 5.4 4.3 3.5 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 Total Housing Starts 2492 680 797 2588 3500 4682 3861 4415 5631 4282 3569 3240 3158 Single-Family 425 280 251 299 352 422 443 660 695 436 432 443 455 Multifamily 2067 400 546 2290 3148 4260 3418 3755 4937 3846 3137 2797 2703 46 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
San Jose MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Total annual nonfarm employment is expected to grow 1.4% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018. The leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are in the Leisure & Hospitality (4.8%), Information (2.6%), and Professional & Business Services (1.9%), and State & Local Government (1.9%) sectors. In 2017, declines are expected in the Trade, Transportation, & Utilities (-0.8%); Construction & Mining (-0.7%); and Financial Activities (-0.7%) sectors. In 2017, the average annual wage is estimated to be $127,305, an increase of 3.9% from 2016. By 2020, the average annual wage may reach $146,798. The San Jose MSA population is expected to reach 1,996,468 in 2017, an increase of 0.6% from the previous year. The population will continue to grow 0.6% each year reaching 2,033,985 in 2020. The labor force is expected to decline -1.1% in 2017. The unemployment rate is forecasted to be 3.3% in 2017, down from 3.8% in 2016, and the unemployment rate is expected to reach 3.0% in 2018. Approximately 6,846 housing starts are expected in 2017, an increase from 2016. Most of the housing starts in recent and upcoming years are multifamily starts. 9000 San Jose Housing Starts 1150 San Jose Payroll Employment (Thousands) 8000 1100 7000 6000 1050 5000 1000 4000 950 3000 900 2000 1000 850 0 800 13% San Jose Unemployment Rates (percent) 250 San Jose Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) 11% 200 9% 150 7% 100 5% 50 3% 0 Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. 1% Center for Business and Policy Research 47
METRO SUMMARY - SAN JOSE Quarterly Outlook for San Jose May 2017 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 158.1 161.6 161.7 163.8 163.9 167.3 170.9 172.5 173.1 175.7 178.6 181.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.7 9.3 6.5 6.7 3.7 3.6 5.7 5.3 5.6 5.0 4.5 5.2 Wages and Salaries 119.7 123.4 124.1 127.1 127.2 130.6 133.8 134.9 135.4 137.5 139.8 142.3 Nonwage Income 38.3 38.1 37.6 36.7 36.6 36.8 37.2 37.6 37.7 38.2 38.7 39.2 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 80.5 82.1 82.0 82.9 82.8 84.4 86.1 86.7 86.9 88.1 89.4 90.7 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 116.6 119.0 118.2 120.2 119.7 122.1 123.7 124.4 125.1 126.5 128.0 129.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 9.5 10.7 6.5 7.0 2.7 2.6 4.7 3.4 4.5 3.6 3.5 4.2 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1023.4 1033.5 1046.3 1053.9 1059.3 1065.6 1077.4 1081.6 1078.8 1083.2 1088.7 1094.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.6 1.8 1.7 1.0 1.2 Manufacturing 160.8 161.8 163.3 163.5 163.6 163.5 163.2 163.8 163.7 164.4 165.2 165.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.0-0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.2 Nonmanufacturing 862.6 871.6 882.9 890.4 895.6 902.1 914.2 917.8 915.2 918.8 923.5 928.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.2 1.9 1.0 1.2 Construction & Mining 42.4 43.6 44.6 46.0 47.0 48.4 50.1 50.9 48.4 48.6 48.8 49.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.8 11.4 10.2 11.4 10.8 11.1 12.3 10.6 3.1 0.3-2.6-3.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 138.9 139.1 140.0 140.2 140.2 140.2 141.1 141.8 139.5 139.6 139.9 140.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.1-0.5-0.5-0.9-1.2 Wholesale Trade 37.0 37.2 37.2 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.8 38.3 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.6 Retail Trade 87.5 87.5 88.1 87.9 87.7 87.4 87.7 87.9 86.4 86.4 86.6 86.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 14.5 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.8 15.9 Information 69.0 70.1 70.9 72.0 72.8 73.8 75.5 75.7 75.7 75.9 76.7 77.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 9.8 7.7 6.1 6.0 5.5 5.3 6.4 5.2 4.0 2.9 1.6 1.9 Financial Activities 34.1 34.3 34.8 35.1 35.3 35.6 35.8 35.6 35.4 35.4 35.3 35.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.3 1.6 2.9 3.3 3.7 2.9 1.4 0.3-0.6-1.2-1.1 Prof & Business Services 210.9 214.6 218.5 220.9 222.7 224.5 226.7 226.7 226.7 228.3 230.2 232.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.9 7.0 7.0 6.3 5.6 4.6 3.8 2.6 1.8 1.7 1.5 2.7 Educ & Health Services 153.6 154.9 157.5 159.0 159.9 161.4 163.1 163.5 163.5 164.4 165.1 165.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.6 4.7 4.8 4.1 4.2 3.5 2.8 2.2 1.8 1.2 1.4 Leisure & Hospitality 94.1 95.5 96.3 97.1 97.4 97.2 99.6 101.2 102.9 103.3 103.9 104.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 4.1 3.7 4.3 3.4 1.7 3.5 4.3 5.7 6.3 4.3 3.1 Other Services 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.9 27.3 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 1.2 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.5 3.3 0.6 1.9 2.0-0.3 1.9 Federal Government 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.3 2.5 2.8 1.9-0.7-3.1 State & Local Government 83.0 82.8 83.3 83.0 83.2 83.8 84.4 84.8 85.2 85.5 85.8 86.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3-1.4 0.9-0.3 0.3 1.2 1.3 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.6 1.5 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1963.4 1968.6 1972.7 1976.4 1979.0 1981.5 1985.2 1989.2 1991.8 1994.2 1997.9 2002.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Labor Force (Ths.) 1039.2 1047.0 1050.5 1055.9 1057.9 1063.9 1080.1 1086.0 1056.1 1058.1 1060.9 1063.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 2.8 2.9-0.2-0.5-1.8-2.1 Unemployment Rate (%) 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.1 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 Total Housing Starts 9671 4156 7718 4417 6064 4043 5265 7682 8044 6489 6560 6291 Single-Family 2295 1941 1738 1892 2043 2496 2605 2159 1732 1913 1965 2015 Multifamily 7376 2215 5980 2525 4021 1547 2660 5522 6313 4576 4595 4276 48 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
METRO SUMMARY - SAN JOSE Quarterly Outlook for San Jose May 2017 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 184.4 187.1 189.7 192.7 195.9 198.8 201.8 204.7 207.8 210.7 213.9 217.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 Wages and Salaries 144.6 146.8 148.9 151.1 153.5 155.8 158.3 160.6 162.9 165.1 167.7 170.1 Nonwage Income 39.8 40.3 40.9 41.6 42.4 43.0 43.6 44.1 44.9 45.6 46.2 46.9 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 92.0 93.2 94.4 95.7 97.1 98.5 99.8 101.0 102.4 103.7 105.1 106.4 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 131.2 132.7 134.2 135.7 137.4 139.1 140.8 142.4 144.2 145.8 147.7 149.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.0 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1098.6 1102.7 1106.2 1109.9 1113.4 1116.9 1120.7 1124.3 1126.7 1129.4 1131.7 1134.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 Manufacturing 166.8 167.8 168.3 168.8 169.2 169.5 169.8 170.1 170.3 170.2 170.3 170.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 Nonmanufacturing 931.8 934.9 937.9 941.1 944.3 947.4 950.9 954.1 956.5 959.1 961.4 963.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 Construction & Mining 49.4 49.5 49.9 50.2 50.5 50.6 50.9 51.3 51.3 51.3 51.7 51.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 140.0 140.0 140.3 140.5 140.6 140.5 140.7 140.9 140.8 140.5 140.6 140.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0-0.1-0.1 Wholesale Trade 37.5 37.5 37.6 37.7 37.6 37.6 37.7 37.8 37.8 37.7 37.8 37.9 Retail Trade 86.6 86.5 86.7 86.8 86.9 86.9 87.0 87.0 86.9 86.7 86.6 86.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 Information 77.5 77.7 76.8 76.6 76.4 76.8 77.4 77.8 78.2 78.4 78.8 79.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.3 0.1-0.8-1.4-1.1 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 Financial Activities 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9-0.8-0.7-0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1 0.0 Prof & Business Services 234.9 236.8 238.8 240.3 242.2 243.7 245.1 246.3 247.3 248.4 249.8 251.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 Educ & Health Services 166.4 167.1 167.9 168.5 169.0 169.5 169.9 170.5 170.9 171.0 171.4 171.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 Leisure & Hospitality 104.9 105.3 105.8 106.2 106.6 107.0 107.4 107.8 108.2 108.5 108.9 109.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 Other Services 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.2 0.1 Federal Government 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 10.8 9.9 9.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.2-4.0-3.2-2.4-2.2-1.9-1.7-1.4-1.1 13.0 4.5-1.0 State & Local Government 86.0 86.0 85.9 86.2 86.4 86.7 87.0 87.2 87.4 87.5 87.5 87.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 2004.6 2006.8 2010.5 2014.6 2017.2 2019.2 2022.9 2027.1 2029.7 2031.5 2035.3 2039.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Labor Force (Ths.) 1066.8 1070.1 1073.0 1076.5 1079.9 1083.3 1086.0 1088.7 1091.0 1093.2 1095.3 1096.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 Unemployment Rate (%) 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 Total Housing Starts 6428 6142 5881 5805 5747 5744 5864 5915 5988 6084 6191 6255 Single-Family 2086 2121 2138 2129 2121 2108 2078 2057 2068 2106 2129 2151 Multifamily 4342 4021 3743 3675 3626 3636 3785 3858 3920 3978 4062 4104 Center for Business and Policy Research 49
METRO SUMMARY - SAN JOSE Annual Outlook for San Jose May 2017 Forecast 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 109.3 103.4 111.3 122.2 136.2 137.5 149.6 161.3 168.7 177.2 188.5 200.3 212.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7-5.4 7.6 9.8 11.4 0.9 8.9 7.8 4.6 5.1 6.4 6.3 6.0 Wages and Salaries 78.1 72.9 80.5 87.9 93.0 99.4 110.0 123.6 131.6 138.7 147.8 157.0 166.5 Nonwage Income 31.2 30.5 30.8 34.3 43.2 38.1 39.7 37.7 37.0 38.5 40.6 43.3 45.9 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 60.8 56.7 60.3 65.3 71.7 71.3 76.7 81.9 85.0 88.8 93.8 99.1 104.4 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 83.8 83.4 92.3 98.4 100.2 103.0 109.4 118.5 122.5 127.3 133.5 139.9 146.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2-0.5 10.7 6.7 1.9 2.8 6.2 8.4 3.3 3.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 928.6 871.8 869.1 890.3 924.6 961.3 1001.8 1039.3 1071.0 1086.2 1104.4 1118.8 1130.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8-6.1-0.3 2.4 3.9 4.0 4.2 3.7 3.1 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.0 Manufacturing 167.1 154.2 151.8 155.7 156.4 156.3 159.5 162.4 163.5 164.8 167.9 169.7 170.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7-7.7-1.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 2.0 1.8 0.7 0.8 1.9 1.0 0.4 Nonmanufacturing 761.6 717.6 717.4 734.5 768.2 805.0 842.4 876.9 907.4 921.5 936.4 949.2 960.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8-5.8 0.0 2.4 4.6 4.8 4.6 4.1 3.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 Construction & Mining 44.8 34.9 32.6 32.0 35.0 37.8 40.0 44.1 49.1 48.7 49.8 50.8 51.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.4-22.1-6.3-1.8 9.6 7.8 5.8 10.4 11.2-0.7 2.1 2.2 1.4 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 137.8 126.6 125.8 127.9 131.9 135.1 137.9 139.6 140.8 139.7 140.2 140.7 140.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4-8.1-0.6 1.7 3.1 2.4 2.1 1.2 0.9-0.8 0.3 0.4 0.0 Wholesale Trade 39.9 35.8 35.0 34.0 35.0 36.4 37.2 37.2 37.8 37.5 37.5 37.7 37.8 Retail Trade 84.5 78.8 78.8 81.8 84.1 84.9 86.4 87.8 87.7 86.5 86.7 86.9 86.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 13.5 12.1 12.0 12.1 12.8 13.8 14.4 14.6 15.3 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.1 Information 43.6 43.8 46.4 51.3 54.2 58.7 65.7 70.5 74.5 76.4 77.1 77.1 78.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.1 0.5 5.9 10.5 5.7 8.3 11.8 7.4 5.6 2.6 1.0 0.0 2.0 Financial Activities 34.3 31.5 31.0 32.3 33.2 33.7 34.1 34.6 35.6 35.3 35.1 35.1 35.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.1-8.1-1.5 4.2 2.9 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.8-0.7-0.7 0.1-0.1 Prof & Business Services 178.3 160.6 160.9 166.7 178.2 191.2 203.0 216.2 225.2 229.5 237.7 244.3 249.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2-9.9 0.3 3.6 6.9 7.3 6.2 6.5 4.2 1.9 3.6 2.8 2.0 Educ & Health Services 121.4 124.4 127.1 129.7 136.8 143.8 150.0 156.2 162.0 164.7 167.5 169.7 171.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.9 2.5 2.1 2.1 5.5 5.1 4.3 4.2 3.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.9 Leisure & Hospitality 78.1 74.9 74.9 77.4 82.5 87.5 91.9 95.7 98.9 103.6 105.6 107.2 108.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7-4.1 0.1 3.4 6.6 6.1 5.0 4.2 3.2 4.8 1.9 1.5 1.4 Other Services 25.4 24.5 24.3 24.6 24.7 25.4 26.4 26.9 27.4 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3-3.6-0.8 1.2 0.7 2.7 3.9 2.0 1.7 1.4 0.2-0.2-0.3 Federal Government 11.0 10.8 10.7 10.1 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.0 9.7 9.5 9.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6-1.5-0.6-5.4-2.8 0.8-0.1 0.1 1.1 0.2-3.5-1.8 3.9 State & Local Government 86.9 85.6 83.7 82.5 81.6 81.8 83.5 83.0 84.0 85.6 86.0 86.8 87.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8-1.4-2.3-1.4-1.1 0.3 2.0-0.5 1.2 1.9 0.5 1.0 0.8 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1798.0 1822.4 1846.0 1872.4 1899.5 1927.0 1950.3 1970.3 1983.7 1996.5 2009.1 2021.6 2034.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Labor Force (Ths.) 941.6 948.4 954.3 968.1 988.6 1003.3 1025.1 1048.1 1072.0 1059.6 1071.6 1084.5 1094.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 0.7 0.6 1.4 2.1 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.3-1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.1 10.7 10.5 9.5 8.0 6.6 5.3 4.3 3.8 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.1 Total Housing Starts 2693 1355 2321 3158 4980 6253 7984 6491 5764 6846 6064 5817 6129 Single-Family 1103 706 886 1077 1525 1876 1961 1967 2326 1906 2119 2091 2113 Multifamily 1591 649 1435 2081 3456 4377 6023 4524 3438 4940 3945 3726 4016 50 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
Stockton MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Total annual nonfarm employment is expected to grow 1.8% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018. The expected leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are in the Construction & Mining (8.4%); Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (2.5%); and Education & Health Services (1.5%) sectors. Meanwhile, declines are expected in the Information (-4.0%) and Federal Government (-1.8%) sectors. The average annual wage is expected to be $52,379 in 2017, an increase of 1.9% from the previous year. By 2020, the average annual wage is forecasted to be $58,751. The population in the Stockton MSA is forecast to increase 1.4% in 2017 to 745,210 and will increase each year reaching 773,858 in 2020. In 2017, there was negligible growth in the labor force; however, between 0.8%-0.9% growth is expected in the next few years. The unemployment rate is forecasted to be 7.3% in 2017, down from 8% in 2016. The unemployment rate is expected to be approximately 6.8% in 2020. Housing starts are also expected to increase over the next few years, reaching 3,121 in 2020, the majority being single-family starts. 8000 Stockton Housing Starts 250 Stockton Payroll Employment (Thousands) 7000 240 6000 230 220 5000 210 4000 200 3000 2000 190 180 170 1000 160 0 150 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% Stockton Unemployment Rates (percent) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Stockton Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. 4% Center for Business and Policy Research 51
METRO SUMMARY - STOCKTON Quarterly Outlook for Stockton May 2017 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 27.4 28.0 28.4 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.4 30.7 31.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.7 8.4 7.6 7.0 5.4 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 3.9 4.0 Wages and Salaries 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.8 11.9 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.3 Nonwage Income 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 38.1 38.7 39.1 39.5 39.5 39.8 40.2 40.5 40.5 40.8 41.2 41.5 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 49.4 50.3 50.2 50.7 50.7 51.3 51.8 51.8 51.7 52.1 52.6 53.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.4 9.0 6.2 5.3 2.6 2.1 3.2 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.5 2.5 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 214.7 216.4 219.7 221.7 223.2 224.7 226.2 227.8 228.0 229.2 230.1 231.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 3.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.0 2.7 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.4 Manufacturing 18.7 18.5 18.6 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.5 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 1.0-0.9-1.0-0.6 0.7-0.6 1.7 1.9 1.5 2.3 0.3 Nonmanufacturing 196.0 197.8 201.1 203.2 204.6 206.1 207.7 208.9 209.1 210.3 211.2 212.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 3.2 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.3 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.5 Construction & Mining 9.8 10.0 10.4 10.7 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 12.4 12.0 14.7 14.8 9.5 10.1 9.2 8.9 10.7 9.6 7.5 5.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 56.0 56.9 58.6 59.6 60.3 60.7 61.1 61.9 61.6 62.3 62.8 63.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 3.1 6.4 7.6 7.6 6.6 4.2 3.9 2.3 2.6 2.9 2.2 Wholesale Trade 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.7 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 Retail Trade 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 19.0 19.7 21.0 21.7 22.4 22.7 22.8 23.2 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.7 Information 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.4-4.8-9.5-7.9 3.3 3.5 1.7-3.4-8.5-7.5-2.6 2.7 Financial Activities 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8-2.5-0.4-1.3 0.9 1.0 1.7 2.2 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.4 Prof & Business Services 19.0 19.4 19.7 19.5 19.6 19.5 19.3 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 8.3 9.3 2.1 3.6 0.8-2.4-1.2-1.0-0.2 2.0 3.2 Educ & Health Services 36.5 36.4 36.5 36.6 36.5 36.8 37.5 37.7 37.5 37.7 37.7 37.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 0.1 1.3 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.3 0.6 0.4 Leisure & Hospitality 19.4 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.5 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.7 3.9-0.2 0.1 0.0-0.2 2.9 Other Services 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 1.5 5.3 7.3 8.2 4.8 4.0 4.6 2.0 2.3 0.4-1.3 Federal Government 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.3-6.2-3.2 0.1 2.2 1.2 2.1-0.9-0.9-0.4-2.7-3.3 State & Local Government 36.1 36.4 36.6 37.1 37.3 37.8 37.9 38.4 38.4 38.4 38.3 38.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 3.3 2.5 4.0 3.2 3.8 3.6 3.4 2.8 1.6 1.0-0.1 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 720.9 723.5 725.9 728.4 731.0 733.5 735.8 738.1 741.1 743.9 746.6 749.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 Labor Force (Ths.) 314.8 316.5 317.3 319.1 317.9 319.9 321.9 320.7 319.3 319.2 320.3 321.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.4-0.2-0.5 0.1 Unemployment Rate (%) 9.2 9.0 8.7 8.6 7.9 8.1 8.2 7.8 7.6 7.3 7.2 7.0 Total Housing Starts 1584 2061 2041 1721 2068 1541 1514 1788 1668 2023 2239 2419 Single-Family 1583 2046 1963 1392 1335 1541 1514 1715 1467 1738 1913 2076 Multifamily 1 15 78 329 733 0 0 73 202 285 326 343 52 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
METRO SUMMARY - STOCKTON Quarterly Outlook for Stockton May 2017 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 31.5 31.9 32.3 32.7 33.2 33.6 34.1 34.5 35.0 35.4 35.8 36.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.0 Wages and Salaries 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.3 Nonwage Income 19.0 19.2 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.7 21.9 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 41.9 42.3 42.7 43.1 43.6 44.0 44.5 44.9 45.4 45.8 46.2 46.6 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 53.6 54.1 54.6 55.1 55.7 56.2 56.8 57.3 57.9 58.4 59.1 59.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.2 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 231.8 232.6 233.5 234.2 235.0 235.7 236.4 237.1 237.6 238.4 238.7 239.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 Manufacturing 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Nonmanufacturing 212.9 213.6 214.5 215.2 215.9 216.5 217.2 217.9 218.4 219.1 219.4 219.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.8 Construction & Mining 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.7 13.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.1 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 63.5 63.7 63.9 64.1 64.2 64.4 64.5 64.6 64.7 64.7 64.8 64.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 2.3 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 Wholesale Trade 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.7 Retail Trade 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 23.8 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.1 24.2 24.2 Information 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 4.3 2.1 1.0-0.5-0.5 0.5 1.0 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.0 Financial Activities 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.4 Prof & Business Services 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.7 20.8 20.9 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 3.9 4.0 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 Educ & Health Services 37.9 37.9 38.1 38.3 38.4 38.5 38.6 38.8 38.8 38.8 38.9 38.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 Leisure & Hospitality 20.7 20.7 20.8 20.9 20.9 21.0 21.1 21.1 21.2 21.2 21.3 21.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 Other Services 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.5-0.3-0.1 0.3 Federal Government 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.0-3.9-3.0-2.2-2.0-1.7-1.4-1.1-0.8 13.4 4.8-0.7 State & Local Government 38.4 38.5 38.5 38.6 38.7 38.9 39.1 39.2 39.3 39.4 39.4 39.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.7 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 751.8 754.2 756.6 758.9 761.2 763.4 765.8 768.1 770.4 772.7 775.0 777.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Labor Force (Ths.) 321.9 322.4 323.1 323.8 324.6 325.3 325.9 326.5 327.3 328.0 328.8 329.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 Total Housing Starts 2583 2680 2776 2851 2916 2976 3009 3040 3083 3103 3139 3159.1 Single-Family 2248 2352 2447 2508 2564 2613 2643 2674 2702 2718 2743 2757.5 Multifamily 336 328 329 343 352 363 366 367 382 384 396 401.6 Center for Business and Policy Research 53
METRO SUMMARY - STOCKTON Annual Outlook for Stockton May 2017 Forecast 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 21.8 21.8 22.2 23.0 23.8 24.7 26.1 28.2 29.4 30.6 32.1 33.8 35.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 0.1 1.8 3.6 3.5 3.7 5.7 7.9 4.4 3.9 5.0 5.5 5.2 Wages and Salaries 9.3 8.9 8.8 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.9 11.0 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.4 14.1 Nonwage Income 12.5 12.9 13.5 14.2 14.6 15.2 16.2 17.2 17.7 18.5 19.4 20.4 21.5 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 32.4 32.1 32.3 33.1 34.0 35.0 36.5 38.8 40.0 41.0 42.5 44.3 46.0 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 43.9 44.5 45.3 45.8 46.3 45.9 46.8 50.1 51.4 52.4 54.3 56.5 58.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 1.2 1.8 1.2 1.1-0.9 1.9 7.2 2.5 1.9 3.7 4.0 4.0 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 210.5 198.8 192.4 192.2 197.2 205.1 210.8 218.1 225.5 229.6 233.0 236.1 238.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.5-5.6-3.2-0.1 2.6 4.0 2.8 3.5 3.4 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.0 Manufacturing 21.2 18.9 17.6 18.0 17.8 17.9 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.9 19.0 19.2 19.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.2-11.2-6.6 2.0-0.7 0.4 3.3 0.6 0.3 1.5 0.3 1.1 0.5 Nonmanufacturing 189.3 179.9 174.8 174.2 179.3 187.2 192.3 199.5 206.8 210.7 214.0 216.9 219.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4-4.9-2.9-0.3 2.9 4.4 2.7 3.7 3.7 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.0 Construction & Mining 11.5 8.5 7.7 7.5 7.7 8.9 9.0 10.2 11.2 12.1 12.6 13.2 13.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -17.7-26.1-9.4-2.9 3.0 15.3 1.3 13.4 9.4 8.4 4.5 4.2 3.4 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 50.1 47.6 47.5 49.1 51.7 53.9 55.1 57.8 61.0 62.5 63.8 64.4 64.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.6-5.1-0.1 3.3 5.4 4.2 2.3 4.8 5.6 2.5 2.1 0.9 0.5 Wholesale Trade 10.4 10.0 10.0 10.2 10.8 11.1 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 Retail Trade 25.6 23.7 23.7 24.2 24.9 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 14.1 13.9 13.8 14.7 16.0 17.2 18.3 20.3 22.8 23.2 23.9 24.1 24.2 Information 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.3-7.3-4.1-0.3 1.2-1.2-0.9-7.1 1.3-4.0 3.1 0.1 1.5 Financial Activities 9.4 8.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.3-5.9-12.7-3.2 0.6 1.6-2.1-1.5 1.4 1.0 0.0-0.5-0.6 Prof & Business Services 17.5 15.9 15.4 15.2 16.6 17.4 18.3 19.4 19.4 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.3-9.4-3.1-1.5 9.5 4.6 5.2 6.2 0.2 1.0 3.6 2.7 2.0 Educ & Health Services 33.1 33.3 33.5 33.7 34.0 35.5 35.9 36.5 37.1 37.7 38.0 38.6 38.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 4.4 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.5 0.9 1.4 0.8 Leisure & Hospitality 17.4 16.7 16.1 16.4 17.0 18.2 19.0 19.7 20.3 20.4 20.8 21.0 21.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7-4.5-3.3 1.5 4.1 6.8 4.9 3.2 3.1 0.7 1.7 1.3 1.1 Other Services 7.4 7.0 6.5 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.1-5.3-6.1-2.9 3.2 1.1 4.4 4.0 5.4 0.9-0.1-0.3-0.2 Federal Government 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 4.6 5.7-7.1-2.5-10.8-10.1-3.9 1.2-1.8-3.3-1.6 4.2 State & Local Government 36.4 35.8 33.8 32.5 32.2 33.6 35.4 36.6 37.8 38.4 38.5 39.0 39.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1-1.7-5.6-3.8-1.0 4.2 5.6 3.2 3.5 1.3 0.4 1.2 1.1 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 672.6 679.3 688.3 695.5 700.8 705.0 714.5 724.7 734.6 745.2 755.4 764.6 773.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 Labor Force (Ths.) 304.8 310.1 311.4 311.3 312.1 313.5 313.9 316.9 320.1 320.0 322.8 325.6 328.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 Unemployment Rate (%) 10.5 14.9 16.5 16.2 14.4 12.3 10.5 8.9 8.0 7.3 6.8 6.7 6.8 Total Housing Starts 1021 826 853 957 1058 1220 1268 1852 1728 2087 2722 2985 3121 Single-Family 898 826 846 826 1044 1097 1255 1746 1526 1798 2389 2623 2730 Multifamily 123 0 7 131 14 123 13 106 202 289 334 362 391 54 California & Metro Forecast May 2017
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND POLICY RESEARCH University of the Pacific A national doctoral university, University of the Pacific is recognized for an education combining exceptional professional preparation in a student-centered tradition of close interactions between students and professors. With a core liberal arts college and eight professional schools, more than any university enrolling fewer than 10,000 students, Pacific offers professional opportunities associated with far larger institutions in the environment of a small learning community. Pacific is California s first chartered institution of higher learning, having received its articles of incorporation from the California Supreme Court on July 10, 1851. The University enrolls more than 5,600 students on three campuses situated in the Northern California cities of San Francisco, Stockton and Sacramento. President Pamela A. Eibeck www.pacific.edu Eberhardt School of Business The Eberhardt School of Business offers a Masters in Business Administration (MBA), Master of Accounting (MAcc), Bachelor of Science in Business Administration, Bachelor of Science in Accounting, and Minors in Management, Business Administration, and Information Systems to nearly 700 students. With an emphasis on interactive classes and studentfaculty engagement, the program is committed to developing successful future business leaders through a learning process that is personal, relevant, and professional. In addition to developing well-rounded and highly skilled graduates, the Eberhardt School of Business has demonstrated its commitment to community service and regional economic development through a variety of outreach programs and activities including the Center for Business and Policy Research, Career Management Center, Center for Entrepreneurship, Institute for Family Business, and Westgate Center for Management Development. Dean David Dauwalder www.pacific.edu/business Center for Business and Policy Research The Center for Business and Policy Research, founded in 2004 and housed in the Eberhardt School of Business, produces quarterly economic forecasts of California and 8 metropolitan areas from Sacramento to Fresno to the San Francisco Bay Area. In addition to its forecasting program, the Center conducts policy and planning studies on topics such as water, transportation, housing, and economic development for public and private clients throughout Northern California. Jeffrey A. Michael, Ph.D. Director, Center for Business and Policy Research Ph.D., North Carolina State University; M.S., University of Maine; B.A., Hamilton College (NY) Dr. Jeffrey Michael is Director of the Center for Business and Policy Research and Associate Professor in the Eberhardt School of Business at the University of the Pacific. Jeff s areas of expertise include regional economic forecasting and environmental economics including work on the economic impacts of the Endangered Species Act, climate change, and regulation on land use, property values and employment growth. His research has received numerous grants, been published in scholarly journals and received local and national press coverage including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times Magazine, San Francisco Chronicle, Washington Post, NPR, and PBS. Prior to joining Pacific in 2008, Jeff was faculty at Towson University in Maryland where he served as Director of the Center for Applied Business and Economic Research, Associate Dean, and faculty. Jeff received his Ph.D. from North Carolina State University, M.S. from the University of Maine, and B.A. from Hamilton College (NY). UNIVERSITY OF THE PACIFIC EBERHARDT SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
University of the Pacific Eberhardt School of Business Sacramento Office: 3200 5th Avenue Sacramento, CA 95817 Stockton Office: 3601 Pacific Avenue Stockton, CA 95211 Pacific.edu/CBPR