AUSTRALIAN INFRASTRUCTURE METRIC September Quarter 217 The IPA/BIS Oxford Economics Australian Infrastructure Metric (the Metric) is the leading indicator of real investment in Australia s civil infrastructure. The September quarter of the Australian Infrastructure Metric produced by Infrastructure Partnerships Australia and BIS Oxford Economics - shows that civil construction work won fell compared to the previous quarter, with decreases in civil construction activity in both mining and non-mining sectors. The transport sector, which remains the key driver of total civil work won, saw a significant fall following the spike in railway investment in the June quarter. The September 217 quarter saw the total civil work won index fall, as a result of the decrease in non-mining work won. Within the non-mining sector, there were falls in both the transport and utilities sectors this quarter, which has contributed to the continued quarter to quarter volatility in non-mining work won. The mining sector has largely stabilised, with positive, albeit very low levels of work won since mid-216. Figure 1 September Quarter Work Won Trends June 217 Quarter Index Value September 217 Quarter Index Value Per cent change (four quarter rolling average) September quarter vs long-run average September quarter highlights: Non-mining infrastructure investment fell significantly from an index reading of 112.7 to 49, following the spike in railway infrastructure work won last quarter The total construction work won index has fallen to 35.5, 58.9 per cent below the long-run average a significant decrease on the relatively high result of 8.7 in the June 217 quarter TOTAL CIVIL 8.7 35.5 3.1% 58.9% Non-Mining 112.7 49. 4.6% 46.3% Transport 163. 64.1 3.3% 38.1% Utilities 33.1 1.3.9% 83.2% Mining 6.2 4. 29.3% 94.7% Transport work won fell this quarter with the Sydney Metro project s Sydenham Station and Junction works package won this quarter dwarfed by the project s Tunnel and Station Excavation package signed last quarter Non-mining work done is forecast to rise by $4.4 billion over FY217/18, and by $1.2 billion over FY218/19. 1 Australian Infrastructure Metric September Quarter 217
AGGREGATE TRENDS Figure 2 Total Civil Work Won Index June 217 Quarter Index Value September 217 Quarter Index Value Per cent change (quarter on quarter) Per cent change (four quarter rolling average) September quarter vs long-run average TOTAL CIVIL 8.7 35.5 56.% 3.1% 58.9% The total civil work won index fell this quarter to 35.5 compared to 8.7 in the June quarter; Work won in the quarter was 58.9 per cent below the long-run trend (see Figure 2); Work done is projected to decrease by $5.9 billion over FY217/18 and fall by $2.4 billion over FY218/19; and Transport infrastructure investment continues to make up the bulk of civil construction work won at 77 per cent, while the mining sector has the lowest share at three per cent. The September quarter shows a fall in civil work won with a headline index reading of 35.5 (March 21 = 1) which is 58.9 per cent below the long-run trend (see Figure 2). This is largely a result of the fall in railway infrastructure investment which saw a significant spike in the June quarter. This sizeable decrease in railway investment has outweighed the growth in road infrastructure investment. The mining sector continues to record positive levels of investment, but now only has a small impact on total civil construction following the end of the mining boom. Figure 4 shows the broad patterns in work won across financial years and indicates the fall in total civil work won in FY216/17 compared to FY215/16. This largely results from the major work won in roads over FY215/16 which contributed to the four quarter average non-mining index of 73.9. Major work won during FY216/17 included contracts associated with the Sydney Metro project, telecommunications infrastructure and level crossing removal works. Mining sector work won improved in FY216/17 compared to FY215/16 with contracts related to liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects signed during the year. Major projects won during the September quarter included works for the Sydenham Junction Works package and upgrades to the Pacific Highway. The transport sector accounted for 77 per cent of the work won this quarter, with the utilities sector making up eight per cent. The mining sector had three per cent of the total work won during the quarter while, the Other category of civil construction made up 12 per cent. The total work won reading indicates that the September 217 quarter civil commencements will be between $13.1 billion and $17.7 billion (see Figure 3). As shown in Figure 3, total civil work done saw a significant uptick in the June quarter. This resulted from the arrival of a multi-billion dollar LNG module in WA in the June quarter, which lifted mining work done figures for FY216/17. Civil work done in FY217/18 will fall from this high with the Metric projecting decreases of $5.9 billion over the FY217/18 and $2.4 billion in FY218/19. 2 Australian Infrastructure Metric September Quarter 217
Figure 3 All Civil Work Won, Commencements and Work Done $ BILLION 65 INDEX 3 55 25 45 2 35 15 25 1 15 5 5 Jun 4 Dec 4 Jun 5 Dec 5 Jun 6 Dec 6 Jun 7 Dec 7 Jun 8 Dec 8 Jun 9 Dec 9 Jun 1 Dec 1 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17 Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18 Jun 19 Dec 19 Jun 2 IPA/BIS Oxford Economics Work Won Metric All Civil (RHS) Total Work Done by Quarter (ABS Data) (LHS) IPA/BIS Oxford Economics Work Done Forecast All Civil (LHS) Total Commencements by Quarter (ABS Data) (LHS) Figure 4 Four Quarter Average Work Won Index, FY21/11 to FY217/18 YTD INDEX 18 16 Total Civil Mining Non-Mining 14 12 1 8 Total Civil Average (63.1) Mining Average (61.5) Non-Mining Average (63.6) 6 4 2 94.7 121.8 85.4 1.9 162.7 79.9 55.3 61.7 53.1 73.2 125.4 55.5 FY21/11 FY211/12 FY212/13 FY213/14 FY214/15 FY215/16 FY 216/17 FY 217/18 YTD 52.4 4.5 68.8 56.4 4.8 73.9 43.4 7.3 55.7 28.1 3.7 36.4 3 Australian Infrastructure Metric September Quarter 217
NON-MINING 1 Figure 5 Non-Mining Work Won Index June 217 Quarter Index Value September 217 Quarter Index Value Per cent change (quarter on quarter) Per cent change in four quarter rolling average September quarter vs long-run average Non-Mining 112.7 49. 56.5% 4.6% 46.3% Transport 163. 64.1 6.7% 3.3% 38.1% Utilities 33.1 1.3 68.9%.9% 83.2% The September 217 quarter saw the non-mining work won index fall to 49, following the high of 112.7 in the June quarter (Figure 5); Non-mining work won in the September quarter is 46.3 per cent below the long-run trend; and Non-mining work done is forecast to increase by $4.4 billion in FY217/18 and $1.2 billion in FY218/19. The non-mining work won index (March 21 = 1) fell to 49 for the September quarter, down from 112.7 in the previous quarter (see Figure 5). This is 46.3 per cent below the long-run average and reflects a fall in investment in the transport and utilities sectors after very large contracts were signed for railway projects last quarter. Figure 4 shows that total civil work won has been falling since FY213/14, with the collapse in mining infrastructure investment in FY214/15 a key factor. The moderate growth in non-mining infrastructure over much of this period has not fully offset the downturn in mining investment leading to lower levels of overall construction activity. This has also led to the non-mining sector becoming the main source of civil construction work won. Total non-mining work won indicates that commencements are expected to reach between $1.5 billion and $14.2 billion for September 217 (see Figure 6). Figure 6 shows that non-mining work done is forecast to increase in the near term, growing by $4.4 billion in FY217/18 and $1.2 billion in FY218/19. 1. Non-mining and heavy industry construction includes the development of transport (roads, bridges, railways and ports), utilities (electricity, water and sewerage, gas and telecommunications) and other work (including recreation and site clearing). While not including the direct construction of mines and heavy industry facilities, this category of work still includes the development of mining-related infrastructure, such as railways, ports and gas pipelines. 4 Australian Infrastructure Metric September Quarter 217
Figure 6 Non-Mining Work Won, Commencements and Work Done $ BILLION 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 INDEX 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Jun 4 Dec 4 Jun 5 Dec 5 Jun 6 Dec 6 Jun 7 Dec 7 Jun 8 Dec 8 Jun 9 Dec 9 Jun 1 Dec 1 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17 Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18 Jun 19 Dec 19 Jun 2 IPA/BIS Oxford Economics Work Won Metric Non-Mining (RHS) Non-Mining Work Done by Quarter (ABS Data) (LHS) IPA/BIS Oxford Economics Work Done Forecast (quarterly average) Non-Mining (LHS) Non-Mining Commencements by Quarter (ABS Data) (LHS) 5 Australian Infrastructure Metric September Quarter 217
TRANSPORT The September quarter saw the transport work won index fall to 64.1, down from 163 in the previous quarter; Transport work won is 38.1 per cent below the long-run average; Work won in roads & bridges and harbours increased compared to the previous quarter, while railway investment fell significantly; and Transport work done is projected to increase by $3.3 billion in FY217/18 and $1.3 billion in FY218/19. The transport work won index (March 21 = 1) fell to 64.1 for the September quarter, following the spike in railway infrastructure investment in the previous quarter (see Figure 7). The fall in railway investment this quarter has more than offset growth in roads & bridges and harbours work won, bringing down the overall transport work won index. This also continues the fluctuating trend in transport work won since December 215 which is driving similar patterns in the total civil work won index (see Figure 3). As shown in Figure 8, investment in harbours has generally declined since FY21/11 from a four quarter index (21 = 1) of 132.2 to 2.4 in FY216/17. This subcategory generally makes up an insignificant share of total work won, but recorded a one-year high index reading of 18 this quarter and accounts for five per cent of total work won. The roads & bridges and railway subcategories continue to make up the bulk of total work won, but their shares can vary quarter to quarter. Last quarter, the roads & bridges and railways subgroups made up 11 and 74 per cent of total work won respectively. This quarter sees their relative importance reverse, with roads & bridges accounting for 58 per cent of total work won, while railways has a 14 per cent share. The previous quarter saw the highest level of railway infrastructure work won, with contracts signed for major works associated with Sydney Metro and level crossing removal projects. Major projects with contracts signed in the September quarter included works for upgrades on the Pacific Highway to provide a four lane divided road and track, signalling and overhead wiring works at Sydenham Station as part of the Sydney Metro project. Commencements will be in the $4.8 billion to $6.5 billion range for the September 217 quarter (see Figure 7). Figure 7 also shows that transport work done is projected to increase in the near term, growing by $3.3 billion over FY217/18 and $1.3 billion over FY218/19. 6 Australian Infrastructure Metric September Quarter 217
Figure 7 Transport Work Won, Commencements and Work Done $ BILLION 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 INDEX 25 2 15 1 5 3 2 Jun 4 Dec 4 Jun 5 Dec 5 Jun 6 Dec 6 Jun 7 Dec 7 Jun 8 Dec 8 Jun 9 Dec 9 Jun 1 Dec 1 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17 Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18 Jun 19 Dec 19 Jun 2 IPA/BIS Oxford Economics Work Won Metric Transport (RHS) Transport Work Done by Quarter (ABS Data) (LHS) IPA/BIS Oxford Economics Work Done Forecast Transport (LHS) Transport Commencements by Quarter (ABS Data) (LHS) Figure 8 Transport Sub-Groups, FY21/11 to FY217/18 YTD (Four Quarter Average Index) 2 18 Roads Rail Harbours 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 79.6 11.7 132.2 39.7 93.1 163.2 25.9 95.3 55.2 48.6 65.8 78.4 67.2 129.2 19.3 79.4 7.3 28.9 29.8 179.8 2.4 41.5 36.9 35.2 FY21/11 FY211/12 FY212/13 FY213/14 FY214/15 FY215/16 FY216/17 FY217/18 YTD 7 Australian Infrastructure Metric September Quarter 217
UTILITIES 2 The utilities work won index fell in the September quarter to a reading of just 1.3 down from 33.1 in the previous quarter; This is significantly below the long-run average of 61.25 and the fourth lowest reading for utilities since the Metric began; Sewerage was the only subcategory to increase this quarter, with all other subcategories seeing declines in investment; and Work done is forecast to increase by $1.83 billion in FY217/18. The September quarter continues the declining trend in utilities, with this quarter representing the third consecutive drop in the work won index (see Figure 9). Work won in the September quarter lifted the four quarter rolling average by.9 per cent, but is 83.2 per cent below the long-run average of 61.25. The poor performance of the index continues to reflect the telecommunications subcategory which saw no investment for the third quarter in a row. Figure 1 also shows that the Australian Infrastructure Metric recorded no investment in gas pipelines this quarter, with sewerage infrastructure the only subcategory seeing solid levels of investment. The level of utilities work won indicates that commencements for this sector for the September 217 quarter will be between $5.4 billion and $7.4 billion. Work done in utilities infrastructure is expected to increase by $1.8 billion over FY217/18, before falling slightly over FY218/19 by $78.6 million. 2. Utilities includes electricity, water, sewerage, telecommunications and gas pipelines, servicing both the mining and non-mining sectors of the economy. 8 Australian Infrastructure Metric September Quarter 217
Figure 9 Utilities Work Won, Commencements and Work Done $ BILLION 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 INDEX 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Jun 4 Dec 4 Jun 5 Dec 5 Jun 6 Dec 6 Jun 7 Dec 7 Jun 8 Dec 8 Jun 9 Dec 9 Jun 1 Dec 1 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17 Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18 Jun 19 Dec 19 Jun 2 IPA/BIS Oxford Economics Work Won Metric Utilities (RHS) Utilities Work Done by Quarter (ABS Data) (LHS) BIS Oxford Economics Work Done Forecast (quarterly average) Utilities (LHS) Utilities Commencements by Quarter (ABS Data) (LHS) Figure 1 Utilities Sub-Groups Work Won, FY21/11 to FY217/18 YTD (Four Quarter Average Index) INDEX 6 Electricity Water Sewerage Telecomms Gas Pipelines 5 4 3 2 1 76.3 41.8 14.5 176.2 1.4 28.6 13.1 11.5 356.3 18.5 53.7 3.7 343.9 552.8 7.5 53. 15.4 229.4 25.5 25.2 13.3 32.7 34.3 46.2 31.7 162.2 382.8 73.4 39.1 73.2 44.1 131.2 13.4 FY21/11 FY211/12 FY212/13 FY213/14 FY214/15 FY215/16 FY216/17 FY217/18 YTD 9.9 9. 18.1 3.5 126.8.. 9 Australian Infrastructure Metric September Quarter 217
MINING 3 Figure 11 Mining Work Won Index June 217 Quarter Index Value September 217 Quarter Index Value Per cent change (quarter on quarter) Per cent change (four quarter rolling average) September quarter vs long-run average Mining 6.2 4. 35.6% 29.3% 94.7% The mining work won index reading of 4. means that the mining sector continues to see modest levels of investment following its collapse in FY213/14; Work won in the quarter is 94.7 per cent below the long-run average; and Work done is projected to fall $1.3 billion over FY217/18 and $3.6 billion in FY218/19. The mining work won index (March 21 = 1) recorded a reading of 4. for the September quarter, down slightly from 6.2 in the previous quarter. This is 94.7 per cent below the longrun average reading which reflects the strong investment that occurred during the mining boom. However, it is the seventh consecutive quarter in which mining has reported a positive work won index, following the near zero level of investment in 215. The four quarter rolling average declined 29.3 per cent to just 5.5. Overall, the sector continues to be subdued as a result of the collapse of the mining boom, with this quarter s positive reading stemming from small investments in LNG projects. Barring a small uptick last quarter, it is expected that work done will continue to decline as a result of the low level of commencements in the sector (see Figure 12). The work won reading for mining indicates commencements will be in the $2.6 billion to $3.6 billion range for the September 217 quarter (see Figure 12). Figure 11 also indicates that mining work done is expected to continue declining, with a fall of $1.3 billion over FY217/18 and $3.6 billion over FY218/19. 3. This includes the construction of mines, refineries, smelters, chemical processing plants, materials handling and storage facilities, oil refineries and platforms, blast furnaces, steel mills and other heavy industrial facilities. 1 Australian Infrastructure Metric September Quarter 217
Figure 12 Mining Work Won, Commencements and Work Done $ BILLION 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 INDEX 3 25 2 15 1 5 Jun 4 Dec 4 Jun 5 Dec 5 Jun 6 Dec 6 Jun 7 Dec 7 Jun 8 Dec 8 Jun 9 Dec 9 Jun 1 Dec 1 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17 Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18 Jun 19 Dec 19 Jun 2 IPA/BIS Oxford Economics Work Won Metric Mining (RHS) Mining & Heavy Industry Work Done by Quarter (ABS Data) (LHS) IPA/BIS Oxford Economics Work Done Forecast (quarterly average) Mining & Heavy Industry (LHS) Mining & Heavy Industry Commencements by Quarter (ABS Data) (LHS) 11 Australian Infrastructure Metric September Quarter 217
WORK DONE FORECASTS Measuring the work won by civil contractors provides an important indicator of future trends in civil work done (activity) as measured by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). 4 BIS Oxford Economics forecasts: Total civil work done is expected to decrease by $5.9 billion over FY217/18 and $2.4 billion in FY218/19 The large decrease in FY217/18 is due to a forecast drop in mining work done of $1.3 billion The headline forecast for FY217/18 predicts a decrease in construction activity by $5.9 billion compared to FY216/17 (see Figure 13). This is due to the arrival of a multi-billion dollar LNG module in Western Australia in the June quarter, which lifted mining work done figures for FY216/17. The drop in activity continues the steep decline that occurred in FY216/17 compared to FY215/16, which saw a decrease of $9.8 billion. Minimal mining activity continues to have a significant impact on the overall activity, even though non-mining sectors, particularly transport, have seen a large increase in contracts awarded over the last few years. The impact of the decline in mining activity is expected to dissipate over the coming years, with mining work done forecast to drop by $1.3 billion this financial year, and then by a further $3.6 billion in FY218/19. This is a significant improvement on the $12.2 billion decrease that occurred in FY216/17. In FY219/2, mining activity is only forecast to decrease by $385.8 million, signalling the economy s move away from the mining industry. Similarly, Figure 14 shows that mining infrastructure s share of total civil work done is expected to decline from about 5 per cent during FY213/14 to 25 per cent in FY219/2. In contrast, the share of utilities and transport work done is expected to continue growing to a combined 7 per cent by FY219/2. Non-mining work done is expected to increase by $4.4 billion over this financial year, an improvement on the $2.4 billion increase of FY216/17. The majority of this increase stems from strong performance in the transport sector (see Figure 13). Transport is expected to expand by $3.3 billion in FY217/18 and by $1.3 billion in FY218/19 before declining by $599.8 million in FY219/2. Utilities work done will see an increase of $1.8 billion in FY217/18 before a small decrease of $78.6 million in FY218/19. Utilities work done is forecast to decrease in FY219/2 by $2.9 billion. Non-mining work done is expected to increase by $4.4 billion over FY217/18 and by $1.2 billion in FY218/19 4. Note Due to a range of factors, such as the time between a contract being signed and work commencing, direct comparisons of work won, as measured by the Metric, and work done, as measured by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), should be avoided. Rather, trends in work won, as well as trends in work commenced (as measured by the ABS) provide a guide as to future work done levels. 12 Australian Infrastructure Metric September Quarter 217
Figure 13 Forecast ABS Work Done, Change from FY216/17 to FY219/2 ($ Million) 216/17 to 217/18 217/18 to 218/19 218/19 to 219/2 (Source: BIS Oxford Economics/ABS data) Total Civil Mining Non-Mining Utilities Transport -12, -1, -8, -6, -4, -2, 2, 4, 6, Figure 14 ABS Work Done by Sector ($ Million) 4, 35, 3, Transport Utilities Other Mining and Heavy industry 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Jun 4 Dec 4 Jun 5 Dec 5 Jun 6 Dec 6 Jun 7 Dec 7 Jun 8 Dec 8 Jun 9 Dec 9 Jun 1 Dec 1 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17 Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18 Jun 19 Dec 19 Jun 2 13 Australian Infrastructure Metric September Quarter 217
PROCUREMENT TRENDS 93.8 per cent of all contracts won over the last four quarters were either design and construct or construct only (see Figure 15); Similarly, design and construct contracts continue to make up the bulk of the total value of contracts at 63.7 per cent; Work won in the utilities sector is more diverse in contract types. In terms of number of contracts signed, Other and Alliance contracts together made up 12.7 per cent of contracts in the utilities sector. By value of contracts signed, Other and Alliance contracts made up a 28.5 per cent share. Figure 15 Procurement Type: Four Quarter by Volume 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% Design and Construct (D&C) Construct only (lump sum/fixed price) Alliance PPP Other Sector wide Transport Utilities Figure 16 Procurement Type: Four Quarter by Value 1% 8% 6% 3.5% 2.7% 55.2% 38.6% 12.3% 3.7% 2.4% 2.% 2.7% 59.7% 35.6% 1.2% 3.% 17.2% 7.9% 4.8% 38.1% 49.2% 21.8% 6.8% 14.1% 4% 63.7% 69.6% 57.3% 2% Sector wide Transport Utilities Design and Construct (D&C) Construct only (lump sum/fixed price) Alliance PPP Other 14 Australian Infrastructure Metric September Quarter 217
15 Australian Infrastructure Metric September Quarter 217
Work Won Survey (METRIC) - Quarter Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Roads and Bridges 139.6 191.7 311. 6.6 27.6 43.7 12.4 54.1 94.3 46.2 47.7 31.2 67.2 136.2 33.2 Railways 196.5 23. 349.2 23.1 288. 1.4 48.7 12.5 23.7 133.8 158.6 168.9 372.9 375.3 175.8 Harbours 2.4 8.2 75.5 11.2 174.9 32.2 159.1 96.3 45.2 4. 5.8 17.4 4.6. 15.6 Total Transport 12.7 155.4 262.8 43.8 99.5 49.4 16.3 7.9 99.2 57.7 64.7 48.2 97.8 14.2 5.1 Electricity 23.8 72.9 78.9 13.7 44.7 6.9 8.9 5. 12.8 33.3 27.4 1.6 76.8 6.1 21.5 Water 14.4 37. 26.6 24.2 24.2 91.3 53.9 58.9 72.2 25.3 24.8 17.5 14.7 2.4 4.4 Sewerage 567.2. 59.4. 719.7.. 432.4 761.6 2.9 2,353.4 1,37.6 634.1 1,92.1 55.9 Telecommunications.. 235.9 9. 347. 161.9 52.3 419.7 113.1 189.8 75.7 519.2 1,72.3 69.2. Gas Pipelines 11.3 6,746.9 721.4 77.4 64.9 5,154.9. 211.4 2,855.8.. 566.. 181.1 595.8 Total Utilities 6.9 138.8 79.5 18.5 62.7 12. 61.2 84.3 88.2 4. 49.3 64.1 121.8 96.1 2.6 Electricity and Gas Pipelines 23.5 246.2 95.6 15.3 45.3 14.6 8.7 54.2 86.7 32.5 26.6 25. 74.8 63.2 36.4 Total Mining 56.4 127.7 142.8 224.7 24.9 16.3 15.6 222.3 161.3 59.7 145. 41.9 16.9 198.1 196.5 Total Civil Construction 85.1 142.5 176.8 91.2 67. 121.2 144.2 122.3 121.1 54.1 85.3 58.1 81.5 148.1 88.7 Total Non-Mining 97.4 148.9 191.3 34. 85.1 14.5 141.5 79.5 13.9 51.7 59.7 65.1 19.2 126.6 42.5 Work Won Survey (METRIC) - 4 Quarter Average - 21=1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Roads and Bridges n/a n/a 1. 94.7 79.6 59.7 31.6 3.7 39.7 4. 32.6 29.6 25.9 38. 36.1 Railways n/a n/a 1. 91.2 11.7 86.9 93.7 12.7 93.1 96.9 68.4 75.9 95.3 122.8 124.8 Harbours n/a n/a 1. 56.5 132.2 144. 185. 226.7 163.2 167. 113.9 75.2 55.2 35.6 18.4 Total Transport n/a n/a 1. 91.2 87.9 71.3 55.2 59.5 59.4 6.7 45.8 42.2 42. 54.9 52.6 Electricity n/a n/a 1. 68.7 76.3 52.3 26.9 4.1 28.6 38.1 44.8 3.5 53.7 63.4 61.3 Water n/a n/a 1. 71.7 41.8 62.1 72.3 85.2 13.1 78.5 67.6 52.2 3.7 22.2 14.6 Sewerage n/a n/a 1. 91.5 14.5 14.5 61.2 97.9 11.5 13.2 33.3 354.7 343.9 55.3 31. Telecommunications n/a n/a 1. 72.9 176.2 224.4 33.7 426. 356.3 364.6 237.6 267.3 552.8 71.8 679.3 Gas Pipelines n/a n/a 1. 99.7 1.4 79.4 69.9 71.7 18.5 4.5 4.5 45.1 7.5 9.9 17.7 Total Utilities n/a n/a 1. 78.5 79. 74. 69.2 86.5 93.3 72.2 69. 63.7 72.6 87.4 79.8 Electricity and Gas Pipelines n/a n/a 1. 81.8 86.5 63.8 45.1 53.5 62.4 39.1 43. 36.7 34.2 4.8 42.9 Total Mining n/a n/a 1. 129.2 121.8 129.5 131.3 13.8 162.7 139.2 137.9 95.6 61.7 94.2 16.2 Total Civil Construction n/a n/a 1. 98.3 94.7 9.5 84. 9.2 1.9 87.6 75.9 63.2 55.3 74. 74.6 Total Non-Mining n/a n/a 1. 87.7 85.4 77.2 67.9 76.4 79.9 7. 54.8 52.1 53.1 67.1 63.9 16 Australian Infrastructure Metric September Quarter 217
Work Won Survey (METRIC) - Quarter Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Roads and Bridges 141.1 49.9 67. 23.7 115.2 293.2 181.7 224.6 51.6 131.6 47.8 123.2 16. 34.5 77.1 Railways 18.6 6.3 693.1 343.8 36.9 57.5 26.3 12.2 37.3 539.5 15.7 416.2 51.8 955.9 8.7 Harbours 15.1 39.3 14.8. 2.9 21.5 1.8 3.1 1.7 34.4... 4.9 18. Total Transport 114.9 41.1 147. 65.3 78.1 196.5 119.9 142.9 4.2 169.2 52. 138.1 17.6 163. 64.1 Electricity 12.4 51.9 9.2.. 27.5. 11.7 13.9 1.6. 45.1 28.5 34.2 12.5 Water 17.9 16.5 22.8 5.5 3.4 55.9 2.3 7. 3.1 11.6 8.1 1.2 79.3 8.7 2.3 Sewerage 74.5 649.1 139.2 27.8 11. 126.4 657.5 362.2 71.7 186.5 51.4 249.3 89.2 128.7 372.9 Telecommunications.. 22.5 13. 13.1 1,315.8 1,251... 35. 7.3 37.5... Gas Pipelines 775.8 358.6 222.8 1,669.1 229.9 28.1 1,64.5 3,592. 366.9.. 115.4. 899.4.6 Total Utilities 24.3 42.6 19.8 25.1 6.3 131. 112.3 58.5 18.9 9.7 8.6 93.1 48.3 33.1 1.3 Electricity and Gas Pipelines 32.2 59.9 14.8 43.3 6. 34. 41.7 14.7 23. 1.6. 46.9 27.8 56.6 12.2 Total Mining 18.9 31.8 19.....3. 19.9.4 13.1 5. 6.9 6.2 4. Total Civil Construction 88.4 44.2 74.2 34.9 35.1 12.3 86.1 82.7 28.5 87. 28.7 86.7 23. 8.7 35.5 Total Non-Mining 79.6 49.5 97.9 49.9 5.1 171.8 122.9 118.2 32.2 124. 35.3 121.7 29.9 112.7 49. Work Won Survey (METRIC) - 4 Quarter Average - 21=1 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Roads and Bridges 5.9 48.6 39.2 38. 34.5 67.2 82.7 19.8 11.2 79.4 61.4 47.7 42.9 29.8 33.8 Railways 17.6 65.8 12.1 121.2 123.3 129.2 53. 15.2 15.2 7.3 84.5 13.6 132.3 179.8 171.8 Harbours 61.3 78.4 85.7 78. 28. 19.3 17.3 18.8 22.6 28.9 23.6 22.1 16.9 2.4 11.2 Total Transport 63.1 54.2 55.3 57.6 51.9 76.2 72. 84.1 78.2 73.9 63.3 62.5 59. 58. 59.9 Electricity 62. 53. 34.5 26.7 22.2 13.3 1. 14.2 19.2 9.9 9.9 22. 27.3 39.1 43.6 Water 14.7 15.4 23. 23.4 18. 32.7 25. 25.6 25.5 9. 11.1 45.9 74.3 73.2 71.1 Sewerage 228.2 229.4 78.1 75.7 78.7 34.3 78.3 16.8 157.1 162.2 11.6 11. 49. 44.1 71.4 Telecommunications 524.7 25.5 6.7 1.6 14.5 46.2 771.9 768. 764.1 382.8 31.3 141.6 141.6 131.2 11.3 Gas Pipelines 2.5 25.2 25.8 39.9 32.7 31.7 49.9 75.3 77.1 73.4 52.2 6.4 1.5 13.4 13.4 Total Utilities 69.3 48.4 28.3 29.5 24.7 48. 72.5 81.2 84.6 52.6 25.2 34.4 42.1 48.3 48.7 Electricity and Gas Pipelines 44.4 41.2 3.8 32.3 26.6 21.1 26.9 4.1 43.7 36.7 27.8 15.4 16.4 28.2 3.8 Total Mining 121.9 125.4 83.5 37.4 11.9 4.5.1.1 4.7 4.8 7.8 9. 6. 7.3 5.2 Total Civil Construction 8.6 73.2 58.6 47.9 37.4 52.4 54.8 64.3 63. 56.4 45. 45.8 44.7 43.4 44.8 Total Non-Mining 66.6 55.5 5.1 51.5 46. 68.8 73.4 86.1 82.8 73.9 57.6 58.3 57.8 55.7 58.3 17 Australian Infrastructure Metric September Quarter 217
ABOUT The IPA/BIS Oxford Economics Australian Infrastructure Metric (the Metric) is a major research initiative produced by Infrastructure Partnerships Australia (IPA), in collaboration with business research and forecasting firm, BIS Oxford Economics and Australia s major civil contractors. The Metric captures circa 3 per cent of private construction activity each quarter, using this data to model the work won (contracts signed) each quarter and forecasting construction activity levels across the coming years. The Metric provides a robust leading indicator of the strength and direction of the civil construction sector in Australia, increasing community, investor and sponsor certainty about the progress in addressing Australia s infrastructure deficit. Close to twenty of Australia s largest civil construction companies participate in this quarterly study. By capturing a substantial sample of the work won by these companies each quarter, the Metric provides a timely indicator of civil construction activity across: Total civil infrastructure investment; Civil infrastructure excluding direct mining and heavy industry construction; Transport infrastructure; and Utilities infrastructure. The Metric also captures the contracting arrangements that are being employed to deliver Australia s infrastructure, allowing for an objective measurement of procurement trends over time. This Metric edition covers the September 217 quarter; with the December 217 quarter due to be published in February 218. MARKET SHARE The Metric is presently capturing around 25 per cent of total civil engineering construction work commenced each quarter, and an average of 3 per cent of total private contract engineering construction (see Figure 17). The sample size varies considerably between sectors and sub-sectors, with the sample size for the transport and mining sectors far outweighing the utilities sector. Figure 17 Data Set Market Share Sector Total Civil Commencements Total Private Contract Civil Commencements Transport 31 43 Utilities 17 26 Mining 3 27 All sectors 25 29 CONTACTS Media: For all media enquiries please contact Sarah Dagg from Infrastructure Partnerships Australia on (2) 9152 616 or sarah.dagg@infrastructure.org.au Research: For further information on the research methodology please contact Gavin Chan from Infrastructure Partnerships Australia on gavin.chan@infrastructure.org.au Other: BIS Oxford Economics forecasts for civil construction work done appearing in this report are sourced from: Engineering Construction in Australia 216-23; Mining and Heavy Industry Construction in Australia 214 to 228 Road Construction in Australia 213 to 228 For more information on BIS Oxford Economics civil construction forecasts please contact Adrian Hart on (2) 8458 42 or ahart@bis.com.au