Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Review The 2015
TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Executive Summary 1 Population 9 Labour Market 15 Social Indicators 31 The Manitoba Economy 45 Manitoba 2016 Economic Indicators 67 Special Articles The Civil Service in Manitoba 69 Prevalence of Disability in Manitoba s Aboriginal Population 75 Measurement of Low Income in Manitoba 83 Manitobans Views on Fair Trade Products 95 The Manitoba Policy Impact Simulation Model 103 Managing Economic Multiplier Misconceptions 109 Appendices A-1: Demographic Statistics A-2: Labour Force Statistics A-3: Economic Statistics A-4: Sectoral Statistics B-1 to B-6: Historical Economic Data
Highlights from the Executive Summary Demographics Population: o Statistics Canada estimates Manitoba's population at 1,303,900 residents for 1 January 2016. Migration: o Statistics Canada estimates total net migration at 10,400 persons for 2015. Demographics: o The median age of Manitobans for 1 July 2015 is 37.7 years, no change from the year prior. Nationally, the median age is 40.5 years, a 0.1 year increase. Labour Market Labour Force: o From 2014 to 2015, the Manitoba annual average labour force grew by 12,000, or 1.8%. This was the second best growth rate among provinces, above Canada s growth of 0.8% and the largest annual growth for Manitoba since 2002. Employment: o The average employment level rose by 9,700 in 2015. This 1.5% increase was the best in the country and well above Canada s increase of 0.8%. Unemployment: o Manitoba s average unemployment rate of 5.6% was second lowest among the provinces and below Canada s rate of 6.9% for 2015. Education: o Manitoba s labour force is increasingly educated: 55.7% of the labour force held a post-secondary certificate, diploma, or university degree in 2015, up from 53.1% in 2014. The proportion with less than a high school diploma has dropped from 13.3% to 11.9% over the same time frame. Sub-Populations: o The Manitoba First Nation s participation rate was 52.7%, 1.4 percentage points lower than 2014. Their unemployment rate of 15.4% was 0.4 points lower than 2014. Youth unemployment was 22.6% in 2015, up from 21.0%. Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 1
Social Indicators Charitable Donations: o In 2014, Manitoba had the highest percent of tax filers claiming donations at 24.8%, while Canada s donor rate was 21.4%. Health and Social Inclusion: o In 2014, 61.0% of Manitobans aged 12 and older indicated that their perceived overall health was very good or excellent, just below Canada s rate of 60.9%. Crime: o In 2014, Manitoba s crime severity index was 95.89 compared to Canada s 66.66. Manitoba s index has decreased at a faster rate than Canada s over the last ten years. LOWBI: o Manitoba s Lack of Well-Being Index is estimated at 10.7 for 2015, 0.3 points lower than 2014 and the second best in Canada. Households and the Environment: o Manitoba reported the third highest average energy consumption in Canada. Arts and Culture: o In 2014, Manitoba has the highest performing arts attendance average in the country, 566 attendees per performance. Electoral Participation: o The proportions of electoral participants aged 25 years and older in 2014, voted in last federal and provincial in Manitoba were 72.6% and 72.0%, respectively, below the national proportions. Household Expenditure: o In 2014, the average total expenditure per household in Manitoba was 76,434 dollars, 4,294 dollars less than the national average. Economic Performance Macroeconomic Indicators: o In terms of real GDP, the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS) estimates that the Manitoba economy grew 1.6% in 2015. This is a small decrease in economic growth compared with the 2.2% real growth over the previous year. Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 2
Housing: o Winnipeg housing prices increased in 2015, with 12,882 units sold at an average selling price of $271,500. This was an increase of 1.7% from the $267,000 recorded in 2014. Retail: o In 2015, Manitoba retail sales were valued at $18,297.3 million and finished the year 1.5% stronger than 2014. 2016 Economic Indicators: o For 15 of the 23 economic indicators, Manitoba s performance is superior to Canada s as of June 16, 2016. Manitoba Provincial Civil Service There tends to be confusion and misrepresentation of the number of persons who are employed in the Manitoba Civil Service. Prevalence of Disability in Manitoba s Aboriginal Population In 2012, 16.0% of the Manitoba Aboriginal population aged 15 years and older reported living with a disability. This rate was 14.7% for the CMA of Winnipeg. Low Income Measures There is no official definition of Poverty in Canada. Manitobans Views on Fair Trade Products For the March 2016 Probe Research province-wide Omnibus survey, a supplementary section on perceptions of fair-trade products was included. Manitoba Policy Impact Simulation Model Manitoba s real GDP is projected to grow by 1.9 percent in 2016 and 2.2 percent in 2017. Managing Economic Multiplier Misconceptions Through a very simplified model of the Manitoba economy (containing only 8 types of commodities), the article examines factors which limit or enhance the size of Manitoba economic multipliers; the chief factor being leakage of expenditures to other jurisdictions. Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 3