Employment Support in the UK: Key statistics briefing

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Transcription:

Employment Support in the UK: Key statistics briefing This paper aims to give a brief overview of the UK employment picture in figures. For more information on any of the statistics below, contact ERSA s research team at research@ersa.org.uk. Last updated 6 March 2017. The Employment Landscape Employment Currently the UK labour market is doing well. The working-age employment rate has risen to a high of 74.6% (31.76 million) in Oct-Dec 2016, following steady recovery since the low of 70.2% in early 2010. 1 This is the highest employment rate since 1971. The unemployment rate is currently at 4.8% (1.62 million), down from 5.1% last year, however OBR forecasts estimate that this will rise to 5.2% by 2019 as growth in the economy slows. The inactivity rate (those who are not actively seeking employment and are not working) was 21.6% (8.9 million), having fallen by 0.1% over the last quarter. 2 Long-term unemployment Although there has been a fall in the proportion of unemployed people who are long-term unemployed (between 6 and 12 or more than 12 months without employment) over the last five years, this is still an area of concern. Recent figures have weakened in the last quarter, however; in Oct-Dec 2016, there was an increase to 15.5% (246,000) in the number of unemployed people aged 16-64 had been unemployed for over 6 and up to 12 months (up by 9,000 on Sept-Nov 2016), and 25.3% (399,000) had been unemployed for over 12 months (stable since September-November 2016), halting a continual decline by 62,000 since January-March of 2016. Since June 2011 (at a time of economic downturn and the year the Work Programme commenced), there has been a decline of 689,000 people in long-term unemployment. 3 Youth employment Although youth unemployment is at its lowest since 2005, there is still a youth employment gap. The employment rate for 16-24 year olds currently stands at 55.8%, 18.8% lower than the overall employment rate, though this have closed by almost 1% over the last 6 months. Latest figures estimate that there are just over 7.1 million people aged 16-24 in the UK labour market. 4 The unemployment rate for 16-24 year olds is 7.7%% (555,000), down from 9.2% a year ago. 5 NEET rates for 16-24 year olds were 11.3% (671,000) in Oct-Dec 2016, compared to 11.6% a year ago. 6 Amongst young people (18-24 year olds), 17.7% (79,000) who had been unemployed for over 6 and up to 12 months, and 18.1% (81,000) for over 12 months. 7 Health and disability There are around 7.2 million people with disabilities in the UK. The employment gap stands at 32.2% as 1

of Q4 2016, having seen very little movement in the last three years. 48.3% (approx. 3.5 million) of disabled people are in employment, compared with 80.5% of the non-disabled population. 8 Of ESA claimants, DWP figures from 2014/15 found that 43% had a mental health issue, 13% had musculoskeletal system and connective tissue conditions and 7% had fallen victim to external consequences such as injury. Of those with a mental health condition, 8 in 10 reported having anxiety or conditions such as depression. 9 Currently one in six people have experienced a common mental health issue in the last week, varying regionally from 21% prevalence in the South West to 14% in the South East. In 2015/16 2.4 million people were referred to talking therapies via IAPT services. Mental Health spending from CCGs is expected to reach 9.49b in 2016/17, up from 9.15b in 2015/16. 10 Currently 75% of mental health conditions go untreated. 70 million work days are lost annually to mental health issues, and mental health issues cost the economy of 70-100b annually. 11 Those who are unemployed for more than 12 weeks are 4-10 times more likely to develop depression or anxiety. 12 Benefit claims Benefit claims have fallen in the last year, with the exception of claims for Carer s Allowance and Personal Independence Payments. JSA claims have continued to decline sharply since a high of around 1.5 million in 2011 just 497,250 currently claim JSA, a drop of more than 100,000 since February 2016. 2.39m currently claim ESA, continuing a gradual decline over the last 18 months. 13 650,000 claim income support, 800,000 claim Carer s Allowance and 980,000 claim Personal Independence Payments. 14 Universal Credit The Universal Credit rollout has so far expanded to cover 446,838 individuals. Of these, 273,536 (61%) are unemployed, and 173,304 (39%) are in employment. Of those in employment, 35,000 (20%) have requirements on them as part of their UC claim. Employment Support Work Programme Monthly intake on the Work Programme has dropped from a high of 100,000 in 2011 to just 10,000 latterly. As of September 2016, ESA claimants now make up just under a third of the Work Programme s intake, compared to 5% in 2011. 15 The Work Programme has had over 1.8 million attachments, which have resulted in 550,500 sustained job outcomes. 16 Over 900,000 people started a job on the programme including 55,000 ESA customers and over 200,000 young people. 17 29.9% of referrals to the Work Programme who could obtain job outcomes did so. Regional distribution shows London and the Northwest accounting for the most people having been on the programme, at 273,000 and 252,000 respectively. Wales and the Southwest have seen the lowest numbers at 103,000 each. 18 Specialist support 134,260 people have started on the specialist disability service Work Choice since it began of these, 2

36,900 have achieved sustained job outcomes. 19 53% of Work Choice referrals claim JSA, 10% claim UC, and over 20% claimed IB/SDA/ESA. 20 Specialist Employability Services began in September 2015 and aim to support a further 1,700 people with disabilities a year it is currently too early for data on job outcomes. Access to Work, the government s separate in-work support programme, has helped 136,190 disabled people with workplace adjustments since April 2007. 21 Self-employment There are just under 4.5 million self-employed people in the UK, accounting for 15% of the workforce overall. 22 ERSA estimates that 10-15% of Work Programme job outcomes are into self-employment. 184,890 people have started the New Enterprise Allowance mentoring programme since April 2011. Of these, 96,370 have resulted in business starts. 23 From October 2015 September 2016, attachments to the NEA fell by 17%, and new business starts fell by 45% when compared to figures from the previous year. 24 Skills and Training Education 13% of young people entering the job market hold less than a Level 2 qualification, while 19% hold a Level 2 as their highest qualification. 25 Young people are 5 times less likely to become NEET if they have taken part in 4 or more work experience activities 26 Young people who a qualified below Level 2 are twice as likely to become NEET. 27 Traineeships Traineeships, for young people aged between 16 and 24, have seen continued growth over the past year. There were just under 24,100 starts in 2015/16, an increase of 24% on 2014/15. 28 In 2015/16 there were 17,400 completions (a 72.2% completion rate) and 10,500 progressions (43.6%). 29 Apprenticeships There were 509,400 apprenticeship starts and 271,700 achievements in 2015/16. This continued the upward trend from 2014/15. 30 Almost all apprenticeship starts were at the Intermediate (57.2%) or Advanced (37.5%) levels only 5.3% were at the Higher level, though this represents a 2.3% increase on the last year. 31 44% of apprenticeship starters were over 24 years old. 32 The achievement rate of apprenticeship starts in 2013/14 stood at 53.3%. 33 BAME representation in apprenticeships is low, at just 10.6% versus 20.2% in FE students government has committed itself to increasing BAME representation in Apprenticeships to 20% by 2020. 34 Individual cohorts Troubled Families By July 2015, a total of 101,000 people had been identified as the target audience for the Troubled Families programme since its start in April 2012. Of those, 27,000 (27%) found employment, and 17,000 (17%) had sustained job outcomes of at least 13 weeks in work. The troubled families programme is mainly used to support women, who make up 68% of clients. 35 Offenders and ex-offenders 3

As of December 2016, the prison population stood at 84,307. Prison leavers are a substantial cohort in need of specialist support; in Q4 2016 (July-September) alone, 18,714 people were released from prison. 36 47% of prisoners reported having no qualifications at all, compared to 15% of the general population. 37 In 2011/12 only 27% of offenders entered employment on release from prison. 38 The reoffending rate of prison leavers with custodial convictions of less than a year was 9.4% lower if they found P45 employment on release. For those with sentences of over one year, it was 5.6% lower. 39 The Work Programme has had 55,139 prison leavers referred onto it, of which there were 50,051 attachments. Only 11.8% of prison leavers on the Work Programme achieve a job outcome within 1 year of referral, but after two years, 24.5% of prison leavers achieve job outcomes 40 This reflects the additional time and support needed by prison leavers to overcome barriers to employment. BAME employment In Q4 2016 the employment rate gap for ethnic minorities aged 16-64 was 11.6% (64.8% against an employment rate of 76.4% for the non-bame cohort). 41 Employment rates were significantly lower for the Pakistani and Bangladeshi cohorts in particular, with only 56.4% and 50.4% respectively. 42 In total, ethnic minorities have accounted for 17.6% of Work Programme referrals and 18.6% of job outcomes for the Work Programme. 43 Carers 1 in 10 working-age adults are informal carers informal carers had an employment rate of 63% versus 74% for non-carers in 2012-14, an employment gap of 11%. The poverty rate amongst informal carers is 22%, but this increases markedly as the time spent performing care per week increases. 28% of workingage adults caring for 20+ hours per week are in full-time employment, and 16% are in part-time employment. 44 Lone Parents There are approximately 1.8 million lone parents in the UK. 45 42% of lone parents were out of work specifically due to childcare reasons in 2012. 46 67.9% of lone parents with dependent children were in employment in Q4 2016, compared to 64.4% in the previous year and just 43.8% in 1996. 47 Housing & Homelessness There are no statistics for exact numbers of people who are homeless in the UK, however there are indications that homelessness, and particularly rough sleeping, is a growing problem 4,134 people were estimated to sleep rough in England every night in Autumn 2016, a 16% rise on 2015. 48 In 2015 a total of 275,000 people approached their local authorities for some form of homelessness support. 49 Crisis research from 2006 found that homeless people are approximately 5 times more likely to be unemployed. Just 2% had full-time employment. 50 21% of homeless people questioned by Crisis in 2015 were homeless as a result of benefit sanctions. 51 70% of housing associations currently provide or are planning to start providing employment support services and skills training. 52 4

Projected Economic Impact of Brexit Prior to the EU referendum, the treasury released a series of predictions of the impact of a vote to leave on the UK, outlining negative impacts on employment and the economy. Since the referendum, independent measures have found that the economy has not suffered as expected. In the Spring Budget, the OBR predicted GDP growth of 2.0% in 2017, slowing to 1.6% and 1.7% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Employment is also expected to continue to rise to 32.5 million, however the unemployment rate is predicted to increase simultaneously, to 5.2% by 2019/20. In terms of European funding that could be lost if European funding is not replaced post-brexit, the treasury estimated that the EU invests 616m per year for education, skills and employment. This translates to 11.85m per week. 53 1 ONS, Labour Market Statistics, Feb 2017 2 ONS, Labour Market Statistics, Feb 2017 3 ONS, UNEM01 SA: Unemployment by age and duration (seasonally adjusted), Feb 2017 4 ONS, Labour Market Statistics, Feb 2017 5 ONS, Labour Market Statistics, Feb 2017 6 DfE, NEET statistics quarterly brief: September to October 2016, Feb 2017 7 ONS, UNEM01 SA: Unemployment by age and duration (seasonally adjusted), Feb 2017 8 House of Commons Library, Briefing Paper: Key statistics on people with disabilities in employment, Dec 2016 9 DWP JSAPS ADS figures, Jan 2016 10 Carl Baker, Briefing Paper: Mental health problems: statistics on prevalence and services, Jan 2017 11 Department of Health, Annual Report of the Chief Medical Officer 2013, Sept 2014 12 Royal College of Psychiatrists, Mental Health and Work, Sept 2013 13 DWP Quarterly Benefits Summary to August 2016, Feb 2017 14 DWP Quarterly Benefits Summary to August 2016, Feb 2017 15 DWP, Work Programme Statistics, Jan 2017 16 DWP, Work Programme Statistics, Jan 2017 17 ERSA, Work Programme Performance Report, March 2017 18 DWP, Work Programme Statistics, Jan 2017 19 DWP, Work Choice: referrals, starts and job outcomes to December 2016, Feb 2017 20 DWP, Work Choice: referrals, starts and job outcomes to December 2016, Feb 2017 21 DWP, Access to Work: individuals helped to end of March 2016, July 2016 22 ONS, UK Self-employment jobs SA, Jan 2017 23 DWP, Great Britain New Enterprise Allowance Quarterly Official Statistics: April 2011 to June 2016, Dec 2016 24 DWP, Great Britain New Enterprise Allowance Quarterly Official Statistics: April 2011 to June 2016, Dec 2016 25 BIS, Young People and Skills statistics 26 Education and Employers Trust, Work Experience: Impact and delivery insights from the evidence, April 2012 http://www.educationandemployers.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/work_experience_report april_2012_.pdf 27 Impetus PEF Youth Jobs Index, 2016 28 Skills Funding Agency and BIS, Further education and skills: January 2017, Feb 2017 29 Skills Funding Agency and BIS, Further education and skills: January 2017, Feb 2017 30 Skills Funding Agency and BIS, Further education and skills: January 2017, Feb 2017 31 Skills Funding Agency and BIS, Further education and skills: January 2017, Feb 2017 32 Skills Funding Agency and BIS, Further education and skills: January 2017, Feb 2017 33 Skills Funding Agency and BIS, Further, SFA: national success rates tables 2014 to 2015, May 2016 34 Commons Library, Debate Pack: Financial support for apprentices, March 2017 35 DWP, Troubled Families Experimental Official Statistics - July 2015, September 2015, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/troubledfamilies-benefits-and-employment-apr-2012-to-jul-2015-experimental 36 MoJ, Offender management statistics quarterly: July to September 2016, Jan 2017 37 Ministry of Justice, The pre-custody employment, training and education status of newly sentenced prisoners, 2012 38 Ministry of Justice, National Offender Management Service Annual Report 2011-12: Management Information Addendum, 2012 39 Ministry of Justice Analysis of the impact of employment on re-offending following release from custody, using Propensity Score Matching, 2013 40 DWP, Work Programme Statistics, Jan 2017 41 ONS Labour market figures, A09 Labour market status by ethnicity (not seasonally adjusted), Feb 2017 42 ONS Labour market figures, A09 Labour market status by ethnicity (not seasonally adjusted), Feb 2017 43 DWP Stat X-plore, Work Programme statistics, Mar 2016 44 New Policy Institute, Informal care and poverty in the UK, May 2016 45 ONS, Working and Workless Households October-December 2016, Mar 2017 46 ONS, Families in the labour market, Sept 2016 47 ONS, Working and Workless Households October-December 2016, Mar 2017 5

48 DCLG, Rough sleeping statistics England Autumn 2016, February 2017 49 Crisis, JRF, Heriot Watt University and the University of York, The Homelessness Monitor, January 2016 50 Crisis, Homeless people and learning & skills participation, barriers and progression, July 2006 51 Crisis, Homeless people s experiences of welfare conditionality and benefit sanctions, December 2015 52 National Housing Federation, Worklessness, welfare and social housing, July 2015 53 HM Treasury, HM Treasury analysis: the immediate economic impact of leaving the EU, May 2016 6

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