Technical & Derivatives Report Sensex (33033) / Nifty (10154) Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart After previous day s massive sell off, our markets were expected to open significantly lower. But, this wasn t the case, the index started with a mildly negative bias after SGX Nifty recovering smartly from early morning lows. However, during the entire day, index remained under pressure and had a gradual recovery to conclude around the 10150 mark. Yesterday s move was not so surprising for the traders fraternity; however, the kind of magnitude we saw on Tuesday was clearly missing. Practically such sluggish movement was obvious; because after Tuesday s breakdown, the trade on the short side became quite evident and generally, market does not obey obvious moves. However, we fell because of the major breakdown that we saw below the 10300 mark. Now, index has precisely tested the 200-day SMA placed around 10140 and we ve been repeatedly mentioning about this possibility since last 3 4 weeks. Considering the broader picture, we will not be surprised to see sub-10000 levels soon but how it pans out need to be observed closely. For the coming day, 10100 10033 would be seen as immediate support zone. On the higher side, 10208 followed by 10280 remains to be strong hurdles. Markets have now reached the crucial support zone and hence, for intraday traders, it would not be wise to create aggressive shorts if index trades around the mentioned support zone during the first half. Nifty Bank Outlook - (24134) Going ahead, index is likely to trade sluggish and the real action would be seen in individual stocks. Thus, one needs to focus on such moves rather than scratching heads in the index. Key Levels Support 1 10100 Resistance 1 10208 Support 2 10033 Resistance 2 10280 Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart The Nifty Bank index continued its corrective move in yesterday's session and ended the session with a cut of another 1.29 percent. The daily and the weekly chart continue to depict negative momentum and thus there is a higher probability of the continuation of this corrective trend. Although, post last six trading sessions of sell-off, the momentum readings on the lower time frame chart are in the oversold zone which could lead to some pullback move or consolidation. However, that would not change the trend and hence, traders should avoid any bottom fishing. The near-term support is placed around 23820, which is 38.2% retracement level of the up move from 17607 to 27662. On the flipside, the near term resistance is seen in the range of 2470024800. Key Levels Support 1 24000 Resistance 1 24540 Support 2 23820 Resistance 2 24700
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 0.83 % BankNifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.64% as market closed at 10154.20 levels. The Nifty February future closed with a premium of 17.35 points against a discount of 0.70 points in last trading session. The March series closed at a premium of 52.15 points. The INDIA VIX has decreased from 16.24to 15.70. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty has decreased from 1.14 to 1.09 level. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are ORIENTBANK, IDBI, GRANULES, JPASSOCIAT and ADANIENT. Nifty Vs Views FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs. 720 crores. While, they bought in index futures of Rs. 377 crores with huge amount of rise in open interest, indicating formation of both long and short positions in previous trading session. In index options front, they sold of Rs. 940 crores with rise in open interest. In call option, we saw good amount of open interest addition in 10100-10600 strikes. On the flip side, 10000-10200 put options added fresh positions along with decent unwinding in 10400 and 10500 strikes. Maximum concentration of open interest is now visible in 10600 call and 10000 put options. In last few sessions, we saw index correcting along with decent amount of short formation. Stronger hands rolled over majority of their index futures shorts to March series and they have been consistently fresh positions; wherein, majority are on short side. Now, their index futures Long Short ratio is at 47%, which certainly does not bode well for the Bulls. Considering the above data points, we expect market to remain under pressure going ahead. Gainers ADANIENT 20264000 19.17 172.20-7.25 TORNTPHARM 379500 15.53 1329.40-1.56 VOLTAS 3335000 12.86 626.60 0.56 ICICIBANK 88783750 9.12 286.70-2.67 CANBK 15432000 8.73 249.45-6.75 GODREJCP 2341600 7.10 1090.70 0.83 SRF 514500 6.19 1805.60-2.99 CANFINHOME 5300000 6.11 499.65-6.56 Losers FORTIS 34128500-15.39 147.55-8.49 MRPL 5445000-10.37 116.40 0.56 OFSS 123900-6.88 3829.60 1.58 INFRATEL 9015100-5.32 329.45-0.47 PVR 705200-5.32 1288.05 0.20 DHFL 28492500-5.14 497.75-1.73 PCJEWELLER 7408500-5.11 327.10-3.95 MUTHOOTFIN 2205000-5.10 377.75-0.97 Historical Volatility HV ADANIPORTS 43.38 KTKBANK 54.75 ANDHRABANK 56.09 LICHSGFIN 32.49 SUZLON 50.48 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 1.09 0.71 BANKNIFTY 0.60 0.69 PNB 0.87 0.44 SUNPHARMA 0.42 0.55 FORTIS 0.82 0.53
FII Statistics for March 07, 2018 Turnover on March 07, 2018 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 4046.35 3669.13 377.22 209389 16487.26 13.15 94514.38 95454.10 (939.72) 816173 64360.28 1.70 10094.91 9741.28 353.64 1088174 74459.78 0.89 7038.76 7110.36 (71.60) 80231 5503.55 12.41 Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 351319 29529.35 6.43 8199770 749034.65 25.06 799952 54273.00 3.00 527525 37814.46 5.79 Total 115694.39 115974.86 (280.47) 2193967 160810.87 2.64 TOTAL 9878566 870651.46 21.75 Nifty Spot = 10154.20 Lot Size = 75 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 10200 122.30 Sell 10300 79.45 42.85 57.15 10242.85 Buy 10100 111.25 Sell 10000 80.40 30.85 69.15 10069.15 Buy 10200 122.30 Sell 10400 48.05 74.25 125.75 10274.25 Buy 10100 111.25 Sell 9900 57.50 53.75 146.25 10046.25 Buy 10300 79.45 Sell 10400 48.05 31.40 68.60 10331.40 Buy 10000 80.40 Sell 9900 57.50 22.90 77.10 9977.10 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 356 366 383 393 409 AMBUJACEM 231 233 237 239 242 ASIANPAINT 1,089 1,098 1,104 1,113 1,119 AUROPHARMA 576 585 597 606 619 AXISBANK 502 508 513 518 523 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,841 2,873 2,906 2,938 2,971 BAJFINANCE 1,582 1,600 1,624 1,643 1,667 BPCL 434 439 444 448 454 BHARTIARTL 379 391 404 416 429 INFRATEL 322 326 331 335 340 BOSCHLTD 17,575 17,712 17,945 18,082 18,315 CIPLA 572 576 583 587 593 COALINDIA 300 304 306 310 312 DRREDDY 2,104 2,127 2,166 2,188 2,227 EICHERMOT 27,147 27,338 27,496 27,687 27,846 GAIL 429 435 439 445 448 HCLTECH 926 938 945 957 964 HDFCBANK 1,813 1,823 1,838 1,848 1,863 HDFC 1,741 1,751 1,767 1,777 1,793 HEROMOTOCO 3,498 3,526 3,543 3,571 3,588 HINDALCO 217 221 223 227 229 HINDPETRO 348 353 360 365 371 HINDUNILVR 1,281 1,287 1,298 1,304 1,314 IBULHSGFIN 1,172 1,184 1,205 1,218 1,239 ICICIBANK 280 283 289 292 297 IOC 375 377 381 383 387 INDUSINDBK 1,674 1,689 1,701 1,717 1,729 INFY 1,125 1,135 1,147 1,157 1,169 ITC 251 255 258 262 265 KOTAKBANK 1,061 1,073 1,085 1,097 1,110 LT 1,239 1,251 1,272 1,285 1,306 LUPIN 746 754 764 771 781 M&M 689 698 712 722 735 MARUTI 8,486 8,583 8,648 8,745 8,810 NTPC 161 162 163 165 166 ONGC 175 178 182 185 188 POWERGRID 190 192 193 194 196 RELIANCE 874 882 896 903 917 SBIN 240 243 249 253 259 SUNPHARMA 512 519 526 533 540 TCS 2,974 3,001 3,045 3,071 3,115 TATAMOTORS 337 342 349 354 361 TATASTEEL 635 641 651 658 668 TECHM 594 602 614 621 634 ULTRACEMCO 4,048 4,081 4,126 4,158 4,203 UPL 684 693 702 711 720 VEDANTA 298 304 309 314 319 WIPRO 280 283 287 289 293 YESBANK 305 308 312 315 319 ZEEL 551 558 563 571 576
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