Sensex (33747) / Nifty (10359) Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart Yesterday s gap down opening along with the immediate correction was clearly a catch up move as our markets remained shut on Friday due to the Holi festival. We had to somehow make that adjustment to be in-line with the global peers. Barring some recovery in the antepenultimate hour, the index traded with negative bias to eventually close tad above the 10350 mark. At the end of Yesterday s session, we are in complete dilemma now as we can see entirely contrasting close from two key indices, the Nifty and the Bank Nifty. We were closely keeping a track of 10400 for Nifty, which has been violated now; but at the same time, the banking index has managed to defend its make or break level of 24780 on a closing basis. In fact, all major components of Bank Nifty are indicating some relief move from their current support zones. So, we are in two minds whether to go with the benchmark index or the major contributor Bank Nifty. Hence, it would be a prudent ploy to revise the support level a bit for Nifty in order to trigger some momentum in the immediate future. Now, 10300 would be seen as crucial support and breach below this important junction would extend this corrective move towards the 200-day SMA placed around 10140. Having said that if we have to pre-empt any direction, we would give more weight age to the way Bank Nifty is shaped up. We will not be surprised to see some bounce back in the market; courtesy to the heavyweight banking basket. We reiterate that within this consolidation, one should ideally remain light on index and focus more on individual stocks. Key Levels Support 1 10300 Resistance 1 10400 Support 2 10265 Resistance 2 10430 Nifty Bank Outlook - (24819) Post a long weekend, the Nifty Bank index started the week with a gap down opening on the back of negative global cues. However, the index consolidated in a range for the entire session around its '200 DMA' support and showed relative outperformance to the Nifty. On the daily chart, the index has ended with a 'Doji' candlestick pattern which is a sign of indecisiveness amongst the market participants. Some of the private sector heavyweights too are trading near their crucial supports along with the index. Hence, it could be interpreted that the Nifty Bank index is trading at a make or break level as the breach of the support will result into a continuation of the corrective move whereas any pullback move hereon would make this support stronger. Today's session could be crucial to determine the short-term trend and hence, traders are advised to be vigilant on the index momentum. The support of the index is placed in the range of 24750-24800 whereas resistances are seen around 25002 and 25225. Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart Key Levels Support 1 24800 Resistance 1 25002 Support 2 24750 Resistance 2 25225
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 2.83 % BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 0.31% as market closed at 10358.85 levels. The Nifty February future closed with a premium of 6.75 points against a discount of 1.80 points in last trading session. The March series closed at a premium of 40.05 points. The INDIA VIX has increased from 14.07 to 15.40. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty has decreased from 1.29 to 1.22 level. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are JPASSOCIAT, HDIL, RNAVAL, JUSTDIAL and MGL. Nifty Vs Views FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs. 367 crores. While, they were net sellers in index futures of Rs. 1488 crores with rise in open interest, indicating formation of short positions in previous trading session. In index options front, they bought of Rs. 1374 crores with rise in open interest. In call options, 10300-10700 strikes added good amount of fresh positions; followed by decent unwinding in 10800 call option. On the flip side, some build-up was seen in 10100-10200 put options. While, some unwinding was seen in 10300 and 10500 put options. Now, maximum open interest concentration for March series is placed at 10700 call and 10400 put options. Although market corrected below 10400 mark, we hardly saw any major unwinding in 10400 put options. In fact, yesterday we saw good amount of long formation in 10400 call option. However, stronger hands were sellers in both cash market segment and index futures. At present, market is trading near its crucial support zone; thus, would suggest traders keeping a close watch on index and preferring stock specific approach unless we see relevant build-up in either direction for the index. Gainers MINDTREE 2188800 12.87 859.55 4.65 INDIANB 4740000 11.95 305.75-3.35 IOC 17688000 10.52 379.25-0.27 BEML 2198100 9.24 1360.30 9.65 PEL 1967228 8.15 2440.90-4.36 NMDC 38052000 7.00 122.90-5.83 RAMCOCEM 937600 6.74 734.75-1.19 ICICIBANK 78050500 5.68 303.35-0.26 Losers FORTIS 43984500-14.61 163.30 1.12 IDBI 59520000-13.63 84.65 5.02 NIITTECH 1384500-9.60 879.95 0.95 VOLTAS 2918000-7.19 624.70 1.03 GLENMARK 6277500-6.54 551.40 1.60 HDIL 38250000-5.47 46.70-2.28 GODREJIND 2191500-5.38 544.40-0.47 MRPL 6718500-5.15 113.70-3.93 Historical Volatility HV BALRAMCHIN 60.34 BEML 68.99 TATAMOTORS 38.50 NMDC 49.51 PEL 37.22 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 1.22 0.80 BANKNIFTY 0.86 0.72 PNB 0.90 0.42 SUNPHARMA 0.51 0.41 FORTIS 0.85 0.36
FII Statistics for March 05, 2018 Turnover on March 05, 2018 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 2364.17 3852.02 (1487.86) 175163 14182.26 4.59 59540.12 58166.36 1373.76 763242 61281.93 4.72 7937.25 8409.97 (472.72) 1063681 74476.52 1.51 5632.50 5559.62 72.89 65734 4559.58 5.49 Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 264310 22513.92 6.68 4230416 378663.90-69.07 658021 46018.17-0.31 416144 30407.57 12.91 Total 75474.05 75987.98 (513.93) 2067820 154500.30 3.06 TOTAL 5568891 477603.56-63.78 Nifty Spot = 10358.85 Lot Size = 75 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 10400 123.95 Sell 10500 79.95 44.00 56.00 10444.00 Buy 10400 160.10 Sell 10300 118.90 41.20 58.80 10358.80 Buy 10400 123.95 Sell 10600 47.40 76.55 123.45 10476.55 Buy 10400 160.10 Sell 10200 86.85 73.25 126.75 10326.75 Buy 10500 79.95 Sell 10600 47.40 32.55 67.45 10532.55 Buy 10300 118.90 Sell 10200 86.85 32.05 67.95 10267.95 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 394 399 405 410 417 AMBUJACEM 239 243 248 251 256 ASIANPAINT 1,092 1,099 1,107 1,114 1,122 AUROPHARMA 578 589 601 612 624 AXISBANK 517 521 525 529 533 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,876 2,910 2,965 2,999 3,055 BAJFINANCE 1,600 1,619 1,639 1,658 1,678 BPCL 428 431 436 440 445 BHARTIARTL 413 417 422 427 432 INFRATEL 331 335 339 343 346 BOSCHLTD 18,044 18,196 18,452 18,604 18,859 CIPLA 574 577 581 583 588 COALINDIA 300 303 307 310 315 DRREDDY 2,135 2,158 2,199 2,222 2,263 EICHERMOT 27,236 27,392 27,596 27,752 27,956 GAIL 434 439 446 451 458 HCLTECH 905 918 932 945 958 HDFCBANK 1,848 1,857 1,867 1,877 1,887 HDFC 1,761 1,775 1,795 1,809 1,828 HEROMOTOCO 3,511 3,534 3,558 3,581 3,605 HINDALCO 223 226 231 234 239 HINDPETRO 358 363 370 375 383 HINDUNILVR 1,278 1,289 1,305 1,317 1,332 IBULHSGFIN 1,211 1,225 1,240 1,254 1,269 ICICIBANK 296 300 303 307 310 IOC 373 376 380 384 388 INDUSINDBK 1,667 1,678 1,688 1,699 1,709 INFY 1,129 1,143 1,157 1,170 1,184 ITC 258 259 261 262 264 KOTAKBANK 1,072 1,086 1,095 1,109 1,118 LT 1,289 1,295 1,304 1,310 1,319 LUPIN 778 784 795 801 812 M&M 714 727 735 748 756 MARUTI 8,720 8,758 8,812 8,850 8,904 NTPC 158 161 163 166 168 ONGC 181 183 186 189 192 POWERGRID 193 195 196 198 199 RELIANCE 903 912 931 941 960 SBIN 256 260 262 266 269 SUNPHARMA 517 532 542 558 568 TCS 3,003 3,053 3,083 3,133 3,164 TATAMOTORS 338 345 357 364 376 TATASTEEL 641 649 659 666 676 TECHM 597 615 625 644 653 ULTRACEMCO 4,043 4,069 4,102 4,128 4,161 UPL 693 707 715 729 737 VEDANTA 305 310 316 321 326 WIPRO 288 289 292 293 295 YESBANK 307 310 315 318 322 ZEEL 541 546 552 557 562
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