National Urban Policy: Cities as Engine of Growth Minister of National Development Planning/ Head of National Development Planning Agency The 4th Planocosmo International Conference Bandung, 4 April 2018
2 Sustainable Urbanization
3 Indonesia s Population Projection 2015-2045 2015 2045* 255.1 million Total Population 321 million 2.28 Total Fertility Rate 2.1 70.8 years 72.8 years Life Expectancy 65.76% 80% Labor Participation 80-84 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 2045 0-4 Thousand people 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 5.000 10.000 15.000 Laki-laki Male Perempuan Female Bekerja Working Sedang Schooling Sekolah Lainnya Other Projection 2030 2045 Working Age Population (15-64 years) Labor Force Participation Rate Employment 201.8 million 212.3 million 77% 80% 155.4 million 165.2 million 49.2% Dependency Ratio 52.3% 53,1% Urban Population 67,1% Source: *Indonesia Population Projection Revision 2015-2085 (current estimation) In 2045, Indonesia will experience a substantial population growth- an increase of 63.9 million or 25.05 percent. About 67.1 percent of population will live in urban areas. Numbers of working age population will continue to increase, but the share of younger groups (aged 15-29) will decline. It is likely as the result of the extension of average years of schooling. The labor force is projected to grow over the next 30 years at an annual rate of 0.7 percent. By 2045, the labor force is projected to reach 172.1 million.
Advanced Urbanization in Java 1 SUMATERA 51,697,225 PEOPLE 39.1% URBAN / 60.9%RURAL 2 KALIMANTAN 14,105,730 PEOPLE 42.2% URBAN / 57.8% RURAL 1 2 4 3 4 JAVA 138,311,286 PEOPLE 58.6% URBAN / 41.1%RURAL SULAWESI 17,663,879 PEOPLE 33.6% URBAN / 66.4%RURAL JAKARTA 3 SURABAYA 6 5 6 BALI AND NUSATENGGARA 13,327,280 PEOPLE 39.2% URBAN / 60.8%RURAL MALUKU AND PAPUA 11,972,106 PEOPLE 29.4% URBAN / 70.6% RURAL Island Source: World Bank, 2015 5 Population (000) Proportion to national (%) Population density (/km 2 ) 2010 2045 2010 2045 2010 2045 Sumatera 50.860 72.407 21% 23% 106 151 Jawa Bali 140.941 176.177 59% 55% 1.042 1.303 Nusa Tenggara 9.222 13.701 4% 4% 137 204 Kalimantan 13.851 22.159 6% 7% 25 41 Sulawesi 17.437 23.967 7% 8% 92 127 Maluku Papua 6.207 10.277 3% 3% 13 21 Tier 1 Metropolitan > 1,000,000 Tier 2 LargeCity 500,000 1,000,000 Tier 3 Medium City 100,000 500,000 Tier 4 Small City < 100,000 4
Spreading Growth through Urban Development Mebidangro ManadoMinahasa-Bitung Patungrayaagung Sorong Jayapura Banjarbakula Legend: = Rails Ambon Kedungsepur = Main roads Jabodetabekjur Mamminasata = National Activity Centers = Regional Activity Centers = Port cities Bandung Basin Sarbagita = Aerotropolis Gerbangkertosusilo = Dam = PLTN = Airports = KSN Mebidangro = Medan-Binjai-Deli Serdang-Karo = Palapa Ring Lane = PKN Patungrayaagung = Palembang-Betung-Indralaya-Kayuagung Jabodetabekjur = Jakarta-Bogor-Depok-Tangerang-Bekasi-Cianjur Sarbagita = Denpasar-Badung-Gianyar-Tabanan Kedungsepur = Kendal-Demak-Ungaran-Salatiga-SemarangPurwodadi Banjarbakula = Banjarmasin-Banjarbaru-Banjar-Barito Kuala-Tanah Laut Gerbangkertosusilo = Gresik-Bangkalan-Mojokerto-SurabayaSidoarjo-Lamongan Mamminasata = Makassar-Maros-Sungguminasa-Takalar 5
Log GDP Per Capita (2010 Constant USD) Urbanization Without Growth 12 11 10 Indonesia s urbanization only 1% contribute to increased 4% GDP 9 8 7 6 5 Indonesia y = 0.0482x + 5.8855 R² = 0.5674 The better leveraged is urbanization, the more it will benefit national economic growth 4 0 20 40 60 80 100 Urban population share (%) Log of GDP per capita v urbanization, 2015 But if badly managed, there is a risk of urbanization without growth Source: World Bank, 2017 (based on WDI data 2016) 6
Chronic Shortages in Access to Basic Infrastructure 72% access to improved water supply access 11.4mio Household have no house 42% access to public water supply 11.6mio Households live in homes with physical buildings unfit for habitation 67,5% 1% 14 Improved sanitation access (including 7,4% safe access, appr. 2% of sewerage and appr. 5% of FSM*) serve by sewerage systems cities having substantial sewerage networks 10.8mio IDR 128T 9% 5-20% Households who must live to share the roof with other families yearly loss because of traffic congestion annual growth of rapid motorization public transport share 18 champion cities for FSM* *FSM = Fecal Sludge Management IDR 28T air pollution cost Source: Bappenas dan Yayasan Pelangi 7
8 Integrating NUA s Principles and SDGs
9 Integrating SDGs and NUA in Indonesia SDGs: Universal; Integration; No One Left Behind NUA: Equality Leave No One Behind: Sustainable and Inclusive; Environmental Sustainability
10 Vision for Urban Areas towards sustainable urbanization Liveable Competitive Green and Resilient Local urban identity Instruments: Integrated planningbudgeting-financing Information technology for efficient urban management Transparent, accountable and responsive governance Institutional arrangement
Defining a Metropolitan Area...functional urban areas: a city and its commuting zone Definition of a city Identification of a commuting zone High-density cell (>1.500 inhabitants per km²) Urban centre (duster of highdensity cells with population >50.000 inhabitants per km²) Commune > 50% of its population in an urban centre City Commuting area Commuting area after including enclaves and dropping exclaves City Commune Commune with > 15% of its employed population commuting to the city Larger urban zone Added enclave Removed exclave Source: eurostat, accessed 2018 11
12 Integrated Planning-Budgeting-Financing
13 Sustainable Urban Development and Management National Urban System (SPN) a. City s Function b. Interrelation between cities Environment a. Open Public Spaces b. Waste management strategies c. Clean energy Governance a. Government b. Government control c. Effective public policies 05 06 01 04 Urban and Urban Areas Development 03 02 Social a. Sport facilities b. Education c. Place of worship d. Healthcare Infrastructure a. Drinking water b. Sanitation c. Housing d. Electricity e. Telecommunication f. Roads Economy a. Trading b. Opportunities for investment c. Funding resources
Elements for Integrated Development Planning Capital Investment Development Facilitation Urban Management Monitoring-Evaluation How will we improve statutory plans and their implementation for integrated planning? Urban financing? What tangible benefits and impacts will we see? Source: World Bank, 2017 14
15 Issues in Urban Financing in Tackling Inadequate Urban Infrastructure Cities are not self reliant revenue is not enough to cover expenses Absence of financial investment plans Lack of financial viability weak creditworthiness Low recognition for private investment s to support the mission toward liveable cities high recognition for competitiveness
16 Urban Financing Transfer from Central Government Local Government Budget Bank and institutional loans Non-government investment (PPP, KPBU, PINA, BUMN, etc) Zakat Long term municipal bonds Capital investment planning Projects for sustainable cities
Local Governments with immediate needs for infrastructure investments, and have expressed their interest in issuing Regional Bonds (8/93) Kalimantan Province DKI Jakarta Semarang Balikpapan Surabaya Makassar Bandung Yogyakarta Prov. Source: World Bank, 2017 17
Investment Needs Exceeds Financing Capacity Investment need gap Borrowing capacity Surabaya 2,954 Revenue (excl. Salary, earmarked and contingency fund) Batam 825 Bangka 449 Pontianak 361 Banjarmasin 651 Balikpapan 339 Makasar 860 Bogor 521 Semarang 1,262 Surakarta 279 Gresik 642 Sidoarjo 875 Denpasar 606 Lombok Barat 339 Investment needs, borrowing capacity, and total revenue for 14 qualified subnational governments, USD Millions Source: World Bank, 2015; Directorate General Fiscal Balance Ministry of Finance, 2015 18
19 Financing Urban Infrastructure Different sources of financing to answer Local Government s different infrastructure investment needs Addressed by creative financing such as Regional Infrastructure Development Fund (RIDF), KPBU, PINA, etc
20 Why RIDF? RIDF Demand-based, increase access to financing, rigorous appraisal, thorough monitoring including safeguards standards to ensure low default & good quality infrastructures Before RIDF Top-down approach, limited LG access to financing, inadequate project preparation & appraisal, weak loan monitoring led to defaults & distressed projects Eligible sectors Water & sanitation Environmental infrastructure Low income housing and slum upgrading Productive and logistic infrastructure Social infrastructure Eligible subprojects (examples) WTP, pumping stat Sanitary landfill, waste processing facilities Public housing, integrated urban upgrading Road construction, flyovers School rehab
21 THANK YOU