CAN WELFARE WORK FOR WALES?

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CAN WELFARE WORK FOR WALES? Baseline report November 2015

1. Overview Social security benefits are vitally important to people in Wales. They are received by: o 619,885 children receiving child benefit o 237,000 working-age adults who are out of work o 164,000 low income families who are in work o 651,900 pensioners. Working Age Claimants Amongst those of working age, more than half of claimants are claiming Employment and Support Allowance / Incapacity Benefits. Job Seekers account for only 14% of all claimants. There are nearly as many people claiming benefits because they are carers as there are Job Seekers. Working Age Benefit Claimants, May 2015 Other, 33,370 Carer, 39,000 Lone parent, 24,870 ESA & incapacity benefits, 163,720 Job seeker, 42,680 ESA & incapacity benefits Job seeker Lone parent Carer Other

2. Benefit Expenditure The value of benefits paid to people in Wales in 2014/15 is approx. 10.7 billion. 55% of benefits expenditure ( 6.1 billion) is on pensions and benefits for people over retirement age of which: o the vast majority ( 4.5 billion) is State Pension; o Disability benefits account for 855 million; o Pension Credit accounts for 386 million. Amongst adults of working age, the largest expenditure is on: o Tax Credits ( 1.46 billion); o Employment & Support Allowance ( 829 million); o Housing Benefit ( 722 million) and; o Disability benefits ( 647 million). Other unallocated by age 2% Benefit Expenditure, 2014/15 Other Pensioner Benefits 15% Tax Credits 13% Employment & Support Allowance / Incapacity Benefit 7% State Pension 40% Housing Benefit 7% Disability Living Allownace / SDA / PIP 6% Child Benefit 5% JSA, Carers Allowance, Income Support & other 6% 3

3. Job Seekers Includes people claiming Job Seekers Allowance and a small number claiming other benefits. Number of claimants 42,680 in May 2015 down 43.8% from May 2012, back to mid 2006 levels. 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Number of Job Seekers May 2001 November 2001 May 2002 November 2002 May 2003 November 2003 May 2004 November 2004 May 2005 November 2005 May 2006 November 2006 May 2007 November 2007 May 2008 November 2008 May 2009 November 2009 May 2010 November 2010 May 2011 November 2011 May 2012 November 2012 May 2013 November 2013 May 2014 November 2014 May 2015 Composition 64.3% male. 50.3% under 35 years old, 11.2% over 55 years old. 52.0% claiming less than 6 months; 31.8% claiming one year or more. However older claimants much more likely to be long-term unemployed than younger claimants. Expenditure in Wales 183m on Job Seekers Allowance in 2014/15 4

4. Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) & Incapacity Benefit (IB) Includes claimants of ESA, IB and combinations of benefits including Disability Living Allowance, Severe Disablement Allowance and other income-related benefits such as Income Support. Number of claimants: 163,720 claimants at May 2015. Long-term trend is down but decrease since May 2012 is relatively modest at 4.7% (8,070 claimants), with no change in the last two years. 250,000 ESA and incapacity benefits 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 May 2001 November 2001 May 2002 November 2002 May 2003 November 2003 May 2004 November 2004 May 2005 November 2005 May 2006 November 2006 May 2007 November 2007 May 2008 November 2008 May 2009 November 2009 May 2010 November 2010 May 2011 November 2011 May 2012 November 2012 May 2013 November 2013 May 2014 November 2014 May 2015 Composition at May 2015: Just over half (52.4%) male. 30.3% aged 55-64. 81.5% claiming more than one year; 58.5% claiming more than five years. Expenditure in Wales: 825 million in 2014/15 on ESA and IB 5

I 5. Lone Parents (not working) ncludes claimants of Income Support either alone or in combination with other benefits (but not JSA or ESA/IB, or Child and Working Tax Credits for lone parents in work). Number of claimants: 24,870 claimants as at May 2015. Long term trend is downwards. -5,360 fewer claimants in May 2015 than in May 2012, a decrease of 17.7%. 60,000 Non- working lone parent claimants 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 May 2001 November 2001 May 2002 November 2002 May 2003 November 2003 May 2004 November 2004 May 2005 November 2005 May 2006 November 2006 May 2007 November 2007 May 2008 November 2008 May 2009 November 2009 May 2010 November 2010 May 2011 November 2011 May 2012 November 2012 May 2013 November 2013 May 2014 November 2014 May 2015 Composition at May 2015: 97.4% female. 31.6% under 25 years old; 45.2% aged 25-34 72.7% claiming 1 year and over; 21.0% claiming five years and over. Expenditure: 98 million on Income Support for lone parents. 6

6. Carers Carers receive Carers Allowance either alone or in combination with Income Support or other benefit (not JSA or ESA / IB). Number of claimants: 39,000 claimants as at May 2015 Long term trend is upwards 8,000 more claimants in May 2015 than in May 2012, an increase of 26% 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Number of Carers claiming Carers Allowance May 2001 November 2001 May 2002 November 2002 May 2003 November 2003 May 2004 November 2004 May 2005 November 2005 May 2006 November 2006 May 2007 November 2007 May 2008 November 2008 May 2009 November 2009 May 2010 November 2010 May 2011 November 2011 May 2012 November 2012 May 2013 November 2013 May 2014 November 2014 May 2015 Composition at May 2015 65.7% of carers are female. 57.8% of carers are aged 45-64. 79.7% claiming 1 year or more; 41.1% claiming 5 years or more. Expenditure 145 million on Carers Allowance in 2014/15. 37 million on Income Support for Carers in 2014/15. 7

7. Tax Credits Working Tax Credits top up the incomes of low paid households where someone is in employment. Child Tax Credits help with the costs of bringing up a child, for families in-work and out-of-work. Number 238,000 families with 284,000 children received Child and / or Working Tax Credit in 2013/14. The number of families receiving Child and Working Tax Credits has fallen in the last three years, down from 3000,000 in 2011/12, a drop of 21%. Composition The majority of families receiving Tax Credits are in work - 164,000 families with 245,000 children included someone who is working, in 2013/14. 58,000 in-work claimants were lone parents (35% of claimants). 77% of out-of-work families and 81% of in-work families have one or two children. 30,000 in-work claimants (18%) had no children. Expenditure 1.46 billion in 2013/14. 8. Housing Benefit Number There were 243,571 claimants in August 2015. The trend is slightly downwards 9,892 fewer than in May 2013 (4% decline). Composition at August 2015 66% of claimants live in social housing. 12.3% have spare room subsidy removed 30,000 households. Expenditure Total expenditure in Wales was 1.011 billion in 2014/15. Of this 722 million was for households of working age. 289 million was for households of pension age. 8

9. Child Benefit Child Benefit is payable to all children, although it is slowly withdrawn when one parent or carer earns more than 50,000 and Is not payable at all when a parent earns more than 60,000. Number of claimants: 359,910 families receive Child Benefit as at August 2014 619,885 children receive Child Benefit as at August 2014 10,595 families have opted out of receiving Child Benefit, affecting 18,190 children Composition at August 2014: 85% of families claiming Child Benefit have one or two children; only 15% (54,535) have three or more. Expenditure: Approximately 571 million in 2014/15. 1 1 Calculated from the number of children in claimant families and the rates payable for first and subsequent children. 9

10. State Pension State pension is payable to all people reaching the qualifying age (which is rising for women to age 65 and then for both genders to age 66). Number of claimants 651,900 claim state pension The trend in the number of pension claimants is upwards, with 7.8 more in May 2015 than in May 2012. 660,000 640,000 620,000 600,000 580,000 560,000 540,000 520,000 Number receiving State Pension May 2002 November 2002 May 2003 November 2003 May 2004 November 2004 May 2005 November 2005 May 2006 November 2006 May 2007 November 2007 May 2008 November 2008 May 2009 November 2009 May 2010 November 2010 May 2011 November 2011 May 2012 November 2012 May 2013 November 2013 May 2014 November 2014 May 2015 Composition 56% are female. 41% (273,230) are aged 75 and over. Expenditure 4.496 million in 2014/15 10

11. Pension Credit Pension Credit is payable to pensioners with low incomes. Take-up is estimated to be relatively low. Number 127,220 claimants in May 2015 Trend is downwards 16.9% fall since May 2012, down nearly 26,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Numbers claiming Pension Credit November 2003 May 2004 November 2004 May 2005 November 2005 May 2006 November 2006 May 2007 November 2007 May 2008 November 2008 May 2009 November 2009 May 2010 November 2010 May 2011 November 2011 May 2012 November 2012 May 2013 November 2013 May 2014 November 2014 May 2015 Composition 61.2% are female Just over half (52.4%) are aged 75+ Nearly eight out of ten (78.2%) are single Expenditure 386 million in 2014/15 11

Annex 1 Estimated Expenditure on Benefits ( million) Children & Working Age Tax Credits 1,460.0 ESA / IB 829.4 Housing Benefit 722.2 Disability Living Allowance / Severe Disablement Allowance / Personal Independence Payment 647.1 Child Benefit 571.0 Carers Allowance 144.5 Jobseeker's Allowance 183.1 Income Support 173.3 Maternity 111.2 Disability Living Allowance (children) 95.0 Universal Credit 0.6 TOTAL WORKING AGE 4,326.5 Pension Age State Pension 4,496.5 Pension Credit 386.5 Disability Living Allowance pensioners 470.3 Attendance Allowance 384.9 Housing Benefit over Guaranteed Credit age 288.9 Winter Fuel Payments 115.0 Over 75 TV licences 32.4 Severe Disablement Allowance Pensioners 11.0 TOTAL PENSION AGE 6,185.5 Not allocated by Age Bereavement benefits 29.7 Cold Weather Payments 0.2 Discretionary Housing Payments 8.2 Industrial Injuries Benefits 62.7 TOTAL OTHER 195.8 GRAND TOTAL 10,707.8 12

The Bevan Foundation is an independent think tank that generates new ideas that make Wales fair, prosperous and sustainable. We are funded by a mix of membership subscriptions, donations, grants and commissioned research. We welcome members and supporters from all walks of life to find out more visit www.bevanfoundation.org Bevan Foundation 145a High Street, Merthyr Tydfil CF47 8DP www.bevanfoundation.org info@bevanfoundation.org Registered Charity No. 1104191 13

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