Jobs and Skills. Glasgow Region. comprising East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire and Glasgow City. March 2018

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Transcription:

Jobs and Skills Glasgow Region comprising East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire and Glasgow City March 2018

Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base, (2016) Source: UK Business Counts. 2016. Glasgow Region East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Scotland Agriculture, forestry & fishing 1% 2% 2% 0.2% 10% Production 5% 5% 4% 5% 6% Construction 10% 13% 11% 9% 11% Motor trades 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% Wholesale 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% Retail 10% 7% 8% 11% 8% Transport & storage 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% Accommodation & food services 8% 5% 5% 10% 8% Information & communication 8% 8% 9% 9% 6% Financial & insurance 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% Property 5% 4% 5% 5% 3% Professional, scientific & technical 20% 24% 23% 19% 19% Business administration & support services 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% Public administration & defence 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Education 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Health 5% 5% 5% 6% 4% Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services 9% 9% 9% 9% 7% Total 22,880 2,975 2,605 17,300 171,905

Proportions of businesses by size band, 2016 % of businesses by size band East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Glasgow Scotland 0-9 91% 91% 84% 86% 88% 10-49 8% 8% 13% 11% 10% 50-249 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 250+ 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% Source: UK Business Counts

Deprivation in Glasgow Region by SIMD (2016), Deciles 2 1-10 Source: Scottish Government, 2016 2 See SIMD interactive map here: http://simd.scot/2016/#/simd2016/btttftt/11/-4.0237/56.1325/

Population projections, change by age band 2014 2039 0-15 16-29 30-49 50-64 65-74 75+ Total East Dunbartonshire 4% -10% -3% -17% 14% 95% 6% East Renfrewshire 14% 9% 4% -10% 21% 89% 13% Glasgow City 4% -12% 4% 6% 42% 54% 7% Glasgow Region 5% -10% 3% 0% 34% 66% 7% Scotland 1% -8% -2% -6% 27% 85% 7% Source: National Records of Scotland.

School Leaver Destinations, 2009/10 and 2015/16 Destination Glasgow Region East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Higher education (%) 2009/10 37% 52% 58% 27% 2015/16 42% 57% 61% 31% Change 4% 6% 3% 4% Further education (%) 2009/10 22% 17% 14% 25% 2015/16 20% 14% 13% 24% Change -2% -3% -2% -1% Employment (%) 2009/10 21% 21% 19% 21% 2015/16 25% 23% 19% 27% Change 4% 2% 1% 6% Unemployment (%) * 2009/10 14% 8% 7% 19% 2015/16 9% 4% 5% 11% Change -6% -4% -2% -7% Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset Unemployment Seeking and Unemployment Not Seeking.

'000s Total Employment Projections (jobs), 2000-2027 550 530 510 490 508.4 Total employment (jobs) 488.2 520.6 470 450 430 441.4 463.3 410 390 370 350 Source: Oxford Economics

Glasgow Region Occupational Structure, 2000 and 2017 (people, 000s) 600 2000 2017 500 481.0 400 392.8 300 200 100 0 33.7 42.9 Managers, directors & senior officials 71.6 103.1 Professional occ. 57.4 83.6 Ass. Professional & tech. occ. 61.9 56.6 Admin. & secretarial occ. 42.7 36.6 Skilled trades '000s 26.9 42.8 Caring, leisure & other service 45.3 34.8 28.0 35.7 19.7 Sales & customer service 50.4 Process, plant & Elementary occ. machine operatives Total Source: Oxford Economics

Total employment (people, 000s) by occupation, 2017 and 2027 Managers, directors & senior officials 45.1 Professional occupations 107.6 Associate professional & technical occupations 87.4 Administrative & secretarial occupations Skilled trades occupations 38.9 57.3 2017 2027 Caring, leisure & other service occupations Sales & customer service occupations 45.7 47.8 Process, plant & machine operatives 20.5 Elementary occupations 54.3 Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Data labels for 2027 only

Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (people, 000s), Glasgow Region, 2017-2027 Occupation Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Total Requirement Managers, directors & senior officials 2.3 12.9 15.2 Professional occupations 4.6 57.4 62.0 Associate professional & technical occupations 3.5 25.5 29.0 Administrative & secretarial occupations 0.3 21.5 21.9 Skilled trades occupations 2.4 13.4 15.8 Caring, leisure & other service occupations 3.2 17.2 20.4 Sales & customer service occupations 2.4 25.6 28.0 Process, plant & machine operatives 0.9 7.5 8.3 Elementary occupations 4.1 36.6 40.7 Total 23.7 217.5 241.3 Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data.

Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector, 2017 and 2027 Human health and social work Admin. and support services 74.5 85.5 Wholesale and retail trade Professional, scientific and technical Education Accommodation and food services Construction Public admin. and defence Financial and insurance activities Manufacturing Information and communication Transport and storage Other service activities Arts, entertainment and recreation Real estate activities Water supply, sewerage, waste Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Data labels for 2027 only 45.7 38.8 36.8 28.2 24.2 23.1 18.2 17.9 16.9 14.8 14.5 8.7 3.2 3.0 0.6 0.1 65.9 2017 2027

Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s), Glasgow Region, 2017-2027 Sector Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Total Requirement Agriculture, forestry and fishing -0.02 0.7 0.7 Mining and quarrying -0.03 0.0 0.01 Manufacturing -2.6 6.0 3.4 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning -0.5 1.2 0.8 Water supply, sewerage, waste management -0.3 4.4 4.1 Construction 3.9 9.4 13.4 Wholesale and retail trade 4.0 45.2 49.2 Transport and storage 0.8 15.0 15.8 Accommodation and food services 3.5 22.7 26.3 Information and communication 1.3 0.8 2.1 Financial and insurance activities -0.4 0.9 0.5 Real estate activities 1.0 0.01 0.98 Professional, scientific and technical 6.5 0.5 7.0 Admin. and support services 11.7 48.2 59.9 Public admin. and defence -3.0 12.5 9.5 Education 0.1 19.3 19.4 Human health and social work 4.1 27.3 31.4 Arts, entertainment and recreation 1.3 10.7 12.0 Other service activities 1.7 0.4 2.1 Total 33.1 225.3 258.4 Source: Oxford Economics

Total employment (jobs, 000s) by key sector, 2017 and 2027 Health and social care 85.5 Financial and business services 66.1 Construction Tourism 38.6 37.7 Creative industries Engineering ICT/digital 13.7 21.3 26.4 2017 2027 Food and drink Energy Life sciences Chemical sciences 5.7 5.5 1.6 0.4 Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Data labels for 2027 only

Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s), Glasgow Region, 2017-2027 Key Sector Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Total Requirement Chemical sciences -0.07 0.1 0.1 Creative industries 2.06 4.3 6.3 Construction 5.2 10.5 15.7 Energy -0.2 1.9 1.8 Engineering 0.9 2.7 3.6 Food and drink -0.4 2.2 1.8 Financial and business services 6.2 11.7 17.8 Health and social care 4.1 27.3 31.4 ICT/digital 1.1 0.7 1.8 Life sciences 0.1 0.1 0.3 Tourism 3.6 23.8 27.4 Total 22.7 85.3 108.0 Source: Oxford Economics

Total Employment by qualification (people, 000s), Glasgow Region, 2017 and 2027 SCQF 11-12 55.4 SCQF 7-10 208.5 SCQF 6 SCQF 5 67.0 68.2 2017 2027 SCQF 1-4 47.1 No qualifications 58.6 Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Data labels for 2027 only

Total Requirement by qualification (people, 000s), Glasgow Region, 2017-2027 Qualification Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Total Requirement SCQF 11-12 3.5 12.8 16.3 SCQF 7-10 13.8 100.1 113.9 SCQF 6 0.7 31.4 32.1 SCQF 5 2.8 46.0 48.8 SCQF 1-4 0.1 10.3 10.4 No Qualifications 2.8 17.0 19.8 Total 23.7 217.5 241.3 Source: Oxford Economics.

Paul Zealey paul.zealey@sds.co.uk https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/what-wedo/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments/

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