WEEKLY MARKET WATCH ISSUE NO. 263 NOVEMBER 8 TH 20 NOVEMBER 13 TH 20 ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT Credit Libanais
TABLE OF CONTENTS LEBANON NEWS ECONOMIC INSIGHTS > Lebanon Ranks First in the Middle East and Africa Region in Overall Entrepreneurial Activity 1 > Bayt.com Releases October 20 Middle East Jobs Index Survey 2 > The President of the ABL Praises the Solidity of the Lebanese Economy 3 > Lebanon s Consumer Price Index in September 20 3 > The Lebanese Banking Sector in September 20 4 > Beirut Port Activity Through October 20 5 > MOF Aid Coordination Newsletter Update 5 > Lebanon s Coincident Indicator in August 20 5 LEBANON RANKS FIRST IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA REGION IN OVERALL ENTREPRENEURIAL ACTIVITY MasterCard positioned Lebanon in the first place in the Middle East and Africa region along with Morocco in terms of Overall Entrepreneurial Activity, with 31% of Lebanese and Moroccans being involved in entrepreneurial activities. CORPORATE NEWS > Credit Libanais has Successfully Closed a $75 Million Subordinated Bonds Issue 6 > Kafalat Loans Through October 20 6 MONETARY PERFORMANCE & PUBLIC FINANCE > Monetary Aggregates 7 > Money Markets 7 > Public Debt in September 20 8 FOREIGN EXCHANGE & FIXED INCOME > Foreign Exchange 9 > Fixed Income LEBANESE EQUITIES & GDRs > Lebanese Equities & Credit Libanais Indices 11 > Lebanese GDRs 12 Lebanon's Economic & Financial Sector Indicators 13 Lebanon s Ratings 14 ARAB NEWS > Regional Stock Market Indices 15 > The Egyptian Stock Exchange 15 > The Saudi Stock Exchange 15 > The Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange 16 > The Bahraini Stock Exchange 16 > World Bank Assigns Saudi Arabia Best Place to Do Business in the MENA Region 16 BAYT.COM RELEASES OCTOBER 20 MIDDLE EAST JOBS INDEX SURVEY According to Bayt.com, the overall job market in the Middle East region is expected to remain steady in the upcoming three months, with 54% of surveyed companies affirming or at least pointing out to the possibility of hiring someone in the aforementioned period. THE LEBANESE BANKING SECTOR IN SEPTEMBER 20 The consolidated balance sheet of commercial banks in Lebanon rose by 1.16% on a monthly basis to LBP 191,065 billion ($126.74 billion) as at the end of September 20. WORLD BANK ASSIGNS SAUDI ARABIA BEST PLACE TO DO BUSINESS IN THE MENA REGION According to the World Bank s Doing Business 2011 report, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ranks 11 th among the 183 covered countries, and is considered as the best place to do business in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for the year. ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT SOFIL CENTER BEIRUT - LEBANON TEL: 01-200028/9 FAX: 01-326786
TABLE OF CONTENTS (CTD.) U.S. MARKETS > Jobless Claims in the First Week of November 20 17 > Trade Gap in September 20 17 > Budget Deficit in October 20 17 > U.S. Treasury 17 > U.S. Market Indices 17 BUDGET DEFICIT IN OCTOBER 20 According to the U.S. Treasury Department, the U.S budget deficit tightened by a significant 20% on an annual basis to $140 billion in October 20, down from $176 billion a year earlier. ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT SOFIL CENTER BEIRUT - LEBANON TEL: 01-200028/9 FAX: 01-326786
SYNOPSIS OF TERMS "BDL" "ABL" "MOF" "BOP" "IMF" "Moody's" "BSE" "GDRs" "M1" "M2" "M3" "M4" "CPI" "PPI" "CLASI" "CLFI" "CLCI" EIU "P/E" "P/BV" "YTD" "YTD Price Performance" "Forex" "LBP" "USD" "Yen" "GBP" "CHF" "Y-O-Y" "GDP" "MENA" "FOMC" LE SAR AED BD Banque Du Liban Association of Banks in Lebanon The Lebanese Ministry of Finance Balance of Payment The International Monetary Fund Moody's Investors Service Beirut Stock Exchange Global Depositary Receipts Currency in Circulation + Demand Deposits in LBP M1 + Other Deposits in LBP M2 + Deposits in Foreign Currencies M3+ Treasury Bills Held By Non Banking System, Including Accrued Interests Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index Economist Intelligence Unit Price to Earnings Multiple Price to Book Multiple Year To Date Yield to Date Price Appreciation Foreign Exchange The Lebanese Pound The United States Dollar The Japanese Yen The British Pound/ Sterling Pound The Swiss Franc Year-On-Year Gross Domestic Product Middle East and North Africa Federal Open Market Committee Livre Egyptienne Egyptian Pound Saudi Arabian Riyal United Arab Emirates Dirham Bahraini Dinar ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT SOFIL CENTER BEIRUT - LEBANON TEL: 01-200028/9 FAX: 01-326786
ECONOMIC INSIGHTS LEBANON RANKS FIRST IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA REGION IN OVERALL ENTREPRENEURIAL ACTIVITY MasterCard has published early this month the Women-Owned SMEs in Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa: An Assessment of the Business Environment report, in which it analyses the contribution of women entrepreneurs in the economy in 24 countries in the Asia/Pacific and Middle East and Africa region (APMEA). The report indicated that women-owned small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) contribute significantly to the welfare of the economies and improve women s quality of life. More particularly, the report stated that women-owned SMEs play a major role in reducing gender inequality in the labor market given that women entrepreneurs have a tendency towards employing women. In addition, the report mentioned that womenowned SMEs have better credit rating and loan repayment. As far as the Middle East and Africa region is concerned, Egypt proved to have the highest number of women-owned SMEs (158,500 in 2007), followed by South Africa (138,000 in 2009), Morocco (15,700 in 2007), UAE (2,400 in 2005) and Qatar (0 in 2004) on a respective basis. As for Lebanon, the report noted that women-owned SMEs are mainly concentrated in small businesses, yet some women s divergence towards male-dominated sectors such as engineering and industry has been evidenced lately. Furthermore, the report highlighted that almost half (48.7%) of 230 Lebanese businesswomen owned SMEs in 2007, the majority of whom financed their activities through reinvesting business earnings, 28.4% through private sources (savings, loans from friends, etc.) and 20% through loans from banks or financial institutions. Nevertheless, the report noted that women-owned SMEs in Lebanon need support in terms of market exposure, technical know-how, innovation, etc. Moreover, the report positioned Lebanon in the first place in the Middle East and Africa region along with Morocco in terms of Overall Entrepreneurial Activity with 31% of Lebanese and Moroccans being involved in entrepreneurial activities. Nevertheless, the report indicated that Lebanon enjoys a low rate of working females as a percentage of the female population (22.6%), among the lowest in the Middle East and Africa region. Overall Entrepreneurial Activity (% Latest Year) Women Employees as % of Working Females (%, Latest Year) Working Females to Female Population > 15 years old (%, Latest Year) Saudi Arabia 8.8 NA 18.0 UAE 19.0 99.0 38.0 South Africa 7.3 84.2 49.5 Qatar NA 99.9 39.8 Kuwait NA 99.5 41.8 Kenya NA NA 67.3 Egypt 20.2 47.9 19.3 Lebanon 31.0 81.6 22.6 Nigeria NA NA 37.4 Morocco 31.0 34.0 22.0 Source: M asterintelligence - "Women-Owned SM Es in Asia/Pacific, M iddle East and Africa: an Assessment of the Business Environment" Overall Entrepreneurial Activity Women Employment Opportunities Lebanon s Overall Entrepreneurial Activity Lebanon News Morocco Lebanon 31.0 31.0 HIGH 31.0% Egypt 20.2 22.6% 81.6% South Africa 7.3 LOW HIGH UAE Saudi Arabia 8.8 19.0 Working Females as % of Female Population (15+) Female Employees as % of Working Females 0.0 5.0.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 Employment Opportunities for Women MASTER INTELLIGENCE 1
BAYT.COM RELEASES OCTOBER 20 MIDDLE EAST JOBS INDEX SURVEY ECONOMIC INSIGHTS According to the October 20 issue of the Middle East Jobs Index Survey published by Bayt.com, one of the leading job sites in the Middle East region, the overall job market in the Middle East region is expected to remain steady in the upcoming three months with some 54% of surveyed companies affirming or at least pointing out to the possibility of hiring someone in the aforementioned period, with the same percentage recorded in the previous quarter. More particularly, 25% of the surveyed managers indicated that they would be definitely hiring in the upcoming three-month period while 29% assumed some probability of hiring. Moreover, the report indicated that things look somehow brighter on the long-term perspective, with some 29% of the respondents falling into the definitely hiring category and some 40% reflecting some probability of hiring. As far as Lebanon is concerned, recruitment activity is projected to remain steady projected at a rate of 22% over the upcoming three months. Nevertheless, the job market in Lebanon is expected to witness a slight slowdown in the long run with 29% of the surveyed companies affirming that they will be definitely hiring over the coming one-year period in comparison with 30% over the past quarter. Academic wise, the survey revealed that most employers seek graduates in the business management spectrum in each of Lebanon (38%), Saudi Arabia (29%), Algeria (33%), Bahrain (37%), Pakistan (38%) and the UAE (29%). On the personal skills front, communication and teamwork skills are among the key selection criteria when hiring in Lebanon with employers assigning teamwork and good communication skills respective weights of 61% and 52%. The following section unveils Lebanon s hiring preferences in the upcoming three-month and one-year periods along with the favorite academic and personal skills qualifications: Hiring Preferences in Lebanon for the Three-Month Period Ranging between Aug 20- Oct 20 Nov 20- Jan 2011 Change Definitely Hiring 22% 22% Probably Hiring 39% 30% Probably Not Hiring 5% % Defenitely Not Hiring 6% 3% Don't Know 28% 28% Source: Bayt.com Hiring Preferences in Lebanon for the One-Year Period Ranging between Aug 20- Oct 20- Change Aug 2011 Oct 2011 Definitely Hiring 30% 29% Probably Hiring 41% 43% Probably Not Hiring 1% 4% Defenitely Not Hiring 5% 7% Don't Know 22% 18% Source: Bayt.com Hiring Preference in Lebanon in the Upcoming Three Months Nov - Jan 11 Defenitely Not Hiring 3% Don't Know 28% Defenitely Not Hiring, 7% Probably Not Hiring, 4% Probably Not Hiring % Definitely Hiring 22% Probably Hiring 30% Hiring Preference in Lebanon in the Upcoming Year Oct -Oct 11 Don't Know, 18% Probably Hiring, 43% Definitely Hiring, 29% Lebanon News Academic Preference For Lebanese Employers Personal Skills Preference For Employers (Lebanon) Computer Science Qualifications 22 Productivity 41 Engineering Graduation Administrative Qualifications 22 23 Honesty Leadership Skills Ability to Work Under Pressure 44 45 44 Commerce Graduations 24 Teamwork Abilities 52 Business Management Graduation 26 Good Communications Skills 61 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 BAYT.COM 2
THE PRESIDENT OF THE ABL PRAISES THE SOLIDITY OF THE LEBANESE ECONOMY ECONOMIC INSIGHTS The President of the Association of Banks in Lebanon (ABL) Dr. Joseph Torbey praised the solidity of the Lebanese economy despite the various local, regional, and international instabilities during the inauguration of The Lebanese Banks Day in London on November, 20. According to Dr. Torbey, said solidity is primarily attributed to the prevailing confidence in the Lebanese economy, with transfers towards Lebanon exceeding the $13.3 billion mark and capital inflows surpassing the $28.4 billion bar since the year 2007. The President of the ABL also highlighted that the ongoing capital inflows have a major role in alleviating the country s $13 billion deficit and improving its balance of payment, which recorded a $16 billion surplus after the year 2007, lifting as such Lebanon s net foreign assets. Dr. Torbey pointed out that Lebanon has accumulated unprecedented high levels of foreign currency reserves, covering as such 43% of the broad money, 70% of foreign currency deposits, and more than 86% of the country s short-term external debt. Furthermore, Dr. Torbey stated that Lebanese banks consolidated balance sheet has reached around $133 billion till present, representing 3.5 times the country s GDP, which is estimated at $38 billion by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In this context, the President of the ABL praised Banque Du Liban s stringent policies, the Lebanese Banking Control Commission s close monitoring, and the constant communication and cooperation with the ABL, which contributed to the astounding performance of the sector, particularly on the liquidity and capital adequacy fronts. Concurrently, Dr. Torbey expressed the Lebanese banks eagerness to abide by the Basel III requirements, highlighting the sector s abidance by the Basel I and II requirements and other international standards, its efficient risk management practices, and diversified deposits portfolio. On the investment front, Dr. Torbey deemed Lebanon as attractive to foreign investors, with a relatively moderate tax environment, a strict banking secrecy law, a qualified and skilled labor force, and a liberalized economy. LEBANON S CONSUMER PRICE INDEX IN SEPTEMBER 20 According to the Central Administration of Statistics (CAS), Lebanon witnessed a moderate appreciation in the average price of a Lebanese-consumer good-basket, with the consumer price index (CPI), which is an indicative measure of inflation, rising by 5.05% on an annual basis to 132.41 in September 20, up from 126.04 in September 2009. Concurrently, Lebanon s CPI rose by 2.48% on a monthly basis from a reading of 129.21 in the month of August 20. 134 132 130 128 126 124 122 Evolution of Lebanon's Consumer Price Index 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% -1.50% Lebanon News Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Consumer Price Index CPI (%) ALMUSTAQBAL, THE ASSOCIATION OF BANKS IN LEBANON (ABL) 3
ECONOMIC INSIGHTS THE LEBANESE BANKING SECTOR IN SEPTEMBER 20 The consolidated balance sheet of commercial banks in Lebanon rose by 1.16% on a monthly basis to LBP 191,065 billion ($126.74 billion) as at the end of September 20, up from LBP 188,877 billion ($125.29 billion) in August. This owes to a 1.40% rise in commercial banks deposits at the Central Bank to LBP 59,831 billion ($39.69 billion) coupled with a 1.84% increase in loans to the resident private sector to LBP 43,507 billion ($28.86 billion). On an annual basis, total banking sector assets have expanded by 15.33%, from LBP 165,671 billion ($9.90 billion) in September 2009. USD Billion Sept-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep- Total Assets 64.84 68.57 73.52 81.62 91.74 9.90 126.74 Loans 15.65 15.93 16.98 17.23 20.94 23.41 28.86 Deposits 53.48 56.03 59.70 66.35 75.97 92.17 5.18 Total Dollarization Rate (Private & Public) 66.78% 71.99% 73.61% 76.40% 71.18% 65.17% 61.78% Loans/Deposits Ratio 29.27% 28.43% 28.43% 25.96% 27.57% 25.39% 27.44% Source: The Association of Banks in Lebanon Evolution of Commercial Banks' Consolidated Assets Concurrently, consolidated customer deposits firmed at LBP 158,553 billion ($5.18 billion) as at the end of the third quarter of 20, with the deposits dollarization rate (public and private sector) sustaining its downturn to settle at 61.78%, down from 61.84% in August, substantially below the 65.17% rate registered during the same period last year. On the lending front, commercial banks consolidated lending activity to the private sector reached LBP 43,507 billion ($28.86 billion), up from LBP 35,285 billion ($23.41 billion) in the preceding year. Concurrently, the loans to deposits ratio reached 27.44%, up from 25.39% last year. 120.00 0.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 USD Billion 140.00 120.00 0.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 64.84 Activity In The Lebanese Banking Sector CAGR: 11.82% 81.62 91.74 68.57 73.52 9.90 126.74 Sept-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep- Sept-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep- 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00%.00% 0.00% Lebanon News Loans (USD Billion) Deposits (USD Billion) Dollarization Rate (Deposits) Loans/Deposits Ratio THE ASSOCIATION OF BANKS IN LEBANON (ABL) 4
ECONOMIC INSIGHTS BEIRUT PORT ACTIVITY THROUGH OCTOBER 20 The Beirut port freight activity was up by 4.15% y-o-y reaching 5,492 thousand tons through October 20 in comparison with 5,274 thousand tons as at the end of October 2009. During the month of October alone, freight activity rose by 4.94% year-on-year to 78,034 tons. On the other hand, the number of vessels fell by 3.40% to 1,934 vessels by the end of October 20, down from 2,002 a year earlier, while the number of containers shed 3.94% to 805,888 containers, down from 82,240 a year earlier. This is further sketched by the following table: Indicators For The Ten-Month Period Ending Oct-09 Oct- % Change Freight Activity (000 Tons) 5,274 5,492 4.15% Number of Vessels 2,002 1,934-3.40% Number of Imported Cars 82,240 81,709-0.65% Number of Containers 838,900 805,888-3.94% Source: Beirut Port, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit MOF AID COORDINATION NEWSLETTER UPDATE According to the Ministry of Finance ( MOF ) Aid Coordination Newsletter number 36 published by the Lebanese Ministry of Finance ("MOF"), the aggregate value of agreements (signed and disbursed) with international donors reached 194,000 and $200,000 in October 20 broken down as follows: YOY 194,000 grant agreement signed by the Italian Development Cooperation Office geared towards financing the conservation and refurbishment of the Roman Tomb of Tyr. Said project will be accomplished by an Italian expert, an Italian restorer and a Lebanese team of skilled restorers; and $200,000 grant agreement by the United States to the humanitarian organization Mines Advisory Group (MAG) aiming at financing demining projects. Donor Support During the Month of October 20 Donor Amount Aim Italy 194,000 Financing the conservation and refurbishment of the Roman Tomb of Tyr United States $200,000 Financing demining projects Source: The Lebanese M inistry of Finance LEBANON S COINCIDENT INDICATOR IN AUGUST 20 Banque Du Liban s coincident indicator, which is an indicative measure of economic activity, fell by 9.37% during the month of August to a reading of 228.3, down from 251.9 in July 20. The coincident indicator, however, posted a 3.49% annual appreciation from 220.6 a year ago, thus portraying a moderate improvement in Lebanon s key macroeconomic indicators. Evolution of Lebanon's Coincident Indicator Lebanon News 300 250 220.6 211.1 233.5 242.7240.5 244.1 245.8 264.5 259.4 250.8 249.9 251.9 228.3 200 150 0 50 0 PORT OF BEIRUT, THE LEBANESE MINISTRY OF FINANCE, ABL 5
CORPORATE NEWS CREDIT LIBANAIS HAS SUCCESSFULLY CLOSED A $75 MILLION SUBORDINATED BONDS ISSUE Credit Libanais Bank S.A.L has successfully closed a $75 million subordinated bonds issue (classified under Tier II capital) on November 11, 20. The bonds bear an annual coupon rate of 6.75%, payable annually with the interest payments subject to a 5% withholding tax rate. Credit Libanais Investment Bank S.A.L, the investment arm of Credit Libanais S.A.L, acted as deal arranger to the subordinated debt issue. The bonds mature on January 2018, with an issue price of 0% of the principal amount of the bonds. The issue was about 1.5 times oversubscribed with subscriptions restricted to local demand. KAFALAT LOANS THROUGH OCTOBER 20 The number of guarantees issued by the government-subsidized program KAFALAT rose to 1,189 through October 20 in comparison with 852 guarantees a year earlier. The face value of said guarantees reached LBP 213.22 billion ($141.4 million) with the average value per guarantee shedding to LBP 179 million ($119.0 thousands) down from LBP 201 million ($136.6 thousands) in the same period last year. The substantial majority (45.16%) of issued Kafalat loans was allocated over the agricultural sector, followed by the industrial (37.43%) and tourism (14.30%) sectors. Kafalat Loans by Sector During The Ten-Month Period Ending y-o-y Oct-09 Oct- % Change Agriculture 369 537 45.53% Industry 329 445 35.26% Tourism 1 170 54.55% Others 44 37-15.91% Total 852 1,189 39.55% Value of Guarantees ($million) 113.9 141.4 24.18% Average Value per Guarantee ($ 000) 133.6 119.0 -.96% Source: Kafalat, Credit Libanais Research Unit On the other hand, the breakdown of Kafalat loans by region depicts a heavy concentration in the Beirut and Mount Lebanon region, accounting for 47.27% of total issued Kafalat loans up to October 20, followed by the South and Nabatieh (21.87%), Bekaa (18.67%) and North (12.20%) regions. Kafalat Loans by Region During The Ten-Month Period Ending y-o-y Oct-09 Oct- % Change Beirut & Mount Lebanon 443 562 26.86% South & Nabatieh 166 260 56.63% Bekaa 126 222 76.19% North 117 145 23.93% Total 852 1,189 39.55% Source: Kafalat, Credit Libanais Research Unit Breakdown of Kafalat Loans By Sector Through October 20 Tourism 14.30% Industry 37.43% Others 3.11% Agriculture 45.16% Breakdown of Kafalat Loans By Region Through October 20 Bekaa 18.67% South & Nabatieh 21.87% North 12.20% Beirut & Mount Lebanon 47.27% Lebanon News KAFALAT, CREDIT LIBANAIS 6
MONETARY AGGREGATES On the monetary front, all monetary aggregates closed on a positive note during the week of October 28. The overall money supply M4 rose by $149.23 million on a weekly basis to $94.94 billion, with a $42.45 million expansion in non-banking sector treasury bills. On the other hand, Lebanese-pound denominated deposits and currency in circulation M1 rose by 2.26% for the week to $3.36 billion owing to a $5.47 million increase in demand deposits, outweighing as such the $31.18 million drop in money in circulation. Local currency term deposits, M2, inched down by 0.30% on a weekly basis while soaring by 19.71% on an annual basis to $38.64 billion. Consequently, private sector term and saving deposits denominated in LBP ( M2-M1 ) widened by a shy $41.11 million to $35.29 billion with deposits denominated in foreign currencies ( M3 M2 ) firming at $51.08 billion. MONEY MARKETS On the money market front, the November 4 th Treasury bill auction raised LBP 647.891 billion, up from LBP 124.270 billion the week before. The auction resulted in a surplus over nominal subscription of LBP 129.248 billion in comparison with a surplus of LBP 31.272 billion in the preceding week. The bulk of the subscriptions was concentrated in the three-year to maturity T-bills, constituting alone around 93.38% of total aggregate subscriptions, followed by the one-year (4.76%) and two-year (1.86%) to maturity securities. The weighted average yield on Lebanese Pound Treasury bills fell to 5.88% during the November 4 th auction in comparison with 5.91% during the latest auction of same maturities held on the 21 st of October 20. This is mainly attributed to the declining subscription share in the higher yielding three-year to maturity T-bills, from 97.04% of total face value during the October 21 st auction to 93.38% during the November 4 th auction. More particularly, the one-year to maturity T-bills yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.81% while the two-year and one-year T-bills yields remained flat at 5.94% and 5.34% respectively. Lebanese Treasury Bills October 28 Auction Yield (%) Face Value (in billions of LBP) % of Total Face Value MONETARY PERFORMANCE Money Supply October 21, 20 October 28, 20 % Change USD Million M1 3,280 3,355 2.26% M2 38,529 38,644 0.30% M3 89,612 89,719 0.12% M4 94,786 94,935 0.16% M2-M1 35,249 35,290 0.12% M3-M2 51,083 51,075-0.02% Source: Banque Du Liban, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Lebanese Treasury Bills 86,000 66,000 46,000 26,000 6,000 3 Months Money Supply - USD Million - 94,786 94,935 89,612 89,719 October 21, 20 M4 6 Months 12 Months October 28, 20 M3 On The Run Yield Curve 24 Months 36 Months 60 Months 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 November 4 Auction Yield (%) Face Value (in billions of LBP) % of Total Face Value Monetary Performance 3 Months 3.93% 14.075 11.33% 12 Months 4.81% 30.857 4.76% 6 Months 4.52% 93.5 75.25% 24 Months 5.34% 12.045 1.86% 60 Months 6.18% 16.685 13.43% 36 Months 5.94% 604.990 93.38% Total 124.270 0.00% Total 647.891 0.00% Source: Reuters, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit As for the latest auction dated November 11, 20, the following table spots the light on the evolution of yields by maturity: Certificates Of Deposits 45 Days 60 Days Interest Rate/Period 3.57% 3.85% Lebanese Treasury Bills 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months 24 Months 36 Months 60 Months Treasury Yield 3.93% 4.52% 4.81% 5.34% 5.94% 6.18% BANQUE DU LIBAN, REUTERS 7
PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC DEBT IN SEPTEMBER 20 On the public finance front, Lebanon s gross public debt rose by 3.44% during the one-year period ending September 20 to $50.85 billion, up from $49.16 billion in September 2009, according to the latest statistics published by the Association of Banks in Lebanon. Domestic debt, which constitutes 58.74% of gross public debt, grew by 7.28% to $29.87 billion, with external debt shedding by 1.58% to $20.98 billion. When factoring out public sector deposits, which added 11.60% to $6.21 billion, net public debt rose by a moderate 2.39% to $44.64 billion. Public Debt (USD Billion) September 2009 September 20 YOY % Change Gross Public Debt 49.16 50.85 3.44% Domestic Debt 27.84 29.87 7.28% External Debt 21.32 20.98-1.58% Public Sector Deposits 5.57 6.21 11.60% Net Public Debt 43.59 44.64 2.39% Source: The Association of Banks in Lebanon, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit External Debt 41.26% Composition of Gross Public Debt in September 20 Domestic Debt 58.74% It is worth highlighting that Lebanon s net public debt has been accumulating steam at a compounded annual growth rate of 5.41% p.a. over the seven-year period ending September 20, from $32.55 billion in September 2004, as captured by the chart below. Billions of USD 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00.00 5.00 0.00 Sept- 04 Evolution of Net Public Debt CAGR:5.41% 43.59 44.64 40.89 36.43 38.28 34.16 32.55 Sept- 05 Sept- 06 Sept- 07 Sept- 08 Sept- 09 Sept- Public Finance THE ASSOCIATION OF BANKS IN LEBANON (ABL) 8
FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE Domestically, demand for the higher yielding Lebanese Pound sustained its healthy momentum in spite of the prevailing political tensions. The inter-bank trading range hovered between LBP 1,500.5 and LBP 1,501.5. In mid Friday session, the Euro appreciated by 0.20% against the U.S. Dollar for the day to $1.3691 after having hovered between $1.3571 and $1.3777. On a weekly basis, the Euro currency depreciated by 2.42% against the U.S. Dollar to $1.3691, recording its worst week since the month of August. The Euro s losing streak is mainly attributed to investors worries regarding Ireland s public finances, with Ireland expected to have difficulties to reimburse its debts, and to have recourse to financial assistance. It is worth noting that the Euro currency neared a six-week low against the Dollar during the past week. The U.S. Dollar headed north against the Japanese Yen, gaining some 1.54% for the week to a market close of 82.50 Yen. The Dollar traded between a range of 81.63 and 82.65 against the Yen on Friday, ending the day at 82.50 Yen. The Dollar s gaining streak against the Yen comes as a result of the rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields. Nevertheless, the outlook regarding the performance of the U.S. Dollar remains blurry, with a relatively high inflation rate, and uncertainty regarding any further monetary intervention by the Federal Reserves, among others. The Sterling Pound (GBP) depreciated by 0.27% against the U.S. Dollar for the week. The British Pound was trading between $1.5985 and $1.6183, before ending the week at $1.6133 in New York session. The Sterling Pound s losing momentum is mainly attributed to the recurring debt worries in the Euro zone, with the possibility of monetary easing in the U.K. rising during the past week. Fears regarding Ireland s public finances seemed to affect the Sterling Pound as well, with some U.K. banks being exposed to Ireland s hefty debt burden. It is worth noting, however, that the Sterling Pound neared a seven-week high against the Euro currency during the past week. Major Currencies Previous Last % Change Major Currencies Previous Last % Change EUR/USD 1.4031 1.3691-2.42% USD/LBP 1,507.5 1,507.5 0.00% GBP/USD 1.6177 1.6133-0.27% EUR/LBP 2,136.4 2,055.8-3.77% USD/JPY 81.25 82.50 1.54% CAD/LBP 1,500.5 1,488.9-0.77% USD/CHF 0.9611 0.9805 2.02% CHF/LBP 1,576.7 1,549.2-1.75% USD/CAD 1.0003 1.0090 0.87% GBP/LBP 2,443.5 2,413.2-1.24% Major Crosses EUR GBP CHF JPY CAD Gold Gold & Silver Silver (in USD) Silver EUR - 0.8496 1.3430 112.995 1.3853 Gold kg 995 Ounce Kg Ounce GBP 1.1770-1.5808 133.000 599.4650 43,928.15 1,366.35 835.58 25.99 CHF 0.7446 0.6326-84.135 1.0315 World Interest rates levels JPY 0.8850 0.7519 1.1886-1.2259 Period USD GBP CHF JPY CAD EUR CAD 0.7219 0.6133 0.9695 81.570 - O/N 0.2000 0.3700 0.00 0.0200 0.8000 0.7700 1 M onth 0.1800 0.4300 0.00-0.0200 0.9500 0.6400 USD Libor (%) Previous Last 3 M onths 0.3200 0.6200 0.00 0.0800 1.1700 0.8200 1 Month 0.25344 0.25344 6 M onths 0.40 0.9600 0.2300 0.3000 1.3800 1.2000 3 Month 0.28563 0.28438 1 Year 0.7600 1.4000 0.5200 0.5200 1.8200 1.4400 5 Years 1.3628 1.8140 0.9130 0.3460 2.2690 1.6550 6 Month 0.44188 0.44281 Years 2.7853 3.1950 1.5440 1.00 3.0260 2.5330 1 Year 0.75525 0.76281 30 Years 4.29 4.2540 1.8060 2.0360 3.6300 3.0580 Source: Banque du Liban, Credit Libanais Forex Department, Reuters Foreign Exchange CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT, ACTION FOREX 9
FIXED INCOME FIXED INCOME The Lebanese Ministry of Finance has successfully closed a new Republic of Lebanon (ROL) Eurobond issue raising $725 million in the aggregate. The new Eurobond issue is allocated over 2 tranches, an eight-year tranche with total subscriptions of $500 million, maturing in 2018 and bearing an annual coupon rate of 5.15% payable semi-annually and a twelve-year tranche with total subscriptions of $225 million, maturing in 2022 and carrying an annual coupon rate of 6.1% payable semi-annually. In this perspective, the eight-year tranche was 5 times oversubscribed while the twelve-year tranche was 2.5 times oversubscribed. The new ROL Eurobond issue was 74.4% allocated domestically with the remaining 25.6% allocated to international investors. It is worth noting that the ROL Eurobond issue was managed by Credit Suisse Group AG and Bank Of Beirut. On the Lebanese Eurobond market front, the new issue traded below the offer price with some selling being witnessed on the long end of the curve. Spreads tightened to 270.30 basis points during the week of Friday November 12, 20, down from 304.36 basis points in the preceding week. LEBANESE EUROBONDS Lebanese Eurobonds Currency Coupon Maturity Issue Spread Bid Ask Bid Yield Bid Spread epub c o eba o US 68 5% Government o 0 Eurobonds 0 500 0 300 9 3% 6 Republic of Lebanon USD 7.880% May-11 366 2.750 3.150 2.390% 218 Republic of Lebanon USD 7.500% Aug-11-3.500 4.000 2.470% 226 Republic of Lebanon USD 7.500% Mar-12-6.000 6.500 2.890% 244 Republic of Lebanon USD 7.750% Sep-12 385 7.870 8.250 3.220% 277 Republic of Lebanon USD 9.130% Mar-13-112.500 113.000 3.460% 282 Republic of Lebanon USD 8.630% Jun-13 478 112.500 113.000 3.530% 289 Republic of Lebanon USD 7.380% Apr-14-1.370 1.870 4.080% 286 Republic of Lebanon USD 9.000% May-14 515 115.750 116.250 4.070% 285 Republic of Lebanon USD 5.875% Jan-15-4.120 4.620 4.760% 355 Banque Du Liban USD.000% Apr-15 625 121.250 121.750 4.640% 343 Republic of Lebanon USD 8.500% Aug-15-116.000 116.500 4.670% 346 Republic of Lebanon USD 8.500% Jan-16-116.500 117.000 4.850% 363 Republic of Lebanon USD 11.630% May-16 647 129.750 130.500 5.300% 408 Republic of Lebanon USD 9.000% Mar-17-121.370 121.870 5.020% 243 Republic of Lebanon USD 4.000% Dec-17-98.250 98.750 4.280% 195 Republic of Lebanon USD 6.375% Mar-20-4.620 5.120 5.720% 314 Republic of Lebanon USD 8.250% Apr-21-117.300 117.800 5.990% 340 Republic of Lebanon USD 7.000% Dec-24-4.500 5.000 6.500% 392 Republic of Lebanon USD 5.150% Nov-18-99.900 0.200 5.160% 258 Republic of Lebanon USD 6.0% Oct-22-99.900 0.400 6.1% 352 Republic of Lebanon EUR 5.880% Apr-12-3.500 4.000 3.260% 249 Source: Credit Libanais Capital Markets YIELD - SPREAD EVOLUTION Fixed Income Friday - October 29 20 Friday - November 5 20 Friday - November 12 20 Republic of Lebanon Bid Yield 4.31% 4.27% 3.89% Republic of Lebanon Bid Spread (bps) 298.76 304.36 270.30 U.S. year T-Bond Yield 2.61% 2.54% 2.76% ROL Bid spread over U.S. Year T-Bond (bps) 170.22 173.33 113.20 Source: Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit As portrayed by the table above, Republic of Lebanon (ROL) bid spreads over the U.S. year T-Bond fell to 113.20 bps, down from 173.33 bps a week earlier. Bid spreads over the entire U.S. treasury curve contracted to 270.30 bps down from 304.36 bps the week before, easing as such the pressure on ROL bond prices. 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 4.31% 2.99 2.61% Friday - October 29 20 Yield - Spread Evolution 4.27% 3.04 2.54% Friday - November 5 20 2.7 3.89% 2.76% Friday - November 12 20 3.1 3 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 Republic of Lebanon Bid Yield U.S. year T-Bond Yield ROL Bid spread over U.S. Year T-Bond (bps) CREDIT LIBANAIS CAPITAL MARKETS, CREDIT LIBANAIS RESEARCH UNIT
LEBANESE EQUITIES Activity on the Beirut Stock Exchange was relatively robust last week with the number of shares traded soaring to,974,231, in comparison with 614,388 in the preceding week, thanks to block trades on Bank Audi and BLOM Bank listed shares. The Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index (CLASI) reversed its upturn, closing down by 0.37% for the week at 1,244.81. Four losers and two gainers were spotted during the week, decreasing market capitalization by 0.33% to $12.21 billion, from $12.25 billion a week earlier. Value traded, however, rallied to $90.66 million, up from $8.26 million a week ago, owing to the block trades on Bank Audi and BLOM Bank listed shares worth some $86.50 million. On the real estate and construction front, the price of Solidere A and B shares closed on a negative note, down by 1.61% and 1.62% to $18.39 and $18.20 respectively, dragging the Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index (CLCI) down by 1.21% to 925.68. In the banking sector, Bank Audi led the weekly trades with 8,032,631 shares, followed by BLOM Bank with 2,540,767 shares. The Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index (CLFI) weighed in favor of the two losing banking stocks, ending the week almost flat at 1,435.57. On the international scene, Solidere GDR was the biggest gainer of the week, closing up by 1.15% at $18.40. LEBANESE EQUITIES & GDRS Credit Libanais Previous Closing Weekly Indices 5-Nov- 12-Nov- % Change Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index <.CLASI> 1,249.44 1,244.81-0.37% Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index <.CLFI> 1,435.59 1,435.57-0.001% Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index <.CLCI> 936.98 925.68-1.21% Source: Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Index Value 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,0 12-Nov- 09 15-Dec- 09 Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index Weekly Performance CLASI 17-Jan- 19-Feb- CLASI 0.37% 24-Mar- 26-Apr- 29-May- 01-Jul- 03-Aug- 05-Sep-.CLASI Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index Friday, November 12, 20 Value Daily % Chng Daily Net Chng 1,244.81 0.261% 3.24 Yr.High Year Hi.Date Yr.Low Year.Lo.Date 1,423.26 12-Apr- 1,230.25 12-Oct- Life High Life Hi.Date Life Low Life.Lo.Date 1,801.01 7-Jul-08 836.11 25-Mar-09 08-Oct- -Nov- Lebanese Equities 1,600 Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index Weekly Performance CLFI 1,600 Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index Weekly Performance CLCI 1,550 1,550 1,500 1,500 Index Value 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 12-Nov- 09 15-Dec- 09 17-Jan- 19-Feb- 24-Mar- 26-Apr- 29-May- CLFI 0.001% 01-Jul- 03-Aug- 05-Sep- 08-Oct- -Nov- Index Value 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 12-Nov-09 15-Dec-09 17-Jan- 19-Feb- CLCI 1.21% 24-Mar- 26-Apr- 29-May- 01-Jul- 03-Aug- 05-Sep- 08-Oct- -Nov- CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 11
LEBANESE EQUITIES & GDRS (CTD.) Lebanese Equities BEIRUT STOCK EXCHANGE Closing %change Weekly Total Market Leading P/E P/BV YTD Price Volume Listed Capitalisation Perf. Traded Shares ($000) Solidere A $18.39-1.61% 98,584 0,000,000 $1,839,000.00 16.65 1.75-23.4% Solidere B $18.20-1.62% 92,660 65,000,000 $1,183,000.00 16.48 1.73-24.4% BLC "C" Bank $1.67 0.00% - 50,900,000 $85,003.00 7.59 1.11 4.4% Bank Audi Listed Shares $7.99-0.12% 8,032,631 344,189,4 $2,750,073.39 8.88 1.29-6.00% Bank Audi GDR $8.44 0.00% - 1,567,6 $857,230.63 9.38 1.37-4.8% Bank Audi Preferred "D" $.45 0.00% - 12,500,000 $130,625.00 n.a n.a n.a Bank Audi Preferred "E" $0.50 0.00% - 1,250,000 $125,625.00 n.a n.a n.a Bank Of Beirut "C" $18.54 0.00% - 16,822,467 $311,888.54 13.24 1.79-1.12% Bank Of Beirut Preferred "C" $25.41 0.00% - 2,920,000 $74,197.20 n.a n.a -5.54% Bank Of Beirut Preferred "D" $26.00 0.00% - 4,000,000 $4,000.00 n.a n.a n.a Bank Of Beirut Preferred "E" $25.50 0.00% - 2,400,000 $61,200.00 n.a n.a 2.00% Byblos Bank "C" $1.72 0.00% 178,080 359,491,317 $618,325.07 7.82 0.85-17.70% Byblos Bank Priority $1.73 1.17% 26,500 206,023,723 $356,421.04 7.86 0.9-17.62% Byblos Bank Preferred Class 2008 $1.50 0.00% 2,598 2,000,000 $203,000.00 n.a n.a -2.40% Byblos Bank Preferred Class 2009 $0.50 0.00% - 2,000,000 $201,000.00 n.a n.a 0.50% Byblos Bank GDR $88.00 0.00% - 1,309,078 $115,198.86 6.07 0.8-16.19% BEMO Bank-Listed shares $5.25 0.00% - 5,400,000 $28,350.00.29 1.26 7.14% BEMO Bank Preferred $99.30 0.00% - 200,000 $19,860.00 n.a n.a -0.70% BLOM Bank GDR $9.43-0.11% 4,327 73,896,0 $696,839.37 6.83 1.28-89.52% BLOM Bank Listed Shares $8.80 0.00% 2,536,440 215,000,000 $1,892,000.00 6.38 1.19-89.52% BLOM Bank Preferred "2004" $.50 0.00% - 7,500,000 $78,750.00 n.a n.a -89.63% BLOM Bank Preferred "2005" $.50 0.00% -,000,000 $5,000.00 n.a n.a -89.68% RYMCO $2.75 0.00% -,400,000 $28,600.00 22.56 1.42-12.70% Holcim Liban $14.95 3.% 2,411 19,516,040 $291,764.80.0 1.39 19.41% Ciment Blancs Bearer $3.15 0.00% - 6,000,000 $18,900.00 11.13 1.86 0.00% Ciment Blancs Nominal $0.50 0.00% - 3,000,000 $1,500.00 1.77 0.30 0.00% Beirut Preferred Fund $4.00 0.00% - 325,756 $33,878.62 n.a n.a n.a GLOBAL DEPOSITORY RECEIPTS Solidere $18.40 1.15% 9,091,750 $167,288.20 13.54 1.66-24.898% Audi $8.44 0.99% 1,567,6 $857,027.49 1.14 0.17-90.301% BLOM $9.45 0.54% 73,896,0 $698,391.19 0.83 0.17-89.260% n.a stands for not applicable Source: Beirut Stock Exchange, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Activity Analysis Previous Last % Change Value Traded 8,255,688.59 90,657,905.05 998.13% Volume Traded 614,388.00,974,231.00 1686.21% Market Cap - BSE 12,254,704,681.00 12,213,926,519.00-0.33% Bank Audi emerged as the largest contributor (70.79%) to the week s traded value with a turnover ratio of 1.75%. Other active stocks include BLOM Bank shares, accounting for 24.67% of total weekly traded value, with a turnover ratio of 0.83%. Lebanese Equities Market Cap - Intl 1,708,609.72 1,722,706.88 0.83% Source: Beirut Stock Exchange, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit The weighted average P/E and P/Bv ratios of the Beirut reversed their upturn last week, reaching.53 and 1.38 respectively, down from.62 and 1.39 during the preceding week. Evolution of Beirut Bourse Comparable Benchmarks 15.622.527 1.385 1.376 5 0 November 5, 20 November 12, 20 P/E P/BV CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 12
LEBANON S MAIN INDICATORS MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS Recap of Lebanon's Major Indicators 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 GDP ($ Million) 19,795 21,465 21,861 22,438 25,047 29,485 33,585 Real GDP Growth Rate 4.14% 7.45% 1.% 0.60% 7.50% 8.50% 9.00% 6.00% GDP Per Capita ($) 5,559 5,949 5,988 6,059.88* 6,677* 7,616.62* 8,131.6* Net Foreign Direct Investment ($ Million) 2,997 1,993 2,624 2,675 2,731 3,606 4,300 FDI/GDP Ratio 15.14% 9.28% 12.00% 11.92%.90% 12.23% 12.80% INDUSTRY Industrial Exports ($ Million) 1,087 1,467 1,667 1,738 2,361 2,994 2,645 2,565 (7) Industrial Exports/Total Exports Ratio 71.33% 83.97% 88.67% 76.13% 83.84% 86.08% 75.92% 85.02% Import of Industrial Machinery ($ Million) 9 142 137 130 163 188 199.13 176.54 (7) Import of Industrial Machinery/Total Imports Ratio 1.52% 1.51% 1.47% 1.38% 1.38% 1.17% 1.23% 1.34% TOURISM Arab Tourists Arrivals 438,203 545,150 451,430 456,889 400,082 549,463 785,985 560,500 (5) U.S. Tourists Arrivals 120,429 152,075 136,907 129,274 121,596 176,647 232,694 116,679 (5) Asia Tourists Arrivals 134,164 173,897 177,809 164,053 137,832 181,006 264,021 312,718 (5) Europe Tourists Arrivals 266,691 338,475 316,083 267,142 277,337 347,495 453,522 235,617 (5) Others Tourists Arrivals 89,153 68,872 57,295 33,659 32,154 43,796 114,859 0,487 (5) Total Number of Tourists 1,015,793 1,278,469 1,139,524 1,062,635 1,017,072 1,332,551 1,851,081 1,326,001 Growth in Tax-Free Spending N.A N.A 2% -15% 17% 56% 13% 23% (7) REAL ESTATE Value of Real Estate Transactions ($ Million) 2,882.5 2,882.9 3,295.8 3,120.4 4,175.0 6,443.7 2,456.5 (1) Number of Real Estate Sales Transactions 48,657 52,700 51,564 51,027 67,689 85,025 86,499.0 Construction Permits (000 sqm) 7,196 7,719 7,928 7,532 7,919 14,281 11,509 11,288 (7) Cement Delivery (000 tons) 2,704 2,729 3,040 3,423 3,945 4,219 4,897 3,529 (6) TRANSPORTATION Beirut Port Activity Freight Activity(000 Tons) 4,767 5,060 4,476 4,226 5,318 5,746 5,769 5,492 (9) Number of Vessels 2,333 2,366 2,229 1,829 2,187 2,055 2,199 1,934 (9) Number of Containers 115,034 137,492 464,976 594,601 947,265 861,931 912,434 805,888 (9) Beirut Airport Activity Number of Passengers (million) 2,718,000 3,200,000 3,177,000 2,739,606 3,408,834 3,869,607 4.74 4.24 (7) FOREIGN TRADE Imports ($ Million) 7,168 9,397 9,340 9,398 11,815 16,137 16,242 13,189 (7) Exports ($ Million) 1,524 1,747 1,880 2,283 2,816 3,478 3,484 3,017 (7) Trade Balance ($ Million) (5,644) (7,650) (7,460) (7,115) (8,999) (12,658) (12,758) (,172) (7) Exports/Imports 21.26% 18.59% 20.13% 24.29% 23.83% 21.55% 21.45% 22.88% BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BOP at BDL and Banks & Financial Inst ($ Million) 3,385 168 747 2,792 2,037 3,460.60 7,899.00 2,753.90 (6) Foreign Assets ($ Billion) 12.18 11.48 11.66 12.97 12.39 19.73 28.30 31.18 (9) PUBLIC FINANCE Government Expenditures ($ Million) 7,027 6,992 6,768 7,880 8,350 9,922 11,388 6,328 (5) Government Revenues ($ Million) 4,415 4,984 4,912 4,853 5,804 7,000 8,428 5,140 (5) Budget Deficit / Surplus ($ Million) (1,719) (817) (543) (1,688) (1,311) (789) (658) (1,189) (5) Budget Primary Deficit / Surplus ($ Million) 1,515 1,851 1,802 1,335 1,787 2,730 3,380 1,187 (5) Total Deficit ($ Million) (2,612) (2,008) (1,856) (3,027) (2,546) (2,921) (2,960) (1,189) (5) Deficit / Total Expenditures Ratio 37.17% 28.71% 27.42% 38.42% 30.49% 29.45% 25.99% 18.78% Deficit / GDP Ratio 13.20% 9.35% 8.61% 13.49%.16%.% 8.81% Debt Service / GDP Ratio 16.33% 12.43%.88% 13.47% 13.08% 12.16% N.A EDL Support / GDP Ratio - - - 4.05% 3.92% 5.57% N.A External Debt ($ Billion) 15.56 18.38 19.13 20.33 21.21 21.15 21.26 20.98 (7) Net Domestic Debt ($ Billion) 15.80 14.60 15.62 17.09 17.81 20.35 22.85 29.87 (7) Net Public Debt ($ Billion) 31.36 32.98 34.76 37.42 39.02 41.50 44.11 44.64 (7) Gross Public Debt/GDP Ratio 168.50% 167.00% 175.70% 179.90% 167.80% 162.50% 152.13% MONETARY AGGREGATES & INFLATION M1 ($ Billion) 1.89 2.01 1.96 2.20 2.36 2.83 3.12 3.36 (8) M2 ($ Billion) 17.40 17.23 16.23 15.57 16.47 24.76 34.21 38.64 (8) M3 ($ Billion) 42.91 47.30 49.38 53.23 59.83 68.66 82.2 89.72 (8) M4 ($ Billion) 46.63 49.63 51.59 56.08 63.56 72.58 87.08 94.94 (8) (M2-M1) ($ Billion) 15.51 15.22 14.27 13.37 14.11 21.93 31.14 35.29 (8) Monetization Level (M2/GDP Ratio) 87.90% 80.27% 74.24% 69.39% 65.76% 85.55% 1.86% N.A Consumer Price Index 136.75 2.48 99.63 7.24 113.59 120.81 125.89 132.41 (7) change in CPI (%) 3.00% 1.70% -2.60% 5.60% 9.30% 6.36% 4.20% 5.05% BANKING SYSTEM Number of Commercial Banks 52 53 54 54 54 53 53 Number of Branches 809 799 825 830 847 860 885 Number of Employees 15,714 16,281 17,480 18,945 --- --- Total Assets ($ Million) 59,895 67,786 70,325 76,179 82,255 94,255 115,250 126,743 (7) Total Deposits ($ Million) 49,362 55,835 58,117 61,541 68,059 78,663 96,821 5,176 (7) Deposits of the Private Sector ($ Million) 48,483 54,853 56,986 60,494 67,288 77,780 95,766 3,853 (7) Deposits of the Public Sector ($ Million) 879 982 1,131 1,047 771 883 1,055 1,323 (7) Loans to the Private Sector ($ Million) 14,929 15,934 16,230 17,201 17,753 21,062 24,259 28,860 (7) Claims on the Public Sector ($ Million) 21,006 24,156 26,696 31,192 32,424 38,314 29,063 29,182 (7) Total Shareholders Equity ($ Million) 4,530 4,941 6,172 7,688 8,555 9,858 N.A Customer Loans/ Deposits 30.24% 28.54% 27.93% 27.95% 26.08% 26.78% 25.06% 27.44% Customer Loans/Total Assets 24.93% 23.51% 23.08% 22.58% 21.58% 22.35% 21.05% 22.77% Dollarization Rate 65.02% 68.78% 71.71% 75.16% 76.46% 68.79% 63.76% 61.78% Net Interest Income ($Million) 1,074.78 1,088.39 1,203.61 1,544.31 1,845.44 2,361.98 2,456.99 Net Fees and Commissions Income ($Million) 260.24 302.82 354.38 401.24 488.85 595.89 666.94 Net Profit - After Tax ($ Million) 448.30 463.42 580.47 753.51 961.99 1,218.85 1,426.52 ROE 11.14%.22%.71%.98% 11.79% 13.20% 13.19% ROA 0.75% 0.68% 0.77% 0.91% 1.02% 1.13% 1.13% Exchange Rate (LBP to USD) 1,507.50 1,507.50 1,507.50 1,507.50 1,507.50 1,507.50 1,507.50 1507.5 * Figures Reflect IMF Estimates (1) As At End of June 2009 (2) As At End of March, 20, (3) As At End of April, 20, (4) As At End of May, 20, (5) As At End of July, 20, (6) As At End of August, 20, (7) As At End of September, 20, (8) As At October 28, 20, (9) As At End of October 20 BDL, ABL, IMF, BILANBANQUES, CREDIT LIBANAIS RESEARCH UNIT 13
LEBANON S RATINGS Republic Of Lebanon Sovereign Ratings Rating Agency Tenor Rating Standard & Poor's Long-term B short-term B Moody's Investors Service Ltd Long-term B1 Outlook Positive Stable Fitch IBCA Ltd Long-term B Stable short-term B Source: Ministry of Finance: Debt & Debt Markets Reports, Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's Lebanese Banks' Latest Ratings Rated Banks Moody's Investors Service Capital Intelligence Long Term Foreign Currency Financial Strength Outlook Long Term Foreign Currency Outlook Bank Audi-Saradar B1 D- Stable B Stable BLOM Bank B1 D- Stable B Stable Credit Libanais - - - B Stable Byblos Bank B1 D- Stable B Stable BBAC - - - B Stable Fransabank - - - B Stable Bank of Beirut B1 D- Stable - - Sources: Moody's Investors Service, Capital Intellgince MOF, MOODY S, CAPITAL INTELLIGENCE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 14
ARAB MARKETS ARAB MARKETS REGIONAL STOCK MARKET INDICES The table on the right hand side sheds the light on the weekly performance of major Arab stock market indices in the region during the week ended November 11, 20: REGIONAL STOCK MARKET INDICES Country Index P revious Last Net Change %Change Lebanon.CLASI 1,249.44 1,244.81 (4.63) -0.37% Bahrain.BAX 1,420.14 1,450.41 30.27 2.13% United Arab Emirates.ADX 2,750.70 2,758.44 7.74 0.28% Saudi Arabia.TASI 6,344.02 6,443.61 99.59 1.5 7% Kuwait.KWSE 7,124.70 6,950.00 (174.70) -2.45% Oman.MSI 6,516.08 6,620.55 4.47 1.6 0% Egypt.CCSI 1,431.78 1,438.75 6.97 0.49% Source: Reuters, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit THE EGYPTIAN STOCK EXCHANGE The Cairo Stock Exchange Index ended the week on a positive note, gaining some 0.49% to close at 1,438.75. Trading activity included 91,833,917 shares valued at LE 716.19 million ($124.55 million). Among the most heavily traded stocks, El Watany Bank of Egypt was up at LE 29.84 ($5.19) followed by Golden Pyramids Plaza which firmed at $4.22 (LE 24.27). On the other hand, Rakta Paper Manufacturing topped the losers list, closing down at LE 13.19 ($2.29), followed by Sharm Dreams Co. for Tourism Investment which settled down at LE 12.75 ($2.22). THE SAUDI STOCK EXCHANGE On a weekly basis, the Tadawul All Shares Index maintained its gaining momentum, closing up by 1.57% at 6,443.61. Trading activity encompassed 762.89 million shares valued at SAR 19.12 billion ($5. billion), with the Saudi stock market capitalization attaining SAR 1,292.05 billion ($344.46 billion) in comparison with SAR 1,267.57 billion ($337.93 billion) a week earlier. Saudi Advanced emerged as the top gainer of the week, up at SAR 13.90 ($3.71), followed by KEC which advanced to SAR 8.35 ($2.23). On the other hand, Anaam Holding topped the losers list, down by 8.50% to SAR 40.90 ($.90), followed by Zamil Industrial which closed lower at SAR 35. ($9.36). THE EGYPTIAN STOCK EXCHANGE Companies Closing Previous TOP FIVE GAINERS % Change Market Cap. Million El Watany Bank of Egypt LE 29.84 LE 29.47 8.35% LE 2,947 Golden Pyramids Plaza $4.22 $4.14 8.09% LE 12,838 National Societe Generale Bank (NSGB) LE 45.27 LE 44.98 7.63% LE 16,594 Suez Canal Bank LE 9.00 LE 8.99 6.14% LE 1,798 Guezira Hotels & Tourism $27.23 $27.22 4.73% LE 466 TOP FIVE LOSERS Rakta Paper Manufacturing LE 13.19 LE 13.20-5.79% LE 396 Sharm Dreams Co. for Tourism Investment LE 12.75 LE 13.04-3.91% LE 587 El Wadi for Exporting Agricultural Products LE 29.26 LE 29.54-3.37% LE 118 Nile Pharmaceuticals LE 54.84 LE 55.41-3.% LE 374 Ceramic & Porcelain LE 5.96 LE 6.00-2.76% LE 302 LE/USD LE 5.7504 Source: Egypt Stock Exchange, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit THE SAUDI STOCK EXCHANGE Companies Closing Previous TOP FIVE GAINERS % Change Market Cap. Million Saudi Advanced SAR 13.90 SAR 12.20 13.93% SAR 600 KEC SAR 8.35 SAR 7.75 7.74% SAR 2,833 SAFCO SAR 156.75 SAR 146.50 7.00% SAR 39,188 AlAbdullatif SAR 33. SAR 31.20 6.09% SAR 2,689 Petrochem SAR 20.55 SAR 19.40 5.93% SAR 9,864 TOP FIVE LOSERS Anaam Holding SAR 40.90 SAR 44.70-8.50% SAR 446 Zamil Industrial SAR 35. SAR 37.90-7.39% SAR 2,6 AL Babtain SAR 27.70 SAR 29.70-6.73% SAR 1,122 Al-Ahlia SAR 50.00 SAR 53.50-6.54% SAR 500 SABB SAR 40.00 SAR 41.60-3.85% SAR 30,000 USD/SR $0.2666 Source: Saudi Stock Exchange, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Arab Markets REUTERS, EGYPT AND SAUDI ARABIA STOCK EXCHANGES 15