REPRINTED FROM POINT OF VIEW JUNE 2017 Asset Management LOW VOLATILITY STRATEGIES: DEFYING ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT RISK AND RETURN TAKE A LOOK AT YOUR STOCK ALLOCATION. A GOOD DOSE OF LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY MIGHT SURPRISE YOU. Low-volatility equity strategies have defied traditional assumptions about how risk and return pair up, based on our historical research. This is what makes low volatility such a valuable factor. Most discussions of low volatility strategies have tended to focus on the potential to outperform cap-weighted benchmarks by overweighting low volatility stocks. While this is clearly interesting and merits attention, it ignores perhaps the most important feature of a low volatility strategy the ability to potentially improve the risk-return profile of a portfolio. MATT PERON Managing Director of Global Equity A WIDE RANGE OF RISK Historical patterns clearly indicate that volatility is far from uniform across equities. In Exhibit 1, we divided developed-market equities into five portfolios (quintiles from lowest volatility to highest) based on historical volatility. The resulting portfolios demonstrate a range of volatility, indicating that stocks identified as low volatility tend to be significantly less volatile in the future than stocks identified as high volatility. BEN GOETSCH, CFA Equity Strategist 1
Rolling 5-Year Volatility 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EXHIBIT 1: A WIDE DIFFERENCE: ROLLING 5-YEAR VOLATILITY Global developed equities divided into quintiles of volatility levels show that there is potential to create an equity portfolio with significant lower risk than the broader market. 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q1 (High Vol) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 (Low Vol) Low volatility equity strategies have defied traditional assumptions about risk and return, based on our research. The lowest quintile of volatility has often outperformed the highest quintile over the past 15 years. These findings allow investors to use low volatility strategies to adjust risk and reward. SOURCE: Northern Trust Quantitative Research. Portfolios constructed by ranking the MSCI World universe monthly on Barra volatility exposure and using that ranking to construct equally weighted quintiles. PERFORMANCE: LOW VOLATILITY STACKS UP WELL HISTORICALLY If traditional financial theory holds true, we should assume that portfolios with significantly different levels of risk should also demonstrate significantly different levels of return. Specifically, higher volatility portfolios should be rewarded with higher levels of return, and lower volatility portfolios should demonstrate commensurately lower returns. Exhibit 2 clearly indicates that has not been the case. Using only the highest quintile and lowest quintile for clarity, we calculated the excess returns relative to the broader market. Not only do the lowest volatility stocks tend to keep up with the broader market, but they actually outperform higher volatility stocks over nearly every 5-year period we examined. 2
Rolling 5-Year Excess Return 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EXHIBIT 2: LOW VOL HISTORICALLY OUTPERFORMED HIGH VOL Lower volatility stocks (lowest quintile) have historically had higher returns than higher volatility stocks (top quintile shown) over most of the examined periods. 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Our research and experience suggest that low volatility strategies that are reasonably well diversified can deliver 20% to 30% less volatility versus the broader market. Q1 Q5 SOURCE: Northern Trust Quantitative Research. Portfolios constructed by ranking the MSCI World Index universe monthly on Barra volatility exposure and using that ranking to construct equally weighted quintiles. PUT LOW VOLATILITY TO USE: FINE-TUNING THE RISK AND REWARD This finding can have broad implications, particularly in an environment where return expectations across asset classes are at historically low levels. Our research and experience suggest that low volatility strategies that are reasonably well diversified can deliver 20% to 30% less volatility versus the broader market. Even if a low volatility portfolio could simply match the performance of the broader market, investors can expand their equity allocations and increase return potential without increasing portfolio volatility. To illustrate, in Exhibit 3, we use a sample portfolio allocated 60% to equities and 40% to bonds. We can replace the equity allocation with a low volatility strategy that performs in line with the cap-weighted benchmark with 20% less volatility, on the low end of the expected volatility reduction. If we increase the low volatility equity allocation to 75%, we can achieve improved historical return with less volatility. Further, more equity can mean more return potential going forward. 3
EXHIBIT 3: PORTFOLIO TUNE-UP WITH LOW VOLATILITY STRATEGY With low volatility equity, you can potentially stretch performance while staying in your risk budget. In this illustration, we took a 60% stock/40% bond portfolio, replaced the equity allocation with low volatility equity (20% less volatility, same 5.8% return as global equity) and increased the equity allocation to 75%. The result: higher return, lower risk and an improved Sharpe ratio. 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 9.80% 8.00% 9.60% 6.00% 4.00% 4.30% 4.30% 4.90% 2.00% 0.00% 60% Global Equity/40% Global Bond 60% Low Volatility Equity/40% Global Bond Return Volatility 75% Low Volatility Equity/25% Global Bond SOURCE: For illustrative purposes only. Return expectations derived from Northern Trust s 2016 Capital Markets Assumptions and noted assumptions regarding the performance of low volatility strategies relative to the broader market. Global Equity is the MSCI ACWI Index and Global Bond is the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index. Risk calculations derived from historical volatility and covariance data from these two benchmarks from Jan 2001 Feb 2017, with the risk of the low volatility strategy assumed to be 20% less than the risk of the cap-weighted equity index. The return and volatility, respectively, of the strategies are: Global Equity: 5.8%, 15.8%; Global Bond: 2.1%, 5.8%; Low Volatility Equity: 5.8%, 12.7%. For investors grappling with the potential for low returns in the intermediate-term, low volatility strategies provide an interesting tool to potentially improve performance within their existing risk budgets. Not only do these strategies present the opportunity for outperformance within equity allocations, but their lower risk profile allows for potential shifts in asset allocation to boost returns without increasing overall portfolio volatility. Further, while we expect low volatility strategies to deliver a premium relative to the market over time, as these strategies have done historically, investors can still benefit from the improved risk/return tradeoff. LEARN MORE Factor-Based Investing: Put Risk to Work in Your Favor Global Low Volatility: Benefiting From an Actively Designed Approach 4
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