OCBC Commodity Outlook 2H17 Barnabas Gan Economist Global Treasury Research & Strategy July 2017 1
Crude Oil Still in choppy waters 2
Executive Summary It is likely going to be a see-saw year for energy prices. Of late, both the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent fell to its lowest since Aug 2016, before rallying higher into July on renewed demand expectations. Note that US refinery utilisation rates rose rapidly into its driving season period, coupled with robust energy import prints from Asia. Other indicators continue to suggest higher oil prices into end-year. Chiefly, crude oil forward curves, owing to the recent strength, shifted higher while maintaining its contango pattern. CFTC speculative net-long positions also gained for its second straight week in early July. Lastly, Bloomberg-calculated bullish reading for crude oil has edged up considerably to 50% in early July, up from 18.4% in February. Still, supply uncertainties may continue to leave oil prices to behave in a choppy fashion into 2H17. In a nutshell, there is still an observable supply glut to-date, led by relatively strong US oil production and recent rise in OPEC oil supplies into May 2017. Moreover, market-watchers suspicion over the efficacy of OPEC-led production cuts, now that oil production gains from Libya and Nigeria have overshadowed the cuts by the other members. Future production trend continue to appear hazy as Russian officials reportedly refused to consider lower production, amid possible reluctance for Nigeria and Libya to consider production caps into the August. We maintain our WTI and Brent outlook at $55/bbl and $57/bbl, respectively. Our bullish call is underpinned on a further rebalancing scenario into year-end. Importantly, oil price still remain below OPEC s comfort level (perceived at $50/bbl). Healthy energy demand into 2017 should be predicated by the ongoing growth outlook to-date. 3
Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Recent crude oil weakness had effectively erased the gains seen in late 2017 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Still finding a new bottom? Prices remain around its $45/bbl handle Brent-WTI Spread (RHS) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 WTI Brent WTI-Brent Gap (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, OCBC 4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 mbpd Oversupply concerns continue to plague prices lower 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 84 82 80 Global oil production and demand points to a sustained glut Global Oil Product Demand Global Oil Product Supply Source: Bloomberg, OCBC 5
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 1000 barrels/day US shale oil production rises above its 5.5mbpd handle, accounting for 59% of total US production 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 US shale oil production rises further into mid- 2017 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Bakken Eagle Ford Niobrara Permian YOY (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, OCBC 6
Jan-05 Oct-05 Jul-06 Apr-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Apr-13 Jan-14 Oct-14 Jul-15 Apr-16 Jan-17 Oct-17 Jul-18 Still, the climb in US oil production could fizzle as oil prices remain low 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 US oil production lags prices by approx 15 months - US production to fall going forward? 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% WTI (Lead 15 mths) US oil production YOY (3mma) Source: US EIA, Bloomberg, OCBC 7
Feb-01 Dec-01 Oct-02 Aug-03 Jun-04 Apr-05 Feb-06 Dec-06 Oct-07 Aug-08 Jun-09 Apr-10 Feb-11 Dec-11 Oct-12 Aug-13 Jun-14 Apr-15 Feb-16 mbpd Market s initial cheer over OPEC s production cut faded into May as production climbed further 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 OPEC's production climbed into May, adding to the global glut 44% 43% 42% 41% 40% 39% 38% 37% 36% 35% 1 OPEC production does not include NGLs and condensates OPEC Crude Supply Share of global production 8
Gains in OPEC production is led by higher prints in Libya and Nigeria thousand barrels per day Reference Production Levels Targeted production level Production (Dec 2016) Production (Jan 2017) Production (Feb 2017) Production (Mar 2017) Production (Apr 2017) Production (May 2017) a b c d e f g g Algeria 1,089 1,039 1,149 1,091 1,084 1,085 1,075 1,069 Angola 1,751 1,673 1,639 1,615 1,649 1,652 1,651 1,593 Ecuador 548 522 544 534 535 531 528 528 Gabon 202 193 209 203 198 202 205 204 Iran 3,975 3,797 4,010 3,920 3,870 3,891 3,862 3,795 Iraq 4,561 4,351 4,830 4,630 4,566 4,568 4,531 4,424 Kuwait 2,838 2,707 2,844 2,710 2,705 2,700 2,710 2,715 Libya** 528-610 680 681 612 552 730 Nigeria** 1,390-1,370 1,533 1,426 1,210 1,404 1,640 Qatar 648 618 611 615 545 621 619 615 Saudi Arabia 10,544 10,058 10,465 9,748 10,011 9,900 9,946 9,880 UAE 3,013 2,874 3,220 3,060 2,995 2,973 2,988 2,981 Venezuela 2,067 1,972 2,270 2,250 2,248 2,235 2,194 2,189 Total 33,154 29,804 33,771 32,589 32,513 32,180 32,265 32,363 Source: OPEC, Bloomberg, OCBC 9
Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 $/bbl Thousands Unwinding of bullish positions into 2H17 450 CFTC speculative net-long positions (Crude Oil) 120 350 100 250 150 80 50 60-50 -150 40-250 20 Net non-commercial positions WTI (RHS) Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, OCBC 10
08/2017 11/2017 02/2018 05/2018 08/2018 11/2018 02/2019 05/2019 08/2019 11/2019 02/2020 05/2020 08/2020 11/2020 02/2021 05/2021 08/2021 11/2021 02/2022 05/2022 08/2022 11/2022 12/2023 06/2025 Jan-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Apr-17 May-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 $/bbl Bullish sentiment (%) More signs of bullish sentiment in recent weeks 57 WTI forward curves turned steeper into July 80 Bloomberg Bullish Sentiment (Crude Oil) 55 70 53 60 51 50 49 40 47 30 45 20 43 10 41 0 Current (July 2017) One-month ago Source: Bloomberg, OCBC 11
Capex spending could rise on higher oil prices Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2014 2015 2016 2017^ 2018^ Exxon Mobil Corp 339,659.2 32,952 26,490 16,163 17,909 20,817 Chevron Corp 195,215.6 35,407 29,504 18,109 18,053 16,269 BHP Billiton Ltd 94,806.3 15,512 12,763 7,711 4,925 5,650 Occidental Petroleum Corp 44,934.5 8,930 5,381 4,761 3,410 3,853 Statoil ASA 54,199.8 19,506 15,485 12,191 11,124 11,576 ConocoPhillips 53,492.4 17,085 10,050 4,869 4,950 5,698 EOG Resources Inc 51,734.8 8,247 5,013 2,583 3,952 4,984 Anadarko Petroleum Corp 24,425.2 9,508 6,067 3,505 4,879 5,240 Pioneer Natural Resources Co 26,954.8 3,576 2,393 2,060 2,648 3,104 Apache Corp 17,922.4 11,378 4,808 1,949 3,047 3,428 Devon Energy Corp 15,629.1 13,450 6,415 3,971 2,910 3,368 Repsol SA 23,014.7 3,462 3,320 2,217 3,989 4,438 Hess Corp 13,498.3 5,214 4,321 2,251 2,267 2,491 Continental Resources Inc/OK 11,544.6 4,717 3,080 1,165 1,943 2,453 Concho Resources Inc 18,043.4 2,589 2,511 2,458 1,726 2,085 EQT Corp 10,410.7 2,451 2,434 2,591 1,876 3,205 Marathon Oil Corp 9,791.9 5,160 3,476 1,245 2,339 2,779 Cabot Oil & Gas Corp 11,484.5 1,480 956 375 807 1,050 Range Resources Corp 5,390.0 1,212 1,035 469 1,116 1,294 Diamondback Energy Inc 8,638.2 1,448 902 1,190 899 1,160 Murphy Oil Corp 4,244.6 3,679 2,550 927 895 1,161 Energen Corp 4,682.5 1,264 1,154 447 917 889 CONSOL Energy Inc 3,434.6 1,493 983 227 621 714 RSP Permian Inc 5,159.1 816 873 963 663 887 WPX Energy Inc 3,813.0 1,807 1,124 578 959 1,166 Chesapeake Energy Corp 4,231.6 6,618 3,771 2,120 2,150 2,370 Whiting Petroleum Corp 1,893.3 2,968 2,497 553 1,032 1,152 SM Energy Co 1,761.2 2,519 1,502 2,814 863 1,225 Oasis Petroleum Inc 1,811.6 1,401 849 1,208 583 739 Denbury Resources Inc 617.4 1,079 562 253 291 395 Total Capital Expenditure 1,062,439.4 226,929.2 162,268.1 101,921.7 103,742.4 115,639.6 % Change -28.5% -37.2% 1.8% 11.5% ^ Bloomberg collated estimates Source: Bloomberg, OCBC 12
Mar-07 Dec-07 Sep-08 Jun-09 Mar-10 Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 Dec-13 Sep-14 Jun-15 Mar-16 Dec-16 Sep-17 Jun-18 USD bn %/bbl US oil companies slated to spend more on capex this year, suggesting bullish outlook till end-year 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Forecast 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Total Capex WTI (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Asia includes China, India, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan Malaysia, S. Korea, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam 13
(%) US driving season to lift oil demand further 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 US refinery utilisation rates edged higher ahead of driving season Refinery Maintenance Season 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 Week Highest (2011-2016) Driving Season Average(2011-2016) 2017 Refinery Maintenance Season Lowest(2011-2016) Source: Bloomberg, OCBC 14
Oct-06 May-07 Dec-07 Jul-08 Feb-09 Sep-09 Apr-10 Nov-10 Jun-11 Jan-12 Aug-12 Mar-13 Oct-13 May-14 Dec-14 Jul-15 Feb-16 Sep-16 Apr-17 Overall global demand continue to stay robust, especially seen in China and EU28 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Oil import demand from key destination countries continue to point north (3mma) US China India EU28 Source: Bloomberg, OCBC 15
Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 million barrels Should demand continue to grow amid tame supply growth, inventory overhang may tighten 3100 3080 3060 3040 3020 3000 2980 2960 2940 2920 2900 OECD commercial oil inventories projected to fall further into the year Forecast Source: Bloomberg, OCBC 16
Gold: Yield-chasing behavior dominates 17
Executive Summary After a strong bullish run to near its $1,300/oz handle, gold prices fell to its lowest since mid-march to-date. The fall came just after June s FOMC meeting which revealed policy-makers outlook for one more rate hike into the second half of 2017. Furthermore, Fed chair Yellen also revealed plans to initiate a balance sheet reduction before the year is up. For more details on the balance sheet reduction, refer to the FOMC addendum. The yellow metal has also fallen sharply in the past two weeks, given yield-chasing behavior amid risk appetite following the stark rise in government yields. Yield curves across the globe, especially seen in US and Europe, have steepened considerably. The steepening of the yield curves coincided with overall rising government bond yields as well, suggesting investors concern over future central banks move away from extremely easy policies. In the short-term, we foresee gold s immediate support at $1,200/oz, and if it breaks, to touch $1,145/oz should risk appetite continue to gain traction. However, some shortterm retracement from the current bond rout may be seen especially if geopolitical concerns starts to dominate again amid policy-makers possible attempt to talk-down its perceived hawkish tone. We maintain our gold outlook at $1,200/oz at year-end. Given that gold prices are already nearing our year-end outlook, we opine that some short-term upside risk to gold prices may materialise especially if risk appetite fizzles into 3Q17. Still, the central banks move away from their current ultra-loose monetary policy, amid the FOMC s balance sheet reduction, should tune gold back to $1,200/oz by year-end. 18
01-Jan-17 15-Jan-17 29-Jan-17 12-Feb-17 26-Feb-17 12-Mar-17 26-Mar-17 09-Apr-17 23-Apr-17 07-May-17 21-May-17 04-Jun-17 18-Jun-17 02-Jul-17 $/oz Millions Global gold ETF holdings slowed into July, gold prices fell to its lowest since March- 2017 Gold ETF accumulation slowed into mid-june, 62 gold rally fizzles 1325 1275 60 1225 59 58 1175 57 1125 56 61 Total Known ETF Holdings (RHS) Gold Futures Source: Bloomberg, OCBC 19
-12.3 percentage (%) -0.3-0.9-0.7 9.5 8.2 2.6 0.4 4.8 5.9 1.5 6.5 2.9 9.7 8.3 8.6 7.9 21.7 Risk appetite was robust into 2Q17, dulling gold s demand as a safe haven asset Gold prices fell as investors turned to equities 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 S&P Nikkei 225 EURO STOXX S&P Asia 50 CME Shanghai Stock Exchange Gold % Chg 2016 1H17 2Q/1Q17 Source: Bloomberg, OCBC 20
Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Traditional dollar-gold correlation broke into July, suggesting other underlying key reasons Dollar strength traditionally drags gold prices 60% Weaker Dollar 40% 20% 0% -20% Stronger Dollar -40% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Gold Futures YOY DXY YOY (RHS - Inversed) Source: Bloomberg, OCBC 21
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 First underlying reason is likely the improvement in risk appetite: VIX fell to its lowest since 1993 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 VIX, or better known as the fear index, fell in tandem with gold prices 35 30 25 20 15 10 Gold Futures $/oz VIX Absolute (2m lead, 3mma, RHS) Source: Bloomberg, OCBC 22
Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 basis points Yield-chasing behavior likely to have contributed to lower gold prices as well 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 Yield spread steepens: Yield-chasing behavior depresses gold prices 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Gold Futures $/oz US 2-10 yield spread (Inversed - RHS) Source: Bloomberg, OCBC 23
Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 % Reflation concern seen in early 2017 eased into 2Q17 as oil prices fell 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0-0.1-0.2 Little demand for gold as an inflation as 'reflation risk' fizzles into June -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% US 10Y TIPS Gold Futures YOY (RHS-Inversed) Source: Bloomberg, OCBC 24
The US Federal Reserve is slated to hike interest rates by three times in 2017 3.0% Fed Funds Rate Outlook into 2019 2.75% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.75% A total of three hikes are expected in 2017 1.50% 1.50% 1.25% 1.00% 2.25% 0.5% 0.0% 2016 1Q 2017 2Q 2017 3Q 2017 4Q 2017 2018 2019 Source: Bloomberg, OCBC 25
Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Calling bluff? Fed fund futures are still starkly lower vs the FOMC median dot plot 3.4 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.4 Market is still underpricing the Fed fund rate hike into 2019 1.50 2.25 3.00 Fed Fund Futures (July 2017) Median Dot Plot (June FOMC) Fed Fund Futures (6M Ago) Source: Bloomberg, OCBC 26
Geopolitical concerns remain on the cards Despite the relatively rosier economic environment seen in 1H17, uncertainties are still present as we step into 2H17. As written in our OCBC Global Outlook 2H17, prevailing risks could still materialise from the German elections, concerns about Italy s banking system, as well as the ongoing Brexit negotiations amid a weakened PM May administration. Elsewhere, concerns could also be seen from some tapering of risk-taking behaviour especially if central banks around the world start to pull back monetary stimulus. In a nutshell, should the USD starts to base-build and gain traction, capital inflows into EM, including Asia, could falter going ahead, especially if economic surprises fail to sustain and excite on the upside. 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Angela Merkel's party continue to dominate election polls CDU/CSU SPD FDP Linke AfD Grune Sonstige Mar-17 Previous Poll Source: Bloomberg, ARD-DeutschlandTREND, Google Images, OCBC 27
tons tons kilograms (thousand) kilograms (hundreds) Physical demand looking strong, though higher Indian gold tax could taper demand into 2H17 India gold imports fared better in 2017 given low base seen in 2016 Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 971 1,071 975 835 787 955 585 +119.7 yoy 209 458 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 5M16 5M17 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 119 431 834 1,497 1,096 993 870 3,649-8.0% yoy 3,358 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 5M16 5M17 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Left Axis Right Axis Left Axis Right Axis Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Bank 28
Crude Palm Oil: At the whims of Mother Nature 29
Executive Summary The seasonal higher palm oil demand during the Ramadan celebration failed to lift palm oil prices significantly. Crude palm oil futures remained below its MYR2,600/MT todate, after falling to its lowest (MYR2,432/MT) in mid-june, lowest since May 2016. In fact, Malaysia s palm oil exports did rise by a whopping 17.4% in May, led by higher demand from Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Egypt. However, owing to the low production base year seen in 2016, the ballooning supplies into the first six months of this year had left prices starkly lower. Importantly, palm oil production in Asia (Asia commands approximately 90% of global palm oil supplies) should point higher, led by Indonesia (upside risk to official outlook of 32 33 million tons) and Malaysia (OCBC outlook for Malaysia CPO production to grow 15% in 2017). Note, production is slated to grow further into August on seasonal pattern. Low oil prices had also contributed to the rather lackluster performance of CPO. Palm oil is also a input product for biofuel, a viable alternative to the very cheap gasoline prices to-date. Chiefly, oil prices are estimated to be over 30% cheaper compared to unrefined palm oil, suggesting that palm oil as a biofuel remains overly expensive. Coupled with the sustained low prices seen in alternative vegetable oils (rapeseed, soybean), we had previously downgraded our crude palm oil outlook to MYR2,250/MT in late June. Our bearish call is largely underpinned by the rising CPO supplies into end-year, amid lower oil and alternative vegetable oil prices. Still, the caveat to our outlook is predicated by a low probability event for another El Nino phenomenon to occur into end- 2017. 30
Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 ('000) tons Malaysia s palm oil production gained rapidly as weather conditions improve 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Malaysia CPO production is slated to grow further on seasonal pattern Malaysia CPO Production Projected Production Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Bank 31
('000) tons Malaysia s total CPO production will likely exceed MPOB s target of 19.4 million tons 20,500 20,000 19,500 19,000 18,500 18,000 17,500 17,000 16,500 16,000 15,500 Looking for a bumper crop this year 19,667 19,962 19,916 19,216 18,912 18,785 17,565 17,319 16,994 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Malaysia Palm Oil Production (Yearly) Yearly Growth (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, MPOB, OCBC Bank 32
Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 year-on-year change (%) Malaysia s palm oil exports declined into 2Q17, after a strong 1Q17 performance 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Malaysia palm oil shipments growth declined into May 2017 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Intertek Shipment y/y (3mma) CPO YOY (RHS) Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, OCBC Bank 33
thousand tons 189.7 404.6 325.8 327.4 251.2 605.2 623.0 574.3 511.4 948.5 Although China imports rose, other key destinations saw markedly lower palm oil imports Malaysia's key export destination imported less palm oil into 1Q17 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 India EU China Netherlands Turkey Total 5M16 Total 5M17 Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, OCBC Bank 34
Apr-95 Aug-96 Dec-97 Apr-99 Aug-00 Dec-01 Apr-03 Aug-04 Dec-05 Apr-07 Aug-08 Dec-09 Apr-11 Aug-12 Dec-13 Apr-15 Aug-16 La Nina MYR/MT El Nino Weather conditions improves, with palm oil futures correcting lower into 2Q17 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Palm oil prices appear to have peaked ONI > 1.5 = Strong El Nino ONI < 1.5 = Strong La Nina 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 -1.5-2 ONI Index (RHS) Palm Oil Futures (lag 12 months) Source: NOAA, Bloomberg, OCBC Bank 35
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 USD/MT Falling crude oil prices left biofuel exceedingly expensive! 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Palm oil turned more costly versus gas oil given the oil slump 0 CPO is 30% more expensive than gasoil Crude palm oil Gas Oil Futures Source: NOAA, Bloomberg, OCBC Bank 36
Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 million metric tons Alternative vegetable oil, especially soybean, may continue to stay affordable as supplies climb 350 330 310 290 270 250 230 Global soybean production continued to climb into 2017 Global Soybean Production Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Bank 37
OCBC Commodities Price Outlook As of July 12, 2017 Energy Spot 3y AVG Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2F Q3F Q4F WTI ($/bbl) 47.5 95.1 33.6 45.6 44.9 49.3 51.8 48.2 51.7 55.0 Brent ($/bbl) 50.4 106.7 35.2 47.0 47.0 51.1 54.6 50.8 54.0 57.0 Gasoline ($/gallon) 1.55 2.80 1.18 1.54 1.40 1.48 1.58 1.58 1.78 1.72 Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) 3.28 3.61 1.98 2.25 2.79 3.18 3.06 3.14 2.87 2.75 Precious Metals Gold ($/oz) 1,220 1,450 1,185 1,260 1,334 1,217 1,221 1,259 1,240 1,200 Silver ($/oz) 16.2 24.7 14.9 16.8 19.6 17.1 17.5 17.2 17.2 16.8 Platinum ($/oz) 913 1,477 919 1,007 1,091 944 983 942 992 976 Palladium ($/oz) 794 725 526 569 680 684 768 815 816 800 Base Metals Copper ($/MT) 5,501 7,378 4,669 4,728 4,793 5,291 5,855 5,692 5,625 5,500 Tin ($/MT) 19,732 21,755 15,465 16,912 18,592 20,777 20,012 19,906 20,089 18,966 Nickel ($/MT) 9,072 16,496 8,514 8,834 10,271 10,796 10,277 9,214 9,375 9,483 Zinc ($/MT) 2,600 2,023 1,684 1,927 2,257 2,527 2,789 2,604 2,616 2,619 Aluminum ($/MT) 1,865 1,945 1,515 1,583 1,633 1,709 1,858 1,913 1,907 1,833 Asian Commodities Crude Palm Oil (MYR/MT) 2,850 2,592 2,467 2,597 2,629 2,933 2,938 2,545 2,397 2,250 Source: Historical Data - Bloomberg Forecasts - OCBC Bank Note: Data reflects average price 2016 2017 38
Thank You 39
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