Stocks on the move Scrip I-Direct Code Action Target Stoploss Cummins India CUMIND Buy in the range of 890.00-905.00 1150.00 825.00 Siemens SIEMEN Buy in the range of 1330.00-1345.00 1490.00 1275.00 Time Frame: 3 Months June 19, 2015
Cummins Deal Team India (CUMIND): At Your Faster Service retracement signals maturity of consolidation CMP: 910.00 Buying range: 890-905 Target: 1150.00 Stop loss: 825.00 The stock looks poised to break out of six month long consolidation providing fresh entry opportunity for investors Daily Bar Chart We expect prices to break out of medium term consolidation and lead towards 1150 levels Price parity @ 1150 The revival in sentiments was exhibited by a faster retracement of 12 week decline during last week of May 2015 which signalled that consolidation is approaching its maturity. The stock stood firm during recent down turn in the markets, as it held its support of 830 showcasing resilience. We expect stock to out perform over medium term given robust price structure The entire six month long consolidation is anchored at the 38.2% retracement of August 2014 January 2015 rally ( 580-960) placed at 830 levels which also coincide with long term 200-day EMA Post an impending break out, we expect the subsequent thrust to lead stock towards 1150, being equality with preceding up move (645-960=315 + 830=1145) 580 645 960 200-day EMA 38.2% retracement @ 830 Faster retracement of fall MACD rising above its signal line is a sign ofreturnofpositive momentum in the stock The weekly MACD which gauge the medium term momentum is seen rising above its signal line and favours the positive bias in the stock Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research *Call has been initiated in I-Click to Gain on June 18, 2015 at 15:20 2
Deal Team At Your Service Siemens (SIEMEN): Bullish Pennant breakout signals a fresh uptrend CMP: 1364.00 Buying range: 1330-1345 Target: 1490.00 Stop loss: 1275.00 The share price of Siemens has registered a breakout from a bullish Pennant formation. A Pennant formation is a bullish continuation pattern comprising of narrow price action between two converging trend lines which h marks a temporary pause within an uptrend as bulls take a breather after a strong advance and gather steam before embarking upon the next upmove, thus offering fresh entry opportunity to ride the ongoing uptrend from a medium term perspective The retreat in price from life-time high of 1500 saw the stock find decent buying support near the 38.2% retracement of the preceding rally ( 795-1500) placed around 1230 levels which also confluence with the 21 weeks EMA which has acted as strong support during the entire corrective decline Considering the overall positive price structure, we believe the stock offers a good reward/risk set-up to ride the next up move. We expect the stock to head towards 1490 levels in the medium term being the price parity with the previous up move from 1226 to 1417 as projected from the recent trough of 1280 Weekly 14 period s RSI is seen bouncing back after taking support near its previous low thus supports the positive trend in price Weekly Bar Chart The share price has given a bullish Pennant breakout signalling a resumption of the next up leg within the 1500 Price Pi parity with ihthe larger bull trend and offers fresh entry opportunity to ride previous up move the next up move 795 1226 21 Weeks EMA RSI in seen bouncing back after taking support near its previous low thus validates positive trend in price Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research *Call has been initiated in I-Click to Gain on June 18, 2015 at 14:05 3
Strategy Follow up Rec. Date Scrip Name Rec Price Target Stoploss %P/L Comment 12-Jan-15 Bosch 19,960.00 23,940.00 17,700.0 20.0 Target achieved 12-Jan-15 Apollo Tyre 221.00 265.00 205.0 11.0 Booked profit at 245.40 12-Jan-15 Gulf Oil 518.00 615.00 464.0 8.0 Booked profit at 560.00 12-Feb-15 Oberoi Realty 274.00 333.00 254.0 22.0 Target Achieved 12-Feb-15 Britannia 1,935.00 2,250.00 1,790.0 16.0 Target achieved 12-Feb-15 15 DCB Bank 112.00 135.00 103.00 12.0 Booked profit at 125.5050 12-Feb-15 TV Today 238.00 285.00 216.0 10.0 Booked profit at 261 3-Mar-15 United Spirit 3,500.00 4,030.00 3,240.0 15.0 Target Achieved 3-Mar-15 M&M Financial 260.00 310.00 242.0 0.8 Closed at cost 3-Mar-15 Ashika Buildcon 179.00 210.00 169.0-5.5 Stoploss Triggered 3-Mar-15 Karur Vysaya 585.00 685.00 548.0-6.0 Stoploss Triggered 8-Apr-15 HSIL 442.00 525.00 403.00-1.1 1 Exit at 437.00 8-Apr-15 United Spirit 3,930.00 4,450.00 3,630.0-8.0 Stoploss Triggered 8-Apr-15 NBCC 1,000.00 1,150.00 920.0-8.0 Stoploss Triggered 19-May-15 Cadila Healthcare 1,720.00 1,995.00 1,595.0 5.0 Booked 50% profit at 1806.00 19-May-15 Union Bank of india 160.00 185.00 148.0 7.0 Booked profit at 170.60 19-May-15 Apcotex Industries 510.00 615.00 458.0-10.0 Stoploss Triggered 29-May-15 HPCL 664.00 780.0000 608.00 70 7.0 Booked50% profitat709 11-Jun-15 KEC 126.00 155.00 109.0 10.0 Booked 50% profit at 138.50 11-Jun-15 Bata India 995.00 1,170.00 920.0 Open 4
Product Deal Team highlights At Your Service The key objective of this product is to provide multiple actionable stock ideas providing decent return potential from a medium term perspective. The report would highlight interesting chart patterns using various technical parameters. Consequently, we would formulate requisite trading strategies to ride the possible future price action Return objective 10% to 20% Time horizon 3 months Frequency of report Based on opportunity and suitable risk/reward ratio Research Analysts Dharmesh Shah Nitin Kunte, CMT Dipesh Dagha Pabitro Mukherjee Vinayak Parmar dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com nitin.kunte@icicisecurities.com dipesh.dagha@icicisecurities.com pabitro.mukherjee@icicisecurities.com vinayak.parmar@icicisecurities.com com 5
Notes It is recommended to enter in a staggered manner within the prescribed range provided in the report Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis. The recommendations are valid for three to six months and in case we intend to carry forward the position, it will be communicated through separate mail. Trading portfolio allocation It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products Please avoid allocating the entire e trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation For example: The Daily Calls product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation 6
Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation Product Allocations Product wise Max allocation in allocation 1 Stock Number of Calls Return Objective Frontline Stocks Mid Cap Stocks Duration Daily Calls 8% 2-3% 3-4 Stocks 0.5-1% 2-3% Intraday Short term Delivery 6% 3-5% 7-10 Per Months 4-5% 7-10% Opportunity Based Weekly Calls 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Weekly Technicals 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Monthly Call 15% 5% 2-3 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Monthly Technical 15% 2-4% 5-8 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Techno Funda 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 6 Months Technnical Breakout 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 3-6 Months Cash 10% - 100% 7
Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 research@icicidirect.com 8
Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries bidi i engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. ( associates ), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Nonrated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. 9
Disclaimer ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged g in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report. 10