May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 August 5, 2016 COMPANY RESULTS REPORT REVIEW Nifty: 8,683; Sensex: 28,078 CMP Target Price Rs840 Rs1,020 Potential Upside/Downside +21% Key Stock Data Sector Bloomberg / Reuters Relative to Sensex Source: Capitaline Capital Goods KKC IN /CUMM.BO Shares o/s (mn) 277 Market cap. 232,722 Market cap. (US$ mn) 3,482 3-m daily average vol. 30,074 Price Performance 52-week high/low Rs1,247/747-1m -3m -12m Absolute (%) (1) (2) (18) Rel to Sensex (%) (3) (12) (16) Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 51.00 FIIs/NRIs/OCBs/GDR 16.73 MFs/Banks/FIs 19.36 Govt. Holding 0.04 Non Promoter Corporate 3.15 Public & Others 9.73 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 KKC Sensex Cummins India Sweetens the pot! Summary Upgrade to BUY Subdued exports might have marred the show. Yet Cummins India (KKC IN) product profile acts as insurance for critical applications like data storage, real estate and healthcare. The outlook here is stronger. True, outlook on exports is bleak. And that casts a cloud. Yet we remind that will not be forever. Given superior product profiles be it Q60 engines or be it dual fuel engine for DEMUs, the pricing power and cost efficiency we reiterate will keep the enviable RoE intact. We upgrade the stock to BUY from our earlier ACCUMULATE. Result highlights and Investment rationale Subdued exports mar the show: KKC IN reported a fall of 4% YoY in Net Sales to Rs.12.5bn. This was led by depressing exports. They are down by 22% YoY. True, domestic revenue is up 9% YoY. And the guidance can be met with 10%+. However, on a conservative side, we forecast flat growth in exports and 10%+ in domestic. Company laments the popular myths like excess power supply and lower power demand does not push the needle. We could not agree more. After all, KKC IN product profile acts as insurance for critical applications like data storage, real estate and healthcare. Thereby, the demand is structural. Exports outlook, however, is bleak. And that casts a cloud. And eventually, it all fell on EBITDA: Though contribution margins sequentially is down by 2ppt at 36%. Yet we remain bullish on domestic product profile. True, slump in exports, typically LHP products, also led to change in the current mix. However, we don t see a radical shift. The EBIDA, thereby, is down by 7% YoY at Rs.2.0bn. Also, gross margins may not be the right indicator because fixed cost varies for different applications. Thereby, a high gross margin might not necessarily mean higher RoCE. With lower exposure to exports, effective tax rate is up by 1 ppt. Further, lower other income aggravated the fall in net profit by a seventh at Rs1.8 bn. We continue to remain bullish: The short term outlook in exports is weak. With product pricing power and versatility, we like KKC IN. We see green shoots domestic. Exports are just a matter of time. Conventional valuations may misguide. As we have always said: With two shifts, six days a week, here is a company that is running the show at 75% capacity utilization. Add another shift with seven days a week, we concur, with 100% capacity utilization KKC IN has a long way to go. Outlook and Valuation We forecast 12.5% CAGR in revenues until FY18. Further, with cost rationalization and TRIMS, we forecast, in a base-scenario, KKC IN will grow its EBITDA by 21% CAGR over next two fiscals. Given superior product profiles be it Q60 engines or be it dual fuel engine for DEMUs, the pricing power and cost efficiency we reiterate will keep the enviable RoE intact. Thus, we value this company on 30x FY18E EPS. Thus, we increase our target price to Rs1,020 (from Rs978). From earlier ACCUMULATE, we upgrade the stock to BUY. Risks: (1) Slower than anticipated recovery in domestic and global markets; and (2) Intensive competition may weigh on gross margins. Tale: Financial snapshot Year Revenue EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj. PAT EPS (Rs) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) FY15 44,058 6,266 14.2 7,652 27.6 30.4 37.0 28.1 23.9 FY16 47,243 7,604 16.1 7,519 27.1 31.0 30.5 24.8 24.9 FY17E 51,655 9,360 18.1 8,376 30.2 27.8 24.8 24.9 27.3 FY18E 59,896 11,146 18.6 9,424 34.0 24.7 20.7 24.9 28.6
Table: Quarterly Snapshot Quarter Ended Q1FY17 Q1FY16 YoY Chg (%) Q4FY16 QoQ Chg (%) Net Sales 12,590 13,101 (3.9) 10,614 18.6 EBIDTA 2,063 2,217 (6.9) 1,773 16.4 Other income 416 595 (30.1) 513 (18.9) PBIDT 2,479 2,812 (11.8) 2,286 8.5 Depreciation (206) (203) 1.3 206 (200.1) Interest (21) (24) (10.8) 24 (189.2) PBT 2,252 2,585 (12.9) 2,056 9.5 Tax (440) (472) (6.7) 386 (214.0) Adjusted PAT 1,812 2,114 (14.3) 1,670 8.5 Reported PAT 1,812 2,114 (14.3) 1,670 8.5 No. of shares (mn) 554 554 554 EBIDTA margin (%) 16.4 16.9 16.7 PBIDT margin (%) 19.7 21.5 21.5 EPS - annualized (Rs) 13.1 15.2 (14.3) 12.0 8.5 Table: Reconciliation with IGAAP Q1FY17 Q1FY16 YoY Chg (%) PAT IGAAP 1642 2107 (22.1) Discounting of provisions 29.3 20.8 40.9 Gain on fair value 0.9 (10.7) Unwinding of interest (21.8) (21.8) 0.0 Re-measurement of defined plans 34.6 22.2 55.9 Deferred tax impact (14.5) (4.3) PAT INDAS 1670 2114 (21.0) 2
Financial summary Profit & Loss Account Cash Flow Statement Net sales 44,058 47,243 51,655 59,896 Growth (%) 10.8 7.2 9.3 16.0 Operating expenses (37,792) (39,639) (42,295) (48,751) EBITDA 6,266 7,604 9,360 11,146 Growth (%) (10.1) 21.4 23.1 19.1 Depreciation (797) (810) (976) (1,144) EBIT 5,469 6,794 8,384 10,002 Interest paid (13) (9) (62) (62) Other income 2,866 2,279 2,692 1,478 Pre-tax profit 8,322 9,064 11,014 11,418 Tax (1,515) (1,546) (2,638) (1,993) Effective tax rate (%) 18.2 17.1 24.0 17.5 Net profit 6,807 7,519 8,376 9,424 Adjusted net profit 7,652 7,519 8,376 9,424 Growth (%) 24.2 (1.7) 11.4 12.5 Shares o/s (mn nos) 277 277 277 277 Balance Sheet Net fixed assets 14,046 18,086 21,006 23,952 Investments 4,650 3,354 3,354 3,354 Other non-curr assets (631) (817) (817) (817) Current assets 19,888 20,030 23,122 26,132 Inventories 6,823 6,003 8,318 9,644 Sundry Debtors 9,355 9,506 10,586 12,274 Cash and Bank 799 897 739 1,936 Loans and advances 2,911 3,625 3,478 2,279 Total assets 37,953 40,654 46,665 52,622 Shareholders' funds 28,865 31,713 35,432 40,199 Share capital 554 554 554 554 Reserves & surplus 28,311 31,159 34,877 39,645 Curr Liab & prov 12,273 11,773 14,065 15,254 Current liabilities 8,337 8,058 9,528 9,994 Provisions 3,937 3,714 4,537 5,260 Total liabilities 9,088 8,941 11,233 12,423 Total equity & liabilities 37,953 40,654 46,665 52,622 Book Value (Rs) 104 114 128 145 Pre-tax profit 8,322 9,064 11,014 11,418 Depreciation 562 532 976 1,144 Tax paid (1,350) (1,360) (2,638) (1,993) Chg in working capital (2,173) (545) (957) (624) Cash flow from operations (a) 5,012 7,729 8,395 9,944 Capital expenditure (4,459) (4,573) (3,896) (4,091) Chg in investments 303 1,296 - - Cash flow from investing (b) (563) (2,964) (3,896) (4,091) Dividend (incl. tax) (4,657) (4,657) (4,657) (4,657) Cash flow from financing (c) (4,261) (4,662) (4,657) (4,657) Net chg in cash (a+b+c) 188 103 (158) 1,197 Financial Ratio Adj EPS (Rs) 27.6 27.1 30.2 34.0 Adj EPS growth (%) 24.2 (1.7) 11.4 12.5 EBITDA margin (%) 14.2 16.1 18.1 18.6 Pre-tax margin (%) 18.9 19.2 21.3 19.1 ROE (%) 28.1 24.8 24.9 24.9 ROCE (%) 23.9 24.9 27.3 28.6 Turnover & Leverage ratios (x) Asset turnover (x) 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 Leverage factor (x) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Net margin (%) 17.4 15.9 16.2 15.7 Net Debt/Equity (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Working Capital & Liquidity ratio Inventory days 57 46 59 59 Receivable days 78 73 75 75 Payable days 81 74 82 75 Valuations PER (x) 30.4 31.0 27.8 24.7 Price/Book value (x) 8.1 7.3 6.6 5.8 PCE (x) 27.6 28.0 24.9 22.0 EV/Net sales (x) 5.3 4.9 4.5 3.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 37.0 30.5 24.8 20.7 Dividend Yield (%) 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 3
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