New Hampshire FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll 30 November 07 Polling was conducted by telephone November 27-29, 2007, in the evenings. The total sample is 1000 likely New Hampshire primary voters with a margin of error of ±3%. Likely Democratic Primary Voters subsample n=500, ±4 percentage points Likely Republican Primary Voters subsample n=500, ±4 percentage points Likely Republican Primary Voters I m going to read you a list of candidates. If the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary were held today, would you vote for...? (ROTATE) 1. Mitt Romney 29% 2. John McCain 21 3. Rudy Giuliani 19 4. Mike Huckabee 7 5. Ron Paul 4 6. Fred Thompson 4 7. Duncan Hunter 1 8. Tom Tancredo - 9. (Other) 1 10. (Don t know) 14 Likely Democratic Primary Voters I m going to read you a list of candidates. If the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary were held today, would you vote for...? (ROTATE) 1. Hillary Clinton 30% 2. Barack Obama 23 3. John Edwards 17 4. Bill Richardson 12 5. Joe Biden 3 6. Dennis Kucinich 3 7. Chris Dodd 1 8. Mike Gravel - 9. (Other) - 10. (Don t know) 12
Are you certain to support that candidate, or do you think you may change your mind and support someone else in the 2008 New Hampshire presidential primary? Certain to support May change mind (Don t know) 27-29 Nov 07 50% 36 14 Dem primary voters 50% 37 13 GOP primary voters 49% 36 15 If your candidate were not on the ballot, which candidate would be your second choice? Likely Republican Primary Voters Mitt Romney 20% Rudy Giuliani 19 John McCain 12 Mike Huckabee 9 Ron Paul 4 Fred Thompson 3 Duncan Hunter 2 Tom Tancredo 2 (Other) 3 (No second choice) - (Don t know) 26 Likely Democratic Primary Voters Barack Obama 21% John Edwards 19 Hillary Clinton 13 Bill Richardson 9 Joe Biden 6 Chris Dodd 3 Dennis Kucinich 1 Mike Gravel 1 (Other) 5 (No second choice) - (Don t know) 22 Republican Primary Voters How confident are you that if (INSERT NAME OF RESPONDENT S FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE) is nominated, he can beat the Democratic candidate in the 2008 general election? SCALE: 1. Extremely confident 2. Very confident 3. Somewhat confident 4. Not very confident 5. (Don t know) - Confident - - Not confident Total Ext Vry Total Smwt Ntvry (DK) 27-29 Nov 07 45% 16 29 37 29 8 17 Democratic Primary Voters How confident are you that if (INSERT NAME OF RESPONDENT S FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE) is nominated, s/he can beat the Republican candidate in the 2008 general election? SCALE: 1. Extremely confident 2. Very confident 3. Somewhat confident 4. Not very confident 5. (Don t know) - Confident - - Not confident Total Ext Vry Total Smwt Ntvry (DK) 27-29 Nov 07 57% 26 31 29 24 5 14
(Ask all) Regardless of how you plan to vote, who do you believe will be the next president of the United States? (OPEN ENDED DO NOT READ RESPONSES) Likely Primary Voters All Dem Rep (Hillary Clinton) 29% 41% 17% (Mitt Romney) 11 2 19 (Barack Obama) 9 14 3 (Rudy Giuliani) 8 2 13 (John Edwards) 3 4 1 (John McCain) 3 1 6 (Mike Huckabee) 1-2 (Bill Richardson) 1 2 - (Joe Biden) - - 1 (Ron Paul) - - 1 (Fred Thompson) - - 1 (Other) - 1 - (Don t know) 34 32 36 (Ask all) Thinking specifically about your vote in the presidential primary, which ONE of the following would you say is the MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE in deciding which candidate to support over the party s other candidates? Was it the candidate s position on: (ROTATE) Likely Primary Voters All Dem Rep 1. The war in Iraq 27% 36% 17% 2. The economy 19 18 21 3. Health care 17 25 9 4. Homeland security 9 4 14 5. Immigration 8 2 15 6. Taxes 5 2 7 7. Education 4 7 2 8. Abortion 4 2 6 9. (Don t know) 7 6 8 Republican Primary Voters I m going to read you a list of qualities many people think are important in presidential candidates. Thinking specifically about your vote in the primary, which ONE quality mattered most in deciding who you are supporting over the other candidates in the Republican primary... (ROTATE) 1. He is the most honest and trustworthy 32% 2. He stands up for what he believes 30 3. He has the right experience 18 4. He has the best chance to win against the Democrat 9 5. He is a true conservative 6 6. (Don t know/refused) 5 Democratic Primary Voters I m going to read you a list of qualities many people think are important in presidential candidates. Thinking specifically about your vote in the primary, which ONE quality mattered most in deciding who you are supporting over the other candidates in the Democratic primary... (ROTATE) 1. Is the most honest and trustworthy 32% 2. Has the right experience 22 3. Understands average Americans 16 4. Has new ideas 13 5. Has the best chance to win against the Republican 10 6. Is likeable 3 7. (Don t know) 4
Democratic Primary Voters How would you feel if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Party s presidential nomination? SCALE: 1. Very satisfied 2. Somewhat satisfied 3. (Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied) 4. Somewhat dissatisfied 5. Very dissatisfied 6. (Don t know) - Satisfied - - Dissatisfied Total Vry Smwt Total Smwt Vry (Nthr) (DK) 27-29 Nov 07 69% 35 34 22 10 12 8 2 How would you feel if Barack Obama wins the Democratic Party s presidential nomination? - Satisfied - - Dissatisfied Total Vry Smwt Total Smwt Vry (Nthr) (DK) 27-29 Nov 07 74% 36 38 16 9 7 8 3 (Ask all) Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president? Is that strongly or only somewhat? SCALE: 1. Strongly approve 2. Somewhat approve 3. Somewhat disapprove 4. Strongly disapprove 5. (Don t know/refused) - Approve - - Disapprove Total Stgly Smwt Total Smwt Stgly (DK/Ref) 27-29 Nov 07 34% 12 22 63 16 47 3 Dem primary voters 10% 4 6 88 13 75 2 GOP primary voters 57% 20 37 39 19 20 4
New Hampshire Democratic Primary Trial Heat Clinton Obama Edwards Richardson Dodd Biden Undecided ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Likely Democratic Primary Voters 30% 23% 17% 12% 1% 3% 12% Certain to support 41% 25% 19% 11% 1% May change mind 23% 26% 19% 17% 3% 7% Most Important Candidate Quality New ideas 17% 51% 9% 6% 14% Right experience 55% 7% 5% 22% 2% 1% 7% Best chance to win against GOP 34% 18% 15% 4% 2% 3% 19% Understands average Americans 34% 15% 22% 13% 2% 5% 6% Is likeable 14% 19% 39% 8% 14% Most honest & trustworthy 18% 28% 24% 11% 1% 4% 12% Most Important Issue to Vote Homeland security 35% 15% 5% 21% 5% 5% 15% Economy 41% 27% 16% 6% 2% 7% Iraq war 26% 20% 19% 15% 1% 3% 12% Immigration 24% 25% 13% 12% 26% Taxes 27% 18% 37% 8% Abortion 28% 47% 12% Health care 29% 22% 20% 8% 2% 1% 14% Second Choice Clinton voters 61% 22% 11% 3% Obama 56% 24% 15% 2% 2% Edwards 47% 31% 13% 1% 1% Richardson 36% 28% 19% 4% 6% Female 33% 24% 15% 10% 1% 2% 11% Male 26% 21% 18% 14% 1% 4% 13% Married women 38% 24% 14% 10% 2% 3% 8% Married Men 24% 19% 21% 12% 1% 4% 15% Approve of Bush job 33% 27% 14% 11% 4% 4% 6% Disapprove 30% 23% 17% 12% 1% 3% 12% 18-45 32% 29% 12% 13% 1% 2% 8% 30-45 33% 28% 10% 16% 1% 3% 7% 46-54 28% 23% 20% 11% 2% 3% 11% 55-64 23% 25% 19% 16% 2% 3% 8% 55+ 29% 20% 17% 12% 1% 3% 14% 65+ 34% 16% 16% 10% 3% 19% Very liberal 29% 31% 13% 8% 3% 10% Liberal 36% 24% 13% 10% 1% 3% 9% Moderate 27% 22% 17% 14% 2% 4% 12% Strong Democrat 38% 20% 15% 10% 1% 2% 12% Democrat 37% 19% 14% 9% 1% 3% 14% Independent 18% 28% 20% 17% 1% 3% 8% College 26% 24% 17% 13% 1% 3% 12% No College 42% 17% 16% 10% 2% 3% 9% Less than $50,000 27% 24% 18% 8% 2% 2% 14% $50,000 and above 32% 23% 15% 12% 1% 4% 9%
Most Important Candidate Characteristic to Vote Most Under- Best Right honest & stands chance exper- trust- New average to win ience worthy Likeable Ideas Americans ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Likely Democratic Primary Voters 10% 22% 32% 3% 13% 16% Clinton voters 11% 40% 19% 1% 7% 19% Obama 8% 7% 39% 2% 28% 11% Edwards 9% 7% 46% 7% 7% 21% Richardson 3% 40% 29% 6% 18% Dodd 16% 33% 18% 33% Biden 12% 6% 41% 8% 26% Female 12% 21% 30% 2% 12% 19% Male 8% 23% 33% 3% 14% 13% Married women 12% 22% 32% 1% 11% 21% Married Men 9% 21% 38% 3% 12% 14% 18-45 7% 22% 31% 2% 19% 17% 30-45 10% 27% 30% 3% 14% 17% 46-54 7% 23% 26% 1% 13% 23% 55-64 10% 24% 34% 4% 11% 15% 55+ 12% 21% 35% 4% 10% 13% 65+ 14% 18% 36% 4% 10% 12% Very liberal 14% 20% 21% 4% 20% 18% Liberal 14% 21% 28% 4% 14% 16% Moderate 9% 24% 32% 2% 13% 17% Strong Democrat 12% 24% 29% 2% 12% 15% Democrat 10% 24% 29% 3% 13% 15% Independent 9% 19% 37% 2% 12% 18% College 11% 23% 32% 2% 13% 16% No College 8% 16% 32% 7% 12% 16% Less than $50,000 11% 20% 32% 5% 12% 16% $50,000 and above 10% 25% 32% 2% 14% 16% Confident Your Candidate Can Beat the Republican in 2008 Extremely Very Somewhat Not very Confident Confident Confident Confident ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Clinton voters 42% 35% 20% 2% Obama 29% 38% 28% 4% Edwards 25% 36% 32% 5% Richardson 21% 36% 27% 10%
Most Important Issue The war Health The Immigra- Homeland in Iraq care economy tion security Education Taxes Abortion ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Likely Dem Primary Voters 36% 25% 18% 2% 4% 7% 2% 2% Clinton voters 32% 24% 25% 1% 5% 5% 2% 2% Obama 33% 24% 21% 2% 3% 9% 3% Edwards 40% 29% 17% 1% 1% 7% 2% 1% Richardson 46% 16% 8% 7% 10% 7% Dodd 32% 33% 17% Biden 41% 12% 14% 6% 6% 6% Female 38% 27% 14% 1% 3% 9% 2% 1% Male 34% 22% 21% 2% 5% 4% 3% 2% Married women 34% 28% 15% 1% 4% 9% 3% 2% Married Men 34% 22% 21% 2% 4% 3% 3% 3% 18-45 34% 19% 21% 6% 11% 2% 5% 30-45 31% 19% 23% 4% 10% 3% 6% 46-54 30% 25% 20% 2% 4% 6% 5% 1% 55-64 38% 30% 15% 1% 4% 6% 2% 1% 55+ 40% 27% 15% 2% 3% 5% 1% *% 65+ 41% 24% 15% 3% 3% 4% 1% Very liberal 40% 28% 9% 1% 6% 2% 5% Liberal 37% 25% 16% 4% 9% 1% 4% Moderate 37% 24% 19% 2% 4% 5% 3% Strong Democrat 40% 23% 18% 1% 2% 7% 2% 2% Democrat 38% 23% 18% 1% 4% 7% 2% 2% Independent 33% 27% 17% 2% 4% 7% 3% 1% College 38% 25% 16% 2% 3% 7% 2% 2% No College 31% 25% 22% 2% 6% 7% 3% 2% Less than $50,000 39% 23% 21% 2% 3% 6% $50,000 and above 35% 26% 16% 1% 4% 8% 2% 2% Certainty of Vote Certain to support May change mind Likely Democratic Primary Voters 49% 36% Clinton voters 70% 29% Obama 56% 43% Edwards 58% 42% Richardson 47% 51%
New Hampshire Republican Primary Trial Heat Romney McCain Giuliani Paul Huckabee Thompson Undecided ---------- ---------- ---------- --------- ---------- --------- --------- Likely Republican Primary Voters 29% 21% 19% 4% 7% 4% 14% Certain to support 32% 26% 21% 5% 7% 6% May change mind 34% 22% 24% 5% 10% 2% Most Important Candidate Quality Stands up for what he believes 26% 22% 20% 5% 10% 5% 8% Best chance to win against Dem 39% 7% 38% 2% 2% 12% Right experience 35% 17% 27% 3% 3% 2% 12% Most honest & trustworthy 23% 30% 12% 6% 9% 3% 16% True conservative 46% 16% 3% 7% 7% 10% 7% Most Important Issue to Vote Homeland security 34% 13% 30% 4% 5% 4% 10% Economy 29% 19% 17% 6% 9% 1% 19% Iraq war 21% 33% 22% 3% 4% 3% 9% Immigration 39% 12% 19% 5% 5% 7% 8% Taxes 30% 22% 19% 8% 10% 11% Abortion 22% 13% 6% 41% 13% Health care 24% 38% 15% 9% 2% 11% Second Choice Romney voters 29% 45% 4% 13% 7% McCain 40% 36% 7% 14% 2% Giuliani 69% 25% 1% 3% 2% Huckabee 42% 24% 19% 6% 6% Female 28% 20% 21% 2% 9% 2% 16% Male 29% 23% 16% 7% 6% 6% 10% Strongly approve of Bush job 23% 20% 19% 4% 10% 7% 15% Approve of Bush job 32% 20% 17% 3% 9% 5% 12% Disapprove 25% 23% 21% 6% 4% 2% 15% Pro-life 29% 19% 15% 3% 13% 7% 12% Pro-choice 30% 23% 22% 6% 3% 2% 13% 18-45 20% 20% 28% 7% 7% 8% 6% 30-45 19% 15% 35% 10% 7% 6% 8% 46-54 37% 14% 23% 4% 7% 3% 10% 55-64 29% 24% 20% 4% 6% 2% 12% 55+ 29% 24% 13% 4% 8% 3% 18% 65+ 29% 23% 9% 4% 9% 3% 22% Very conservative 28% 13% 12% 1% 16% 8% 17% Conservative 34% 15% 15% 3% 10% 5% 16% Moderate 25% 26% 24% 6% 5% 2% 11% Strong Republican 31% 21% 16% 2% 10% 4% 15% Republican 30% 21% 18% 2% 10% 3% 16% Independent 29% 21% 21% 9% 4% 4% 9% Protestant 24% 24% 20% 6% 4% 4% 16% Catholic 32% 23% 17% 2% 7% 7% 9% Gun owner household 29% 21% 18% 5% 8% 4% 13% College 32% 18% 21% 5% 7% 2% 13% No College 22% 28% 13% 4% 8% 7% 14% Less than $50,000 19% 33% 11% 2% 11% 4% 18% $50,000 and above 34% 17% 20% 5% 6% 5% 10%
Most Important Candidate Characteristic to Vote Most Best Right honest & True chance exper- trust- conser- Stands to win ience worthy vative up ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Likely Republican Primary Voters 9% 18% 32% 6% 30% Romney voters 12% 22% 26% 9% 27% McCain 3% 15% 45% 4% 31% Giuliani 17% 27% 21% 1% 32% Paul 14% 46% 9% 31% Huckabee 3% 8% 40% 5% 42% Thompson 5% 11% 25% 16% 38% Female 7% 18% 31% 6% 33% Male 10% 19% 34% 5% 27% Strongly approve of Bush job 7% 16% 31% 7% 33% Approve 8% 17% 34% 8% 29% Disapprove 9% 20% 31% 3% 31% Pro-life 7% 16% 34% 9% 31% Pro-choice 10% 19% 33% 3% 30% 18-45 7% 19% 25% 5% 41% 30-45 9% 21% 23% 6% 36% 46-54 11% 18% 30% 9% 29% 55-64 8% 21% 29% 5% 30% 55+ 8% 18% 37% 5% 26% 65+ 9% 16% 42% 5% 23% Very conservative 4% 19% 30% 14% 29% Conservative 8% 18% 33% 9% 29% Moderate 10% 20% 31% 3% 31% Strong Republican 8% 22% 33% 8% 27% Republican 8% 22% 34% 6% 27% Independent 10% 11% 29% 5% 36% Protestant 9% 21% 32% 5% 28% Evangelical Protestant 15% 11% 25% 7% 37% Catholic 8% 15% 32% 9% 33% Gun owner household 8% 17% 34% 8% 29% College 9% 20% 32% 6% 28% No College 8% 15% 34% 4% 35% Less than $50,000 13% 11% 39% 5% 28% $50,000 and above 9% 20% 31% 5% 32% Confident Your Candidate Can Beat the Democrat in 2008 Extremely Very Somewhat Not very Confident Confident Confident Confident ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Romney voters 15% 36% 39% 7% McCain 19% 35% 31% 10% Giuliani 29% 32% 29% 7%
Most Important Issue The war Health The Immigra- Homeland in Iraq care economy tion security Educ Taxes Abortion ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---- ----- -------- Likely Republican Primary Voters 17% 9% 21% 15% 14% 2% 7% 6% Romney voters 12% 8% 21% 21% 17% 3% 8% 5% McCain 27% 16% 18% 8% 9% 2% 7% 4% Giuliani 20% 7% 19% 16% 22% 3% 7% 2% Paul 13% 18% 26% 17% 13% 13% Huckabee 11% 3% 27% 11% 10% 3% 36% Thompson 15% 5% 27% 16% 20% Female 17% 11% 20% 13% 16% 2% 4% 8% Male 18% 7% 22% 18% 13% 3% 11% 5% Strongly approve of Bush job 14% 5% 18% 18% 18% 3% 6% 6% Approve of Bush job 13% 7% 20% 14% 17% 2% 7% 10% Disapprove 23% 12% 23% 15% 10% 2% 8% 2% Pro-life 15% 7% 16% 15% 17% *% 5% 4% Pro-choice 18% 9% 24% 15% 13% 4% 10% 1% 18-45 17% 11% 15% 15% 11% 4% 14% 7% 30-45 17% 12% 18% 12% 12% 5% 16% 2% 46-54 14% 6% 26% 11% 18% 3% 6% 7% 55-64 18% 11% 24% 14% 15% 2% 6% 8% 55+ 18% 9% 21% 17% 14% 1% 5% 6% 65+ 19% 8% 19% 19% 14% 1% 5% 5% Very conservative 14% 2% 14% 22% 15% 2% 6% 3% Conservative 14% 5% 20% 17% 15% 2% 6% 11% Moderate 20% 13% 22% 14% 15% 1% 9% 1% Strong Republican 13% 7% 17% 15% 20% 2% 7% 9% Republican 16% 8% 20% 13% 18% 2% 7% 8% Independent 17% 13% 20% 20% 8% 2% 8% 5% Protestant 21% 10% 20% 14% 16% 3% 6% 2% Catholic 16% 7% 20% 18% 15% 1% 8% 7% Gun owner household 15% 8% 24% 18% 14% 2% 8% 6% College 18% 9% 22% 16% 14% 2% 7% 5% No College 16% 10% 17% 14% 14% 2% 8% 9% Less than $50,000 22% 5% 18% 19% 10% 3% 9% 8% $50,000 and above 15% 9% 22% 14% 19% 2% 8% 7% Certainty of Vote May Certain change to support mind Likely Republican Primary Voters 49% 36% Romney voters 55% 43% McCain 60% 38% Giuliani 55% 45% Paul 57% 43% Huckabee 46% 48% Thompson 80% 20%