U.S. and New England Economic Conditions and Outlook

U.S. and New England Economic Conditions and Outlook Yolanda Kodrzycki Senior Economist and Policy Advisor charts prepared by Ana Patricia Muñoz presented to New England Board of Higher Education conference on After the Crash: A New Reality for Higher Education October 26, 2009

Chronology of the U.S. economic downturn and emergent recovery Housing bubble bursts Repercussions are widespread Severe recession and financial crisis ensue Fiscal and monetary policymakers take unprecedented actions

Local impact: New England region has lost 302,000 jobs since 2008 peak. Thousands of Jobs 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 -60 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But unlike last two recessions: percentage decrease not worse in New England than nationally. Index, Peak = 100 101 100 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 New England United States Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Rhode Island has suffered the sharpest job losses. Index, Peak = 100 101 100 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 VT RI NH MA ME CT Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Construction employment has fallen 21 percent since early 2008. Education & Health Care is the only major sector with job gains. NE employment: Percent change since Feb 2008 peak Government Services Leisure & Hospitality Educ/health Professional and businesses serv Financial Information Trade/transport/util Manufacturing Construction -25-20 -15-10 -5 0 5

Four sectors have lost at least 60,000 jobs. NE Employment: Change in jobs since Feb 2008 (thousands) Government Services Leisure & Hospitality Educ/health Professional and businesses serv Financial Information Trade/transport/util Manufacturing Construction -80.0-60.0-40.0-20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0

Percent 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 New England unemployment rate highest since 1976. United States New England Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 September 2009 United States 9.8 New England 8.9 Connecticut 8.4 Maine 8.5 Massachusetts 9.3 New Hampshire 7.2 Rhode Island 13.0 Vermont 6.7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Percent

Single-family housing permits have finally bottomed out and are beginning to turn up a little. Index, 1988=1 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 New England United States 974 units Aug-03 Jan-04 Jun-04 Nov-04 Apr-05 Sep-05 Feb-06 Jul-06 Dec-06 May-07 Oct-07 Mar-08 Aug-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 Aug-13 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Construction Statistics Division.

Boston-area home prices fell to their 2003 levels and may be starting to rise. 200 180 160 140 Case-Shiller home price index for Boston (Index January 2000=100) 120 100 Sep 2005-July 2009-15% 80 Jul-03 Dec-03 May-04 Oct-04 Mar-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Source: Standard & Poors.

Home prices in almost all other large metro areas have come down even more. Percent change Date of peak (peak-jul 09) Las Vegas May-06-54.8 Phoenix Mar-06-53.1 Miami Sep-06-47.6 Detroit Sep-05-44.7 San Francisco Feb-06-41.0 Los Angeles Jun-06-40.2 Tampa Apr-06-40.0 San Diego Aug-05-39.7 Minneapolis Jun-06-30.6 Washington Feb-06-29.8 Chicago Jun-06-23.9 Seatle May-07-22.3 Portland Apr-07-19.5 New York Mar-06-19.5 Atlanta Apr-07-19.4 Boston Sep-05-15.3 Cleveland Apr-06-12.6 Charlotte May-07-10.8 Denver May-06-8.2 Source: Standard & Poors.

Federal Reserve officials expect positive U.S. GDP growth in the second half of 2009 and 2010. Latest staff forecasts more optimistic, but still show high unemployment at yearend 2010. CY 2009 Q4 CY 2010 Q4 CY 2011 Q4 Real GDP growth (%) -1.5 to -1.0 2.1 to 3.3 3.8 to 4.6 Unemployment rate (%) 9.8 to 10.1 9.5 to 9.8 8.4 to 8.8 PCE inflation (%) 1.0 to 1.4 1.2 to 1.8 1.1 to 2.0 Source: Federal Open Market Committee, Summary of Economic Projections for the Meeting of June 2009. Table shows central tendencies among the Federal Reserve Board governors and Federal Reserve Bank presidents. Note: Projections are fourth-quarter to- fourth-quarter growth rates except for the unemployment rate, which is the fourth quarter level. 13

Why will the economic recovery be so gradual? Banks remaining cautious in extending credit. Consumers remaining cautious in spending. Businesses remaining cautious in hiring and investing. Effects of fiscal stimulus fading.

Why will the economic recovery be so gradual? Banks remaining cautious in extending credit. Consumers remaining cautious in spending. Businesses remaining cautious in hiring and investing. Effects of fiscal stimulus fading. QUESTIONS?