11/9/211 Montgomery County Council Montgomery County, Maryland Economic Outlook, 22 Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University November 8, 211 ($ Bil 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1,281 736 15 Largest Metro Areas 21 GRP 532 425 385 374 347 326 314 272 258 231 2 198 191 Source: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
11/9/211 % 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 15 Largest Metro Areas GRP Percent Change 27-1 Source: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Job Change Since 2 15 Largest Job Markets (s) 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
11/9/211 Share of Washington Area Economy 197-21 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% Northern Virginia Suburban MD D.C. 21 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12. % Other Federal 15.7 % Local Serving Activities 36.6% Federal 34.9% Procurement 19.2% Other: Health/Education, Media GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
11/9/211 Annual Job Change Washington MSA s Annual Data 8 6 Annual Month over Year 29 21 211 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 Dec Oct Dec Oct 28 26 24 22 Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Job Change by Sector Sept 21 Sept 211 Washington MSA Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. -3-5 -4-2 -4 (s) Total = 8,5 12 3 2 1 5 1-2 -1 1 2 3 Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
11/9/211 21 Structure of the Montgomery County Economy $69.5 billion (21$) Non-Local Business 11.2 % Other Federal 16.5% Other Local Business 42.2% Total Local Business 46.% Federal 29.7% Procurement 13.2% Local Hosp. 3.8% Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland s Annual Data 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 Annual Month over Year 29 21 211 Dec Oct Dec Oct 28 26 24 22 Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
11/9/211 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Sept 21 Sept 211 Suburban Maryland -4-4 (s) Total - 3,4-2 -1 1 2-2 -1 1 2 3 Source: BLS March 21 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5 Unemployment Rate 14 12 1 8 6 4 11. DC 9.1 U.S. 6.3 SMD 6.1 MSA 4.9 - NVA 2 Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
11/9/211 Comparative Economic Performance Montgomery & Fairfax Counties, Washington Area: 199-21 Characteristics MC FX WMSA Economic Growth* 87.3% 132.5% 99.5% Job Growth 15.4% 57.5% 31.7% Unemployment 199 2.5% 2.% 3.2% Unemployment 21 5.6% 4.9% 6.2% Federal Spending, 199 $5.8b $5.6b $42.6 b Payroll, 199 $1.9b $1.b $17.1b Procurement, 199 $2.b $3.1b $12.6b Federal Spending, 21 $2.7b $33.5b $169.b Payroll, 21 $5.1b $3.3b $42.7b Procurement, 21 $9.2b $25.1b $81.2b *gross county product Montgomery County Growth Trends: 199-21 Characteristics 199 21 % Change Population 761,671 971,777 27.6 Median Age 32.7 38.5 17.7 Dependency Ratio.51.57 11.8 Job Growth 43,812 465,963 15.4 Jobs/Person 5.3/1 4.8/1-9.4 GCP* $33.36b $62.49b 87.3 Average Salary (21$s) $44,72 $67,161 5.2 *gross county product GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
11/9/211 MC Employment Structure, 21 Sector Number of Jobs Percent Professional and Bus. Services 19,35 23.4 Government 86,299 18.5 Education and Health Services 63,25 13.6 Subtotal 258,584 55.5 Retail Trade* 59,654 12.8 Leisure and Hospitality 37,591 8.1 Financial Services 32,623 7. Other Services 25,434 5.5 Construction 24,86 5.3 Information Services 14,685 3.2 Manufacturing 12,585 2.7 Total 465,963 1. *includes transportation and utilities Economic Forecast, 21-22 Metric 22 Increase Percent Gross Regional Product $577.5 b $152.5 b 35.9 Metro Area Job Growth 4.292 m 53.1k 13.3 Replacement Job Openings 91.4k 23.8 MC Gross County Product $94. b $24.5 b 35.2 MC Population Growth 1,8,815 19,38 11.2 MC Job Growth 565,133 92,514 19.6 Prof. & Bus. Services 14,826 31,791 29.2 Education and Health Ser. 81,799 18,549 29.3 Subtotal* 222,625 5,34 Other Major Sectors** 183,938 29,264 18.9 *37% of job base projected to generate 55.7% of Montgomery County s new jobs. **retail trade, financial services, leisure and hospitality services, construction GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
11/9/211 22 Structure of the Montgomery County Economy $94. billion (21$) Non-Local Business 17.3 % Other Federal 13.4% Federal 24.2% Procurement 1.8% Other Local Business 38.4% Total Local Business 43.9% Local Hosp. 4.5% Challenges Facing Montgomery County Having a sufficient supply and quality of labor to support future job growth; Having sufficient housing resources in number, variety of types, and range of costs both for renters and owners to house an Increasing share of the county s workforce thereby reducing the economy s dependence on commuters to fill the county s jobs; and, Being competitive with other area jurisdictions in terms of location and operating costs and business friendly reputation. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
11/9/211 Housing Montgomery County s Future Workforce, Low Forecast Income Single-family Multi-family Total Percent Less than $5K 3,897 12,846 16,743 41.8 $5K - $1K 5,317 1,986 16,33 4.7 $1K -$15K 3,497 2,327 5,824 14.6 $15K + 99 15 1,14 2.9 Total Housing Units 13,71 26,39 4,1 1. COG Round 8 Housing Unit Forecast = 37,5 Housing Montgomery County s Future Workforce, High Forecast Income Single-family Multi-family Total Percent Less than $5K 5,995 19,762 25,757 41.8 $5K - $1K 8,18 16,92 25,82 4.7 $1K -$15K 5,379 3,58 8,959 14.6 $15K + 1,523 23 1,753 2.8 Total Housing Units 21,77 4,474 61,551 1. COG Round 8 Housing Unit Forecast = 37,5 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
11/9/211 cra.gmu.edu GMU/Cardinal Bank 2 th Annual Economic Forecasting Conference Tysons Ritz Carlton January 13, 212 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 11