2 Weekly Letter Market summary..........2 Weekly performance............3 Company News LAFARGEHOLCIM MAROC: Declining half-year 2017 results.........4 TOTAL MAROC: Half year performances quite in line with our forecasts.........6 ADDOHA: A half-year activity impacted by a difficult sector situation......7 AFRIQUIA GAZ: Well oriented half year achievements....... 9 SONASID: Upturn of the half year Net Income.........10 MINIERE TOUISSIT: Mitigated results in H1 2017....11 AUTO NEJMA: Attenuated H1 results........12 Key Performance Indicators.... 14 Highlights Despite a good orientation, the Casablanca Stock Exchange closed its last weekly session on a negative note with a MASI decreasing by 0.24% to 12,140.47 points and a MADEX declining by 0.26% to 9,877.20 points for y-t-d performances of +4.26% and +3.46% respectively; The Central Market s transactional volume amounted to MAD 247.3m, made up to an extent of 51.1% by the transactions on 143,511 ALLIANCES stocks (i.e. 1.1% stake), 91,740 JET CONTRACTORS securities (i.e. 3.8% stake), 14,850 LAFARGEHOLCIM MAROC shares (i.e. 0.1% stake), 515,908 ADDOHA securities (i.e. 0.2% stake) and 27,432 BMCI stocks (i.e. 0.2% stake); Among the strongest increases, JET CONTRACTORS climbs by 9.47% to MAD 312 while ENNAKL gained 9.15% to MAD 54.85 for 484 traded stocks; In contrast, CTM declined by 9.95% to MAD 882.5 for 24 traded shares despite the release of good half-yearly results, whereas CMT dropped by 7.5% to MAD 1,480 for 1,525 traded stocks, probably after the release of its H1 2017 results that were below the market s expectations. Casablanca Tunis Abidjan Dakar Cotonou Our research is also available on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset, Capital IQ et Research Pool. Please refer to the important legal information at the end of the document and our website: http://www.bmcecapitalbourse.com
Market summary Floating MASI Daily perf Annual perf Floating MADEX Daily perf Annual perf FTSE CSE Morocco 15 Daily perf Annual perf FTSE CSE Morocco All Liquid Daily perf Annual perf Volume Central Market 12,140.47 pts -0.24% +4.26% 9,877.20 pts -0.26% +3.46% 11,482.91 pts -0.76% +7.14% 10,387.50 pts -0.21% +4.59% MAD 247.3 m MAD 247.3 m 100.0% OTC Market MAD 0.0 m 0.0% Market Capitalization MAD 615.7 bn Ranking central volume Shares Volume % Total In MAD m Volume ALLIANCES 29.2 11.8% JET CONTRACTORS 27.5 11.1% LAFARGEHOLCIM MAROC 26.6 10.8% ADDOHA 22.5 9.1% BMCI 20.5 8.3% MASI and MADEX since 29/09/2016 Base 100 MASI (Rebased) MADEX (Rebased) 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Top 5 sector indexes Indexes Points % Var YTD Holdings 4,730.13 + 2.55% + 6.85% Construction & Building materials 17,896.43 + 1.84% -15.23% Retail 22,986.48 + 1.74% + 6.84% IT 937.85 + 0.44% + 35.41% Food 29,033.72 + 0.36% + 23.79% Ranking OTC volume Price per share Volume Shares Number of shares In MAD In MAD m Nil - - - Biggest rises and falls Rising shares Price on Quantity P/E D/Y % Change 09-29-17 Traded 2017E 2017E JET CONTRACTORS 312.0 91,740 +9.47% n/d n/d ENNAKL 54.8 484 +9.15% 10.5x 6.0% BMCI 750.0 27,432 +7.91% 19.6x 4.0% CIMENTS DU MAROC 1,596.0 4,722 +5.70% 23.7x 3.8% M2M GROUP 320.0 194 +5.26% n/d n/d Falling shares Price on Quantity P/E D/Y % Change 09-29-17 Traded 2017E 2017E CTM 882.5 24-9.95% n/d n/d MINIERE TOUISSIT 1,480.0 1,525-7.50% 14.9x 3.4% IB MAROC 124.2 711-5.77% n/d n/d ZELLIDJA 124.0 31-4.62% n/d n/d AFRIC INDUSTRIES 290.5 5-2.81% n/d n/d NB: Changes are calculated in reference to the last transaction price. 2
Weekly Performance Market Indicators Floating Floating MASI MADEX CLOSING 12,140.47 pts 9,877.20 pts PREVIOUS DAY - 0.24 % - 0.26 % 1 WEEK - 2.43 % - 2.65 % 3 MONTHS + 0.73 % + 0.13 % YEAR-TO-DATE + 4.26 % + 3.46 % Main increases of MADEX shares Shares Closing Weekly Y-T-D Perf Perf JET CONTRACTORS 312.0 + 33.91 % + 90.36 % DELATTRE LEVIVIER 189.1 + 7.53 % - 0.45 % CARTIER SAADA 25.0 + 5.93 % + 19.33 % CIMENTS DU MAROC 1,596.0 + 5.63 % + 22.96 % S2M 264.0 + 5.60 % + 23.94 % SALAFIN 950.0 + 5.56 % + 14.46 % BMCI 750.0 + 3.22 % + 22.95 % WAFA ASSURANCE 4,850.0 + 3.17 % + 4.30 % LESIEUR CRISTAL 165.0 + 3.13 % + 22.22 % MANAGEM 1,699.0 + 2.97 % + 73.54 % Principal volumes for the week In MAD k Central OTC Total(MAD m) Market Market LAFARGEHOLCIM MAROC 151,338 0 151,338 ALLIANCES 127,943 0 127,943 MARSA MAROC 77,584 0 77,584 COSUMAR 74,640 0 74,640 JET CONTRACTORS 74,284 0 74,284 ATTIJARIWAFA BANK 66,888 0 66,888 ADDOHA 59,943 0 59,943 MAROC TELECOM 58,636 0 58,636 SNEP 42,213 0 42,213 SONASID 42,121 0 42,121 Volumes for the week 09/25/17 to 09/29/17 Central Market OTC Market 359.3 247.3 158.7 139.5 Retail Market vs. Institutionals Global Volume MAD 983.2 m Central Market MAD 983.2 m 100.0% OTC Market MAD 0.0 m 0.0% Main decreases of MADEX shares Shares Closing Weekly Y-T-D Perf Perf ALLIANCES 202.0-26.55 % + 118.61 % RISMA 130.0-23.51 % + 10.36 % LAFARGEHOLCIM MAROC 1,791.0-17.66 % - 26.90 % IB MAROC 124.2-17.14 % + 32.13 % FENIE BROSSETTE 136.4-13.15 % + 55.92 % SONASID 710.0-10.12 % + 83.91 % CTM 882.5-9.95 % + 44.91 % MARSA MAROC 137.6-8.63 % + 17.61 % ADDOHA 43.3-7.78 % + 0.63 % MINIERE TOUISSIT 1,480.0-7.56 % + 9.63 % Screening Top 5 least volatile stocks Shares Volatility Volatility 3 months 1 year MAROC TELECOM 6.4% 13.6% ATTIJARIWAFA BANK 14.9% 18.6% ADDOHA 16.4% 28.0% BMCE BANK 16.4% 18.4% BCP 16.8% 25.6% Weekly schedule of coming coupon removals Shares Dividend (In MAD) Date of removal Nil - - Schedule of coming meetings Shares Type of meeting Date of meeting BMCE BANK H1 2017 Results Presentation 10/02/2017 SONASID STROC INDUSTRIE COLORADO ALLIANCES LYDEC MICRODATA H1 2017 Results Presentation H1 2017 Results Presentation H1 2017 Results Presentation H1 2017 Results Presentation H1 2017 Results Presentation H1 2017 Results Presentation 10/02/2017 10/02/2017 10/03/2017 10/03/2017 10/03/2017 10/05/2017 78.5 - - - - - 9/25/2017 9/26/2017 9/27/2017 9/28/2017 9/29/2017 3
vvdsvdvsdy 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 juin 14 sept. 14 déc. 14 mars 15 juin 15 s ep t. 15 déc. 15 mars 16 juin 16 sept. 16 dé c. 16 ma rs 17 ju in 17 sept. 17 Source: FactSet Price Short Avg (Rebased) Company news LAFARGEHOLCIM MAROC Price: MAD 2,087 Closing price as of: 26/09/2017 Reuters/Bloomberg LHM.CS/LFM MC Declining half-year 2017 results Fact: Release of H1 2017 financial statement. MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE Analysis: According to the Top Management, LAFARGEHOLCIM MAROC Group s activity was marked in H1 2017 namely by: The signature of the order for the cement plant in Agadir, with an annual production capacity of 1.7 MT; The entry into production of the Laâyoune grinding plant, with a capacity of 200 KT / year; The commissioning of the constructive solutions development lab in Bouskoura, SMART CONSTRUCTION LAB (SCL); The opening of a sales depot in Agadir; The decline by 9.2% in cement sales to 6.8 MT in the domestic market; And, the rise in the price of petcoke. In this context, the national leader in the building materials sector registered consolidated sales of MAD 3,928m (i.e. 48% of our annual forecasts not yet adjusted), down by 10.3% on a pro-forma basis in H1 2016 (consolidated accounts post-merger by absorption of HOLCIM MAROC by LAFARGE CIMENTS). Despite efforts to control costs and to pursue its synergies plan, consolidated operating income decreases by 17.4% on a pro-forma basis to MAD 1,566.1m (i.e. 47% of our annual forecasts not yet adjusted). As a result, the operating margin stands at 39.9% compared to 43.3% on a pro-forma basis. Including a negative consolidated financial result of MAD -88.8m (vs. MAD -37.9m on a pro-forma basis) and a negative consolidated non-current result of MAD -83.3m (vs. MAD -47.2m on a pro-forma basis), the consolidated net income stands at MAD 966.2m (i.e. 46% of our annual forecasts not yet adjusted), decreasing by 21.9% on a pro-forma basis, setting the net margin at 24.6% compared to 28.2% on a pro-forma basis. Similarly for the Net Income Group-share of MAD 966.2m, which depreciates by 21.8% on a pro-forma basis. Concerning the balance sheet, the Group recorded a negative working capital of MAD -1,173.5m against MAD -471.3m in 2016, for a working capital requirement of MAD 846m (+3.8x). As a result, the net cash deteriorated to MAD -2,019.5m against MAD -695.6m at end 2016. For its part, the net debt amounted to MAD 6,019.5m (+28.2%), establishing the gearing at 55.1% compared to 40.5% at the end of 2016. Table: Change in the main aggregates in H1 2017 and comparison with our BKR forecasts Data in MAD m Achievements BMCE Capital Research forecasts H1 2016 H1 2017 H1 2016 H1 2017 Consolidated revenues 4,379.8 3,928.0-10.3% 8,253.6 48% Consolidated EBIT 1,895.0 1,566.1-17.4% 3,301.4 47% Operating margin 43.3% 39.9% -3.4pt 40.0% - Consolidated Net Income 1,236.1 966.2-21.8% 2,080.6 46% Net margin 28.2% 24.6% -3.6pt 25.2% - Source: Company, BMCE Capital Research The individual accounts of LAFARGEHOLCIM MAROC recorded the following half-yearly results: Sales up by 44.2% to MAD 3,846.9m; An EBIT increasing by 30.8% to MAD 1,445m; And, a net income declining by 1.9% to MAD 899.5m. 4
In terms of prospects, LAFARGEHOLCIM MAROC Group anticipates an improvement in market conditions in H2 2017, which should partially offset the decline recorded in the first half of the year. In parallel, the cement mastodon intends to: Pursue its differentiation and commercial innovation strategies through the launch of new products in all markets and the development of integrated offers on roads and ports; Strengthen its presence on major infrastructure projects: launch of the Nador West Med harbor and the Casablanca hopper; Consolidate its position in the South with the increase in volumes sold at the new Laâyoune grinding plant and the opening of a new depot and a concrete plant in Agadir; Continue its development strategy in Africa, notably through the export of clinker; And, ontrol its variable costs through the use of alternative fuels and the entry into force of the contract with the company ACWA POWER for the supply of wind energy. Valuation and recommendation being updated. Analyst(s): Hajar TAHRI LAMTAHRI h.tahri@bmcek.co.ma +212 5 22 42 78 24 5
vvdsvdvsdy 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 déc. 14 mars 15 ju in 15 sept. 15 dé c. 15 mar s 16 juin 16 s ep t. 16 déc. 16 mars 17 juin 17 sept. 17 Source: FactSet Price Short Avg (Rebased) Company news TOTAL MAROC Price: MAD 1,650.00 Closing price as of : 09/27/2017 Reuters/Bloomberg TMA.CS/ Half year performances quite in line with our forecasts Fact : Publication of H1 2017 results Analysis: Taking advantage of the rise in oil price, TOTAL MOROCCO, shows a good results for the first half of 2017. Indeed the Company s consolidated Turnover increased by 28.3% compared to H1 2016 to MAD 4.7bn (i.e. 53.6% of our annual non-adjusted forecasts). This performance is driven by: The rise of oil prices which average prices in H1 2017 rose by 28% compared to H1 2016; The increase of 2.2% in volumes to 689.9 KT; The development of the Liquefied Petroleum Gas business, which grew by 3.2% thanks in particular to the investments in bottles; Lubricant sales growth of 4.5%; And, strong commercial dynamic with a network that reached 305 stations at the end of June 2017 (9 openings in the first half). Less dynamic and presumably reflecting the fact that TOTAL MAROC did not fully pass on the oil price increase, operating income grew by 14.5% to MAD 601.8m (i.e. 51% of our annual non-adjusted forecasts), capitalizing on the costs controls operated, as well as the continuation by TOTAL MAROC of the development of products and concepts with high added value (TOTAL EXCELLIUM, LA CROISSANTERIE, TOTAL WASH, etc.). The operating margin decreased accordingly by 1.5 points to 12.7%, mainly due to higher procurement costs, which increased by 36.2%. Incorporating a financial result returning to a positive territory from MAD -16.6m in H1 2016 to K MAD 389, the Net Income-Group Share of TOTAL Group's Moroccan subsidiary reported a 19.4% improvement to MAD 480.6m (i.e. 55% of our non-adjusted annual forecasts), for a near-stagnation net margin to 10.2% against 10.9% in H1 2016. GAS Table: Evolution of the main aggregates in H1 2017 in comparison with BKR forecasts Source: Company, BMCE Capital Research At the balance sheet level, working capital turns positive again compared to the end of 2016 due to the increase in reserves as well as financial debt, while the need in working capital up surged by 14.5x over the same period to MAD 591.8m mainly as a result of higher stocks (increase in security stocks) and accounts receivable. As a result, net cash increased its deficit from MAD 177.5m to MAD -481.7m. The net Debt increases in these conditions by 2.7x to MAD 832m for a gearing of 58.3% (vs. 21.9% in 2016). However, the solvency of the TOTAL MAROC remains strong with a net debt /EBITDA (annualized) of 0.6x and interest charges/ebitda lower than 1. Valuation and recommendation update in progress. Results BMCE Capital Research forecasts H1 2016 H1 2017 Var % 2017 E % Results Sales 3689 4731,2 28% 8827 54% Operating income 526 601,8 14% 1182 51% Operating margin 14,3% 12,7% -1,5pt 5,7% - Net Income-Group Share 403 480,6 19% 880 55% Net Margin 10,9% 10,2% -0,8pt 3,8% - Analyst(s) : El Bachir SAMAOLI b.samaoli@bmcek.co.ma +212 5 22 42 78 28 Hicham SÂADANI h.saadani@bmcek.co.ma +212 5 22 42 78 53 6
vvdsvdvsdy 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 Source: FactSet 20 juin 14 s ep t. 14 déc. 14 mar s 15 juin 15 sept. 15 déc. 15 mars 16 ju in 16 sept. 16 déc. 16 ma rs 17 juin 17 sept. 17 dé c. 17 Price Short Avg (Rebased) Company news ADDOHA REAL ESTATE Price: MAD 43 Closing price as of: 09/29/2017 Reuters/Bloomberg ADH.CS/ADH MC A half-year activity impacted by a difficult sector situation Fact: Release of H1 2017 financial statements. Analysis: Operating in a difficult sector, ADDOHA Group posted declining financial results at the end of the first six months of the current year. In terms of sales, the SEFRIOUI Group's real estate subsidiary recorded pre-sales of 5,989 units (vs. 5,438 units in H1 2016), of which 88% were in the Economic and Mid-range segment (Eco & Mid-range) and 12% in the High-end. In terms of production, the Group produced 6,091 units (vs. 6,595 units in H1 2016), 93% of which by the Business Unit (BU) Eco & Mid-range and 7% by the High-end one. At the operational level, the company delivered 7,210 units (vs. 8,038 units in H1 2016), generating a consolidated turnover dropping by 14.7% on a pro-forma* basis to MAD 3,023.9m (i.e. 42 % of our annual forecasts not yet adjusted), of which 67% by the Eco & Mid-range segment and 33% by the High-end. This evolution is explained in particular by the Management's desire to shift some of its production towards H2 2017, which will ensure revenues in line with the Group's objectives. The Group's gross margin stands at 29.5%, with a 30% gross margin for the Eco & Mid-range BU and a 28% for the High-end. In this wake, the consolidated operating income decreased by 18.5% on a pro-forma basis to MAD 710.9m (i.e. 47% of our annual forecasts not yet adjusted), due to the increase in operating expenses representing 61% of the turnover against 56.3% on a pro-forma basis. As a result, the operating margin decreased by 1.1 bps on a pro-forma basis to 23.5%. For its part, the consolidated financial result mitigates its losses to MAD -15.4m against MAD -23.9m on a pro-forma basis, following the 15.7% decline on a pro-forma basis of the cost of debt to MAD 204m in the wake of the net debt. The consolidated non-current result, on the other hand, jumped by 2.9x on a pro-forma basis to MAD 178.6m. Consequently, the consolidated net income limits its decline to 6.5% on a pro-forma basis, amounting to MAD 648.2m, for a net margin of 21.4% against 19.6% on pro-forma basis. Taking into account the above and minority interests decreasing by 30.3% on a pro-forma basis to MAD 87.3m, the Net Income Group-Share stands at MAD 560.9m (52% of our annual forecasts not yet adjusted), down by 1.3% on a pro-forma basis. In the balance sheet, the working capital decreased by 4.2% on a pro-forma basis to MAD 15.7bn, for a working capital requirements that improved by 3.8% on a pro-forma basis to MAD 17bn, or 2.0x our turnover in 2017 E. Consequently, the net treasury stands at MAD -1.3bn (as in 2016 on a pro-forma basis). * In accordance with IFRS 10, the Group has decided to consolidate the two subsidiaries MABANI ZELLIDJA and GENERAL FIRM OF MOROCCO into full consolidation instead of the equity method, since the method of management and the process of making operational and financial decisions of these two companies confirm that they are controlled by the Group. The published financial statements are those of the interim situation as of 30/06/2017 and include a comparison on a pro-forma basis with the financial statements for the financial year 2016 for the balance sheet and with H1 2016 for the income statement. Net debt declined by 3.2% on a pro-forma basis to MAD 6bn, following debt reduction efforts. As a result, the gearing declined by 0.9 bps to 47.5%. The Group s solvency slightly deteriorated with an in interest expense / EBITDA ratio of 26.8% compared to 24.4% on a pro-forma basis and a net debt / annualized EBITDA ratio of 3.9x. On 06/30/2017, operating cash flow amounted to MAD 1.4bn. 7
Table: Change in the main aggregates in H1 2017 and comparison with BKR forecasts Data in MAD m Achievements BMCE Capital Research forecasts H1 2016 pro h1 2017 % Chg 2017 E % Acheievements Consolidated turnover 3,546.2 3,023.9-14.7% 7,167.0 42% Consolidated EBIT 872.4 710.9-18.5% 1,518.5 47% Operating margin 24.6% 23.5% -1.1pt 21.2% - Net Income Group- Share 568.4 560.9-1.3% 1,070.0 52% Source: Company, BMCE Capital Research On the other hand, the company's financial performance (individual statements) was down compared to the end of June 2016, with revenues of MAD 1,498m (-27.2%), an EBIT of MAD 262.9m (-34.7%) and a net income of MAD 427.9m (-32.9%). Concerning the disbursements related to the acquisition of land, these latters amounted to MAD 320m and comprise: A land in Dar Bouazza for a consistency of 300 CORALIA units; A land in the new town of Errahma for a consistency of 2,000 social units as part of the Attawhid II project; And the finalization of the acquisition of a land reserve of an area of nearly 90 ha in Errahma for a consistency of 20,000 units of social housing. Concerning its development in Africa, the Group confirms that ongoing projects the LOCODJORO and KOUMASSI programs in Côte d'ivoire, CITE DE L'EMERGENCE in Senegal and CITE DOUANE in Guinea Conakry are going smoothly. Consequently, the first deliveries are planned for Q1 2018 in Côte d'ivoire and Senegal for a contribution of MAD 300m to the consolidated turnover in 2018. Valuation and recommendation being updated. Analyst(s) : Hajar TAHRI LAMTAHRI h.tahri@bmcek.co.ma +212 5 22 42 78 24 8
vvdsvdvsdy 3 000 2 800 2 600 2 400 2 200 2 000 1 800 1 600 juin 14 sept. 14 déc. 14 mars 15 juin 15 sept. 15 déc. 15 mars 16 juin 16 sept. 16 déc. 16 mar s 17 juin 17 sept. 17 déc. 17 Source: FactSet Price Short Avg (Rebased) Company news AFRIQUIA GAZ GAS Price: MAD 2,801.00 Closing price as of : 09/29/2017 Reuters/Bloomberg AGAZ1.CS/GAZ MC Well oriented half year achievements Fact: Publication of financial statements for H1 2017 Analysis: A the end of H1 2017 the subsidiary of AKWA GROUP posted well oriented performances. Indeed, taking advantage of the increase in volumes sold comparatively to H1 2016 (+ 2.5% to KT 533) and likely of a positive price effect, the consolidated Turnover of AFRIQUIA GAZ shows an improvement of 23.8% to MAD 2.2bn (58.7% of our annual forecasts not yet adjusted). To a lower extent, the operating income improved by 8.5% to MAD 382.7m (54.2% of our annual forecasts not yet adjusted), mainly impacted by higher supply charges which increased by 32.2% compared to the end of June 2016, likely due to the liberalization of imports. Therefore, the margin loses consequently 2.5 points to 17.8%. Incorporating a financial result that widens its deficit moving from MAD -13m in H1 2016 to MAD 20.2m in H1 2017 and the result of subsidiaries accounted using the equity method which rises by 157%, AFG s Net Income-Group Share grew by 15.2% to MAD 293.1m (55.9% of our annual forecasts not yet adjusted). In these conditions, the operating margin decreases by one point to 13.6%. Table: Evolution of main aggregates in H1 2017 and comparative with BKR forecasts Results BMCE Capital Research forecasts H1 2016 H1 2017 Var % 2017 E % Réalisation Sales 1,741.3 2155.0 24% 3,668.8 59% Operating Income 352.9 382.7 8% 706.6 54% Operating margin 20.3% 17.8% -2.5pt 19.3% - Net Income-Group Share 254.4 293.1 15% 524.8 56% Net Margin 14.6% 13.6% -1.0pt 14.3% - Source: Firm, BMCE Capital Research Regarding the balance sheet, the Group s Working Capital remains negative at MAD -274.1m (against MAD -256.2m at the end of December 2016) while the surplus in Working Capital improves from MAD 398.2m at the end of 2016 to MAD 566.3m in H1 2017 due to an increase of accounts payable and a decrease of accounts receivable (better payment terms). The Net Cash improves by 106% to MAD 292.3m. The Net Debt decreases by 20% to MAD 599.1m for a gearing of 27.6% and solvency ratios quite comfortable (Net Debt/annualized EBITDA of 0.45x and interest charges /EBITDA of 4.5%). Finally and on individual basis, AFG reported an increasing Turnover by 31.7% to MAD 2 587.4m, an Operating Income in improvement by 16.4% to MAD 350.3m and a Net Income rising by 18.4% to MAD 261.5m. Valuation and recommendation update in progress Analyst(s) : El Bachir SAMAOLI b.samaoli@bmcek.co.ma +212 5 22 42 78 28 Hicham SÂADANI h.saadani@bmcek.co.ma +212 5 22 42 78 53 9
vvdsvdvsdy 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 juin 14 sept. 14 déc. 14 mars 15 juin 15 s ep t. 15 déc. 15 mars 16 juin 16 sept. 16 dé c. 16 ma rs 17 ju in 17 sept. 17 Source: FactSet Price Short Avg (Rebased) Company news SONASID Price: MAD 748 Closing price as of: 25/09/2017 Reuters/Bloomberg SOND.CS/SID MC Upturn of the half year Net Income Fact: Publication of a press release. MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE Analysis: Despite an overcapacity of the national market and a 9% decline in local consumption of the reinforced concrete, the Group posted and as we expected (see Flash published on 07/25/2017) an improving financial performance in H1 2017 year-on-year. Indeed, the individual turnover improved by 7% to MAD 1,676m, due to the increase in the average selling price supported by the rise in prices of scrap metal and the reinforced concrete at the international scale. To a large extent, the EBITDA jumped by 6.6x to MAD 131m, due in particular to the nonrecurrence of the provision for inventories of nearly MAD 30m recorded in H1 2016. As a result, the EBITDA margin was 7.8% compared to 1.3% previously. For its part, the EBIT is recovering at MAD 70m against MAD-40m, setting the operating margin at 4.2%. In this wake, the individual Net Income bounced back from MAD -44m on 06/30/2016 to MAD 40m, for a net margin of 2.4%. Regarding the consolidated accounts, the Group shows the following trends: Revenues up 5.8% to MAD 1,709m (i.e. 52% of our annual forecasts not yet adjusted); An EBITDA widening by 7.5x to MAD 136m; And, a Net Income Group-Share of MAD 21m against MAD -61m on 06/30/2016. In terms of prospects, and according to the Management, market conditions are expected to remain highly competitive in the construction sector and public works projects that are experiencing delays in implementation. In this context, SONASID should continue to develop its product and service offerings as well as continue its efforts to rationalize costs and its distribution development initiatives both at the national and international levels. Table: Change in the main aggregates in H1 2017 and comparison with our BKR forecasts Data in MAD m Achievements BMCE Capital Research forecasts H1 2016 H1 2017 % Chg 2017 E % Achievements Consolidated Revenues 1,616 1,709 5.8% 3,303.2 52% NIGS -61 21 ns 86.2 24% Net Margin ns 4.9% ns 10.9% - Source: Company, BMCE Capital Research Valuation and recommendation in progress pending publication of the detailed halfyear financial statements. Analyst(s): Hajar TAHRI LAMTAHRI h.tahri@bmcek.co.ma +212 5 22 42 78 24 10
vvdsvdvsdy 1 700 1 600 1 500 1 400 1 300 1 200 1 100 1 000 900 juin 14 s ep t. 14 déc. 14 mar s 15 juin 15 sept. 15 déc. 15 mars 16 ju in 16 sept. 16 déc. 16 ma rs 17 juin 17 sept. 17 dé c. 17 Source: FactSet Price Short Avg (Rebased) Company news MINIERE TOUISSIT Price: MAD 1,480.00 Closing price as of : 09/29/2017 Reuters/Bloomberg CMT.CS/CMT MC Mitigated results in H1 2017 Fact : Publication of H1 2017 financial statements MINING Analysis: During the first 6 months of 2017 and within a tensed social climate, CMT posted financial performances lower than our expectations. Indeed, the company s consolidated turnover increased by 11% compared to the same period a year earlier to MAD 184.3m (i.e. 42% of our non-adjusted annual forecasts). The company has thereby not fully benefited from the price increase of industrial metals over the period, impacted by the tensed social climate on its mine, leading to a stoppage of activity for 2.5 months and as a consequence a decrease in extraction volumes. However, the company was able to control its operating costs during the stoppage period as evidenced by the improvement of the EBIT by 6.6% to MAD 72.3m (i.e. 36% of our nonadjusted annual forecasts) for an operating margin loosing 1.6 bps to 39.2%. Taking into account a financial result decreasing by 25% compared to H1 2016, to MAD 8m (interest expenses related to the loan from EBRD), and a non-recurrent income moving to negative territory from MAD 220,000 in H1 2016 to MAD -1.3m in H1 2017, the Net Income Group Share shows a near stagnation (+0.02%) to MAD 63.8m (i.e. 38% of our non-adjusted annual forecast). The Net margin declines consequently by 3.8 points to 34.6%. Table: Evolution of main aggregates in H1 2017 and comparison with BKR forecasts Financial results BMCE Capital Research Forecasts H1 2016 H1 2017 Var % 2017 E % Achievements Sales 166.1 184.3 11% 436.8 42% EBIT 67.8 72.3 6.6% 198.7 36% Operating Margin 40.8% 39.2% -1.6pt 45.5% - NIGS 63.7 63.8 0% 166.8 38% Net Margin 38.4% 34.6% -3.8pt 38.2% - Source: Firm, BMCE Capital Research At the balance sheet level, the company s working capital strengthened by 86.6% compared to end 2016 to MAD 444.4m as a result of the EUR 28m loan from ERBD, while the need in working capital slightly worsens by 4.8% to MAD 326.8m. In these conditions, CMT s net debt rises by 38.7% to MAD 102.7m for a gearing of 17.4% and a comfortable solvency (Net Debt/annualized EBITDA of 0.65x). Finally and in terms of perspectives, the Group s Management remains confident regarding the improvement of financial performances during H2 2017thanks to the firm base metal prices in addition to the improvement of the social climate in its mine. Concerning the extension project of Tighza mine, this latter follows its path according to the initial plan and should be completed by end 2020. Valuation and recommendation update in progress. Analyst(s) : El Bachir SAMAOLI b.samaoli@bmcek.co.ma +212 5 22 42 78 28 Hicham SÂADANI h.saadani@bmcek.co.ma +212 5 22 42 78 53 11
vvdsvdvsdy 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 juin 14 sept. 14 déc. 14 mars 15 juin 15 s ep t. 15 déc. 15 mars 16 juin 16 sept. 16 dé c. 16 ma rs 17 ju in 17 sept. 17 Source: FactSet Price Short Avg (Rebased) Company news AUTO NEJMA GENERAL RETAILERS Price: MAD 2,238 Closing price as of : 09/28/2017 Reuters/Bloomberg NEJ1.CS/NEJ MC Attenuated H1 results Fact : Publication of H1 2017 results Analysis : At the end of June 2017, the distributor of MERCEDES BENZ, SSANGYONG and MAHINDRA records a 15.7% increase in Sales to almost 1,925 units compared to the same period a year earlier. Table 1 : Comparison of AUTO NEJMA s Sales breakdown in H1 2016 vs. H1 2017 Sales in units S1 2016 S1 2017 Var % MERCEDES 1,480 1,815 22.6% Utillity Vehicles 1,318 1,463 11.0% Light Commercial Vehicles 162 352 117.3% SSANGYONG 157 71-54.8% Utillity Vehicles 157 71-54.8% Light Commercial Vehicles MAHINDRA 27 39 44.4% Utillity Vehicles 5 1-80.0% Light Commercial Vehicles 22 38 72.7% TOTAL 1,664 1,925 15.7% Source : BMCE Capital Research cross checking. To a lesser extent, Reveues limit their growth to +10.8% at MAD 860.6m (i.e. 46% of our annual forecasts not yet adjusted), likely because of a price and unfavorable product mix effect. Considering a less important increase in operating expenses which weight in Turnover has been reduced to 89% (vs. 90% in H1 2016), the operating income rose by 17.7% to MAD 103.7m (i.e. 48% of our annual forecasts not yet adjusted) for an operating margin of 12% (compared to 11.3% at the end of June 2016). On the other hand, the financial income drops into the red to MAD -1.3m (vs. MAD 1.8m in H1 2016), particularly because of a negative exchange rate balance to MAD -2.3m. Likewise, non-operating income has decreased to MAD -476.2k at the end of June 2017 against K MAD 119.2 at the end of H1 2016, integrating weighted non-current expenses by 52.7% to MAD 1m. In view of these evolutions, the Net Income gains 13.4% to MAD 70.1m (i.e 47% of our annual forecasts not yet adjusted), thus setting the net margin at 8.1% (vs. 8% at the end of 2016). Table 2 : Evolution of the main aggregates H1 2017 and comparison with BKR forecasts Realizations Forecasts BMCE Capital Research H1 2016 H1 2017 Var % 2017 E % Realization Sales 776.5 860.6 11% 1890 46% Operating Income 88.1 103.7 18% 217 48% Operating Margin 11.3% 12.0% 0.7pt 15.4% - Net Income 61.8 70.1 13% 151 47% Net Margin 8.0% 8.1% 0.2pt 11.8% - Source : BMCE Capital Research 12
At balance sheet level, the Company records an improved Working Capital needs by 7.1% to MAD 308.8m and a Working Capital declining by 3.4% to MAD 424.9m compared to the end of 2016. Consequently, net treasury retreats by 7.7% to MAD 116.1m. Valuation and recommendation in the process of being updated. Analyst(s) : Lina KHERCHI l.kherchi@bmcek.co.ma +212 5 22 42 78 26 Hicham SAÂDANI h.saadani@bmcek.co.ma +212 5 22 42 78 53 13
Key performance indicators (1/2) Shares Value on EPS P/E D/Y P/B Capitalization Quantity of shares Perf 2017 09/29/2017 2016 2017E 2018E 2016 2017E 2018E 2016 2017E 2018E 2016 2017E 2018E in % MAD m TOTAL MARKET 4.26% 11.6 12.9 13.7 20.2x 19.3x 18.2x 4.0% 3.6% 3.7% 2.7x 2.8x 2.6x 100.0% 615,698 AGRI-BUSINESS 22.8% 18.6 17.3 18.6 18.6x 20.6x 19.1x 3.6% 4.4% 4.4% 3.2x 3.8x 3.7x 7.2% 44,490 BRASSERIES DU MAROC 2,649.00 2,829,653 15.2% 115.2 122.8 135.8 20.0x 21.6x 19.5x 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2x 4.7x 4.5x 16.8% 7,496 CARTIER SAADA 25.00 5,265,000 19.3% 1.3 n/a n/a 16.3x n/a n/a 4.8% n/a n/a 1.0x n/a n/a 0.3% 132 CENTRALE DANONE 800.00 9,420,000 31.1% 6.3 n/a n/a 97.4x n/a n/a 1.4% n/a n/a 5.5x n/a n/a 16.9% 7,536 COSUMAR 290.00 62,991,429-15.5% 22.3 14.4 15.3 15.4x 20.1x 19.0x 3.8% 4.8% 4.8% 3.2x 3.8x 3.7x 41.1% 18,268 DARI COUSPATE 3,010.00 298,375 2.0% 196.5 n/a n/a 15.0x n/a n/a 2.7% n/a n/a 4.1x n/a n/a 2.0% 898 LESIEUR CRISTAL 165.00 27,631,510 22.2% 7.4 7.6 7.7 18.2x 21.8x 21.4x 3.7% 3.0% 3.0% 2.3x 2.7x 2.6x 10.2% 4,559 OULMES 1,809.00 1,980,000 24.8% 86.2 93.7 107.2 16.8x 19.3x 16.9x 5.2% 4.1% 4.4% 3.9x 4.6x 4.2x 8.1% 3,582 UNIMER 177.00 11,413,880 0.0% 9.9 n/a n/a 17.9x n/a n/a 1.7% n/a n/a 1.2x n/a n/a 4.5% 2,020 INSURANCES 9.5% 18.8 21.6 23.0 18.8x 17.9x 16.8x 2.9% 3.2% 3.2% 2.3x 2.4x 2.2x 4.3% 26,252 ATLANTA 57.00 60,190,436 16.4% 2.6 3.3 3.6 19.2x 17.4x 15.8x 4.1% 2.6% 2.6% 2.0x 2.3x 2.1x 13.1% 3,431 SAHAM ASSURANCE 1,420.00 4,116,874 22.9% 68.4 85.6 89.2 16.9x 16.6x 15.9x 3.5% 2.8% 2.8% 1.3x 1.5x 1.4x 22.3% 5,846 WAFA ASSURANCE 4,850.00 3,500,000 4.3% 240.3 261.9 278.7 19.4x 18.5x 17.4x 2.6% 3.4% 3.4% 3.1x 3.0x 2.8x 64.7% 16,975 BANKS 6.2% 17.3 18.6 19.8 18.6x 18.3x 17.2x 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 1.9x 1.9x 1.8x 34.1% 209,738 ATTIJARIWAFA BANK 465.00 203,527,226 12.6% 23.4 25.1 26.3 17.7x 18.5x 17.7x 2.9% 2.8% 3.0% 2.1x 2.2x 2.1x 45.1% 94,640 BCP 300.20 182,254,656 5.4% 14.5 16.4 17.3 19.6x 18.3x 17.4x 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 1.8x 1.8x 1.6x 26.1% 54,713 BMCE BANK 205.25 179,463,400-8.0% 11.3 12.5 13.9 19.7x 16.4x 14.8x 2.2% 2.6% 2.7% 2.2x 1.9x 1.7x 17.6% 36,835 BMCI 750.00 13,279,286 23.0% 32.5 38.2 38.4 18.8x 19.6x 19.5x 8.2% 4.0% 4.1% 0.9x 1.2x 1.2x 4.7% 9,959 CDM 535.00 10,881,214 9.2% 31.1 30.7 29.7 15.7x 17.4x 18.0x 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x 2.8% 5,821 CIH BANK 292.00 26,608,085-2.7% 16.3 11.2 15.1 18.4x 26.1x 19.4x 4.7% 5.1% 5.5% 1.6x 1.6x 1.6x 3.7% 7,770 CHEMISTRY 270.0% 16.6 n/a n/a 9.9x n/s n/s 3.1% n/s n/s 0.8x n/s n/s 0.2% 1,452 SNEP 605.00 2,400,000 270.0% 16.6 n/a n/a 9.9x n/a n/a 3.1% n/a n/a 0.8x n/a n/a 100.0% 1,452 CEMENTS AND METALLURGICAL -11.7% 34.6 59.7 63.1 40.2x 21.3x 20.2x 5.9% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0x 3.8x 3.7x 11.4% 70,038 AFRIC INDUSTRIES 290.50 291,500-17.0% 18.5 n/a n/a 18.9x n/a n/a 4.3% n/a n/a 2.5x n/a n/a 0.1% 85 ALUM DU MAROC 1,300.00 465,954 8.9% 39.2 112.5 120.7 30.5x 11.6x 10.8x 6.7% 7.8% 8.4% 1.5x 1.6x 1.6x 0.9% 606 CIMENTS DU MAROC 1,596.00 14,436,004 23.0% -9.4 67.4 68.5 n/s 23.7x 23.3x 5.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5x 4.3x 4.2x 32.9% 23,040 COLORADO 68.20 12,088,208 26.3% 4.1 4.2 4.5 13.0x 16.4x 15.2x 7.9% 6.2% 6.2% 1.9x 2.4x 2.4x 1.2% 824 JET CONTRACTORS 312.00 2,400,000 90.4% 13.4 n/a n/a 12.2x n/a n/a 2.4% n/a n/a 0.9x n/a n/a 1.1% 749 LAFARGEHOLCIM MAROC 1,791.00 23,431,240-26.9% 88.1 88.8 93.5 27.8x 20.2x 19.1x 6.3% 4.4% 4.4% 5.0x 4.2x 4.0x 59.9% 41,965 SONASID 710.00 3,900,000 83.9% -16.0 22.1 34.4 n/s 32.1x 20.7x 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8x 1.4x 1.3x 4.0% 2,769 BROKERAGE 14.1% 84.1 n/a n/a 13.2x n/s n/s 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4x n/s n/s 0.2% 1,515 AFMA 985.00 1,000,000 20.1% 60.3 n/a n/a 13.6x n/a n/a 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8x n/a n/a 65.0% 985 AGMA LAHLOU 2,652.00 200,000 4.4% 203.5 n/a n/a 12.5x n/s n/s 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7x n/s n/s 35.0% 530 FOOD DISTRIBUTION 21.4% 54.8 66.8 76.1 24.5x 24.4x 21.4x 2.3% 1.9% 1.9% 2.5x 2.9x 2.7x 0.7% 4,141 LABEL' VIE 1,627.00 2,545,277 21.4% 54.8 66.8 76.1 24.5x 24.4x 21.4x 2.3% 1.9% 1.9% 2.5x 2.9x 2.7x 100.0% 4,141 SPECIALIZED DISTRIBUTION -1.4% 4.8 6.8 7.6 21.9x 16.3x 14.6x 4.8% 4.1% 4.2% 2.6x 2.7x 2.5x 1.5% 9,358 AUTO HALL 100.00 49,245,968-9.1% 3.9 4.8 5.7 28.3x 21.0x 17.6x 5.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0x 2.8x 2.7x 52.6% 4,925 AUTO NEJMA 2,238.00 1,023,264 17.8% 120.4 147.1 151.2 15.8x 15.2x 14.8x 3.8% 3.9% 4.1% 2.6x 2.8x 2.6x 24.5% 2,290 ENNAKL 54.85 30,000,000-3.8% 4.5 5.2 5.8 12.7x 10.5x 9.5x 4.9% 6.0% 6.6% 2.9x 2.5x 2.2x 17.6% 1,645 FENIE BROSSETTE 136.35 1,438,984 55.9% -7.3 n/a n/a n/s n/a n/a 0.0% n/a n/a 0.5x n/a n/a 2.1% 196 SRM 312.00 320,000 13.5% 33.7 n/a n/a 8.2x n/a n/a 3.6% n/a n/a 0.6x n/a n/a 1.1% 100 STOKVIS 21.90 9,195,150-1.8% -1.7 n/a n/a n/s n/a n/a 0.0% n/a n/a 3.7x n/a n/a 2.2% 201 ELECTRICITY 6.4% 41.5 42.3 43.1 18.8x 19.6x 19.2x 4.7% 4.3% 4.2% 3.1x 3.1x 3.0x 3.2% 19,578 TAQA MOROCCO 830.00 23,588,542 6.4% 41.5 42.3 43.1 18.8x 19.6x 19.2x 4.7% 4.3% 4.2% 3.1x 3.1x 3.0x 100.0% 19,578 GAS 21.0% 105.0 113.3 119.6 14.7x 17.4x 16.5x 4.0% 3.6% 3.8% 5.3x 5.8x 5.1x 4.0% 24,612 AFRIQUIA GAZ 2,801.00 3,437,500 5.9% 139.3 152.7 164.7 19.0x 18.3x 17.0x 4.0% 3.7% 4.0% 4.1x 4.0x 3.7x 39.1% 9,628 MAGHREB OXYGENE 135.00 812,500 27.4% 13.0 n/a n/a 8.2x n/a n/a 3.8% n/a n/a 0.4x n/a n/a 0.4% 110 TOTAL MAROC 1,660.00 8,960,000 33.3% 100.1 98.2 102.3 12.4x 16.9x 16.2x 4.0% 3.5% 3.7% 8.0x 8.1x 6.7x 60.4% 14,874 14
Key performance indicators (2/2) Value on EPS P/E D/Y P/B Capitalization Shares Quantity of shares Perf 2017 09/08/17 2016 2017E 2018E 2016 2017E 2018E 2016 2017E 2018E 2016 2017E 2018E in % MAD m HOLDING 6.8% 2.3 2.5 2.8 13.1x 12.3x 11.2x 4.1% 3.9% 4.3% 1.5x 1.5x 1.4x 0.5% 2,787 DELTA HOLDING 31.00 87,600,000 6.9% 2.3 2.5 2.8 12.8x 12.3x 11.2x 4.1% 3.9% 4.3% 1.5x 1.5x 1.4x 97.5% 2,716 ZELLIDJA 124.00 572,849 3.3% 0.3 n/a n/a n/s n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 2.5% 71 HOTELS AND LEISURE 10.4% 6.4 n/a n/a 18.5x n/s n/s 0.0% n/s n/s 1.2x n/s n/s 0.3% 1,863 RISMA 130.00 14,326,947 10.4% 6.4 n/a n/a 18.5x n/a n/a 0.0% n/a n/a 1.2x n/a n/a 100.0% 1,863 REAL ESTATE 4.9% 4.5 5.1 5.7 12.3x 11.2x 10.2x 4.3% 5.0% 5.1% 1.2x 1.1x 1.1x 3.4% 21,039 ADDOHA 43.25 322,557,118 0.6% 3.1 3.3 3.5 13.7x 13.0x 12.4x 5.6% 6.0% 6.2% 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x 66.3% 13,951 ALLIANCES 202.00 12,648,928 118.6% 11.4 22.4 33.4 8.1x 9.0x 6.0x 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7x 1.4x 1.1x 12.1% 2,555 BALIMA 95.60 1,744,000-4.0% 5.8 n/a n/a 17.1x n/a n/a 4.4% n/a n/a 1.6x n/a n/a 0.8% 167 RDS 166.60 26,208,850-9.9% 17.9 19.3 19.4 10.4x 8.7x 8.6x 1.8% 4.6% 4.6% 1.2x 1.0x 0.9x 20.8% 4,366 INDUSTRIAL SERVICES 6.5% -17.5 n/a n/a n/s n/s n/s 1.9% n/s n/s 3.7x n/s n/s 0.1% 389 DELATTRE LEVIVIER 189.15 1,250,000-0.4% 9.4 n/a n/a 20.1x n/a n/a 2.9% n/a n/a 1.0x n/a n/a 60.7% 236 MED PAPER 35.19 2,582,555 39.4% -11.3 n/a n/a n/s n/a n/a 0.0% n/a n/a -2.3x n/a n/a 23.3% 91 STROC INDUSTRIE 49.80 1,248,515-1.6% -57.5 n/a n/a n/s n/a n/a 0.0% n/a n/a -0.5x n/a n/a 16.0% 62 INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORTATION 19.3% 8.7 7.0 6.9 14.5x 19.5x 19.9x 6.8% 2.5% 2.5% 3.2x 4.1x 3.7x 1.8% 11,250 CTM 882.50 1,225,978 44.9% 56.8 n/a n/a 10.7x n/a n/a 7.4% n/a n/a 2.4x n/a n/a 9.6% 1,082 MARSA MAROC 137.60 73,395,600 17.6% 7.9 7.0 6.9 14.8x 19.5x 19.9x 6.8% 2.5% 2.5% 3.4x 4.1x 3.7x 89.8% 10,099 TIMAR 228.50 301,100-27.0% 7.7 n/a n/a 40.8x n/a n/a 0.0% n/a n/a 1.0x n/a n/a 0.6% 69 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 34.6% 29.8 52.0 57.9 9.9x n/s n/s 5.6% n/s n/s 1.5x n/s n/s 0.4% 2,589 DISWAY 356.00 1,885,762-0.6% 35.1 36.0 37.7 10.2x 9.9x 9.4x 6.4% 7.0% 7.6% 1.1x 1.0x 1.0x 25.9% 671 HPS 1,450.00 703,599 87.1% 84.1 95.0 112.1 9.2x 15.3x 12.9x 4.5% 2.6% 3.1% 2.2x 3.5x 3.0x 39.4% 1,020 IB MAROC 124.20 417,486 32.1% -8.8 n/a n/a n/s n/a n/a 0.0% n/a n/a 0.7x n/a n/a 2.0% 52 INVOLYS 142.30 382,716 39.8% 19.8 n/a n/a 5.1x n/a n/a 0.0% n/a n/a 0.5x n/a n/a 2.1% 54 M2M GROUP 320.00 647,777 3.1% 12.0 n/a n/a 25.8x n/a n/a 0.0% n/a n/a 1.5x n/a n/a 8.0% 207 MICRODATA 220.00 1,680,000 46.9% 23.8 n/a n/a 6.3x n/a n/a 11.0% n/a n/a 2.4x n/a n/a 14.3% 370 S2M 264.00 812,070 23.9% 21.5 n/a n/a 9.9x n/a n/a 6.8% n/a n/a 2.3x n/a n/a 8.3% 214 ELECTRICS & ELECTRONICS 28.6% 7.5 n/a n/a 19.7x n/s n/s 2.7% n/s n/s 0.5x n/s n/s 0.1% 427 NEXANS MAROC 190.40 2,243,520 28.6% 7.5 n/a n/a 19.7x n/a n/a 2.7% n/a n/a 0.5x n/a n/a 100.0% 427 MINING 61.2% 58.7 64.9 73.8 21.6x 29.6x 26.0x 3.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8x 3.7x 3.5x 4.2% 25,578 MANAGEM 1,699.00 9,991,308 73.5% 31.5 37.3 45.0 31.1x 45.6x 37.8x 2.1% 1.5% 1.5% 2.5x 3.6x 3.5x 66.4% 16,975 MINIERE TOUISSIT 1,480.00 1,681,233 9.6% 98.2 99.2 105.9 13.8x 14.9x 14.0x 3.6% 3.4% 3.6% 3.7x 3.6x 3.2x 9.7% 2,488 REBAB COMPANY 155.00 176,456 19.2% -21.2 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.1% 27 SM IMITER 3,700.00 1,645,090 32.1% 178.1 197.2 215.9 15.7x 18.8x 17.1x 5.4% 4.5% 5.0% 3.2x 4.0x 3.8x 23.8% 6,087 TELECOMS -3.5% 6.4 6.4 6.5 22.3x 21.6x 21.0x 4.5% 4.6% 4.8% 8.1x 7.8x 7.7x 19.6% 120,524 MAROC TELECOM 137.10 879,095,340-3.5% 6.4 6.4 6.5 22.3x 21.6x 21.0x 4.5% 4.6% 4.8% 8.1x 7.8x 7.7x 100.0% 120,524 OIL 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/s n/s n/s n/s n/s n/s n/s n/s n/s 0.2% 1,521 SAMIR 127.80 11,899,665 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 100.0% 1,521 PHARMACEUTICAL 20.9% 84.2 90.3 100.7 14.1x 15.9x 14.3x 7.5% 4.4% 4.4% 3.3x 4.0x 3.6x 0.7% 4,032 PROMOPHARM 1,600.00 1,000,000 32.2% 87.2 92.0 106.1 13.9x 17.4x 15.1x 12.2% 5.0% 5.0% 3.8x 6.2x 5.6x 39.7% 1,600 SOTHEMA 1,351.00 1,800,000 14.4% 82.6 89.4 97.7 14.3x 15.1x 13.8 x 4.7% 4.1% 4.1% 3.1x 3.2x 2.9x 60.3% 2,432 UTILITIES 22.2% 20.0 35.1 36.3 27.0x 18.8x 18.2x 4.2% 3.6% 3.9% 2.4x 2.8x 2.6x 0.9% 5,279 LYDEC 659.90 8,000,000 22.2% 20.0 35.1 36.3 27.0x 18.8x 18.2x 4.2% 3.6% 3.9% 2.4x 2.8x 2.6x 100.0% 5,279 FINANCIAL SERVICES 12.1% 12.9 94.7 98.8 16.3x 44.5x 42.6x 6.3% 4.1% 4.2% 1.5x 4.7x 4.6x 1.2% 7,246 AXA CREDIT 310.00 600,000 6.3% -149.6 n/a n/a n/s n/a n/a 0.0% n/a n/a 2.4x n/a n/a 2.6% 186 DIAC SALAF 26.25 1,053,404 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.4% 28 EQDOM 1,071.00 1,670,250 7.1% 87.8 94.7 98.8 11.4x 11.3x 10.8x 8.5% 8.1% 8.4% 1.1x 1.2x 1.2x 24.7% 1,789 MAGHREBAIL 964.00 1,384,182 4.2% 89.3 n/a n/a 10.4x n/s n/s 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1x n/s n/s 18.4% 1,334 MAROC LEASING 390.00 2,776,768 0.0% 21.7 n/a n/a 17.9x n/s n/s 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3x n/s n/s 14.9% 1,083 SALAFIN 950.00 2,394,497 14.5% 57.8 n/a n/a 14.3x n/s n/s 7.0% 6.2% 6.3% 3.1x n/s n/s 31.4% 2,275 TASLIF 25.69 21,472,500-8.2% 1.8 n/a n/a 15.8x n/s n/s 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7x n/s n/s 7.6% 552 S: Suspended n/s = Not significant n/a = Not available Source: Companies, BMCE Capital Research 15
System of recommendations BMCE Capital Research uses an absolute system of recommendation. The recommendation for each stock is made according to the total return, which is the potential for increase (dividend payout and share buybacks included) within 12 months. BMCE Capital Research uses 5 recommendations: Buy, Accumulate, Hold, Reduce and Sell. In specific cases, for a short period, analysts can choose to suspend their opinion, in which case they use Suspended or Not monitored, terms which are defined below. Definition of the various recommendations Buy: the stock should generate a total gain of more than 20% within 12 months; Accumulate: the stock should generate a total gain ranging from 10% to 20% within 12 months; Hold: the stock should generate a total gain ranging from 0% to 10% within 12 months; Reduce: the stock should record a total drop ranging from 0% to -10% within 12 months; Sell: the stock should record a total drop of more than -10% within 12 months; Suspended: the recommendation is suspended due to a capital transaction (takeover bid, exchange offer or other) or change of analyst; Not monitored: this is used for companies at the time of their IPO or initiating coverage report. Sell Lighten Hold Accumlate Buy -10% 0% +10% +20% This recommendation system is given as an indication. Analysts may diverge in case of an erratic or punctual price evolution on the stock market of a certain value. Thus, the change in recommendation is not systematic and can intervene, in some cases, only after an observation period allowing to confirm the trend of the share on the stock exchange. Methods of valuation This document may refer to the following methods of valuation: DCF: The discounted cashflow method determines the present value of the cashflows that the company will generate in the future. This method is based on estimates established using a certain number of assumptions. We take as the discount rate the weighted average cost of capital, which represents the cost of the company s debt and the cost of stockholders equity estimated by the analysis, weighted for the proportion of each in the company s financing. Sum of parts: This method values the company s different activities separately, on the basis of methods appropriate to each of them and then adds them up. Stock market comparisons: This method compares the company s ratios with those of a sample of companies in the same business or with a similar profile (the comparables ). The average of the sample gives a valuation reference. The analyst then applies a downside or an upside depending on their view of the company (growth prospects, level of returns, etc.). Anglo-Saxon: The Anglo-Saxon method determines the present value of post-acquisition net economic benefits which should be generated by the company in the future taking account of the minimum solvability ratio. 16
Headquarters: 63, Boulevard Moulay Youssef, Casablanca 20 000 Morocco Phone: 00 212 5 22 64 23 00 Fax: 00 212 522 48 10 07 / 00 212 5 22 48 09 52 Casablanca trade register No. 77971 License No. 3/26 by the approval of the Ministry of Finance Contact information: Mr. Mohamed BENJELLOUN Trader Phone: 00 212 522 49 29 47 / 00 2125 22 49 81 12 E-mail: m.benjelloun@bmcek.co.ma Headquarters: Tour BMCE, Rond-Point Hassan II, Casablanca - Morocco Offices: 63, Boulevard Moulay Youssef, Casablanca 20 000 Morocco Phone: 00 212 522 49 89 76 - Fax: 00 212 522 27 38 26 Casablanca trade register No. 128905 Disclaimer This document was prepared by BMCE Capital Research and published in accordance with current procedures. The content of this document comes from various reliable written sources but, in the event of damage resulting from the use of this information, is not binding on BMCE Capital Research, nor on BMCE Capital and nor on BMCE Capital Bourse, including in the case of lack of due care or negligence. BMCE Capital Research has established an organizational structure and procedures (or Chinese wall) designed to guarantee the independence of the financial analysts and the priority of customers interests. A black-out period is stipulated, running from the date of the beginning of drafting of the research memorandum until 3 months after its publication, during which time the financial analysts refrain from trading on their own account in shares in relation with the issuers and sectors they are monitoring. The information contained in this document and any opinion expressed in it do not under any circumstances encourage investment in the financial markets in general and in the Stock Exchange in particular. It is only given for information purposes and cannot be considered in any way as advice. In particular, any revenue from securities referred to in this analysis may fluctuate and the prices of securities may rise or fall. Investors may thus get back less than their initial investment and past performance is no guide to future performance. Currency exchange rates can have a negative effect on the value, price or revenues of the securities mentioned in this document. In addition, foreign investors who hold securities assume a foreign currency risk. This document was drawn up for clients and prospects of BMCE Capital and BMCE Capital Bourse. This document is intended for investors aware of the risks related to financial markets. If any individual should come into possession of this document, they should not make any investment decision solely on the basis of this document and should consult their own advisors. Investors should seek financial advice to ensure that the investment strategies examined or recommended in this document are appropriate and should understand that the opinions on the future prospects may not materialize. BMCE Capital Research, BMCE Capital and BMCE Capital Bourse individually and jointly decline any responsibility in terms of this document and give no guarantee as to the achievement of the targets and recommendations given herein, nor the accuracy or dependability of the information it contains. The information and explanations reproduced herein and the content are the exclusive property of BMCE Capital Research. It is strictly forbidden to copy, modify, reproduce, re-publish, distribute, display or pass on the content to an entity established under private law or public law, for profit or non-profit purposes, irrespective of the medium or means of communication and the good or bad faith of the entity performing any of the above-mentioned actions. The content is for individual, strictly personal use. It may not be used for any commercial purpose or end. There are no exceptions to these rules unless the entity duly considered to be the owner of the intellectual property rights of this content (BMCE Capital Research) so agrees. Any breach of these rules exposes the entity responsible for the breach to the relevant penal sanctions and the legal action necessary for the restoration of the rights of the authors and their compensation. Any disputes concerning these rules shall come under the jurisdiction of the courts of Casablanca. 17
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