The current statistical framework for measuring trade in services and how it can be applied Contact: Andreas.Maurer@wto.org 1
World Trade in Commercial Services, Total Exports, 1980-2002 (USD billion and percentage) % 20 17.5 15 12.5 Share of commercial services in total world trade (goods + services) World trade in commercial services 1600 1200 800 400 USD billion 10 1980 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 2002 0 2
Manual What is the problem for the statistical framework? Goods cross-border Services mode 1: cross-border mode 2: consumption abroad mode 3: commercial presence mode 4: presence of natural persons response: - International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS), Rev.2 - Compilers Manual response: - Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services (Manual) - Compilation guidance 3
Manual The Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services Guidelines and recommendations on the measurement of trade in services Balance of Payments statistics Foreign Affiliates Trade in Services statistics Annex: Movement of natural persons 4
BOP BOP Statistics BOP summarises transactions of an economy with the rest of the world BOP Current account Goods Services Income Current transfers 11 components Transportation Travel Communications etc. Capital & financial account Of interest for GATS purposes but... 5
BOP BOP Statistics More detail needed than the 11 services components Manual introduces an extended classification (EBOPS), based on IMF s 5 th Balance of Payments Manual (BPM5) Most services delivered under Mode 3 and Mode 4 are not covered However, some BOP indicators helpful: Foreign Direct Investment Mode 3 Mode 4 Compensation of employees Workers remittances 6
BOP EBOPS Extended Balance of Payments Services Classification What is it? product-based classification, consistent with 11 BPM5 services components, more detailed than BPM5 services components, including additional memorandum items. How can it be used in the framework of GATS negotiations? Manual provides a table of correspondence between EBOPS / CPC Rev.1 / GATS list of services GNS/W/120. 7
BOP EBOPS Main Components Commercial services: 1. Transportation 2. Travel 3. -10. Other commercial services 11. Government services (not in GATS) 3. Communications services 4. Construction services 5. Insurance services 6. Financial services 7. Computer and information services 8. Royalties and licence fees 9. Other business services 10. Personal, cultural and recreational services 8
BOP Structure of Other Services Exports, 2001 Other business 52% Personal, cultural and recreational 3% Royalties and license fees 12% Computer and information 7% Communications 4% Construction 4% Insurance 4% Financial services 14% 9
BOP EBOPS Detailed Components Breakdown of main components 1. Transport 2. Travel 3. Communications services Sea transport (passenger, freight, other) Air transport (passenger, freight, other) Other transport (passenger, freight, other) Space, Rail, Road,... Business travel Expenditure by seasonal and border workers Other Personal travel Health-related expenditure Education-related expenditure Other Postal & courier Telecommunication etc 10
BOP EBOPS Detailed Components Breakdown of main components 8. Other business services Merchanting and other trade-related services Merchanting Other Operational leasing services Miscellaneous business, professional and technical services Legal, accounting, management, consulting and public relations Legal services... Advertising, market research, public opinion polling Research and development... etc 11
BOP EBOPS Memorandum Items and Alternative Aggregations Memorandum items: useful additional information: Example Travel Aggregations of services and non-services transactions Example Audiovisual transactions Expenditure on goods Expenditure on accommodation and food and beverages All other travel expenditure Services: audiovisual services; audiovisualrelated royalties and license fees Non-services: acquisition/disposal of audiovisual-related patents, copyrights 12
BOP Statistics by Trading Partner Manual recommends to Compile international trade in services statistics on an individual trading partner basis At least for : Services as a whole 11 main services components of BPM5/EBOPS Main trading partners If possible: At more detailed EBOPS level Common geographical basis for all trade in services data 13
BOP International Dissemination of BOP/EBOPS Statistics Publication Country coverage By type of service By partner country IMF Balance of Payments Statistics Database (book and CD-ROM) IMF members Yes BPM5 and EBOPS* (provided to IMF on voluntary basis) No Eurostat New Cronos Database (on-line and CD-ROM) EU members, total EU, euro area, EU candidate countries Yes EBOPS* Yes 40 partner countries and partner regions OECD Statistics on International Trade in Services (a joint publication of OECD and Eurostat) (book, on-line and CD-ROM) OECD members Yes EBOPS* No OECD Statistics on International Trade in Services, Detailed Tables by Partner Country (book, on-line and CD-ROM) 26 OECD members and Hong Kong Total services Transportation Travel Other commercial serv. Government serv. n.i.e. Yes 60 partner countries and partner regions WTO's International Trade Statistics (book, on-line and CD-ROM) All countries Yes Summary data and analysis Yes Summary data * From 2003. Joint OECD-Eurostat Trade in Services Classification up to 2002. 14
Typical questions on globalization and the monitoring of GATS Is a part of the economy controlled by foreigners? To which extent? Which sectors? By which countries? What are the characteristics of foreign affiliates compared to national firms? What is the relative importance of mode 3? 15
FATS Foreign Affiliate Trade in Services Statistics (FATS) Guidelines for measuring the activity of foreign affiliates What are FATS statistics useful for? Focus on services measuring Mode 3 (commercial presence), Help understand the phenomenon of globalisation. What do FATS statistics measure? A range of indicators on the activity of foreign affiliates Inward and outward FATS With a particular focus on services 16
FATS The FDI Universe FDI: the direct investor makes an international investment to obtain a lasting interest in an enterprise abroad Country A Direct investor Owns >10% shares, voting power or the equivalent Country B Direct investment enterprise between 10 and 50% more than 50% wholly or jointly unincorporated enterprise individuals enterprises associated groups of individuals/enterprises governments... Associate Subsidiary Branch 17
FATS Firms Covered in FATS Ownership criteria Majority-owned foreign affiliates (a single foreign investor owns more than 50% of their ordinary shares or voting power): Includes subsidiaries and branches Excludes associates Types of producers Affiliates producing goods, services 18
FATS Economic Variables for FATS Basic FATS variables (minimum recommended by MSITS) Sales (turnover) and/or output Employment Value added Exports and imports of goods and services Number of enterprises Assets Compensation of employees Net worth Net operating surplus Gross fixed capital formation Taxes on income Research and development expenditures Additional FATS variables 19
FATS Geographical Attribution Foreign-owned affiliates in the compiling country (inward FATS) COMPILING COUNTRY Switzerland Operations of foreign-owned affiliate Described Statistics on inward FATS Majority ownership Supplementary information Foreign Investor in France Immediate owner Operations allocated to the country of Majority ownership Foreign Investor in US Ultimate Beneficial Owner 20
FATS Geographical Attribution Foreign affiliates of investors of the compiling country (outward FATS) COMPILING COUNTRY Switzerland Resident investor Majority ownership Foreign affiliate (holding company) in France Majority ownership Statistics on outward FATS Described Operations allocated to the country of Operations of foreign affiliate in US 21
FATS Classification by Activity and by Product FATS variables classified as a first priority on an activity basis Foreign affiliates classified by their primary activity According to ISIC Categories for Foreign Affiliates (ICFA) ICFA can be linked with EBOPS (to a limited extent) Long-term priority FATS variables such as sales, imports and exports should also be broken-down by product 22
FATS Availability of FATS Statistics Inward Outward Number of Turnover Value Exports Number of Turnover Value Exports employees added Imports employees added Imports Australia x x x x Austria x x x x x IF Belgium x x x x Canada x x Czech Republic x x x Denmark x x x Finland x x x x x x France x x x x x Germany x x x x x x Greece x x x x Hungary x x x Ireland x x x Italy x x x x x Japan x x x x x x x x Luxembourg x x Netherlands x x x x Norway x x Poland x x x Portugal x x x x x x x x Sweden x x x x x Switzerland x Turkey x x x United Kingdom x x x United States x x x x x x x x
Finland: Turnover of Service Industries Breakdown by country of majority ownership, 1998 USA 3% Japan 1% Finland 85% Inward FATS sales 15% EU 9% Russian Federation 1% Switzerland 1% Other 0% 24
Australian outward FATS Exports of Goods and Services to outward FATS (Australian-owned) are about 1:1 Sales of foreign affiliates in services-producing activities are twice as high as sales of foreign affiliates in goodsproducing activities Australia s inward FATS statistics correspond with counterparty statistics of other countries, e.g. ABS has estimated that US-owned businesses contributed 9% of industry value added, while the BEA estimate was 9.8% 25
FATS FDI Statistics as an Alternative State of implementation Many countries collect FDI flows, with geographical and activity breakdown (more data for inward than outward) Fewer countries collect FDI income flows Collection and dissemination Eurostat and OECD: FDI inward and outward stock, flows and income (by industry and country) IMF: FDI positions, flows and income, no industry and partner breakdown UNCTAD 26
FATS Availability of FDI and TNCs statistics Selected countries Inward Outward FDI Flows Stocks Flows Stocks Activity breakdown Geographical breakdown Employment TNCs, Inward Turnover Value added Activity and geographical breakdown Albania x x x Brazil x x x Inward Inward China x x x x Inward x x x Activity Chinese Taipei x x x x x x x x x Activity Colombia x x x x x x Croatia x x x x Inward x FYR Macedonia x x x x Moldova x x x x Inflows Hong Kong China x x x x x x x x Activity India x x x x x x x x x Kazakstan x x x x x x Papua New Guinea x x x Inward x Romania x x x x Russian Federation x x x x x Inward Singapore x x x x x x x x x x South Africa x x x x Inward st. x Tunisia x x x x Inflows x 27
Mode 4 The Movement of Natural Persons in GATS Relevant framework GATS main text: mode 4 presence of natural persons GATS Annex movement of natural persons Description of Mode 4 in GATS Annex in terms of Purpose of stay Duration of stay Fulfilling a service contract, whether as a service supplier (self-employed) or as an employee Temporary: Measures regarding citizenship, migration, residence and permanent employment are not covered 28
Mode 4 Mode 4 Service Suppliers From the point of view of the recipient/importing country Mode 4 comprises services delivered in the framework of: service contracts with foreign service suppliers (the individuals themselves or their employer) employment contracts between foreign enterprises established in the host country and foreign individuals Areas of uncertainty employment only with foreign-owned companies? what does the supply of a service refer to? many commitments currently focus on highly-skilled workers 29
Mode 4 Mode 4 and Temporary GATS does not define temporary In WTO Members schedules of commitments Varies between about 3 months (businesss visitors) and 2 to 5 years (intra-corporate transferees) In international statistical standards (BPM5, SNA, migrations) One-year rule distinction between residents/non-residents Statistics on residents also include Mode 4 service suppliers 30
Mode 4 Statistics for Measuring Mode 4 Categories I. Service contracts, delivered in the host country by independent foreign supplier, or its employee(s) II. Employment contracts (non-permanent), for foreigners, in all domestic firms (a) of which: foreignowned or controlled resident services companies Statistical coverage BOP: Service transactions between resident and non-residents, major BPM5 services components BOP: Compensation of employees, with adjustments (service sectors, short-term but more than one year, etc.) Employment/migration statistics: short-term migrants working in services. Would need adjustments for short-term but more than one year A subset of the above; could be derived using the FATS register 31
Modes of supply Allocation of BOP/EBOPS Items to Modes of Supply As a first step, MSITS proposes a simplified approach: Items deemed to be predominantly delivered through one mode Mode 1 Transportation (except supporting and auxiliary services to carriers in foreign ports), Communications services Insurance services Financial services Royalties and license fees Mode 2 Travel (excluding purchases of goods) Supporting and auxiliary services to carriers in foreign ports 32
Modes of supply Allocation of BOP/EBOPS Items to Modes of Supply Simplified approach (continued): Items for which significant elements of 2 modes of supply are involved Mode 1? Mode 4 Computer and information services Other business services Personal, cultural and recreational services Construction services? Mode 3 33
Modes of supply Modes of Supply and Statistical Domains Mode of Supply Mode 1: Cross border supply Mode 2: Consumption abroad Mode 3: Commercial presence Mode 4:Presence of natural persons Relevant Statistical Domains BOP: commercial service (excluding travel and construction services) BOP: Travel FATS statistics BOP: FDI data, construction services Insufficiently covered BOP: commercial service (excluding travel) BOP Statistics: Compensation of employees and workers' remittances 34
Modes of supply Sales by GATS Modes of Supply: Statistical Approximation Mode of Supply Approximation Estimated share 1 - cross-border supply BOP : commercial services exports (excluding travel) 35 % 2 - consumption abroad BOP : travel exports 10 15 % 3 - commercial presence 4 presence of natural persons FATS Statistics: Turnover 50 % BOP : compensation of employees 1 2 % 35
Distribution by modes of supply? Table 1: United States Services exports, 1990 to 2003 billio n US D Se rie s 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 Tra nsports 37 45 50 46 46 48 Passe nge r, cre dit 15 19 21 18 17 16 Freight, credit 8 11 13 12 12 14 Othe r, cre dit 14 15 17 17 17 18 Tra ve l, cre dit 50 75 98 89 85 84 Othe r comme rcia l se rvice s, cre dit 45 79 130 133 143 156 Communications, credit 3 4 4 5 5 6 Construction, credit 1 3 2 3 3 3 Insurance, credit 0 1 4 3 5 5 Financial se rvice s, cre dit 4 7 16 15 16 18 Computer, information serv., C 1 2 6 5 5 5 Royalties, license fees, cred. 17 30 43 41 44 48 Othe r busine ss se rv., cre dit 17 29 49 55 59 64 Pers., cult., recreat. serv. C 1 3 6 7 7 7 Comme rcia l se rvice s, cre dit 133 199 278 268 275 288 Compensation of employees, credit 1 2 3 3 3 3 Wo rke r's re mitta nce s FATS outwa rd sa le s 105 174 387 400 380 Source: IMF, US BEA. 36
United States Distribution by modes of supply 100% 80% 60% Mode 4.1- part of computer and information services, other services Mode 4.2 - exclusively labour related Mode 3 40% Mode 2 20% 0% 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 Mode 1 37