Research Update: Russia-Based B&N Bank Affirmed At 'B/B'; Outlook Stable Primary Credit Analyst: Anastasia Turdyeva, Moscow (7) 495-783-40-91; anastasia.turdyeva@spglobal.com Secondary Contact: Roman Rybalkin, CFA, Moscow (7) 495-783-40-94; roman.rybalkin@spglobal.com Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Ratings Score Snapshot Related Criteria Ratings List WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JUNE 29, 2017 1
Research Update: Russia-Based B&N Bank Affirmed At 'B/B'; Outlook Stable Overview We consider the main risk to B&N Bank's creditworthiness is its exposure to ROST Bank, but believe that shareholders would support B&N Bank if needed, including potential issues caused by substantial deviations from ROST Bank's current rehabilitation plan. Although B&N Bank incurred losses over first-quarter 2017 due to one-off items, we believe that its operating performance will stabilize over 2017, resulting in a positive year-end financial result. We are therefore affirming our 'B/B' long- and short-term counterparty credit ratings on B&N Bank. The stable outlook reflects our view that, despite still-challenging operating conditions in Russia and the ongoing integration of MDM Bank and B&N Bank, B&N Bank will likely maintain its creditworthiness, preserving its capital buffers supported by gradually improving profitability and stabilizing credit costs. Rating Action On June 29, 2017, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B/B' long- and short-term counterparty credit ratings on Russia-based B&N Bank. The outlook is stable. Rationale The affirmation reflects our view that B&N Bank will likely be able to maintain its franchise (following the November 2016 merger with MDM Bank) and financial profile over the next 12 months, with stabilized credit costs and gradually improving profitability. Our assessment of B&N Bank's business position balances an increased market share, thanks to the MDM Bank merger (1.6% of total assets and 2.6% of retail deposits as of June 1, 2017), with still-volatile earnings as well as substantial risks stemming from the interbank loan to ROST Bank being under rehabilitation and the integration of the merged banks. We think that B&N Bank's management team will continue their efforts to transform the bank into a stronger player with a sustainable long-term business model, improving its efficiency to a level comparable with peers', and strengthening its earnings capacity. We expect the bank's loan portfolio growth for 2017-2018 will be about 5%, in line with the 5%-7% average annual lending growth rate we expect for the WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JUNE 29, 2017 2
Russian banking sector. We anticipate that B&N Bank's risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio will stay in the range of 4.0%-4.5% over the next two years, with no additional capital injections. However, we understand that in case of need the bank's shareholders are ready to provide capital support. We forecast that credit costs are likely to be at 3.7%-4.0% in 2017 and reduce toward 3.3% by year-end 2018, due to our expectation of stabilization of asset quality with B&N Bank's nonperforming loans (NPLs) at about 10% and an adequate level of loan-loss provisions. In our view, internal capital generation remains a significant constraint to the bank's stand-alone credit quality while we expect earnings buffers to become marginally positive (at a marginal 5 basis points) only in 2018. Our assessment of B&N Bank's risk position factors in the risks related to the bank's aggressive expansion over recent years; the bank's own asset quality, which is at best on par with the average levels in the sector; and its substantial exposure to ROST Bank, which is under financial rehabilitation with substantially higher levels of problem loans. Therefore, exposure to ROST Bank remains one of the key risks for B&N Bank, in our view. According to our estimates, ROST Bank's NPLs accounted for 9.5% of total loans as of end-march 2017. B&N Bank remains directly exposed to the risks of ROST Bank through an interbank loan to ROST Bank of Russian ruble (RUB) 563 billion (about $10 billion), or 6.8x total adjusted capital (TAC) of the bank as of end-march 2017. However, we think that this risk is partly mitigated by shareholders' commitment to support B&N Bank in case of potential substantial deviations from the currently envisioned rehabilitation plan for ROST Bank. We expect ROST Bank to start gradually repaying the B&N Bank loan in 2018, along with its own loans, and therefore the rate at which B&N Bank's exposure to ROST Bank decreases will depend on the efficiency of management in recovering problem loans at ROST Bank. Further evolution of this exposure will depend on the performance of ROST Bank's loan portfolio. We also note that B&N Bank's exposure to the construction and real estate sector (18.4% of gross loan book as of end-2016), in our view, represents significant concentration risk to a high-risk sector. Therefore, we consider the loan-loss provision coverage ratio of 171% as of March 31, 2017, to be adequate, but not ample. B&N Bank's average funding and adequate liquidity, in our view, reflects its predominantly deposit-based funding, with customer deposits amounting to about 69% of the bank's consolidated total liabilities as of March 31, 2017, of which 79% came from retail customers, supporting good single-name funding diversification. The 20-largest deposits accounted for only 7% of total deposits. Due to the bank's notable share in the Russian banking sector's total assets (1.6%) and retail deposits (2.6%), we consider B&N Bank to have moderate systemic importance. We therefore think the bank would likely receive support, if required, from the Russian government, which we classify as supportive toward systemically important private-sector commercial banks. Our 'B' counterparty credit rating on B&N Bank is therefore one notch above our assessment of the bank's stand-alone credit profile, which we assess at 'b-'. WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JUNE 29, 2017 3
Outlook The stable outlook on B&N Bank reflects our view that over the next 12-18 months the bank will likely maintain its creditworthiness and preserve its capital buffers. We believe this is supported by the bank's gradually improving profitability and stabilizing credit costs, despite still-challenging operating conditions for banks in Russia and the ongoing integration of MDM Bank and B&N Bank. Nevertheless, we acknowledge that the merger and integration risks are important as the bank still has to demonstrate that the merged entity is a sustainable business that is stronger than the individual banks of which it is formed. B&N Bank's exposure to ROST Bank and the latter's performance remains another key risk for the bank. We could take a negative rating action if the bank's loss-absorption capacity materially weakened over the next 12-18 months, due to significant additional provisions created, or other one-time losses that weigh on profitability and capitalization, resulting in our RAC ratio falling close to or below 3%. We could lower the ratings if we saw a significant deterioration of the bank's asset quality, contrary to our current expectations of asset quality stabilization. We could also lower our ratings on B&N Bank if we see substantial delays in or material deviations from the implementation of ROST Bank's financial rehabilitation plan that could negatively affect B&N Bank's creditworthiness. We consider ratings upside to be remote at this stage. An upgrade would require a substantial reduction in B&N Bank's exposure to ROST Bank as well as evidence that the bank's business model is sustainable and that its earnings generation capacity had sustainably improved. The absence of additional integration risks and sufficient internal capital generation would be other important factors for us to consider a positive rating action. Ratings Score Snapshot Issuer Credit Rating B/Stable/B SACP b- Anchor bb- Business Position Moderate (-1) Capital and Earnings Weak (-1) Risk Position Moderate (-1) Funding and Average and Liquidity Adequate (0) Support (+1) ALAC Support (0) GRE Support (0) WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JUNE 29, 2017 4
Group Support (0) Sovereign Support (+1) Additional Factors (0) Related Criteria General Criteria: Methodology For Linking Long-Term And Short-Term Ratings, April 7, 2017 Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Bank Hybrid Capital And Nondeferrable Subordinated Debt Methodology And Assumptions, Jan. 29, 2015 General Criteria: Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Quantitative Metrics For Rating Banks Globally: Methodology And Assumptions, July 17, 2013 Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Revised Market Risk Charges For Banks In Our Risk-Adjusted Capital Framework, June 22, 2012 Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011 Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Banks: Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011 Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Bank Capital Methodology And Assumptions, Dec. 6, 2010 General Criteria: Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks, Sept. 14, 2009 Ratings List Ratings Affirmed B&N Bank Counterparty Credit Rating Senior Unsecured B&N Bonds D.A.C. Senior Unsecured* B/Stable/B B B *Dependent participant: B&N Bank. Additional Contact: Industrial Ratings Europe; Corporate_Admin_London@spglobal.com Certain terms used in this report, particularly certain adjectives used to express our view on rating relevant factors, have specific meanings ascribed to them in our criteria, and should therefore be read in conjunction with such criteria. Please see Ratings Criteria at www.standardandpoors.com for further WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JUNE 29, 2017 5
information. Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at www.globalcreditportal.com and at spcapitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on the S&P Global Ratings' public website at www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following S&P Global Ratings numbers: Client Support Europe (44) 20-7176-7176; London Press Office (44) 20-7176-3605; Paris (33) 1-4420-6708; Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-225; Stockholm (46) 8-440-5914; or Moscow 7 (495) 783-4009. WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JUNE 29, 2017 6
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