We see several positive factors in Regal s outlook. First, the revenue per available room (RevPAR) of its hotel business is expected to see 5-10% YoY recovery this year, which will likely drive much higher profit recovery in this segment on the back of operating leverage. Second, its total net profit is likely to rebound significantly with much more profit booked from the property development business. The Kau To luxury residential project is estimated to generate HK$3bn in pretax profit (equivalent to 48% of its market cap) after the completion in 2018 of P&R Holdings, a 50-50 joint venture between Paliburg [0617 HK] and Regal, which will be the key growth driver starting in FY18. Third, Regal started buying back shares early this month, with the shares repurchased accounting for 0.5% of o/s shares month-to-date. Currently, Regal is trading at 0.37x its adjusted book value of HK$19.16. COMPANY UPDATE REGAL HOTELS INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED [0078.HK; HK$7.00; NOT RATED] - Hotel business recovering. Eyes on upcoming luxury residential development. Market Cap: US$800m; Free Float: 33%; 3-month Average Daily Turnover: HK$7.9m Analyst: Rachel Chui Tel: 3698 6391 Email: rachelchui@chinastock.com.hk Hotel segment: Growing portfolio scale + recovery of room rates. Regal Hotels own 8 hotels through Regal REIT [1881 HK], in which it has a stake of 74.6%. On top of these 8 hotels, a new iclub hotel in Ma Tau Wai (owned by P&R Holdings), which received its license in May 2017, is an acquisition possibility from P&R Holdings to Regal REIT (LOI signed between both). Another 2 hotels in Hong Kong are under development in Mong Kok (2018 completion, 288 rooms) and Sheung Wan (2019 completion, 98 rooms). Skycity, the new project awarded by the Airport Authority in Feb 2017 for a consideration of HK$2,189m, is going to be an integrated development project comprising hotel (1,200 guest rooms expected), office and retail. The construction of the hotel project is presently anticipated to be completed within 4 years. Management expects the revpar in FY17 to grow 5-10% YoY, owing to the recovery in tourist arrivals. Kau To, a sizable luxury residential project with low land cost to potentially drive profit growth starting FY18. The total project profit before tax may reach HK$3bn (under P&R, a 50-50 joint venture between Paliburg and Regal) if all units are sold (GFA 349,485 sq ft, 136 apartments and 24 luxury homes). Sales will be launched after completion in 2018. This project, Sha Tin Town Lot No. 578, was awarded in Sep 2013, at a cost of HK$6,800/sq ft. The latest land lot sold in Kau To is Sha Tin Town Lot No. 614, awarded to Cheung Kong with a land cost of HK$ 8,001/sq ft. Most of the lots in this area were sold in the price range of HK$8,000-10,000. Recent first- and second-hand transactions in the area amounted to over HK$30,000/sq ft. This is positive for Regal with the low land cost and the rising ASP in the luxury residential market. 26 June, 2017 [REGAL HOTELS INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED ] 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Daily turnover (HK$ 000) - RHS Source: Bloomberg, CGIS Research Share price (HK$) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Other property development projects to gradually contribute profit over the coming two years The pre-sold value of the project in Sham Shui Po in cooperation with the URA, which will be booked in FY17 or FY18, will amount to over HK$0.7bn. Two mixed-use projects are underway in Chengdu and Tianjin in the mainland. Completion of these developments will be in stages from FY17 onwards. Total presale value of the two projects is HK$2.2bn. The total profit attributable to Regal is estimated to be HK$0.3bn. Inventory of residential units for sale includes 14 houses in Regalia Bay, Stanley, and 23 houses in Casa Regalia, Yuen Long. Total potential sales value could reach HK$1.6bn. Recently Regal acquired an urban redevelopment site on Queen s Road West for a total consideration of HK$0.5bn, which is intended for commercial/residential development. Other potential acquisition targets nearby are also under consideration. Huge hidden value of its hotel assets: Currently, its hotel assets account for 55% of Regal s gross assets, and the property development business represents 22.6% of the total. Regal s book value per share is HK$12.9, but the fair value will increase to HK$19.16 if the hotel assets are priced at market value, according to the Company. Although Regal management declined to comment on the potential disposal of any of its hotel assets, we see huge potential to unlock the value of the Company given that many Mainland Chinese investors are still seeking quality property assets in Hong Kong. 0 1
Comfortable financial position: On a consolidated basis, Regal s net debt/equity ratio may look high at 72%. However, about 62.3% of its gross debt is at the Regal REIT level. Therefore, the actual debt at the Regal level is much lower, which explains why there is room for the Company to launch a share buyback. The situation will continue to improve significantly once we see a strong cash contribution from the sale of its property projects. Risk factors: Weakness in Hong Kong tourism industry; property price risk; and interest rate hikes. Company background: Regal, through its subsidiaries, is principally engaged in business undertaken through Regal REIT, hotel operation and management businesses, asset management of Regal REIT, property, including those undertaken through a joint venture in P&R Holdings, aircraft ownership business, and other s, including financial asset s. Figure 1: Company structure Regal Hotels International (0078 HK) 74.60% 50% Regal REIT (1881 HK) - Hotel ownership & acquisition P&R Holdings Hotel brand building - Regalia Bay Hotel project at Skycity/QRW development project Aircraft leasing 64.30% 8 Regal Hotels in HK Development projects in HK Cosmopolitan International Holdings (0120 HK) Development projects in Mainland China Figure 2: Recent share buyback Date No. of shares Market closing price (HK$) 05 June 2017 260,000 6.53 06 June 2017 228,000 6.72 15 June 2017 506,000 6.97 16 June 2017 364,000 7.11 19 June 2017 684,000 7.12 21 June 2017 544,000 7.01 22 June 2017 1,454,000 7.01 23 June 2017 828,000 7.00 Total (Month to date) 4,868,000 o/s shares before share buyback 915,568,333 Share buyback as a percentage of o/s shares 0.5% Figure 3: Recovering overnight visitors to Hong Kong 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Source: WIND Info, CGIS Research Overnight visitors to HK (YoY change) 2
Figure 4: Hotel performance RevPAR (HK$) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Initial Hotels 949 989 867 838 Chg (YoY) - 4.2% -12.3% -3.3% iclub Wan Chai Hotel 1,270 1,176 964 937 Chg (YoY) - -7.4% -18.0% -2.8% iclub Sheung Wan Hotel - 794 757 727 Chg (YoY) - - -4.7% -4.0% iclub Fortress Hill Hotel - 619 490 548 Chg (YoY) - - -20.8% 11.8% Average room rate (HK$) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Initial Hotels 1,044 1,071 1,006 974 Chg (YoY) - 2.6% -6.1% -3.2% iclub Wan Chai Hotel 1,208 1,176 955 951 Chg (YoY) - -2.6% -18.8% -0.4% iclub Sheung Wan Hotel - 882 819 813 Chg (YoY) - - -7.1% -0.7% iclub Fortress Hill Hotel - 753 609 616 Chg (YoY) - - -19.1% 1.1% Average Occupancy (%) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Initial Hotels 90% 92% 86% 86% iclub Wan Chai Hotel 100% 100% 100% 98% iclub Sheung Wan Hotel - 90% 92% 89% iclub Fortress Hill Hotel - 82% 81% 89% Avg. occup. Rate in HK - - 86% 87% 3
Figure 5: P&L (Dec year-end) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 HK$ m HK$ m HK$ m HK$ m REVENUE 3,570.0 2,298.6 2,471.8 2,617.1 Cost of sales (2,387.7) (1,200.0) (1,349.7) (1,428.7) Gross profit 1,182.3 1,098.6 1,122.1 1,188.4 Other income and gain, net 122.3 169.5 168.6 112.9 Fair value gains/(losses) on financial assets at fair value through profit or loss, net (48.8) 42.3 14.3 (46.8) Fair value losses on properties, net (1.0) 7.0 (4.7) (41.4) Fair value gain upon reclassification of a property held for sale to an property - 58.0-58.5 Gain on bargain purchase - 35.0 - - selling and marketing expenses - - (3.2) (7.6) Realisation of hedge reserve (1.0) - - - Administrative expenses (196.5) (250.0) (250.8) (276.9) OPERATING PROFIT BEFORE DEPRECIATION 1,058.3 1,160.4 1,046.3 987.1 Depreciation (401.2) (453.5) (511.2) (530.3) OPERATING PROFIT 657.1 706.9 535.1 456.8 Finance costs (300.2) (332.6) (330.3) (395.4) Share of profits and losses of: Joint ventures (5.4) (20.9) 14.2 233.1 Associates (5.7) 96.7 (22.2) (12.4) PROFIT BEFORE TAX 345.8 450.1 196.8 282.1 Income tax (55.3) 6.6 (36.9) (41.3) AFTER TAX PROFIT 290.5 456.7 159.9 240.8 Attributable to: Equity holders of the parent 256.9 410.3 119.0 213.7 MI 33.6 46.4 40.9 27.1 Core profit 306.7 268.0 109.4 243.4 EARNINGS PER ORDINARY SHARE ATTRIBUTABLE TO EQUITY HOLDERS OF THE PARENT HK$0.27 HK$0.44 HK$0.13 HK$0.23 Source: Bloomberg, Company data, CGIS Research 4
Figure 6: Balance sheet FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 NON-CURRENT ASSETS HK$ m HK$ m HK$ m HK$ m, plant and equipment 13,704.2 16,052.8 15,875.6 15,330.7 Investment properties 947.0 1,074.0 1,070.0 1,026.0 Investments in joint ventures 2,664.5 3,258.5 3,327.6 3,146.8 Investments in associates 21.1 131.1 125.1 6.5 Available-for-sale s 9.1 106.8 133.4 236.6 Financial asset at fair value through profit or loss - 1.9 1.9 1.9 Other loan 5.9 - - 1,350.0 Finance lease receivables - - - 36.8 Debtors and deposits 2,344.0 1,390.0 5.4 5.4 Deferred tax assets - 62.4 79.1 94.0 Total non-current assets 19,695.8 22,077.5 20,618.1 21,234.7 CURRENT ASSETS Properties held for sale 790.6 533.5 479.4 264.6 Inventories 33.6 35.7 33.9 33.0 Debtors, deposits and prepayments 1,237.4 266.8 1,633.4 303.4 Finance lease receivables - - - 36.3 Held-to-maturity s 188.4 378.1 201.2 466.7 Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss 580.9 727.1 795.6 918.4 Other loan 6.4 13.2-500.0 Derivative financial instruments 14.2-4.7 12.8 Tax recoverable - - 3.1 0.2 Restricted cash 51.9 47.2 46.4 63.5 Pledged time deposits and bank balances 431.5 327.4 346.3 265.1 Time deposits 857.3 435.4 400.2 2,595.1 Cash and bank balances 445.8 1,008.0 780.3 1,105.6 Total current assets 4,638.0 3,772.4 4,724.5 6,564.7 CURRENT LIABILITIES Creditors, deposits received and accruals (391.0) (426.6) (424.4) (498.8) Interest bearing bank borrowings (333.5) (510.9) (279.9) (188.0) Other borrowings 0 - - (2,281.7) Derivative financial instruments - (3.4) - (5.7) Tax payable (43.0) (53.1) (36.0) (60.8) Total current liabilities (767.5) (994.0) (740.3) (3,035.0) NET CURRENT ASSETS 3,870.5 2,778.4 3,984.2 3,529.7 TOTAL ASSETS LESS CURRENT LIABILITIES 23,566.3 24,855.9 24,602.3 24,764.4 5
Figure 6: Balance sheet (con t) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 NON-CURRENT LIABILITES Creditors and deposits received (13.9) (27.8) (147.0) (135.6) Interest bearing bank borrowings (5,171.9) (6,362.1) (6,187.0) (6,170.7) Other borrowings (4,223.5) (4,234.3) (4,241.9) (4,621.3) Derivative financial instruments (4.1) - - - Deferred tax liabilities (1,041.1) (1,034.7) (1,004.8) (954.6) Total non-current liabilites (10,454.5) (11,658.9) (11,580.7) (11,882.2) Net assets 13,111.8 13,197.0 13,021.6 12,882.2 EQUITY Equity attributable to equity holders of the parent Issued capital 94.4 92.4 92.4 91.6 Reserves 11,579.7 11,741.9 11,770.6 11,736.8 Proposed final dividend 100.8 110.9 - - 11,774.9 11,945.2 11,863.0 11,828.4 Non-controlling interests 1,336.9 1,251.8 1,158.6 1,053.8 Total equity 13,111.8 13,197.0 13,021.6 12,882.2 Net debt (7,942.4) (9,289.3) (9,135.6) (9,232.4) Net debt to equity 67.45% 77.77% 77.01% 78.05% Figure 7: Segment results data FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Revenue Segment results before depreciation Revenue Segment results before depreciation Revenue Segment results before depreciation Revenue Segment results before depreciation management, and 2,003.4 942.7 2,200.9 1,034.1 2,171.3 835.3 2,156.9 792.3 1,473.5 168.4 20.0 126.5 138.9 125.0 219.8 112.7 - - - - 91.9 118.0 99.0 106.3 191.7 (3.6) 221.4 74.2 174.3 9.5 269.4 78.5 6
Figure 8: Segment results data (cont.) 5% FY13 Revenue 1% 9% FY14 Revenue 40% 55% 90% FY15 Revenue 4% 7% 5% 8% 4% 10% FY16 Revenue 84% 78% FY13 Segment results FY14 Segment results 15% 10% 6% 85% 84% FY15 Segment results FY16 Segment results 11% 11% 1% 10% 10% 7% 77% 73% 7
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Explanation on Equity Ratings BUY SELL HOLD : : share price will increase by >20% within 12 months in absolute terms share price will decrease by >20% within 12 months in absolute terms : no clear catalyst, and downgraded from BUY pending clearer signal to reinstate BUY or further downgrade to outright SELL Copyright Reserved No part of this material may be reproduced or redistributed without the prior written consent of China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Limited. China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co. Limited, CE No.AXM459 Room 3501-3507, 35/F, Cosco Tower, Grand Millennium Plaza, 183 Queen s Road Central, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong. General line: 3698-6888. 8