Global Economic Briefing: Global Monetary Aggregates February 2, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-972-783 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-4-1333 djohnson@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents US Monetary Aggregates 3-4 US Monetary Growth -7 US Savings Deposits 8 US Velocity 9 Euro Area Monetary Growth 1-13 Global Monetary Growth 14-1 Global M2 Aggregate Growth 17 February 2, 218 / Global Economic Briefing: Global Monetary Aggregates www.
47 417 377 337 297 27 217 Figure 1. MONETARY BASE* (ratio scale) US Monetary Aggregates 1/31 47 417 377 337 297 27 217 177 177 137 137 97 97 7 7 17 84 8 8 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 9 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 1 17 18 19 2 17 * Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements. Figure 2. 37 3 M1 32 (ratio scale) 3 27 2 22 2 17 37 3 32 3 27 2 22 2 17 1 1 7 7 84 8 8 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 9 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 1 17 18 19 2 Page 3 / February 2, 218 / Global Economic Briefing: Global Monetary Aggregates www.
US Monetary Aggregates 12 2 142 132 2 1 92 82 72 Figure 3. MZM* (ratio scale) 12 2 142 132 2 1 92 82 72 2 2 2 2 42 42 32 32 22 22 84 8 8 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 9 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 1 17 18 19 2 * Includes M1, savings deposits, and all money market mutual funds (individual and institutional). 14 13 1 9 8 Figure 4. M2 (ratio scale) 14 13 1 9 8 7 7 4 4 3 3 2 2 84 8 8 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 9 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 1 17 18 19 2 Page 4 / February 2, 218 / Global Economic Briefing: Global Monetary Aggregates www.
14 Figure. MONETARY BASE* US Monetary Growth 14 1 1 8 8 4 4 2 2 1/31-2 84 8 8 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 9 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 1 17 18 19 2-2 * Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements. 3 2 Figure. M1 3 2 2 2 1 1 - - -1 84 8 8 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 9 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 1 17 18 19 2-1 Page / February 2, 218 / Global Economic Briefing: Global Monetary Aggregates www.
2 Figure 7. MZM* US Monetary Growth 2 2 2 1 1-84 8 8 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 9 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 1 17 18 19 2 - * Includes M1, savings deposits, and all money market mutual funds (individual and institutional). Figure 8. M2 1 1 84 8 8 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 9 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 1 17 18 19 2 Page / February 2, 218 / Global Economic Briefing: Global Monetary Aggregates www.
18 1 Figure 9. CURRENCY* US Monetary Growth 18 1 14 14 1 1 8 8 4 4 2 84 8 8 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 9 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 1 17 18 19 2 2 * In M1. Excludes vault cash. Figure 1. M2-M1 1 1-84 8 8 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 9 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 1 17 18 19 2 - Page 7 / February 2, 218 / Global Economic Briefing: Global Monetary Aggregates www.
93 89 8 81 77 73 9 1 7 3 49 4 41 37 33 29 2 21 17 13 9 1 Figure 11. INTEREST-BEARING DEPOSITS (billion dollars, sa) US Savings Deposits Savings Deposits (including Money Market Deposit Accounts)* Total Small Time Deposits** 84 8 8 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 9 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 1 17 18 19 2 93 89 8 81 77 73 9 1 7 3 49 4 41 37 33 29 2 21 17 13 9 1 * Included in M2. ** Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded. 2.8 2. Figure. MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS (trillion dollars, sa) 2.8 2. 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 2. 1.8 Held By: Retail* Institutions** 2. 1.8 1. 1. 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1. 1..8..4 2 21 22 23 24 2 2 27 28 29 21 211 2 213 214 2 21 217 218 219 22.8..4 * Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded. ** Included in MZM, but not in M1 or M2. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 8 / February 2, 218 / Global Economic Briefing: Global Monetary Aggregates www.
1 14 Figure 13. M2 & GDP US Velocity 1 14 1 1 8 8 4 Q4 4 2 2-2 -4 M2 (using 3-month ma)* Nominal GDP 2 4 8 7 72 74 7 78 8 82 84 8 88 9 92 94 9 98 2 4 8 1 14 1 18 2-2 -4 2.2 2.2 2. 2.1 2. 2. 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.4 1.4 1.3 Figure 14. M2 VELOCITY (GDP/M2) Velocity Three-Month Treasury Bill Rate 2 4 8 7 72 74 7 78 8 82 84 8 88 9 92 94 9 98 2 4 8 1 14 1 18 2 Q4 18 1 14 1 8 4 2-2 Page 9 / February 2, 218 / Global Economic Briefing: Global Monetary Aggregates www.
Figure. Euro Area Monetary Growth ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: KMAJEUROM1 KEEP command attempted on missing data 2-2-218 - :18:32 3 2 2 Figure 1. M2 MONETARY AGGREGATES*: EUROZONE France (=8.8) Greece (=.9) Ireland (=4.4) Portugal (Nov=1.4) Germany (=4.) Italy (Nov=4.) Netherlands (May=-1.2) Spain (=1.7) 3 2 2 1 1 - - -1-1 - - -2-2 -2 27 28 29 21 211 2 213 214 2 21 217 218-2 * Includes currency in circulation. Source: Bank of Greece, Duetsche Bundesbank, Banque de France, Banco de Portugal, Banca d Italia, Banco de Espana, De Nederlandsche Bank, Central Statistics Office Ireland, and Haver Analytics. Page 1 / February 2, 218 / Global Economic Briefing: Global Monetary Aggregates www.
4 4 Figure 17. M3 MONETARY AGGREGATES*: EUROZONE Euro Area Monetary Growth 4 4 3 3 2 France (=7.4) Greece (=.7) Ireland (=1.7) Portugal (Nov=9.2) Germany (=4.3) Italy (=4.3) Netherlands (May=-1.1) Spain (=.8) 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 - - -1-1 - - -2-2 27 28 29 21 211 2 213 214 2 21 217 218-2 -2 * Includes currency in circulation. Source: Bank of Greece, Duetsche Bundesbank, Banque de France, Banco de Portugal, Banca d Italia, Banco de Espana, De Nederlandsche Bank, Central Statistics Office Ireland, and Haver Analytics. 2 Figure 18. MONETARY AGGREGATES*: EUROZONE M1 (8.) M2 (.1) M3 (4.) 2 1 1-2 2 27 28 29 21 211 2 213 214 2 21 217 218 - * Includes currency in circulation. Source: European Central Bank and Haver Analytics. Page 11 / February 2, 218 / Global Economic Briefing: Global Monetary Aggregates www.
3 2 Figure 19. Euro Area Monetary Growth MONETARY AGGREGATES*: GERMANY (yearly percent change, sa) M1 (7.) M2 (4.) M3 (4.3) 3 2 2 2 1 1-23 24 2 2 27 28 29 21 211 2 213 214 2 21 217 218 - * Includes currency in circulation. Source: Duetsche Bundesbank and Haver Analytics. 2 Figure 2. MONETARY AGGREGATES*: FRANCE M1 (.8) M2 (8.8) M3 (7.4) 2 1 1 - - -1 23 24 2 2 27 28 29 21 211 2 213 214 2 21 217 218-1 * Includes currency in circulation. Source: Banque de France and Haver Analytics. Page / February 2, 218 / Global Economic Briefing: Global Monetary Aggregates www.
2 Figure 21. Euro Area Monetary Growth MONETARY AGGREGATES*: ITALY M1 (8.) M2 (4.) M3 (4.3) 2 1 1 Nov - - -1 2 2 27 28 29 21 211 2 213 214 2 21 217 218-1 * Includes currency in circulation. Source: Banca d Italia and Haver Analytics. 3 2 2 Figure 22. MONETARY AGGREGATES*: SPAIN M1 (13.7) M2 (1.7) M3 (.8) 3 2 2 1 1 - - -1 27 28 29 21 211 2 213 214 2 21 217 218-1 * Includes currency in circulation. Source: Banco de Espana and Haver Analytics. Page 13 / February 2, 218 / Global Economic Briefing: Global Monetary Aggregates www.
3 3 24 Figure 23. MONETARY AGGREGATES*: UNITED KINGDOM Global Monetary Growth M1 (.1) M2 (2.9) M3 (.) 3 3 24 18 18-89 9 91 92 93 94 9 9 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 1 17 18 19 2 - * Includes currency in circulation. Source: Central Statistical Office. 18 Figure 24. M2*: CANADA M1 (7.7) M2 (.) M3 (4.) 18 9 9 3 3-3 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 9 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 1 17 18 19 2-3 * Includes curreny in circulation. Source: Bank of Canada/Haver Analytics. Page 14 / February 2, 218 / Global Economic Briefing: Global Monetary Aggregates www.
1 14 Figure 2. JAPAN: M2 PLUS CDs* Global Monetary Growth Z 1 14 1 1 8 M2 Plus CDS (3.) 8 4 4 2 2-2 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 9 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 1 11 13 14 1 17 18 19 2-2 Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy. * In yen. Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy. Source: Bank of Japan. 4 3 Figure 2. CHINA: MONETARY AGGREGATES* 4 3 3 3 2 2 M1 (11.8) M2 (8.2) 2 2 1 1 21 22 23 24 2 2 27 28 29 21 211 2 213 214 2 21 217 218 219 22 * In yuan. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. Page / February 2, 218 / Global Economic Briefing: Global Monetary Aggregates www.
3 2 Figure 27. MONETARY AGGREGATES*: AUSTRALIA Global Monetary Growth 3 2 2 M1 (.) M3 (4.) 2 1 1 - - -1-1 - -2 2 21 22 23 24 2 2 27 28 29 21 211 2 213 214 2 21 217 218 219 22 - -2 * Includes currency in circulation. Source: Reserve Bank of Austrailia. Page 1 / February 2, 218 / Global Economic Briefing: Global Monetary Aggregates www.
2 2 Figure 28. Global M2 Aggregate Growth M2 MONETARY AGGREGATES*: GLOBAL** 2 2 M2 (1.4) 1 1 - - -1 27 28 29 21 211 2 213 214 2 21 217 218-1 * Include currency in circulation and are computed in US dollars. The individual exchange rate to dollar is based on end of month values. ** Global includes China, Euro Area, Japan and United States. Source: People s Bank of China, ECB, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve Board and Haver Analytics. Page 17 / February 2, 218 / Global Economic Briefing: Global Monetary Aggregates www.
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