KEC International (KECIN) 245

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Result Update Rating matrix Rating : Buy Target : 292 Target Period : 12-15 months Potential Upside : 19% What s changed? Target Changed from 182 to 295 EPS FY18E Changed from 14 to 14.4 EPS FY19E Introduced at 18.4 Rating Unchnaged Quarterly performance Q4FY17 Q4FY16 YoY (%) Q3FY17 QoQ (%) Revenue 2,849.2 2,558.6 11.4 1,912.3 49. EBITDA 31.1 222.9 35.1 181.8 65.6 EBITDA (%) 1.6 8.7 186 bps 9.5 16 bps PAT 145.5 79.8 82.3 62.6 132.5 Key financials Crore FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Net Sales 8,421.6 8,59.3 9,81.5 11,44.1 EBITDA 679.3 817.9 939.9 1,112.6 Net Profit 231.1 329.5 369.6 473.6 EPS ( ) 9. 12.8 14.4 18.4 Valuation summary FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E P/E 27 19. 17. 13.2 Target P/E 32.8 23. 2.5 16. EV / EBITDA 12.5 1.6 9.2 7.8 P/BV 3.9 3.3 2.8 2.4 RoNW (%) 14.3 17.4 16.7 18.1 RoCE (%) 15.3 16.1 17.2 18.7 Stock data Particular Amount Market Capitalization 6273.2 Crore Total Debt (FY17) 3124 Crore Cash and Investments (FY17) 129.6 Crore EV 6143 crore 52 week H/L 155/ 5 Equity capital 51.4 Crore Face value 2 Price performance 1M 3M 6M 12M KEC International Ltd 17.3 56.7 69.9 2.3 Jyoti Structure 5.2 (3.5) (27.9) (5.1) Kalpataru Power 3.8 17.4 13. 63.6 Research Analyst Chirag J Shah shah.chirag@icicisecurities.com Firing on all cylinders May 22, 217 KEC International (KECIN) 245 KEC International reported strong Q4FY17 results. Key positive takeaways were higher-than-expected EBITDA margins and muted finance costs that drove profitability despite in line revenues. KEC has exceeded its guidance on the margins and profitability front The topline increased 11.1% YoY to 2849.2 crore, a tad below our estimate of 2964 crore. KEC reported strong growth in railways segment wherein revenues grew 312% for Q4FY17 and 112.4% YoY for FY17. Power T&D business revenues grew 5% YoY to 232 crore whereas SAE Tower revenues declined 2.6% YoY on account of translation losses on the back of rupee appreciation Total order inflow and order backlog for FY17 was at 12385 crore and 12631 crore, respectively. The company is also favourably placed in orders worth 3312 crore EBITDA margins came in at 1.6% vs. our estimate of 9.2%. This was on account of lower raw material costs and decline in sub contracting & erection expenses during the quarter. Key things to watch, going ahead, would be the management guidance on FY18E margins given higher exit rate for Q4FY17 margins Strong working capital management led to 9.7% decline in finance costs to 63.7 crore coupled with a decline of 115 crore of debt YoY at 2736 crore. Consequently, PAT of 145 crore came in above our estimates of 116 crore Topline visibility strong, margins continue to surprise KEC has witnessed strong order inflows in FY17 to the tune of 123 crore, up 42% YoY. The outlook seems stronger as it is L1 in orders to the tune of 3312 crore. The management commentary also suggests that, going ahead, there are strong business opportunities emerging from SEBs (West Bengal, AP, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Odisha). We believe these will compensate the moderation of ordering from Power Grid. The consolidated order book was at 126 crore, which will ensure 16.2% revenue CAGR in FY17-19E. Going ahead, we expect order inflow run rate to range at 11-12 crore for FY18E-19E. Also, we expect the consolidated order backlog to be at 1433 crore by FY19E on the back of strong execution in power T&D & railways business. New business segments scaling handsomely The current order book in the railways was at 15 crore coupled with strong revenue visibility & business pipeline. During Q4FY17, the segment revenues were at 26 crore vs. 5 crore in Q4FY16. Solar business has also registered 71% YoY growth in revenues in FY17 while the management is pretty confident of clocking 3x FY17 revenue growth in FY18. The new entry in the civil business (industrial & residential segment) has exhibited a strong order intake of 227 crore. It is expected to register profitable growth in FY18E. In sweet spot across all parameters; maintain BUY The key hallmark of the FY17 financial performance was the robust improvement in working capital and significant decline in debt levels (from 3892 crore to 2736 crore in FY17) in spite of flattish sales. Management efforts in improving margins to 9.3% seem commendable. With a strong order book, we believe KEC will be able to report 2% PAT CAGR in FY17-19E, resulting in RoEs reaching 18% in FY19E from 14.3% in FY16. We raise the fair value to 295/share (16x FY19E EPS) and rate the stock as BUY. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research

Variance analysis Q4FY17 Q4FY17E Q4FY16oY (Chg %) Q3FY17oQ (Chg %) Comments Revenue 2,849.2 2,964.6 2,558.6 11.4 1,912.3 49. Revenues were a tad below estimates on account of YoY deceline in SAE and Other Income 11.4 5. 1.1 934.5 7. 63. Employee Expenses 186.4 196.1 168.1 1.9 185.7.4 Raw Material Expenses 1,479. 1,551.6 1,356.2 9.1 842.6 75.5 Other Operating Expenses 388.6 327.9 278.9 39.3 242.9 6. Erecting and Contracting Expenses 494.1 614.8 532.6-7.2 459.3 7.6 EBITDA 31.1 274.1 222.9 35.1 181.8 65.6 EBITDA Margin (%) 1.6 9.2 8.7. 186 bps 9.5 16 bps Margins were above estimates on account of lower subcontracting expenses and strong execution in railways business Depreciation 4.8 15.4 21.7 88. 29.8 36.7 Interest 63.7 85.2 7.5-9.7 58.3 9.1 PBT 28.1 75. 131.7 57.9 1.6 16.8 Total Tax 62.5 62.5 51.9 2.4 38. NM PAT 145.5 116.1 79.8 82.3 62.6 132.5 Margin beat and muted finance costs led to PAT beat Key Metrics Order inflows 3,75. 3,. 1,429 162.4 2,7. 38.9 Order inflows were higher than estimates Order backlog 1235 12 9449 31 11186 1.4 Backlog and execution cycle ensures reasonable visibility, going ahead Change in estimates FY18E FY19E ( Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments Revenue 1,244.8 9,82.3-4.3-11,491.3 - Strong order wins in FY16-17 and lower execution cycle will lead to 1% revenue CAGR for KEC in FY17-19E EBITDA 934.1 94.4.7-1,118. - We have revised our margin estimates for FY17E and FY18E on the upside EBITDA Margin (%) 9. 9.5 48 bps - 9.6 - PAT 358.9 369.9 3.1-472.7 - PAT has been revised more than EBITDA on account of higher effective tax rate EPS ( ) 14. 14.4 2.8-18.4 - Assumptions Current Earlier FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E Order Inflow growth 6.2 41.7-6.9 7. 1.6 - Order Backlog growth -8.3 33.7 13.4 5.6 5.5 - Revenue growth.6.8 14.2 17.2 15.5 - EBITDA Margins 8. 9.5 9.5 9.6 9. - ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 2

Company Analysis Order inflows, strong pipeline to support 16.2% revenue CAGR KEC has witnessed strong order inflows in FY16 to the tune of 8714 crore while FY17 has been even stronger at 42% YoY growth at 1235 crore. The outlook seems brighter as it is L1 in orders to the tune of 3312 crore. The management commentary also suggests that, going ahead, there are strong business opportunities emerging from SEBs (West Bengal, AP, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Odisha. We believe these will compensate the moderation of ordering from Power Grid. The consolidated order book was at 126 crore, which will ensure 16.2% revenue CAGR in FY17-19E. Going ahead, we expect order inflow run rate to range at 11-12 crore for FY18E-FY19E. Also, we expect the consolidated order backlog at 1433 crore by FY19E on the back of strong execution trends in the power T&D & railways business. In terms of segmental performance, SAE suffered a decline of 2.6% YoY on the back of translation loss on account of rupee appreciation during Q4FY17. The company is on track to achieve scalability in the railway business as revenues in the quarter have grown 112.4% YoY to 446 crore coupled with margins that are a tad lower than the T&D business. KEC has a target of achieving 75 crore revenues from this segment by FY18E. Also, a pick-up in order book and execution in the solar business will drive revenues by 3x in FY18E. Exhibit 1: KEC exhibits strong order inflow trends Exhibit 2: thereby adding to order backlog and visibility ( crore) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 6586.22 7484 8482 824 8714 1235 115 123 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. -1. ( crore) 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 4 3 2 1-1 -2 (%) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Order Inflow YoY growth (%) Order backlog YoY growth (%) Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research Exhibit 3: Trend in revenues for KEC over FY12-19E ( crore) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 5814 6979 792 8468 8516 8584 982 11491 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Revenues YoY growth (%) ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 3

New business segments scaling handsomely The current order book in the railways was at 15 crore coupled with strong revenue visibility & business pipeline. During Q4FY17, segment revenues were at 26 crore vs. 5 crore in Q4FY16. The solar business also registered 71% YoY revenue growth in FY17 while the management is pretty confident of clocking 3x FY17 revenue growth in FY18. The new entry in the civil business (industrial & residential segment) has exhibited a strong order intake of 227 crore and is expected to register profitable growth in FY18E. Margins scale up commendable management confident of further improvement Crossing the 1% margin mark was a strong positive surprise in KEC s Q4FY17 results. Hence, KEC was able to beat its margin guidance and reported FY17 EBITDA margins at 9.3%. Going ahead, the management has set a 9.5% margin for FY18E on the back of a pick-up in T&D segment revenues and continued buoyancy in railways and solar business. Strong execution, margins recovery, better financial leverage to drive robust PAT CAGR of 2% (FY17-19E) Going ahead, we expect KEC to exhibit 2% CAGR in profitability over FY17-19E, which will be contributed by 17% CAGR in EBITDA and 16.2% revenue CAGR over the same period. We expect EBITDA to grow to 1118.1 crore by FY19E from 679.3 crore in FY16. Even on increased execution, interest costs growth are expected to be lower than a rise in revenues at 8% YoY, which will provide strong financial leverage gain. This, we believe, coupled with lower tax rates (35% for FY18E & FY19E vs. 41% in FY16, would to lead to PAT of 37 crore and 473 crore in FY18E and FY19E, respectively.. Exhibit 4: PAT to rise sharply on the back of strong margins recovery ( crore) 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 473 33 37 29 192 231 73 17 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 4

RoE profile to improve materially on margin recovery, decline in leverage A recovery in margins and resultant 2% CAGR in PAT in FY17-19E will help KEC improve its RoE to 16.7% and 18% in FY18E and FY19E, respectively. The RoCE is also expected to improve from 15.4% in FY16 to 19.2% in FY19E. Exhibit 5: Return ratios to bounce back strongly 25 2 15 (%) 1 5 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E ROE ROCE ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 5

Outlook and Valuation The key hallmark of the FY17 financial performance was the robust improvement in working capital and significant decline in debt levels (from 3892 crore to 2736 crore in FY17) in spite of flattish sales. The management s efforts to improve margins to 9.3% seem commendable. With a strong order book, we believe KEC will be able to report 2% PAT CAGR in FY17-19E, which will result in RoEs reaching 18% in FY19E from 14.3% in FY16. We raise the target price to 295/share (16x FY19E EPS) and have a BUY recommendation on the stock. Exhibit 6: Interest, EBITDA ratio to improve, going ahead 7 6 5 (%) 4 3 6.3 2 1 4.8 31. 29.6 26. FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 6

Recommendation History vs. Consensus 3 12. 25 1. 2 8. ( ) 15 (%) 6. 1 4. 5 2. Feb-15 May-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 May-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Mar-17. May-17 Series1 Idirect target Consensus Target Mean % Consensus with Buy Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Key events Date Event Mar-11 KEC closes FY11 with highest ever growth rate of 36% YoY in its order backlog to 78 crore Mar-12 Revenue crosses 5 crore for the first time with higehest ever PAT of 29 crore in its operating history Dec-12 KEC's order backlog crosses 1 crore mark in its operating history Mar-13 Market share in PGCIL ordering at 31% in FY13. Number of contracts won stood at 1 worth 2152 crore Mar-13 With execution of low margin orders of new SBUs, KEC's EBITDA margins fall to record lows to 4.1% in Q4FY13 Sep-13 Margins do recover to 6.3% in Q2FY14 after dismal perfomance of Q4FY13. However, going ahead, consistency is the key Nov-13 Market share in PGCIL ordering at 16% in YTDFY14. Number of contracts won stood at 1 worth 2152 crore Apr-14 Overall market share in PGCIL orders stood at 2% while for the whole of FY14, KEC reported 14% YoY growth in order flows. The key highlight was the recovery of EBITDA margins to 6.2% in FY14 from 5.5% in FY13. The company guides for further improvement in margins and reduction in leverage Dec-14 Q3FY15 performance disappointing owing to higher-than-expected margins on the back of execution of low margins legacy orders Mar-15 Improvement in Q4FY15 performance across all parameters and mangament sets out strong guidance for FY16E Mar-16 The company continues with consistent improvement in EBITDA margins and also records strong order inflows to the tune of 8714 crore and closes the year with order backlog of 9449 crore Top 1 Shareholders Shareholding Pattern Rank Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m) (in %) Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 1 RPG Enterprises 31-Mar-17 46.6 119.7. Promoter 5.86 5.86 5.86 5.86 5.86 2 HDFC Asset Management Co., Ltd. 31-Mar-17 5.5 14.1.1 FII 6.8 6.28 6.8 6.28 6.6 3 FIL Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited 31-Dec-16 2.6 6.6. DII 25.5 25.59 25.5 25.59 26.39 4 FIL Investment Management (Singapore) Ltd. 3-Nov-16 2.6 6.6. Others 16.84 17.27 16.84 17.27 16.69 5 Life Insurance Corporation of India 31-Mar-17 2.5 6.4. 6 SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd. 31-Mar-17 2.3 6. -2.2 7 Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Limited 31-Mar-17 2. 5.2-1.7 8 Fidelity International Asset Management Company (Korea) 31-Mar-17 2. 5.1 5. 9 Goenka (Harsh Vardhan) 31-Mar-17 1.9 4.8. 1 Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P. 28-Feb-17 1.6 4.. Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research Recent Activity Buys Sells Investor name Value Shares Investor name Value Shares Fidelity International Asset Management Company (Korea) +16.7M +5.MS SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd. -7.13M -2.22M Invesco Asset Management (India) Private Limited +1.22M +.38M UTI Asset Management Co. Ltd. -6.56M -2.4M Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd. +.28M +.9M Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Limited -5.62M -1.75M HDFC Asset Management Co., Ltd. +.24M +.8M Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Ltd. -.66M -.21M BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. +.9M +.3M Principal PNB Asset Management Company Ltd. -.31M -.1M Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 7

Financial summary Profit and loss statement Crore (Year-end March) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Total operating Income 8,421.6 8,59.3 9,81.5 11,44.1 Growth (%).9 1. 15.2 16.4 Raw Material Expenses 4,148. 4,164.6 4,824.7 5,576.4 Employee Expenses 642.4 732.7 828.5 985.6 Erecting and Contracting Expenses 2,71.8 1,784.3 2,81.9 2,46.8 Administrative Expenses 974.9 1,84.9 1,244.6 1,394.8 Total Operating Expenditure 7,837. 7,766.5 8,979.7 1,417.5 EBITDA 679.3 817.9 939.9 1,112.6 Growth (%) 32.7 2.4 14.9 18.4 Depreciation 47.9 15.3 18.9 114.9 Interest 277.4 253.6 278.4 289.1 Other Income 1.3 28.9 16. 2. Exceptional Item.... PBT 364.2 487.9 568.6 728.6 Total Tax 133.1 158.4 199. 255. PAT 231.1 329.5 369.6 473.6 Adjusted PAT 231.1 347.5 369.6 473.6 Growth (%) 2.1 5.3 6.3 28.2 EPS ( ) 9. 12.8 14.4 18.4 Cash flow statement Crore (Year-end March) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Profit after Tax 231.1 329.5 369.6 473.6 Add: Depreciation 47.9 15.3 18.9 114.9 (Inc)/dec in Current Assets -478.9-865.7-834.9-1,53.9 Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions -11.8 519.1 485. 626.8 Others 3.3 3. 5. 5. CF from operating activities -31.6 88.2 128.6 161.4 (Inc)/dec in Investments. -13.4.. (Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets -34.9-5. -75. -75. Others.... CF from investing activities -34.9-18.4-75. -75. Issue/(Buy back) of Equity.... Inc/(dec) in loan funds 36.6. 1. 1. Dividend paid & dividend tax -3.9-49.4-55.6-61.8 Inc/(dec) in Sec. premium.... Others. 7.6.. CF from financing activities 275.7-49.4 44.4 38.2 Net Cash flow -6.8-141.6 98. 124.6 Opening Cash 332. 271.3 129.6 227.6 Closing Cash 271.3 129.6 227.6 352.3 Balance sheet Crore (Year-end March) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Liabilities Equity Capital 51.4 51.4 51.4 51.4 Reserve and Surplus 1,563.4 1,843.5 2,157.5 2,569.4 Total Shareholders funds 1,614.8 1,895. 2,28.9 2,62.8 Total Debt 2,52.7 2,52.7 2,62.7 2,72.7 Deferred Tax Liability.... Minority Interest / Others.... Total Liabilities 4,135.5 4,415.6 4,829.6 5,341.5 Assets Gross Block 1,383. 1,419.5 1,479.5 1,554.5 Less: Acc Depreciation 396.7 52. 61.8 725.7 Net Block 986.3 917.5 868.6 828.8 Capital WIP 16.4 3. 45. 45. Total Fixed Assets 1,2.8 947.5 913.6 873.8 Investments. 13.4 13.4 13.4 Inventory 429.8 396.9 435.6 626.7 Debtors 4,494.8 4,227.9 4,779.9 5,561.5 Loans and Advances 873.7 998.3 1,6. 1,16.8 Other Current Assets 926.1 1,967.1 2,149.6 2,184. Cash 271.3 129.6 227.6 352.3 Total Current Assets 6,995.7 7,719.8 8,652.7 9,831.2 Creditors 2,939.1 2,914.2 3,356.7 3,95.5 Provisions 97.8 72.9 1.7 136.7 Total Current Liabilities 4,28.8 4,547.9 5,33. 5,659.8 Net Current Assets 2,966.9 3,171.9 3,619.7 4,171.4 Others Assets.... Application of Funds 4,135.5 4,415.6 4,829.6 5,341.5 Key ratios (Year-end March) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Per share data ( ) EPS 9. 12.8 14.4 18.4 Cash EPS 1.9 16.9 18.6 22.9 BV 62.8 73.7 85.9 11.9 DPS 1. 1.6 1.8. Cash Per Share 1.6 5. 8.9 13.7 Operating Ratios (%) EBITDA Margin 8. 9.5 9.5 9.6 PBT / Total Operating income 4.3 5.7 5.8 6.4 PAT Margin 2.7 3.8 3.7 4.1 Inventory days 19.6 17.7 15.5 17. Debtor days 194.8 181.4 178. 178. Creditor days 127.4 125. 125. 125. Return Ratios (%) RoE 14.3 17.4 16.7 18.1 RoCE 15.3 16.1 17.2 18.7 RoIC 16.4 16.7 18.2 2.2 Valuation Ratios (x) P/E 27.1 19. 17. 13.2 EV / EBITDA 12.5 1.6 9.2 7.8 EV / Net Sales 1. 1..9.8 Market Cap / Sales.7.7.6.6 Price to Book Value 3.9 3.3 2.8 2.4 Solvency Ratios Debt/EBITDA 3.7 3.1 2.8 2.4 Debt / Equity 1.6 1.3 1.2 1. Current Ratio 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Quick Ratio 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 8

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Capital Goods) CMP M Cap EPS ( ) P/E (x) RoCE (%) ( ) TP( ) Rating ( Cr) FY16 FY17E FY18E FY16 FY17E FY18E FY16 FY17E FY18E FY16 FY17E FY18E AIA Engineering 145 1,562 Buy 1334 44.3 46.5 52.1 32.7 31.2 27.8 23.3 22.1 21.4 17.5 16.2 15.9 Thermax (THERMA) 99 8 Hold 1223 29.6 2.6 27.1 33.4 47.9 36.6 15.3 9.8 11.9 14.2 9.2 1.9 KEC International (KECIN) 245 292 Buy 3881 9. 1.8 14.1 27.3 22.7 17.4 15.3 15.7 16.8 16.3 15. 16.5 L&T (LARTOU) 1724 1635 Buy 15947 51.4 52. 51.3 33.5 33.1 33.6 1.1 1.1 11.6 12.5 12.2 13.6 Greaves Cotton (GREAVE) 16 176 hold 394 6.6 7.1 8.7 24.2 22.5 18.4 18. 24.5 26.9 19.5 2.8 23.8 VaTech Wabag (VATWAB) 675 63 Buy 2661 16.9 28.7 36.4 29. 17.1 13.5 17. 2.4 22.2 9.7 14.8 16.5 NRB Bearing (NRBBEA) 117 115 Hold 147 4.7 5.3 6.1 23. 2.4 17.8 14.1 14.9 15.8 15.2 15.7 16.2 Timken India (TATTIM) 724 645 Hold 4147 13.5 14.4 17.5 45.1 42.3 34.8 27.9 23.9 25.6 18.2 16.4 17.3 Grindwell Norton (GRINOR) 39 39 Buy 3543 9.4 11.2 12.6 33.9 28.5 25.3 22.7 25.1 26.9 15.5 17.6 18.9 RoE (%) ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 9

RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/2% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >1%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-1%; Sell: -1% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai 4 93 research@icicidirect.com ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 1

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