Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators July 215 Lutgert College Of Business 151 FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL 33965 Phone 239-59-79 www.fgcu.edu/cob/reri
Table of Contents Introduction: Regional and National Background... 3 Airport Passenger Activity... 7 Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity... 7 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity... 8 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity... 8 Tourist Tax Revenues... 9 Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties... 9 Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues, SA... 1 Single-Family Building Permits... 1 Chart 6: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County... 11 Chart 7: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County... 11 Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County... 12 Taxable Sales... 12 Chart 9: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region... 13 Chart 1: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties... 13 Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties... 14 Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment... 14 Chart 12: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment... 15 Chart 13: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment... 15 Chart 14: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment... 16 Chart 15: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment... 16 Chart 16: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment... 17 Sales of Existing Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices... 17 Chart 17: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County... 18 Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County... 18 Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County... 19 Consumer Sentiment Index... 19 Chart 2: Consumer Sentiment Index... 19 Consumer Price Index... 2 Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change... 21 Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change... 21 Population... 22 Chart 23: Coastal Counties Population Growth 199 to 213... 22 Chart 24: Inland Counties Population Growth 199 to 213... 23 Chart 25: Population Projections by County... 23 2
Dr. Chris Westley, Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-59-79 Email: cwestley@fgcu.edu Mr. Steven Scheff, Business Analyst, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-59-7315 Email: sscheff@fgcu.edu Mr. Jim Breitbach, Technical Support, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-59-7489 Email: jbreitba@fgcu.edu Copyright 215 FGCU - All rights reserved. Introduction: Regional and National Background The U.S. economy grew at 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 215, the Commerce Department reported on July 3. This figure, which is sure to be revised, fell below most economists estimates and follows a weaker first quarter growth rate of.6 percent, itself an upward revision from previous estimates that indicated contraction. While many economists project stronger growth during the remainder of 215, a Federal Reserve staff forecast inadvertently released to the public in June predicted overall growth of 1.55 percent for the year. Nonetheless, the Fed hinted in its June policy statement it sees enough strength in the labor market to justify raising its short-term interest rate target. The decision to remove policy accommodation may yet be delayed by events in China and Greece, as well as trends in retail sales and oil prices. Seasonally-adjusted regional taxable sales for April 215 were up seven percent ($126 million) over April 214. Seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues for May 215 were up three percent for the region encompassing Collier, Lee, and Charlotte counties. May 215 passenger activity for the three Southwest Florida airports was four percent higher than the May 214 figure. Another positive sign came from Realtor sales of existing single-family homes, with the three coastal counties reporting an eight percent increase from June 214 to June 215, along with increases in median prices. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for the five-county region dropped to 5.2 percent in June 215 compared to 6.1 percent a year earlier, while unemployment for the state of Florida was 5.5 percent in June 215, a decrease of eight-tenths of a percent in June 214. The national unemployment rate in June 215 was 5.3 percent, down from 6.1 percent in May 214. The June 215 national, state, and regional unemployment rates all showed improvement from the previous month. The number of long-term unemployed in the U.S. (those jobless for 27 weeks or longer) was 2.5 million in May 215, which is a 25.3 percent decrease from May 214 and 28.6 percent of all unemployed. The June Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey showed that national nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223, for the month, a decrease of 31, from May. Employment growth nationally averaged 245, per month over the last 12 months. The June employment increases included 64, in professional and business services, 4, in health care, 33, in retail trade, 22, in leisure and hospitality, 2, in financial activities, and 17, in transportation and warehousing. June decreases in employment included 4, in mining. Employment in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, information, and government showed little or no change over the month. The national consumer price index (CPI) in June 215 was only.18 percent lower than June 214. The year-to-year decline in gasoline prices has offset much of the increase in the other elements of the index. The shelter index (rental equivalence measure for homeowner costs) has risen 2.7 percent over the last 12 3
months. Medical care services increased 2.5 percent, and energy prices decreased 16.3 percent. Core inflation (all items less food and energy) increased by 1.7 percent. National housing prices increased 4.9 percent for the 2-city composite S & P Case-Shiller Home Price Index in the 12 months ending May 215. The latest statement of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) was issued on July 29th. Its key points included the following: Economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months; Household spending growth has been moderate, and the housing sector has shown additional improvement; Business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft; The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment; Inflation continues to run below the Committee s longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices, while survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable;; Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term; The Committee anticipates that it will raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2-percent objective over the medium term; When it begins to remove policy accommodation, the Committee will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 16-17, 215. The FOMC released its latest quarterly forecast for real GDP and the unemployment rate on June 17, 215, as shown in the following "box and whiskers" charts. The red boxes are the central tendency forecast, and the full range of uncertainty is reflected in the whiskers, or vertical lines. The June forecast was similar to the March forecast but reflects slightly less optimistic growth and unemployment estimates for 215. The GDP chart shows the recovery that started in 29 and that the current projections are close to the normal long-run trend ( LR ). For 215, the overall projected range is 1.7 to 2.3 percent with a central tendency range of 1.8 to 2. percent. For 216, the overall projected range is 2.3 to 3. percent with a central tendency range of 2.4 to 2.7 percent. For 217, the overall projected range is 2. to 2.5 percent with a central tendency range of 2.1 to 2.5 percent. The long-run trend for real GDP has a range of 1.8 to 2.5 percent growth with a central tendency range of 2. to 2.3 percent. Real GDP growth rates are based on the change from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of the next year. 4
Percent 4. Growth of U.S Real GDP 3. 2. 1. 2.2 2.4 2. 1.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.7 3. 2.3 2.5 2. 2.5 1.8. -1. -.1-2. -3. -3.3-4. 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 LR Year Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, June 17, 215. As shown in the following chart, the U.S. unemployment rate has continued to decline. For 215, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 5. to 5.3 percent with a central tendency range of 5.2 to 5.3 percent. For 216, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 4.6 to 5.2 percent with a central tendency range of 4.9 to 5.1 percent. For 217, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 4.8 to 5.5 percent with a central tendency range of 4.9 to 5.1 percent. Long-run unemployment is expected to be in a range of 5. to 5.8 percent with a central tendency of 5. to 5.2 percent. The projections for unemployment are for the fourth quarter of each year. 5
Percent 11. 1. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. U.S. Unemployment Rate 9.9 9.5 8.7 7.8 6.9 7. 5.7 5.3 5.2 5.5 5.8 4.8 5. 4.8 5. 4.6 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 LR Year Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, June 17, 215. The director and staff of RERI extend their sincere thanks and appreciation to the individuals and organizations who contribute to this report. These include the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council, the Economic Development Organizations of Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties, the Convention and Visitors Bureaus of Collier and Lee Counties, the regional airport authorities, the Realtors of Lee and Collier County, the University of Florida Survey Research Center, and the county and city permit offices. 6
Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Airport Passenger Activity Airport passenger activity is the sum of arrivals and departures for Southwest Florida International (RSW), Sarasota Bradenton International (SRQ), and Punta Gorda (PGD) airports. Peak seasonal activity occurs in February, March, and April, with significantly lower activity in the summer months. Charts 1, 2, and 3 illustrate the seasonality of airport passenger traffic and the changes from year to year. In May 215, passenger activity for the three Southwest Florida airports was 767,551, a four-percent increase over May 214. All three facilities reported year-to-date improvement over the prior period, resulting in a regional increase of over 28, passengers (five percent) in the five-month period ending May 31. Chart 1 shows Southwest Florida International Airport passenger activity of 62,891 in May 215, up two percent over May 214. Sarasota Bradenton Airport recorded 98,91 passengers in May 215, a two percent increase over May 214, as shown in Chart 2. Punta Gorda passenger activity amounted to 65,759 in May 215, up 27 percent over May 214, as shown in Chart 3. 1,2 Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity SW Florida International Airport (RSW) Passenger Activity 1,1 1, 9 8 212 213 214 215 7 6 5 4 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 7
Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands 175 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity Sarasota Bradenton Int'l Airport (SRQ) Passenger Activity 15 125 212 213 214 215 1 75 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 1 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity Punta Gorda Airport (PGD) Passenger Activity 9 8 7 6 5 4 215 214 212 3 2 1 213 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 8
Monthly Tourst Tax Revenue - Millions Tourist Tax Revenues Total seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues for the three coastal counties increased by over $148, (three percent) from May 214 to May 215, as shown in Charts 4 and 5. These data are based on month of occupancy. Seasonally adjusted revenues for Charlotte County in May 215 were up 12 percent over May 214. Collier County s seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues declined to $1,473,743, a drop of eight percent from May 214. Lee County s seasonally-adjusted revenues amounted to $3,56,346 in May 215, up nine percent over May 214. Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties 14. 12. Tourist Tax Revenue 211 to Present: 3 Coastal Counties Total Unadjusted Data Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 9
Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue - $ Millions Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues, SA 4. County Tourist Tax Revenue - 211 to present 3.5 3. 2.5 Lee 2. 1.5 Collier 1..5 Charlotte. Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports Single-Family Building Permits A total of 73 single-family building permits were issued in the three coastal counties in June 215, an increase of 99 (16 percent) over June 214, and 49 more than May 215. Lee County issued 337 permits in June 215, up 26 percent over June 214, as shown in Chart 6. In June 215, Collier County reported 296 permits, three percent more than June 214, as shown in Chart 7. Charlotte County issued 7 permits in June 215, an increase of 43 percent over June 214, as shown in Chart 8. Through June 3, 215, the three coastal counties have issued 3,685 single-family permits, 822 (29 percent) more than during the prior year-to-date. Hendry County has issued eight permits through June 215, compared to seven during the first six months of 214. 1
25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av 213 Av 214 Av Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Jun 215 Permits Issued 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av 213 Av 214 Av Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Jun 215 Permits Issued (Logarithmic Scale) Chart 6: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County Single Family Permits Issued - Lee County 25-214 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 1 Permits Linear Trend 1 1 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Unincorporated Lee County, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach permits. Chart 7: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County 35 Single Family Permits Issued - Collier County 25-214 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 3 25 2 15 1 5 Permits Linear Trend Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Collier County permits only. 11
25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av 213 Av 214 Av Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Jun 215 Permits Issued Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County 25 Single Family Permits Issued - Charlotte County 25-214 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 2 15 1 Permits Linear Trend 5 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Charlotte County permits only. Taxable Sales Taxable sales data track consumer spending based on the latest month of merchants collections; i.e., one month earlier than the reporting month issued by the Florida Department of Revenue. Chart 9 shows both seasonally-adjusted and unadjusted taxable sales for the region. The five counties in Southwest Florida had total seasonally-adjusted taxable sales of $1,966.6 million in April 215, an increase of seven percent (or $126. million) over April 214. Charts 1 and 11 show seasonally-adjusted taxable sales for the coastal and inland counties, respectively. Lee County s taxable sales increased from $1,1.9 million in April 214 to $1,74.4 million in April 215, a seven-percent increase. Collier County s taxable sales increased from $62.2 million to $656.9 million, an increase of six percent over the same month last year. Charlotte County s taxable sales grew by seven percent from $189.8 million in April 214 to $22.4 million in April 215. Hendry County s taxable sales were up 14 percent from $25.3 million in April 214 to $29. million in April 215. Taxable sales in Glades County also rose, increasing 25 percent from $3.1 million in April 214 to $3.9 million in April 215. All cited data are seasonally-adjusted. 12
Monthly Taxabkle Sales - $ Millions Monthly Taxable Sales - $ Billons Chart 9: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region 3. Taxable Sales 211 to Present - 5 County Region 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5 Unadjusted Data Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data. Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Chart 1: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties 1,2 Coastal County Taxable Sales - 211 to Present 1, 8 Lee 6 Collier 4 2 Charlotte All Data Seasonally Adjusted Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 13
Monthly Taxable Sales - $ Millions Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties 35 Inland County Taxable Sales - 211 to Present 3 Hendry 25 2 15 All Data Seasonally Adjusted 1 5 Glades Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Charts 12-16 show total persons employed and unemployed, and the unemployment rate, for each county from January 25 to June 215, on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for our five-county region improved to 5.2 percent in June 215, down from 6.1 percent in June 214, and from 5.6 percent in May 215. The regional improvement is primarily attributable to a decrease of 5,375 unemployed from June 214 to June 215. Total employed increased by only 474. Lee County's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate amounted to 4.9 percent in June 215, down from 5.9 percent in June 214 and from 5.4 percent in May 215, as shown in Chart 12. Collier County s unemployment rate was 5. percent in June 215, down from 5.7 percent in June 214 and from 5.4 percent in May 215, as shown in Chart 13. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Charlotte County improved to 5.7 percent in June 215, down from 6.6 percent in June 214 and from 6.3 percent in May 215, as shown in Chart 14. Hendry County s June 215 unemployment rate was 8.8 percent, down from 1.1 percent in June 214, and from 9.6 percent in May 215, as shown in Chart 15. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Glades County was 6.8 percent in June 215, compared to 7. percent in June 214 and 7.2 percent in May 215, as shown in Chart 16. Florida s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate dipped to 5.5 percent in June 215 from 5.7 percent in May, down.8 points from June 214. A similar pattern was observed nationally, as the seasonallyadjusted unemployment rate has declined from 6.1 percent in June 214 to 5.5 percent in May 215 to 5.3 percent in June 215. 14
Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Chart 12: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment 35 Labor Force and Unemployment: Lee County 14. 3 12. 25 1. 2 8. 15 6. 1 4. 5 Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate 2.. Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 13: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Labor Force and Unemployment: Collier County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 15
Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Chart 14: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Labor Force and Unemployment: Charlotte County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 15: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Labor Force and Unemployment: Hendry County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate 18. 16. 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 16
Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Chart 16: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment 7 Labor Force and Unemployment: Glades County 12. 6 1. 5 4 3 2 1 Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate 8. 6. 4. 2.. Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Sales of Existing Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices Existing single-family home sales by a Realtor for Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties are shown in Charts 17-19. The line represents median prices plotted against the scale on the right side, and the bars represent the number of homes sold with the scale on the left side. A total of 2,227 single-family homes were sold in the three coastal counties in June 215, up eight percent over June 214, and one percent above the prior month of May 215. Lee County sales were 1,368 units in June 215, an increase of 13 percent over June 214, along with a six percent increase in the median price to $212,25 over the same period. Collier County single-family home sales were 431 units in June 215, down from 451 in June 214 and nearly equal to the May 215 figure of 43. However, the median price in Collier County was $397, in June 215, compared to $39, in June 214 and $427, in May 215. Charlotte County reported 428 single-family homes sold in in June 215, up seven percent over June 214, along with a nine percent increase in the median price over the same period. 17
Jul 213 Aug 213 Sep 213 Oct 213 Nov 213 Dec 213 Jan 214 Feb 214 Mar 214 Apr 214 May 214 Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Jun 215 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Jul 213 Aug 213 Sep 213 Oct 213 Nov 213 Dec 213 Jan 214 Feb 214 Mar 214 Apr 214 May 214 Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Jun 215 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Chart 17: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County Lee County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors 16 $25 14 12 $2 1 8 6 $15 $1 4 2 Lee Homes Sold Lee Median Sale Price $5 $ Source: Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach, Inc. Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County 6 Collier County Existing Single Family Home Sales* by Realtors $45 5 4 $4 $35 $3 3 2 $25 $2 $15 1 Collier Homes Sold Collier Median Sale Price $1 $5 $ * Does not include Marco Island. Source: Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR) www.naplesarea.com 18
Jul 213 Aug 213 Sep 213 Oct 213 Nov 213 Dec 213 Jan 214 Feb 214 Mar 214 Apr 214 May 214 Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Jun 215 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Charlotte County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors Charlotte Homes Sold Charlotte Median Sale Price $2 $18 $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Source: Florida Realtors Punta Gorda, Florida MSA; http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.html Consumer Sentiment Index Chart 2 shows monthly data and linear trend lines over the last three years for both the Florida Consumer Sentiment Index ( CSI ) reported by the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) and for the United States Index of Consumer Sentiment ( ICS ) reported by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan. Bolstered by gains in June, the long-term trend continues to be positive for both indices. The national ICS was up 5.4 points to 96.1 in June 215 from 9.7 in May 215 and from 82.5 in June 214. This essentially offsets the decline between April 215 and May 215. In the June 26, 215 Survey of Consumers, chief economist Richard Curtin noted that The remarkably favorable economic assessments documented in the recent surveys were due to two factors. An improving economy was the most important component. But the gains were so outsized that they probably reflected the acceptance of a new lower comparison standard that was based on diminished expectations for long-term economic prospects. Parsing just how much has been due to an improving economy and how much to an acceptance of diminished economic standards will be revealed by their subsequent consumption behavior. Needless to say, the answer to this question has critical implications for appropriate economic policies. The Florida Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 89.5 in June 215, up 1.6 points from the May 215 figure, and 7.3 points higher than the June 214 figure. In the Florida Consumer Sentiment Index released on June 26, 215, Survey Director Chris McCarty noted that [t]he overall gains in the Florida index in June were among older and low income households. These two demographics showed particular strength in their 19
Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 expectations about their personal finances a year from now, and were the only demographic to report their current finances being better than a year ago. In contrast, households with more than $5, in income reported a 12-point decline in their perceptions of their current personal finances. [This is] unusual given that most economic indicators that would affect upper income households remain positive. Chart 2: Consumer Sentiment Index 1 Florida and US Consumer Sentiment Indices Most Recent 3 Years and Linear Trend 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 FL CSI FL CSI Trend US ICS US ICS Trend 5 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida and Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Price Index Year-to-year changes in consumer price indices (CPI) through June 215 are shown in Chart 21. As previously observed, consumer price inflation has moderated noticeably. The latest data shows that the June 215 National CPI was.1 percent above the June 214 figure, while the U.S. Southern Region CPI actually decreased by.1 percent in that same 12-month period. The Miami-Ft. Lauderdale CPI increased by 1.2 percent between June 214 and June 215. 2
Change From Year Earlier 8% 6% 4% Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change Consumer Price Index - Percentage Change From Year Earlier Miami / Ft. Lauderdale US South Region US National 2% % -2% -4% -6% Jun-6 Jun-7 Jun-8 Jun-9 Jun-1 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Source: BLS Chart 22 shows the components of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending June 215. The largest increases since June 214 were in other goods and services (7.3 percent) and medical care (5.9 percent). Lower gasoline prices contributed to a 7.2 percent reduction in the transportation segment. Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change Miami - Fort Lauderdale CPI Components 12 month change ending June 215 Other goods and services * Medical care Housing Apparel Food and beverages Education and communication Recreation Transportation * Other goods and services: Tobacco and smoking products, personal care products and services, and miscellaneous personal goods. -1% -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% 12 Month Percentage Change Source: BLS 21
Population - Thousands Population As previously reported, the following charts show historic population growth as well as population projections recently updated by the Office of Economic and Demographic Research (EDR) working with the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). Regional population growth from 199 to 213 averaged 2.8 percent per year and is shown in Charts 23 and 24. The compound average annual rate of growth for 199 to 213 was 3.5 percent in Collier County, 2.9 percent in Lee, 2.2 percent in Glades County, and 1.7 percent each in Charlotte and Hendry Counties. Chart 25 and its accompanying table show projected population increases from 215 to 24. The regional projected population growth averages a slower 1.5 percent per year, resulting in a population increase of 5 percent for the five-county region from 213 to 24. The total 5-county population projection is 1,79,74 for 24. Lee County population is projected to grow an average of 1.8 percent per year, Collier County at 1.4 percent, and Charlotte County at.8 percent per year. Hendry County s population is projected to grow at an average of.3 percent per year and Glades County at.8 percent per year. Chart 23: Coastal Counties Population Growth 199 to 213 7 Historic Population Growth Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties 6 643 5 4 335 Lee 334 3 Collier 2 152 164 1 111 Charlotte 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 Based on results from Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 214 and UF BEBR Florida Population Studies, April 214. 22
Populaton (Thousands) Population - Thousands Chart 24: Inland Counties Population Growth 199 to 213 45 Historic Population Growth Glades and Hendry Counties 4 35 Hendry 37.8 3 25 25.8 2 15 1 7.6 Glades 12.7 5 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 Based on results from Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 214 and UF BEBR Florida Population Studies, April 214. 2, 1,8 Chart 25: Population Projections by County Population Projections 215-24 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 215 22 225 23 235 24 Glades 12,894 13,478 14,11 14,496 14,89 15,227 Hendry 38,121 39,31 39,741 4,275 4,67 4,892 Charlotte 166,34 174,121 18,958 186,962 192,774 197,729 Collier 345,1 379,59 411,368 441,93 47,69 492,533 Lee 673,826 758,621 837,828 911,479 98,632 1,44,323 Based on results from Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 214 and UF BEBR Florida Population Studies, April 214. 23