US Economic Indicators: Productivity Proxy February 28, 2018 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 4-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 4-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Productivity Proxy 1-5 February 28, 2018 / US Economic Indicators: Productivity Proxy www.
Productivity Proxy 110 Figure 1. NONFARM BUSINESS PRODUCTIVITY & PROXY 163 161 105 159 157 100 155 Nonfarm Productivity (2009=100, sa) 153 95 Real GDP/ Aggregate Weekly Hours Index: Total Private Industries 151 149 90 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics. 147 Figure 2. PRODUCTIVITY PROXIES: REAL GDP/AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS INDEX 100 98 55 96 50 Goods 94 45 Services 92 40 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics. 90 Page 1 / February 28, 2018 / US Economic Indicators: Productivity Proxy www.
100 Figure 3. Productivity Proxy NONFARM BUSINESS PRODUCTIVITY & REAL GDP PER PAYROLL EMPLOYEE 100 40 40 Real GDP Per Payroll Employee (thousand dollars) Nonfarm Business Productivity (2009=100, sa) 20 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 20 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4 Figure 4. RATIO OF GDP PER WORKER IN GOODS-PRODUCING TO SERVICES-PRODUCING 4 3 Real Nominal 3 2 2 1 1 0 48 50 52 54 56 58 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board. Page 2 / February 28, 2018 / US Economic Indicators: Productivity Proxy www.
345 305 2 Figure 5. Productivity Proxy REAL GDP OF GOODS / GOODS-PRODUCING PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (thousand dollars, saar, ratio scale) 345 305 2 225 225 185 185 145 145 105 105 25 48 50 52 54 56 58 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 25 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board, 90 Figure 6. REAL GDP OF SERVICES / SERVICE-PRODUCING PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (thousand dollars, saar, ratio scale) 90 70 70 50 50 40 48 50 52 54 56 58 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 40 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board. Page 3 / February 28, 2018 / US Economic Indicators: Productivity Proxy www.
Productivity Proxy 1 170 Figure 7. RETAIL PRODUCTIVITY PROXY: REAL CORE RETAIL SALES* DIVIDED BY RETAIL TRADE PAYROLLS (thousand 2009 dollars, saar) Dec 1 170 1 1 150 150 130 130 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 * Retail sales excluding gasoline, autos, building materials, & food services, divided by Personal Consumption Deflator. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 85 Figure 8. CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTIVITY PROXY: REAL CONSTRUCTION PUT IN PLACE* DIVIDED BY CONSTRUCTION PAYROLLS (thousands dollars, saar) 85 75 75 70 70 Dec 55 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 55 * Value of construction put in place divided by average hourly earnings in construction. Source: Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 4 / February 28, 2018 / US Economic Indicators: Productivity Proxy www.
1 Figure 9. Productivity Proxy HEALTH CARE PRODUCTIVITY PROXY: REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES ON HEALTH CARE DIVIDED BY HEALTH CARE PAYROLLS (thousand 2009 dollars, saar) Dec 1 150 150 130 130 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 5 / February 28, 2018 / US Economic Indicators: Productivity Proxy www.
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