Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Global Research Investment Update Equity - UAE Transportation and Logistics Sector 13 March, 2011 Market Data Bloomberg Code: ARMX UH Reuters Code: ARMX. DU CMP (10 Mar 2011): AED 1.80 O/S (mn) 1,464.0 Market Cap (AEDmn): 2,635.4 Market Cap (USDmn): 717.5 P/E 2011e(x): 11.72 P/Bv 2011e (x): 1.39 Price Performance 1-Yr High (AED): 2.36 Low (AED): 1.32 Average Volume ( 000): 3,173 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) -6.3-13.9 11.9 Relative (%) 2.9 0.4 22.0 Price Volume Performance 20 15 10 5 0 Source: Zawya Volume ('000) Faisal Hasan, CFA Head of Research fhasan@global.com.kw Tel.: (965) 22951270 Digvijay Tanwar, CFA Senior Financial Analyst dtanwar@global.com.kw Tel.: (965) 22951275 Global Investment House www.globalinv.net 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 ARMX (AED) BUY Target Price AED2.07 Gearing up to become emerging-market express and logistics player Geographic location and strategic advantages to continue Margins are likely to come under pressure Strong balance sheet and cash rich company Double Digit Growth in Revenues Aramex total revenue for 2010 stood at AED2.2bn, a growth of 13% over 2009. The growth is primarily driven by the freight forwarding business that rebounded in 2010 and grew by 22% as against a drop of 17% in 2009. Profits in line with our Estimates Aramex reported 4Q10 net profit of AED55.0mn (+11.0% YoY), which was in line with our estimate (+1.5%) of AED54.2mn. Net profit margin stood at 9.5% up from 9.4% reported in 4Q09. For the year 2010, earnings reached AED204.1mn, up 10.7% YoY compared to AED184.3mn for 2009, while net margins stood at 9.2%, 20bps down from 2009. Gearing up to Become Emerging-Market Express & Logistics Player The company intends to become the logistics company of the emerging markets (Africa, South Asia and Commonwealth of Independent States) and has made a series of acquisitions and partnerships in Turkey, Africa and Asia, as part of its strategy to strengthen its presence in emerging markets. Asset Light Model Offers Flexibility Aramex asset-light business model translates into conservative capital structure and offers operating flexibility. During the recession, Aramex asset-light business model allowed the company to create considerable efficiencies improving both the gross profit and net profit margins. Valuation update Upgraded to BUY, despite decrease in fair value We have changed the country risk premium from 6.5% to 7.5% amid the current unrest in the MENA region. Consequently, our fair value for Aramex has been downgraded from AED2.22/share to AED2.07/share; a downward revision of 6.6%. At the same time the ~14% fall in the company s stock price over the past three months due to negative sentiment with regard to the company s operations, has made the stock look attractive. With the stock offering an upside of 15.2% from its current market price, we upgrade our recommendation to a BUY. Investment Indicators Year 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e Revenue (AED mn) 2,080 1,961 2,212 2,450 2,720 3,012 3,306 Gross Profit (AED mn) 1,038 1,108 1,190 1,303 1,433 1,586 1,746 Net Profit (AED mn) 147 184 204 225 248 273 301 Diluted EPS (AED) 0.10 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.21 Diluted BVPS (AED) 0.96 1.09 1.22 1.30 1.37 1.45 1.53 P/E (x) 7.2 11.4 14.9 11.7 10.6 9.7 8.8 P/BV (x) 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 Source : Company Annual Reports & Global Research. Historical P/E & P/BV multiples based on respective year-end prices, while those for future years are based on current market price in the DFM as on March 10, 2011.
WACC Global Research - UAE Valuation & Outlook Assumption for Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) In order to compute the cost of equity for the DCF method, we have used the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The following assumptions have been taken in order to arrive at the DCF value of Aramex. A risk-free rate of 5.6% has been taken based on adjusted Abu Dhabi 2019 Government Bond. A market risk premium of 7.5% has been assumed - 1% higher due to ongoing political unrest in the MENA region. Since adjusted 5-year monthly Beta of Aramex is less than 1.0, we have taken a beta of 1.0. The cost of equity derived from the above assumptions using the Capital Asset Pricing Model is 13.1%. No debt is assumed in target structure as the company has negligible debt. Based on the above assumptions, the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) works out to be 13.1%. Terminal growth rate of 3.0% has been assumed. Based on our future earnings projections and the above assumptions for DCF computations, the DCF value of Aramex comes out to be AED2.10/share. Aramex - Equity Valuation by DCF (AED mn) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) Free Cash Flow 209.4 230.6 260.6 281.2 Discounted Cash Flow 189.0 184.1 184.0 175.6 Terminal Value 2876.6 Primary Value 732.8 Discounted Terminal Value 1796.3 Value of Investments 4.0 (As of 2010) Cash 554.7 (As of 2010) Debt 20.1 (As of 2010) Enterprise Value 3,087.8 Equity Value 3,067.7 Shares Outstanding (mn) 1,464.1 Per Share Value (AED) 2.10 Source : Global Research A sensitivity analysis for different estimated long-run future growth rates and weighted cost of capital is shown in table below. The table provides estimated fair values for Aramex s shares based on a range of varying inputs. Aramex - Sensitivity Analysis Terminal Growth Rate 2.07 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 12.1% 2.14 2.21 2.29 2.38 2.48 12.6% 2.05 2.12 2.19 2.27 2.35 13.1% 1.97 2.03 2.10 2.17 2.24 13.6% 1.90 1.96 2.01 2.08 2.15 14.1% 1.84 1.89 1.94 1.99 2.06 Source: Global Research January - 2011 2
Global Research - UAE Relative Valuation Method The peer group valuation is performed to compare the intrinsic value of Aramex arrived at using the DCF calculation. In order to value Aramex using this method, we have used the weighted average price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for a basket of comparable companies, which make up the peer set for Aramex. To arrive at the peer-set P/E multiple, we have computed the median P/E of the nine listed global transportation and logistics companies based on their current market prices and 2011 earnings estimates. Transportation and Logistics Sector - 2011 Estimates Country Net Margins Aramex UAE 9.2% 12.1% 9.4% 11.7 1.1 1.4 United Parcel Service, Inc. US 7.0% 46.9% 16.1% 16.9 1.3 7.5 Deutsche Post AG Germany 1.4% 20.7% 6.8% 12.2 0.3 1.6 FedEx Corporation US 3.4% 10.8% 7.8% 18.0 0.7 1.9 TNT N.V. US 8.1% 15.5% 2.5% 12.4 0.7 2.9 Expeditors International of Washington US 5.8% 20.9% 22.8% 26.2 1.5 5.1 Oesterreichische Post AG Austria 3.4% 16.6% 7.2% 12.7 NA 2.2 UTi Worldwide Inc. US 1.2% 9.7% 6.1% 19.7 0.4 2.0 Singapore Post Limited Singapore 31.5% 53.2% 16.5% 14.3 4.0 6.5 Industry Median 5.8% 16.6% 7.8% 14.3 0.9 2.2 Source: Bloomberg & Global Research ROE ROA P/E The median forward P/E for the peer set, thus arrived at, is 14.3x. On the basis of this forward P/E for the peer set and Aramex s 2011 earnings, the company s stock valuation comes to AED1.99/share. However, as the price-earnings multiple varies with time and is dependent on several factors, such as market sentiment and other qualitative factors, we have provided a lower weightage of 20% to the peer valuation method, and 80% weightage to the value arrived at using the DCF method. Valuation update Upgraded to BUY, despite decrease in fair value P/Sales We have changed the country risk premium from 6.5% to 7.5% amid the current unrest in the MENA region. Consequently, our fair value for Aramex has been downgraded from AED2.22/share to AED2.07/share; a downward revision of 6.6%. At the same time the ~14% fall in the company s stock price over the past three months due to negative sentiment as regards the company s operations, has made the stock look attractive. The stock closed at AED1.80/share on the Dubai Financial Market at the end of trading on 10 th March 2011, which implies that the weighted average value of Aramex s shares is at a premium of 15.2% to the share s current market price. We, therefore, upgrade our recommendation to a BUY. Weighted Average Share Value of Aramex (AED) Weightage Fair Value As per DCF Method 80% 2.10 As per Relative Valuation 20% 1.99 Weighted Average Share Value 2.07 Source: Global Research P/Bv March - 2011 3
Global Research - UAE Key Risks to Valuations Ongoing political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: The demonstrations that began in Tunisia and toppled Ben Ali s regime, spread to Egypt and ousted Mubarak. Now, in probably the most severe of tensions, Libya is in a state of near-civil war, with much of the country under the control of groups hostile to the rule of Colonel Gaddaffi, who is refusing to cede power and is using armed force against his own people. There have also been large-scale demonstrations in Yemen and Bahrain, in addition to smaller demonstrations in other countries in the region. With Aramex generating 70.7% of its revenues from the Middle East and Africa region, there could be a negative impact on Aramex s performance, and this is likely to heighten in line with the level and duration of uncertainty in the region. The company has had to suspend its operation in certain parts such as Bahrain and Egypt temporarily. Although operations have resumed in these places, operations in Libya and Sulaymaniah, Iraq, are yet to resume. Rising fuel prices and inflationary pressure: Beginning the last two quarters, the UAE (and other markets that Aramex operates in) experienced a reduction in inflation. However, the price are showing signs of recovery and as the world markets recover, the likelihood of an increase in cost pressures will become a reality. With transportation forming a significant cost component, as transportation prices firm up again and wage pressures start to resurface, Aramex s operating margins will get impacted. World recovery likely to reduce negotiating power with fleet providers: As the world economy recovers, previously suppressed pricing provided by fleet providers is likely to become more challenging. As a result a lack of hard assets (fleet) is likely to compromise its operating leverage. Higher competition resulting in downward pressures on margins: Leading global players are making significant inroads into the market; increased pressure on margins can be expected. March - 2011 4
Global Research - UAE Aramex Key Strengths GDP & trade driven growth trajectory expected The logistics sector is directly correlated with trade which in turn is significantly impacted by GDP growth. Higher GDP growth implies support to trade and hence growth for logistics and related services. Given the region s relatively high growth rate implies trade and hence the logistics sector can be expected to see expansion and a surge in business activity. Aramex with significant presence in the MENA region (~71% of Aramex s 2010 revenue is from the Middle East) is likely to benefit from the anticipated growth. Geographic location & strategic advantages to continue The GCC has a significant geographic advantage in that it is located strategically to serve as an efficient trade hub between the east and west. With Asia, in particular India and China, becoming a key production and manufacturing region for the rest of the world over the past decade, trade volumes between Europe and Asia have grown significantly and require efficient transport and logistics structures that the Middle East, and in particular Dubai, is likely to provide. Aramex is building its logistics base and is expected to open a 43,000m 2 warehousing facility at Dubai Logistics City in 1Q-11. The company is also increasing its presence and building warehousing facilities at Cairo, Alexandria, and Muscat which will help the company to cater to growth expected in the market. The company is also looking at acquisition targets in emerging markets (Africa, Southern Asia and Commonwealth of Independent States) that will help Aramex become a leading logistic player in the emerging markets. GCC Transport & Logistics Market Forecast, 2008 2012e in USDbn 18.2 4.9 2.8 20.0 5.4 3.4 4.8 5.0 CAGR +10.2% 22.1 6.0 4.0 5.3 5.6 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.9 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e Source: Booz & Co. Road Transport Air Freight Sea Freight Freight Forwarding Warehousing (Third-Party Logistics) 24.3 6.6 4.8 7.3 5.7 5.9 26.9 Source: Booz & Co. Strategic must for economic diversification Other than opportunities arising from the growth of global trade and enhanced regional logistics structures, a strong and sophisticated transport and logistics sector will be essential for the future economic development of countries in the Middle East. According to a Booz & Company report, logistics represents roughly 2.3% of the GDP of the GCC countries (or 4.3% of GDP excluding the oil and gas sector). Compared to the sector s average 6% contribution to GDP in the European Union, this is still quite low. Regional governments have realized this and have made significant investments in logistics infrastructure and have thus created opportunities for players in the space. Large amounts of government spending on ports, free zone airports and logistics parks have been announced. The creation of world-class infrastructure such as the Dubai World Central, Dubai Logistics Corridor (integrated between DWC - Al Maktoum International Airport, Jebel Ali Port and free zones, with an integrated sea, air and land transport infrastructure) etc. are expected to ensure continued expansion of players in the region & space. The spending on logistics infrastructure bodes well for the regional logistics player with Aramex well positioned to benefit from the developments in the region. March - 2011 5
Global Research - UAE Gearing up to Become Emerging-Market Express & Logistics Player The company intends to become the logistics company of the emerging markets (Africa, South Asia and Commonwealth of Independent States) and has made a series of acquisitions and partnerships in Turkey, Africa and Asia, as part of its strategy to strengthen its presence in emerging markets. Recent Acquisitions Company Country Description Acquisitions Aquaship Agencies Ireland An Irish-owned Liner Agent and Freight Forwarding company with offices in Dublin and Cork. OneWorld Courier Kenya A leading courier and freight operator serving Kenya, East Africa and global markets. In-Time Couriers Kenya A domestic delivery firm in Nairobi. Aramex Turkey Increased its stake to 100% Avanti Company Malaysia A leading express courier company (majority stake) Expo Express Services Bangladesh A leading express courier company (majority stake) Joint Venture Masan Services Vietnam A fully owned subsidiary of Masan Corporation, to launch advanced logistics solutions. Will allow the company to introduce its products and services in Vietnam by 2011. Source: Company Disclosures Low debt and a significant cash balance (AED555mn at the end of 2010) provide management with the cushion necessary to purse the strategy of inorganic growth through acquisitions, should opportunities arise. According to management, the company seeks small- and medium-sized acquisitions (USD5-10mn) within a total acquisition program ranging around USD100mn over the next two years. We believe this strategy of taking small steps to gain a foothold in a new market or to build on existing presence makes the integration process easier to manage, without placing undue financial strain on the company and at the same time gaining access to newer under-served markets. Geographic contribution favoring Asia The geographic breakdown as at the end of 2010 has slightly changed from 2009; the MENA contribution to total revenues dropped to 70.7% compared to 74.2% a year ago, while Asia contribution has increased to 8.7% from 6.1% a year ago. This is a significant improvement, and given the management commitment towards expansion in Asia and Africa, we expect to see its revenue contribution expanding going forward. These targeted regions offer substantial volume and earnings growth potentials and should reflect positively on the company s performance, as they materialize. Change in Geographic Distribution 2009 2010 18.2% 18.4% 74.2% 1.5% 6.1% 70.7% 2.1% 8.7% Middle East & Africa Europe North America Asia Source: Company data March - 2011 6
AED mn Global Research - UAE Aramex Overview & Forecast Revenue to record CAGR of 10.6% during 2010-14 Aramex total revenue for 2010 stood at AED2.2bn, a growth of 13% over 2009. The growth is primarily driven by the freight forwarding business that rebounded in 2010 and grew by 22% as against a drop of 17% in 2009. For 4Q10, total revenues reached AED579.6mn (+6.3% QoQ, +10.4% YoY), marginally lower than our estimate of AED596.6mn. Aramex s Total Revenue and Growth (2009-2014F) 3,500 15% 3,000 2,500 2,000 10% 5% 1,500 1,000 500 0% -5% - -10% 2009 2010 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) Total Revenues YoY Growth Source: Company data, Global Research Both the express and freight forwarding businesses witnessed double digit YoY growth. Meanwhile, the logistics business witnessed a 13.5% YoY decline. The freight forwarding segment witnessed the highest revenue growth of 16.1% YoY, consequently its contribution to total revenues reached 41.7% compared to 39.6% in 4Q09. Change in Product Distribution 2009 2010 38.7% 41.8% 15.4% 15.0% 6.3% 4.7% 32.0% 1.6% 6.0% 31.2% 1.4% 6.1% International express Freight forwarding Domestic express Logistics revenue Publications and distribution Others Source: Company data, Global Research Going forward we expect, Aramex s revenue to report a CAGR growth of 10.6% during 2010-14. Domestic and international express segment revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.9% and 9.7% respectively during the forecast period while logistics and freight forwarding is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.5% and 9.7% respectively. Asset Light Model Offers Flexibility Aramex asset-light business model translates into conservative capital structure and offers operating flexibility. During the recession, Aramex asset-light business model allowed the company to create considerable efficiencies improving both the gross profit and net profit margins. During 2009, when much of the world was under severe crisis, Aramex s asset light model helped the company generate better margins. Gross profit margin jumped to 56.5% from 49.9% in 2008 while net profit margin jumped at 9.4% from 7.1% in 2008. March - 2011 7
AED mn 2009 2010 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2009 2010 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) AED mn AED mn Global Research - UAE Margins expected to squeeze; albeit marginally Gross profits reached AED310.2mn (7.2% YoY) in 4Q10 with margins standing at 53.5%. For the full year gross profit and margins to AED1,190.2mn and 53.8% compared to AED1,108.0mn and 56.5% in 2009. This change in margins is a result of the change in product mix, whereby the freight forwarding business, which is the lower margin (28.5% in 2010) business, has recently started to increase at a faster pace especially following the witnessed drop during 2009. Gross Profit and Margins (2009-2014F) Operating Profit and Margins (2009-2014F) 2,000 57.0% 350 10.6% 1,600 1,200 56.0% 55.0% 300 250 200 10.4% 10.2% 10.0% 800 400-54.0% 53.0% 52.0% 150 100 50-9.8% 9.6% 9.4% 9.2% Gross Profit Gross Profit Margin Operating Profit Operating Profit Margin Source: Company data, Global Research Logistics and domestic express are the highest gross margins segments. Logistics margins stood at 79.5% in 2010, 270bps up from 2009 while Domestic express margins were 77.6%, 60bps down from 2009. International express and freight forwarding margins stood at 66.8% and 28.5% respectively. Going forward, we see margins easing lower in the longer term as transportation costs start to rise again and as wage pressures mount. Net income Aramex reported 4Q10 net profit of AED55.0mn (+17.7% QoQ, +11.0% YoY), which was in line with our estimate of AED54.2mn. Net profit margin stood at 9.5% up from 9.4% reported in 4Q09. For the year 2010, earnings reached AED204.1mn, up 10.7% YoY compared to AED184.3mn for 2009, while margins stood at 9.2%, 20bps down from 2009. Going forward, we expect the company to register a CAGR growth of 10.2% in the net income during 2010-14. Aramex s Net Profit and Net Profit Margins (2009-2014F) 300 200 100-2009 2010 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) Net Profit Net Margin % 10.6% 10.5% 10.4% 10.3% 10.2% 10.1% 10.0% Source: Company data, Global Research Capital expenditure Aramex s capital expenditure on property, plant and equipment for 2010 touched AED136.9mn, an increase of 162% over 2009. The expenditure mainly comprised investments on warehousing facility at Dubai Logistics City. Further, the company spent another AED12.5mn and AED25.7mn on joint ventures and acquisitions (non-controlling interests and subsidiaries). Although the management has stated a total acquisition program ranging around USD100mn over the next two years and around USD60mn on its Logistics warehouse, part of which it has already spent, we believe, the company will be incurring a capex, which include acquisitions and other investments, in the range of AED100-110mn in each of the next four years. March - 2011 8
Global Research - UAE Strong balance sheets and cash rich company Aramex enjoys a strong balance sheet with a cash balance of AED554mn with negligible debt. Excluding the amount of debt (AED20mn at the end of December 2010) the net cash position is still in a comfortable zone at AED534mn. The strong cash position has helped the company to go through a series of acquisitions lately and help it to build a more geographically robust network capable of providing comprehensive logistics and transportation services. Dividends Aramex has declared a cash dividend of 7.5% in 2010, amounting to ~54% dividend payout ratio. The company has been able to generate regular free cash flow over the past few years. We forecast Aramex will generate an average annual free cash flow of AED245mn over the next four years. As the cash balance increases, we believe that the company will continue to distribute dividends in the future as well. We have assumed a ~60% dividend payout ratio for our forecast period. The way forward Aramex has emerged as a well-rounded Express and Logistics player with a clear strategy and focused approach towards expansion. In terms of its current operations, its Logistics and Domestic Express divisions are expected to drive future growth. Simultaneously, global economic recovery provides a significant upside for its International Express and Freight Forwarding segments. Although a global recovery is resulting less favorable pricing by transport providers, volumes are on the rebound which is likely to result in protected margins. Overall, Aramaex exhibits an asset-light balance sheet resulting in relatively high financial and operational flexibility. The company is cash-rich and has now cleared charted-out inorganic growth as its way forward towards greater reach into emerging markets. Despite acquisitions, its cash balance indicates that a regular dividend payout is likely to continue. March - 2011 9
Ratio Analysis Cash Flow Balance Sheet Income Statement Global Research - UAE Financial Statements (AED mn) 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e Total Revenues 2,080 1,961 2,212 2,450 2,720 3,012 3,306 Cost of Services (1,042) (853) (1,022) (1,147) (1,287) (1,426) (1,560) Gross Profit 1,038 1,108 1,190 1,303 1,433 1,586 1,746 Other operating expenses (377) (413) (445) (485) (539) (596) (655) Selling expenses (99) (99) (108) (115) (120) (136) (149) General and administrative expenses (387) (391) (411) (457) (511) (569) (631) Other income/(expenses) 3 (0) 3 4 4 4 5 Share of results of joint ventures - 0 (0) 2 2 2 3 Total Operating Income 178 206 229 251 270 291 319 Finance income 5 14 16 19 28 37 42 Finance costs (3) (2) (1) (1) (1) (1) (2) Profit Before Tax 180 218 245 269 297 327 360 Taxation (11) (11) (15) (16) (18) (20) (22) Minority Interest (22) (22) (25) (28) (31) (34) (37) Net Profit Attributable to Parent 147 184 204 225 248 273 301 Cash & bank balances 344 502 555 655 761 874 997 Trade receivables 346 349 404 423 447 479 525 Other current assets 98 87 98 107 127 140 154 Total Current Assets 788 938 1,056 1,185 1,335 1,493 1,676 Available for sale investments 3 5 4 4 4 5 5 Investments in Joint Ventures - 8 19 21 23 26 28 Deferred tax assets 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 Intangible assets 3 6 9 8 7 6 4 Goodwill 805 853 863 863 863 863 863 Net fixed assets 240 247 332 375 418 449 469 Other non-current assets 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Assets 1,845 2,058 2,286 2,459 2,653 2,844 3,049 Trade payables 71 118 132 113 118 129 141 Other Borrowings 42 23 20 22 24 27 29 Employee indemnity provision 24 31 39 52 60 67 74 Other Liabilities 202 233 265 272 294 314 331 Paid-up Capital 1,210 1,331 1,464 1,464 1,464 1,464 1,464 Retained Earnings 177 224 272 363 453 536 629 Other Reserves 20 41 45 71 95 121 151 Shareholders' Equity 1,408 1,596 1,781 1,898 2,012 2,121 2,244 Minority Interest 29 28 25 52 83 117 154 Total Equity & Liability 1,845 2,058 2,286 2,459 2,653 2,844 3,049 Cash from Operating Activities 234 263 245 291 321 349 368 Cash from Investing Activities (95) (66) (160) (83) (84) (76) (70) Cash from Financing Activities (22) (39) (31) (109) (131) (160) (175) Change in Cash 117 159 54 100 106 113 123 Net Cash at End 323 502 555 655 761 874 997 Gross Profit Margin 49.9% 56.5% 53.8% 53.2% 52.7% 52.6% 52.8% Operating Margin 8.6% 10.5% 10.4% 10.2% 9.9% 9.7% 9.7% Net Profit Margin 7.1% 9.4% 9.2% 9.2% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% Current Ratio (x) 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 Total NFA Turnover (x) 9.6 8.0 7.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.2 ROAA 8.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.5% 9.7% 9.9% 10.2% ROAE 10.9% 12.3% 12.1% 12.2% 12.7% 13.2% 13.8% Dividend Payout Ratio ^ 76.2% 78.8% 75.0% 53.8% 58.6% 65.0% 64.4% Adjusted EPS (AED) 0.10 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.21 Adjusted BVPS (AED) 0.96 1.09 1.22 1.30 1.37 1.45 1.53 Market Price (AED) * 0.72 1.43 2.08 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 Dividend Yield ^^ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 5.0% 6.1% 6.7% P/E Ratio (x) 7.2 11.4 14.9 11.7 10.6 9.7 8.8 P/BV Ratio (x) 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 Source: Company Reports & Global Research * Market price for 2011 and subsequent years as per closing prices on DFM on March 10, 2010 ^ Bonus shares & cash dividend is factored. ^^ Only cash dividend is factored March - 2011 10
Global Research - UAE Disclosure The following is a comprehensive list of disclosures which may or may not apply to all our researches. Only the relevant disclosures which apply to this particular research has been mentioned in the table below under the heading of disclosure. Disclosure Checklist Company Recommendation Bloomberg Ticker Reuters Ticker Price Disclosure Aramex BUY ARMX UH ARMX.DU AED 1.74 1,10 1. Global Investment House did not receive and will not receive any compensation from the company or anyone else for the preparation of this report. 2. The company being researched holds more than 5% stake in Global Investment House. 3. Global Investment House makes a market in securities issued by this company. 4. Global Investment House acts as a corporate broker or sponsor to this company. 5. The author of or an individual who assisted in the preparation of this report (or a member of his/her household) has a direct ownership position in securities issued by this company. 6. An employee of Global Investment House serves on the board of directors of this company. 7. Within the past year, Global Investment House has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company, for which it received fees. 8. Global Investment House has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past year. 9. Global Investment House expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three month. 10. Please see special footnote below for other relevant disclosures. Global Research: Equity Ratings Definitions Global Rating Definition STRONG BUY BUY HOLD SELL Fair value of the stock is >20% from the current market price Fair value of the stock is between +10% and +20% from the current market price Fair value of the stock is between +10% and -10% from the current market price Fair value of the stock is < -10% from the current market price Disclaimer This material was produced by Global Investment House KSCC ( Global ),a firm regulated by the Central Bank of Kuwait. This document is not to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Global may, from time to time to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in other financing transactions with the issuers of the securities ( securities ), perform services for or solicit business from such issuer, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or options thereof. Global may, to the extent permitted by applicable Kuwaiti law or other applicable laws or regulations, effect transactions in the securities before this material is published to recipients. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived by Global from sources believed to be reliable, but Global has not independently verified the contents of this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Global accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This document is not to be relied upon or used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Global shall have no responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect of any inaccuracy in or omission from this or any other document prepared by Global for, or sent by Global to any person and any such person shall be responsible for conducting his own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject matter of this or other such document. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without prior notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any securities, and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. It is being furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed in any jurisdiction outside Kuwait where its distribution may be restricted by law. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware of and adhere to any such restrictions. By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. March - 2011 11
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