Live Long and Prosper? Demographic Change and Europe s Pensions Crisis. Dr. Jochen Pimpertz Brussels, 10 November 2015

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Transcription:

Live Long and Prosper? Demographic Change and Europe s Pensions Crisis Dr. Jochen Pimpertz Brussels, 10 November 2015

Old-age-dependency ratio, EU28 45,9 49,4 50,2 39,0 27,5 31,8 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Note: Ratio of people aged 65 and older relative to people aged 15 to 64. Source: Eurostat 2

Ageing of numerical strong cohorts, EU28 90+ 80-84 2060 2013 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 Source: Eurostat population at age, million 3

Italy Germany Greece Sweden Portugal Finland Bulgaria Latvia Denmark France EU28 Estonia Lithuania Croatia Belgium Austria United Kingdom Spain Netherlands Malta Hungary Slovenia Czech Republic Romania Luxembourg Poland Cyprus Ireland Slovakia Projected old-age-dependency ratio 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0,0-10,0-20,0 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Note: Projected number of persons aged 65 and over expressed as a percentage of the projected number of persones aged 15 to 64. Source: Eurostat (EUROPOP2010) 4

Italy France Austria Greece Portugal Finland Hungary Poland EU27 Slovenia Belgium Germany Malta Denmark Spain Bulgaria Romania Latvia Sweden Luxembourg Czech Republic Estonia Lithuania Slovakia United Kingdom Cyprus Ireland Netherlands Projection of pension expenditure as a percentage of GDP, 2013-2060 (EU Ageing Report 2012) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2010 2030 2060 Note: Pension Expenditure Projection (Baseline Scenario), last update 13 April 2015. Source: Eurostat (Pension Expenditure Projection, Basline Scenario, last update: 13 April 2015) 5

Pay-as-you-go pension scheme Period 1 cohort 2 paying contributions cohort 1 receiving pension payment Period 2 cohort 3 paying contributions cohort 2 receiving pension payment Period 3 cohort 3 receiving pension payment 6

PAYG Ageing of numerical strong cohorts Period 1 cohort 2 paying contributions cohort 1 receiving pension payment Period 2 cohort 3 paying contributions cohort 2 receiving pension payment Period 3 cohort 3 receiving pension payment 7

PAYG Low fertility rate Period 1 cohort 2 paying contributions cohort 1 receiving pension payment Period 2 cohort 3 paying contributions cohort 2 receiving pension payment Period 3 cohort 3 receiving pension payment 8

PAYG Rising life expectancy Period 1 cohort 2 paying contributions cohort 1 receiving pension payment Period 2 cohort 3 paying contributions cohort 2 receiving pension payment Period 3 cohort 3 receiving pension payment 9

Capital funded pension scheme Period 1 Period 2 Cohort 1 paying contributions receiving pension payment Cohort 2 paying contributions 10

CF Ageing of numerical strong cohorts Period 1 Period 2 Cohort 1 paying contributions receiving pension payment Cohort 2 paying contributions 11

CF Low fertility rate Period 1 Period 2 Cohort 1 paying contributions receiving pension payment Cohort 2 paying contributions 12

CF Rising life expectancy Period 1 Period 2 Cohort 1 paying contributions receiving pension payment Cohort 2 paying contributions 13

Ireland Italy Germany Portugal United Kingdom Netherlands Denmark Spain Poland Greece Austria Finland France Belgium Luxembourg Hungary Estonia Slovenia Czech Republic Slovakia Official and effective retirement age, men 70,0 68,0 66,0 64,0 62,0 60,0 58,0 56,0 54,0 52,0 effective official Note: EU member states that are OECD countries; average effective age of labour market exit and normal statutory retirement age. Source: OECD (Pension at a Glance, 2013) 14

Ireland Germany Portugal Netherlands Denmark Spain Finland France Belgium Luxembourg Greece Hungary Italy Czech Republic United Kingdom Estonia Slovenia Poland Austria Slovakia Official and effective retirement age, women 70,0 68,0 66,0 64,0 62,0 60,0 58,0 56,0 54,0 52,0 effective official Note: EU member states that are OECD countries; average effective age of labour market exit and normal statutory retirement age. Source: OECD (Pension at a Glance, 2013) 15

Different reform paths quasi-mandatory occupational pension scheme voluntary occupational and private pension schemes notional defined contribution scheme automatic enrolement in occupational pension scheme 16

Policy recommandations nation specific - within three pillars - national preferences - gradual but innovative EU - monitoring - evaluation - simulation - single market 17

Live Long and Prosper? Demographic Change and Europe s Pensions Crisis Dr. Jochen Pimpertz Brussels, 10 November 2015

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