Identifying Demand for Improved Cookstoves (ICS) in West Timor Final Report Written by Kopernik 2015 Fellows: Ade Safrina, Gabriela Cruz, Fiorella Benedetti August 2015 WEBSITE kopernik.info TWITTER @thekopernik FACEBOOK facebook.com/thekopernik
1. Summary & Recommendations 2. Methodology & Context 3. Place & People 4. Price 5. Product 6. Annex 2
Summary & Recommendations In order to assess the demand for improved cookstoves (ICS), the fellow team conducted fieldwork over 8 eight weeks in West Timor interviewing 337 households in 32 communities, as well as 10 Wonder Women (WW) and 10 existing users of the stove. Place & People Which villages & HHs demand ICS? Product Which aspects of ICS are in demand? Findings Most people interested in buying ICS live in rural or peri-urban area. People who are married, have more stable income and are living in rural areas display greatest interest in buying ICS. Income savings is the main benefit of ICS, as indicated by more than half of WW and users. Durability and need for further maintenance are identified as key issues with ICS. Most households do not use a single cooking method. Recommendations Take into account these factors in order to target potential clients with higher probability of buying. Saving calculator tool for kerosene usage. Improving product materials and WW training to better explain the benefits of ICSs to consumers. Test the product in non-laboratory conditions to evaluate its durability. Price At what price are ICS in demand? Offering installment option considerably increases the willingness to buy from 23% to 80%. Consider offering more flexible payment options.. Promotion In what ways should the ICS be promoted? Three-stone stove users identify smoke inhalation as a health issue. Health benefits should be communicated to threestone stove users as part of promotional activities. Detailed findings on promotion are not included in this abridged report. 3
1. Summary & Recommendations 2. Methodology & Context 3. Place & People 4. Price 5. Product 6. Annex 4
Sample Size Covered Kefa Soe Kupang Households interviewed 337 Villages visited 32 Wonder Women interviewed 10 ICS users interviewed 10
Secondary Data (Government Statistics) Socioeconomic Indicators Highest purchasing power concentrated in Kupang. Highest percentage of poverty in Soe. Regency Average Life Expectancy (years) Mean Years of Education (years) Per Capita Monthly Expenditure Percentage of People in Poverty Kupang 73.46 11.29 Rp 638,030 9.12% South Central Timor (Soe) 67.26 6.71 Rp 614,650 27.81% North Central Timor (Kefa) East Nusa Tenggara Province Average 69.19 6.94 Rp 613,280 21.59% 68.05 7.16 Rp 612,880 20.24% Source: www.bps.go.id & www.nttbps.go.id (only in Indonesian) 6
Primary Data Stove Type Usage Kupang has the highest rate of Kerosene cookstove usage. Three Stone Fire (3SF) cooking method is most prevalent in Soe. Characteristics Kefa Kupang Soe Total number of observations 115 95 127 Using kerosene cookstoves 52% 96% 54% Using 3 stone fire (3SF) 92% 60% 98% Fuel Access In Soe, wood is highly available at no cost. In Kupang and Kefa kerosene is more readily available. Characteristics Kefa Kupang Soe Total number of observations 115 95 127 Availability of wood 51% 48% 69% Have to buy wood 35% 53% 17% Kerosene shortages* 29% 27% 72% *Kerosene shortage is described as a situation in which obtaining kerosene requires longer waiting time or greater distance traveled than usual. 7
IS THERE DEMAND FOR IMPROVED COOKSTOVES IN WEST TIMOR? 8
1. Summary & Recommendations 2. Methodology & Context 3. Place & People 4. Price 5. Product 6. Annex 9
Demand map based on willingness to buy Demand cutoffs Green: High demand above 40% Yellow: Medium demand 25-39% Red: Low demand 24% Kefa Figure expresses proportion of respondents willing to buy up front in cash. So e West Timor 10 Kupang City
People: Key factors determining willingness to buy Area characteristics and family status are the key determinants of willingness to buy an ICS according to regression analysis. Correlation Statistically Significant Determinants Category + Living in rural or peri-urban area Location + Married and living together Marital status + Having good dwelling materials* Income + Women having regular salary (employee)** Income + Partner having regular salary (employee)** Income - Having to buy wood Location + Availability of kerosene at home Income Note: This table summarizes the results of a regression analysis. The above variables are statistically significant at 10 percent level. * Having good dwelling materials refers to having ceramic in the floor or pentile, shingle or asbestos in the roof. **Being a regular salary employee includes civil servants, NGO and schools employees and other regular salary employees. 11
Determinants and correlation of willingness to buy research Determinants Rural Mexico Uganda Bangladesh Health Issue Concerning Previous Cooking Method Convenience on Acquiring Fuel for Cookstoves + a No Data No Data + b + h + o Alternative Cooking Methods - c + i No Effect/No Data Higher Educational Level in the Community Head of the House Employment profile as Farmers / Agricultural Work Women works primarily at home (Homestay Wife) Less transient population (longer average length of stay at current residence) Women with some independent income or access to financing Strategic Location (Living in Urban / Peri Urban Area) Big amount of control over the use of house income (Women) Married or live with a partner, living together + d No Data No Data + e - j - p + f No Effect/No Data No Data + g No Data No Data No Effect/No Data + k + q No Data + l - r No Data + m No Effect/No Data No Data + n + s Source: See Annex: Uganda: Mercy Corps(2015), Mexico: IEI (2011), Bangladesh: USAID (2013) 12
1. Summary & Recommendations 2. Methodology & Context 3. Place & People 4. Price 5. Product 6. Annex 13
Price was reported to be the strongest factor deterring consumers from buying the stove Reasons not to buy an Improved Cookstove Percentage (n=42)* 12 2 2 19 Completely satistfied with their cooking method Price is too expensive Traditional reason Unfamiliar with the technology Other 64 *These 42 respondents indicated their unwillingness to purchase an ICS at Rp 320,000, upfront in cash or with installments. Source: Interviews conducted in Soe, Kefa & Kupang July 2015 14
The option to purchase on installment considerably increases the willingness to buy, turning all surveyed areas in Kupang and Kefa into high demand areas. Willingness to buy upfront and with installment by village Proportion of all responses per area (n total=210)* 1 0.9 0.8 n Willing to buy in installments n Willing to buy upfront in cash 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 High Demand Medium Demand Low Demand Kupang Kefa Source: Surveys conducted in Kefa and Kupang, July 2015 15
1. Executive Summary & Recommendations 2. Methodology & Context 3. Place & People 4. Price 5. Product 6. Annex 16
Product: Income, time savings and health benefits of the ICS Given there is no full transition to ICS (i.e. practicing stove stacking), ICS benefits have not been maximized by existing ICS users. Income savings More than half of the Wonder Women and users indicated income saving as the most important benefit of ICS. For users who find wood available freely around the house, switching to an ICS does not result in income saving. Users who switch or mix fuels, and have to buy firewood for the ICS also do not realize income savings. When using ICS, users reduce their kerosene consumption by 41%. But, the ICS short lifespan (~2 years) means the stove purchase cost will recur in a couple of years. Time savings and health benefits 4 out of 7 Wonder Women and 3 out of 9 users think the ICS does not result in saved time because of the extra time it takes to chop wood that fits the ICS. 3 out of 7 stove users were not aware of the health benefits of ICS. Health benefits can be a selling factor in rural communities, as evident by 54% of interviewed three-stone fire users expressing concerns over inhaling smoke from their cooking sources. Rigorous impact evaluation conducted in India concluded that positive health outcomes expected from use of ICS were not consistent due to prevalence of stove-stacking practices among ICS users. (Duflo, E., Hanna, R., Greenstone, M., 2012.) 17
1. Executive Summary & Recommendations 2. Methodology & Context 3. Place & People 4. Price 5. Product 6. Annex 18
Annex - Detailed information over literature review Rural Mexico a) Those who reported suffering from irritated eyes during the health pre-survey those who use wood scraps for fuel were more than twice as likely to adopt the stove were more than twice as likely to adopt the stove. b) Those who use wood scraps for fuel were more than twice as likely to adopt the stove. Familiarity use of pine wood in the household were significantly and positively associated with quick adoption of the stove. c) Using kerosene for fuel and kerosene cookstove as cooking method was marginally negatively associated with Improved Cookstove adoption at later times. d) Women in Quinceo and Mojonera (early/ easy adopter communities) were more highly educated, averaging 5 years of formal education while participants from Turicuaro (late / difficult adopter community) averaged only 3 years. e) Head of household occupation as a farmer were significantly and positively associated with adoption at earlier times. f) Households in which the woman works outside the home were 50% less likely to adopt the Improved Cookstove in the earlier time. g) Participants reported, on average, more years lived at their current address in the early / easy adopter communities than the difficult / late adopter community. Source: Kathleen Pine et Al. 2011. Adoption and use of improved biomass stoves in Rural Mexico. Mexico: International Energy Initiatives. 19
Annex - Detailed information over literature review Uganda h) Early improved cookstove adopters are likely women who are already using charcoal for cooking at least part of the time. This includes as many as 45,000-50,000 households within East Acholi. These women are already purchasing fuel and would experience immediate benefits through cost-savings in fuel purchases. If they are already using charcoal, the probability of adoption is higher, but firewood users that fall into these groups are also better positioned to buy than most other firewood users. i) Married women firewood users living in villages in households dependent on agriculture who are dependent on their husbands for income are among the least likely to buy improved cookstoves. This group has relatively high barriers to access across the board and very few offsetting motivating factors. j) Salaried women working for NGOs, health centers, schools, and local government: Currently, this consumer group is one of the biggest buyers of the improved cookstove. Although all salaried women are good to target for their relatively higher purchasing power, salaried women working for these groups are especially good targets. They are mobile, educated, have reliable income, and a need to cook food quickly, efficiently and cleanly. They are also time-constrained. emale salaried or small business owners in urban areas or small towns who are heads of household or living separately from their husbands may be early adopters as they face few obstacles in terms of decision-making, have regular income, and confront high demands on their time all factors that highly motivate a switch to improved cookstoves. k) Over 90 percent of all purchasers lived in urban or peri-urban locales. l) A full 85 percent of purchasers indicated that they exercise total control over the use of household income. m) Most purchasers are married or with a partner, and living together. Source: Kim Beevers. 2015. What motivates women to buy? : Valuing, Understanding, Targeting Women for Improved Cookstove Purchase. Mercy Corps Uganda 20
Annex - Detailed information over literature review Bangladesh o) 105 of 120 households in the field survey that are willing to adopt the cookstoves familarly use wood as the primary fuel. About 50% of their size involved in wood gathering activities (not buying woods) for their fuel needs. In most of households, agrowaster (dry leafs) also used as the supplementary fuel in the winter months (December January). p) The main occupation of the husband is business (31%), followed by service (22,5%). Other common occupations are driver hired vehicles, artisans, farmers, fishing, and daily laborers. q) Among the women, 46 out of 120 were enganged in income generating activities. Poultry rearing and sewing were the most common. About half (61/120) of the participants belong to some sort of women s group (such as saving cooperatives) r) Only 9/118 participants reccommended that this stove would appropriate in urban-peri urban area. There is lack of space in urban area for the cookstove, and the probability of people using LPG / Gas stove is much higher in the urban community. s) The baseline survey asked whether respondents were able to independently make the decision whether or not to purchase the cookstove. The result shows a gradual rise in decision making powers as women s age increases and as they are in marital status (or having a partner) and have authority to make a decision within their own family. Source:: WASHplus Project. 2013. Understanding Consumer Preference and Willingness to Pay for Improved Cookstoves in Bangladesh. USAID 21