Commodity Buzz Agri February 15, 2018 Index Key points Castor Seed Cotton Jeera Soyabean Visit us at www.sharekhancommodity.com For Private Circulation only
Unseasonal rains in Maharashtra damage crops across 1 lakh hectares Agricultural sector highlights: Sugar prices jump 15% in one week on higher import duty and stock limits Jeera output likely to increase 20% on higher sowing Chana prices continue to slide on higher sowing Coffee growers want the Government to consider a MSP or a price compensation scheme FEB 4,095 4,102 4,031 4,083 4,109-0.63 MAR 4,162 4,162 4,080 4,105 4,167-1.49 APR 4,216 4,220 4,152 4,182 4,232-1.18 MAY 4,223 4,223 4,223 4,223 4,297-1.72 PRICE FEB MAR APR MAY SPOT 4,187-104 -82-5 36 FEB 4,083-22 99 140 MAR 4,105 - - 77 118 APR 4,182 - - - 41 MAY 4,223 - - - - Bhabhar 485 0 MT Deesa 3357 0 MT Kadi 7008 61 MT Patan 14919 10 MT Total 25769 71 MT Castor seed Castor seed March declined 1.49% on Wednesday on weak demand, poor off takes and higher arrivals. Demand from overseas markets for castor oil also remained weak. Prices made a new contract low of Rs. 4047 last month. However, lower output concerns supported prices at lower levels. Government proposed to increase customs duty on crude and refined castor oil to 30% and 35% respectively in the Union Budget. Prices in Deesa traded around 4000-4050 while prices in Gondal traded around 3755-3980. Prices in Harij traded around Rs. 3950-4025 while prices in Kadi traded around 3950-4050. (Source: Agriwatch) Sowing of castor seed in 2017 stood at 8.30 lakh ha compared with 8.56 lakh ha during the corresponding period last year. It was 17.19% lower compared with 5 year average of 10.02 lakh ha. Gujarat Agriculture Department revised 2016-17 castor seed output lower to 12.55 lakh tonnes, 11% lower compared to its previous estimates. According to SEA, India exported 31,129 tonnes castor seed meal in January 18 compared to 14,749 tonnes in January 17. The Ministry of Agriculture released 1st Advance Estimates for 2017-18, wherein it has estimated castor seed output at 13.96 lakh tonnes compared to 14.21 lakh tonnes last year. Total stocks on NCDEX accredited warehouses stand at 25,840 mt out of which 25,769 mt are valid stocks while the remaining 71 mt are in process. Castor seed may continue to trade on a negative note. Ample supplies, weak demand from bulk consumers and expectations of higher yield may keep prices under pressure. However, short coverings may be seen at lower levels. Value buying and lower level demand may support prices at lower levels. Good castor meal exports may also support prices. 2 February 15, 2018 2
Sharekhan Comtrade Commodity Buzz FEB 19,860 19,900 19,670 19,730 19,910-0.90 MAR 20,100 20,130 19,910 19,970 20,130-0.79 APR 20,330 20,330 20,130 20,180 20,350-0.84 MAY 0 0 0 20,400 20,950-2.63 PRICE FEB MAR APR MAY SPOT 19,450 280 520 730 950 FEB 19,730-240 450 670 MAR 19,970 - - 210 430 APR 20,180 - - - 220 MAY 20,400 - - - - Rajkot 34700 400 Bales Kadi 27700 300 Bales Mundra 14200 500 Bales Jalna 5200 0 Bales Yavatmal 10600 3300 Bales Adilabad 4500 0 Bales Warangal 1000 3800 Bales Total 97900 8300 Bales Cotton Cotton Feb futures declined 0.90% on Wednesday on weak overseas markets and a strong rupee. Prices also declined on long liquidation and increasing arrivals at higher prices. Prices gained earlier on tight supplies and good export demand. Crop damage in Maharashtra and Telangana also supported prices. Cotton Advisory Board has projected 2017-18 output 9% up at 37.7mn bales. Cotton Association of India pegged 2017-18 output at 37.5 mn bales compared with 33.725 mn bales last year. Gujarat government has announced Rs 500/qtl bonus on cotton. Sowing of cotton stood 19.27% higher at 122.59 lakh ha v/s 102.79 lakh ha during the corresponding period last year. Prices in Rajkot traded at Rs. 4500-5100/qtl while Bhatinda traded at Rs. 4215-4230/maund. (Source: Agriwatch) ICE Cotton futures declined 0.75% on Wednesday on higher sowing expectations next year and higher supplies. Prices gained earlier on bullish weekly export sales data and mill buying, good export demand and quality concerns. The WASDE report forecast global output higher at 121.37 mn bales v/s 120.97 mn bales last month. It pegged 2017/18 global end stocks higher at 88.55mn bales v/s 87.79 mn bales. China s 2017 output is expected to increase 2.7% to 5.5 mn tonne. The Ministry of Agriculture released 1st Advance Estimates for 2017-18, wherein it has estimated cotton output 322.73 lk bales compared to 330.92 lk bales in 2016-17. Total stocks on MCX accredited warehouses stand at 106,200 bales out of which 97,900 bales are valid stocks while 8,300 bales are in process. Cotton may trade on a negative note. Weak overseas markets, increasing arrivals and long liquidation may pressurize prices. However, short coverings may be seen at lower levels. Tight supplies and good export demand may support prices. Crop damage in Telangana and Maharashtra may also support prices. February 15, 2018 3
Sharekhan Comtrade Commodity Buzz MAR 15,970 16,050 15,810 15,895 16,095-1.24 APR 16,280 16,310 16,120 16,165 16,395-1.40 MAY 16,535 16,535 16,325 16,375 16,540-1.00 JUNE 0 0 0 16,585 16,685-0.60 PRICE MAR APR MAY JUNE SPOT 19,263-3,368-3,098-2,888-2,678 MAR 15,895-270 480 690 APR 16,165 - - 210 420 MAY 16,375 - - - 210 JUNE 16,585 - - - - Jodhpur 678 0 MT Unjha 8220 0 MT Total 8898 0 MT Jeera Jeera March declined 1.24% on Wednesday and touched a new contract low of Rs. 15,810 on arrival pressure of the new crop. Prices gained earlier last week on good demand. Prices declined over the past few days on higher output expectations and higher sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Jeera acreage in Gujarat increased 37.28 percent at 3,82,600 ha vs 2,78,700 ha last year. The geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey have hit supplies from the exporting nations. Prices in Delhi spot traded around Rs. 19,500 for Ganesh variety. Prices in Unjha declined to Rs. 16,500. (Source: Agriwatch) Prices gained sharply earlier last year on lower acreage, lower domestic supplies due to record exports and lower carryover stocks. Output in 2016-17 in Gujarat is expected around 2.21 lakh tonnes, compared with 2.38 lakh tonnes last year. According to the Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera from India in FY 2016-17 stood at 119,000 MT, 22 percent higher compared to last year. In value terms, exports jumped 28 percent to Rs 1963.20 crores. Total stocks on NCDEX accredited warehouses stand at 8,898 mt out of which 8,898 mt are valid stocks while 0 mt are in process. Jeera may trade on a negative note. New crop arrival pressure, higher sowing this season and expectations of higher output this year may continue to pressurize prices. However, short coverings may be seen at lower levels. Demand in the spot market may support prices at lower levels. Good demand from the export markets may also support prices. 4 February 15, 2018 4
Sharekhan Comtrade Commodity Buzz FEB 3,808 3,823 3,735 3,744 3,812-1.78 MAR 3,857 3,890 3,745 3,765 3,832-1.75 APR 3,918 3,918 3,796 3,816 3,887-1.83 MAY 3,970 3,970 3,849 3,874 3,948-1.87 PRICE FEB MAR APR MAY SPOT 3,855-111 -90-39 19 FEB 3,744-21 72 130 MAR 3,765 - - 51 109 APR 3,816 - - - 58 MAY 3,874 - - - - Akola 59754 10 MT Indore 20874 0 MT Kota 80834 685 MT Latur 9096 0 MT Mandsaur 7945 30 MT Nagpur 2825 0 MT Sagar 2052 0 MT Shujalpur 2148 0 MT Vidisha 620 0 MT Total 186148 725 MT Soybean Soybean March declined 1.75% on Wednesday on profit taking. Prices gained earlier this week on renewed buying and touched a new contract high of Rs. 3914. Tight supplies and good demand due to lower global output also supported prices. Good demand from crushers also supported prices. Prices declined earlier on long liquidation and weak demand at higher levels. Meal export demand is weak on disparity. Prices in Indore traded around Rs. 3500-3825. Prices in Kota spot market traded around Rs. 3650-3750. (Source: Agriwatch) Soybean on CBOT gained 0.62% Wednesday on dry weather concerns in Argentina and bullish soy meal prices. Lower US soy output expectations and Chinese demand also supported prices. WASDE report left US output unchanged at 4.392 bn bsh. It raised end stocks estimate to 530 mn bsh v/s 470 mn bsh. It cut global output to 346.92 mn tn v/s 348.57 mn tn and raised global end stocks to 98.14 mn tn v/s 98. 57 mn tn. Sowing of soybean stood 7.67% lower at 105.92 lakh ha compared to 114.79 lakh ha last year. SOPA revised 2016-17 output to 11.4 mn tn compared with 7 mn tn last year. According to SEA, Soymeal exports in December 2017 declined 30% to 168,865 tonnes compared to 241,250 tonnes in December 2016. The Ministry of Agriculture released 1st Advance Estimates for 2017-18, wherein it has estimated soybean output 122.17 lk tonnes compared with 137.94 lk tonnes in 2016-17. Total stocks on NCDEX accredited warehouses stand at 186,873 mt of which 186,148 mt are valid stocks while 725 mt are in process. Soybean may trade positive. Positive overseas markets, tight supplies and lower output may support prices. However, weak demand from crushers at higher levels may cap sharp gains. Profit taking may be seen at higher levels. February 15, 2018 5
Know more about our products and services For Private Circulation only Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by Sharekhan Comtrade Pvt. Ltd. and is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed to and may contain confidential and/or privileged material and is not for any type of circulation. Any review, retransmission, or any other use is prohibited. Kindly note that this document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. If you have received this in error, please contact the sender and delete the material immediately from your computer/mailbox. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We may from time to time have positions in, or options on, and buy and sell securities referred to herein. We may from time to time solicit from, or perform investment banking, or other services for, any company mentioned. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of Sharekhan Comtrade Pvt. Ltd. Sharekhan Comtrade Pvt. Ltd. SEBI Registration No. MCX-55400 : INZ000041331 ; NCDEX-1227 : INZ000041331 ; For any complaints email at igc@ skcomtrade.com ; Registered Office: 18th Floor, North East Wing, The Ruby, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar West, Mumbai 400028, Maharashtra. Tel: 022-67502000. Disclaimer: Client should read the Risk Disclosure Document issued by SEBI & Do s & Don ts by MCX & NCDEX and the T & C on www. sharekhancommodity.com before investing. 6