Active Labour market policies for the EUROPE 2020-strategy Ways to move Forward
ALMPs, key components in the EES? Chaired by Ann VAN DEN CRUYCE, Tom BEVERS (EMCO Indicators Group) Sabine GAGEL (EUROSTAT)
Tom BEVERS EMCO Indicators Group
Monitoring, benchmarking and evaluation of active labour market policies within the context of the Europe 2020 Strategy Tom Bevers Chair of the EMCO Indicators Group
The European Employment Strategy Active labour market policies have always had an important place in the EES. The first guidelines (1998) state that : Member States will ensure that: - every unemployed young person is offered a new start before reaching six months of unemployment, in the form of training, retraining, work practice, a job or other employability measure; - unemployed adults are also offered a fresh start before reaching 12 months of unemployment by one of the aforementioned means or, more generally, by accompanying individual vocational guidance. These preventive and employability measures should be combined with measures to promote the re-employment of the long-term unemployed, Each Member State: - will endeavour to increase significantly the number of persons benefiting from active measures to improve their employability. In order to increase the numbers of unemployed who are offered training or any similar measure, it will in particular fix a target, in the light of its starting situation, of gradually achieving the average of the three most successful Member States, and at least 20 %.
The ALMP targets Clear targets : New start for all young unemployed before the 6th month (2009 number : 18.M3) In 2006 the target became before the 4th month, by 2010 New start for all adult unemployed before the 12th month (18.M3) 25% of all long term unemployed must participate in an active measure (18.M4) Measurement?
Measurement of the targets Since 2000 : development of EES indicators European sources (LFS) and national sources Not all countries deliver data : 2003 2007 New start 11/15 13/27 Activation of LTU 9/15 9/27 Difficult concepts and comparibility issues : Measuring non-compliance on the basis of regular activation and assisted activation Range (2007) : non-compliance between 0.85% and 82.4%
Other ALMP-related indicators Early stages : Rate of return to employment after participation in a measure Now Follow-up of participants 19.A4 Data very scarce and important comparability concerns Development of the LMP database in 2003 opens up new possibilities : Timely activation (activation of not yet LTU 19.A2) Activation of registered unemployed (19.A3) LMP expenditure (per person wanting to work in the LFS) (19.A5 & A6)
Looking back If we had known what we know now, more could have been invested in the measurement of the targets (LFS?) Although the guidelines had an impact and monitoring with harmonized data has worked, the monitoring exercise with national data on the whole has been a failure Some Member States have done a good job in monitoring their measures on the basis of administrative data, but comparing is very difficult LMP data are promising for input benchmarking but not really for any output assessment (is it even worth the effort?)
Looking forward Europe 2020 Strategy : Less guidelines Less details Overall headline target (75% ER 20-64) National targets taking front stage No explicit targets such as the New start (although in the Flagship Youth on the Move it reappears but Flagships are illustrative ) Still much attention to all types of ALMP : Activation is key to increase labour market participation. is the first sentence of the new employment guidelines
Europe 2020 monitoring Monitoring : the indicators-based Joint Assessment Framework Higher analytical ambitions Striving for a synthetic view, build around policy areas Main and context indicators One area : active labour market policies Proposed main indicator under this area : long-term unemployment rate (not agreed yet), all other indicators in the context list Still need for (even better) indicators
What do we have, what do we need? Work on LMP database methodology (harmonisation) should continue, but promises good input indicators only However, good indicators for output and efficiency of ALMP are still far away : Outflow data are of very unequal quality and are not really what we need Monitoring and benchmarking imperfect
What about policy evaluation? EES has learned a lot about policies But exchange of good practices has not lead to a systematic exchange of policy evaluation results Employment Research Dialogue can help Meta-analyses are very useful (and it helps that EC and OECD bring them together) We know a lot about what types of policies work better than others, but not really what (individual/national) policies work good and why
More should be done Policy evaluation remains crucial Member States could be encouraged to do more Standardized and easier-to-use evaluation tools should be developed (empower administrations) To influence policies, more effort should go to communication and indicators can be good communication tools
What we have Reality 35000 LMP expenditure per person wanting to work 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 LU BE NL DK IE FR DE AT FI ES SE PT IT CY UK SI CZ LT HU PL SK LV RO BG MT EE
What we want Fiction 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 LMP efficiency rate
Eurostat's labour market policy (LMP) statistics Sabine GAGEL EUROSTAT
Labour market policy (LMP) statistics Sabine Gagel Eurostat unit F2 Labour market statistics 28 October 2010
LMP database 1997: EES launched at the European Council Luxembourg Jobs Summit 1998: ESTAT + DG EMPL together with MS start working on a methodology 2000 LMP methodology 2006 LMP methodology (+2009 addendum) LMP database developed as instrument to monitor the implementation and evolution of targeted labour market policies Use of LMP based indicators 1998 Employment Guidelines Lisbon strategy Europe 2020 strategy 28 October 2010 LMP statistics 2
Scope of the LMP statistics Public interventions in the labour market aimed at reaching its efficient functioning and correcting disequilibria and which can be distinguished from other general employment policy interventions in that they act selectively to favour particular groups in the labour market. Public interventions Actions taken by general government which involve expenditure Target groups Unemployed Employed at risk Inactive 28 October 2010 LMP statistics 3
Types of intervention (1) Three types of intervention are distinguished Services Measures (~ ALMP) Supports (~ PLMP) Services (category 1) All activities of the PES + other publicly funded jobseeker services Client services (1.1) Job brokerage functions and other jobseeker services 1.1.2 Individual case management assisted activation Other activities of the PES (1.2) Mainly administration Scope will vary between countries 28 October 2010 LMP statistics 4
Types of intervention (2) Measures (categories 2-7) Main activity of participants is other than job search related Participation usually results in a change in labour market status Normally temporary support Categories Training Job rotation and job sharing Employment incentives Supported Employment and rehabilitation Direct job creation Start-up incentives 28 October 2010 LMP statistics 5
Types of intervention (3) Supports (categories 8-9) Financial assistance to individuals Usually persons out of work and actively seeking work Categories Out-of-work income maintenance and support Unemployment benefits Early retirement Facilitate full or partial early retirement 28 October 2010 LMP statistics 6
LMP data Quantitative data LMP expenditure Transfers to individuals, employers, service providers LMP participants Stocks, entrants, exits, sex, age (Duration of unemployment, previous status, destination of exits) Qualitative data Detailed descriptions of the interventions Aim, beneficiaries/participants, action/instrument, financing/support, eligibility, legal basis 28 October 2010 LMP statistics 7
LMP statistics online LMP information online: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/labour_market/lab our_market_policy Online database 28 October 2010 LMP statistics 8
EU-27 key figures 2008 Total LMP expenditure 201 billion EUR = 1.6% of GDP LMP measures 57 billion EUR = 0.45% of GDP 28% of total LMP expenditure 10.3 million participants (stock) LMP supports 120 billion EUR = 0.96% of GDP 60% of total LMP expenditure 13.0 million participants 28 October 2010 LMP statistics 9
Public expenditure on labour market policy interventions, 2008, % of GDP 4 3 LM P services (category 1) LM P measures (categories 2 to 7) LM P supports (categories 8 and 9) 2 1 0 28 October 2010 LMP statistics 10
Public expenditure on labour market policy measures, EU-27, 2008, % of total Suppo rted employment and rehabilitatio n 16.1% Start-up incentives 7.2% Job rotation and job sharing 0.4% Direct job creation 13.4% Training 39% Employment incentives 24% 28 October 2010 LMP statistics 11
Activation: participants in LMP measures per 100 persons wanting to work (indicator 19.M2) 140 120 100 per 100 PWW 80 60 40 Total Males Females 20 0 EU- 27 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SL SK FI SE UK NO High values for activation, even over 100%, may occur when countries make extensive use of employment incentive measures as the participants are considered as employed and are therefore not part of the denominator 28 October 2010 LMP statistics 12
Support for short-time working (1) Ad-hoc collection of data on schemes to support shorttime working and temporary lay-offs Combined case studies of short-term developments in selected countries with long-term annual data from LMP database First undertaken spring 2009 in the context of an LMP seminar Short-term data for 6 countries: BE, DE, FR, AT, PT, FI 28 October 2010 LMP statistics 13
Support for short-time working (2) Much interest in results updates of the ad-hoc collection in October 2009, May 2010 and October 2010 Short-term data for 16 countries: BE, BG, CZ, DE, IE, ES, FR, IT, LU, NL, AT, PL, PT, RO, SK, FI Results of October update to be presented mid-november to DG EMPL Preferred observation: monthly stock of benefit recipients Not always readily available alternative observations provided: entrants, expenditure and compensated hours Need to bear in mind different observations when interpreting results 28 October 2010 LMP statistics 14
Recipients of short-time working allowance, Germany, 1998 March 2010 1 600 000 1 400 000 Annual average stock (1998-2008) Monthly stock (Jan-08 - Mar-10) 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Source: Eurostat, LMP database; BA 28 October 2010 LMP statistics 15
Monthly expenditure on partial unemployment benefits, France, 1998 September 2010 70 60 50 Euro, millions Average monthly expenditure (1998-2008) Monthly expenditure (Jan-08-Sep-10) 70 60 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Source: DARES, extraction INDIA, programme 103, art. 25, 28 & economic recovery plan art. 22, 40, 58. Figures in January and February are not reliable due to administrative procedures. 28 October 2010 LMP statistics 16
LMP statistics some problems Timeliness Release t+18 months Coverage Inclusion of all relevant interventions Missing breakdowns for calculating indicators (participants) Adequate inclusion of individual action plans (IAPs) ESF funded programmes Relevance Adapt to integrated LMP programmes (services / measures) LMP statistics provide input indicators only 28 October 2010 LMP statistics 17
Active Labour market policies for the EUROPE 2020-strategy Ways to move Forward