Northeast Avalon Region June 2008
Prepared By: Economic Research and Analysis Division Economics and Statistics Branch Department of Finance P.O. Box 8700 St. John s, NL A1B 4J6 Telephone: (709) 729-3255 Facsimile: (709) 729-6944 Website: www.economics.gov.nl.ca June 2008 Economic Research and Analysis Division www.economics.gov.nl.ca 2
Contents 1.0 Introduction... 1 2.0 Methodology... 7 3.0... 9 4.0 Summary... 11 5.0 Glossary... 13 6.0 Appendices... 15 Appendix A... 17 Appendix B... 21 Appendix C... 23 1 www.economics.gov.nl.ca Economic Research and Analysis Division
Economic Research and Analysis Division www.economics.gov.nl.ca 2
1.0 Introduction In January 2005, the provincial government announced a comprehensive review of the St. John s Urban Region Regional Plan. The St. John s Urban Region Regional Plan is the planning and policy document that guides development and land use for the Northeast Avalon Peninsula as far south as Witless Bay and south west as Holyrood including Bell Island. The Plan was approved in 1976 and although there have been several amendments over the years, there had not been an extensive review since the Plan was implemented. As a part of the review, a Technical Planning Committee was established and it was this committee that asked the Economic Research and Analysis Division (ERAD) of the Department of Finance to prepare population and household projections for the Northeast Avalon Region. This report presents a review of past population and household trends as well as projections for the coming years. Historical data (census years) from 1981 to 2006 are presented along with projections to 2026. The results are available by five-year age groups and gender for the region. The population and household projections in this report include the following municipalities: St. John s, Mount Pearl, Conception Bay South, Paradise, Portugal Cove-St. Philip s, Torbay, Holyrood, Logy Bay-Middle Cove-Outer Cove, Pouch Cove, Flatrock, Witless Bay, Bay Bulls, Petty Harbour-Maddox Cove, Bell Island and Bauline. Holyrood Pouch Cove Flatrock Bauline Torbay Bell Island Portugal Cove-St. Philip's St. John's Paradise Mount Pearl Conception Bay South Logy Bay-Middle Cove-Outer Cove Petty Harbour-Maddox Cove In the process of preparing the population projections, the ERAD conducted consultations with various municipal officials for their knowledge of ongoing and potential future developments in their respective areas. Discussions revolved around present and future potential commercial and residential development prospects for each town/city. Department of Finance Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency Witless Bay Bay Bulls RW08_111v1 May 9, 2008 1 www.economics.gov.nl.ca Economic Research and Analysis Division
Using historic data, the information collected in consultation with municipal officials and ERAD's long-term economic forecast, three scenarios (high, medium and low) were produced for population and households in the region. Total Fertility Rate The time periods available for historical data vary by geography and indicator. Most provincial level data are available back to the early 1970s. However, data regarding population and occupied dwellings are available from census years 1981 to 2006, while birth, death and net-migration data are only available from 1991 to 2005. 1.1 Past Trends Background Changes in a region s population can be disaggregated into components. Births and in-migration increase the size of the population while deaths and out-migration decrease the population. Fertility rates and births are influenced by factors such as new birth control methods, changing societal values regarding gender equality and children, and increased female labour force participation. The number of deaths generally depends on the age structure and life expectancies in a population. Factors influencing births and deaths tend to be stable from year-to-year and change slowly over time. However, in- and out-migration tends to be driven by the health of the local economy relative to other jurisdictions. Relative economic conditions can change from year-to-year and as a result annual net-migration (in less out) numbers can, and very often do, change dramatically from one year to the next. Combined, these demographic factors determine the overall size and make-up of the population. Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance Natural Population Change, Northeast Avalon Natural Population Change The demographics of Newfoundland and Labrador have changed significantly over the past four decades. The Total Fertility Rate 1 (TFR) has declined sharply from 4.6 in the mid 1960s to about 1.3 today. The TFR in the Northeast Avalon Region has followed the provincial Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance 1. The number of births per women of childbearing age at current fertility rates. Economic Research and Analysis Division www.economics.gov.nl.ca 2
trend since 1991 declining from roughly 1.5 in 1991 to roughly 1.3 in recent years. Net Migration, Northeast Avalon Provincial births have fallen along with fertility rates, declining from around 15,000 annually in the early 1960s to about 4,300 last year. Over the past 15 years births in the Northeast Avalon have also declined, dropping from near 2,500 in 1991 to roughly 1,900 in 2005. With the provincial population aging, the number of deaths have increased, rising from around 3,000 annually in the 1960s to about 4,500 last year. Deaths in the Northeast Avalon increased modestly over the past 15 years increasing from approximately 1,200 in 1991 to roughly 1,400 in 2005. The combination of declining births and increasing deaths means that provincial natural population change has declined from an annual increase of roughly 12,000 in the 1960s to a decrease of roughly 200 last year. Similar trends were observed in the Northeast Avalon Region where natural population change declined from 1,300 in 1991 to roughly 500 in 2005. Net Migration and Population The population of Newfoundland and Labrador declined steadily from 1992 to 2007. The collapse of the fishery in 1992 was followed by a period of high out-migration in the mid to late 1990s. High out-migration and a low fertility rate contributed to large population declines. Out-migration slowed in the 2002 to 2004 period, but it increased again in the 2005 to 2007 period as major construction projects were completed and the demand for labour in other provinces (e.g., Alberta) increased. Recent quarterly numbers for the second half of 2007 and the first half of 2008 show signs of an improvement with preliminary numbers indicating net in-migration to the province. This is most likely due to the strong performance of the province's economy and renewed optimism about future opportunities, in particular oil and gas. The Northeast Avalon Region lost people due to net out-migration between 1991 and 2001; however, unlike the province as a whole, the losses were not high enough to cause significant population Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance declines. In fact, things turned around between 2001 and 2006 with net in-migration and natural increase both contributing to population growth. Table 1 illustrates the total population of each community located in the Northeast Avalon Region according to the census counts from Statistics Canada for all census years from 1981 to 2006. As is evident from Table 1, the population of the region has generally increased over the 25 year period from 1981 to 2006. There was a slight decline in population between 1996 and 2001, but population grew in each of the other census periods. The most recent population growth, between 2001 and 2006, is likely due to strong growth in the local economy and the continuation of a general trend towards urbanization. The combination of natural gains and in-migration from rural areas have increased the Northeast Avalon Region population even as the provincial population declined. A large portion of the Northeast Avalon Region is comprised of the City of St. John s and the suburban area around St. John's. The City of St. John s has recorded a 1.3% decline in population between 1981 and 2006 due to household aging and out-migration. As a result, the population growth for the Northeast Avalon Region has been largely due to the population gains in the City of Mount Pearl and the suburban communities of 3 www.economics.gov.nl.ca Economic Research and Analysis Division
Table 1 Total Population (Census Counts) by Community from 1981-2006 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Actual Change 1981-2006 Percentage Change 1981-2006 Holyrood 1,789 2,115 2,075 2,090 1,905 2,005 216 12.1% Conception Bay South 14,405 16,295 17,590 19,265 19,770 21,965 7,560 52.5% Paradise 3,309 5,826 7,376 7,960 9,600 12,585 9,276 280.3% Portugal Cove-St. Philips 3,855 4,768 5,471 5,770 5,870 6,575 2,720 70.6% Bell Island 4,861 4,610 4,185 3,595 3,080 2,780-2,081-42.8% Bauline 423 417 385 380 365 380-43 -10.2% Pouch Cove 1,896 1,961 1,976 1,885 1,670 1,760-136 -7.2% Flatrock 808 885 1,045 1,085 1,135 1,215 407 50.4% Torbay 3,534 3,886 4,707 5,230 5,470 6,280 2,746 77.7% Logy Bay-Middle Cove-Outer Cove 1,163 1,366 1,885 1,880 1,875 1,975 812 69.8% St. John's 101,974 103,083 104,635 101,935 99,180 100,650-1,324-1.3% Mount Pearl 17,487 20,293 23,690 25,520 24,960 24,670 7,183 41.1% Petty Harbour-Maddox Cove 853 975 975 955 950 915 62 7.3% Bay Bulls 1,150 1,115 1,065 1,065 1,015 1,080-70 -6.1% Witless Bay 1,058 1,020 1,065 1,115 1,060 1,070 12 1.1% TOTAL 158,565 168,616 178,125 179,730 177,905 185,905 27,340 17.2% Statistics Canada Conception Bay South, Paradise, Portugal Cove-St. Philips, Torbay, Logy Bay-Middle Cove-Outer Cove and Flatrock. As outlined in Table 1, the population of Paradise and Torbay has increased by approximately 280% and 78% respectively over the 25 year period. There were also significant gains in population in Mount Pearl, Conception Bay South, Flatrock, Logy Bay-Middle Cove-Outer Cove and Portugal Cove-St. Philips. The popularity of suburban life has increased significantly over the last two decades. The relatively cheaper cost of residential real estate was a driving factor in the beginning stages of each suburb. This was followed by major infrastructure developments which made living in these communities more convenient. The addition of major roadways, such as the downtown arterial and the Outer Ring Road has dramatically increased the accessibility of these communities. Some of these areas now provide major shopping centres and other businesses to satisfy the demands of a growing local population. The Northeast Avalon Region also includes some communities that are considered more rural. They are generally less accessible from the City of St. John s and tend to have smaller populations. Communities such as Bay Bulls, Bauline, Bell Island, and Witless Bay have seen declines or little change in their population compared to 1981, Economic Research and Analysis Division www.economics.gov.nl.ca 4
but most show improvements from 2001 to 2006 due, in part, to new highway infrastructure and strong regional economic growth. Population Change and Headship Rates 2 for the Northeast Avalon Region by Age Group Households In addition to trends in population, the change in households over time is valuable to planners and administrators. The number and composition of households in the region can help to inform policies, involving transportation, water and sewer infrastructure, residential construction and recreation services among others. Table 2 illustrates the total number of households in the Northeast Avalon Region according to the census conducted by Statistics Canada from 1981-2006. An increase in the Northeast Avalon Region population resulted in an increase in the number of households. However, declining births and aging of the population caused the average household size to * Headship Rate for the St. John's CMA decline. As a result, the number of households grew much faster than the population. For example, total population in the region increased by 17% between 1981 and 2006 while the number of households increased C d E R h da l by 62%. Most of these gains were in households headed by people 45 years of age or Avalon Region, 1981-2006 older. This reflects the increasing age of the baby boomers and aging of the population in general. 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance Table 2 Total Occupied Dwellings for the Northeast Actual Change 1981-2006 Percentage Change 1981-2006 Households 44,955 49,710 57,101 62,190 66,667 72,595 27,640 61.5% Average Household Size 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6-1.0-27.4% Statistics Canada 2. The headship rate for each age group is simply the number of households headed by a person in this age group divided by the total number of people in that age group. 5 www.economics.gov.nl.ca Economic Research and Analysis Division
Historical data for the age distribution of the head of each household in the Northeast Avalon Region are not available for each community in the region. However, statistics for the St. John s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) can be used to examine trends in the region. The St. John s CMA includes all the communities in the Northeast Avalon Region with the exception of Holyrood and Bell Island. The total number of households in the St. John s CMA has increased by approximately 62% from 1981 to 2006, but the composition of total population and households in the area has shifted. As can be seen in Table 3 below, a significant increase was recorded in the number of households headed by people in the 45 to 64 age groups while the number of households headed by people under 34 years declined. The trend toward smaller families (e.g. fewer children) and more single person dwellings were the main factors behind declining average household size. There are a number of factors behind the increase in single person households including growth in the number of divorced people and seniors living alone. Table 3 Households By Age of Household Head - St. John s CMA 1981 1991 1996 2001 2006 Actual Change 1981-2006 Percentage Change 1981-2006 Under 25 2,670 2,935 2,640 2,925 2,910 240 9.0% 25-34 12,250 13,100 12,525 11,065 11,155-1,095-8.9% 35-44 11,675 14,080 15,405 15,745 15,560 3,885 33.3% 45-54 7,340 9,480 12,100 14,575 15,890 8,550 116.5% 55-64 6,320 6,595 7,460 9,260 12,350 6,030 95.4% 65-74 5,050 5,655 5,820 6,190 7,090 2,040 40.4% 75+ 2,600 3,380 4,220 5,070 5,700 3,100 119.2% Statistics Canada Economic Research and Analysis Division www.economics.gov.nl.ca 6
2.0 Methodology 2.1 Assumptions This report involved projecting 5 year age cohorts by employing assumptions about cohort survival/retention rates and fertility rates. This projection method used information and assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration to determine population for each time period. Low, medium and high scenarios were produced for the region by varying the assumptions. 2.1.1 Fertility Rates For the low scenario, fertility rates continue to decline from the Northeast Avalon Region rate of 1.3 in 2005 to 1.1 in 2026. For the medium scenario, fertility rates remain constant at the average historical levels at 1.3. For the high scenario, fertility rates increase from the current Northeast Avalon Region rate of 1.3 in 2005 to 1.5 by 2026. 2.1.2 Net Migration and Mortality Rates Assumptions regarding mortality and net-migration were combined into one variable labeled the cohort survival/retention rate. This rate includes the net effects of deaths and migration on each cohort. Each cohort, other than the 0 to 4 year olds, which is determined by fertility rates, was assigned a rate based on some combination of 20 year trends or recent trends. For the low scenario, future cohort survival/retention rates were projected to remain at 20 year historical levels. 2.2 Rationale for Assumptions 2.2.1 Fertility In the low scenario fertility rates are assumed to continue to decline. There are several rationales for possible future declines in the fertility rate. Individuals are having fewer children due to increased education and labour force participation of women, better birth control, changing social attitudes regarding gender equity and women having children later in life. In the medium scenario, fertility rates remain constant. This is quite plausible considering that they are the lowest in the country. An increase in the fertility rate in the Northeast Avalon Region is projected in the high scenario. One factor that may contribute to this increase is the growing incomes and economic opportunities in the region. All other provinces in Canada have a higher fertility rate than the Northeast Avalon Region and as incomes and employment increase, fertility rates could rise to rates experienced in other regions of the country. The high scenario assumes that the region s fertility rate increases to coincide more closely with the rest of the country. 2.2.2 Mortality and Net Migration (Cohort Survival/Retention) Historical levels of net migration in the region show that individuals leaving outweighed individuals migrating in during the 1991 to 2001 period, but net in-migration occurred between 2001 and 2006. In the low scenario, the average of these historical migration trends are assumed to continue through the projected years as a result of the completion of major construction projects (e.g. oil projects) and the propensity for the province s skilled labour to migrate to other provinces. For the medium scenario, future cohort survival/retention rates were a combination of recent trends and historical values. For the high scenario, future cohort survival/retention rates were assumed to continue recent trends. For the medium scenario, net migration rates were set halfway between historical averages (low scenario) and recent trends (high scenario). This increase may occur as a result of major construction projects in the region, increasing local job opportunities due to retirements, and/or the growing number of individuals who reside in the province but work elsewhere in the country. 7 www.economics.gov.nl.ca Economic Research and Analysis Division
The high scenario assumes migration rates continue at recent trends (2001 to 2006). This scenario could unfold as several major projects are developed in the province and the number of people who reside in but work outside the province continues to grow. 2.3 Description of Population Scenarios Below is a summary of the assumptions for each scenario presented in this report. For the low scenario we combine a declining fertility rate and a cohort survival/retention rate based on historical data. The medium scenario includes a constant fertility rate and a cohort survival rate based on a combination of recent trends and historical data. The high scenario includes the assumptions of an increasing fertility rate and recent trends for cohort survival/retention. Table 4 Scenario Descriptions Fertility Rate Cohort Survival/ Retention Low Scenario 1.1 (decreasing) Historical Medium Scenario 1.3 (constant) Recent Trends/Historical High Scenario 1.5 (increasing) Recent Trends 2.4 Household Projections The population projections, in conjunction with 2006 headship rates, were used to project the number of households in the Northeast Avalon Region. Households were projected by applying the 2006 age-specific headship rates to corresponding population age groups for all three population scenarios (high, medium and low). Economic Research and Analysis Division www.economics.gov.nl.ca 8
3.0 Population and Household Projection Results 3.1 Population Three different population scenarios for the Northeast Avalon Region were produced using various assumptions for fertility and cohort survival/retention rates. Total Population Northeast Avalon, 1981 to 2026p Table 5 Total Projected Population Under Three Scenarios Population in 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Low Scenario 185,905 189,408 187,908 184,671 179,958 Medium Scenario 185,905 192,616 197,466 199,944 200,820 High Scenario 185,905 197,518 205,894 213,738 220,760 Table 5 presents three different population projection scenarios for the Northeast Avalon Region. It shows that the region s population will grow over the projection period in both the medium and high scenarios. However, the low scenario projects a gradual decrease in the population over the 2006-2026 period. The high scenario s assumptions of a high fertility rate and high net in-migration increase the population of the region from 185,525 in 2006 to 220,760 in 2026. This represents an increase of approximately 19% over the last census count in 2006. The medium scenario projects a smaller increase in the population. A constant fertility rate and a combination of historical and recent trends for migration increase the population to 200,820 in 2026, representing an increase of about 8% over the 2006 Census. Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance the projected time period. The low scenario gradually decreases the population to roughly 179,960 in 2026, a decline of about 3% from 2006. However, by 2011, there is a slight increase of approximately 2% before the population begins to decline. 3.2 Households Using the population projections and the 2006 historical headship rates for the region the number of households are projected under each of the three scenarios from 2006 to 2026. Table 6 shows that the region s households will grow in all three scenarios. However, there is a slight decrease projected between 2021 and 2026 under the low scenario. A decline in the fertility rate and historical cohort/retention rates project a modest decrease in the population of the region over 9 www.economics.gov.nl.ca Economic Research and Analysis Division
Table 6 Total Projected Households Population Change 2006 to 2026p by Age Group Households in 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Low Scenario 72,651 76,487 78,182 78,552 78,002 Medium Scenario 72,651 77,692 82,082 84,766 86,361 High Scenario 72,651 80,000 85,754 90,359 94,095 The number of households in the region grows at a higher rate than the population under all three scenarios. The high scenario shows population growth of 19% between 2006 and 2026 but the number of households increase by 30%. Under the medium scenario, households increase by approximately 19% while the population increases by about 8%. Under the low scenario, households increase by 7% while the population decreases by approximately 3%. There is also significant aging of the population with more and more of the primary household maintainers over the age of 60. The increase in households is due to the population gain in age groups 55 years and over where headship rates are the highest. At the same time the size of the population less than 25 years, Total Households Northeast Avalon, 1981 to 2026p Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance where headship rates are very low, is actually declining. The chart above shows the population gains in the 55 and over age groups. The growth in older age groups is due to aging baby boomers while low fertility rates and declining births reduce younger age groups. The increase in the older age groups occurs in all scenarios while the number of households headed by younger age groups decrease under all three scenarios. As household formation outpaces population growth there is a natural decline in average household size. This occurs as the incidences of one-person and two-person households increase in the region. As the baby boomers continue to age and their children mature and leave home, two-person households become more common. In addition, the death of a spouse in an older household will result in more one-person households as the population ages. Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance Economic Research and Analysis Division www.economics.gov.nl.ca 10
4.0 Summary History Population in the Northeast Avalon Region increased from 1981 to 2006 while the population of the province decreased. Migration of generally young people from rural areas for educational and economic opportunities has favoured the Northeast Avalon Region. Most of the population gains in the Northeast Avalon Region from 1981 to 2006 were in suburban areas. New infrastructure and the preference for suburban lifestyles were the driving forces behind the gains in suburban population. In the 1980s, the downtown arterial led to population gains in the City of Mount Pearl and the completion of the Outer Ring Road in 1998 greatly enhanced commuter access to Conception Bay South and Paradise. The number of households has increased along with the region s population. However, the number of households has been growing at a much faster rate than the population. An aging population and an increased prevalence of single person households were the main factors behind the stronger growth in the number of households. Future Population Future population growth of the Northeast Avalon Region will depend on fertility and migration trends. Medium and high scenarios for the region predict further population growth over the 2006 to 2026 period with total growth of 8% and 19% respectively. The low scenario predicts modest population decline as the population ages. The population continues to age under all scenarios due to low fertility rates and aging baby boomers. Households The number of households in the region grows over the projection period under all three scenarios as aging of the population con- tinues to reduce the average household size. As a result, the rate of household growth continues to be higher than the rate of population growth. Household growth is modest under the low scenario (8%), but significant under the high scenario (30%). Household formation and population growth are projected to continue in areas with land available for development within short commuting distances to St. John's. Recent growth centres such as Torbay, Paradise, and Conception Bay South are expected to have continued growth in their populations in the coming years. 11 www.economics.gov.nl.ca Economic Research and Analysis Division
Economic Research and Analysis Division www.economics.gov.nl.ca 12
5.0 Glossary Baby Boomer: A person born between 1947-1966. This was a 20 year period of higher than normal fertility and birth rates throughout the industrial world. Cohort: A group of subjects from a given population defined by experiencing an event (typically birth) in a particular time span. Cohort Survival/Retention Rate: The percentage of each age group that survives/is retained over a 5 year period. For example, if there are 1,000 people in the 15-24 age group (cohort) in 2001, and there are 800 in this same cohort (20-24 age group) in 2006, the survival/retention rate for that cohort is simply 800/1000 = 80%. Demographics: Characteristics of the population, such as size, age distribution, vital statistics (i.e., births, deaths), geographic dispersion and mobility (i.e., migration). Headship Rate: The number of households headed by a person in a particular age group divided by the total number of people in that age group. Natural Population Change: The number of births minus the number of deaths in an area. Net migration: The difference between the number of individuals coming into an area (in-migration) and the number of people leaving an area (out-migration) over a period of time. St. John s CMA: Includes all the communities within the Northeast Avalon Region with the exception of Holyrood and Bell Island. Total Fertility Rate: The number of births per women of childbearing age (15-49) at current fertility rates. 13 www.economics.gov.nl.ca Economic Research and Analysis Division
Economic Research and Analysis Division www.economics.gov.nl.ca 14
6.0 Appendices 15 www.economics.gov.nl.ca Economic Research and Analysis Division
Economic Research and Analysis Division www.economics.gov.nl.ca 16
Appendix A - Population Projections Population Projections - Northeast Avalon Regional Plan Area Scenario 1 - Low Population by Gender and Five Year Age Groups, 1986 to 2026 Total 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 + 1986 168,665 12,630 13,325 14,105 14,950 17,275 15,850 14,865 13,440 10,555 7,815 6,740 6,290 5,645 5,165 4,300 2,835 1,535 900 445 1991 178,210 12,070 12,900 13,495 14,705 16,665 16,830 15,860 14,895 13,335 10,520 7,730 6,470 5,950 5,235 4,540 3,530 2,065 885 530 1996 179,675 10,365 12,095 13,015 13,730 15,220 14,670 15,730 15,410 14,715 13,055 10,135 7,300 6,105 5,375 4,645 3,735 2,570 1,285 520 2001 177,975 9,265 10,220 11,905 12,940 14,370 12,575 13,435 15,210 15,030 14,425 12,665 9,740 6,970 5,625 4,820 3,815 2,725 1,575 665 2006 185,845 9,370 9,895 10,700 12,490 14,400 13,130 13,085 13,870 15,585 15,195 14,400 12,585 9,585 6,665 5,180 4,095 2,995 1,785 835 2011 189,410 8,961 9,718 10,127 11,086 13,905 13,246 13,024 13,103 13,912 15,508 15,076 14,067 12,249 9,013 6,060 4,313 3,140 1,929 973 2016 187,910 8,437 9,120 9,805 10,279 11,723 12,472 12,832 12,812 12,941 13,759 15,170 14,541 13,446 11,381 7,979 4,971 3,200 1,955 1,087 2021 184,670 7,676 8,563 9,159 9,900 10,748 10,592 12,131 12,618 12,607 12,765 13,449 14,624 13,894 12,497 10,080 6,568 3,681 1,978 1,140 2026 179,957 6,824 7,801 8,598 9,259 10,310 9,847 10,409 11,961 12,412 12,428 12,493 12,987 13,996 12,905 11,080 8,300 4,885 2,294 1,168 Males 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 + 1986 82,410 6,460 6,825 7,295 7,515 8,400 7,660 7,250 6,625 5,235 3,935 3,335 3,030 2,760 2,340 1,775 1,095 500 245 130 1991 86,875 6,075 6,620 6,935 7,570 8,015 8,160 7,680 7,325 6,575 5,240 3,935 3,180 2,835 2,445 1,945 1,320 675 240 105 1996 86,600 5,265 6,125 6,655 6,950 7,400 7,050 7,430 7,385 7,180 6,400 4,980 3,645 2,940 2,435 2,030 1,440 825 365 100 2001 85,180 4,760 5,175 6,045 6,545 6,865 6,050 6,345 7,170 7,185 6,970 6,195 4,780 3,405 2,635 2,075 1,535 890 425 130 2006 88,860 4,790 5,100 5,430 6,265 6,890 6,210 6,285 6,530 7,375 7,250 6,965 6,110 4,660 3,195 2,370 1,640 1,115 510 170 2011 90,297 4,570 4,996 5,226 5,568 6,601 6,254 6,145 6,298 6,549 7,316 7,187 6,772 5,872 4,260 2,844 1,842 1,148 653 196 2016 88,925 4,303 4,680 5,048 5,245 5,574 5,878 5,983 6,037 6,208 6,473 7,148 6,885 6,388 5,245 3,585 2,155 1,208 628 254 2021 86,648 3,915 4,395 4,704 5,044 5,183 4,975 5,680 5,873 5,929 6,116 6,318 6,849 6,491 5,707 4,417 2,715 1,413 661 263 2026 83,597 3,480 4,005 4,416 4,700 4,972 4,679 4,851 5,603 5,764 5,837 5,979 6,063 6,469 5,794 4,800 3,343 1,784 781 277 Females 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 + 1986 86,255 6,170 6,500 6,810 7,435 8,875 8,190 7,615 6,815 5,320 3,880 3,405 3,260 2,885 2,825 2,525 1,740 1,035 655 315 1991 91,335 5,995 6,280 6,560 7,135 8,650 8,670 8,180 7,570 6,760 5,280 3,795 3,290 3,115 2,790 2,595 2,210 1,390 645 425 1996 93,075 5,100 5,970 6,360 6,780 7,820 7,620 8,300 8,025 7,535 6,655 5,155 3,655 3,165 2,940 2,615 2,295 1,745 920 420 2001 92,795 4,505 5,045 5,860 6,395 7,505 6,525 7,090 8,040 7,845 7,455 6,470 4,960 3,565 2,990 2,745 2,280 1,835 1,150 535 2006 96,985 4,580 4,795 5,270 6,225 7,510 6,920 6,800 7,340 8,210 7,945 7,435 6,475 4,925 3,470 2,810 2,455 1,880 1,275 665 2011 99,113 4,391 4,722 4,901 5,518 7,304 6,992 6,879 6,805 7,363 8,192 7,889 7,295 6,377 4,753 3,216 2,471 1,992 1,276 777 2016 98,985 4,134 4,440 4,757 5,034 6,149 6,594 6,849 6,775 6,733 7,286 8,022 7,656 7,058 6,136 4,394 2,816 1,992 1,327 833 2021 98,022 3,761 4,168 4,455 4,856 5,565 5,617 6,451 6,745 6,678 6,649 7,131 7,775 7,403 6,790 5,663 3,853 2,268 1,317 877 2026 96,360 3,344 3,796 4,182 4,559 5,338 5,168 5,558 6,358 6,648 6,591 6,514 6,924 7,527 7,111 6,280 4,957 3,101 1,513 891 17 www.economics.gov.nl.ca Economic Research and Analysis Division
Population Projections - Northeast Avalon Regional Plan Area Scenario 2 - Medium Population by Gender and Five Year Age Groups, 1986 to 2026 Total 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 + 1986 168,665 12,630 13,325 14,105 14,950 17,275 15,850 14,865 13,440 10,555 7,815 6,740 6,290 5,645 5,165 4,300 2,835 1,535 900 445 1991 178,210 12,070 12,900 13,495 14,705 16,665 16,830 15,860 14,895 13,335 10,520 7,730 6,470 5,950 5,235 4,540 3,530 2,065 885 530 1996 179,675 10,365 12,095 13,015 13,730 15,220 14,670 15,730 15,410 14,715 13,055 10,135 7,300 6,105 5,375 4,645 3,735 2,570 1,285 520 2001 177,975 9,265 10,220 11,905 12,940 14,370 12,575 13,435 15,210 15,030 14,425 12,665 9,740 6,970 5,625 4,820 3,815 2,725 1,575 665 2006 185,845 9,370 9,895 10,700 12,490 14,400 13,130 13,085 13,870 15,585 15,195 14,400 12,585 9,585 6,665 5,180 4,095 2,995 1,785 835 2011 192,616 9,355 9,906 10,274 11,192 14,090 13,517 13,369 13,453 14,129 15,661 15,241 14,257 12,434 9,108 6,150 4,388 3,175 1,944 973 2016 197,466 9,374 9,784 10,034 10,418 12,300 14,082 13,328 13,530 13,714 14,167 15,638 15,089 14,085 11,868 8,372 5,187 3,355 2,066 1,075 2021 199,945 9,163 9,787 9,847 10,105 11,213 12,445 13,754 13,457 13,716 13,715 14,071 15,403 14,792 13,382 10,792 7,048 3,935 2,150 1,170 2026 200,818 8,714 9,567 9,839 9,917 10,823 11,581 12,245 13,833 13,600 13,686 13,604 13,855 15,103 14,017 12,169 9,103 5,363 2,558 1,241 Males 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 + 1986 82,410 6,460 6,825 7,295 7,515 8,400 7,660 7,250 6,625 5,235 3,935 3,335 3,030 2,760 2,340 1,775 1,095 500 245 130 1991 86,875 6,075 6,620 6,935 7,570 8,015 8,160 7,680 7,325 6,575 5,240 3,935 3,180 2,835 2,445 1,945 1,320 675 240 105 1996 86,600 5,265 6,125 6,655 6,950 7,400 7,050 7,430 7,385 7,180 6,400 4,980 3,645 2,940 2,435 2,030 1,440 825 365 100 2001 85,180 4,760 5,175 6,045 6,545 6,865 6,050 6,345 7,170 7,185 6,970 6,195 4,780 3,405 2,635 2,075 1,535 890 425 130 2006 88,860 4,790 5,100 5,430 6,265 6,890 6,210 6,285 6,530 7,375 7,250 6,965 6,110 4,660 3,195 2,370 1,640 1,115 510 170 2011 91,849 4,771 5,094 5,298 5,626 6,696 6,404 6,302 6,452 6,665 7,369 7,265 6,859 5,956 4,319 2,893 1,871 1,154 659 196 2016 93,768 4,781 5,038 5,150 5,332 5,937 6,631 6,269 6,337 6,639 6,670 7,336 7,119 6,695 5,533 3,859 2,243 1,276 667 256 2021 94,315 4,673 5,047 5,059 5,147 5,499 5,932 6,438 6,288 6,483 6,634 6,606 7,162 6,891 6,168 4,824 2,968 1,495 721 280 2026 93,987 4,444 4,932 5,063 5,057 5,289 5,587 5,787 6,441 6,405 6,466 6,565 6,451 6,937 6,330 5,364 3,712 1,979 865 313 Females 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 + 1986 86,255 6,170 6,500 6,810 7,435 8,875 8,190 7,615 6,815 5,320 3,880 3,405 3,260 2,885 2,825 2,525 1,740 1,035 655 315 1991 91,335 5,995 6,280 6,560 7,135 8,650 8,670 8,180 7,570 6,760 5,280 3,795 3,290 3,115 2,790 2,595 2,210 1,390 645 425 1996 93,075 5,100 5,970 6,360 6,780 7,820 7,620 8,300 8,025 7,535 6,655 5,155 3,655 3,165 2,940 2,615 2,295 1,745 920 420 2001 92,795 4,505 5,045 5,860 6,395 7,505 6,525 7,090 8,040 7,845 7,455 6,470 4,960 3,565 2,990 2,745 2,280 1,835 1,150 535 2006 96,985 4,580 4,795 5,270 6,225 7,510 6,920 6,800 7,340 8,210 7,945 7,435 6,475 4,925 3,470 2,810 2,455 1,880 1,275 665 2011 100,767 4,584 4,812 4,976 5,566 7,394 7,113 7,067 7,001 7,464 8,292 7,976 7,398 6,478 4,789 3,257 2,517 2,021 1,285 777 2016 103,698 4,593 4,746 4,884 5,086 6,363 7,451 7,059 7,193 7,075 7,497 8,302 7,970 7,390 6,335 4,513 2,944 2,079 1,399 819 2021 105,630 4,490 4,740 4,788 4,958 5,714 6,513 7,316 7,169 7,233 7,081 7,465 8,241 7,901 7,214 5,968 4,080 2,440 1,429 890 2026 106,831 4,270 4,635 4,776 4,860 5,534 5,994 6,458 7,392 7,195 7,220 7,039 7,404 8,166 7,687 6,805 5,391 3,384 1,693 928 Economic Research and Analysis Division www.economics.gov.nl.ca 18
Population Projections - Northeast Avalon Regional Plan Area Scenario 3 - High Population by Gender and Five Year Age Groups, 1986 to 2026 Total 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 + 1986 168,665 12,630 13,325 14,105 14,950 17,275 15,850 14,865 13,440 10,555 7,815 6,740 6,290 5,645 5,165 4,300 2,835 1,535 900 445 1991 178,210 12,070 12,900 13,495 14,705 16,665 16,830 15,860 14,895 13,335 10,520 7,730 6,470 5,950 5,235 4,540 3,530 2,065 885 530 1996 179,675 10,365 12,095 13,015 13,730 15,220 14,670 15,730 15,410 14,715 13,055 10,135 7,300 6,105 5,375 4,645 3,735 2,570 1,285 520 2001 177,975 9,265 10,220 11,905 12,940 14,370 12,575 13,435 15,210 15,030 14,425 12,665 9,740 6,970 5,625 4,820 3,815 2,725 1,575 665 2006 185,845 9,370 9,895 10,700 12,490 14,400 13,130 13,085 13,870 15,585 15,195 14,400 12,585 9,585 6,665 5,180 4,095 2,995 1,785 835 2011 197,517 9,975 10,239 10,137 10,836 13,937 15,579 13,319 13,993 14,655 15,947 15,225 14,582 12,758 9,445 6,226 4,460 3,210 1,998 996 2016 205,895 10,672 10,627 10,349 10,081 11,604 14,877 15,166 13,940 14,550 14,851 15,890 15,298 14,650 12,459 8,795 5,324 3,487 2,160 1,115 2021 213,736 10,839 11,428 10,706 10,355 10,868 12,783 14,735 15,622 14,460 14,730 14,797 15,932 15,333 14,266 11,621 7,511 4,177 2,354 1,219 2026 220,762 10,668 11,651 11,526 10,746 11,199 12,251 12,883 15,179 16,205 14,642 14,680 14,843 15,993 14,902 13,322 9,945 5,926 2,861 1,340 Males 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 + 1986 82,410 6,460 6,825 7,295 7,515 8,400 7,660 7,250 6,625 5,235 3,935 3,335 3,030 2,760 2,340 1,775 1,095 500 245 130 1991 86,875 6,075 6,620 6,935 7,570 8,015 8,160 7,680 7,325 6,575 5,240 3,935 3,180 2,835 2,445 1,945 1,320 675 240 105 1996 86,600 5,265 6,125 6,655 6,950 7,400 7,050 7,430 7,385 7,180 6,400 4,980 3,645 2,940 2,435 2,030 1,440 825 365 100 2001 85,180 4,760 5,175 6,045 6,545 6,865 6,050 6,345 7,170 7,185 6,970 6,195 4,780 3,405 2,635 2,075 1,535 890 425 130 2006 88,860 4,790 5,100 5,430 6,265 6,890 6,210 6,285 6,530 7,375 7,250 6,965 6,110 4,660 3,195 2,370 1,640 1,115 510 170 2011 94,298 5,087 5,299 5,220 5,470 6,791 7,448 6,222 6,676 7,047 7,568 7,206 6,942 6,113 4,500 2,910 1,835 1,128 623 213 2016 98,009 5,443 5,493 5,341 5,167 5,690 7,220 7,160 6,450 7,075 7,154 7,498 7,112 6,888 5,867 4,048 2,236 1,255 649 263 2021 101,299 5,528 5,896 5,516 5,313 5,380 6,188 7,105 7,290 6,812 7,187 7,106 7,396 7,045 6,601 5,265 3,110 1,544 735 282 2026 104,136 5,441 6,008 5,931 5,513 5,587 5,964 6,182 7,242 7,696 6,924 7,152 7,021 7,343 6,740 5,918 4,049 2,159 934 332 Females 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 + 1986 86,255 6,170 6,500 6,810 7,435 8,875 8,190 7,615 6,815 5,320 3,880 3,405 3,260 2,885 2,825 2,525 1,740 1,035 655 315 1991 91,335 5,995 6,280 6,560 7,135 8,650 8,670 8,180 7,570 6,760 5,280 3,795 3,290 3,115 2,790 2,595 2,210 1,390 645 425 1996 93,075 5,100 5,970 6,360 6,780 7,820 7,620 8,300 8,025 7,535 6,655 5,155 3,655 3,165 2,940 2,615 2,295 1,745 920 420 2001 92,795 4,505 5,045 5,860 6,395 7,505 6,525 7,090 8,040 7,845 7,455 6,470 4,960 3,565 2,990 2,745 2,280 1,835 1,150 535 2006 96,985 4,580 4,795 5,270 6,225 7,510 6,920 6,800 7,340 8,210 7,945 7,435 6,475 4,925 3,470 2,810 2,455 1,880 1,275 665 2011 103,219 4,888 4,940 4,917 5,366 7,146 8,131 7,097 7,317 7,608 8,379 8,019 7,640 6,645 4,945 3,316 2,625 2,082 1,375 783 2016 107,886 5,229 5,134 5,008 4,914 5,914 7,657 8,006 7,490 7,475 7,697 8,392 8,186 7,762 6,592 4,747 3,088 2,232 1,511 852 2021 112,437 5,311 5,532 5,190 5,042 5,488 6,595 7,630 8,332 7,648 7,543 7,691 8,536 8,288 7,665 6,356 4,401 2,633 1,619 937 2026 116,626 5,227 5,643 5,595 5,233 5,612 6,287 6,701 7,937 8,509 7,718 7,528 7,822 8,650 8,162 7,404 5,896 3,767 1,927 1,008 19 www.economics.gov.nl.ca Economic Research and Analysis Division
Economic Research and Analysis Division www.economics.gov.nl.ca 20
Appendix B - Household Projections Scenario 1 - Low Household Projections - Northeast Avalon Regional Plan Area Primary Household Maintainer by Five Year Age Groups, 2006 to 2026 Total < 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 + 2006 72,651 2,984 11,307 15,896 16,367 12,821 7,388 5,888 2011 76,487 2,822 11,324 14,601 16,854 15,153 9,410 6,323 2016 78,182 2,587 10,903 13,918 15,910 16,034 11,962 6,868 2021 78,552 2,412 9,792 13,590 14,447 16,251 13,875 8,185 2026 78,002 2,242 8,730 13,123 13,733 15,334 14,672 10,168 Scenario 2 - Medium Household Projections - Northeast Avalon Regional Plan Area Primary Household Maintainer by Five Year Age Groups, 2006 to 2026 Total < 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 + 2006 72,651 2,984 11,307 15,896 16,367 12,821 7,388 5,888 2011 77,692 2,876 11,590 14,907 17,022 15,365 9,535 6,397 2016 82,082 2,719 11,814 14,729 16,382 16,703 12,574 7,161 2021 84,766 2,622 11,293 14,652 15,333 17,173 14,921 8,772 2026 86,361 2,556 10,277 14,782 15,068 16,428 16,073 11,177 Scenario 3 - High Household Projections - Northeast Avalon Regional Plan Area Primary Household Maintainer by Five Year Age Groups, 2006 to 2026 Total < 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 + 2006 72,651 2,984 11,307 15,896 16,367 12,821 7,388 5,888 2011 80,000 2,887 12,459 15,506 17,176 15,705 9,794 6,473 2016 85,754 2,788 12,961 15,393 16,964 17,062 13,226 7,360 2021 90,359 2,832 11,878 16,212 16,367 17,730 16,019 9,321 2026 94,095 2,914 10,849 16,965 16,214 17,543 17,347 12,263 21 www.economics.gov.nl.ca Economic Research and Analysis Division
Economic Research and Analysis Division www.economics.gov.nl.ca 22
Appendix C - Births, Deaths and Natural Population Change Births, Deaths and Natural Population Change - Northeast Avalon Regional Plan Area, 1991 to 2005 Births Deaths Natural Population Change 1991 2,548 1,224 1,325 1992 2,342 1,209 1,134 1993 2,241 1,169 1,073 1994 2,120 1,274 847 1995 2,054 1,249 805 1996 2,058 1,219 839 1997 2,042 1,279 764 1998 1,867 1,394 473 1999 1,766 1,274 492 2000 1,905 1,324 581 2001 1,855 1,314 541 2002 1,785 1,285 500 2003 1,861 1,325 536 2004 1,872 1,326 546 2005 1,877 1,387 490 Community Accounts 23 www.economics.gov.nl.ca Economic Research and Analysis Division
Northeast Avalon Region Economics and Statistics Branch Department of Finance Tel: (709) 729-3255 Fax: (709) 729-6944 E-mail: infoera@gov.nl.ca www.economics.gov.nl.ca