New Brunswick Regional Profiles. Southwest Profile

New Brunswick Regional Profiles Southwest Profile Department of Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour June 2012

Table of Contents Introduction... 1 Geography... 1 Major Facilities... 1 Population Characteristics... 2 Settlement Patterns... 2 Current Population Estimates Southwest Region (2005-2010)... 4 Population Profile using Historical Census Population Data... 4 Population by Age... 5 Population Change (1991-2006)... 5 Population by Gender... 6 Knowledge of Official Languages... 7 Migration... 8 Education... 12 Employment by Occupation... 14 Income... 18 Individual Income... 18 Family Income... 21 Social Assistance Recipients... 23 Employment Insurance Beneficiaries... 24 Industry... 27 Labour Market Characteristics... 32 Appendices... 38 Appendix A - Population and Dwelling Counts... 38 Appendix B - Examples of Most Common Occupations by Sector (NB)... 40 Southwest Profile / ii

Table 1: Southwest Population by Settlement Type... 3 Table 2: Annual Population Estimates... 4 Table 3: Southwest Population by County and Census Year... 4 Table 4: Southwest Population by Age and County... 5 Table 5: Regional Population by Age (Census Years)... 5 Table 6: Southwest Population by Age, Sex and County (2006)... 6 Table 7: Southwest Region Population by Knowledge of Official Languages (2006)... 7 Table 8: Population (Age 25-64) with Post-secondary Qualifications by Major Field of Study... 13 Table 9: Employment by Occupational Classification... 15 Table 10: Income of Individuals... 18 Table 11: Average Family Income... 22 Table 12: Employment Insurance Beneficiaries by Major Occupational Classification... 24 Table 13: Employment Insurance Beneficiaries by Skill Level... 26 Table 14: Employment by Sector (2001-2010)... 31 Table 15: Characteristics of the Labour Market... 37 Southwest Profile / iii

List of Figures Figure 1: Southwest Economic Region... 1 Figure 2: Southwest Cities and Counties... 2 Figure 3: Southwest Population by Settlement Type... 3 Figure 4: Southwest Population by Age (Census Years)... 6 Figure 5: Knowledge of Official Languages (2006)... 7 Figure 6: Net Impact of All Migration... 8 Figure 7: Net Impact of Migration by Age... 9 Figure 8: Components of Population Migration... 10 Figure 9: Components of Population Migration... 11 Figure 10: Components of Population Migration... 11 Figure 11: Highest Educational Attainment (2006)... 12 Figure 12: Educational Attainment by Age (2006)... 13 Figure 13: Employment by Occupation (2010)... 14 Figure 14: Change in Employment by Occupation (2007-2010)... 16 Figure 15: Trends in Employment by Occupation... 17 Figure 16: Distribution of Individual Income... 19 Figure 17: Composition of Individual Income... 20 Figure 18: Distribution of Family Income... 21 Figure 19: Composition of Family Income... 22 Figure 20: Number of Persons Receiving Social Assistance (TAP)... 23 Figure 21: Employment Insurance Beneficiaries by Major Occupational Classification... 25 Figure 22: Employment Trends by Nature of Industry... 28 Figure 23: Employment by Nature of Industry... 29 Figure 24: Employment by Sector (2010)... 30 Figure 25: Southwest Labour Force Characteristics... 33 Figure 26: Unemployment Rate... 34 Figure 27: Employment Rate... 35 Figure 28: Participation Rate... 36 Southwest Profile / iv

Profile: Southwest Economic Region Introduction The purpose of this profile is to give users a broad understanding of the demographic and industrial make-up of the Southwest Economic Region. The majority of the data used in this analysis is from Statistics Canada s Labour Force Survey and 2006 Census. Statistics Canada recognizes five economic regions in New Brunswick (NB), with each of the five regions containing three counties. This profile focuses on the Southwest Economic Region. The Southwest Economic Region refers to Kings County, and St. John and Charlotte counties which border on the Bay of Fundy. In order to improve readability, Southwest Economic Region is often shortened to the Southwest or region throughout this document. Geography There are three counties in Southwest New Brunswick: Kings (3,482 km 2 ), St. John (1,462 km 2 ), and Charlotte ( 3,424 km 2 ) encompassing a total land area of 8,368 square kilometres. Figure 1: Southwest Economic Region Major Facilities The Southwest is served by a major international port facility in Saint John, a southern railway linking to the United States (USA), and a major highway system linking the USA to the Trans-Canada Highway in Southeastern New Brunswick. Saint John is also the site of an international airport. The city of Saint John dominates the economy of the region, and is one of New Brunswick s Census Metropolitan Areas (CMA s) which also includes the towns of Rothesay, Quispamsis, Hampton and Grand Bay-Westfield (located in adjacent Kings County). Southwest Profile / 1

Figure 2: Southwest Cities and Counties Charlotte Saint John Population Characteristics Settlement Patterns 1 The county of St. John is heavily influenced by the city of Saint John with some 68,000 of the 74,600 county residents found in the city. Charlotte County is made up of small towns, villages, and local service districts with a single larger centre in St. Stephen approaching 5,000 persons. Kings County is a mixture of small centres which are based on primary resources, and two large towns (Rothesay and Quispamsis) which are part of the Saint John Census Metropolitan Area 2 (CMA) 3 (approximately 27,000 persons out of a county total of 65,800). As a result, it can be seen in Figure 3 that population is heavily concentrated in larger settlements. 1 Detailed information on individual communities in this region is provided in Appendix A. 2 A detailed description of the Census Metropolitan Area is contained in Appendix B. 3 While it would be an inconsistent analysis for comparison with other regional profiles, it is interesting to note that the CMA of Saint John accounts for approximately 59 per cent of the total population in the Southwest region. Southwest Profile / 2

Table 1: Southwest Population by Settlement Type Southwest Population by Settlement Type Census 2006 Census 2001 Change 2001-2006 Cities 68,043 69,661-1,618 Towns and Villages 54,514 53,192 1,322 Local Service Districts 7,650 7,393 257 Source: Statistics Canada - 2001 and 2006 Census Figure 3: Southwest Population by Settlement Type Southwest Population by Settlement Type (2006) Local Service Districts 6% Towns and Villages 42% Cities 52% Data Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census Southwest Profile / 3

Current Population Estimates 4 for the Southwest Region (2005-2010) As a region, the Southwest population is growing, however as experienced elsewhere in New Brunswick that growth is not evenly distributed across all centres within the region. Some areas within the region are growing (Kings and Charlotte Counties) while other areas are contracting (St. John County). Table 2: Annual Population Estimates Annual Population Estimates 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Diff % Change 2005-2010 NB 747,960 745,674 745,515 746,902 749,324 751,755 3,795 0.51 Southwest 171,696 170,971 171,366 171,831 172,823 173,630 1,934 1.13 Source: Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 91-214-X, February 2011 Population Profile using Historical Census 5 Population Data It can be seen in Table 3 that St. John County is experiencing a population decline. Conversely, Kings County is experiencing growth and this is known to be largely in the communities of Rothesay and Quispamsis. Charlotte County has experienced a very small amount of growth. Table 3: Southwest Population by County and Census Year Southwest Population by County and Census Years 1991 1996 2001 2006 1991-2006 Change New Brunswick 723,900 738,135 729,498 729,997 6,097 1 Southwest 170,190 171,360 167,981 167,343-2,847-2 St. John 81,460 79,305 76,407 74,621-6,839-8 Charlotte 26,610 27,335 27,366 26,898 288 1 Kings 62,120 64,720 64,208 65,824 3,704 6 Source: Statistics Canada - 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006 Census 1991-2006 (% Change) 4 Current information concerning New Brunswick population estimates are from the Demography Division of Statistics Canada. These estimates are calculated each year based on the most recent information available. Readers will note that these data will be slightly different from census data. The Census is only conducted every five years. 5 Census implies headcount of all persons in Canada on July 1st of that census year. It is very difficult to count every single person in every single location across Canada. As a result, there will be small differences between Census of Canada counts and Statistics Canada s Demographic Estimates. However, the differences are very small and census information is still a reliable means to analyze changes in Canadian population over extended periods of time (decades). Southwest Profile / 4

Population by Age The age distribution for the relatively urban population of this region is comparable to province wide data. St. John and Kings Counties have a slightly younger population than Charlotte County, the more rural of the counties. Table 4: Southwest Population by Age and County TOTAL POPULATION of Southwest Region: By AGE and COUNTY (2006) NB Saint John County Charlotte County Kings County Southwest Region Working Age Groups (Region) Both Sexes 730,000 74,620 26,900 65,825 167,345 0-14 118,250 11,790 4,575 12,880 29,245 15-24 92,335 9,990 3,120 8,375 21,485 25-54 317,010 32,085 11,400 28,120 71,605 43% 83% 55-64 94,765 8,930 3,365 8,405 20,700 12% 65+ 107,635 11,825 4,440 8,045 24,310 Median age 41.5 41.1 42.2 40.1 41.1 Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census Population Change Over Time (1991-2006) When the population is analyzed by age groups, it can be seen that both children and youth, and, core working age groups have declined over the past 15 years. In a province with an aging population, this region also shows a rapid increase in both the older worker and senior age cohorts. Table 5: Regional Population by Age (Census Years) Regional Population by Age (Census Years) 1991 1996 2001 2006 Change 1991-2006 % Change 1991-2006 0-24 yrs Children and Youth 61,535 59,210 54,350 50,730-10,805-18% 25-54 yrs Core Working Age 72,350 75,205 74,340 71,605-745 -1% 55-64 yrs Older Workers 13,970 14,180 16,190 20,700 6,730 48% 65+ yrs Seniors 22,340 22,790 23,080 24,310 1,970 9% Source: Statistics Canada - 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006 Census Southwest Profile / 5

Figure 4: Southwest Population by Age (Census Years) Number of Persons 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Southwest Population by Age (Census Years) 1991 1996 2001 2006 Source: Statistics Canada - 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006 Census 0-24 yrs Children and Youth 25-54 yrs Core Working Age 55-64 yrs Older Workers 65+ yrs Seniors Population by Gender Female median age is consistently higher than male in this region as well as the individual counties. Table 6: Southwest Population by Age, Sex and County (2006) Southwest Population: By Age, Sex and County NB Saint John Charlotte Kings Southwest Region Males 355,495 35,085 12,995 32,410 80,513 Males: Median age 40.7 39.6 41.3 39.5 40.1 Females 374,500 24,780 17,445 40,190 86,878 Females: Median age 42.3 42.4 43.0 40.6 42.0 Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census Southwest Profile / 6

Knowledge of Official Languages 6 Historical settlements in this region were of English speaking origin, hence the population is predominantly English speaking (Figure 5). Figure 5: Knowledge of Official Languages (2006) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Knowledge of Official Languages (2006) 33.4% 10.2% 56.3% NB Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census 14.1% 0.1% 85.6% Southwest English and French French only English only A certain portion of the workforce would be expected to be bilingual in a large regional city with an international port and airport. In looking closely at Table 7, it should be noted that there is a small percentage of persons who speak neither English nor French, while the number is small, it represents the largest pool of such persons in New Brunswick. Table 7: Southwest Region Population by Knowledge of Official Languages (2006) Total population by knowledge of official languages NB SOUTHWEST 719,650 165,355 English only 405,045 141,585 French only 73,750 165 English and French 240,085 23,390 Neither English nor French 765 220 Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census 6 Statistics Canada conducts the Census of Population with a consistent and thorough methodology. The census is a headcount of persons on a specific day (July 1st) and there are always adjustments required, for example, for incomplete surveys. Different analyses within the census will have slightly different total numbers the differences are statistically insignificant. Southwest Profile / 7

Migration When discussing migration data it should be remembered that the data represent NET movements of people. It can be seen in Figure 6 that the net movement of persons within New Brunswick has been largely out of this region, although net numbers have been declining (smaller losses) for some time. Net movements interprovincially have been variable, although the trend has been towards a net positive impact over the past few years. Figure 6: Net Impact of All Migration NET Impact of All Migration: Southwest 400 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 Number of Persons 200 0-200 -400-600 -800-1000 -1200 Net INTER- Provincial Movement Net INTRAprovincial Movement Source: Statistics Canada - Demography Division Southwest Profile / 8

In looking at the particular ages where net migration has occurred, there is some variability. While there is a net gain for many different individual age groups among the core working age group, there has been a net loss among younger persons (15-25). Figure 7: Net Impact of Migration by Age Net Impact of Migration by Age (2009-2010) Age of Persons 90 + 87 84 81 78 75 72 69 66 63 60 57 54 51 48 45 42 39 36 33 30 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0-60 -40-20 0 20 40 Net Number of Persons Source: Statistics Canada - Demography Division Note: An age of "0" implies a person not yet reaching 1 year of age. Southwest Profile / 9

When individual counties are analyzed, St. John County has experienced a relatively small net loss considering the large volume of persons (approximately 7000) moving each year. Charlotte County has had smaller numbers of persons moving, and smaller numbers in net changes. Kings County has experienced a large number of persons moving (approximately 6000) with relatively small net changes that have been mostly positive over recent years. Figure 8: Components of Population Migration Number of Persons 4000 3000 2000 1000 0-1000 -2000-3000 -4000-5000 Components of Population Migration: St. John County 4000 3000 2000 1000 0-1000 -2000-3000 -4000-5000 Within NB - OUT of County Within NB - INTO County Inter- Provincial: OUT Inter- Provincial: IN County NET Data Source: Demography Division, Statistics Canada Annual Migration. LMAB Compilation Southwest Profile / 10

Figure 9: Components of Population Migration Number of Persons 4000 3000 2000 1000 0-1000 -2000-3000 -4000-5000 Components of Population Migration: Charlotte County 4000 3000 2000 1000 0-1000 -2000-3000 -4000-5000 Within NB - OUT of County Within NB - INTO County Inter- Provincial: OUT Inter- Provincial: IN County NET Data Source: Demography Division, Statistics Canada Annual Migration. LMAB Compilation Figure 10: Components of Population Migration Number of Persons 4000 3000 2000 1000 0-1000 -2000-3000 -4000-5000 Components of Population Migration: Kings County 4000 3000 2000 1000 0-1000 -2000-3000 -4000-5000 Within NB - OUT of County Within NB - INTO County Inter- Provincial: OUT Inter- Provincial: IN County NET Data Source: Demography Division, Statistics Canada Annual Migration. LMAB Compilation Southwest Profile / 11

Education In terms of the education levels supported by the economy in this region the diversity of employment opportunities are noted. There are slightly higher numbers of persons in this region with post-secondary qualifications 51.6 per cent versus New Brunswick average at 49 per cent (Figure 11). The number of persons with a High School certificate is also a slightly higher proportion. The most striking difference in this region compared to the province is the lower proportion of persons with no certificate. Figure 11: Highest Educational Attainment (2006) Highest Level of Educational Attainment (2006) 100% 90% 14.2% 14.2% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 22.7% 25.0% 12.1% 12.4% 23.9% 26.8% University Degree College Level Apprenticeship / Trades High School No Certificate 20% 10% 27.1% 21.6% 0% Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census NB Age 25+ Southwest Age 25+ Southwest Profile / 12

When the educational attainments are analyzed by age group (Figure 12) it can be seen that the older age cohorts are the ones with lower levels of educational attainment. Figure 12: Educational Attainment by Age (2006) Educational Attainment by Age (2006) 100% 6.3% 17.0% 13.3% 90% 17.4% 80% 21.4% 70% 28.5% 12.5% 60% 14.6% 20.4% 50% 11.8% 40% 24.6% 30% 29.5% 20% 43.5% 10% 26.2% 13.2% 0% Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census Age 25-54 Age 55-64 Age 65+ University Degree College Level Apprenticeship / Trades High School No Certificate Post-secondary qualifications by major field of study are consistent with provincial average data (Table 8). This is common in a diverse mix of employment opportunities. Table 8: Population (Age 25-64) with Post-secondary Qualifications by Major Field of Study Population (Age 25 to 64) with Post-secondary Qualifications by Major Field of Study NB Southwest Total population 25 to 64 217,450 100% 50,840 100% Architecture, engineering, and related technologies 51,385 24 12,830 25 Business, management and public administration 52,115 24 12,685 25 Health, parks, recreation and fitness 31,305 14 7,370 15 Education 18,235 8 3,870 8 Personal, protective and transportation services 18,500 9 3,590 7 Social and behavioural sciences and law 14,140 7 3,010 6 Mathematics, computer and information sciences 9,495 4 2,345 5 Humanities 8,525 4 2,145 4 Physical and life sciences and technologies 4,760 2 1,265 3 Agriculture, natural resources and conservation 5,305 2 975 2 Visual and performing arts, and communications technologies 3,610 2 745 2 Other fields of study 65 0 0 0 Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census Southwest Profile / 13

Employment by Occupation The data found in Figure 13 demonstrates that employment by occupation 7 in the southwest is very similar to the provincial averages. Figure 13: Employment by Occupation 2010 Employment by Occupation (2010) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 4.0% 15.9% 17.5% 25.1% 23.5% 1.9% 1.4% 8.3% 7.4% 7.6% 7.7% 6.1% 6.2% Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities Occupations unique to primary industry Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations Sales and service occupations Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion Health occupations 20% 10% 0% 18.5% 18.7% 8.5% 9.4% Natural and applied sciences and related occupations Business, finance and administrative occupations Management occupations NB Southwest Source: Statistics Canada - Labour Force Survey 7 The Canadian Standard for the National Occupational Classification (NOC) was developed by Human Resources and Skills Development Canada (HRSDC). Southwest Profile / 14

Peak employment levels in this region were observed in 2009. In examining Table 9 it would not appear that any single occupation has been subject to extreme losses. Table 9: Employment by Occupational Classification Employment by Occupational Classification: Southwest Number of Persons Relative Size (%) 2009 (Peak) 2010 2009 (Peak) 2010 Sales and service occupations 21,700 20,100 24.5 23.5 Business, finance and administrative occupations 16,800 16,000 19.0 18.7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related 15,000 15,000 16.9 17.5 occupations Management occupations 8,300 8,000 9.4 9.4 Health occupations 6,600 6,600 7.4 7.7 Occupations in social science, education, government 6,000 6,300 6.8 7.4 service and religion Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 5,500 5,300 6.2 6.2 Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and 3,700 3,500 4.2 4.1 utilities Occupations unique to primary industry 3,500 3,400 4.0 4.0 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 1,600 1,200 1.8 1.4 All occupations 88,600 85,500 100% 100% Source: Statistics Canada - Labour Force Survey Southwest Profile / 15

Peak employment was observed in 2009. There is very little shift in relative employment levels. All occupational categories appear to have changed slightly (Figure 14). Figure 14: Change in Employment by Occupation (2009-2010) 90000 Change in Employment by Occupation : Southwest Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities 80000 Occupations unique to primary industry Number of Persons 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations Sales and service occupations Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion Health occupations 20000 10000 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations Business, finance and administrative occupations 0 2009 Peak 2010 Source: Statistics Canada - Labour Force Survey Management occupations Southwest Profile / 16

By examining longer trends in Figure 15 it can be seen that the current levels of employment are higher than they have been historically despite the very recent downturn. Figure 15: Trends in Employment by Occupation 90000 Trends in Employment by Occupation 80000 Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities 70000 Occupations unique to primary industry Number of Persons 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations Sales and service occupations Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion Health occupations Natural and applied sciences and related occupations Business, finance and administrative occupations Management occupations Source: Statistics Canada - Labour Force Survey Southwest Profile / 17

Income Individual Income Average incomes for individuals in this region are slightly higher than the provincial average. A small portion of this can be attributed to the relatively smaller rural economy in the region. This is reflected in slight differences of income distribution where there is a small proportion of persons in the region with income less than $30,000 annually as compared to New Brunswick. Table 10: Income of Individuals Average 2005 Income of Individuals: Southwest NB Southwest Average employment income (Overall) $28,353 $29,852 Average 2005 Income: Worked Full Year and Full Time $41,412 $43,211 Average 2005 Income: Worked Either Part Year or Part Time $16,846 $16,852 Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census Southwest Profile / 18

When looking at the distributions of individual incomes, a slightly higher proportion is observed in every category above $40,000. Figure 16: Distribution of Individual Income 100% Distribution of Individual Income 9.1% 11.0% 90% 5.3% 5.6% 80% 8.0% 8.7% 70% 13.7% 13.6% 60,000 + 60% 50% 17.7% 16.8% 50,000-59,999 40,000-49,999 30,000-39,999 40% 30% 24.6% 23.2% 20,000-29,999 10,000-19,999 20% Under 10,000 10% 21.7% 21.2% 0% NB Southwest Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census Southwest Profile / 19

When examining the composition of individual income, it is not immediately clear what might lie behind the small differences (Figure 17). Income from employment is lower than the provincial average, while income from other sources is higher. Figure 17: Composition of Individual Income Composition of Individual Income (2005) 100% (Persons 15+ and NOT within a family) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 25% 25% 18% 21% 58% 55% Government transfer payments % Other % Employment income % 0% NB Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census Southwest Components of Income (2005) Employment Income Wages and salaries including self-employment, farm and business or professional practice income Other Income Dividends, interest investment income, retirement pensions, superannuation, annuities, and other money income Government Transfer Payments Old Age Security and Guaranteed Income Supplement, Canada Pension Plan, Employment Insurance, Child Benefits, Social Assistance, and other income from government sources Southwest Profile / 20

Family Income A slightly higher proportion is observed in the higher income categories. Family income is slightly higher than provincial average and there are a very slightly lower proportion of those with family income less than $50,000 in this region compared to New Brunswick. Figure 18: Distribution of Family Income Distribution of Family Income 2005: 100% (Persons Aged 15+) 90% 20% 23% 80% $90,000 and over 70% 15% 15% $70,000 to $89,999 60% $50,000 to $69,999 50% 21% 20% $30,000 to $49,999 40% $10,000 to $29,999 30% 25% 23% Under $10,000 20% 10% 17% 17% 0% 2% 2% NB Southwest Source: Statistics Canada Census of Population 2006 Southwest Profile / 21

The composition of family income in this region is similar to New Brunswick overall. Figure 19: Composition of Family Income 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Composition of Family Income (2005) 11.5% 11.9% 15.0% 14.0% Other % Government transfer payments % 40% 30% 20% 10% 73.5% 74.0% Employment income % 0% NB Southwest Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census Table 11: Average Family Income Average Family Income: Southwest NB Southwest Average family income $63,913 $66,319 Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census Southwest Profile / 22

Social Assistance Recipients As populations age or shrink, it becomes more important that every member of the core working age group contribute to the economy in a productive manner. One pool of potential human resources can be found among current client groups with the Department of Social Development. Figure 20 shows the number of persons receiving social assistance under the Transitional Assistance Program (TAP). This group is of interest as they are potentially employable. The number of program clients has declined across New Brunswick; although, it is noted there is a slight increase in recent years both provincially and in the Southwest region. Figure 20: Number of Persons Receiving Social Assistance (TAP) 45,000 40,000 35,000 Average Annual Number of Persons Receiving Social Assistance (Transitional Assistance Program*) Southwest Number of Persons 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 NB Southwest 5,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Government of New Brunswick * The Transitional Assistance Programme excludes long-term clients. Southwest Profile / 23

Employment Insurance Beneficiaries The most common occupations where employment insurance beneficiaries are found reflect the most common sorts of occupations found in the region (Table 12). Table 12: Employment Insurance Beneficiaries by Major Occupational Classification Employment Insurance Beneficiaries by Major Occupational Classification (2010) NOC Occupational Classification NB Southwest Group Southwest as % of NB 0 Management Occupations 1716 341 19.9% 1 Business, Finance and Administration Occupations 5507 269 4.9% 2 Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations 1550 566 36.5% 3 Health Occupations 1665 185 11.1% 4 Occupations in Social Science, Education, Government Service and Religion 2084 203 9.7% 5 Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport 763 407 53.3% 6 Sales and Service Occupations 8496 922 10.9% 7 Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations 14086 2,105 14.9% 8 Occupations Unique to Primary Industry 5176 274 5.3% 9 Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities 5445 1,688 31.0% Source: Service Canada / HRSDC 2011 Southwest Profile / 24

There is some fishing industry along the Northumberland Strait, and this is reflected in the observed number of employment insurance beneficiaries in Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities being relatively high. It is not immediately clear why the numbers of beneficiaries observed in occupations unique to primary industry would be relatively lower than the New Brunswick average. Figure 21: Employment Insurance Beneficiaries by Major Occupational Classification 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Employment Insurance Beneficiaries by Major Occupational Classification (2010) 11.7% 11.1% 30.3% 24.3% 3.9% 30.3% Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities Occupations Unique to Primary Industry Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations Sales and Service Occupations Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport 40% 18.3% 13.2% Occupations in Social Science, Education, Government Service and Religion Health Occupations 30% 1.6% 4.5% 5.8% 20% 3.6% 2.9% 2.7% 3.3% 8.1% 10% 11.8% 3.9% 3.7% 4.9% 0% NB Southwest Source: Service Canada / HRSDC 2011 Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations Business, Finance and Administration Occupations Management Occupations Southwest Profile / 25

Table 13 indicates the proportions of employment insurance beneficiaries by skill levels. It does not appear that any one category is more prevalent than another in this region. Table 13: Employment Insurance Beneficiaries by Skill Level Employment Insurance Beneficiaries by skill level 2010 NOC Skill Major Skill Southwest NB Southwest Level Description as % of NB M Management 1716 341 19.9% A 2688 481 17.9% B 13860 2,373 17.1% C 17453 2,245 12.9% D 10626 1,518 14.3% Source: Service Canada / HRSDC 2011 NOC Skill Level Description M Management is a unique category requiring both occupation skills and management skills. A Skill Level A represents occupations usually requiring university education. B Skill Level B refers to occupations usually requiring college education or apprenticeship training. C Skill Level C occupations generally require completion of secondary school and some job-specific training or completion of courses directly related to the work. D Skill Level D occupations usually require on-the-job training, short demonstration sessions or instruction that takes place in the work environment. Southwest Profile / 26

Industry For a detailed look at industry composition, and changes to the labour force within those industries we turn to Statistics Canada s Labour Force Survey. Industry can be described by nature of the products that are produced. Some industries, such as agriculture, forestry, or mining, produce physical items. These are part of the Goods-Producing sector. Other industries provide services based on handling of goods, such as transportation. There are also service industries of general function such as banking, insurance, and real estate. These industries are part of the servicesproducing sector. Both Goods-Producing and Services-Producing industries are subject to market fluctuations. Balance between Goods-Producing and Services-Producing industries are widely varied across New Brunswick. Employment in the Southwest region is approximately 27 per cent in the Goods-Producing sector (2010). Across the whole province, employment within the industries in the Goods-Producing sector range from approximately 14 per cent to approximately 30 per cent of total employment. (This is also a good indication of differences among New Brunswick s regional economies.) Another characteristic of interest within the services-producing sector is the type of employer. For the purposes of this analysis, three categories have been removed from the overall services sector, and then recombined with Health Care and Social Assistance, Educational Services, and Public Administration sectors in a non-standard group we are calling Public Sector. This would encompass workers in three levels of government: municipal, provincial, and federal. These three sectors are shown separately in order to demonstrate the regional magnitude of dependence on Public Sector employment. Southwest Profile / 27

When Figure 22 is examined, it can be seen that growth has occurred both in Goods-Producing and Services- Producing industries. Recent observations would indicate a loss in public sector employment relative to other sectors. Figure 22: Employment Trends by Nature of Industry Number of Persons 100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Employment Trends by Nature of Industry: Southwest All Other Services Industries Public Sector Goods- Producing Sector 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Original Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey. Compilations: LMAB Southwest Profile / 28

In Figure 23 it can be seen that the Goods-Producing and all other services sectors are of larger influence in this region than elsewhere in the province. Figure 23: Employment by Nature of Industry Employment by Nature of Industry (2010) 100% 90% 80% 70% 49.0% 50.7% 60% 50% 40% 28.6% 22.5% 30% 20% 10% 22.4% 26.8% 0% NB Southwest Original Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey. Compilations: LMAB All Other Service- Producing Industries Public Sector Goods-Producing Sector Southwest Profile / 29

Figure 24: Employment by Sector 2010 Employment by Sector 2010 Public administration 3% Educational services 6% Health care and social assistance 13% Retail and Wholesale Trade 15% Accommodation and food services 6% Other services 5% Transportation and warehousing 4% Business, building and other support services 6% Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing 4% Source: Statistics Canada - Labour Force Survey Goods Producing Sectors 27% Professional, scientific and technical services 6% Information, culture and recreation 4% Manufacturing 9% Construction 10% Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas 3% Agriculture 2% Utilities 2% For detailed examination of employment levels by industry, refer to Table 14 which follows. Southwest Profile / 30

Table 14: Employment by Sector (2001-2010) Employment in Southwest Economic Region by Industry (2001-2010) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Peak Level Change 2001-2010 10 Years Change 2007-2010 Post- Recession Region Total 77,900 81,700 80,700 81,700 81,000 82,100 85,300 86,000 88,600 85,500 7,600 200 Goods-Producing Sector 17,800 17,200 19,600 19,400 17,500 18,500 21,400 21,500 23,100 22,900 5,100 1,500 Agriculture 1,300 1,500 1,700 1,600 1,600 1,500 1,700 2,000 2,300 1,700 400 0 Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil and Gas 2,600 2,100 2,600 2,600 2,600 1,500 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,900 300 500 Utilities 1,800 1,500 1,300 1,400 1,100 900 1,900 2,300 1,900 1,500-300 -400 Construction 4,300 4,600 4,900 5,200 4,600 5,300 5,400 6,900 7,700 8,900 4,600 3,500 Manufacturing 7,900 7,500 9,100 8,500 7,700 9,300 10,000 7,900 8,800 7,800-100 -2,200 Services-Producing Sector (Total) 60,000 64,500 61,100 62,300 63,500 63,600 63,900 64,500 65,500 62,600 2,600-1,300 Educational Services 5,100 4,400 4,300 4,700 5,700 6,200 5,400 5,700 5,400 5,000-100 -400 Public Administration 3,600 3,500 2,900 2,800 3,300 3,600 3,200 4,500 4,000 2,900-700 -300 Health Care and Social Assistance 10,300 11,000 11,200 11,000 11,500 10,300 12,100 11,700 12,300 11,400 1,100-700 Sub-Total: Public Sector Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 3,300 3,800 3,800 4,400 4,500 3,900 4,300 5,200 5,000 4,900 1,600 600 Information, Culture and Recreation 3,500 3,500 3,200 2,900 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,100 3,300-200 100 19,000 18,900 18,400 18,500 20,500 20,100 20,700 21,900 21,700 19,300 300-1,400 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing 3,200 4,100 3,700 2,800 3,300 3,600 3,800 3,300 3,500 3,800 600 0 Business, building and other support services 5,300 7,100 7,300 7,700 6,000 6,300 5,600 6,000 6,400 5,200-100 -400 Transportation and Warehousing 4,100 4,500 3,800 3,800 3,900 4,300 3,600 3,500 4,300 3,600-500 0 Other Services 3,700 4,000 4,200 4,300 3,600 3,800 3,800 3,000 3,700 4,400 700 600 Accommodation and Food Services 5,200 6,000 5,200 4,300 4,500 5,600 4,500 5,600 4,500 5,200 0 700 Retail and Wholesale Trade 12,800 12,600 11,500 13,700 14,100 12,600 14,300 12,900 13,300 13,000 200-1,300 Sub-Total: All Other Services Industries 41,100 45,600 42,700 43,900 43,100 43,300 43,100 42,700 43,800 43,400 2,300 300 Source: Statistics Canada - Labour Force Survey Southwest Profile / 31

Labour Market Characteristics Understanding the labour market begins with the working age population. This can be seen in Figure 25 where the top (highest) line of the graph is the total number of persons 15 years of age and older. There has been a consistent growth in the working age population over a number of years. Labour force is defined 8 as those members of the population, aged 15 and older, who are either working or unemployed but looking for work. In Figure 25, it can be seen that the line indicating the number of persons in the labour force is a lesser number than the population aged 15 and older. This is normal as not all persons within a population would be actively seeking employment 9. The difference between the two is demonstrated by the labour force participation rate: the portion of population actually engaged in labour force activity. 8 Labour force typically excludes certain populations, for example, full-time members of the Canadian Armed Forces are not included. For a full definition as used by Statistics Canada, see Guide to the Labour Force Survey 9 For example: students in school, non-working spouses or stay-at-home parents. 32

Persons are considered unemployed if they are not working but actively seeking employment, or if they are on temporary layoff, or they have taken a job that is expected to start in the near future. At any point in time there will always be a small proportion of people who are choosing to change jobs or careers, or, they have personal reasons for temporary work stoppages. Unemployment rates include all persons who are seeking employment, but are not yet working. Figure 25: Southwest Labour Force Characteristics 160000 Southwest Labour Force Characteristics 1987-2010 140000 120000 Number of Persons 100000 80000 60000 40000 Population 15+ Labour Force Employed Unemployed 20000 0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Statistics Canada - Labour Force Survey 33

It can be seen in Figure 26 that the unemployment rate in the Southwest is routinely lower than the rate observed elsewhere across the province. The data for the most recent years (2007 onward) indicate a gradual creeping up in the unemployment rates across New Brunswick including the Southwest. Figure 26: Unemployment Rate 14.0 Unemployment Rate (Annual Averages in %) 12.0 10.0 Percent 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 New Brunswick Southwest Source: Statistics Canada - Labour Force Survey 34

The employment rate is the number of employed persons expressed as a percentage of the population 15 years of age and older. This cohort is also referred to as the working age population. It can be seen in Figure 27 that the Southwest region has an employment rate that is slightly but consistently higher than the rest of the province. Figure 27: Employment Rate 70.0 Employment Rate (Annual Averages in %) 60.0 50.0 Percent 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 New Brunswick Southwest Source: Statistics Canada - Labour Force Survey 35

The participation rate is the total labour force expressed as a percentage of the population 15 years and over (working age population). Participation rates in this region are consistently higher than the rest of the province, tracking the same general trends but are observed to be somewhat more volatile. Both the region and the province have seen declining participation rates in the past year. Figure 28: Participation Rate 68.0 Participation Rate (Annual Averages in %) 66.0 64.0 Percent 62.0 60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 New Brunswick Southwest Source: Statistics Canada - Labour Force Survey 36

Participation, employment and unemployment rates are expressed in terms of percentages. As a tool, percentages allow data to be compared across jurisdictions that are vastly different in size. However, percentages only give partial information. While it gives the proportions they represent, you do not immediately know total number of persons involved. Both aspects are important. In order to facilitate comparisons between percentages and absolute numbers, both are presented in Table 15. The New Brunswick provincial economy was expanding before the most recent recession. Peak employment statistics are often observed in 2007 across New Brunswick so this is used as a reference in this table, and the most recent year of data is for 2010. Overall, the Southwest region has fared better than elsewhere in New Brunswick in the post-recession period. The working age population has increased, with a concurrent increase in the labour force. The number of employed persons has increased slightly while the number of unemployed persons has also increased. The trade off between numbers and percentage rates appears when examining the data in terms of percentages. The participation rate grew at a faster rate compared to New Brunswick, and the employment rate dropped more while the unemployment rate increased. Table 15: Characteristics of the Labour Market Characteristics of the Labour Market: Southwest 2010 (Peak) 2007-2010 Change SOUTHWEST 2007-2010 Change 2007 2008 2009 NUMBER OF PERSONS Population 15+ 140,400 141,300 142,400 143,400 3,000 8,700 Labour Force 90,300 92,300 94,600 92,900 2,600 6,400 Employed 85,300 86,000 88,600 85,500 200-1,000 Unemployed 5,000 6,300 6,000 7,500 2,500 7,400 PERCENTAGES Unemployment Rate 5.5% 6.8% 6.3% 8.1% 2.6% 1.8% Participation Rate 64.3% 65.3% 66.4% 64.8% 0.5% 0.1% Employment Rate 60.8% 60.9% 62.2% 59.6% -1.2% -1.0% Source: Statistics Canada - Labour Force Survey NB 37

Appendices Appendix A - Population and Dwelling Counts Population and Dwelling Counts, New Brunswick Census Divisions, Census Subdivisions and Designated Places, 2006 and 2001 Censuses - 100% Data Population Private dwellings, 2006 CSD Type 2006 2001 % Change Total Occupied by usual residents NEW BRUNSWICK 729,997 729,498 0.1 331,619 295,871 ST. JOHN COUNTY 74,621 76,407-2.3 34,914 31,808 Saint John C 68,043 69,661-2.3 32,090 29,310 Fairfield LSD 269 276-2.5 107 97 St. Martins V 386 374 3.2 195 153 CHARLOTTE COUNTY 26,898 27,366-1.7 13,392 11,161 White Head Island LSD 190 188 1.1 107 79 Beaver Harbour LSD 302 363-16.8 147 130 Bayside (1) LSD 331 296 11.8 213 145 Bonny-River - Second Falls LSD 430 415 3.6 220 181 Fundy Bay LSD 1,375 1,256 9.5 650 580 Western Charlotte part A (1) LSD 531 535-0.7 227 203 Dennis-Weston LSD 1,192 977 22.0 506 485 Western Charlotte part B (1) LSD 573 539 6.3 224 214 Saint Andrews T 1,798 1,869-3.8 971 785 St. George (2) T 1,309 1,509-13.3 552 521 St. Stephen T 4,780 4,667 2.4 2,187 2,021 Blacks Harbour V 952 1,082-12.0 415 381 Grand Manan V 2,460 2,610-5.7 1,298 1,046 KINGS COUNTY 65,824 64,208 2.5 26,740 24,366 Nauwigewauk LSD 1,463 1,508-3.0 566 548 Havelock part A LSD 371 380-2.4 152 140 Westfield LSD 623 660-5.6 307 257 Hampton T 4,004 3,997 0.2 1,440 1,405 Sussex T 4,241 4,182 1.4 1,954 1,851 Grand Bay-Westfield T 4,981 4,949 0.6 1,895 1,793 Quispamsis T 15,239 13,757 10.8 5,324 5,197 Rothesay T 11,637 11,505 1.1 4,536 4,317 38

Norton V 1,314 1,370-4.1 516 489 Sussex Corner V 1,413 1,321 7.0 616 599... Figures not appropriate or not applicable. (1) Adjusted 2001 population count due to boundary change. (2) An error was found in the census data for this census subdivision. The original 2006 Census counts (1,309 population, 552 total dwellings and 521 occupied by U have been revised to 1,512; 641 and 603 respectively. CSD Type C IRI LSD V T City Indian reserve Local service district Village Town 39

Appendix B - Examples of Most Common Occupations by Sector Examples of Most Common Occupations by Sector (NB) National Occupation Code (#) and Name of Occupation AGRICULTURE 8251 Farmers and Farm Managers 8431 General Farm Workers 8432 Nursery and Greenhouse Workers 8611 Harvesting Labourers 8254 Nursery and Greenhouse Operators and Managers 1231 Bookkeepers 8253 Farm Supervisors and Specialized Livestock Workers 7411 Truck Drivers 8252 Agricultural and Related Service Contractors and Managers 1241 Secretaries (Except Legal and Medical) FORESTRY, FISHING, MINING, QUARRYING, OIL AND GAS 8262 Fishing Vessel Skippers 8421 Chain Saw and Skidder Operators 8241 Logging Machinery Operators 8441 Fishing Vessel Deckhands 8231 Underground Production and Development Miners 8211 Supervisors, Logging and Forestry 8616 Logging and Forestry Labourers 7411 Truck Drivers 40

7421 Heavy Equipment Operators (Except Crane) 2223 Forestry Technologists and Technicians UTILITIES 7244 Electrical Power Line and Cable Workers 7352 Power Systems and Power Station Operators 1411 General Office Clerks 2133 Electrical and Electronics Engineers 0912 Utilities Managers 9212 Supervisors, Petroleum, Gas and Chemical Processing and Utilities 9424 Water and Waste Plant Operators 1453 Customer Service, Information and Related Clerks 7243 Power System Electricians 2241 Electrical and Electronics Engineering Technologists and Technicians CONSTRUCTION 7271 Carpenters 7611 Construction Trades Helpers and Labourers 0712 Residential Home Builders and Renovators 7241 Electricians (Except Industrial and Power System) 7219 Contractors and Supervisors, Other Construction Trades, Installers, Repairers and Servicers 7421 Heavy Equipment Operators (Except Crane) 0711 Construction Managers 7294 Painters and Decorators 7251 Plumbers 41

7284 Plasterers, Drywall Installers and Finishers and Lathers MANUFACTURING 9461 Process Control and Machine Operators, Food and Beverage Processing 9617 Labourers in Food, Beverage and Tobacco Processing 0911 Manufacturing Managers 7311 Construction Millwrights and Industrial Mechanics 7452 Material Handlers 9614 Labourers in Wood, Pulp and Paper Processing 1471 Shippers and Receivers 9619 Other Labourers in Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities 9462 Industrial Butchers and Meat Cutters, Poultry Preparers and Related Workers 7411 Truck Drivers TRADE (Wholesale and Retail) 6421 Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks 0621 Retail Trade Managers 6611 Cashiers 6622 Grocery Clerks and Store Shelf Stockers 6411 Sales Representatives Wholesale Trade (Non-Technical) 6211 Retail Trade Supervisors 7452 Material Handlers 6221 Technical Sales Specialists Wholesale Trade 7321 Automotive Service Technicians, Truck and Bus Mechanics and Mechanical Repairers 1471 Shippers and Receivers 42

TRANSPORTATION AND WAREHOUSING 7411 Truck Drivers 7412 Bus Drivers, Subway Operators and Other Transit Operators 7413 Taxi and Limousine Drivers and Chauffeurs 1461 Mail, Postal and Related Clerks 7452 Material Handlers 1462 Letter Carriers 7414 Delivery and Courier Service Drivers 7222 Supervisors, Motor Transport and Other Ground Transit Operators 1463 Couriers, Messengers and Door-to-Door Distributors 0713 Transportation Managers FINANCE, INSURANCE, REAL ESTATE AND LEASING 1433 Customer Service Representatives Financial Services 6232 Real Estate Agents and Salespersons 6231 Insurance Agents and Brokers 0122 Banking, Credit and Other Investment Managers 1114 Other Financial Officers 1434 Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Clerks 1232 Loan Officers 1241 Secretaries (Except Legal and Medical) 1224 Property Administrators 6663 Janitors, Caretakers and Building Superintendents 43

PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL SERVICES 1111 Financial Auditors and Accountants 4112 Lawyers and Quebec Notaries 2174 Computer Programmers and Interactive Media Developers 2171 Information Systems Analysts and Consultants 1122 Professional Occupations in Business Services to Management 1231 Bookkeepers 5241 Graphic Designers and Illustrators 1242 Legal Secretaries 4211 Paralegal and Related Occupations 2131 Civil Engineers BUSINESS, BUILDING AND OTHER SUPPORT SERVICES 6661 Light Duty Cleaners 6651 Security Guards and Related Occupations 6663 Janitors, Caretakers and Building Superintendents 1453 Customer Service, Information and Related Clerks 8255 Landscaping and Grounds Maintenance Contractors and Managers 6431 Travel Counsellors 8612 Landscaping and Grounds Maintenance Labourers 6623 Other Elemental Sales Occupations 6215 Cleaning Supervisors 1241 Secretaries (Except Legal and Medical) EDUCATIONAL SERVICES 44

4142 Elementary School and Kindergarten Teachers 4141 Secondary School Teachers 6472 Elementary and Secondary School Teacher Assistants 4131 College and Other Vocational Instructors 4121 University Professors 4122 Post-Secondary Teaching and Research Assistants 6663 Janitors, Caretakers and Building Superintendents 1241 Secretaries (Except Legal and Medical) 0313 School Principals and Administrators of Elementary and Secondary Education 5133 Musicians and Singers HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE 3152 Registered Nurses 3413 Nurse Aides, Orderlies and Patient Service Associates 4214 Early Childhood Educators and Assistants 3233 Licensed Practical Nurses 4212 Community and Social Service Workers 6471 Visiting Homemakers, Housekeepers and Related Occupations 1414 Receptionists and Switchboard Operators 1243 Medical Secretaries 6641 Food Counter Attendants, Kitchen Helpers and Related Occupations 6661 Light Duty Cleaners INFORMATION, CULTURE AND RECREATION 5254 Program Leaders and Instructors in Recreation, Sport and Fitness 45