Consensus Forecast for GDP and Autos 2004 and June 4, 2004

Similar documents
Consensus Forecast 2004 and 2005

Consensus Forecast 2010 and 2011

Consensus Forecast for 2013

Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys

Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys

Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys

Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys

Release Date: November 16, 2009 FOURTH QUARTER 2009

What s Ahead for the Economy: Choppy Waters or Smooth Sailing?

Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys

Economic Outlook 1. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Economic Outlook

Economic and Housing Outlook 1. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Economic and Housing Outlook

Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys

U.S. END-YEAR 2017 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SURVEY 2017

Consensus Forecast for 2011

U.S. MID-YEAR 2017 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SURVEY 2017

Release Date: August 13, 2010 THIRD QUARTER 2010

THE LIVINGSTON SURVEY

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2017 results and 2018 forecasts

334 Appendix B. Fixed investment. Gross domestic product (percent change) Change in private inventories. Year or quarter. Nonresidential Residential

United States. GDP Growth Annualized Percentage Change. Industrial Production Annualized Percentage Change

Economic and Residential Outlook 1. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Economic Indicators JUNE Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers. 113th Congress, 1st Session

Housing & Mortgage Market Outlook

The Economic Outlook

Release Date: June 15, 2018 JUNE 2018

U.S. Automotive Outlook

Release Date: December 15, 2017 DECEMBER 2017

Release Date: December 21, 2018 DECEMBER 2018

Ahmad Ijaz Center for Business and Economic Research Culverhouse College of Commerce The University of Alabama

Light at the End of the Tunnel or an Oncoming Freight Train? March 20, 2009

ECON 120 -ESSENTIALS OF ECONOMICS

Economic Update: Fed Delay Bought Calm. But is it Calm Enough to Hike Rates? 2016 AAM Investment Conference Chris Low FTN Financial Chief Economist

Growth in Domestic Private Final Demand: It s Falling -- Can It Get Up? August 7, 2007

Economic Indicators MARCH Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers. 114th Congress, 2nd Session

ECON Drexel University Winter 2009 Assignment 1. Due date: Jan. 21, 2009

ECON 3010 Intermediate Macroeconomics. Chapter 2 The Data of Macroeconomics

Release Date: November 17, 2008 FOURTH QUARTER 2008

Release Date: August 10, 2012 THIRD QUARTER 2012

High Quality Corporate Notes as an investment option? & Winners from your Economic Predictions at the last ICCCFO Conference

Decline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27, 2009

Release Date: December 12, 2013 DECEMBER 2013

THE USED VEHICLE MARKET: BUMPS ON THE ROAD AHEAD CHARLES CHESBROUGH SENIOR ECONOMIST AND SENIOR DIRECTOR OF INDUSTRY INSIGHTS JUNE 2017

The Northern Trust Company Economic Research Department U.S. Economic and Interest Rate Outlook 50 South LaSalle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60675

U.S. Economy and Financial Markets

Economic Outlook. William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Economic Outlook and Forecast

Economic Outlook. William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

House prices in the United States were 14.1 percent

U.S. Economic Forecast Rankings Overall Rank

There has been considerable discussion of the possibility

THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR THE NATION AND CALIFORNIA

National Economic Indicators. December 11, 2017

Michigan Economic Update

Dollar Volume of Single-Family Home Sales* / Nominal GDP percent 18

Economic Indicators AUGUST Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers. 114th Congress, 1st Session

The relatively slow growth of employment has

Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*

$250,000,000 The University of Chicago Medical Center

Uinta Basin Energy Summit Economic Overview September 10, 2015

Real GDP Growth Compounded annual rates of change. Consumer Price Index Percent change

The Worst Recession since the Great Depression? Perhaps, But December 15, 2008

Economic Outlook June Economic Policy Division

Global Macroeconomics Measurement

Part V: Introduction to Macroeconomics 19. The Wealth of Nations: Defining and

Release Date: December 8, 2011 DECEMBER 2011

Many analysts have argued that a housing boom preceded

WAFD October 21, 2008

National Economic Indicators. May 7, 2018

Economic and Revenue Forecasts

Notes II: Measuring the Economy

Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist

To QE or Not to QE? That is the Question

With the tax filing season in full swing, these summary

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND REVENUE ESTIMATES FOR MICHIGAN FY THROUGH FY

Economic Indicators AUGUST Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers. 114th Congress, 2nd Session

Blue Chip Economic Indicators

Econ 522: Intermediate Macroeconomics, Spring Chapter 2 Practice Problems - Solutions

Smith Leonard PLLC Kenneth D. Smith, CPA Mark S. Laferriere, CPA

Economic Indicators MARCH Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers. 115th Congress, 1st Session

NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Recession Now Putting Our Forecast Where Our Mouth Has Been February 4, 2008

The President s Report to the Board of Directors

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

ctrends Nominal Vs. Real Wage Growth Growth of Wages Percent Change From Year Ago August 1997

The Federal Reserve has set the target range for the federal

Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*

Total State and Local Business Taxes

- US LEI & CEI - Yardeni Research, Inc.

Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*

Office of the Chief Economist National Credit Union Administration. Economic Overview. California State Examiner School.

Recently the Federal Open Market Committee

What is Macroeconomics?

MACROECONOMICS. The Data of Macroeconomics MANKIW. In this chapter, you will learn. Gross Domestic Product: Expenditure and Income.

In the past three decades, the share of foreign-born

Boost from Fiscal Policy to Fade in 2019

Spring 2011 State Forecast

U.S. Cement & Construction Forecast

Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*

Transcription:

Consensus Forecast for GDP and Autos 2 and 2 Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium Detroit, Michigan June, 2 William A. Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

2 Automotive Outlook Symposium Forecast Winners Overall Current Dollar GDP GDP Price Index, Chain Type Real GDP Personal Consumption Expenditures Nonresidential Fixed Investment Residential Investment Change In Private Inventories Net Exports Government Consumption Expenditures Industrial Production Car & Light Truck Sales Housing Starts Oil Prices Unemployment Rate Inflation Rate (CPI) Treasury Constant Maturity 1-Year Rate Treasury Constant Maturity 1-Year Rate J.P. Morgan Trade Weighted OECD Dollar Anthony Pratt - T.K. Holdings Jack Bishop - Kingsbury International, Ltd. David Berson - Fannie Mae Tom Davis - Motorola Sal Guatieri - BMO Financial Group/Harris Bank Tom Guthrie - Indiana-Purdue at Fort Wanye Ellen Hughes-Cromwick/Jarlath Costello - Ford Motor Company Paul Kasriel/Asha Bangalore - Northern Trust Don Nichols - University of Wisconsin David Teolis - General Motors Corporation Chris Varvares - Macroeconomic Advisers Anthony Pratt - T.K. Holdings David Littmann - Comerica Bank Tom Davis - Motorola David Littmann - Comerica Bank Laura Spingola - Trade Resources Ltd. John Skorburg - American Farm Bureau Federation Tom Webb - Manheim Auctions David Teolis - General Motors Corporation David Teolis - General Motors Corporation Rick Dziobak - Amcast Automotive Van Jolissaint - DamilerChrysler David Littmann - Comerica Bank Ken Mayland - ClearView Economics, LLC Evert Van Der Heide - Calvin College James C. Smith - Indiana University School of Business Robert DiCianni - Ispat Inland Inc. George Erickeck - W.E. UpJohn Institute Peter Glassman - Bank One Bill Hickey - DTE Energy Dave Maaske - Charleston Orwig Rebecca Ross - Michigan Legislature and House Fiscal Agency David Teolis - General Motors Corporation Kenny Vieth - A.C.T. Research Co., LLC Bill Hickey - DTE Energy Peter Glassman - Bank One Peter Glassman - Bank One David Littmann - Comerica Bank

Table 1 - Median forecast of GDP and related items 2 2 2 GDP, current dollars.8% 6.%.7% GDP deflator, chain-type price index 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% Real GDP, chained 2 dollars.1%.%.8% Personal consumption expenditures.1%.%.% Nonresidential fixed investment.% 9.% 8.6% Residential investment 7.%.% -1.1% Change in business inventories (billions of constant dollars) -$.8 $28.2 $. Net exports of goods and services (billions of constant dollars) -$9.1 -$2. -$98.8 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.% 2.2% 2.% Industrial production.%.9%.2% Car & light truck sales (millions) 16.6 16.8 16.9 Housing starts (millions) 1.8 1.8 1.7 Oil price (dollars per barrel of West Texas Intermediate) $1.1 $.9 $1.2 Unemployment rate 6.%.6%.% Inflation rate (consumer price index) 2.% 2.% 2.% Treasury constant maturity 1-year rate 1.2% 1.6% 2.7% Treasury constant maturity 1-year rate.2%.6%.2% Change in J.P. Morgan narrow nominal dollar index -6.7% -.1% -.7% 1 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 2 - Mean forecast of GDP and related items 2 2 2 GDP, current dollars.8% 6.2%.7% GDP deflator, chain-type price index 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% Real GDP, chained 2 dollars.1%.6%.8% Personal consumption expenditures.1%.7%.% Nonresidential fixed investment.% 8.7% 8.2% Residential investment 7.%.9% -1.8% Change in business inventories (billions of constant dollars) -$.8 $2.8 $.8 Net exports of goods and services (billions of constant dollars) -$9.1 -$19. -$1. Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.% 2.8% 2.% Industrial production.%.7%.7% Car & light truck sales (millions) 16.6 16.7 16.8 Housing starts (millions) 1.8 1.8 1.71 Oil price (dollars per barrel of West Texas Intermediate) $1.1 $. $1.8 Unemployment rate 6.%.6%.% Inflation rate (consumer price index) 2.% 2.% 2.% Treasury constant maturity 1-year rate 1.2% 1.7% 2.7% Treasury constant maturity 1-year rate.2%.6%.2% Change in J.P. Morgan narrow nominal dollar index -6.7% -1.% -.6% 2 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Figure 1a - Forecast of GDP and related items Real GDP, chained 2 dollars 2 1-1 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Figure 1b - Forecast of GDP and related items 7 6 GDP, current dollars 6 2 1 Personal consumption expenditures 2 1 Nonresidential fixed investment 1 Residential investment 1 1 - - -1-1 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Figure 1c - Forecast of GDP and related items billions of constant dollars 8 6 2-2 Change in business inventories Net exports of goods and services billions of constant dollars -1-2 - - - - -6 6 Government purchases 8 Industrial production 6 2 1 2-2 -1 - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Figure 1d - Forecast of GDP and related items millions of units 18 Car and light truck sales millions of units 2. Housing starts 17 1.8 16 1.6 1 1 1. 1 1.2 12 1. percent 8 7 6 Unemployment rate dollars per barrel 2 2 1 Oil prices - West Texas Intermediate 1 6 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Figure 1e - Forecast of GDP and related items GDP Deflator, chain-type price index 6 Inflation rate (CPI) 2 1 2 1 Treasury 1-year rate Treasury 1-year rate percent 8 percent 9 7 8 6 7 6 2 1 7 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Figure 1f - Forecast of GDP and related items 1 J.P. Morgan trade-weighted dollar - -1 8 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table - GDP, current dollars Individual 2 2 2.8% 11 7.1% 6.% 2 7.1%.6% 6.8%.2% 7 6.8% 6.% 6.7% 6.% 1 6.7% 7.% 18 6.7% 1 6.7% 6.% 9 6.6%.% 19 6.6% 6.% 1 6.6%.% 2 6.% 6.1% 2 6.%.7% 21 6.% 6.% 2 6.% 6.2% 26 6.%.6% 2 6.% 6.% 22 6.%.9% 8 6.%.% 1 6.%.8% 12 6.%.% 1 6.%.6% 16 6.2%.6% 29 6.2% 6.6% 6.1% 6.7% 1 6.1%.9% 27 6.%.9%.%.1%.9%.%.8%.6% 2.7%.2%.9% 8.% GDP, current dollars 7 6 2 MEDIAN 6.%.7% MEAN 6.2%.7% STD DEV.7% 1.% HIGH 7.1% 8.% LOW.9%.% 9 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table - GDP deflator, chain-type price index Individual 2 2 2 1.7% 27 2.%.% 11 2.% 2.7% 1 2.2% 2.8% 26 2.2% 2.8% 2 2.1% 2.7% 2 2.1% 2.% 18 2.% 19 2.% 2.2% 2 2.% 2.2% 1 2.% 2.1% 29 2.% 2.% 1 2.% 2.2% 1 1.9% 2.9% 1.9% 1.6% 7 1.9% 1.9% 2 1.9% 1.6% 2 1.8% 2.1% 21 1.8% 2.% 9 1.8% 1.% 22 1.8% 1.% 1.7% 2.% 1 1.7% 1.7% 1 1.% 1.% 16 1.% 1.% 8 1.% 1.1% 1.% 1.1% 12 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.2%.9% 1.1%.2% 2.8% 1.%.%.% GDP Deflator, chain-type price index 2 1 MEDIAN 1.8% 1.9% MEAN 1.7% 1.8% STD DEV.%.7% HIGH 2.%.% LOW.%.% 1 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table - Real GDP, chained 2 dollars Individual 2 2 2.1% 1 9.%.% 2.1%.1%.9%.%.8%.6%.8%.6% 6.8%.6% 7.8%.% 8.8%.% 9.7%.8% 1.7%.8% 11.7%.7% 12.7%.8% 1.7%.2% 1.6%.% 1.6%.1% 16.6%.% 17.%.% 18.% 19.%.% 2.%.8% 21.%.% 22.%.% 2.%.6% 2.%.% 2.%.8% 26.2% 2.7% 27.2%.% 28.2%.7% 29.1%.%.1%.8% 1.% 2.7% 2.9%.%.7%.%.7%.1% 2.% 6.% Real GDP 2 1-1 MEDIAN.%.8% MEAN.6%.8% STD DEV 1.%.7% HIGH 9.% 6.% LOW 2.% 2.7% 11 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 6 - Personal consumption expenditures Individual 2 2 2.1% 19.8%.7% 1 1.%.% 2.8%.% 11.%.% 29.%.2% 2.%.7%.%.% 26.1% 2.9% 7.1%.7% 8.1%.9%.1%.7% 1.%.% 16.%.% 6.%.2% 27.%.%.% 2.9% 19.%.9% 2.9%.% 1.9%.% 22.9%.2% 21.9%.1% 2.9%.% 1.9%.% 9.8%.% 2.7% 2.9% 18.7% 12.7%.2% 1.7%.%.% 2.8% 2.% 2.8% Personal Consumption Expenditures 6 2 1 MEDIAN.%.% MEAN.7%.% STD DEV.%.6% HIGH 19.8%.7% LOW.% 2.8% 12 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 7 - Nonresidential fixed investment Individual 2 2 2.% 1 12.%.2% 8 11.6% 17.8% 2 11.2% 1.% 1 1.6% 11.7% 1.% 7.% 16 1.% 8.% 1 1.2% 1.6% 1.1% 11.6% 9 1.% 9.% 1 9.9% 8.8% 1 9.9% 7.2% 2 9.8% 9.1% 2 9.8% 8.9% 7 9.7% 9.2% 18 9.% 19 9.% 9.% 21 9.2% 9.2% 2 9.2% 1.7% 2 9.% 7.% 12 8.8% 9.2% 22 8.% 6.% 11 8.%.% 7.7% 6.7% 26 6.6% 2.% 2.7%.9% 27.%.% 29.8% 7.2%.%.1% 2.6% 7.8% Nonresidential fixed investment 1 1 - -1 MEDIAN 9.% 8.6% MEAN 8.7% 8.2% STD DEV 2.%.% HIGH 12.% 17.8% LOW 2.6% 2.% 1 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 8 - Residential investment Individual 2 2 2 7.% 21.9% 11.% 11 8.%.% 6.2% 2.% 6.1% -.% 2.7% -2.% 18.6% 2.6% 1.% 22.% 1.1% 2.% -.%.1% -.6% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% -.9% 7.6% -.% 1.1% -.6% 9.%.8% 2.9%.8% 26.9% 2.9% 1.9% -1.9%.9% -9.2% 12.8% -.% 2.7%.8% 19.6% -.1% 16.% -12.9% 8.1% -7.6% 21.% -12.7% 27 2.% 2.% 2 2.% -6.2% 29 1.9% 1.% 1 1.8% -.% Residential investment 1 1 - -1 MEDIAN.% -1.1% MEAN.9% -1.8% STD DEV.%.2% HIGH 21.9% 11.% LOW 1.8% -12.9% 1 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 9 - Change in business inventories (billions of constant dollars) Individual 2 2 2 -$.8 2 $. $. 19 $.1 $67. 8 $.2 $6. 21 $8. $. 12 $2.7 $9.1 7 $2. $7. $1. $. 1 $. $. 2 $. $. 2 $. $. 1 $28.9 $7. $28.8 $61.2 22 $28.8 $. 1 $28. $.7 1 $28.2 $9.1 18 $28. 16 $2. $6. $22.7 $1.1 29 $2. $. 9 $2. $2. 2 $18.1 $16. 1 $16.8 $1. 2 $16. $1. 11 $1.1 $1. $.8 -$1. 27 $1. $. 26 $1. $1. 2 $.2 $. $. -$.1 Change in business inventories billions of chained dollars 8 6 2-2 - MEDIAN $28.2 $. MEAN $2.8 $.8 STD DEV $12.9 $21.9 HIGH $. $67. LOW $. -$1. 1 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 1 - Net exports of goods and services (billions of constant dollars) Individual 2 2 2 -$9.1 -$61.9 -$97.6 -$9.8 -$6.7 2 -$99. -$7. 12 -$. -$7.2 2 -$7.7 -$7. 22 -$8.2 -$88. 2 -$1. -$. 27 -$1. -$18. 1 -$1.8 -$8. 1 -$18.2 -$9.2 21 -$19. -$9. 9 -$19. -$9.2 18 -$19. 2 -$2. -$. 26 -$2. -$2. 29 -$2. -$2. 2 -$2. -$. 16 -$2.1 -$9. 7 -$2. -$7.1 2 -$2.7 -$9. 1 -$2. -$. 1 -$2. -$. -$2. -$2. 19 -$2. -$7.1 -$28. -$92. 11 -$. -$. 8 -$6.8 -$99. -$7. -$6. 1 -$6. -$1. Net exports of goods and services billions of chained dollars -1-2 - - - -6 MEDIAN -$2. -$98.8 MEAN -$19. -$1. STD DEV $17. $. HIGH -$61.9 -$. LOW -$6. -$99. 16 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 11 - Government consumption and investment Individual 2 2 2.% 1 6.1%.2%.8%.% 2.%.%.% 2.% 27.7% 2.1% 26.2% 1.% 11.2%.% 12.% 1.2% 2 2.7% 1.% 2 2.7%.% 1 2.%.1% 2.% 2.1% 9 2.% 1.6% 18 2.% 2.2% 2.% 29 2.2% 1.% 2.2% 1.6% 8 2.1% 2.7% 21 2.1% 1.% 7 2.1% 2.6% 2 2.1% 2.% 1 2.% 2.8% 1 2.% 1.% 16 2.% 1.% 2 1.9% 1.9% 22 1.9% 1.% 1 1.9% 2.1% 2 1.7% 1.% 19 1.6% 1.1% Government consumption and investment 6 2 1-1 MEDIAN 2.2% 2.% MEAN 2.8% 2.% STD DEV 1.% 1.% HIGH 6.1%.% LOW 1.6% 1.1% 17 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 12 - Industrial production Individual 2 2 2.% 9 6.% 6.2%.9%.9% 7.7% 7.% 19.6% 7.2%.% 2.6%.%.6%.% 2.% 29.2% 6.8% 2.2% 6.2% 6.2%.% 2.1%.% 11.1%.% 1.%.% 1.%.1% 1.9%.6% 1.8% 6.% 12.8%.2% 2.8%.6% 16.8%.%.8%.% 21.7%.7% 8.7%.1% 22.6%.% 27.%.% 2.%.% 18.9%.6%.% 2 2.% 2.6% 1 2.% -.9% 26 1.6%.9% Industrial production 8 6 2-2 - MEDIAN.9%.2% MEAN.7%.7% STD DEV 1.% 1.8% HIGH 6.% 7.2% LOW 1.6% -.9% 18 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 1 - Car and light truck sales (millions) Individual 2 2 2 16.6 1 17. 17. 17.1 17. 17.1 17. 7 17.1 17. 11 17. 16. 9 16.9 17. 6 16.9 17.1 2 16.9 17.1 26 16.9 17.1 22 16.9 17. 2 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.9 2 16.8 17. 29 16.8 17. 1 16.8 16.9 28 16.8 16.8 1 16.7 17.2 2 16.7 16.9 2 16.7 16. 16 16.6 17. 1 16.6 16.9 19 16.6 16.9 2 16.6 16.9 21 16.6 16.6 16.6 16. 27 16. 16. 12 16. 16.8 8 16. 1.7 1 16.1 16. 18 16.1 1.9 16.1 Car and light truck sales millions of units 18 17 16 1 1 1 12 MEDIAN 16.8 16.9 MEAN 16.7 16.8 STD DEV.. HIGH 17. 17. LOW 1.9 1.7 19 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 1 - Housing starts (millions) Individual 2 2 2 1.8 2.2 1.9 28 1.9 1.88 1.91 1.7 2 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.7 18 1.9 19 1.88 1.86 2 1.88 1.8 7 1.88 1.7 1 1.88 1.8 2 1.87 1.7 2 1.86 1.7 22 1.8 1.7 26 1.8 1.78 1.8 1.78 1 1.8 1.68 2 1.8 1.6 8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1 1.82 1.7 21 1.82 1.6 2 1.82 1.8 1 1.81 1.77 16 1.81 1.6 11 1.8 1.71 6 1.8 1.7 17 1.8 1.69 1 1.79 1.7 1.77 1.7 1.7 1.62 12 1.7 1.7 29 1.7 1.7 9 1.72 1.68 1 1.7 1.6 27 1.7 1. Housing starts millions of units 2. 1.8 1.6 1. 1.2 1. MEDIAN 1.8 1.7 MEAN 1.8 1.71 STD DEV.7.11 HIGH 2.2 1.9 LOW 1.7 1.6 2 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 1 - Oil price (dollars per barrel - West Texas Intermediate) Individual 2 2 2 $1.1 29 $1. $. 7 $9. $. 1 $8. $7. $8. $. 1 $8. $28. 1 $7.69 $6.2 2 $7.7 $. 19 $6.87 $2.19 28 $6.7 $.8 16 $6.1 $2.8 $6. $. 2 $6. $. $6. $1. 6 $6. $28. 8 $.8 $1. 2 $. $. 21 $. $. 22 $.9 $1.1 $.8 $29.6 1 $.8 $29.6 $.87 $. $. $29. 11 $2. $28. 17 $2. $27.2 27 $2. $.2 2 $2. $. 26 $1.1 $1. 9 $29. $26.2 Oil prices - West Texas Intermediate dollars 2 2 1 1 MEDIAN $.9 $1.2 MEAN $. $1.8 STD DEV $2.62 $.22 HIGH $1. $. LOW $29. $26.2 21 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 16 - Unemployment rate Individual 2 2 2 6.% 1 6.% 6.% 29.8%.% 27.7%.6%.7%.% 1.7%.% 19.7%.% 1.6%.2% 28.6%.6%.6%.% 16.6%.% 12.6%.% 22.6%.% 2.6%.% 26.6%.% 9.6%.% 1.6%.% 11.6%.% 1.6%.2% 17.%.%.%.%.%.% 6.%.% 2.%.% 8.%.2% 21.%.2%.%.2% 1.%.1%.%.1% 18.% 7.%.%.%.% 2.%.1% 2.%.1% 2.%.8% 2.%.2% Unemployment rate percent 8 7 6 MEDIAN.6%.% MEAN.6%.% STD DEV.2%.% HIGH 6.% 6.% LOW.%.8% 22 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 17 - Inflation rate (Consumer Price Index) Individual 2 2 2 2.% 2.1% 2.7%.9%.1% 28.2%.%.2% 2.8% 1.%.%.% 2.7% 27 2.7% 2.9% 1 2.7% 2.8% 1 2.7% 2.1% 2 2.7% 1.7% 11 2.6% 2.9% 26 2.6% 2.% 2 2.% 2.8% 6 2.% 2.% 1 2.% 2.% 1 2.% 2.2% 7 2.% 2.8% 29 2.%.% 16 2.% 2.6% 19 2.% 2.2% 2.% 2.1% 18 2.% 17 2.2% 2.% 22 2.2% 2.% 2.2% 1.% 2 2.1% 2.% 1 2.1% 2.1% 8 2.1% 1.9% 2 2.%.% 2.% 2.% 2.% 1.8% 9 1.9% 2.% 21 1.9% 1.9% 12 1.% 1.2% 2 1.% 1.8% Inflation rate (CPI) percent 6 2 1 MEDIAN 2.% 2.% MEAN 2.% 2.% STD DEV.6%.% HIGH.1%.% LOW 1.% 1.2% 2 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 18 - Treasury constant maturity 1-year rate Individual 2 2 2 1.2% 1 2.7%.% 2 2.6% 2.% 1 2.%.% 1 1.91%.7% 1 1.88% 2.1% 11 1.79% 2.8% 12 1.7%.% 1.7% 2.% 1.7%.% 27 1.72%.1% 2 1.72% 2.2% 7 1.66%.6% 18 1.6% 2 1.6% 2.% 22 1.62%.19% 1.6% 2.2% 1 1.6% 1.71% 8 1.%.6% 6 1.%.% 9 1.% 2.% 26 1.% 1.7% 19 1.8% 2.6% 1.% 2.7% 16 1.% 2.7% 2 1.2% 2.% 2 1.1% 2.% Treasury 1-year rate percent 8 7 6 2 1 MEDIAN 1.6% 2.7% MEAN 1.7% 2.7% STD DEV.8%.% HIGH 2.7%.6% LOW 1.1% 1.71% 2 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 19 - Treasury constant maturity 1-year rate Individual 2 2 2.2% 1.2%.7% 1.%.% 2.9%.9% 11.91% 6.% 12.8% 6.2% 27.8%.% 29.8%.%.8%.7% 6.7%.%.7%.2% 2.71%.2% 16.62%.62%.62%.% 8.6%.7% 9.6%.% 1.6%.1% 1.7%.2% 18.% 2.%.7% 1.%.2%.%.% 26.%.% 19.2%.8% 7.1%.9% 21.%.9%.%.8% 22.%.7% 2.2%.7% 1.2%.% 2.1%.% Treasury 1-year rate percent 9 8 7 6 MEDIAN.6%.2% MEAN.6%.2% STD DEV.2%.% HIGH.2% 6.2% LOW.1%.% 2 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 2 - Change in J.P. Morgan narrow nominal dollar index Individual 2 2 2-6.7% 7.8% 2.9% 1 7.% 2.1% 11.%.% 1.% 1.2% 12 1.8% -.2% 1.1% -2.% 26 1.% 1.% 2-2.9% 2.7% 16 -.2% -1.% -.% -2.1% -.7% 1.% 27 -.% -.8% 9 -.% -.% 1 -.% -.2% 1-8.% -.9% 7-8.% -1.1% J.P. Morgan trade-weighted dollar 1 - -1 MEDIAN -.1% -.7% MEAN -1.% -.6% STD DEV.9% 2.6% HIGH 7.8%.% LOW -8.% -.8% 26 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 21a - Individual forecasts for 2 GDP Chain-type GDP Personal Change Net exports Government current price chained 2 consumption Nonresidential Residential in business of goods and consumption Individual dollars index dollars expenditures fixed investment fixed investment inventories services expenditures 1 6.% 2.2% 9.% 1.% 12.%.9% $. -$6. 6.1% 2 7.1% 1.9%.1%.% 11.2%.% $. -$2.7 2.7% 6.7% 1.7%.9%.% 1.1% 6.1% $1. -$2. 2.2% 6.8% 1.9%.8%.% 1.%.1% $. -$9.8.%.8%.%.8% 6.8%.% 7 6.8% 1.9%.8%.1% 9.7%.6% $2. -$2. 2.1% 8 6.% 1.%.8%.1% 11.6%.1% $.2 -$6.8 2.1% 9 6.6% 1.8%.7%.8% 1.%.% $2. -$19. 2.% 1 6.6% 1.7%.7%.9% 9.9%.7% $28.9 -$18.2 2.% 11 7.1% 2.%.7%.% 8.% 8.% $1.1 -$..2% 12 6.% 1.%.7%.7% 8.8%.8% $2.7 -$..% 1 6.% 1.%.7%.% 1.6%.1% $28.2 -$2. 2.% 1 6.7% 1.9%.6%.9% 1.2%.9% $28. -$1.8 1.9% 1 6.7% 2.%.6% 16 6.2% 1.%.6%.% 1.%.% $2. -$2.1 2.% 17.% 18 6.7% 2.%.%.7% 9.%.6% $28. -$19. 2.% 19 6.6% 2.%.%.% 9.%.6% $.1 -$2. 1.6% 2 6.% 1.8%.%.7% 9.2% 2.% $16. -$1. 2.7% 21 6.% 1.8%.%.9% 9.2%.% $8. -$19. 2.1% 22 6.% 1.8%.%.9% 8.%.% $28.8 -$8.2 1.9% 2 6.% 2.%.%.9% 9.8%.6% $.2 -$2. 2.1% 2 6.% 2.1%.%.% 9.8%.7% $. -$7.7 1.7% 2 6.% 2.1%.%.9% 9.%.7% $18.1 -$99. 1.9% 26 6.% 2.2%.2%.1% 6.6%.9% $1. -$2..2% 27 6.% 2.%.2%.%.% 2.% $1. -$1..7% 28.2% 29 6.2% 2.%.1%.%.8% 1.9% $2. -$2. 2.2%.% 1.%.1% 1 6.1% 2.%.%.7% 9.9% 1.8% $16.8 -$2. 2.% 2.7%.8%.9%.8%.7%.9% $. -$2..% 6.1% 1.2%.7%.% 7.7% 6.2% $.8 -$7. 2.%.9% 1.1%.7% 19.8%.% 21.9% $22.7 -$61.9.8%.9% 1.% 2.%.1% 2.6%.9% $28.8 -$28. 2.2% MEDIAN 6.% 1.8%.%.% 9.%.% $28.2 -$2. 2.2% MEAN 6.2% 1.7%.6%.7% 8.7%.9% $2.8 -$19. 2.8% STD DEV.7%.% 1.%.% 2.%.% $12.9 $17. 1.% HIGH 7.1% 2.% 9.% 19.8% 12.% 21.9% $. -$61.9 6.1% LOW.9%.% 2.%.% 2.6% 1.8% $. -$6. 1.6% 27 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 21b - Individual forecasts for 2 Change in Treasury Treasury J.P. Morgan Industrial Car & light Housing Oil Unemployment Inflation Rate constant maturity constant maturity narrow nominal Individual production truck sales starts Price Rate (CPI) 1-year rate 1-year rate dollar index 1 2.% 17. 1.7 $8. 6.%.% 2.%.% 2.1% 16.9 1.87 $6..% 2.7% 2.6%.9%.9% 16.9 1.91 $8..%.2% 1.7%.7% -.7%.8% 17.1 1.9 $.8.6% 2.2% 1.%.% -.%.6% 17.1 2.2 $..% 2.%.8% 6.2% 16.9 1.8 $6..% 2.% 1.%.7% 7.7% 17.1 1.88 $9..% 2.% 1.66%.1% -8.% 8.7% 16. 1.8 $.8.% 2.1% 1.%.6% 9 6.% 16.9 1.72 $29..6% 1.9% 1.%.6% -.% 1.% 16.8 1.8 $.8.6% 2.1% 1.6%.% -8.% 11.1% 17. 1.8 $2..6% 2.6% 1.79%.91%.% 12.8% 16. 1.7.6% 1.% 1.7%.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.82.% 2.7% 1.91%.7% 1.9% 16.7 1.79 $7.69.6% 2.% 1.88%.2% 7.% 1 16.6 1.88.6% 2.%.6% -.% 16.8% 16.6 1.81 $6.1.6% 2.% 1.%.62% -.2% 17 1.8 $2..% 2.2% 18.9% 16.1 1.9.% 2.% 1.6%.% 19.6% 16.6 1.88 $6.87.7% 2.% 1.8%.2% 2.2% 16.9 1.9.% 2.% 21.7% 16.6 1.82 $..% 1.9%.% 22.6% 16.9 1.8 $.9.6% 2.2% 1.62%.% 2.% 16.7 1.8.6% 2.1% 1.2%.% 2 16.8 1.88 $7.7.%.1% 1.6%.2% 2.8% 16.6 1.82 $..% 2.% 1.72%.71% -2.9% 26 1.6% 16.9 1.8 $1.1.6% 2.6% 1.%.% 1.% 27.% 16. 1.7 $2..7% 2.7% 1.72%.8% -.% 28 16.8 1.9 $6.7.6%.2% 29.2% 16.8 1.7 $1..8% 2.%.8% 1.7.% 2.% 1.% 16.1 1.81 $8..7% 2.7% 2.7%.2%.% 2 2.% 16.7 1.86 $2..% 1.% 1.1%.1%.% 16.6 1.8 $6..%.% 1.6%.%.% 1.9 1.77 $.87.7%.9% 7.8%.% 16.8 1.8 $6..% 2.% 1.7%.62% 1.1% MEDIAN.9% 16.8 1.8 $.9 2.% 2.% 1.6%.6% -.1% MEAN.7% 16.7 1.8 $. 2.% 2.% 1.7%.6% -1.% STD DEV 1.%..7 $2.62.6%.6%.8%.2%.9% HIGH 6.% 17. 2.2 $1..1%.1% 2.7%.2% 7.8% LOW 1.6% 1.9 1.7 $29. 1.% 1.% 1.1%.1% -8.% 28 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 22a - Individual forecasts for 2 GDP Chain-type GDP Personal Change Net exports Government current price chained 2 consumption Nonresidential Residential in business of goods and consumption Individual dollars index dollars expenditures fixed investment fixed investment inventories services expenditures 1.6% 2.8%.%.%.2% -1.9% $. -$1..2% 2.6% 1.6%.1%.7% 1.% -.% $. -$9. 1.% 6.% 2.%.%.% 11.6% -.% $. -$2. 2.%.2% 1.6%.6% 2.9% 7.% -.6% -$.1 -$6.7 2.%.6%.%.6% 6.6%.2% 7 6.% 1.9%.%.7% 9.2% -.% $7. -$7.1 2.6% 8.% 1.1%.%.9% 17.8% -7.6% $6. -$99. 2.7% 9.% 1.%.8%.% 9.%.8% $2. -$9.2 1.6% 1.% 1.7%.8%.% 8.8% -.9% $7. -$9.2 2.8% 11 6.% 2.7%.7%.%.%.% $1. -$..% 12.% 1.%.8%.2% 9.2% -.% $9.1 -$7.2 1.2% 1.8% 1.%.2%.% 11.7% -.6% $9.1 -$. 1.% 1 7.% 2.9%.%.% 1.6% 1.8% $.7 -$8. 2.1% 1 6.% 2.2%.1% 16.6% 1.%.%.% 8.% -12.9% $. -$9. 1.% 17.% 18 19 6.% 2.2%.%.9% 9.% -.1% $67. -$7.1 1.1% 2 6.% 2.1%.8% 2.9% 1.7% -6.2% $1. -$..% 21 6.% 2.%.%.1% 9.2% -12.7% $. -$9. 1.% 22.9% 1.%.%.2% 6.% 1.1% $. -$88. 1.% 2.7% 2.2%.6%.% 8.9% 1.% $. -$. 2.% 2 6.1% 2.7%.% 2.8% 9.1% -2.% $. -$7. 1.% 2 6.2% 2.%.8%.% 7.%.8% $16. -$7. 1.9% 26.6% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 2.% 2.9% $1. -$2. 1.% 27.9%.%.%.%.% 2.% $. -$18. 2.1% 28.7% 29 6.6% 2.%.%.2% 7.2% 1.% $. -$2. 1.%.1% 1.%.8% 1.9% 2.1% 2.7%.% 7.2% -.% $1. -$..1% 2.2% 1.%.%.%.9%.8% $. -$..% 6.7%.9%.% 2.8% 6.7% 2.% -$1. -$6. 2.1%.%.2%.1%.7%.1% 11.% $1.1 -$97.6.% 8.% 1.1% 6.%.7% 7.8% -9.2% $61.2 -$92. 1.6% MEDIAN.7% 1.9%.8%.% 8.6% -1.1% $. -$98.8 2.% MEAN.7% 1.8%.8%.% 8.2% -1.8% $.8 -$1. 2.% STD DEV 1.%.7%.7%.6%.%.2% $21.9 $. 1.% HIGH 8.%.% 6.%.7% 17.8% 11.% $67. -$..% LOW.%.% 2.7% 2.8% 2.% -12.9% -$1. -$99. 1.1% 29 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Table 22b - Individual forecasts for 2 Change in Treasury Treasury J.P. Morgan Industrial Car & light Housing Oil Unemployment Inflation rate constant maturity constant maturity narrow nominal Individual production truck sales starts Price rate (CPI) 1-year rate 1-year rate dollar index 1 -.9% 17. 1.6 $28. 6.%.%.%.% 2.% 16.9 1.7 $..2% 1.7% 2.%.9%.9% 16.8 1.7 $..% 2.8% 2.%.2% 1.%.% 17. 1.7 $29.6.% 1.% 2.7%.% -2.1%.% 17. 1.9 $29..% 1.8%.7% 6.% 17.1 1.7 $28..% 2.%.%.% 7 7.% 17. 1.7 $..% 2.8%.6%.9% -1.1% 8.1% 1.7 1.8 $1..2% 1.9%.6%.7% 9 6.2% 17. 1.68 $26.2.% 2.% 2.%.% -.% 1.1% 16.9 1.68 $29.6.% 2.1% 1.71%.2% -.9% 11.% 16. 1.71 $28..% 2.9% 2.8% 6.%.% 12.2% 16.8 1.7.% 1.2%.% 6.2% -.2% 1 6.% 1.7.1% 2.1%.7%.2% 1.6% 17.2 1.7 $6.2.2% 2.% 2.1%.% 2.1% 1 16.9 1.8.2% 2.2%.1% -.2% 16.% 17. 1.6 $2.8.% 2.6% 2.7%.62% -1.% 17 1.69 $27.2.% 2.% 18 19 7.2% 16.9 1.86 $2.19.% 2.2% 2.6%.8% 2 6.2% 17.1 1.8.8%.% 21.7% 16.6 1.6 $..2% 1.9%.9% 22.% 17. 1.7 $1.1.% 2.%.19%.7% 2.% 16. 1.6.% 2.% 2.%.7% 2 17. 1.8 $..% 2.7% 2.%.7% 2.6% 16.9 1.8 $..1% 2.8% 2.2%.2% 2.7% 26.9% 17.1 1.78 $1..% 2.% 1.7%.% 1.% 27.% 16. 1. $.2.6% 2.9%.1%.% -.8% 28 16.8 1.88 $.8.6%.% 29 6.8% 17. 1.7 $..%.%.% 1.62.2% 2.% 1.% 16. 1.77 $7..% 2.8%.%.7% 1.2% 2 2.6% 16.9 1.7 $..1% 1.8% 2.%.% 2.% 16. 1.78 $1..% 2.7% 2.2%.8% 2.6% 16.1 1.7 $..%.1% 2.9%.6% 16.9 1.6 $..1% 2.1%.%.% -2.% MEAN.7% 16.8 1.71 $1.8.% 2.% 2.7%.2% -.6% MEDIAN.2% 16.9 1.7 $1.2.% 2.% 2.7%.2% -.7% STD DEV 1.8%..11 $.22.%.%.%.% 2.6% HIGH 7.2% 17. 1.9 $. 6.%.%.6% 6.2%.% LOW -.9% 1.7 1.6 $26.2.8% 1.2% 1.71%.% -.8% Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

Contributors Zachery Anderson David Berson/Orawin Velz Jarlath Costello Dave Czechowski Robert DiCianni Rick Dziobak George A. Erickcek Peter G. Glassman Manuel Gutierrez William Hickey Saul H. Hymans Van Jolissaint Paul Kasriel Jack Kleinhenz Frank Kolbe Les Koska Bernard Lashinsky David L. Littmann Dave Maaske Ken Mayland James Meil Don Nichols Bernard Paniak Robert Schnorbus Keith Schwer Carolyn Scott Laura Spingola Jim Stansell Mark Stevens Carl Tannenbaum Paul Taylor David Teolis Evert Van Der Heide Kenny Vieth Tom Webb Nissan North America Fannie Mae Ford Motor Company Portland Cement Association Ispat Inland Inc. Accuride Corp. W.E. Upjohn Institute Bank One Kohler Co. DTE Energy RSQE - University of Michigan DaimlerChrysler Northern Trust Kleinhenz & Associates The Association for Manufacturing Technology Consultant Consulting Economist Comerica Bank Charleston Orwig Clearview Economics Eaton Corporation University of Wisconsin - Madison BJP Economics J. D. Power and Associates University of Nevada, Las Vegas McCoy Scott & Company Trade Resources Ltd. Michigan House Fiscal Agency Volkswagen of America LaSalle Bank/ABN AMRO National Automobile Dealers Association General Motors Calvin College A.C.T. Research Co., LLC Manheim Auctions 1 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2

2024 © financedocbox.com Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Feedback