Tipp City Exempted Village School District FIVE YEAR FORECAST July 1, 2014 June 30, 2019 1
Assumptions Updated to include 2014 actual figures Tax revenue estimate for 2015 reflects Miami County Auditor estimates Personnel and benefit costs include 2015 s current staffing levels 2
Implications of Forecast District s 2014 ending cash balance is higher than projected Cash balances decrease and reserves are tapped throughout the forecast Beginning in 2017 the District s estimated expenditures exceed estimated revenue Current assumptions and operations cannot be sustained beyond 2018 even with renewal of both emergency levies in tax year 2017 3
District Considerations Development of levy plan Development of new strategies that promote a positive cash balance Monitoring and projection of enrollment figures 4
Revenue/Expenditure Overview Ending Cash Balances: 2015 $ 3,929,125 2016 $ 4,430, 651 2017 $ 4,066,204 2018 $ (136,763) 2019 $ (8,684,534) $30,000,000.00 $25,000,000.00 $20,000,000.00 $15,000,000.00 $10,000,000.00 $5,000,000.00 $- $(5,000,000.00) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Revenue Expenditures Excess Ending Cash $(10,000,000.00) $(15,000,000.00) 5
Revenue Assumptions Property Tax Allocation, 11% General Fund Estimated Revenue - FY15 $22,989,991 Other Revenue, 4% Restricted Grants, 0% Property Taxes, 53% Unrestricted Grants, 33% Property Taxes Unrestricted Grants Restricted Grants Property Tax Allocation Other Revenue 6
Revenue Assumptions (continued) Property Taxes, Line 1.010 53% of estimated revenue Limited growth through 2018 25% of tax revenue are fixed levies or emergency levies expiring in tax year 2016 Tax values have decreased this tax year by approximately 7% causing effective tax rates to rise, and the loss of approximately $100,000 in tax revenue 7
Revenue Assumptions (continued) Unrestricted Grants in Aid, Line 1.035 33% of estimated revenue Foundation Formula Aid 2015 s estimate is based on current enrollment figures 2015 is last year of biennium budget at which time the state funding model could change Years beyond 2015 are estimated based on limited growth and unknown future formula components 8
Revenue Assumptions (continued) Unrestricted Grants in Aid, Line 1.035 33% of estimated revenue (continued) Open Enrollment Current estimate based on 2014 s funding level with no significant changes in enrollment Casino Tax Revenue 2014 funding was $130,000. Amount is projected to stay stable across the forecast 2014-2018 9
Revenue Assumptions (continued) Property Tax Allocation, Line 1.050 11% of estimated revenue Tax Credits Forecasted at.05% increase per year which is in-line with projected tax revenue growth State Reimbursement Loss reimbursement will fall off if emergency levies not renewed Tangible personal property loss reimbursement will be totally phased out by October 2018 Reimbursement totally removed from forecast in 2019 10
Expenditure Assumptions General Fund Estimated Expenditures - FY15 Principal - Other, $21,531,429 0% Interest & Fiscal Capital Outlay, 0% Charges, 0% Other Objects, 6% Supplies and Materials, 3% Purchased Services, 11% Personal Services, 60% Personal Services Benefits Purchased Services Supplies and Materials Capital Outlay Benefits, 20% Principal - Other Interest & Fiscal Charges Other Objects 11
Expenditure Assumptions (continued) Personal Services, Line 3.010 60% of estimated expenditures Base salary increases of 2% through 2019 Staffing changes for 2015 including all-day kindergarten staff, one nursing staff and part-time mechanic No major staffing increases after 2015 Realized savings in personal services from retirements and change in workdays for transportation staff 12
Expenditure Assumptions (continued) Employees Retirement/Insurance Benefits, Line 3.020 20% of estimated expenditures.5 increase in health insurance in 2015 10% increase for health insurance from 2016-2019 No increase for dental and life insurance through 2019 Increase in worker s compensation premium of 5% in 2015 based on moving from a group experience rating plan to an individual rating (the district anticipates moving back in to a group experience rating plan in 2016) 13
Expenditure Assumptions (continued) Purchased Services, Line 3.030 11% of estimated expenditures Utilities, professional development, special education services, open enrollment and community school payments, scholarship, PSEO and college credit plus deductions Utilities show a slight increase to prepare for inclement weather Professional development includes cost absorbed by the general fund due to expiration of Race to the Top funds Special education services cost are expected to increase in keeping with national trends Open enrollment and other tuition-type payments are based on 2014 s levels 14
Expenditure Assumptions (continued) Supplies and Materials, Line 3.040 3% of estimated expenditures Line item is increased 3% over the life of the forecast for anticipated increases in diesel fuel and instructional materials costs Capital Outlay, Line 3.050 Includes bus purchase in years 2016 to 2019 (this would be in addition to a bus purchased out of the permanent improvement fund) 15
Expenditure Assumptions (continued) Other Objects, Line 4.300 Includes transfers to the uniform school supplies fund for state-mandated waivers, and subsidy to nutrition services fund for anticipated deficit 16
Conclusion The district will see a 24% revenue reduction from 2015 to 2019 in greatest part due to expiration of two emergency levies Expenditures will climb by more than 21% over life of the forecast mostly due to cost of doing business Cash reserves not sufficient to maintain operations beyond 2018 Deficit spending in 2017 even with consideration of renewal of two emergency levies Forecast demonstrates district has been operating within in their means and has made appropriate budgetary decisions to extend the latest voted operating funds through to their expiration Additional programs, changes in services, and/or prevention of cut to services cannot be implemented without additional funding and renewal of both emergency levies 17