Research Update: Austrian Export Credit Agency Oesterreichische Kontrollbank 'AA+/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable Primary Credit Analyst: Alois Strasser, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-240; alois.strasser@spglobal.com Secondary Credit Analyst: Thomas F Fischinger, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-243; thomas.fischinger@spglobal.com Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Related Criteria And Research Ratings List WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 26, 2017 1
Research Update: Austrian Export Credit Agency Oesterreichische Kontrollbank 'AA+/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Overview In our view, there is an almost certain likelihood of extraordinary government support for Oesterreichische Kontrollbank (OKB). We base our opinion on OKB's critical role for and integral link with the government, which extensively guarantees OKB's assets and liabilities and provides continuous support by servicing drawn asset guarantees. We are affirming our 'AA+/A-1+' ratings on OKB. The stable outlook on OKB reflects that on Austria and our view that, given the legal framework and the irrevocable guarantee on most of the bank's debt, OKB's role for and link with the state are unlikely to change over the next two years. Rating Action On July 26, 2017, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'AA+/A-1+' long- and short-term issuer credit ratings on Austria's credit export agency Oesterreichische Kontrollbank AG (OKB). The outlook is stable. At the same time, we affirmed our 'A-1+' and 'AA+' issue ratings on OKB's certificates of deposit, commercial paper programs, and senior unsecured debt. Rationale The ratings on OKB reflect our opinion that there is an almost certain likelihood that the Republic of Austria (AA+/Stable/A-1+) would provide timely and sufficient extraordinary support to the bank in the event of financial distress. This is based on our assessment of OKB's: Critical role for Austria as its sole agent for the administration of the country's export guarantee program and its provision of export financing. In this respect, OKB serves an important sector of Austria's export-dependent economy. This role is further underpinned by OKB's assumption in 2008 of another government mandate through its subsidiary Oesterreichische Entwicklungsbank AG; and Integral link with the Austrian government, which plays a major role in defining the bank's strategy and provides unconditional, irrevocable, and timely guarantees for its bond issues. In addition, the government effectively guarantees most of OKB's assets and provides continuous support by servicing drawn asset guarantees. Even without government ownership, the state remains involved in OKB through government commissioners that participate in the bank's shareholder and supervisory board meetings. The ratings also reflect our view of OKB's prudent management and stable financial profile, including an extremely low-risk loan portfolio almost entirely comprising loans granted under OKB's export financing scheme. If OKB calls on the government to WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 26, 2017 2
Research Update: Austrian Export Credit Agency Oesterreichische Kontrollbank 'AA+/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; honor the guarantee on a loan, it has to transfer the underlying bank receivable to the government, which will leave OKB with no nonperforming loans. We are confident about the Austrian government's willingness and ability to support OKB as one of its key government-related entities in practically all circumstances, and we have no doubts regarding its propensity to support OKB. In addition, the government has sufficient financial resources to support OKB. OKB is not owned by the government, but rather by all prominent Austrian financial institutions, which we believe forms a stable ownership structure for the bank. However, the minister of finance appoints a commissioner and deputy commissioner who participate in the bank's shareholder and supervisory board meetings. Most of OKB's activities are governed by specific laws, and the government explicitly guarantees almost all of OKB's debt. The respective laws (export guarantees and export guarantee financing) were amended in April 2017 and extended until 2022-2023 with aggregate guarantee and guarantee financing limits reduced to 40 billion each. Because the majority of OKB's lending is collateralized by export guarantees, mainly under Austria's export guarantee program, the government effectively guarantees most of OKB's assets, as well. In addition, we understand that neither the government nor OKB intends to change the bank's business model, despite a decline in business volume and core earnings. We are convinced that the government will support the bank over and above the provision of state guarantees as long as OKB's focus on export promotion does not change. OKB also issues unguaranteed debt (French certificates of deposit; Kassenobligationen), which would not, in our opinion, impact OKB's credit quality, provided that such issuance remains within manageable risk limits and for the benefit of liquidity management of OKB's treasury supporting OKB's export credit business. As of year-end 2016, OKB's assets totaled 26.5 billion. This total reflects a further decrease compared with previous years. The overall decline primarily reflects banks' use of early redemption options, due to the low interest-rate environment. But it is also a reflection of slow export dynamics in 2016. Nevertheless, we acknowledge OKB's continued significance in export financing, which is further highlighted by the amount of guarantees it has granted on Austria's behalf. 2017 export growth forecasts for Austria look very promising, which would indicate a pick up in new business. In 2016, OKB administered 3.6 billion in new export guarantees for Austria, slightly below 2015 levels, though the number of new guarantee contracts increased. However, the overall volume of extended export guarantees declined further, as expiring guarantee volumes exceeded new guarantee issuances. The volume of outstanding export guarantees OKB administered declined again to 22.5 billion, down from 25.9 billion in 2015. The export financing scheme developed similarly to the export guarantee scheme, with some declines compared with the previous year. OKB issued new financing commitments of 4.5 billion, down by 11%. In 2016, export financing disbursements dipped by 7%, and repayments increased by 23% compared with 2015, resulting in a further decrease of outstanding export financing volume. Outstanding financing contracts ( 19.2 billion) and outstanding disbursements ( 15.7 billion) contracted further. Repayments should stabilize at lower levels in the next three years, as financing WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 26, 2017 3
Research Update: Austrian Export Credit Agency Oesterreichische Kontrollbank 'AA+/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; arrangements since the financial crisis have matured and been repaid. Despite the decreases in volumes in both export guarantees and export financing, OKB's role for Austria's export industry remains uncontested and we expect its business will increase again with further export growth and normalization of interest rates. One of our base-case assumptions is that OKB's and the government's strategies are aligned and focus on export credit. If we observed stronger deviations from the government's strategy, which could result in increasing commercial risk in OKB's balance sheet, we could negatively reassess our view of the likelihood of government support for OKB. We note that OKB has never suffered a loan loss on its balance sheet. Its core earnings in 2016 decreased to 43 million and have typically been modest. This is in line with its mandate. We expect core earnings to range between 40 million and 50 million in the next few years. This translates into about 16 basis points per average managed asset, such as loans to banks and other financial instruments. The bank's tier 1 capital ratio was 77.5% at year-end 2016, down from 83.1% in 2015, primarily due to an increase in its risk exposure, and indicates very strong capital. These ratios reflect the reclassification of items following the implementation of the EU's capital requirement regulation in OKB's accounting rules. Outlook The stable outlook on OKB reflects that on Austria and our view that, given the legal framework and the irrevocable guarantee on most of the bank's debt, OKB's role for and link with the government are unlikely to change over the next two years. We therefore expect our ratings and outlook on OKB to move in line with those on Austria. We could lower the ratings if we were to conclude that the government was about to change its relationship with OKB or withdraw its support, including the guarantees. Also, if the bank lost its monopoly position as the government's agency for export guarantees and export guarantee financings, we would consider a downgrade. Additionally, if OKB were to deviate from its current government-approved strategy and to become more involved in its own commercial-risk-related business, we could reassess OKB's role for and link with the government. We could upgrade OKB if we upgraded Austria and our assessment of an almost certain likelihood of extraordinary support remained the same. Related Criteria And Research Related Criteria General Criteria: Methodology For Linking Long-Term And Short-Term Ratings - April 07, 2017 General Criteria: Rating Government-Related Entities: Methodology And Assumptions - March 25, 2015 Criteria - Governments - Sovereigns: Sovereigns And Equalized GREs Commercial Paper Rating Methodology - March 29, 2012 WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 26, 2017 4
Research Update: Austrian Export Credit Agency Oesterreichische Kontrollbank 'AA+/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; General Criteria: Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks - September 14, 2009 Related Research Research Update: Republic of Austria 'AA+/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; - March 17, 2017 Ratings List Rating To From Oesterreichische Kontrollbank AG Issuer Credit Rating Foreign and Local Currency AA+/Stable/A-1+ AA+/Stable/A-1+ Certificate Of Deposit Local Currency A-1+ A-1+ Senior Unsecured Foreign and Local Currency[1] AA+ AA+ Foreign Currency[1] A-1+ A-1+ Commercial Paper Foreign and Local Currency[1] A-1+ A-1+ [1] Dependent Participant(s): Austria (Republic of) Certain terms used in this report, particularly certain adjectives used to express our view on rating relevant factors, have specific meanings ascribed to them in our criteria, and should therefore be read in conjunction with such criteria. Please see Ratings Criteria at www.standardandpoors.com for further information. Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at www.globalcreditportal.com and at spcapitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on S&P Global Ratings' public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following S&P Global Ratings numbers: Client Support Europe (44) 20-7176-7176; London Press Office (44) 20-7176-3605; Paris (33) 1-4420- 6708; Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-225; Stockholm (46) 8-440-5914; or Moscow 7 (495) 783-4009. Additional Contact: International Public Finance Ratings Europe; PublicFinanceEurope@spglobal.com WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JULY 26, 2017 5
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