Stock Market Briefing: S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation February, 1 Dr. Ed Yardeni 1-- eyardeni@ Joe Abbott -- jabbott@ Mali Quintana --1 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Figures S&P Earnings & Revenue Growth S&P Sectors Quarterly Earnings Per Share S&P Sectors Quarterly Revenues Per Share S&P Sectors Earnings Growth S&P Sectors Revenues Growth S&P Sectors Stock Price Indexes S&P Sectors Versus -Dma S&P Sectors Forward Earnings 1 S&P Sectors Forward Revenues 11 S&P Sectors Forward Profit Margin S&P Sectors Forward P/Es 1 S&P Sectors Relative Forward P/Es 1 S&P Sectors Forward P/Sales S&P Sectors Divisors 1 S&P Sectors Forward Earnings S&P Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index 1 S&P Sectors STRG, STEG & LTEG 1 S&P Sectors PEG Ratio S&P Sectors Operating Profit Margin 1 S&P Sectors Forecasted & Actual Profit Margins February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
1 - - - - -1 - Figure 1. S&P Earnings & Revenue Growth S&P EARNINGS PER SHARE GROWTH* (yearly percent change) Latest data thru /1 Actual y/y growth Estimated y/y growth** 1 Q 1 - - - - -1 - * Yearly growth rates capped at +1% and -1% due to extreme values. ** Industry analysts consensus expected earnings growth. Source: Standard & Poor s. Figure. S&P REVENUES PER SHARE (yearly percent change) 1 1 - - -1 - Latest (.) -1 - - - 1 Source: Standard & Poor s. - - Page / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
1 - -1 1 Figure. S&P S&P Sectors Quarterly Earnings Per Share Operating Earnings Per Share 1 - - - 1 - -1-1 - 1-1 - - -1 through Q-1 - - 1 1-1 -1 Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
S&P Sectors Quarterly Revenues Per Share Figure. S&P Revenues Per Share 11 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 through Q-1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Source: Standard & Poor s. Page / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
1 - -1-1 - -1-1 -1 Figure. S&P * Actual y/y growth Latest data thru /1 * Q Estimated y/y growth** * S&P Sectors Earnings Growth Q Q * * * Q Q Q - - 1 - - 1 - -1-1 - * Q * Q - 1 - -1-1 1 * Q * Q - 1 - -1 through Q-1 - -1 - * * - 1 Q Q - - -1 * Yearly growth rates capped at +1% and -1% due to extreme values. ** Industry analysts consensus expected earnings growth. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
1-1 - - 1-1 - - - S&P Sectors Revenues Growth Figure. S&P Revenue Growth y/y (.) 1 (1.) 1 (.) 1 (.1) 1-1 - - 1-1 - - - 1 - -1 (.) (-.) - - 1 1-1 - - (1.1) (-1.1) - 1 - -1 1 (.) Includes impact of Real Estate through Q-. 1 1 (-.) 1-1 -1 - - 1 1-1 - (.) 1 (-.) 1-1 - Source: Standard & Poor s. Page / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
1 Figure. S&P * (price indexes) S&P Sectors Stock Price Indexes 11 * 1 1 1 1 1 1 through September 1 1 1 -day moving average * S&P sector price indexes on ratio scales. Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
- - - - Figure. S&P (price index as percentage of -dma) % from -dma (.) S&P Sectors Versus -Dma (.1) - - - - - - (11.) (11.) - - - - - (.) (.) - - - - - - - - - - (-.1) through September 1 (11.) (-.) (1.) - - - - - - - (.) (-.) - Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
1 1 1 Figure. S&P (forward earnings*) S&P Sectors Forward Earnings 1 1 Annual consensus estimates Forward earnings 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES 1 1 1 1 11 through September 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 * Time-weighted average (in blue) of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year (in red). Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
1 1 11 1 Figure 1. S&P (forward revenues*) 1 1 Annual consensus estimates Forward revenues S&P Sectors Forward Revenues 1 1 INFORMATIN TECHNOLOGY 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 through September 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 * Time-weighted average (in blue) of the current year s and next year s consensus revenues estimates (in red). Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 11 / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
1 11 1 11 Figure 11. S&P (profit margin, percent) S&P Sectors Forward Profit Margin 1 1 Annual Forward* (11.) 1 1 1 1 (1.) 1 1 1 (.) (.1) 1... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1. (.1) (11.). (.) 1 1 1 1 (1.) 1 1 1 1 1 (1.) 1 1 1 1 through September 1 (1.). 11. 11. (11.1) 1 1 1 1 1 11 1. 1 1.. (11.) * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
1 1 1 1 Figure. S&P (forward P/E) P/E (.) S&P Sectors Forward P/Es (.) (.) (.) 1 11 1 1 1 1 (1.) (.) 1 1 1 (1.) (.) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 (1.) through September 1 (.) (11.) (.) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. Page 1 / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
1 1 1 1.. Figure 1. S&P P/E (forward P/E) S&P Sectors Relative Forward P/Es (relative forward P/Es by sector*) (1.) 1. 1. 1... 1. 1. 1. 1. (1.) (1.) 1. 1.. 1. 1. (1.). 1. 1. 1. (1.) 1. 1. 1...... 1. 1. (1.1) (.).. 1. 1. 1... 1. (.) through September 1 (.) 1 1. 1. 1. 1... 1. 1. (.) 1. 1... (.1) 1... * Sector s forward P/E divided by S&P forward P/E. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
.. 1. 1.. 1. 1. 1. 1... 1. 1. 1. 1... 1. 1. 1. 1...... 1. 1.... 1. 1. 1. 1.. Figure 1. S&P (forward P/S ratio) P/S (.) (1.) (1.) (1.) (.) (1.) S&P Sectors Forward P/Sales through September 1 (1.) (.) (1.1) (.) (1.) (1.). 1. 1. 1. 1......... 1. 1... 1. 1. 1. 1... 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.... 1. 1. 1. 1... Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
S&P Sectors Divisors Figure. S&P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 through September 1 1 1 1 1 1 Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 1 / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
S&P Sectors Forward Earnings 1 Figure 1. S&P (per share*) 1 11 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 through September 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
1-1 - - - - - - - 1-1 - - - - - - 1-1 - - - - - 1-1 - Figure. S&P NERI (.) Net Earnings Revisions Index* 1 11 1 1 1 (.) 1 11 1 1 1 (.) 1 11 1 1 1 S&P Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index (.) 1 11 1 1 1 (.) 1 11 1 1 1 (.) through September 1 1 11 1 1 1 (.) 1 11 1 1 1 (1.) 1 11 1 1 1 (11.1) 1 11 1 1 1 (-.) 1 11 1 1 1 (-.) 1 11 1 1 1 (.) 1 11 1 1 1 1-1 - - - - - - - - - - - 1-1 - - - 1-1 - - - * Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
1-1 - 1 1-1 -1 1 Figure 1. S&P (percent) STRG* (.1) STEG* (1.) LTEG* (.) 1 11 1 1 1 (.) (1.) (.) 1 11 1 1 1 (.) (1.) (.1) 1 11 1 1 1 (1.) (.) (.) STEG capped at % 1 11 1 1 1 STEG capped at % through September 1 1 11 1 1 1 (.) (1.) (11.1) S&P Sectors STRG, STEG & LTEG (.) (.) (.) 1 11 1 1 1 (.) (1.) (1.) 1 11 1 1 1 (.) (1.1) (.) 1 11 1 1 1 (.) (1.) (11.) 1 11 1 1 1 (.) (-1.) (.) 1 11 1 1 1 (.1) (.) (.) 1 11 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 * STRG & STEG: -month forward consensus expected growth. LTEG: -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. (1.) (.) (.) 1-1 - 1-1 - - - - - 1-1 - 1 - -1 Page 1 / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
. 1. 1. 1. 1..... Figure 1. S&P (PEG ratio*) (1.1) S&P Sectors PEG Ratio (1.) (1.).. 1. 1. 1. 1... 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. (1.) 1..... (1.)...... 1. 1. (.) 1. 1..... 1. 1..... 1. 1. 1. 1... 1. (.) (.) through September 1 11111 (.) (1.). 1 11 1 1 1. (.) 1. 1. (1.). 1 * Sector s forward P/E divided by sector s consensus projected -year earnings growth rate. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
1 1 1 1 - - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Figure. S&P Operating Profit Margin* (trailing -quarter, %) 1 11 1 1 S&P (.) (.) 1 11 1 1 (.) 1 11 1 1 (.) 1 11 1 1 1 11 1 1 S&P Sectors Operating Profit Margin through Q-1 (1.) (.) 1 11 1 1 (.) 1 11 1 1 (1.) 1 11 1 1 (.) 1 11 1 1 (1.) 1 11 1 1 (1.) 1 11 1 1 (1.) 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 * Operating margin in percent and based on trailing -quarter EPS and sales. Source: Standard & Poor s. Page 1 / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
1 S&P Sectors Forecasted & Actual Profit Margins Figure 1. S&P / / 11 1 1 Operating Profit Margin* Actual Q Trailing Implied Forward / / 1 1... / / 1.. 1 - / / 1-1 11 1 through Q-1 / / / / 1 1 1 11 1 * Actual from S&P based on trailing -quarter EPS and sales. Forecast implied from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S consensus forward EPS and sales, and pushed one year ahead. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation (trailing -quarter margin) and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (forward margin). Page / February, 1 / S&P Sectors Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation
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