Durban Debrief: New Start or More of the Same? Global Governance Programme Seminar 23 January 2012, Firenze Barbara K. Buchner Director, CPI Venice BEIJING BERLIN RIO DE JANEIRO SAN FRANCISCO VENICE +39 041 2700 426 Island of San Giorgio Maggiore 8 30126 Venice Italy climatepolicyinitiative.org
Preamble: a conference with low expectations Slow preparations the South African hosts Difficult global economic circumstances difficulties of developed countries to live up to short-term financial expectations raised in Copenhagen/Cancùn Deadlock regarding inclusion of emerging economices in a binding emissions reduction framework the firewall Ambiguous attitudes regarding Kyoto Protocol the EU left alone to extend the treaty; but with steep conditions At the same time: increased urgency in reducing emissions to address risk of global temperature increases between 3.5 C and 6 C in 2100 (IEA, UNDO, IPCC) 1
Key breakthroughs Avoidance of a gap: extension of the Kyoto Protocol and its associated mechanisms until 2017 or 2020 Operationalization of instruments and initiatives created in Cancùn, most notably the Green Climate Fund Creation of a new working group to develop new global climate architecture by 2015 for implementation by 2020 Acceptance of emerging and developing countries to the principle of GHG limits Finally a shared vision?
Outcomes Kyoto Protocol 2 Decisions 2 nd commitment period Basic rules for 2 nd CP 7 gases LULUCF Market mechanisms Countries Missing decisions & challenges Length of 2 nd CP: until 2017 or 2020 Reduction commitments, KP1 quotas (banked tons), forestry carbon credits.. Coverage (15% of global emissions) participating Belarus, Croatia, EU27, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Monaco, Norway, Switzerland, Ukraine not having taken a position yet Australia, New Zealand not participating Canada, Japan, Russia, USA (never ratified KP)
Outcomes Markets Decisions CDM Extended through 2 nd CP CCS projects approved Launch of work to expand CDM to forest and soil carbon Launch of review process of a new materiality standard for emissions reporting Joint Implementation Architecture extended through continuation of Supervisory Committee New market mechanisms Agreement to develop a new MBM Agreement that MBM could be developed for REDD+ Missing decisions & challenges CDM Formal decision on CDM continuation delayed to COP18 Joint Implementtaion Decision on JI extension beyond 2012 postponed New market mechanisms Decision on modalities and proceduress of new MBM delayed to COP18 Many uncertainties re REDD+
Outcomes Transparency Decisions Review process Biennial reports for all countries International Assessment and Review for developed countries International Consultations and Analysis for developing countries MRV of finance Web-based registry to record developing country actions and match with financial support LULUCF emissions New accounting rules for forest Standardization of reference emission levels Missing decisions & challenges Review process Biennial reports for developing countries less ambitious than hoped for Revision of guidelines for review of BR, inventories, NCs delayed (COP19) MRV of finance Details to be agreed, methodologies for reporting financial information not before 2014
Outcomes Green Climate Fund Decisions Governing instrument adopted: operating entity of financial mechanism of Convention Interim secretariat and trustee designated Overall design elements 24 member board Operates under guidance of COP Direct access Private sector facility Developing countries can contribute Missing decisions & challenges Board members Permanent secretariat Permanent trustee Design elements The GCF will be created within next 12 months many open issues Sources of funding In addition, establishment of institutions on technology development and transfer (Technology Executive Committee), adaptation (Adaptation Committee) and finance (Standing Finance Committee)
Outcomes Roadmap to a new climate deal Decisions Durban Platform Working group to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the UNFCCC What: legal something When: End date for negotiations 2015 Agreement applies from 2020 For whom: applicable to all parties Plus: focus on ambition gap Missing decisions & challenges Legal form What kind of legal something? Content Architecture: top-down/bottom up? Types of commitments Stringency / ambition Differentiation Challenges 2 C target out of reach? In force in 2020 or after? Timeline critical: Next IPCC report, formal review of 2 C target by 2015 US elections, 13 th Five Year Plan in China
Why the Durban agreement? EU Durban Platform to negotiate new legal something by 2015 US Legal symmetry: (i) applicable to all; (ii) no reference to common but differentiated responsibility China / India / BASIC Main request fulfilled (KP extension) 5-8 years before any possible commitments Ambiguity regarding interpretation of legal Russia / Japan / Canada Main objective: avoid KP-2 only voluntarily bound 5-8 years before any possible commitments AOSIS / Africa Main request fulfilled (KP extension) Process to enhance level of ambition of Copenhagen / Cancun pledges
Why is it different? A dramatic departure from some 17 years of U.N. hosted international negotiations on climate change (Rob Stavins, Harvard University) Is this the end of the Annex I vs. non-annex I distinction / firewall? Emerging economies like China, Brazil and India played a key role in driving the agreement Is this the beginning of a new world order?
The challenges Back to negotiate a global agreement is time running out? How to include countries accounting for the majority of global emissions in an architecture that leads to meaningful emission reductions in an acceptable timeframe at acceptable cost? Legal or not? But: Canada s example.
Bottom line Back on track? for a global agreement in 2015 that was hoped for in Copenhagen Is it enough? Notwithstanding the slow pace there is progress, with significant potential: the Durban Platform offers a mandate for change In the interim? The delay requires us to rely on national action supported by international pledges and review. Durban s decisions reinforce interim action: motivating and reinforcing national policy giving confidence to countries and investors that policy will last Focus on implementation of domestic action, on transparency, and on spending financial resources wisely
helping nations spend their money wisely BEIJING BERLIN RIO DE JANEIRO SAN FRANCISCO VENICE +39 041 2700 426 Island of San Giorgio Maggiore 8 30126 Venice Italy climatepolicyinitiative.org