Gorfine, Schiller, & Gardyn, P.A. Real Deal Seminar The U.S. and Washington Economies: Current Performance and Near Term Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University January 20, 2010
U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices Nov. 2006 Nov. 2009 RECESSION > > > > L.I. C.I.
% U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2006 2012 Forecast > > > > > > > > > > 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Global Insight
000s Initial Unemployment Claims (4-week moving average)
ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Mfg Non-Mfg
(000s) U.S. Housing Trends New & Existing Home Sales (000s) Existing (left scale) New (Right Scale)
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS Dec 09 = - 4.1 Mil Source: BLS Establishment Survey
000s US Job Change Month-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted Dec -85 Source: BLS
U.S. Unemployment Rate % Nov, Dec = 10.0 % Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
Consumer Confidence Present Situation 100 Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
% Growth in Total Consumption Outlays Forecast > > > > > Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
The Washington Economy
US GDP and Washington GRP % Washington GRP US GDP
000s Annual Job Change MOTYC Washington MSA
000s Annual Job Change MOTYC Suburban Maryland
(000s) 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Nov 08 Nov 09 Washington 15,300 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
000s Annual Job Change Washington MSA Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by Sector Nov 2008 Nov 2009 Washington MSA (000s) Total - 15,300 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
% 15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate November 2009 6.1 US 9.4 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
Total Active Listings Per Sale December Each Year PG LDN DC MONT ARL FFX
% Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
% Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban Maryland All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate Washington Metro, All Housing Types % 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Hanley Wood
Office Market Outlook: 2009-2011 (millions of square feet) 9/2009 Pipeline (1) Totals Space Available (1) Demand (1) Vacancy 9/09 Vacancy 9/11 D.C. 127.5 5.8 133.3 17.5 1.3 10.2% 13.2% Sub. MD 88.2 0.8 89.0 12.9 0.8 14.6% 14.5% N. VA. 175.9 1.7 177.6 23.4 2.0 13.5% 13.2% Metro 391.5 8.4 399.9 53.9 4.1 12.6% 13.5% Source: Delta Associates (1) Projected for 9/11
% Economic Outlook (GRP) 2014 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 D.C. 5.3 4.2 4.5 5.5 6.8 6.4 7.0 7.5 Sub. MD 4.8 3.4-17.8 5.7 8.7 10.6 13.0 15.1 No. VA 13.2 9.0-11.2 13.7 19.4 25.4 27.6 30.7 REGION 23.3 16.6-24.5 24.9 34.9 42.4 47.6 53.3 Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 45,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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The Amazing Race On Behalf of The Real Deal By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. January 20, 2010
Biggest Loser
Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2010* Source: International Monetary Fund *2009-2010 data are projections
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas, 2009 Source: International Monetary Fund
Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2008 Growth Rank Exchange Index 2008 % Change 3 London SE FTSE 100-31.3% 1 NYSE Group DJI A -33.8% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market -34.2% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite -35.4% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite -39.6% 8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General -40.0% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX -40.2% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225-41.5% 5 Euronext CAC 40-42.6% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index -47.9% 10 Borsa Italiana MIBTel -48.5% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -65.4% Source: Yahoo! Finance
Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2009 Growth Rank Exchange Index Growth 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite 77.2% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index 51.4% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 43.7% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 31.2% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX 29.9% 1 NYSE Group DJI A 26.8% 8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General 26.7% 3 London SE FTSE 100 22.1% 5 Euronext CAC 40 21.5% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market 18.4% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225 16.6% 10* Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB NA *Formerly MIBTel Index, Switched June 2009 (Up 52.2 percent from MIBTel January 2 nd Value)
American Idle
Recession Watch as of May 2009 Source: Moody s Economy
Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2009Q3 2008Q3: -0.5% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales January 2001 through November 2009 Source: Dismal.com
U.S. Chain Store Sales Growth by Type of Store December 2008 vs. December 2009 Source: Economy.com
Recession Watch as of November 2009 Source: Moody s Economy
Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2001 through December 2009 12/09: -85k Between December 2008 and December 2009, the U.S. lost 4.2 million jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups December 2008 v. December 2009 Absolute Change -4,164k All Told Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) November 2008 v. November 2009 Absolute Change MD Total: - 40.8K; -1.6% US Total: - 4,760K; -3.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Baltimore Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) November 2008 v. November 2009 Absolute Change Baltimore Total: -25.6K; -2.0% MD Total: - 40.8K; -1.6% US Total: - 4,760K; -3.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Washington, D.C. MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) November 2008 v. November 2009 Absolute Change DC MSA Total: -15.3K; -0.5% US Total: - 4,760K; -3.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) November 2009 Rank State Rate Rank State Rate Rank State Rate 1 NORTH DAKOTA 4.1 16 MINNESOTA 7.4 34 MISSISSIPPI 9.6 2 NEBRASKA 4.5 19 NEW MEXICO 7.8 36 NEW JERSEY 9.7 3 SOUTH DAKOTA 5.0 20 MAINE 8.0 37 GEORGIA 10.2 4 KANSAS 6.3 20 TEXAS 8.0 38 TENNESSEE 10.3 4 UTAH 6.3 22 CONNECTICUT 8.2 39 ALABAMA 10.5 6 MONTANA 6.4 22 WISCONSIN 8.2 40 KENTUCKY 10.6 6 VERMONT 6.4 24 WEST VIRGINIA 8.4 40 OHIO 10.6 8 VIRGINIA 6.6 25 DELAWARE 8.5 42 NORTH CAROLINA 10.8 9 IOWA 6.7 25 PENNSYLVANIA 8.5 43 ILLINOIS 10.9 9 LOUISIANA 6.7 27 NEW YORK 8.6 44 OREGON 11.1 9 NEW HAMPSHIRE 6.7 28 ALASKA 8.7 45 FLORIDA 11.5 DISTRICT OF 12 COLORADO 6.9 29 MASSACHUSETTS 8.8 46 COLUMBIA 11.8 13 HAWAII 7.0 30 ARIZONA 8.9 47 CALIFORNIA 12.3 13 OKLAHOMA 7.0 31 IDAHO 9.1 47 NEVADA 12.3 15 WYOMING 7.2 32 WASHINGTON 9.2 47 SOUTH CAROLINA 12.3 16 ARKANSAS 7.4 33 MISSOURI 9.5 50 RHODE ISLAND 12.7 16 MARYLAND 7.4 34 INDIANA 9.6 51 MICHIGAN 14.7 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: November 09 =10.0%
MD County Unemployment Rates November 2009 Rank Jurisdiction UR Rank Jurisdiction UR 1 Howard County 5.3 13 Kent County 7.7 1 Montgomery County 5.3 14 Baltimore County 7.8 3 Saint Mary s County 5.9 15 Garrett County 8.0 4 Calvert County 6.0 16 Allegany County 8.6 5 Charles County 6.1 17 Wicomico County 9.0 5 Frederick County 6.1 18 Cecil County 9.3 7 Carroll County 6.3 19 Somerset County 9.5 8 Anne Arundel County 6.7 20 Caroline County 9.6 9 Queen Anne s County 7.1 21 Washington County 10.0 10 Harford County 7.2 22 Baltimore City 10.9 11 Prince George's County 7.4 23 Dorchester County 11.9 11 Talbot County 7.4 24 Worcester County 14.6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment Rates, Largest 20 Metros(NSA) November 2009 Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, 1 DC, VA, MD, WV 6.1 11 St. Louis, MO-IL 9.9 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN- 2 WI 7.0 12 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 10.1 3 Baltimore-Towson, MD 7.7 13 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 10.3 4 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 7.7 14 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 10.3 5 Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, TX 7.9 15 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 10.3 6 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 8.1 16 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 10.6 7 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 8.2 17 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 11.5 8 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA- NJ-DE-MD 8.5 18 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 12.3 9 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 8.8 19 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 14.2 10 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 8.9 20 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 15.4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Commercial Real Estate Loans January 2001 through November 2009 Source: Federal Reserve Board
Metropolitan Office Vacancy Rates 3 rd Quarter 2009 Source: CB Richard Ellis
Local Office Vacancy Rates 3 rd Quarter 2009 Source: CB Richard Ellis
Trading Spaces
15 Year & 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through November 2009 Source: Freddie Mac
U.S. Existing Home Sales September 2001 through November 2009 Source: Economy.com
U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through November 2009 Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau
U.S. New Residential Construction January 1999 through November 2009 Source: Economy.com
Active Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction December 2008 vs. December 2009 8,050 Dec-08 7,050 Dec-09 Active Inventory 6,050 5,050 4,050 3,050 2,050 1,050 3,810 3,392 4,563 5,172 4,360 3,911 1,690 1,580 1,622 1,255 1,160 960 605 616 50 Anne Arundel Baltimore City Baltimore County Harford Howard Carroll Queen Anne's Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Dec. 2008: 43,674 Dec. 2009: 39,185
Active Housing Inventory by Suburban MD December 2008 vs. December 2009 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Dec. 2008: 43,674 Dec. 2009: 39,185
Current Hot Metro Housing Markets (150) Annual Existing Single Family Home Price Appreciation 2008Q3 vs. 2009Q3 Boston, New York, MA: NY: --7.0% 14.1% Philly, PA: - 5.6% Baltimore, MD: -6.5% Washington, DC: -2.5% Source: National Association of Realtors U.S.: -11.2% in 2009Q3
Worst Performing Metro Housing Markets (150) Annual Existing Single Family Home Price Appreciation 2008Q3 vs. 2009Q3 Source: National Association of Realtors U.S.: -11.2% in 2009Q3
Mortgage Banker s Association Delinquency Rates, Prime Mortgage Loans 2005Q2 through 2009Q3 National Mortgage Delinquency for 2009 Q2: 6.41% 2009 Q3: 6.84% Source: Economy.com The delinquency rate does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was 0.7 percent of Fixed Rate prime loans and 3.4 percent of all adjustable rate prime loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter.
Mortgage Banker s Association Delinquency Rates Subprime Mortgage Loans 2005Q2 through 2009Q3 National Mortgage Delinquency for 2009 Q2: 25.35% 2009 Q3: 26.42% Source: Economy.com The delinquency rate does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of fixed rate subprime loans in the foreclosure process was 2.6 percent while those with adjustable rates were 4.9 percent.
America s Next Top Model Stimulus, stimulus, stimulus; We ve seen the worst of it from a broader economic perspective; Too soon to tell if inflation will be problematic; U.S. dollar may be the economic element to watch; BRAC; Washington/Baltimore region will continue to outperform and the degree of outperformance will probably surprise you; This year represents a year of moderate improvement but commercial...; & 2011????
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