TEATRO REAL. Madrid.
Auditorio ADÁN MARTÍN Sta. Cruz de Tenerife INTRODUCTION In 2017, Spain experienced its fourth consecutive year of growth, having sustained a rate of over 3% in the past three years, hence standing out as one of the main engines of growth in the Euro Area. This economic dynamism has been accompanied by the correction of the macroeconomic imbalances that unleashed the economic crisis that began at the end of the last decade. More specifically, 2017 was the sixth consecutive year of external financing capacity for Spain, even after having grown significantly above our main trading partners in recent years. This is a clear reflection of the Spanish economy s sustainability and the structural change taking place in its growth pattern, much more balanced than in recent years. Both domestic and external demand contributed positively to economic growth in 2017. This is explained in the case of the domestic demand by private consumption and investment, and in the case of the external demand by the good performance of exports, arising from gains in competitiveness in recent years and from the increase in the exporting base. The expansion has been labour-intensive: the number of employed persons has increased by more than 1.6 million since the minimum recorded at the start of 2014. According to data from the labour force survey for the third quarter of 2017, net job creation in the previous 12 months exceeded half a million, placing the unemployment rate at 16.38%, more than 10 percentage points below the peak recorded at the start of 2013. Another aspect to be highlighted with respect to 2017 is the continuation of the deleveraging process in the private sector, which has reduced its debt by more than 50 percentage points of GDP since the peak reached in mid-2010. More specifically, private sector debt represented 163.1% of GDP in the second quarter of 2017, compared to 217.5% in the second quarter of 2010. In addition, further progress has been made in 2017 with regards to the consolidation and recapitalisation process of the Spanish financial sector. In this regard, the significant reduction in non-performing loans (NPLs) that has been taking place since December 2013, should be highlighted. Since then, the Spanish banking sector s NPL ratio at a consolidated level has been reduced by more than 50%, and stood at 4.68% at the end of the third quarter of 2017, according to data from the Bank of Spain. It is worth mentioning that the improvement in the Spanish financial sector s competitiveness has allowed the deleveraging of companies and households to be compatible with dynamism in the flow of new credit. In 2017, the Spanish economy continued progress on its fiscal consolidation process; it is expected that the public deficit in 2017 will have fallen to 3.1% of GDP (almost 8 percentage points below the peak recorded in 2009) meeting its established target. Public sector debt to GDP ratio continues to fall, as it has done since 2014; and it is estimated it will have closed 2017 at 98.1%, in line with the established target. The strategic lines of the Spanish Treasury s funding programme for will follow the practice of recent years. The Spanish Treasury expects to continue to extend the average life of its outstanding debt and to continue diversifying its investor base, while minimising its funding costs. The aforementioned strategy sits within a context of economic recovery in Europe, where the normalisation of monetary policy in the Euro Area is approaching, which is expected in turn to translate into a gradual upward trend in interest rates, especially for longer tenors. 2
Gran TeatrO DEL LiceO Barcelona Toni Bofill THE SPANISH TREASURY S FUNDING IN 2017 As shown in Table 1, in 2017 the Spanish Treasury issued a total of 233.9 billion euros, of which 45.0 billion euros provided net funding. Out of total gross issuance, 94.4 billion euros were issued through Letras del Tesoro and 139.5 billion euros through medium- and long-term instruments. Table 1: The Spanish Treasury s funding in 2017 (effective terms, million euros) End 2016 Forecast Strategy 2017 End 2017 Total Net Issuance 35,043 35,000 45,031 Total Gross Issuance 221,364 220,017 233,900 Medium- and Long-term 1 Gross Issuance 2 120,368 122,904 139,462 Amortisation 85,301 87,904 90,903 Net Issuance 35,067 35,000 48,559 Letras del Tesoro Gross Issuance 3 100,996 97,113 94,439 Amortisation 3 101,020 97,113 97,966 Net Issuance -24 0-3,528 1 Incudes debt in other currencies, Bonos and Obligaciones, assumed debts, loans and other debts. 2 Includes two loans signed with the European Investment Bank (EIB) for a cumulative amount of 798 million euros in 2017. 3 Does not include the 8-billion-euros very-short-term (17 days) loan signed in February 2017, which would increase the gross issuance and the amortisation in the same amount. The most outstanding aspects of the 2017 issuance policy include: A loan to fund the Social Security s deficit. This loan was announced in April and amounted to 10,192 million and caused an increase in the Spanish Treasury s net issuance of 10 billion euros. This did not, however, translate into an increase in fiscal deficit nor the Debt to GDP ratio. The early repayment of 3.0 billion euros of the loan from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), taking advantage of the low interest rate environment. The repayments were made in June and November 2017, representing the fifth and sixth voluntary early repayments since the loan was signed in 2012. The aggregate amount repaid in advance reaches 9.6 billion euros. The intention is to continue, and intensify to the extent possible, the early repayment process during. A reduction in the net issuance of Letras, with the aim of extending the average life and reducing short-term refinancing risk. 3
Teatro Romano Mérida The cost of the outstanding debt has continued to fall during 2017 recording an all-time low of 2.55%, as shown in Chart 1. The cost of new issuance has remained roughly unchanged from last year, increasing by one basis point -from 0.61% in 2016 to 0.62% in 2017. The gradual reduction of the average cost of the outstanding debt has allowed a reduction, in terms of national accounts, of the interest burden by 12% since its peak in 2014. Chart 1: Average annual cost of issuance and average cost of debt outstanding (%) 5.0 4.5 4.0 4.07 3.90 3.73 3.47 3.5 3.0 2.96 2.45 3.11 2.77 2.55 2.5 2.0 1.52 1.5 1.0 0.84 0.61 0.62 0.5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Cost of Debt Outstanding Cost at Issuance This all-time low in the average cost of outstanding debt has been possible even within a strategy of increased duration. Indeed, the average life of debt outstanding has increased from 6.20 years in 2013 to 7.13 years in 2017 (Chart 3), leading to a reduction in refinancing risks and in vulnerability of the interest burden in the event of an increase in Euro Area interest rates. In 2017, the increase in the average life was mainly due to a lower issuance in shorter tenors of Bonos and Obligaciones, and negative net issuance of Letras del Tesoro, with stable issuance in longer tenors (30 and 50 years), representing approximately 11% of medium- and long-term issuance in 2017. The increase of long-term issuance has been possible due to the high demand for Treasury securities throughout the year. Even during the instances of highest political tension in Catalonia, investors have continued to rely on the strength of the Spanish economy, as reflected in the new issuance bid-to-cover ratio (an indicator that measures the relationship between the amount of Treasury securities demand and the amount issued), which in 2017 stood at 2.14 times. The slight reduction in the 10-year spread against Germany, which ended 2017 at around 110 basis points, also illustrates this same point. 4
Teatro Calderón de la barca Valladolid Gerardo Sanz Chart 2: Marginal life (%) at issuance of Bonos and Obligaciones Chart 3: Average Life of Debt Outstanding (in years) 100% 7.2 7.13 80% 7.0 6.81 60% 40% 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.45 6.28 20% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 <3 3-5 5-9 9-15 >15 6.2 6.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 6.20 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 As usual, the bulk of gross issuance in 2017 (88.2%, around 206.3 billion euros) has been obtained through regular auctions carried out by the Spanish Treasury throughout the year. The 24 auctions of Letras del Tesoro have cleared at negative rates, at an average of -0.36% (compared to -0.17% in 2016). The average cost of issuance of Bonos (3 and 5 years) was 0.26% (0.33% a year before), while for Obligaciones (10, 15, 30 and 50 years) it was 1.90% (1.87% in 2016). Around 11.5% of the funding programme, 26.8 billion euros, has been covered through syndications. In 2017, the Spanish Treasury has launched four new Obligaciones del Estado through this issuance technique: two 10- year benchmark bonds, one 15-year benchmark and one 10-year Obligación del Estado linked to inflation in the Euro Area. The remaining 0.3% of funding (798 million euros) has been obtained through two new loans signed with the European Investment Bank (EIB). 5
Teatro de Rojas Toledo Alejandro García Bermejo Table 2: Issuance in 2017 by months, maturity and categories (billion euros, in effective terms) LETRAS MONTH 3m 6m 9m 12m TOTAL LETRAS <= 3 yr BONOS AND OBLIGACIONES 5 yr 10 yr 15 yr >= 30 yr Inflation EIB LOANS* MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM TOTAL GROSS FUNDING January 410 1,125 2,275 4,641 8,451 655 5,279 10,623 511 813 511 255 18,137 26,588 February 610 470 1,670 4,536 7,286 1,546 2,356 2,062 2,884 795 863 9,642 16,928 March 1,143 455 1,880 4,187 7,665 4,199 3,360 6,047 662 948 14,269 21,934 April 600 545 950 4,076 6,171 1,860 1,926 4,110 1,197 2,059 971 11,152 17,322 May 655 400 950 4,829 6,834 1,622 3,158 9,230 1,220 4,988 15,230 22,064 June 575 1,005 2,890 3,960 8,431 3,086 1,821 1,093 1,282 2,120 597 9,403 17,833 July 605 825 2,376 3,725 7,531 747 3,168 11,008 656 2,041 656 17,621 25,152 August 610 690 1,950 3,780 7,030 2,316 1,026 909 580 4,250 11,281 September 570 614 2,375 4,491 8,050 1,147 1,998 3,624 2,187 1,417 731 10,372 18,422 October 1,290 860 2,536 4,076 8,763 1,971 3,842 2,566 1,302 735 368 100 10,517 19,279 November 1,516 1,270 2,800 4,701 10,287 1,108 2,558 3,603 2,794 703 10,063 20,350 December 1,000 996 1,887 4,057 7,939 1,221 1,742 3,374 1,082 945 490 443 8,808 16,747 Total 94,4399 14,963 34,363 55,679 18,368 15,290 12,406 798 139,462 233,900 Percentage in 2017 mediumand long-term issuance " 11% 25% 40% 13% 11% 9% 1% 100% *The first EIB loan was disbursed in two tranches, one in January and the other in October In 2017, the Spanish Treasury has reaffirmed its commitment to maintain a broad and liquid curve of Bonos and Obligaciones del Estado linked to Euro Area inflation, issuing 12.4 billion euros (8.9% of total medium- and long-term issuance, higher than the 6.5% registered in 2016). In addition, this year for the first time an inflationlinked reference was issued in the first auction of each month except for the month of April, in which a new 5 billion euros 10-year reference was launched through syndication. In its first four years, the programme for Bonos and Obligaciones linked to European inflation has reached an outstanding volume of 41.8 billion euros, gradually increasing its weight to the current 4.3% of the total debt outstanding. This has allowed the Kingdom of Spain to become a benchmark issuer in this market, along with France, Italy and Germany. 6
Teatro Romano de Cartagena Cartagena THE FUNDING PROGRAMME FOR The funding programme will reduce planned net issuance to 40.0 billion euros, compared to 45.0 billion euros in 2017. This net funding will be attained through medium- and long-term gross issuance of 126.3 billion euros, after meeting 81.3 billion euros of redemptions and a negative net issuance of Letras del Tesoro amounting to 5.0 billion euros. This will allow the extension of the average life of debt and the convergence with other Euro Area countries in terms of the weight of Letras the outstanding debt securities. In sum, gross issuance is expected to reach 220.1 billion euros, 5.9% lower than 2017 s figure. Medium- and long-term gross issuance, more sensitive to supply, will be reduced in by 9.4% compared to 2017. Table 3: The Spanish Treasury s funding in (effective terms, million euros) End 2017 Forecast Strategy Total Net Issuance 45,031 40,000 Total Gross Issuance 233,900 220,145 Medium- and Long-term 1 Gross Issuance 2 139,462 126,310 Amortisation 90,903 81,310 Net Issuance 48,559 45,000 Letras del Tesoro Gross Issuance 3 94,439 93,835 Amortisation 3 97,966 98,835 Net Issuance -3,528-5,000 1 Includes debt in other currencies, Bonos and Obligaciones, assumed debts, loans and other debts. 2 Redemptions of Letras, and therefore also gross issuance, will depend on the Letras effective issuance throughout in. Pending the approval of a new Budgetary Law for, the estimate for the Spanish Treasury s funding needs is based on: The forecast of a reduction in the cash deficit, in line with the fulfilment of the commitments undertaken in the Stability Programme. Granting a new loan to the Social Security system. Maintaining the funding mechanisms for the autonomous regions and local authorities at similar levels to those of 2017. 7
Teatro Chapí Villena Regular issuance of Treasury securities As usual, the bulk of the Treasury s funding will be obtained in through regular auctions of Letras del Tesoro and Bonos and Obligaciones del Estado. The Annex to this document includes a detailed calendar with the 48 regular auctions of Letras del Tesoro and Bonos and Obligaciones del Estado planned as of today. In the case of Letras, two monthly auctions will continue to be carried out in : 6- and 12-month Letras will be auctioned in the first such auction, and 3- and 9-month Letras in the second. 3-, 6- and 9-month Letras are reopenings of 12-month Letras opened 9, 6 and 3 months before, respectively; in order for each Letra del Tesoro to acquire a sufficient degree of liquidity early on, standard practice is to issue larger volumes in its first and second tranches (12- and 9-month Letras), and to issue less in the last two reopenings (6- and 3-month Letras). Providing an adequate degree of liquidity for the Letras market is particularly important in the current environment of low interest rates, which makes the Letras liquidity their main appeal. Regular auctions of Bonos and Obligaciones del Estado with fixed coupon will continue to take place typically on the first and third Thursday of every month. In addition, a bond linked to European inflation may be added to the first auction of Bonos and Obligaciones of each month. On these occasions, as per recent practice, two separate ranges will be announced on the Monday of the week when an auction is taking place: one for nominal Bonos and Obligaciones and another for linked Bonos and Obligaciones. The expected amount of issuance will be within the limits announced - there will be no obligation to reach the upper limit. The amount finally issued will take into consideration bidding and demand structure, outstanding amount of each instrument and the evolution of the Kingdom of Spain s funding needs. Non-regular issuance of Treasury securities Apart from the regular auctions, in the Treasury plans to also use bank syndications as a method of issuing State Debt. This method has been used in recent years for issuance of the first tranches of Obligaciones del Estado with a tenor equal to or greater than 10 years. This method is particularly useful for the issuance of new bonds, insofar as it allows larger volumes to be issued than in a regular auction, while guaranteeing the distribution of the securities among a diversified investor base. In addition, and as in prior years, the Spanish Treasury may summon special auctions, outside of the regular schedule, to provide liquidity in certain instruments and thus improve the functioning of the secondary market. These auctions are carried out without an announced issuance objective, although the amount issued is usually much lower than that of regular auctions, and are reserved exclusively for the Kingdom of Spain s Primary Dealers in Bonos and Obligaciones. 8
Teatro Victoria Eugenia San Sebastián Finally, the Spanish Treasury may also issue debt through private placements, in which an instrument is issued directly to an investor. This is a method commonly used to issue Medium Term Notes, although the Treasury may also issue Bonos and Obligaciones del Estado through this placement technique. The Treasury will receive proposals for private placements from its Primary Dealers in Bonos and Obligaciones del Estado. These transactions will be considered insofar as they contribute to the diversification of the Spanish Treasury s investor base and the reduction of its financial burden, as well as their fit with the strategic guidelines set out by the Spanish Treasury. SPECIAL THANKS TO PRIMARY DEALERS The Spanish Treasury acknowledges and is grateful for the key role played by its Primary Dealers in the provision of liquidity and in the dissemination of Spanish Public Debt. The most active Primary Dealers for Bonos and Obligaciones del Estado in 2017 have been HSBC France, Banco Santander SA, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Citigroup Global Markets Limited and Barclays Bank PLC. The most active Primary Dealers for Letras del Tesoro have been Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Société Générale, Banco Santander SA, J.P. Morgan Securities PLC and Citigroup Global Markets Limited. 9
TeatrO Principal Palma A u c t i o n c a l e n d a r J a n u a r y 1 2 3 4* 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 F e b r u a r y 1* 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 1 2 3 4 M a r c h 1* 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 A p r i l 1 2 3 4 5* 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23/30 24 25 26 27 28 29 M a y 1 2 3* 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 J u n e 1 2 3 4 5 6 7* 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 J u l y 1 2 3 4 5* 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23/30 24/31 25 26 27 28 29 A u g u s t 1 2* 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 September 1 2 3 4 5 6* 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 O c t o b e r 1 2 3 4* 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 November 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8* 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 December 1 2 3 4 5* 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24/31 25 26 27 28 29 30 Letras del Tesoro auctions B and O auctions * Could include inflation-linked Bonos and Obligaciones. 10