Meta analysis real estate * Update due to the publication of the "ImmobilienAlmanach Schweiz 218" (22th December 216) by FPRE. Transactions price indexes FPRE: as in the previous quarter, condominiums in the higher price segment were traded at a lower price in the 3rd quarter (1, with respect to previous quarter, 6, with respect to previous year). Condominiums in the medium (+2,7% with respect to previous quarter) and lower price segment (+1, with respect to previous quarter) are more expensive. Single family houses in all segments were traded at a higher price (+2,8% with respect to previous quarter, 1, with respect to previous year). Rental market indexes FPRE: While rents for apartments rose slightly in the third quarter (+,9%), rents for new buildings remained stable (+,). Office buildings are rented more cheaply in all regions of the country (4,9%). According to SWX IAZI real estate prices index, prices for private property rose by, in the 3rd quarter of 217 compared to the previous quarter. On an annual basis, price growth slowed down in the 3rd quarter, from 3, in the previous quarter to 2,. Property apartment prices fell (,), while the prices for single family houses (+1,) increased. Credit Suisse/Schweizer Baumeisterverband: Robust economy leads to record revenues for all segments of the construction industry (3rd quarter 217). The increase is mainly due to civil engineering (+7,8%) and commercial construction (+5,). Rented apartments: market and quoted rent indexes Switzerland (1) Office space: market and quoted rent indexes Switzerland (2) 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Rented apart., quoted rents (WP) Rented apart., market rents (FPRE) Office, quoted rents (WP) Office, market rents (FPRE) Source: Fahrländer Partner, Wüest Partner. Source: Fahrländer Partner, Wüest Partner. Transaction price indexes for condominiums Switzerland (3) Transaction price indexes for single family houses Switzerland (4) 22 22 1 1 CON TP (WP) CON TP (IAZI) CON TP (FPRE) SFH TP (WP) SFH TP (IAZI) SFH TP (FPRE) Source: Fahrländer Partner, IAZI, Wüest Partner. Source: Fahrländer Partner, IAZI, Wüest Partner. Forec.rented ap. / ap.buildings (tot. / av. new constr.) (5) Forecast commercial spaces (total) (6) CS(2) Rents Forecast FPRE(1) UBS(2) WP(2) CS(2) FPRE(1) Rents Prices Rents Rents Rents Rents Prices 218 218 219 217 217 Forecast 218 218 219 1..9% Office Retail UBS(2) Rents 217 2. 3. WP(2) Rents 217. 2. Forecast private property (total / average new construction) (7) CS(2) Forecast Priv. prop. SFH 218 CON FPRE(1) SFH 219 Note: market rents / transaction prices (1) resp. quoted rents / prices (2). Source: Credit Suisse, Fahrländer Partner, UBS, Wüest Partner. CON For all sources please check the glossary and impressum on the last page. UBS(2) 217 SFH. CON. SFH.8% WP(2) 217 CON. Real Estate? We know tomorrow's trends. Intershop Holding AG Puls 5 Giessereistrasse 18 Postfach 1 31 Zürich +41 ()44 544 1 info@intershop.ch www.intershop.ch
Business conditions: economy Forecast Swiss economy GDP, real Unemployment rate Rate of price increase (8) 217 218 KOF UBS SECO CS BAK Créa Ø CS Créa UBS SECO KOF BAK Ø.8.8.9 1. 1. 1.7 1. 1.7 1.8 1.8 2. 2.2 2.3 2. Créa SECO KOF CS UBS BAK Ø Créa KOF CS SECO UBS BAK Ø 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3. 3. 3. 3.1 BAK KOF SECO CS UBS Créa Ø SECO KOF CS UBS BAK Créa Ø.3.4.5.5.5.7.5.2.4.5.6.6 1..6 Real GDP and unemployment rate (9) GDP real unemployment rate growth potential The potential growth lies between 1, and 1,8%, according to calculations by Fahrländer Partner. Note: The values for 217 and 218 are forecasts. Since June 216, the unemployment rate is based on occupation numbers according to the pooling 212214 (revised from January 214). Source: figure 1, page 1, Fahrländer Partner (growth potential). Change in job vacancies (1) Index of job vacancies TOTAL Banking and insurance sector Real estate sector IT sector 2nd quarter 217 1. 4. 3.8% 9. Growth of employment Unemployment rate Note: The values for 217 and 218 are forecasts. Source: FSO. Rate of price increase (11) 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.... 1. 1. Inflation forecast SNB 217 218 Forecast September 217.. Libor.7 Forecast June 217.. Libor.7 SNB: for 217, the conditional inflation forecast has risen marginally to,, from, (previous quarter). For 218, the SNB anticipates an inflation rate of,, compared to, (last quarter); for 219, it expects a rate of 1,, (last quarter:1,). 219 1. 1. inflation Zielband Preisstabilität (SNB) 3 month libor Note: The values for 217 and 218 are forecasts. Source: cf. meta analysis economy, SNB. Link meta analysis economy: https://metaanalysen.ch/en/ Lost in the charts and numbers of the meta analysis? Check our interpretation: http://www.pwc.ch/immospektive Marie Seiler PwC Real Estate Advisory Birchstrasse 5 Zürich +41 59 792 56 69 www.pwc.ch/immobilien
Business conditions: demand indicators Net immigration permanent resident population (in 1') (12) 3rd quarter 217 Net immigration permanent resident population (in 1') 11.3 6 4 2 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter Source: FSO (19), SEM (from 21). Net immigration monthly (in 1') (13) 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec September 217 Net immigration permanent resident population (in 1') 6.6 215 216 217 Arithmetic mean 215 Arithmetic mean 216 Arithmetic mean 217 Source: SEM. Permanent resident population Switzerland (in m) (14) 1 9 8 7 6 5 216 Total (in m) Swiss (in m) Foreigners (in m) Foreigners (in %) Permanent resident population Switzerland 8.4 6.3 2.1 2 4 3 2 1 (Swiss) (foreigners) Permanent resident population in m (left column) Source: FSO. Population growth by MS regions (213216) (15) Note: circle radius in relation to population 216. Maps: FSO Geostat/Swisstopo. Source: FSO, cf. ImmobilienAlmanach Schweiz 218.
Business conditions: supply indicators Forecast construction activity (16) in m CHF 217 218 219 217 218 219 Building construction 54'519 54'737 55'63 Building construction.7%.. Residential building Industrial buildings 33'767 11'617 34'249 11'55 34'473 11'51 Residential building Industrial buildings.7% 1.9% 1. 1..7%. Infrastructure 9'136 8'982 9'89 Infrastructure.9% 1.7% 1. Source: BAK. Construction index Credit Suisse / SBV (nominal) (17) 2 1 1 3rd quarter 217 Construction index total Building construction Residential building Index (1996=) 146 121 132 1 The construction index is an early indicator of the construction economy in Switzerland which foresees current quarter turnover. 1 2 Residential building Building construction Construction index Source: Credit Suisse, SBV. Production price index (change p.a.) (18) 1 8% 8% 3rd quarter 217 Index (3=) Change compared to previous quarter Stone and concrete construction Apartment building SFH Build. and commer. constr. 19.7 19.9 112.7.8%.8% 1. The production price index PKI shows the change in production costs..9%.9% 1. Apartment building (stone and concrete construction) SFH (stone and concrete construction) Build. and commer. constr. Source: SBV. Swiss construction price index (change p.a.) (19) 1st half year 217 Index (21=) Total building sector 11.3 Office buildings 99.3 Apartment buildings.4 Change compared to previous half year.8%. 1..7%.7%. The Swiss building price index is an economic indicator which captures the evolution of construction costs as reported by local construction companies. New construction of office buildings Total building sector New construction of apartment buildings Source: FSO.
Business conditions: financing and interest rates Expected interest rate (2) Seco KOF Créa Interest rate 3monthLibor Yields on Confederat. bonds (1 years) 217 218 217 218.7%.7%...7%.7%.... Source: Seco, KOF, Créa. Interest rates (21) 6 3 month Libor Confederation bonds (1 years) October 217.7%. 4 September 217 Saving growth. 4 3 month Libor Confederation bonds (1 years) Saving growth Monet. aggreg. M2 (in bn. CHF, r.s.) Source: SNB. Yields on Confederation bonds (22) 4. 3. 2. normal band Duration 1 year 5 years 1 years 2.1.217 four weeks ago one year ago.6.6.7.47%.58%.88%..1.5 1.. 1. 2. 1 5 1 15 2 25 3 Laufzeit in Jahren 2.1.217 four weeks ago one year ago Source: SNB, Fahrländer Partner (normal band). Mortgage rates (23) Mortgage September 217 variable fixed (3 years) fixed (5 years) fixed (1 years) 2. 1. 1. 1.7% variable fixed (3 years) fixed (5 years) fixed (1 years) Source: SNB. Mortgage volume inland (in bn CHF) (24) 1 August 217 Volume in billion CHF 8% Mortgage claims 965.6 2.8% 6 4 Volume (right scale) Source: SNB.
212:2 212:4 213:2 213:4 214:2 214:4 215:2 215:4 216:2 216:4 217:2 217:4 1986:4 1988:4 19:4 1992:4 1994:4 1996:4 1998:4 :4 2:4 4:4 6:4 8:4 21:4 212:4 214:4 216:4 Share of answers Index points Share of answers Index points Indicators: rented apartments / apartment buildings Market rents rented apartments (RA) Switzerland (25) 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 3rd quarter 217 Index (=) Changes to previous quarter Lake Geneva 111.9 1.8% Jura 97.7. Espace Mittelland 15.5. Basel 118.1. Zurich 118.2. Eastern Switzerland 112.5. Alps 112.4 1.9% Southern Switzerland 13.1 3. 3. 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3. 4. 1.. Market rents FPRE (old building) Market rents FPRE (total) Market rents FPRE (new construction) Source: Fahrländer Partner. Market rents RA by region (26) Market rents RA by spatial type (27) 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Lake Geneva Espace Mittelland Basel Zurich Eastern Switzerland Southern Switzerland Top locations Other agglomerations Large central agglomerations Rural area Source: Fahrländer Partner. Source: Fahrländer Partner. Quoted rents RA by regions (28) Quoted rents RA Switzerland (change p.a.) (29) 17 15 Lake Geneva Western Switzerland Berne Central Switzerland NW Switzerland Zurich Eastern Switzerland Southern Switzerland Source: SNB, Wüest Partner. Rented apartments (WP) Source: Homegate, Wüest Partner. Homegate Price expectation apartment rent (next 12 months) (3) Price expectation apartment building (next 12 months) (31) % % 6 4 2 4 2 4 4 6 % % % % 6 4 2 4 2 4 4 6 % % Strongly increasing Increasing Decreasing Strongly decreasing Strongly decreasing Decreasing Increasing Strongly increasing Price expectation index (right column) Price expectation index (right column) Note: structural breaks in the 4th quarter 1996 and the 2nd quarter 212. Source: HEV Switzerland / FPRE. Source: HEV Switzerland / FPRE.
Cyclical outlook from an owner view: apartment buildings Apartment building Switzerland (32) Old building New construction average Demand Supply Cashflow Initial yields Market values 217 218 217 218 217 218 217 218 218 219 New construction upper Apartment building (new construction average) regional (33) Lake Geneva Jura Swiss plateau (Mittelland) Basel Zurich Eastern Switzerland Alpine area Southern Switzerland Source: Fahrländer Partner. Demand Supply Cashflow Initial yields Market values 217 218 217 218 217 218 217 218 218 219 All valuations are done from a owner/seller perspective. The circles describe the actual situation: green: unproblematic situation; yellow: some problems; Helptext to the valuations: https://metaanalysen.ch/de/immobilien/ red: problematic situation. Arrows describe the forecast for the following 12 months. : expected improvement; : stable; : expected aggravation. Fahrländer Partner Raumentwicklung Seebahnstrasse 89 Münzrain 1 3 Zürich 35 Bern +41 44 466 7 +41 31 348 7 info@fpre.ch bern@fpre.ch www.fpre.ch www.fpre.ch
212:2 212:4 213:2 213:4 214:2 214:4 215:2 215:4 216:2 216:4 217:2 217:4 1986:4 1988:4 19:4 1992:4 1994:4 1996:4 1998:4 :4 2:4 4:4 6:4 8:4 21:4 212:4 214:4 216:4 Share of answers Index points Share of answers Index points Indicators: office property Rents for office spaces Switzerland (net rents) (34) Market rents for office spaces by region (net rents) (35) 3rd quarter 217 Index (=) Lake Geneva 19.8 Espace Mittelland 89.2 Basel 77.9 Zurich 95.2 Changes to previous quarter 5. 4.7% 3.7% 5. 11.9% 12. 12. 12. 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Office, quoted rents (WP) Office, market rents (FPRE) Source: Fahrländer Partner, Wüest Partner. Source: Fahrländer Partner. Market rents for office spaces (net rents) (36) Quoted rents for office space (net rents) (37) 17 17 15 15 7 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 6 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Lake Geneva Espace Mittelland Basel Zurich Geneva Berne Basel Zurich Source: Fahrländer Partner. Source: SNB, Wüest Partner. Office space: supply rate for the major Swiss centres (38) Direct investments initial yield (net) for office buildings (39) Datenstand 3rd Q. 217 3rd Q. 217 2nd Q. 217 4th Q. 216 JLL CBRE WP CS Zurich Geneva Basel Switzerland 3.7% 4. 3. 5. 6. 12. 3. 6.7% 6. 7. 3.8% 4. 8% 7% Change compared to previous quarter JLL CBRE WP CS JLL CBRE WP CS.4p.p.3p.3p.5p.7p.1p.3p.2p 1.1p.3p.4p.6p 1.6p.3p.7p 1.p.3p.3p.p 7 8 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Class A Class B Class C Source: JLL, CBRE, WP, CS. Source: CSL Immobilien. Price expectation office rent (next 12 months) (4) Price expect. commercial and office buildings (next 12 months) (41) % % 6 4 2 4 2 4 4 6 % % % % 6 4 2 4 2 4 4 6 % % Decreasing Strongly decreasing Decreasing Strongly decreasing Increasing Strongly increasing Increasing Strongly increasing Price expectation index (right column) Price expectation index (right column) Source: HEV Switzerland / FPRE. Note: structural breaks in the 4th quarter 1996 and the 2nd quarter 212. Source: HEV Switzerland / FPRE.
Cyclical outlook from an owner view: retail and office buildings Office buildings (new construction) Switzerland (42) Office Demand Supply Cashflow Initial yields Market values 217 218 217 218 217 218 217 218 218 219 Office buildings (new construction) regional (43) Demand Supply Cashflow Initial yields Market values 217 218 217 218 217 218 217 218 218 219 Lake Geneva Jura Swiss plateau (Mittelland) Zurich Source: Fahrländer Partner. Basel Eastern Switzerland Alpine area Southern Switzerland All valuations are done from a owner/seller perspective. The circles describe the actual situation: green: unproblematic situation; yellow: some problems; red: problematic situation. Arrows describe the forecast for the following 12 months. : expected improvement; : stable; : expected aggravation. Helptext to the valuations: https://metaanalysen.ch/de/immobilien/ Sales area Switzerland (44) Demand Supply Cashflow Initial yields Market values 217 218 217 218 217 218 217 218 218 219 Sale Sales area regional (45) Demand Supply Cashflow Initial yields Market values 217 218 217 218 217 218 217 218 218 219 Lake Geneva Jura Swiss plateau (Mittelland) Basel Zurich Eastern Switzerland Alpine area All valuations are done from a owner/seller perspective. The circles describe the actual situation: green: unproblematic situation; yellow: some problems; red: problematic situation. Arrows describe the forecast for the following 12 months. : expected improvement; : stable; : expected aggravation. Helptext to the valuations: https://metaanalysen.ch/de/immobilien/ Source: Fahrländer Partner. Southern Switzerland
1986:4 1988:4 19:4 1992:4 1994:4 1996:4 1998:4 :4 2:4 4:4 6:4 8:4 21:4 212:4 214:4 216:4 Share of answers Index points 216:1 216:2 216:3 216:4 217:1 217:2 217:3 217:4 Indicators: single family houses Price indexes SFH Switzerland (46) 17 15 Offer prices WP Transaction prices FPRE (av. seg.) Transaction prices WP Transaction prices IAZI Source: Fahrländer Partner, Wüest Partner, ZKB. Price indexes SFH (change p.a.) (47) Price indexes SFH Switzerland, market segments (48) 17 15 8% Transaction prices FPRE (l. seg.) Offer prices WP Transaction prices FPRE (av. seg.) Transaction prices IAZI Transaction prices FPRE (up. seg.) Source: Fahrländer Partner, Wüest Partner, ZKB. Source: Fahrländer Partner. Transaction prices FPRE (av. seg.) Trans. prices FPRE (global) Price indexes SFH Zurich region (49) Price indexes SFH Lake Geneva region (5) 1 24 17 22 15 1 Offer prices WP Transaction prices WP Offer prices WP (Lake Geneva reg.) Trans. prices ZH FPRE (av. seg.) ZWEX Trans. prices GE FPRE (av. seg.) Source: Fahrländer Partner, Wüest Partner, ZKB. Source: Fahrländer Partner, Wüest Partner. Trans. prices WP (Lake Geneva reg.) Trans.prices VD FPRE (av. seg.) Price expectation single family houses (next 12 months) (51) % % 6 4 2 2 4 6 % % 4 4 Decreasing Increasing Price expectation index (right column) Strongly decreasing Strongly increasing Note: structural breaks in the 4th quarter 1996 and the 4th quarter 8. Source: HEV Switzerland / FPRE.
1986:4 1988:4 19:4 1992:4 1994:4 1996:4 1998:4 :4 2:4 4:4 6:4 8:4 21:4 212:4 214:4 216:4 Share of answers Index points 216:1 216:2 216:3 216:4 217:1 217:2 217:3 217:4 Indicators: condominiums Price indexes CON Switzerland (52) 1 1 17 15 Offer prices WP Transaction prices FPRE (av. segment) Transaction prices WP Transaction prices IAZI Source: Fahrländer Partner, Wüest Partner, ZKB. Price indexes CON (change p.a.) (53) Price indexes CON Switzerland, market segments (54) 21 1 1 17 15 8% 1 Offer prices WP Transaction prices FPRE (av. segment) Transaction prices IAZI Transaction prices FPRE (l. segment) Transaction prices FPRE (up. segment) Transaction prices FPRE (av. segment) Transaction prices FPRE (global) Source: Fahrländer Partner, Wüest Partner, ZKB. Source: Fahrländer Partner. Price indexes CON Zurich region (55) Price indexes CON Lake Geneva region (56) 3 2 1 26 24 22 1 Offer prices WP Transaction prices WP Offer prices WP (Lake Geneva reg.) Trans. prices WP (Lake Geneva reg.) Trans. prices ZH FPRE (av. segment) ZWEX Transaction prices GE FPRE (av. seg.) Transaction prices VD FPRE (av. seg.) Source: Fahrländer Partner, Wüest Partner, ZKB. Source: Fahrländer Partner, Wüest Partner. Price expectation condominiums (next 12 months) (57) % % 6 4 2 4 2 4 4 6 % % Decreasing Increasing Price expectation index (right column) Strongly decreasing Strongly increasing Note: structural breaks in the 4th quarter 1996 and the 4th quarter 8. Source: HEV Switzerland / FPRE.
Cyclical outlook from an owner view: private property Single family houses Switzerland (58) Demand Supply Market values 217 218 217 218 218 219 Lower segment Average segment Upper segment Single family houses (average segment) regional (59) Demand Supply Market values 217 218 217 218 218 219 Lake Geneva Jura Swiss plateau (Mittelland) Basel Zurich Eastern Switzerland Alpine area Southern Switzerland All valuations are done from a owner/seller perspective. The circles describe the actual situation: green: unproblematic situation; yellow: some problems; red: problematic situation. Arrows describe the forecast for the following 12 months. : expected improvement; : stable; : expected aggravation. Helptext to the valuations: https://metaanalysen.ch/de/immobilien/ Source: Fahrländer Partner. Condominiums Switzerland (6) Demand Supply Market values 217 218 217 218 218 219 Lower segment Average segment Upper segment Condominiums (average segment) regional (61) Lake Geneva Demand Supply Market values 217 218 217 218 218 219 Jura Swiss plateau (Mittelland) Basel Zurich Eastern Switzerland Alpine area Southern Switzerland All valuations are done from a owner/seller perspective. The circles describe the actual situation: green: unproblematic situation; yellow: some problems; red: problematic situation. Arrows describe the forecast for the following 12 months. : expected improvement; : stable; : expected aggravation. Helptext to the valuations: https://metaanalysen.ch/de/immobilien/ Source: Fahrländer Partner.
Sources and glossary Glossary Note Indicator Source Data as of 1 quoted rent 15 room apartment Wüest Partner 3rd quarter 217 Market rents rented apartments (total) Fahrländer Partner 3rd quarter 217 2 quoted rent office space Wüest Partner 3st quarter 217 Market rents office (total) Fahrländer Partner 3rd quarter 217 34 Wüest Partner 217 IAZI 3rd quarter 217 Average segment Fahrländer Partner 3rd quarter 217 57 Cf. forecast below 811 Cf. meta analysis economy Fahrländer Partner Link 12 Quarterly figure of monthly data FSO, SEM 3rd quarter 217 13 SEM September 217 14 FSO, FOM 216 15 ImmobilienAlmanach Schweiz 218 FSO, FOM 216 16 Realmatch36 1.6.215 17 Nominal change compared to same quarter of previous year Credit Suisse, SBV 3rd quarter 217 18 SBV 3rd quarter 217 19 FSO, FOM 1st half year 217 2 Cf. meta analysis economy Fahrländer Partner Link 21 Cf. meta analysis economy Fahrländer Partner Link 22 SNB 2.1.217 2324 SNB August 217 2527 Fahrländer Partner 3rd quarter 217 28 SNB/WP 1st half year 217 29 Homegate Wüest Partner 3rd quarter 217 3rd quarter 217 331 HEV Schweiz/FPRE 4th quarter 217 3233 Fahrländer Partner 4th quarter 217 3436 Fahrländer Partner 3rd quarter 217 37 SNB/WP 1. half year 217 3839 Jones Lang Lasalle 3rd quarter 217 CBRE 3rd quarter 217 Wüest Partner 2nd quarter 217 Credit Suisse 4th quarter 216 441 HEV Schweiz/FPRE 4th quarter 217 4245 Fahrländer Partner 4th quarter 217 465 Fahrländer Partner 3rd quarter 217 Wüest Partner 217 ZKB 3rd quarter 217 51 HEV Schweiz/FPRE 4th quarter 217 5256 Fahrländer Partner 3rd quarter 217 Wüest Partner 217 ZKB 3rd quarter 217 57 HEV Schweiz/FPRE 4th quarter 217 5861 Fahrländer Partner 4th quarter 217 Forecasts Schweizer Immobilienmarkt 217 Credit Suisse 216 ImmobilienAlmanach Schweiz 218 Fahrländer Partner 217 ImmoMonitoring 218 I 1 Wüest Partner 216 UBS Real Estate Focus 217 UBS 216 Hochbauprognose 217223 BAK 217
Impressum Disclaimer Impressum Fahrländer Partner Raumentwicklung (FPRE) elaborates the meta analysis real estate with highest care. Despite this, it is not possible to guarantee the accuracy, correctness, timeliness and completeness of all the information. Also check original sources. The economic data can be found in the current meta analysis economy. The meta analysis real estate is compiled based on the newest available data. Authors: Mattia FareiCampagna, Dominik Matter and Jaron Schlesinger. You can subscribe for free to the meta analysis real estate: https://metaanalysen.ch/de/ Sponsoring Contact The meta analysis economy is a free service offered by Fahrländer Partner Raumentwicklung. We offer you the possibility to appear as a sponser in this publication. Please contact us. Fahrländer Partner Raumentwicklung Seebahnstrasse 89 Münzrain 1 3 Zürich 35 Bern +41 44 466 7 +41 31 348 7 meta@fpre.ch meta@fpre.ch www.fpre.ch www.fpre.ch