US Economic Indicators: February 9, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents 1-9 February 9, 218 / www.
635 5 Figure 1. CORPORATE PROFITS TAXES* (billion dollars, four-quarter sum, ratio scale) 635 5 32 32 215 215 11 11 5 48 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 5 * Pretax corporate profits reported to the IRS minus after-tax corporate profits (excluding IVA and CCAdj). Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 6 55 Figure 2. US CORPORATE GLOBAL EFFECTIVE TAX RATE (percent) 6 55 45 Corporate Tax Rates US Statutory Tax Rate (21.) Global Effective Tax Rate* (2.7) 45 35 35 25 2 25 22 2 15 48 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 15 * Pretax corporate profits reported to the IRS minus after-tax corporate profits divided by pretax profits. Using four-quarter averages. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and US Treasury. Page 1 / February 9, 218 / www.
Figure 3. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS: CORPORATE INCOME TAXES* (billion dollars, 12-month sum) Dec 2 2 1 1 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 * Employment and general retirement, unemployment insurance, and other retirement. Source: US Treasury Department. 4 Figure 4. FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: CORPORATE INCOME TAXES (billion dollars) 4 3 3 2/8 Dec 2 2 2 1 Deposits (26-day sum) Receipts (12-month sum) 2 1 1 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source US Treasury and Haver Analytics. 1 Page 2 / February 9, 218 / www.
55 Figure 5. US CORPORATE PROFITS TAX RATES (percent) 55 45 Corporate Tax Rates Statutory Rate (35.) S&P Effective Tax Rate* (26.4) 45 35 219 35 25 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 216 25 * Includes US federal taxes and taxes collected by other domestic and foreign taxing authorities. Derived from S&P Analyst Handbook, where tax rate is income tax as percentage of pretax income. Source: Internal Revenue Service and Standard & Poor s. 6 Figure 6. MEASURES OF CORPORATE PROFITS TAXES (billion dollars, 4Q sum) 6 Corporate Profits Taxes IRS data* (283.4) NIPA data** (472.7) Q4 2 2 1 1 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 * Based on 12-month sum of monthly data converted to end of quarter. ** Pretax corporate profits reported to the IRS minus after-tax corporate profits (both excluding IVA and CCAdj). Source: US Treasury and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 3 / February 9, 218 / www.
Figure 7. EFFECTIVE CORPORATE TAX RATES (percent 4Q moving averages) Corporate Tax Rates Based on NIPA Data* (2.7) Based on US Treasury Data** (13.) 2 2 1 1 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 * Pretax corporate profits minus after-tax corporate profits divided by pretax profits. Includes US federal taxes and taxes collected by other domestic and foreign taxing authorities. Using four-quarter averages. ** US federal corporate tax receipts collected by the IRS. Based on 12-month sum of monthly data converted to end of quarter. Source: US Treasury and Bureau of Economic Analysis. 6 Figure 8. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS: CORPORATE INCOME TAXES* (billion dollars, 12-month sum) 6 Corporate Profits Taxes** (475.4) Dec 2 2 1 1 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 * Employment and general retirement, unemployment insurance, and other retirement. ** Pretax corporate profits reported to the IRS minus after-tax corporate profits excluding IVA and CCAdj. Source: US Treasury Department and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 4 / February 9, 218 / www.
6 Figure 9. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS: TAXES ON CORPORATE INCOME (as a percent of profits before tax) 6 2 52 54 56 58 18 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 2 2 Source: Federal Reserve Board. 6 Figure 1. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS: TAXES ON CORPORATE INCOME (4Q moving average) (as a percent of profits before tax (4Q moving average) 6 2 52 54 56 58 18 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 2 2 Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 5 / February 9, 218 / www.
725 675 625 575 525 475 375 325 Figure 11. CORPORATE INCOME TAXES (ratio scale, billions dollars) S&P Income Tax (8.8) Reported in GDP Accounts (4Q average of saar data)* (472.7) 216 725 675 625 575 525 475 375 325 275 275 225 225 175 175 125 125 75 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 75 * Pretax corporate profits reported to the IRS minus after-tax corporate profits (excluding IVA and CCAdj). Source: Standard & Poor s and US Treasury. Figure 12. CORPORATE INCOME TAXES (billions dollars) 375 325 Corporate Income Taxes S&P Corporations* (8.8) Reported to IRS by all Corporations** (4Q sum) (283.4) 216 375 325 275 Q4 275 225 225 175 175 125 125 75 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 75 * Includes US federal taxes and taxes collected by other domestic and foreign taxing authorities. Derived from S&P Analyst Handbook, where tax rate is income tax as percentage of pretax income. ** Federal corporate tax receipts only based on 12-month sum of monthly data converted to end of quarter. Source: Standard & Poor s and US Treasury. Page 6 / February 9, 218 / www.
1 Figure 13. FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM: PROFITS & TAXES PAID (billion dollars) 1 1 1 Federal Reserve Banks Profits (in NIPA, annual rate) Earnings Deposited with Treasury (12-month sum) Dec 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: US Treasury and Bureau of Economic Analysis. 7 65 Figure 14. US STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE: CORPORATION NET INCOME TAXES (billion dollars, 4Q sum) 7 65 6 6 55 55 45 45 35 35 25 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Census Bureau. 25 Page 7 / February 9, 218 / www.
6 59 5 51 Figure 15. CORPORATE PROFITS TAXES* (billion dollars, four-quarter sum, ratio scale) Corporate Profits Taxes minus Profits in NIPA Federal Reserve Banks (.2) Corporate profits taxes (472.7) 6 59 5 51 47 4 39 3 31 27 2 19 1 11 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Corporate Profits Taxes minus Profits in NIPA Federal Reserve Banks minus US State & Local Government Revenue: Corporation Net Income Taxes (347.1) 47 4 39 3 31 27 2 19 1 11 * Pretax corporate profits reported to the IRS minus after-tax corporate profits (excluding IVA and CCAdj). Source: US Treasury, Census Bureau, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4 41 39 37 3 3 31 29 27 2 2 21 19 17 1 1 11 Figure 16. CORPORATE PROFITS TAXES* (billion dollars, four-quarter sum, ratio scale) 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Corporate Profits Taxes minus Profits in NIPA Federal Reserve Banks minus US State & Local Government Revenue: Corporation Net Income Taxes (347.1) IRS data** (283.4) 4 41 39 37 3 3 31 29 27 2 2 21 19 17 1 1 11 * Pretax corporate profits reported to the IRS minus after-tax corporate profits (excluding IVA and CCAdj). ** Based on 12-month sum of monthly data converted to end of quarter. Source: US Treasury, Census Bureau, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 8 / February 9, 218 / www.
Figure 17. CORPORATE PROFITS TAXES* (billion dollars, four-quarter sum, ratio scale) 32 216 32 215 Corporate Profits Taxes minus Profits in NIPA Federal Reserve Banks minus US State & Local Government Revenue: Corporation Net Income Taxes (annual average) (334.) 215 11 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 11 * Pretax corporate profits reported to the IRS minus after-tax corporate profits (excluding IVA and CCAdj). Source: US Treasury, Census Bureau, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 9 / February 9, 218 / www.
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