Quarterly Investment Update First Quarter 2017
Market Update: A Quarter in Review March 31, 2017 CANADIAN STOCKS INTERNATIONAL STOCKS Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Emerging +244% +386% +311% +173% +621% +737% +748% +503% +955% US STOCKS REAL ESTATE AND FIXED INCOME Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Global REITs 1-Month T-Bills Short-Term Bonds Intermediate Bonds Global Bonds (hedged) +505% +148% +759% +200% +047% +013% +150% +124% +021% Data is in Canadian dollars Market segment (index representation) as follows: Canadian stocks: Large Cap (S&P/TSX 60), Small Cap (MSCI Canadian Small), Growth (MSCI Canadian Growth), Value (MSCI Canadian Value); US stocks: Large Cap (S&P 500), Small Cap (Russell 2000), Growth (Russell 3000 Growth), Value (Russell 3000 Value); International stocks: Large Cap (MSCI EAFE [net div]), Small Cap (MSCI EAFE Small Cap [net div]), Growth (MSCI EAFE Growth [net div]), Value (MSCI EAFE Value [net div]), Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging [net div]); Real Estate: Global REITs (S&P Global REIT [net div]); Fixed Income: Canadian (Canadian 1-month T-bills), Short Term Bonds (FTSE TMX Canada Short-Term Bond), Intermediate Bonds (FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond), Global Bonds-Hedged (Citi World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years [hedged to CAD]) Indexes are not available for direct investment Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance does not guarantee future returns S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group Russell data copyright Russell Investment Group 1995-2017, all rights reserved Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved Citigroup bond indexes copyright 2017 by Citigroup 1
Survey of Long-Term Performance March 31, 2017 Annualized (%) Asset Class Index 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years CANADIAN STOCKS Since Inception Inception date Large Cap S&P/TSX 60 1927 686 855 492 790 871 Feb-87 Small Cap MSCI Canadian Small 2258 206 380 288 685 874 Jul-90 Growth MSCI Canadian Growth 1357 543 660 304 648 719 Jan-82 Value MSCI Canadian Value 2558 525 804 554 941 1103 Jan-82 US STOCKS Large Cap S&P 500 1999 1739 2001 904 764 1130 Feb-51 Small Cap Russell 2000 2925 1403 1900 865 845 1198 Jan-79 Growth Russell 3000 Growth 1907 1795 1992 1060 706 1131 Jan-79 Value Russell 3000 Value 2285 1548 1977 745 822 1261 Jan-79 INTERNATIONAL STOCKS Large Cap MSCI EAFE (net div) 1436 689 1209 249 441 923 Jan-70 Small Cap MSCI EAFE Small Cap (net div) 1444 1034 1568 453 601 682 Jan-93 Growth MSCI EAFE Growth (net div) 1003 795 1228 343 367 912 Jan-75 Value MSCI EAFE Value (net div) 1877 571 1181 147 500 1184 Jan-75 Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Markets (net div) 2108 640 487 417 609 1126 Jan-88 REAL ESTATE Global REITs S&P Global REIT (net div) 275 1344 1425 316 787 864 Jul-89 FIXED INCOME Canadian Bills Canadian 1-Month T-Bills 048 062 075 113 236 614 Jun-73 Canadian Short-Term Bonds FTSE TMX Canada Short-Term Bond 211 237 238 361 457 774 Jan-80 Canadian Bonds FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond 151 409 352 482 590 889 Jan-80 Global Bonds (hedged) Citi World Government Bond Index 1-5 042 167 188 292 392 626 Jan-85 Years Data is in Canadian dollars MSCI EAFE Small Cap Index return is price-only prior to January 1999 data inception MSCI Emerging Markets Index return is gross dividends prior to January 1999 data inception S&P Global REIT Index return is gross dividends prior to January 2001 data inception S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group Russell data copyright Russell Investment Group 1995-2017, all rights reserved Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved Citigroup bond indexes copyright 2017 by Citigroup Indexes are not available for direct investment Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results 2
Value of Stock Markets around the World January 1990 March 2017 Number of Countries Number of Stocks Total Value March 31, 2017 Weights Change from Previous Year 01/90-03/17 Average Canada 1 318 165 Trillion 33% -03% 31% United States 1 2,449 2672 Trillion 529% +14% 467% Developed Markets 21 3,147 1605 Trillion 318% -34% 434% Emerging Markets 21 2,661 607 Trillion 120% +32% 68% Total 44 8,575 5049 Trillion 1000% 80% 70% 60% Intl Developed Markets Maximum 6707% January 1990 US Stock Market Maximum 5688% January 2002 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% US Stock Market Minimum 2989% January 1990 Emerging Markets Minimum 072% January 1990 CAN Stock Market Minimum 201% December 1998 Emerging Markets Maximum 1515% September 2010 0% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Global market capitalization weights are not static; they change across time Data is in US dollars and values are beginning of month The proxies for the Canadian and US equity markets are based on the respective country markets from the MSCI All Country World IMI Index The international developed market proxy is the MSCI All Country World IMI ex USA ex Canada Index The proxy for emerging markets is the MSCI All Country World IMI Index (Emerging Markets) MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved Intl Developed Markets Minimum 3109% November 2016 CAN Stock Market Maximum 504% March 2011 3
The Randomness of Quarterly Returns March 31, 2017 This table shows from top to bottom the highest returning asset classes each quarter over the last 15 quarters Each asset class is color coded based on the legend below Highest Return Lowest Return Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2017 631 926 1367 1138 641 499 1377 1437 014 626 1018 454 902 1068 668 1037? 252 625 901 612 416 131 916 1300 002 066 875 139 641 805 454 621? 024 415 729 606 287 106 270 1149-071 015 856 113 560 598 164 473? -014 358 500 476 199 071 070 1101-079 012 436 038 511 545 012 241? -102 068 209 362 121 050 023 415-126 -091 098 012 493 129-056 124? -236 026 045 277 079 023 002 258-163 -410 011-077 331 119-190 047? -408 011 038 078 045-059 -094 082-171 -786-006 -523 311 012-286 021? -484-223 024 020 023-119 -147 020-919 -1228-140 -896 141 006-344 013? Q2 2017 Canadian Stocks US Stocks International Developed Markets Emerging Markets Global REITs Canadian 1-Month T-Bills Canadian Bonds Global Bonds The lack of a pattern indicates that picking which asset classes will be the best or worst performers is virtually impossible Portfolios combining these various investments will avoid extreme returns Data is in Canadian dollars Indexes represented as follows: Canadian stocks (S&P/TSX Composite Index), US stocks (Russell 3000 Index), International Developed Markets (MSCI EAFE Index), Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index), Global REIT (S&P Global REIT Index), Canadian 1-Month T-Bills, Canadian Bonds (FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index), Global Bonds (Citi World Government Bond Index Canada 1-5 Years) Indexes are not available for direct investment Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group Russell data copyright Russell Investment Group 1995-2017, all rights reserved Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved Citigroup bond indexes copyright 2017 by Citigroup 4
Currency March 31, 2017 CHANGE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES (%) $CAD/FX Currency Q1 2017 One Year Three Years $ US Dollars 088% -266% -1707% Euro -048% 396% 713% Pounds -041% 1193% 1056% Yen -396% -356% -1035% IMPACT OF CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS Annual Returns in CAD and Local Currency Three-Year Annualized Returns in CAD and Local Currency 2171 1688 1804 1853 1808 1683 1553 CAD Local Currency 974 735 771 752 752 US Stocks Int'l Stocks Emerging Markets US Stocks Int'l Stocks Emerging Markets Data is in Canadian dollars The market for the United States, International Developed Markets, and Emerging Markets is defined as: Russell 3000 Index, MSCI EAFE Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index, respectively The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group Russell data copyright Russell Investment Group 1995-2017, all rights reserved MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved Indexes are not available for direct investment Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results FX Rates courtesy of Federal Reserve of New York 5
MSCI Country Returns in Canadian Dollars and Local Currency March 31, 2017 FIRST QUARTER 2017 RETURNS Return in CAD Return in Local Currency Impact of Currency 1 India 1819% 1371% 448% 2 Poland 1780% 1243% 537% 32 United States 532% 590% -058% 40 Canada 237% 237% 000% 45 Greece -085% -167% 083% 46 Russia -497% -1180% 683% ONE YEAR RETURNS IN CAD AND LOCAL CURRENCY Return in CAD Return in Local Currency Impact of Currency 1 Brazil 4882% 2931% 1952% 2 Russia 3414% 963% 2451% 11 United States 2183% 1816% 367% 13 Canada 1960% 1960% 000% 45 Egypt -841% 8057% -8897% 46 Turkey -1389% 801% -2190% MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved Indexes are not available for direct investment Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results 6
MSCI Country Returns Country Rankings Ten-Year Annualized Returns as of March 31, 2017 Thailand Indonesia Philippines Peru Hong Kong United States Denmark Taiwan China India Pakistan Colombia New Zealand Switzerland Korea Australia Argentina Singapore Malaysia South Africa Netherlands Sweden Germany Canada Chile Sri Lanka Israel Mexico Brazil Japan United Kingdom France Morocco Belgium Finland Turkey Egypt Spain Norway Hungary Czech Republic Poland Russia Italy Jordan Portugal Ireland Austria Greece -300-250 -200-150 -100-50 00 50 100 150 Percent Return Data in Canadian dollars gross of fees MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved Indexes are not available for direct investment Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results 7
Bond Returns March 31, 2017 Index Q1 2017 Return (%) One Year Three Years Annualized Canadian 1-Month T-Bills 013% 048% 062% FTSE TMX Canada Short-Term Bond Index 150% 211% 237% FTSE TMX Canada Mid-Term Bond Index 147% 155% 457% FTSE TMX Canada Long-Term Bond Index 104% 088% 630% FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index 124% 151% 409% Citi World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years 021% 042% 167% (hedged to CAD) CAN Treasury Yield Curve 3% 12/31/2015 6/30/2016 12/30/2016 2% 1% 0% 3M 6M 1YR 2YR 3YR 5YR 10YR 30YR Data is in Canadian dollars Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved Data provided by Citibank Treasury yield data provided by Bank Of Canada; copyright 1995-2017, Bank of Canada 8
Growth of Wealth One Year as of March 31, 2017 $130 $120 $110 Balanced Portfolio T-Bills Canadian Bonds International Stocks Emerging Markets Stocks US Stocks Global Real Estate Canadian Stocks $121 $120 $119 $114 $110 $100 $103 $102 $100 $090 $080 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 In Canadian dollars T-Bills is Canadian 1-Month T-Bills, Canadian Bonds is FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index, International Stocks is MSCI EAFE Index (net div), Emerging Markets Stocks is MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross div) from 01/1988 to 12/1998 and MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div) from 01/1999, US Stocks is S&P 500 Index, Global Real Estate is S&P Global REIT Index (gross div) from 07/1989 to 12/2000 and S&P Global REIT (net div) from 01/2001 and Canadian Stocks is S&P/TSX Composite Index Balanced Portfolio is 10% T-Bills, 30% Canadian Bonds, 20% Canadian Stocks, 15% US Stocks, 15% International Stocks, 5% Emerging Markets Stocks and 5% Global Real Estate Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor s Index Services Group S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX Indexes are not available for direct investment Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results 9
Growth of Wealth Three Years as of March 31, 2017 $170 $160 $150 $140 Balanced Portfolio T-Bills Canadian Bonds International Stocks Emerging Markets Stocks US Stocks Global Real Estate Canadian Stocks $162 $146 $130 $120 $110 $100 $123 $122 $120 $119 $113 $102 $090 $080 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 In Canadian dollars T-Bills is Canadian 1-Month T-Bills, Canadian Bonds is FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index, International Stocks is MSCI EAFE Index (net div), Emerging Markets Stocks is MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross div) from 01/1988 to 12/1998 and MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div) from 01/1999, US Stocks is S&P 500 Index, Global Real Estate is S&P Global REIT Index (gross div) from 07/1989 to 12/2000 and S&P Global REIT (net div) from 01/2001 and Canadian Stocks is S&P/TSX Composite Index Balanced Portfolio is 10% T-Bills, 30% Canadian Bonds, 20% Canadian Stocks, 15% US Stocks, 15% International Stocks, 5% Emerging Markets Stocks and 5% Global Real Estate Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor s Index Services Group S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX Indexes are not available for direct investment Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results 10
Growth of Wealth Five Years as of March 31, 2017 $270 $250 $230 Balanced Portfolio T-Bills Canadian Bonds International Stocks Emerging Markets Stocks US Stocks Global Real Estate Canadian Stocks $249 $210 $190 $170 $150 $130 $110 $090 $195 $177 $151 $146 $127 $119 $104 $070 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 In Canadian dollars T-Bills is Canadian 1-Month T-Bills, Canadian Bonds is FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index, International Stocks is MSCI EAFE Index (net div), Emerging Markets Stocks is MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross div) from 01/1988 to 12/1998 and MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div) from 01/1999, US Stocks is S&P 500 Index, Global Real Estate is S&P Global REIT Index (gross div) from 07/1989 to 12/2000 and S&P Global REIT (net div) from 01/2001 and Canadian Stocks is S&P/TSX Composite Index Balanced Portfolio is 10% T-Bills, 30% Canadian Bonds, 20% Canadian Stocks, 15% US Stocks, 15% International Stocks, 5% Emerging Markets Stocks and 5% Global Real Estate Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor s Index Services Group S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX Indexes are not available for direct investment Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results 11
Growth of Wealth Ten Years as of March 31, 2017 $270 $220 Balanced Portfolio T-Bills Canadian Bonds International Stocks Emerging Markets Stocks US Stocks Global Real Estate Canadian Stocks $238 $170 $120 $162 $160 $158 $150 $136 $128 $112 $070 $020 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 In Canadian dollars T-Bills is Canadian 1-Month T-Bills, Canadian Bonds is FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index, International Stocks is MSCI EAFE Index (net div), Emerging Markets Stocks is MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross div) from 01/1988 to 12/1998 and MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div) from 01/1999, US Stocks is S&P 500 Index, Global Real Estate is S&P Global REIT Index (gross div) from 07/1989 to 12/2000 and S&P Global REIT (net div) from 01/2001 and Canadian Stocks is S&P/TSX Composite Index Balanced Portfolio is 10% T-Bills, 30% Canadian Bonds, 20% Canadian Stocks, 15% US Stocks, 15% International Stocks, 5% Emerging Markets Stocks and 5% Global Real Estate Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor s Index Services Group S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX Indexes are not available for direct investment Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results 12
Growth of Wealth Twenty Years as of March 31, 2017 $600 $500 Balanced Portfolio T-Bills Canadian Bonds International Stocks Emerging Markets Stocks US Stocks Global Real Estate Canadian Stocks $400 $300 $455 $436 $424 $344 $326 $315 $237 $200 $159 $100 $000 Mar-97 Mar-99 Mar-01 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-17 In Canadian dollars T-Bills is Canadian 1-Month T-Bills, Canadian Bonds is FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index, International Stocks is MSCI EAFE Index (net div), Emerging Markets Stocks is MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross div) from 01/1988 to 12/1998 and MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div) from 01/1999, US Stocks is S&P 500 Index, Global Real Estate is S&P Global REIT Index (gross div) from 07/1989 to 12/2000 and S&P Global REIT (net div) from 01/2001 and Canadian Stocks is S&P/TSX Composite Index Balanced Portfolio is 10% T-Bills, 30% Canadian Bonds, 20% Canadian Stocks, 15% US Stocks, 15% International Stocks, 5% Emerging Markets Stocks and 5% Global Real Estate Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor s Index Services Group S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX Indexes are not available for direct investment Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results 13