THANH CONG SECURITIES COMPANY Floor 3&5, Centec Tower, 72-74 Nguyen Thi Minh Khai, Dis.3, HCMC Phone : + 84 (08) 3 827 0527 Website: www.tcsc.vn MONTHLY REPORT MARCH 2012 Research Department research@tcsc.vn 1. Overview macroeconomic 2. Financial market 3. Stock market 4. Stock market in April 2012
OVERVIEW VIETNAM S MACROECONOMIC Vietnam March CPI ups only 0.16%: GSO The country s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March rose only 0.16 percent against the previous month, despite petrol price increasing by 10 percent, the General Statistics Office (GSO) said. The figure, however, reflected a year-on-year increase of 15.95 percent. Of the 11 goods categories, only post and telecommunications services continued to fall, while others increased by between 0.07-2.31 percent. The highest growth during the month was seen in the group of housing and construction materials while the lowest increase was recorded by the batch of drinks and cigarette. Food prices this month dropped by 1.21 percent from the previous month, mainly because of continuous fall in the price of rice in the Mekong Delta and unfavourable export price. Prices of foodstuff were down 1.25 percent due to decreasing demands and plentiful supply. Vietnam runs $251mlntrade deficit in Q1/2012 Vietnam was estimated to run a trade deficit of $250.9 million in the first quarter of 2012, equaling to 1.02% of the country s export revenue in the period, the General Statistics Office and the Ministry of Industry and Trade said. In details, the country reaped $24.5 billion from exports in Jan-March, making a year-on- year rise of 23.6% (up $4.7 billion) while it spent $24.77 billion to import goods and services, up
6.9%. In which, the foreign direct investment sector contributed $13.8 billion export value (crude oil excluded) in the period, rising 48.8% on year. The domestic sector contributed $9 billion export value, almost unchanged from 2011. In March alone, Vietnam exported $9.15 billion worth of goods, up 10.24% on month. Excluding crude oil, the country s export turnover in the month was estimated at $5.15 billion. Meanwhile, the country imported $9.3 billion worth of goods, up 8.1% on month, resulting in a trade deficit of $150 million. Vietnam s export staples in the period were garment and textile ($3.23 billion, up 15.4% on year), seafood ($1.26 billion, up 11.7% on year), coffee ($1.06 billion (down 11.8% on year). The country mainly imported petroleum products ($2.2 billion, down 19.7% on year), clothes ($1.3 billion, down 11.1%), plastics ($1.09 billion, up 0.1%), iron and steel ($1.45 billion, up 7.7%), electronic products, computers and spare-parts ($2.66 bilion, up 103.4%). In Q1/2011, Vietnam ran a trade deficit of $3.03 billion. Vietnam Q1 FDI dips 0.8 pct y/y to $2.52 bln Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Vietnam in the first three months of 2012 fell 0.8 percent from a year ago to $2.52 billion, a government report said on Monday. New FDI pledges in the period between Jan. 1 and March 20 totalled $2.26 billion, down 22.8 percent from the same period last year, the Planning and Investment Ministry said in its monthly report. Pledges are measured by the grant of licences for future investments. Earlier on Monday a state-run newspaper cited the ministry's data as showing FDI inflows rose to $1.52 billion in
March, up 52 percent from $1 billion in February, led by a real estate project. A project to invest $1.2 billion in building Tokyu Binh Duong residential area in the southern province of Binh Duong has brought the real estate sector to the top position for attracting FDI so far this year, the ministry said. GDP growth in Q1 gains 4pct Vietnam s GDP in the first quarter (Q1) of this year reached 4 percent compared to the same period last year, according to the General Statistics Office. The growth of the industry was 3 percent, while last year the figure was 13 percent. The low increase is attributed to the fact that production, domestic consumption and exports are meeting many difficulties. Besides, GDP in the agro-forestry-fishery sector surged by 2.8 percent, while the figure in Q1 in 2011 was 3.65 percent. GDP of industry and construction was up 2.9 percent and service was up 5.3 percent. At the same time, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 4.1 percent, the lowest level over recent years. The figure was 9.3 percent in 2011 s Q1. The country s GDP in the first three months of 2011 increased 5.57 percent against the same period of 2010.
FINANCIAL MARKET IN MAR 2012 GOVERNMENT BONDS Date Issuer Term Offering value (VND bn.) Winning value (VND bn.) Successful ratio Bidding rate (%) Successful rate (%) No. participants 01/03/2012 Treasury 2 2,000 1,975 99% 10.9-12.0 11.2 8 01/03/2012 Treasury 3 2,000 1,970 99% 10.8-12.3 10.97 11 01/03/2012 Treasury 5 2,000 2,000 100% 10.7-12.5 11.2 10 01/03/2012 Treasury 10 1,000 950 95% 10.49-11.10 10.7 2 02/03/2012 VBSP 2 520 500 96% 11.88-11.93 11.93 1 02/03/2012 VBSP 3 1,300 1,100 85% 11.9-12.4 12.2 4 02/03/2012 VBSP 5 1,500 100 7% 12.35-12.5 12.35 1 08/03/2012 Treasury 2 1,000 960 96% 10.14-12.0 11 7 08/03/2012 Treasury 3 2,000 1,000 50% 10.14-12.30 10.94 7 08/03/2012 Treasury 5 2,000 1,160 58% 10.84-12.50 11.1 6 09/03/2012 VBSP 2 420-0% 09/03/2012 VBSP 3 900 300 33% 12.06-13.00 12.06 2 09/03/2012 VBSP 5 300-0% 12.95-13.15 1 19/03/2012 Treasury 2 1,000 100 10% 10.95-12.0 11% 7 19/03/2012 Treasury 3 2,000-0% 10.95-12.3 % 9 19/03/2012 Treasury 5 1,000 290 29% 10.75-12.5 11% 8 20/03/2012 VBSP 2 320-0% 12.15-12.21 1 20/03/2012 VBSP 3 700 150 21% 11.98-13.0 12.05 3 20/03/2012 VBSP 5 300-0% 12.95-13.15 1 22/03/2012 Treasury 2 1,000 610 61% 11.0-12.0 11.2 5 22/03/2012 Treasury 3 1,000 250 25% 11.1-12.3 11.15 5 22/03/2012 Treasury 5 1,000 200 20% 11.2-12.5 11.25 3 In March 2012, Ha Noi trading exchange held seven auctions of bonds issued by Treasury and Vietnam Bank for Social Polices with the total issuing value of VND 25,260 bn. for 2-year, 3-year bonds, 5-year and 10-year bonds. According to the results announced in March 2012, as for 2-year bonds, VND 4,145 billion worth of bonds were sold, with the interest rate 11-11.9% p.a; as for 3-year, VND 4,770 billion worth of bonds were sold with the interest rate of 10.94-12.06%/năm p.a; as for 5-year and 10- year bond VND 3,750 billion and VND 950 billion worth of bonds sold respectively.
Successful rate in March 2012 is 53.9%, it s lower than February s successful rate. One of the reseasons is the bond tenders of the State Treasury are suffering competitions by the volume of bills of exchange issued by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) with higher interest rate for 2-year tenor. For example, bills of exchange for terms of 28-days, 91 days and 182 days have the interest rates of 11.5 percent, 12 percent and 12.5 percent per annum. Therefore, only when the government bonds have reasonable interest rates, banks will purchase these bonds. Date Issuer Term (days) Offering value (VND bn.) Winning value (VND bn.) Successful ratio Successful rate (%) 15/03/2012 SBV 28 1,000 1,000 100% 11.5 15/03/2012 SBV 91 1,000 388 39% 12 15/03/2012 SBV 182 1,000 376 38% 12.5 16/03/2012 SBV 28 2,000 843 42% 11.5 16/03/2012 SBV 91 2,000 1,068 53% 12 16/03/2012 SBV 182 2,000 1,364 68% 12.5 19/03/2012 SBV 28 1,000 213 21% 11.5 19/03/2012 SBV 91 1,000 146 15% 12 19/03/2012 SBV 182 1,000 358 36% 12.5 20/03/2012 SBV 28 1,000 1,000 100% 11.5 20/03/2012 SBV 91 1,000 330 33% 12 20/03/2012 SBV 182 1,000 471 47% 12.5 21/03/2012 SBV 28 2,000 1,030 52% 11.5 21/03/2012 SBV 91 1,000 392 39% 12 21/03/2012 SBV 182 1,000 1,000 100% 12.5 22/03/2012 SBV 28 2,000 1,462 73% 11.5 22/03/2012 SBV 91 1,000 97 10% 12 22/03/2012 SBV 182 2,000 875 44% 12.5 23/03/2012 SBV 28 2,000 947 47% 11.5 23/03/2012 SBV 91 1,000 777 78% 12 23/03/2012 SBV 182 2,000 927 46% 12.5
INTERBANK EXCHANGE RATE In March 2012, the central bank continued to keep the interbank VND/USD exchange rate at 20,828 dong. On March 20 th, the Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has issued the Circular No. 07/2012/TT-NHNN on foreign currency position of credit institutions and foreign bank branches. The circular mentioned that the total foreign currency position limit is calculated by the ratio of the total positive or negative foreign currency position over own capital of credit institutions; the own capital to calculate the limit of the total foreign currency position of credit institutions is the own capital of the month preceding the reporting period; the total positive foreign currency position of credit institutions should not exceed 20% of the own capital of credit institutions; and the total negative foreign currency position at the end of working day of credit institutions should not exceed 20% of the own capital of credit institutions. Foreign bank branches in Vietnam with charter capital of below US$25 million each are allowed to apply the total foreign currency position limit as follows: the total positive foreign currency position converted into USD at the end of working day should not exceed US$5 million; and the total negative foreign currency position converted into USD at the end of working day should not exceed US$5 million. That circular will limit U.S dollar detention at credit institutions. Although that circular will be effective since May 2 nd 2012, USD price in commercial banks and free-market have increased 20-30 VND/USD. However, USD price just were fluctual in few days, at the end of March the USD price has been stable.
GOLD MARKET Source: SJS At the middle of March 2012, global gold prices had declined sharply but then turned back. During the ended week of March, global spot gold price fluctuated, rising to the highest level of 1,690 U.S. dollars per ounce on Tuesday, but then falling to the lowest level of 1,654 U.S dollars per ounce on Thursday. That influenced domestic gold prices, which were traded at 44.57 million VND per tael on Tuesday, and 43.82 million VND/ tael on Thursday. When prices are down, many people take advantage of opportunities to buy gold.
STOCK MARKET IN MARCH 2012 In March 2012, after VN Index and HNX Index went through 455 points and 75 points level, both of them rebounded. After six consecutive decreasing trading days, indeses increased. At the end of March, VN Index and HNX Index continued rebound once again. We can see that currently the stock markets have not really recovered, investors should be cautious before deciding to join markets, and quick to get profit before the market fell down. At the end of March 2012, VN Index jumped 17.39 points and went through the level of 440 points when it closed at 451.03 points. Meanwhile, HNX Index rose 3.52 points compared to January 31 st 2012, closed at 72.2 points. There are increasing of 4.1% and 5.1% in Ho Chi Minh stock exchange and Ha Noi stock exchange respectively. The liquidation in both bourses has been increased sharply in March 2012. The average trading value in February 2012 on Ho Chi Minh stock exchange and Ha Noi stock
exchange were VND 1,350 bn. and VND 910 bn. respectively, increased by 59% and 100% compared to last month. Foreigner investors continued net buying in both bourses with total buying value was VND 6,500 bn, increasing by 77% and total selling value was VND 5,300 bn., increasing by 166% compared to Feb 2012, total net buyng value was VND 1,180 bn. Foreigners top buying shares in March 2012 were STB, VCB and MBB with total net buying value were VND 1,100 bn. MARKET ANALYSIS IN APRIL 2012 In March 2012, the VN Index had twice successfully broke through the resistance level at 450 points and went closely 460 points, but there were rebound whenever VN Index was near level of 460 points. Investors should be cautious when participating in the market when the market trend remains unclear.
REFERENCES
Authors Trang Nguyen Thu trang.nt@tcsc.vn
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