US Economic Indicators: Employment

US Economic Indicators: Employment February, 18 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-97-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Employment & Labor Force 1 Household & Payroll Employment -3 Full-Time vs Part-Time 4 Part-Time Employment 5 Participation Rates 6 Payroll Employment Diffusion Indexes 7 Payroll Employment Adjustments 8-9 Hours Worked 1 Misc. 11-13 February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.

14 1 6 - -6-1 -14 Figure 1. Employment & Labor Force EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS (monthly change, thousands, sa) Labor Force (518) 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 14 1 6 - -6-1 -14 16 6 Household Employment (49) 16 6-4 -4-14 6 4-18 14 1 6 - -6-1 7 5 3 1-1 -3 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 Payroll Employment () 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 Household Measure Comparable to Payroll Measure (-155) 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 New Hires Minus Separations (86) Nov -14 6 4-18 14 1 6 - -6-1 7 5 3 1-1 -3 Page 1 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.

3 8 6 4 18 16 Figure. LABOR FORCE & WORKING-AGE POPULATION (millions, sa, ratio scale) Civilian Noninstitutional Population (56.8) Labor Force (161.1) Household & Payroll Employment Not in Labor Force (95.7) 3 8 6 4 18 16 14 14 1 1 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 48 5 5 54 56 58 6 6 64 66 68 7 7 74 76 78 8 8 84 86 88 9 9 94 96 98 4 6 8 1 1 14 16 18 4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 165 16 Figure 3. LABOR FORCE & EMPLOYMENT MEASURES (millions, sa) 165 16 155 155 15 15 145 145 14 14 135 135 13 15 1 115 11 15 1 95 9 Labor Force Household Employment Household Measure Compatible with Payroll Measure Payroll Employment BLS Private Payrolls ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 13 15 1 115 11 15 1 95 9 Page / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.

98 Figure 4. Household & Payroll Employment PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (as a percent of Household Employment) 98 97 97 96 96 95 95 94 94 93 95 96 97 98 99 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 93 7 68 Figure 5. LABOR FORCE & HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT (percent of civilian noninstitutional working-age population) 7 68 66 66 64 6 64 6 6 58 56 Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate* Employment-to-Population Rate** 6 58 56 54 6 6 64 66 68 7 7 74 76 78 8 8 84 86 88 9 9 94 96 98 4 6 8 1 1 14 16 18 54 * Labor force divided by working-age population. ** Household employment divided by working-age population. Page 3 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.

Full-Time vs Part-Time 18 16 Figure 6. HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT* (millions, sa) 18 16 14 14 1 1 1 118 Full-Time 1 118 116 116 114 114 11 11 11 9 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 11 9 8 7 6 Part-Time 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3.5. 19.5 19. 18.5 18. 17.5 17. 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Part-Time / Total.5. 19.5 19. 18.5 18. 17.5 17. 16.5 16. 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 * Total, full-time, and part-time employment are separately seasonally adjusted. 16.5 16. Page 4 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.

Part-Time Employment 3 Figure 7. PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT (millions) 3 Part-Time Employment* Part-Time Employment For Economic Reasons* Temporary Help Services** 1 1 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 * From Household Survey. ** From Establishment Survey. 36 34 3 3 8 6 4 Figure 8. PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT FOR ECONOMIC REASONS (percent of total part-time employment) 36 34 3 3 8 6 4 18 16 14 1 1 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 18 16 14 1 1 Page 5 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.

68 Figure 9. CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE* (percent) Participation Rates 68 66 66 64 6 Total (6.7) 64 6 6 6 58 48 5 5 54 56 58 6 6 64 66 68 7 7 74 76 78 8 8 84 86 88 9 9 94 96 98 4 6 8 1 1 14 16 18 4 58 * Labor force as percent of working-age population. 44 Figure 1. CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE NON-PARTICIPATION RATE* (not in the labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional working-age population) 44 4 4 4 4 38 38 36 36 34 34 3 48 5 5 54 56 58 6 6 64 66 68 7 7 74 76 78 8 8 84 86 88 9 9 94 96 98 4 6 8 1 1 14 16 18 4 3 * Working-age population data are not seasonally adjusted. Page 6 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.

8 7 Figure 11. Payroll Employment Diffusion Indexes PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT DIFFUSION INDEX (% of industries reporting higher payrolls) 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 Private Payrolls One-Month Span (57.9) Three-Month Span (68.) 4 3 1 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1 8 7 Figure 1. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT DIFFUSION INDEX (% of industries reporting higher payrolls) 8 7 6 5 6 5 4 4 3 1 Manufacturing Payrolls One-Month Span Three-Month Span 3 1 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 7 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.

35 5 15 Figure 13. Payroll Employment Adjustments PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT: REVISIONS (monthly change, thousands) Most Recent Less First-Reported 35 5 15 5-5 Dec 5-5 -15-15 -5-5 -35 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. -35 Figure 14. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT: REVISIONS (1-month sum, millions) 1 Most Recent Less First-Reported 1 Dec -1-1 - - -3 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. -3 Page 8 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.

3 Figure 15. Payroll Employment Adjustments PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT: BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT (thousands, nsa) 3 1 1-1 -1 - - -3-3 -4-4 -5 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18-5 1 1 Figure 16. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT: BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT (1-month sum, thousands) 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Page 9 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.

Hours Worked 45 44 Figure 17. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS 45 44 43 43 4 Manufacturing 4 41 41 4 4 39 39 38 38 37 36 Total Private: Production & Nonsupervisory Employees Total Private Industries 37 36 35 35 34 34 33 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 33 3 13 Figure 18. INDEX OF AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS (=1) 13 1 11 Total Private: Production & Nonsupervisory Employees Total Private Industries Manufacturing 1 11 1 1 9 9 8 8 7 95 96 97 98 99 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 7 Page 1 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.

Figure 19. Misc. BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT vs. ADP SMALL BUSINESS PAYROLLS (millions) 1 1-1 1-Month Sum in Birth/ Death Adjustment 1-Month Change in ADP Small Business Payrolls -1-4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. - 6 4 Figure. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT & LABOR FORCE (yearly change, millions) 6 4 - - -4-6 Civilian Labor Force Payroll Employment -4-6 -8 5 5 54 56 58 6 6 64 66 68 7 7 74 76 78 8 8 84 86 88 9 9 94 96 98 4 6 8 1 1 14 16 18 4-8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 11 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.

4 Figure 1. LABOR FORCE GROWTH (yearly change, millions) Misc. 4 3 3 1 1-1 -1-5 5 54 56 58 6 6 64 66 68 7 7 74 76 78 8 8 84 86 88 9 9 94 96 98 4 6 8 1 1 14 16 18 4 - Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 6 4 Figure. HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT (yearly change, millions) 6 4 - - -4-4 -6-6 -8 56 58 6 6 64 66 68 7 7 74 76 78 8 8 84 86 88 9 9 94 96 98 4 6 8 1 1 14 16 18 4-8 Page 1 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.

7 5 Figure 3. Misc. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT MEASURES: NONFARM PRIVATE PAYROLLS (monthly change, thousands, sa) 7 5 3 1 3 1-1 -1-3 -5 ADP (33.) -3-5 -7-7 -9 6 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT MEASURES: NONFARM PRIVATE PAYROLLS (monthly change, thousands, sa) -9 6 4 - - -4-6 BLS (196.) -4-6 -8-8 -1 6 5 4 3 1-1 - -3-4 -5-6 -7-8 -9 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 NEW HIRES & SEPARATIONS (thousands, sa) 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and ADP. Total Hires Minus Separations (86.) Nov -1 6 5 4 3 1-1 - -3-4 -5-6 -7-8 -9 Page 13 / February, 18 / US Economic Indicators: Employment www.

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