Corporate Presentation November, 2016
Important Notice Forward Looking Information No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to, and no responsibility is or will be accepted by National Bank of Greece (the Group) as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation and nothing in this presentation shall be deemed to constitute such a representation or warranty. Although the statements of fact and certain industry, market and competitive data in this presentation have been obtained from and are based upon sources that are believed to be reliable, their accuracy is not guaranteed and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates included in this presentation are subject to change without notice. The Group is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. In addition, certain of these data come from the Group s own internal research and estimates based on knowledge and experience of management in the market in which it operates. Such research and estimates and their underlying methodology have not been verified by any independent source for accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on them. Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. Such forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties include, among other factors, changing economic, financial, business or other market conditions. As a result, you are cautioned not to place any reliance on such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast and no representation is made that any of these statement or forecasts will come to pass. Persons receiving this presentation should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are advised to make their own independent analysis and determination with respect to the forecast periods, which reflect the Group s view only as of the date hereof. 1 Legal
Table of Contents 1 Overview 2 Financial Highlights 3 Liquidity 4 Profitability 5 Asset quality 6 Capital 7 Macro 8 Appendix
Overview 1
Comprehensive strategy to tap the Greek recovery potential Deeply r Strong brand recognition Utilize high coverage and capital levels to work through NPLs Deploy liquidity to support the recovery of the Greek economy Deeply rooted customer Deeply r relationships Deliver RoTE in excess of cost of capital with low execution risk 4 Overview
Strong brand recognition and deeply rooted customer relationships Reputational excellence in Greece: premium brand of choice Strategically positioned with high customer penetration Bank of reference in Greece for over 170 years Best Reputation (Survey) (1) Most Trustworthy (Survey) (1) 34% 33% 28% 27% 22% 23% 20% 17% NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Deeply rooted customer relationships High customer penetration 6mn retail customers c.8,500 corporate clients (4) 1,456 ATMs 69.030 POS 3,9 m debit cards 524 (3) branches providing full and efficient geographic coverage 45 Thessaloniki 179 Athens Next 20 Big Cities: 76 Prefectural capitals: 74 Rest of Greece: 150 Samos Total deposits/ branch 28.5% Core deposit market share (9M16) (2) 68.6m 54.2m 45.0m 52.8m 27.1% 19.6% 15.4% NBG Peer 1 Peer 3 Peer 2 Source: Company disclosure Notes: (1) Based on C.A.P.I. tracking study during the period April-June 2015 (2) Core deposits include current, sight and savings. Greek deposit market as per the BoG definition includes deposits of the general government. (3) Includes 1 private banking unit (4) Not including SBLs Limited participation in M&A activity during Greek banking sector consolidation has safeguarded NBG s identity, client relationships and has enhanced service experience No brand contamination Culture preservation and consistency in service with focus on innovation and improvements Well positioned to manage loan performance and troubled assets Knowledge of customer base (KYC) Consistent, conservative underwriting standards Well positioned to attract deposit inflows 5 Overview
Technology and innovation provide new value added services Modern and sophisticated bank offering premium cashless and digital services Strategic emphasis on developing and upgrading the i-bank platform has resulted in significant transaction growth Following imposition of capital controls NBG issued c.1.2m debit cards and opened 300,000 e-banking accounts. Debit card transaction volumes increased 6x yoy Strong digital channels Old but not old fashioned Internet users Electronic transactions 1,123K 1,285K 14.7m 17.6m 21.0m 28.8bn 870K 25.0bn 25.9bn 2014 2015 9M16 Selected digital and premium initiatives 2014 2015 9M16 i-bank Store Premium Branches Extensive e-banking platform with ancillary value adding services (e.g. money transfers, share trading, payment of dues to tax authorities and other companies and organizations) Highly innovative i-bank store platform targeting young age groups Premium banking provides a personalized service to the affluent segment Upgrading digital infrastructure a key priority First full banking relationship loyalty program: Number of customers at 450K (+50%) in June 2016 vs 300K in the end of 2015 Encourages stronger banking relationship by rewarding more than 30 products, services and transactions Online point attribution to customers, real time view of the point balance Wide network of participating merchants including super markets, gas stations, department stores, telecommunications, hi tech stores, as well as selected NBG products Source: NBG 6 Overview
NBG aims to capitalize on strong client relationships and superior liquidity position, to increase exposure in business lending, benefitting NIM Leader in mortgages Levering up to increase exposure in business lending NBG 26.3% #1 NBG 19.8% #3 Leader in low cost savings deposits Leader in P&C and life insurance #1 NBG 19.0% #1 NBG 35.6% Market shares: Life: 26% Non-Life: 11% 7 Overview
Dedicated and independent internal units for retail collections and corporate NPL management Corporate NPL Management Special Assets Unit ( SAU ) is a centralised unit with end-to-end responsibility for the management of corporate NPLs with: Vertically integrated management to ensure single point accountability and efficient decision making Dedicated SAU RMs and separate Credit Committees Clear prioritisation strategy based on ageing, size, collateralisation levels and legal status Internally developed tools to prioritise alternative strategies and assess debtors viability Short-term and longer-term target setting and RM productivity monitored monthly Certain corporate exposures are managed by the business unit Retail Collections Unit Retail Collections Unit ( RCU ) is an independent unit focused on management of retail NPLs and collections Centralised unit with end-to-end responsibility Strategy differentiated by customer segmentation: collecting in early buckets, restructuring subsequently, legal actions according to selection criteria, and settlements for >360dpd New restructuring products designed to ensure solution sustainability based on PTI and on client s disposable income after subtracting reasonable living expenses Tight performance monitoring of internal collection center and external agents and lawyers through comprehensive KPIs Champion/challenger tactics frequently employed to test new segment strategies based on cohort attributes (profession, income, dpd, collateral) Overview of Portfolio (30.09.2016) Corporate Balance ( bn) of which (denounced) #Clients Large Corporates 1.7 0.5 400 35 (1) SMEs 2.6 1.4 4,040 96 (2) SBL(Legal Entities) 1.4 0.8 12,671 96 Legal, Control & Operational 55 Total 5.7 2.7 17,111 282 Retail Balance ( bn) Treatment Clients ( 000) FTE Mortgages 7.0 Collections 107 225 Consumer 3.3 Restructuring 49 159 Micro-SBL 1.2 Legal/ 223 338 Settlements Total 11.6 379 721 Branches (execution) 867 Various support functions 125 c. 2,000 FTEs deployed in collections and NPL management FTEs Notes: all NBG figures refer to domestic Greek business (1) SME: small & medium enterprises (2) SBL: small business loans 8 Overview
Assets liabilities mix 9M16: low ELA exposure, deposit funded loanbook Asset mix ( b) Liability mix ( b) Interbank placements, 2.9 81.7 Cash, 2.0 Interbank liabilities, 5.2 81.7 Securities, 13.8 ECB, 7.5 ELA, 5.2 EFSF/ESM bonds, 9.3 Savings, 17.7 Domestic net loans, 31.9 Current & Sight, 6.4 Time & Other, 11.9 Domestic deposits 36.0 SEE & Other net loans, 6.0 DTA, 5.1 Other, 10.8 SEE & Other deposits, 6.6 Other Liabilities, 10.1 Total equity and minorities, 9.8 Debt securities, 1.5 Assets Liabilities 9 Overview
NBG major shareholders: International institutional accounts at 48%, HFSF at 40% Other 0.2% HFSF 40.4% Int'l Institutionals 47.5% Domestic legal entities 1.8% Domestic institutionals 1.7% Domestic retail 8.4% Domestic investors: 12.0% 10 Overview
Financial Highlights 2
9M16 Group PAT from continuing operations in the black at 26m P&L Highlights Group P&L Group 9M16 PAT from continuing operations reaches 26m vs losses of 1.7b in 9M15. This result reflects improving trends in the domestic as well as the SEE businesses 9M16 Group core income reaches 1.67b, up by 5% yoy, driven by domestic funding cost improvements deriving from the elimination of Pillar 2 and 3 exposure, reduction of ELA funding and the repricing of time deposits; Q3.16 Group core income stood at 563m (flat qoq) reflecting higher NII (+1% qoq) and fees (+10% qoq) as well as lower income from insurance (- 12m qoq, or -50% qoq) due to the hit from lower interest rates on reserves 9M16 Group OpEx, down by 2% yoy, was driven by personnel (-1% yoy) and G&A (-5% yoy); imminent VRS will accelerate cost containment; Q3 domestic costs at 252m, flat qoq Q3 Group credit risk charges stood at 191bps, coming in 25bps lower qoq. Domestic and Group CoR at 198bps and 189bps respectively in 9M16 SEE business PAT contribution reaches 79m in 9M16, up by 92% yoy m 9M16 9M15 yoy 3Q16 2Q16 qoq NII 1 446 1 431 +1% 485 482 +1% Fees & Commissions 1 222 215 +3% 73 76-4% Pillar-2 costs (51) (143) -64% (6) (15) -61% Insurance income 52 83-37% 12 23-50% Trading & other income (61) (208) -71% (13) (43) -70% Income 1 608 1 379 +17% 551 524 +5% Operating Expenses (947) (966) -2% (318) (319) 0% Core PPI 723 620 +17% 245 247-1% PPI 662 412 +61% 232 205 +14% Provisions (547) (2 936) -81% (182) (208) -12% Operating Profit 114 (2 524) n/m 51 (3) n/m Other impairments (66) (223) -71% (20) (12) -66% PBT 48 (2 746) n/m 31 (15) n/m Taxes (23) 1 053 n/m (8) (9) -12% PAT (cont. ops) 26 (1 694) n/m 23 (23) n/m PAT (discount. ops) (2,957) (444) >100% - (3.028) n/m Minorities (28) (27) +3% (7) (10) -31% Other one-offs - (9) -100% - - n/m Attributable PAT 2 (2,959) (2 174) +36% 16 (3.062) n/m 1. Excludes Pillar-2 costs 2. Group attributable income includes a loss of 3,095m which reflects the recycling of losses recognized in other comprehensive income related to Finansbank. This loss has already been recognized in the Group s equity and CET1 capital in prior periods, therefore has no impact on the Group s equity and CET1 capital in Q2.16 12 Highlights
Favorable NPE reduction trend is sustained, liquidity profile improves further Liquidity, Asset Quality & Capital Highlights Key Ratios - Group Further ELA reduction to just 4.5b currently ELA has been slashed by an impressive 13b since the imposition of capital controls, reaching 4.5b in November Full P&L impact of Pillar II and III exposure elimination (July 2016) on profitability to apply from 4Q16 onwards; total annualized fee saving of 200m vs FY.15 fee charge L:D ratio drops further to 89% in Greece reflecting favorable deposit trends in Q3 (+ 0.3b) as well as deleveraging of the balance sheet Domestic NPE stock reduction continues unabated in Q3, - 1.0b qoq The pace of NPE reduction continues (- 1.0bn qoq), resulting in an impressive ytd reduction of 1.9b, reflecting favorable curing trends and write offs FNPEs less than 30dpd at 3.3b, are a large potential pool for future curing 90dpd retail formation remained negative for yet another quarter (- 92m) reflecting improving gross formation as the pace of restructurings slowed in Q3 On the corporate side, formation reached 280m, reflecting a handful of large corporate exposure re-defaults Domestic credit charges CoR at 198bps in 9M16; NPE and NPL coverage at an industry leading 57% and 75% respectively CET 1 pro forma 1 ratio at 16.9% CET1 ratio on a CRD IV FL basis at 16.3% 1, excluding CoCos Group RWAs at 40.2b 1 of which 34.4b in Greece (phased in) Capital adequacy to be enhanced materially by implementation of the RP Liquidity 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 L/D ratio 89% 91% 92% 91% 96% ELA exposure ( bn) 5.1 6.1 11.0 11.5 15.6 o/w Pillar exposure (nominal) 2 0 2.4 7.1 11.8 18.0 Profitability NIM (bps) 293 285 280 280 279 Cost / Core income 57% 56% 57% 64% 64% Asset quality NPE ratio 44.2% 45.8% 47.3% 46.8% 45.1% NPE coverage ratio 56.3% 54.3% 53.0% 52.8% 52.2% Cost of Risk (bps) 191 216 162 746 251 Capital CET1 phased-in 16.9% 1 16.8% 3 17.2% 4 17.5% 4 9.6% CET1 ratio CRD4 FL 16.3% 1 16.2% 3 16.7% 4 16.8% 4 8.8% RWAs ( bn) 40.2 1 40.5 3 40.4 4 40.3 4 60.7 1. Pro-forma for Astir Palace and CoCos repayment, 2. Pillar II zero as of July 2016 3. Pro-forma for Astir Palace, NBGI divestments and CoCos repayment 4. Pro forma for Astir Palace, NBGI divestments, Finansbank sale and CoCos repayment 13 Highlights
Liquidity 3
ELA has been reduced by 13b since June 2015 to just 4.5b currently Eurosystem funding ( b) Peer group analysis 1 : liquidity position (Group) 27.6 L:D ratio 89% 123% 144% 117% 23.6 25.6 24.0 22.8 ELA / Assets 2 6% 18% 24% 22% 15.4 14.2 13.9 17.6 15.6 11.5 11.0 14.9 4.8b in outstanding interbank repos 12.5 13.1 6.1 12.6 11.3 5.1 4.5 ELA 14.2 9.8 10.0 10.1 12.5 11.8 8.9 7.5 6.8 ECB ELA exposure ( b) 4.5 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Nov '16 NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 1. Latest available data 2. Excl. EFSF & ESM bonds 15 Liquidity
Domestic private deposit inflows + 0.3b in Q3, L:D ratio at 89% Deposit evolution by geography ( b) Greek deposit flows per quarter ( b) 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.3 SEE & Other 104% -0.9 Group Greece 96% 94% 97% 91% 90% 96% 92% 92% 91% 91% 91% 89% -2.2-4.8-3.6 Peers average domestic L:D ratio: 135% - 10.6 b + 0.5 b 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 16 Liquidity
Profitability 4
9M16 domestic Core PPI of 0.60b, +22% yoy; Q3 core operating margin at 54bps vs 49bps in 9M16 Group Core PPI decomposition by region ( m) Domestic Core PPI margin (bps) 723 YoY +16.6% 620 122 Core PPI margin 185 247 255 255 126-198 -231-201 49 24 54 Core operating margin 180 190 41 37 231 42 247 245 40 40 494 601 +21.6% CoR -1,071 139 153 189 207 205 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 9M15 9M16 9M15 9M16 1 2Q16 3Q16 GRE SEE & Other 18 Profitability
Domestic NII picks up qoq on the back of improving funding costs, offsetting deleveraging impact Group fees & insurance income ( m) Domestic NII breakdown 0.42% 0.50% 0.44% 0.47% 0.41% Fees 1 /Assets 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Loans 434 411 395 384 378 86 103 24 91 99 24 85 Deposits -80-69 -55-46 -44 Bonds 85 86 85 83 79 Eurosystem & wholesale -58-49 -40-36 -18 Subs & other 10 13 11 14 7 Total 389 392 396 400 403 Excludes + 9m funding cost savings qoq from reduced Pillar II exposure accounted for in fees 23 23 23 SEE & Other Domestic NII quarterly evolution ( m) 21 42 29 23 18 12 50 50 52 50 Insurance Greece 1 400-6 +2 +18-4 -7 403 Negatively affected by 7m due to repayment of the sub-debt extended to Finansbank 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 2Q16 Δloans Δdepos ΔEurosystem & wholesale ΔSecurities Subs & other 3Q16-53 -54-30 -15-6 Pillar 2 cost 1. Excl. Pillar fee charges 19 Profitability
Time deposit yields drop by another 10bps qoq, total deposit cost at 47bps Greek deposit yields (bps) Greek lending yields (bps) 185 934 956 953 947 947 163 132 113 103 Time 673 658 672 650 648 90 77 62 51 47 New production yield at 69 bps Total 421 420 421 417 414 25 24 24 20 20 Core 262 264 261 258 256 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 20 Profitability
Domestic 9M16 costs down by 3% yoy Group OpEx by category ( m) Domestic cost-to-core income evolution Greece Group 9M16 9M15 yoy 9M16 9M15 yoy Personnel 490 497-1.4% 594 598-0.7% 65% 63% G&As 185 198-6.9% 265 279-4.9% Depreciation 72 73-0.3% 88 90-2.0% 56% 55% 55% Total 747 768-2.7% 947 966-2.0% Domestic OpEx evolution ( m) 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Headcount evolution ( 000) 259 262 243 251 252 96 94 82 88 86 163 168 161 163 166 G&A & other Staff SEE & Other Greece 25.1 10.1 15.0 20.1 19.8 20.1 7.9 7.8 7.7 12.2 12.0 12.3 o/w: Astir: 0.5k Insurance: 0.8k 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 FY09 1 FY14 FY15 3Q16 21 Profitability
SEE contributes 79m in Group 9m PAT, +92% yoy Operating profit evolution ( m) SEE headline figures Operating profit 18 31 30 32 P&L items ( m) 3Q16 2Q16 qoq 9M16 9M15 yoy NII 82 83-1.2% 247 250-1.2% Core income 106 107-1.2% 321 324-0.8% OpEx (67) (67) -1.3% (200) (198) 0.6% 42 40-28 55 50 52 PPI 52 50 +3.6% 157 132 19.2% Provisions (20) (20) -1.5% (64) (79) -18.7% Operating profit 32 30 +5.0% 93 53 75.3% Net profit after min. 27 25 +7.2% 79 41 92.2% -23-24 -20-20 -68 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Pre-provision income Provisions Selective ratios 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 Liquidity L/D ratio 91% 92% 96% 97% 104% Profitability NIM (bps) 345 355 361 355 356 Cost / Core income 63% 63% 61% 66% 62% Asset quality 90dpd ratio 26.3% 26.5% 27.0% 26.8% 28.3% 90dpd coverage ratio 60.1% 59.1% 58.3% 57.4% 56.3% Cost of Risk (bps) 136 133 155 438 147 22 Profitability
Asset quality 5
On track to deliver NPE/NPL operational targets Parent NPE reduction targets (SSM perimeter) ( b) NPE operational targets are feasible -8.5 Operational targets submitted to the SSM call for a reduction of NPLs and NPEs by 7.4b and 8.5b corresponding to a reduction of NPEs 21.5 21.5 6.4 0.0 6.2-0.9 20.6 5.6-1.0 19.6 4.7 c.50% and 40% respectively Upon achieving these targets in 2019, NBG will have reduced its NPL and NPE ratios by ca.15ppts, with NPE coverage around the 50% mark NBG has already reduced NPEs by 1.9b ytd relative to a targeted NPLs 15.2 15.3 15.0 14.9 13.1 reduction throughout the forecast period of 8.5b -6.5 5.4 Remaining NPE reduction to 2019 at 6.5b ( b) 7.7 21.5-1.9 Target: -8.5-6.5 13.1 FY15 1 1Q16 2 2Q16 3 3Q16 4 FY19 FY15 Already achieved Remaining FY19 NPE reduction target 24 Asset quality
3.3b of FNPEs less than 30dpd constitute prime candidates for curing Domestic 90dpd ratios per segment Domestic 90dpd NPE bridge ( bn) 55% 63% SEE & other: 90dpd ratio: 26% Coverage: 60% 3.3 0.7 0.8 20.1 31% 95% 76% 27% 35% 34% 15.3 Cash coverage 42% 98% 75% 73% Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group 90dpd FNPE <30 FNPE 31-90 Other impaired NPEs Domestic NPE ratios and coverage per segment Domestic forborne stock breakdown ( bn) Collateral coverage 1 78% 8% 51% 53% 54% 64% 71% SEE & other: NPE ratio: 31% Coverage: 51% FPE 2.8 FNPE<30 dpd 3.3 41% 82% 67% 40% 46% 44% 9.9 Cash coverage 32% 65% 57% 56% Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group FNPE >90dpd 3.1 FNPE 31-90dpd 0.7 LLAs/ Gross loans 13% 53% 48% 26% 26% 1. Bank level 25 Asset quality
Domestic CoR drops by 30bps qoq to 201bps over net loans; Group CoR at 191bps Domestic 90dpd formation and provisions Peer Group analysis 3 : asset quality (Group) CoR 1 (bps) 406 271 329 164 231 201 232 Includes AQR 86 671 126 134 2 188 188 162 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 90dpd flows ( m) Provisions ( m) 6.9 7.5 8.5 5.4 TBV ( b) 4.4 8.2 7.3 6.1 Unprovided NPLs ( b) 0.7x 1.1x 0.9x 1.1x 34% 39% 38% 35% Texas ratio 2 90dpd ratio Domestic 90dpd restructuring flows ( m) 73% 68% 69% 66% Coverage ratio 812 510 609 381 358 NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 1. CoR (bps) adjusted for AQR charges, calculated on net loans 2. Texas Ratio: (NPLs-Provisions)/TBV 3. Peer comparison is based on latest available data 26 Asset quality
Domestic retail formation remains negative, new corporate NPLs already within the NPE perimeter Mortgages ( m) Consumer ( m) Total domestic 90dpd formation ( m) 122 76 406-32 -70-133 -117 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16-8 -22-26 -19 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 SBLs ( m) Corporate ( m) 188 35 10 173 246 260 106 280 86 126-3 -13 2-52 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 27 Asset quality
Capital 6
CET1 ratio at 16.9% 1, or 16.3% on a fully loaded basis CET 1 ratio Ordinary equity to CET 1 reconciliation ( bn) Excluding CoCos (+500bps) 9.1 8.8 CoCos 16.8% 16.9% 16.3% TBV: 6.9bn 2.0 0.2 2.0 7.1-0.1-0.3 6.8 Ordinary equity GW & intangibles Minority interest Other CET1 Peer Group analysis 2 : CET1 Capital ratios 3 DTC: 4.9b CET1: 6.8bn CET1: 6.8bn CET1: 6.6bn Phased-in 16.9% 13.7% 16.6% 14.9% 2Q16 3Q16 CRD 4 fully loaded Fully loaded 16.3% 12.8% 16.2% 13.8% RWAs ( bn) 40.5 40.2 40.2 NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 1. Pro-forma for Astir Palace and CoCos repayment 2. Peer comparison is based on latest available data 3. Excl. CoCos and State prefs. 29 Capital
Macro 7
Q1:2016 Q2:2016 Q3:2016 Q4:2016 Q1:2017 Q2:2017 H2:2008 H1:2009 H2:2009 H1:2010 H2:2010 H1:2011 H2:2011 H1:2012 H2:2012 H1:2013 H2:2013 H1:2014 H2:2014 H1:2015 H2:2015 H1:2016 Q3:2016 Q3:2011 Q1:2012 Q3:2012 Q1:2013 Q3:2013 Q1:2014 Q3:2014 Q1:2015 Q3:2015 Q1:2016 Q3:2016 Aug-08 Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 The Greek economy comes out of recession in Q3:2016, supported by official funding; labor market conditions improve; and the decline in property prices abates GDP growth (y-o-y and q-o-q) Unemployment rate and employment growth 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 % 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 +0.5% s.a. q-o-q,.& +1.5% y-o-y in Q3:16 6 2-2 -6-10 y-o-y % 25 20 15 10 5 0 GDP (q-o-q, s.a., right axis) GDP growth (y-o-y, s.a., left axis) Employment growth (left axis) Unemployment rate (right axis) Greece Gov. arrears clearance and public investment Real estate prices (y-o-y) 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 as % of GDP forecasts 4 0-4 -8-12 -16 y-o-y -1,5% 4 0-4 -8-12 -16 Payments for arrears clearance (incl. tax refunds, % GDP) Public investment budget expenditure (% GDP) Office prices (Athens, y-o-y) House prices (total, y-o-y) Retail prices (Athens, y-o-y) Source: EL.STAT., Greek MinFin, EU Commission, Bank of Greece 31
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 An increase in exports provides a boost to healthy corporate activity and business sentiment Goods and services exports (y-o-y) Manufacturing production and capacity utilization 60 45 30 15 0-15 -30-45 -60 Capital controls 20 10 0-10 -20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 % index 75 70 65 60 Transportation (y-o-y, 3m m.a., left axis) Other services (y-o-y, 3m m.a., left axis) Tourism receipts (y-o-y, 12m m.a., right axis) Exports of goods (excl. oil, y-o-y, 3m m.a., right axis) Current account balance - (% GDP) Capacity utilization (right axis) Manufacturing production (y-o-y, 3m m.a., left axis) Greece - Business confidence indicators 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0-1,5-2,0-2,5-3,0 cumulative as % GDP surplus deficit 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0-1,5-2,0-2,5-3,0 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 5-5 -15-25 -35-45 -55-65 -75-85 2014 2015 2016 Industrial (left axis) Retail (left axis) Services (left axis) Construction (right axis) Source: EL.STAT., Bank of Greece, EU Commission 32
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 mid Nov-16 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 forecasts Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 The fiscal adjustment remains credible, and a swift completion of the 2 nd review of the program -- along with the phasing-in of short-term debt relief measures -- will support the recovery State budget primary balance (% GDP) Gen. Government: revenue and primary expenditure 3 1-1 -3-5 -7-9 surplus deficit excluding SMP & ANFA revenue % GDP 3 1-1 -3-5 -7-9 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 as % of GDP, 12m m.a. 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Gen. Government net revenue Gen. Government primary expenditure GDP growth forecasts (y-o-y change) 10-year government bond spreads over bund 3 1-1 -3-5 -7-9 % -0,1 2,7 3,1 2,8 2,4 25 20 15 10 5 % 1st Review completion, ECB waiver reinstatement, Brexit 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 GDP growth (y-o-y, s.a.) GDP growth forecasts (IMF & EU Commission average) Greece Portugal Italy Source: EL.STAT., Greek MinFin, EU Commission, IMF, Bloomberg, 33
Appendix 8
Group Balance Sheet & P&L Balance Sheet Group P&L Group m 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 Cash & Reserves 1 998 1 974 1 873 2 208 1 982 Interbank placements 2 881 2 909 2 753 2 799 2 788 Securities 23 106 24 187 25 337 24 852 22 233 Loans (Gross) 50 430 51 133 51 512 51 969 52 477 Provisions (12 540) (12 712) (12 909) (12 843) (12 357) Goodwill & intangibles 140 143 142 147 259 Tangible assets 1 306 1 311 1 315 1 325 1 384 DTA 5 081 5 087 5 093 5 096 5 104 Other assets 9 137 9 143 8 686 7 912 8 089 Assets held for sale 203 742 27 941 27 767 28 580 Total assets 81 742 83 916 111 743 111 232 110 538 Interbank liabilities 17 799 20 278 25 003 25 166 26 948 Due to customers 42 567 42 184 42 047 42 959 41 890 Debt securities 1 517 1 276 1 279 1 252 1 960 Other liabilities 10 041 10 113 9 621 8 387 8 836 Hybrids - - - - 83 Liabilities held for sale 11 301 23 931 23 643 23 555 Minorities 708 701 735 725 724 Equity 9 099 9 064 9 128 9 100 6 543 Total liabilities and equity 81 742 83 916 111 743 111 232 110 538 m 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 NII 485 482 479 474 472 Net fees 67 61 43 21 13 Insurance income 12 23 18 29 21 Core Income 563 567 540 524 506 Trading & other income (13) (43) (6) 108 (178) Income 551 524 534 632 328 Operating Expenses (318) (319) (309) (333) (325) Core Pre-Provision Income 245 247 231 190 180 Pre-Provision Income 232 205 225 298 3 Provisions (182) (208) (158) (739) (256) Operating Profit 51 (3) 67 (441) (253) Other impairments (20) (12) (34) (247) (51) PBT 31 (15) 33 (688) (304) Taxes (8) (9) (7) (62) 518 PAT (cont. ops) 23 (23) 26 (750) 214 PAT (discount. ops) - (3 028) 71 (1 160) (595) Minorities (7) (10) (10) (2) (12) Other one-offs - - - (138) (9) Attributable PAT 16 (3 062) 87 (2 050) (401) Group attributable income includes a loss of 3,095m which reflects the recycling of losses recognized in other comprehensive income in previous periods and relates mainly to foreign currency translation differences from the translation of Finansbank s assets and liabilities in Euro, in accordance with IFRS. This loss has already been recognized in the Group s equity and CET1 capital in prior periods, therefore has no impact on the Group s equity and CET1 capital in Q2.16 35 Appendix
Regional P&L: Greece, SEE & other Greece SEE & Other m 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 NII 403 400 396 392 389 Net fees 44 37 20 (3) (10) Insurance income 10 22 16 26 19 Core Income 457 459 432 415 398 Trading & other income (25) (52) (19) 105 (178) Income 432 407 413 520 219 Operating Expenses (252) (252) (243) (262) (259) Core Pre-Provision Income 205 207 189 153 139 Pre-Provision Income 181 155 170 258 (39) Provisions (162) (188) (134) (671) (232) Operating Profit 19 (33) 35 (413) (271) Other impairments (20) (10) (34) (242) (51) PBT (1) (44) 2 (655) (322) Taxes (4) (5) (3) (62) 521 PAT (5) (49) (1) (717) 199 m 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 NII 82 83 83 82 83 Net fees 23 24 23 24 23 Insurance income 1 1 2 3 2 Core Income 106 107 108 109 108 Trading & other income 13 10 13 3 1 Income 118 118 121 112 109 Operating Expenses (67) (67) (66) (72) (67) Core Pre-Provision Income 40 40 42 37 41 Pre-Provision Income 52 50 55 40 42 Provisions (20) (20) (24) (68) (23) Operating Profit 32 30 31 (28) 18 Other impairments (1) (1) (0) (5) (1) PBT 31 29 31 (33) 18 Taxes (4) (3) (4) (0) (2) PAT 28 26 27 (33) 15 36 Appendix
IR contact details Greg Papagrigoris Anthony Kouleimanis Maria Kanellopoulou Ilias Katsikalis Head of IR Investor Relations Investor Relations Investor Relations +30210 334 2310 papagrigoris.gr@nbg.gr +30210 334 3037 akouleimanis@nbg.gr +30210 334 1537 mkanellopoulou@nbg.gr +30210 334 1401 katsikalis.ilias@nbg.gr ir@nbg.gr ir@nbg.gr ir@nbg.gr ir@nbg.gr This presentation is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. No part of this presentation may be construed as constituting investment advice or recommendation to enter into any transaction. No representation or warranty is given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation, and no claim is made that any future to transact any securities will conform to any terms that may be contained herein. Before entering into any transaction, investors should determine any economic risks and benefits, as well as any legal, tax, accounting consequences of doing so, as well as their ability to assume such risks, without reliance on the information contained in this presentation.