Malaysia Flash Note Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research. Equity 11 Apr 2017 Malaysia Automotive Analyst Siti Ruzanna MOHD FARUK +603 2604 3965; sruzannamf@alliancedbs.com duty up Customs Department announces a 5% hike in excise duty for MPV and SUV (up to 1.5 litres) expect the others to follow suit and pass on the extra cost to customers. Brands affected are Perodua, Proton, Toyota and Honda Maintain our calls for stocks under the Auto sector What s New Customs Department raises excise duty by 5%. According to the new Federal Government Gazette on Order 2017, the excise duty for multi-purpose vehicles (MPV) and sports utility vehicles (SUV) with engine capacity of up to 1.5 litres is now at 65% (previously 60%) effective April 1, 2017. The Duty Order 2017 stated that the duty would be levied on both manufacturers and importers. Perodua, Proton, Toyota and Honda affected. Among vehicles affected are the Perodua Alza, Proton Ertiga, Toyota Avanza, Toyota Sienta and Honda BR-V. Passing down the increased costs to customers will see an upwards revision in pricing. As of now, only Toyota has revised its car prices as shown in the table below. There has been no announcement from Perodua, Proton and Honda yet. We This will further pressure sales volumes which have been weighed down by the weak consumer sentiment. TIV for YTD February 2017 came in at 87,122 units (+5.6% y-o-y). Out of this, 15.3% is contributed by the MPV segment. As for the brands, the MPV segment makes up about 16% (1,718 units) for Toyota, 27% (4,385 units) for Honda, 14% (4,436 units) for Perodua and 17% (2,208 units) for Proton. We believe volumes may continue to be pressured by the weak consumer sentiment and forecast a minimal TIV growth of 2.0% for FY17F. This is in line with Malaysian Automotive Association's (MAA) forecast of 1.7% growth for FY17F. Maintain HOLD call on all auto stocks under our coverage. We maintain our HOLD calls on UMW (TP: RM5.30), BAUTO (TP: RM2.25) and MBM (TP: RM1.85). We believe the sector lacks a catalyst and may continue to be weighed down by low volume growth and margin compression. The re-rating of auto stocks can only arise from improvement in consumer sentiment and better foreign exchange rates. Price revision in Toyota models Toyota Model Pre-hike price (RM) Post-hike price (RM) Increase (RM) Increase (%) Toyota Avanza 1.5G AT 81,670 84,980 3,310 4.1% Toyota Avanza 1.3E MT 72,280 75,980 3,700 5.1% Toyota Sienta 1.5G 92,900 96,900 4,000 4.3% Toyota Sienta 1.5V 99,900 103,900 4,000 4.0% Toyota Avanza 1.5S AT 83,980 87,980 4,000 4.8% Toyota Avanza 1.5E AT 78,970 82,980 4,010 5.1% Toyota Rush 1.5G MT 104,910 109,900 4,990 4.8% Toyota Rush 1.5S AT 109,900 115,900 6,000 5.5% Toyota Rush 1.5G AT 106,900 112,910 6,010 5.6% Source: Company, AllianceDBS ed: TH / sa:bc, PY
Revised duty structure on motor vehicles Engine Capacity (cc) Motor cars (Including Station Wagons, Sports Car and Racing Cars) < 1,800 30% 0% 10% 0% 75% 6% 1,800-1,999 30% 0% 10% 0% 80% 6% 2,000-2,499 30% 0% 10% 0% 90% 6% Above 2,500 30% 0% 10% 0% 105% 6% Engine Capacity (cc) Four Wheel Drive Vehicles < 1,800 30% 0% 10% 0% 65% 6% 1,800-1,999 30% 0% 10% 0% 75% 6% 2,000-2,499 30% 0% 10% 0% 90% 6% Above 2,500 30% 0% 10% 0% 105% 6% Engine Capacity (cc) s (MPV & Van) < 1,500 30% 0% NIL 0% 65% 6% 1,500-1,799 30% 0% 10% 0% 65% 6% 1,800-1,999 30% 0% 10% 0% 75% 6% 2,000-2,499 30% 0% 10% 0% 90% 6% Above 2,500 30% 0% 10% 0% 105% 6% Class Commercial Vehicles All 30% 0% NIL 0% NIL 6% Source: Customs Department, AllianceDBS Page 2
AllianceDBS recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame) Share price appreciation + dividends Completed Date: 10 Apr 2017 15:39:15 (MYT) Dissemination Date: 11 Apr 2017 07:59:47 (MYT) GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd (''AllianceDBS''). 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