Aggregate Output Consequences of Business Fluctuations Parts of Chapter 14 + Other Issues Discussion Topics Fluctuations in business activity Consequences of business fluctuations Macroeconomic policy options Four Phases of a Business Cycle Peak Peak Trough Trough Length of cycles varies over time Time 1
Causes of Business Cycles Keynesian equilibrium levels differ from full employment - changes to get to full employment gives rise to the cycles Exogenous shocks wars, credit crunch etc. Technological shocks - lumpy changes that increase productivity Political elect different administrations with different policy goals Indicators of Economic Activity Lagging indicators - business inventories, duration of employment, average interest rate Coincident indicators - current production, current disposable income, current sales Leading indicators - new orders for goods, new building permits, new investment in plant and equipment, changes in the money supply Forecasting models - mathematical methods of forecasting future trends in the economy Leading Economic Indicators Conference Board Components 2009 Weight / Factor Average weekly hours, manufacturing 0.2549 Average weekly claims, unemployment insurance 0.0307 Manufacturers new orders, consumer goods and materials 0.0774 Index of supplier deliveries vendor performance 0.0677 Building permits, new private housing units 0.0270 Stock prices, 500 common stocks 0.0390 Money Supply, M2 0.3580 Interest rate spread, 10-year treasury bonds less federal funds 0.0991 Index of consumer expectations 0.0282 Manufacturers new orders, non-defense capital goods 0.0180 http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/bci/flaky.pdf 2
Leading Economic Indicators Conference Board Components 2017 Weight / Factor Average weekly hours, manufacturing 0.2774 Average weekly claims, unemployment insurance 0.0330 Manufacturers new orders, consumer goods and materials 0.0821 Index of supplier deliveries vendor performance 0.1587 Building permits, new private housing units 0.0298 Stock prices, 500 common stocks 0.0397 Leading Credit Index 0.0818 Interest rate spread, 10-year treasury bonds less federal funds 0.1123 Index of consumer expectations 0.1447 Note replaced money supply in 2012 with an index on interest rates S&D. http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/bci/flaky.pdf How it is Supposed to Work Actual activity several months later Indicator index A classical example of a leading indicator http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1 3
Most Recent Notice Downturn Sept. http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1 Consequences of Business Fluctuations Fluctuations in the unemployment rate (civilian and capital) and implications for policy Fluctuations in the rate of inflation and implications for policy Monthly Unemployment Jan. 1948 October 2017 Unemployment rate during the great depression was 25% Full employment barometer? 4
Monthly Unemployment U.S., Texas, and B/CS 1976 Sept. 2015 Texas lagging at the recovery? Texas lagged at the start of the recession Calculation of Civilian Unemployment Rate Rate = Number of civilians unemployed Size of total civilian labor force where the size of the total civilian labor force is determined by subtracting those not seeking jobs (homemakers, students, etc.) from the total noninstitutional population (those not in prison) over 16 years of age, as well as, those who are in military service. Example Oct. 2009 Assume the following values Civilian labor force 1 153.975 million Employed persons 138.275 million Unemployment 15.700 million Not in force 82.316 million Rate = 15.700 153.975 =.102 or10.2 percent 1 The civilian labor force equals total population minus those not seeking employment over age 16, those in institutions, and the military. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm 5
October 2009 Unemployment Rates March 2011 March 2013 March 2015 March 2017 Oct. 2071 All Workers 16+ 9 9.2 7.6 5.6 4.6 3.9 Adult men 7.3 10.2 8 6 4.9 3.9 Adult women 7.3 8 7.2 5.1 4.1 3.8 Teenagers 16-19 21.5 23.6 23.3 17 13.1 13.4 White 8.5 5.3 6.9 4.9 4 3.3 Black / African American 13.5 15.5 12.8 10 9.1 7.5 Hispanic or Latino 12.2 11.9 9.5 7 5.2 4.6 Earnings Seasonally adjusted Private Workers Oct-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-17 Oct.-17 Average hours of work /week 33.8 34.3 34.5 34.5 34.3 34.4 Average hourly earnings 22.06 22.87 23.8 24.85 26.13 26.53 Average weekly earnings 745.63 784.44 821.1 857.33 896.26 912.63 Forms of Unemployment Frictional - changing jobs and currently unemployed Cyclical - associated with business cycles Seasonal - associated with seasonal business activity Structural - associated with technological change 6
Monthly U.S. Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity Jan. 1985 Aug. 2017 Currently at 92.8 Hurricane Rita Hurricane Ike Decreased from 92 to 81 Dec 2013 Feb. 2013 What is Inflation? Sustained rise in the general price level Not a change in the price of a single commodity Core rate of inflation excludes fuel and food price increases Deflation (prices falling) vs. disinflation (prices increasing at a slower rate) CPI Index Consumer Price Index (CPI) CPI - represents changes in prices of all goods and services purchased for consumption by urban households Weighted basket of goods Food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and communication, and other goods and services http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ 7
Components / Weights in CPI 2016 Food and Beverages 14.649 Housing 42.634 Apparel 3.034 Transportation 15.318 Medical Care 8.539 Recreation 5.663 Education and communication 6.984 Other Goods and Services 3.178 https://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiri_2016.pdf Example Sub Category Weights Measuring the CPI The consumer price index is a weighted average of the prices consumers pay for goods and services. It is measured by: Cost of market basket in current year CPI = 100 Cost of market basket in base year Cost current year Cost = W FB (P FB ) + W H (P H ) + + W OTHER (P OTHER ) = 15.757(P FB ) + 43.421(P H ) + + 3.386(P OTHER ) Weights 8
Grade Calculations A) Total points = 600 possible = HW + clicker + tests + final + bonus points B) HW 175 points = (sum of HW points / 429) * 175 = number out of 175 Note the value of 429 includes all possible HW C) Clicker points = 75 possible = (sum of clicker points / 95.75)*75 - based on values up to the start of class today will change as we have more clicker questions D) Test points = 200 possible = two highest test scores E) Final 150 points CURRENTLY YOU HAVE ZERO POINTS F) Bonus points added to total points = 10 possible = 5 each for out of class videos G) Up to you to check for missing / problems with grades by Friday e-mail: j-mjelde@tamu.edu A) We reserve the right to correct errors Calculating Rates of Inflation The rate of inflation can be measured by the percent change in the CPI, or Inflation rate = current CPI previous CPI previous CPI If the CPI was 216.17 in the last half of 2008 and 213.139 in the first half of 2009 what was the rate of inflation rate = (213.139 216.177) 216.1779 = -0.014 or -1.4% Calculating Rates of Inflation Year CPI Inflation rate 2005 195.300 --- 2006 201.600 = (201.6 195.3) / 195.3 = 0.0323 = 3.23% 2007 207.342 = (207.342-201.600) / 201.600 = 0.0285 = 2.85% 2008 215.303 =(215.303 207.342) / 207.342 = 0.0384 = 3.84% 9
Annual Rates 1913-2016 Inflation thought to be under control in this range. FED 2012 long run goal is 2% Brought about a major monetary policy action CPI and Core Index Quarterly Red line core some differences mainly less variability When describing growth in the economy on the nightly newscast, the newscaster will refer to the growth in real GDP after adjustments for inflation. In the above example, real GDP grew over the 1992-1999 period, but not at the rate implied by comparisons in nominal terms. 10
GDP nominal rate of increase = (86-60)/60 *100 = 43% GDP real rate of increase = (69-60)/60 *100 = 15% Difference is because of inflation and not an increase in productivity Nominal and Real Growth GDP Annual 1929-2016 W.E. Phillips New Zealand Economist Educated at London School of Economics Phillips curve and MONIAC Early career Crocodile hunter and cinema manager Studied electrical engineering before the war WWII Singapore and than Java Captured learned Chinese, repaired and miniaturized a secret radio, fashioned a secret water boiler for tea which hooked into camp lighting system 11
Price Level Price Level Unemployment Rate Phillips Curve Phillips curve named after British economist A. W. Phillips 9% 4% Policies that reduce unemployment may increase inflation in the short run, and vice versa 3% 6% Inflation Rate Demand Pull Inflation P 1 P 0 AD 0 AD 1 Y 0 Y 1 Y FE AS Inflation rate (P 1 P 0 ) P 0 Aggregate Output Y POT Demand oriented policies that shift the aggregate demand curve from AD 0 to AD 1 pull up the general price level from P 0 to P 1. This small increase in inflation may make sense since output increased from Y 0 to Y 1, which would lower unemployment. Demand Pull Inflation and Unemployment P 3 P 1 P 0 AD 0 AD 1 AD 3 AS Demand oriented policies to maximize output at the economy s potential or Y POT may bring about a substantial increase in the general price level (and hence rate of inflation) for a relatively small gain in output and employment. Inflation rate (P 3 P 1 ) P 1 Y 0 Y Y FE Y 1 POT Aggregate Output Inflationary gap Created Y E = Y POT > Y FE 12
Price Level Price Level Price Level Price Level Cost Push Inflation and Unemployment P 1 P 0 AD 0 AS 1 AS 0 Increase in the cost of production thus a decrease is AS 0 to AS 1 may bring about an increase in the general price level (and hence rate of inflation) and a decrease in output and employment. Y 1 Y 0 Inflation rate Aggregate Output (P 1 P 0 ) P 0 Supply Side Normal Range AD 0 AS 0 AS 1 Supply oriented policies that enhance productivity reduce the general price level. P 0 Stimulates Y as with demand side policies P 1 Y 0 Y 1 Y FE Inflation rate (P 1 P 0 ) P 0 Aggregate Output Policies See production Research / Development Technology Infrastructure Subsidies Tax rates on business Demand vs. Supply Policies Demand expansion policy pulls up the general price level. Supply expansion policy reduces the general price level AD 1 AS 0 AS 0 AS 1 AD 0 AD 0 P 1 P 0 P 0 P 1 Y 0 Y 1 Y FE Aggregate Output Both demand and supply oriented policies stimulate aggregate output. Y 0 Y 1 Y FE Aggregate Output 13
Price Level Demand vs. Supply Policies AD 1 AS 0 AS 1 In reality, both forms of policy are typically carried out at the same time. AD 0 P 1 P 0 New Equilibrium Change in price levels depends on the shifts in the two curves New Y FE Y 0 Y 1 Y FE Y FE - new Aggregate Output Summary A business cycle has four phases: peak, recession, trough and expansion The two major consequences of business fluctuations are unemployment and inflation Know how to calculate the civilian unemployment rate and the rate of inflation facing consumers Understand the nature of the index of leading economic indicators Understand the concept graphing of demand pull inflation Understand the Phillips curve and demand and supply policy impacts 14