Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P 500/400/600 May 17, Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P 500 Earnings 3 S&P 400 Earnings 4 S&P 600 Earnings 5 S&P 500/400/600 Earnings & P/Es 6 S&P 500 Revenues & Profit Margin 7 May 17, / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P 500/400/600 www.
140 0 0 Figure 1. S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) - S&P 500 Earnings - 140 0 0 0 0 5/ 0 0 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 50 * Time-weighted average of the current year s and next year s consensus earnings estimates. 32 31 Figure 2. S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS* (weekly, analysts average forecasts in dollars) 32 31 30 By Quarter as of 05// 30 29 28 Q4 29 28 27 Q3 27 26 Q2 Q1 26 24 24 23 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun * Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown. 23 Page 3 / May 17, / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P 500/400/600 www.
95 85 75 65 Figure 3. S&P 400 MIDCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) - S&P 400 Earnings - 5/ 95 85 75 65 55 55 45 45 35 35 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 * Time-weighted average of the current year s and next year s consensus earnings estimates. 21 19 Figure 4. S&P 400 MIDCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS* (weekly, analysts average forecasts in dollars) By Quarter as of 05// 21 19 18 17 Q4 Q3 18 17 16 15 Q2 16 15 14 Q1 14 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun * Consensus expected S&P 400 MidCap operating earnings per share for each quarter shown. Page 4 / May 17, / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P 500/400/600 www.
35 30 Figure 5. - S&P 600 Earnings - S&P 600 SMALLCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 5/ 35 30 15 15 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 * Time-weighted average of the current year s and next year s consensus earnings estimates. 9.0 8.5 Figure 6. S&P 600 SMALLCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS* (weekly, analysts average forecasts in dollars) 9.0 8.5 8.0 Q4 8.0 7.5 7.0 Q3 7.5 7.0 6.5 Q2 Q1 6.5 6.0 By Quarter as of 05// 6.0 5.5 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun * Consensus expected S&P 600 SmallCap operating earnings per share for each quarter shown. 5.5 Page 5 / May 17, / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P 500/400/600 www.
3 300 280 260 240 Figure 7. - S&P 500/400/600 Earnings & P/Es - S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD EARNINGS (weekly, Jan 1999=0) Forward Earnings* S&P 500 LargeCap (215.2) S&P 400 MidCap (317.4) S&P 600 SmallCap (297.8) 3 300 280 260 240 2 0 180 160 140 0 0 80 1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 5/ 2 0 180 160 140 0 0 80 * 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of the current year s and next year s consensus forecast. 28 26 Figure 8. P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES* (weekly) 28 26 24 24 22 22 18 18 16 14 5/ 16 14 8 S&P 500 LargeCap (.2) S&P 400 MidCap (14.2) S&P 600 SmallCap (14.8) 1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 8 * Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Page 6 / May 17, / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P 500/400/600 www.
00 Figure 9. - S&P 500 Revenues & Profit Margin - S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts) 00 50 50 00 Revenues fell in May due to change in index constituents and divisor. 5/ 00 50 50 00 00 950 950 900 06 07 08 09 900 * Time-weighted average of the current year s and next year s consensus sales estimates. Figure. S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) 5/ 9 Margins rose in May due to change in index constituents and divisor. 9 8 8 7 7 6 06 07 08 09 6 * Time-weighted average of the current year s and next year s consensus estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. Page 7 / May 17, / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P 500/400/600 www.
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